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https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1Fz7JAoznf/

The rate of the Earth Energy Imbalance (EEI) increase and global Ocean Heat Content (OHC) increase (mostly to deep into the uppermost 2000 meter layer) more than doubled starting in ~2017 and is related to the strong El Niño (EN) of 2015-2016. With the 2026-2027 EN looking like it will be stronger by a large margin, the inference is that this could lead to a sharp additional rise in the rate of global OHC increase and of the EEI around 2028. If that is the case then a larger average global 2 m height air temperature increase is already baked in unless we drastically and very rapidly reduce greenhouse gas emissions and existing atmospheric concentrations.

The sharp increase and subsequent acceleration in global OHC starting in ~2017 is primarily driven by accelerating atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and the accumulation of Earth's excess thermal energy deep within the ocean layers. Because the world's oceans absorb more than 90% of the excess heat trapped by greenhouse gases, full-depth OHC acts as the primary indicator of global warming, experiencing less year-to-year fluctuation from temporary weather events than surface temperatures do.

Scientists point to several overlapping factors that explain the distinct surge around 2017:

1. The planet experienced one of the most powerful El Niño events on record between 2015 and 2016. During an El Niño, vast amounts of ocean heat are released into the atmosphere, causing atmospheric surface temperatures to spike. Once that cycle ended, the ocean surface cooled slightly, but the ongoing global energy imbalance meant the oceans immediately resumed absorbing massive amounts of heat. Instead of staying at the surface, this heat was mixed and stored deep into the 0–2000 meter layers.

2. According to findings published by the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), the sharp spike in 2017 was not uniform across the planet. An unusually massive amount of thermal energy was deposited into the Atlantic Ocean and the Southern Ocean, pushing full OHC to record-breaking thresholds—absorbing an extra 1.51 x 10^22 Joules compared to previous baselines.

3. Data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) confirmed that 2017 saw atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations hit 405 parts per million (ppm), which was the highest in modern recorded history. Currently it is 427 to 429 ppm. As these gases trap more energy, Earth’s energy imbalance worsens, forcing the oceans to continually uptake greater quantities of heat at a much faster rate.

4. According to data tracked by NASA’s Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO), the upper 200 meters of the ocean saw a pronounced acceleration in heat content right after 2017. This acceleration means that the ocean is warming more than twice as fast over the last decade compared to previous decades.

Because water has a much higher heat capacity than air (the oceans have a total heat capacity about 1,000 times that of the atmosphere) the oceans act as Earth's primary climate buffer.

In 2025, ocean heat content (OHC) set yet another consecutive record high, storing an immense volume of energy.

The oceans absorb about 90% of the EEI while EEI is accelerating. While the total amount of heat the ocean absorbs is skyrocketing - because the total EEI is accelerating - the 90% share is projected to remain relatively stable in the near future, though subtle shifts are possible.

The absolute velocity of heat absorption is accelerating. Due to rising greenhouse gases and declining global reflectivity (albedo) from melting ice and fewer marine clouds, the Earth's total energy imbalance has dramatically widened. 👉The rate of ocean warming has effectively quadrupled over the past four decades.👈

As the top layer of the ocean warms, it becomes less dense than the cold water beneath it, leading to increased stratification (layering). This makes it harder for the ocean to mix. If the warm surface layer cannot efficiently transport heat down into the deep ocean, the surface layer will heat up even faster. Over a long timeframe, this could decrease the ocean’s efficiency as a heat sink, leaving a slightly higher fraction of heat to remain in the atmosphere and accelerate land warming.

Large -scale ocean currents like the AMOC act as a conveyor belt that pushes heat into the deep ocean. Climate models indicate that as fresh meltwater from glaciers flows into the sea, the AMOC may weaken. A weaker conveyor belt alters regional heat uptake patterns and reduces how effectively the deep ocean stores excess energy.

While the ocean’s heat absorption remains high, its carbon dioxide absorption is a different story. The ocean absorbs about 25–30% of human-emitted CO2. However, warmer water physically holds less dissolved gas. Scientists have observed that the ocean’s carbon sink capacity is showing signs of weakening during extreme heat years. If the ocean absorbs less CO2, atmospheric CO2 will rise faster, widening the EEI and forcing the ocean to absorb even more heat.

More: https://ecco-group.org/ohc.htm

kind of related

Česko může mít v krizové situaci vážný problém se zásobováním potravinami. Podle předsedy Asociace soukromého zemědělství ČR Jaroslava Šebka je jedním z největších rizik přílišná koncentrace zemědělské produkce a výroby, kdy útok na velké zpracovatelské podniky může způsobit rozsáhlé škody. Šebek v rozhovoru pro PrahaIN.cz říká, že to je jeden z důvodů, proč by stát měl podpořit menší hospodářství.

