hnojiva jsou dobra, kdo nesouhlasi, je blb


Population's cadmium overexposure requires urgent action, French food agency tells government
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/france/article/2026/03/25/population-s-cadmium-overexposure-requires-urgent-action-french-food-agency-tells-government_6751800_7.html

Immediate measures must be taken to reduce the French population's dietary exposure to cadmium, France's National Agency for Food Safety (ANSES) has alerted. In a report published on Wednesday, March 25, the agency confirms that a "significant proportion" of the French population is exposed to "preoccupying" levels.

ANSES urged the government to "act at the source" by lowering "as soon as possible" the legal limits for cadmium in fertilizing materials, and particularly in phosphate fertilizers, which are heavily used in French agriculture. That is the only way to control the pollution of agricultural soils, the contamination of foods, and ultimately to reduce cadmium levels in the population, the agency insisted.

az 2030, tak nohy hore



Our National Food Security is at Risk - by Rupert Read
https://rupertsreads.substack.com/p/our-national-food-security-is-at

The contents of a secret U.K. Govt report on Britain’s ‘critical systems’ and their grave vulnerability have just been made public by The Times and The Sunday Times.

The report was stark in its findings:

“Britain’s food security…could be “at strategic risk of catastrophic failure” by 2030”.

Food was only one of the critical systems analysed in the report, and found to be at risk of collapse from the end of the decade, >unless< collectively we change course to a safer, more resilient path.

TADEAS:

Energy shock talk grabs headlines but the Iran war is also driving the world towards a food crisis | Heather Stewart | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/mar/22/energy-shock-iran-war-also-driving-world-towards-food-crisis

P Worms
https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1AmdTujaWZ/

There's been much discussion of the impact on energy systems of the closure of the Persian Gulf, but rather less than I would have expected of the - to my mind - more alarming impact on several kinds of fertiliser and other feedstocks of the global food system. Without going into details, modelling suggests that will throw several hundred million more people into food insecurity.

Crops need fertility to grow, and in the usual industrial farming systems that dominate the planet, those fertilisers must come from fossil fuels (my tribe of agroecologists has long shown that different production systems can generate more food while damaging soil and biodiversity less with only a fraction of those inputs, yet here we are - the reasons why is a discussion for another day). But plants also need water, and here this year, the problems linked to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz risk being compounded by a phenomenon called El Niño. This redistributes heat from the Western to the eastern Pacific that is then released to the atmosphere, creating a warming pulse that leads to drought conditions across much of the world and weaker monsoons in places like India.

On top of that, there is rising evidence that the climate forcing - i.e. the amount of global heating we get from a doubling of CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere - has been seriously underestimated over the past decades: instead of being about 2-3°C, it's more in the region of 4-5°C (the paper i'm sharing here details the reasons).

That higher forcing is a problem for the medium term.. But in the short term, the climate system through El Niño willi amplify the horrors about to be unleashed on the food system by Trump’s war of choice.


Super El Nino? Super Warming is the Main Issue.
https://jimehansen.substack.com/p/super-el-nino-super-warming-is-the

Prej dobry, mame buffer

...

*Half* of the food produced in the world each year is not consumed by people.

Croplands already produce enough calories to support about 14.5 billion people, nearly double today’s population.

But half is lost to feed for factory farmed livestock, biofuels, or lost throughout the supply chain.

[In America the figure is a truly grotesque 77% of food not consumed by people.]

And we're told that rewilding marginal land poses a threat to food security!

Half the world’s food never feeds people — In America, it’s far worse | One Earth
https://www.oneearth.org/half-the-worlds-food-never-feeds-people-in-america-its-far-worse/

but... robots&datacenters

Planetary Solvency – finding our balance with nature
https://actuaries.org.uk/planetary-solvency

The global economy could face a 50% loss in GDP between 2070 and 2090, unless immediate policy action on risks posed by the climate crisis is taken. Populations are already impacted by food system shocks, water insecurity, heat stress and infectious diseases. If unchecked, mass mortality, mass displacement, severe economic contraction and conflict become more likely.

‘Planetary Solvency – finding our balance with nature’ is the IFoA’s fourth report in collaboration with climate scientists. The report develops a framework for global risk management to address these risks and show how this approach can support future prosperity. It also shows how a lack of realistic risk messaging to guide policy decisions has led to slower action than is needed.