Stačí zasáhnout sýpky a sklady. Šéf sedláků upozorňuje na slabinu Česka
https://www.asz.cz/clanek/16561/staci-zasahnout-sypky-a-sklady-sef-sedlaku-upozornuje-na-slabinu-ceska

Heating and cooling together now account for more than 40 percent of global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions.

Hot summer economics
https://www.triodos.com/en/articles/2026/hot-summer-economics

Europe's heatwave this summer will cut EU GDP by around 1% in 2026, roughly €180 billion, matching the bloc's entire expected growth for the year, according to a new Triodos Bank report. An estimated 20,400 people died from heat-related causes across France, Germany, Spain and Italy in a single week in June, with wildfires having already burned more land by 30 July than in any full previous year on record.

France is projected to take the biggest economic hit, with GDP growth cut by 1.4 percentage points, potentially pushing an already weak forecast into a 0.6% contraction for 2026. The Netherlands faces near-stagnant growth after an 0.8-point loss. Poland, despite being highly exposed on paper, escapes largely unscathed this year simply because it has had fewer extreme-heat days than usual, while Spain and Italy, hit by the most hot days, are cushioned by decades of acclimatisation.

Labour productivity is the single largest driver of the losses, more than agriculture, energy or transport combined, with research showing measurable output drops once temperatures pass roughly 25–30°C, especially in outdoor and non-air-conditioned work.

The report's authors point to 17 July, when the European Commission proposed easing the trajectory of the EU's carbon-pricing emissions cap through the 2030s on competitiveness grounds, the same week wildfire and death tolls were hitting record levels. That, they argue, illustrates the loop they say Europe is now caught in: heat damages growth, policy loosens to protect growth, emissions rise, and the next heatwave costs more.

TADEAS:

since 2018, Europe has lost an annual average of 46% more biomass per hectare of forest area than during the period 1985-2017. The researchers attribute the sharp increase since 2018 primarily to climate change-related events. A substantial portion of the overall forest loss has been concentrated in Central Europe.

Link to the research paper:

Accelerating biomass loss from forest disturbances across Europe | Nature Geoscience
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-026-02032-y

Link to a summary article;

Europe's Forests Suffer Record Biomass Loss Since 2018 | Mirage News
https://www.miragenews.com/europes-forests-suffer-record-biomass-loss-1722180/

Well, this isn’t going to be... - Alt National Park Service
https://www.facebook.com/share/1KhzdT9qZx/

Well, this isn’t going to be good. We all know how this will likely go. The Supreme Court has announced that one of the first cases it will hear when its new term begins in October is a major climate change lawsuit. Boulder County, Colorado, is seeking millions of dollars from fossil fuel companies, including Suncor Energy, to help cover the costs of climate-related disasters like wildfires, extreme heat, and flooding. The county argues the companies hid the risks of fossil fuels while communities were left to deal with the consequences.

based load

France Shuts Off More Nuclear Power as Heat Builds Across Europe - Bloomberg
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-30/france-shuts-off-more-nuclear-power-as-heat-builds-across-europe

❝ Electricite de France SA shut down the Golfech-2 nuclear reactor in southern France as a blistering heat wave pushes temperatures toward 40C across parts of Europe.

The Golfech shutdown is the latest in a record number of heat-related outages across France’s nuclear fleet this summer, curbing output from the backbone of Europe’s electricity system. EDF has also warned that the Tricastin plant could face production cuts overnight as soaring river temperatures constrain reactor cooling.

Many of France’s nuclear plants rely on river water for cooling before discharging the warmer water back into the river. Environmental regulations limit those discharges when river temperatures are already high, forcing reactors to reduce output.

“The heat wave is a big factor kicking in on French nuclear power,” said Christopher Kurish, portfolio manager at power trader Mind Energy in Denmark. “How long the heat will last is worrisome and if it escalates even more.”

French evening power prices during July have been higher than any other year on record, besides during the energy crisis of 2022. This evening they will hit about €200 per megawatt-hour, according to data from Epex Spot SE, up from a low of about €5 around noon.

Elsewhere, Hungary’s nuclear power plant Paks will cut capacity at block 2 by 50% on Thursday due to low water level of the Danube river, the fourth cut in capacity in two days.

At the same time, German wind power is also set to decline sharply overnight. The country’s fleet of wind farms could produce less than a gigawatt of power early Friday morning before recovering early next week, according to a Bloomberg model. ❞

Marius Comper - Average annual excess deaths from heat...
https://www.facebook.com/share/1BQ7YiG7qZ/

Average annual excess deaths from heat across 2000–19.

Europe accounts for 178,712 heat-related deaths a year — 36.5% of the global heat-related total — despite accounting for a much smaller share of the world’s population than Asia.

Europe's heat-related death rate was 24 per 100,000 people, far above the global average of 7, the Americas at 6, and Northern America also at 6.

kind of related, strip mining beyond earth

Can helium-3 create a ‘gold rush’ on the moon? | Scientific American
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/can-helium-3-create-a-gold-rush-on-the-moon/

A kilogram of helium-3 costs roughly $20 million on Earth, where the entire planet produces only a few kilograms of it per year — almost all through the radioactive decay of tritium, a hydrogen isotope used to boost thermonuclear weapons. Scientists estimate that around a billion kilograms of the rare isotope lie embedded in the lunar surface, deposited over billions of years by the solar wind. That gap between terrestrial scarcity and lunar abundance is now driving serious commercial interest in moon mining, with Seattle-based Interlune among the companies positioning themselves to extract it.

The appeal is not speculative. Helium-3 is a superlative coolant that enables quantum computers to reach their operating temperatures — fractions of a degree above absolute zero — and is also essential for advanced medical imaging, for detecting smuggled nuclear material, and holds promise as a fuel for future fusion reactors. Writing in Scientific American, Robin George Andrews quotes Clive Neal, a lunar geoscientist at the University of Notre Dame, who draws a sharp distinction between helium-3 and other touted lunar resources such as water ice: "Helium-3 is where the money is".

The reason so much accumulates on the moon comes down to exposure and mineralogy. Earth's atmosphere and magnetic field deflect the solar wind; the airless moon has no such protection. Sara Russell, a planetary scientist at London's Natural History Museum, describes the result as helium-3 being "spray-painted across the whole of the lunar surface". Much of it is retained by ilmenite, a mineral composed of iron, titanium, and oxygen, which Neal describes as "a sponge" for solar-wind gases. The richest deposits are expected in mare regions — the dark, ancient lava plains — particularly in near-equatorial areas and, more often than not, on the lunar far side, where solar-wind exposure tends to be strongest.

Extracting the gas is considerably harder than locating it. "It's like trying to mine spray paint from a wall", Russell says. Interlune, founded in 2020, has developed a prototype extractor with industrial partner Vermeer Corporation capable of processing 100 metric tonnes of lunar regolith per hour. NASA awarded the company a $6.9-million contract earlier this month to advance its hydrogen- and helium-capturing technology. The company's robotic Prospect Moon mission, planned for as early as 2028, will carry a robotic arm, a mass spectrometer, and three different extraction devices. "That's what we need to demonstrate our business case for full-scale operations on the moon", says co-founder and CEO Rob Meyerson.

Not everyone is persuaded the enterprise is either viable or desirable. Russell raises environmental concerns about unregulated strip-mining leaving mechanical scars potentially visible from Earth. "The moon belongs to everybody, surely", she says. Meyerson counters that Interlune plans to dig to around three metres, leaving behind no waste or pollutants, describing the aim as "leaving the site looking like a tilled agricultural field" — though the article notes this is an optimistic projection that no one can yet verify in practice. Even NASA administrator Jared Isaacman has expressed scepticism, recently suggesting that asteroid mining may offer a greater return than lunar helium-3.

There are also open scientific questions with industry-defining stakes. If the solar wind replenishes the moon's helium-3 supply quickly, it could function as something approaching a renewable resource. If regeneration takes centuries or more, reserves may not keep pace with surging demand from quantum computing and other applications. "If helium-3 is a renewable resource, then you've got long-term prosperity", Neal says. Robotic prospecting missions — including NASA's VIPER rover, expected by next year, and the joint Japan-India LUPEX mission planned for 2028 — should begin to answer that question. "We're going to hit the mother lode", Neal ventures. "If it's proven, it could change everything."

related

The Last Oil Tanker From the Strait of Hormuz has Arrived – Now What? with Art Berman | TGS 220
https://youtu.be/Gk6xm5IuY4w?si=0AqHE4OHs_3ktzM-

related

https://www.science.org/content/article/pesticides-may-wreak-havoc-gut-microbiome

Velmurugan Ganesan of the KMCH Research Foundation wondered whether pesticide exposure could explain a curious finding. In a study of almost 3000 people in southern India, his team found that 23% of participants in urban areas had diabetes, which clustered with classic risk factors such as obesity and high cholesterol. Yet in rural areas, the prevalence was still 16%, and there was no association with those risk factors. “We started wondering whether environmental chemicals could be playing a role,” Ganesan says.