The report proposes a novel Planetary Solvency risk dashboard, to provide decision-useful risk information to support policymakers to drive human activity within the finite bounds of the planet that we live on.

R Hallam

Isn't this also treason - only publish a "partial" version of a report of the greatest ever threat to the UK state? Again - just saying - obviously people will say in 2026 calling it treason is bonkers, but then in 2036 won't people be saying it's bonkers that anyone cannot see that it is treason?
"On that, the UK’s Joint Intelligence Committee, on which heads of MI5 and MI6 sit, would surely agree. Last month, a partial version of its national security assessment of global biodiversity loss was published, and it came with a stark warning: some ecosystems will start to collapse “by 2030 or sooner”, posing an immediate threat to national security, prosperity, food systems and public health. There won’t be enough water for people to drink or food to eat; livelihoods will be lost; displacement and migration will accelerate, and geopolitical competition for resources will intensify."

Biodiversity collapse threatens UK security, intelligence chiefs warn | Biodiversity | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/jan/20/biodiversity-collapse-threatens-uk-security-intelligence-chiefs-warn

Global biodiversity loss, ecosystem collapseand national security - A national security assessment

Nature security assessment on global biodiversity loss, ecosystem collapse and national security - GOV.UK
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/nature-security-assessment-on-global-biodiversity-loss-ecosystem-collapse-and-national-security

This assessment is an analysis of how global biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse could affect UK national security.

It shows how environmental degradation can disrupt food, water, health and supply chains, and trigger wider geopolitical instability. It identifies 6 ecosystems of strategic importance for the UK and explores how their decline could drive cascading global impacts.

This assessment, which was developed by analysts and experts across HM Government, supports long-term resilience planning. Publishing the assessment highlights opportunities for innovation, green finance and global partnerships that can drive growth while safeguarding the ecosystems that underpin our collective security and prosperity.

Science of Superforecasting - Global Warming Rise: we blew past 1.5C, how about 2C, 2.5C, to 4C?
https://youtu.be/JxE6XFKOaRM?si=mBQ30943n5zCpOgS


We already passed 1.5C - happened, in last few years

When do we pass 2.0C. Group spread is 2034 to 2039 with mean of 2037. Beckwith guess 2033.

How about 2.5C. Group spread is 2044 to 2052 with mean of 2048. Beckwith guess is 2041.

OK, what about passing 3.0C. Group spread is 2054 to 2065 with mean of 2060. Beckwith superforecast is 2050.

Anybody for 3.5C. Group spread is 2065 to 2077 with mean of 2072. Beckwith guess is 2058.

Finally, when will we cross 4.0C. Group spread is 2075 to 2090 with mean of 2084. Beckwith guess is 2066.

Of course, a supervolcano (natural or induced:) will negate all this since humanity likes to eat food...

‘Borrowed time’: crop pests and food losses supercharged by climate crisis | Food security | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2025/dec/20/crop-pests-food-losses-climate-crisis

The destruction of food supplies by crop pests is being supercharged by the climate crisis, with losses expected to surge, an analysis has concluded.

Researchers said the world was lucky to have so far avoided a major shock and was living on borrowed time, with action needed to diversify crops and boost natural predators of pests.

The key global crops, wheat, rice and maize, are expected to see the losses to pests increase by about 46%, 19% and 31% respectively when global heating reaches 2C, the scientists said.

Global heating is helping insects such as aphids, planthoppers, stem borers, caterpillars and locusts thrive. Greater warmth enables pests to develop faster, produce more generations each year and attack crops for longer as winters shorten. Rising temperatures are also helping pests invade places further from the equator and on higher ground that were previously too cold.

As a result, the climate-driven flourishing of pests will be worst in temperate places, such as Europe and the US, the researchers said. Temperatures may have already hit a limit for some insects in the tropics, they said, although the cutting of croplands into tropical forests is supporting more pests.

CHOSIE: Co je zajímavé je to, že ve scénářích kde je více dostupných zdrojů, je to nakonec právě znečištění, které hraje velkou roli.

Scenario 8: World Seeks Stable Population and Stable Industrial Output per Person from 2002
If the model society both adopts a desired family size of 2 children and sets a fixed goal for industrial output per capita, it can extend somewhat the “golden period” of fairly high human welfare between 2020 and 2040 in Scenario 7. But pollution increasingly stresses agricultural resources. Per capita food production declines, eventually bringing down life expectancy and population.

CHOSIE: Tady je vidět ta prodleva, také to nepočítá s tím, že by průmyslová aktivita úplně zmizela, jinak další může být i využití půdy a její eroze, další zdroj zneštění, který lze udržovat i bez průmyslové civilizace. Příkladem ještě dodám plasty, ~50% všech plastů bylo vyrobeno za posledních 30 let, bude trvat hodně dlouho než všechny degradují natolik, že je bude možné považovat za znečištění.

A tady je popis a grafy k modelaci W3 scénář 1:

Scenario 1: A Reference Point
The world society proceeds in a traditional manner without any major deviation from the policies pur-
sued during most of the twentieth century. Population and production increase until growth is halted by
increasingly inaccessible nonrenewable resources. Ever more investment is required to maintain resource
flows. Finally, lack of investment funds in the other sectors of the economy leads to declining output of
both industrial goods and services. As they fall, food and health services are reduced, decreasing life
expectancy and raising average death rates.

Scenario 1, show the behavior of World3 when it is run “as is,” with numbers we consider a “realistic” description of the situation as it appeared on average during the latter part of the twentieth century, with no unusual technical or policy assumptions. In 1972 we called it the “standard run.” We did not consider it to be the most probable future, and we certainly didn’t present it as a prediction. It was just a place to start, a base for comparison.

In Scenario 1 the society proceeds along a very traditional path as long as possible without major policy change. It traces the broad outline of history as we know it throughout the twentieth century. The output of food, industrial goods, and social services increases in response to obvious needs and subject to the availability of capital. There is no extraordinary effort,beyond what makes immediate economic sense, to abate pollution, conserve resources, or protect the land.

The population in Scenario 1 rises from 1.6 billion in the simulated year 1900 to 6 billion in the year 2000 and more than 7 billion by 2030. Total industrial output expands by a factor of almost 30 between 1900 and 2000 and then by 10 percent more by 2020.

Then suddenly, a few decades into the twenty-first century, the growth
of the economy stops and reverses rather abruptly. This discontinuation of past growth trends is principally caused by rapidly increasing costs of non-renewable resources.

In the simulated year 2000, the nonrenewable resources remaining in the ground would have lasted 60 years at the year-2000 consumption rate. No serious resource limits are then in evidence. But by 2020 the remaining resources constitute only a 30-year supply

During those two decades in Scenario 1, the growing population and
industrial plant use nearly the same amount of nonrenewable resources as the global economy used in the entire century before!

This scenario portrays a “nonrenewable resource crisis.” It is not a prediction. It is not meant to forecast precise values of any of the model variables, nor the exact timing of events. We do not believe it represents the most likely “real world” outcome.

The strongest statement we can make about Scenario 1 is that it portrays the likely general behavior mode of the system, if the policies that influence economic growth and population growth in the future are similar to those that dominated the last part of the twentieth century, if technologies and values continue to evolve in a manner representative of that era, and if the uncertain numbers in the model are roughly correct.

“Are we better off in a world without cows?” In a companion mini documentary, World Without Cows Brazil: The Battle for Balance, we return to Brazil to explore its extraordinary potential to double food production without cutting a single tree.

World Without Cows – COP30 – November 12 Screening - World Without Cows
https://worldwithoutcows.com/cop30-november-12-screening/

Jinak před pár dny vyšla publikace EAT-Lancet, na téma zdravých, udržitelných a spravedlivých potravinových systémů. Jedním z autorů je Johan Rockström a obecně pracuje s daty Planetárních mezí.
https://www.thelancet.com/commissions-do/EAT-2025

A článek

Even if the entire world transitions away from fossil fuels, the way we farm and eat will cause global temperatures to rise 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels.

The new report builds on the commission’s first report, published in 2019 — an enormous undertaking that examined how to meet the nutritional needs of a growing global population while staying within planetary boundaries. It was highly influential and widely cited in both policy and academic literature, but it was also ruthlessly attacked in an intensive smear campaign by meat industry-aligned groups, academics, and influencers — a form of “mis- and disinformation and denialism on climate science.”

“The diets of the richest 30% of the global population contribute to more than 70% of the environmental pressures from food systems,” the new report reads.

If globally adopted, this plant-rich diet would prevent up to 15 million premature deaths each year.

EAT-Lancet 2.0: Major climate study finds rich countries must eat less meat, more plant-based diets | Vox
https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/463643/eat-lancet-plant-based-diet-climate-week
odemknuto: https://archive.ph/mDDob