The team then explored the effects of exposure to one widely used agricultural insecticide, chlorpyrifos, in mice. Previous animal studies had often tested high doses for short periods, but Ganesan’s team used what he calls a “realistic dose,” based on pesticide residues in the average Indian diet, for 120 days. The study, published in August 2025, found that chlorpyrifos reshaped the gut microbiome, with beneficial bacteria such as Lactobacillus declining and potentially harmful species such as Helicobacter rising. Mice exposed to chlorpyrifos also developed high blood sugar and diabetes, despite not gaining weight, says Karthika Durairaj, the study’s first author.

Another study co-authored by Ganesan suggests a possible mechanism: When gut microbes break down chlorpyrifos, they produce acetate and other metabolites the liver uses to make glucose through a process called gluconeogenesis, leading to elevated blood sugar levels.

Ganesan’s team is now analyzing blood, urine, and stool samples from people with diabetes, both with and without obesity, and healthy controls to examine whether the patterns hold up in humans. “We are working to show that diabetes induced by environmental chemicals is quite different [from lifestyle-associated diabetes] in its underlying disease mechanisms and could require different clinical care,” Ganesan says.

Pesticides appear to drive not just population shifts in the microbes, but also changes in their activity. In a large study published in 2025, for example, researchers exposed 17 representative bacterial species from the human gut to 18 different pesticides and detected changes in the microbial production of hundreds of small molecules. They included short-chain fatty acids, bile acids, and tryptophan-related molecules—compounds that help keep the gut lining healthy, regulate inflammation, and guide immune responses.

“Most studies focus on the effect of pesticides on … gut microbial composition, but this study shows that effects are far greater than that,” says study co-author Caroline Johnson, an environmental health epidemiologist at the Yale School of Public Health. The team also found that some bacteria accumulate pesticides within their cells, which could prolong their presence in the human body and increase the risk of long-term health effects.

Reduced economic activity caused by the current Iran war has not been sufficient to offset the surge in CO₂ emissionsgenerated by the conflict. While economic slowdowns typically lead to modest declines in emissions, the scale of disruption in this case has been relatively limited on a global level.

At the same time, the war has produced a sharp and concentrated spike in emissions from infrastructure destruction, fires, and intensified military operations, resulting in a clear net increase in CO₂ output. A key reason is that war-related emissions are largely additive rather than substitutive. Military fuel use, explosions, and the burning of oil and buildings introduce new emissions on top of ongoing civilian and industrial activity, rather than replacing it. Moreover, the destruction of infrastructure creates a pipeline of future emissions, as rebuilding cities, roads, and energy systems requires large amounts of carbon-intensive materials like cement and steel. These delayed emissions often outweigh any short-term reductions from decreased economic activity.

In addition, the war is triggering indirect effects that further raise emissions, such as shifts toward dirtier energy sources, increased fossil fuel investment for energy security, and longer transportation routes due to regional instability. Historical patterns from other conflicts show that even when emissions dip briefly during periods of disruption, they tend to rebound and exceed prior levels during recovery and reconstruction. Overall, the evidence indicates that the Iran war is contributing to a net increase in emissions both immediately and over the longer term, rather than being offset by reduced economic output.

https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1AiasFSuCW/

TADEAS: related

Antarctica just saw fastest glacier collapse ever recorded
Antarctica’s Hektoria Glacier lost nearly half its ice in just 2 months after lifting off a flat seabed and shattering apart
Such events could accelerate global sea level rise much faster than predicted

Antarctica just saw the fastest glacier collapse ever recorded | ScienceDaily
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2026/02/260226042454.htm

The U.S. Supreme Court has agreed to hear a major case that could reshape how climate accountability lawsuits move forward across the country.

At issue is a lawsuit filed in Colorado that seeks to hold energy companies financially responsible for the local costs of climate change things like wildfire mitigation, infrastructure damage, extreme weather response, and public health impacts. The companies are asking the Court to throw the case out entirely.

The justices’ decision to take up the case is significant. While the Colorado lawsuit is the one directly before them, the ruling will likely determine whether similar cases brought by cities and states nationwide can proceed. Across the country, municipalities have filed lawsuits seeking billions of dollars in damages, arguing that fossil fuel companies misled the public about climate risks while continuing business practices that worsened those risks.

If the Court sides with the energy companies, many of these cases could be dismissed before they ever reach trial. If the Court allows the Colorado case to move forward, it could open the door for more local governments to pursue compensation through the courts.

This isn’t just about one state it’s about whether communities across the United States can use state courts to seek accountability for climate-related costs, or whether those efforts will be shut down at the federal level.

https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1AhZn3nVui/

US supreme court takes up fossil fuel firms’ climate accountability case | US supreme court | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/feb/23/supreme-court-suncor-exxonmobil-case

Promoting the National Defense by Ensuring an Adequate Supply of Elemental Phosphorus and Glyphosate-Based Herbicides – The White House
https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/02/promoting-the-national-defense-by-ensuring-an-adequate-supply-of-elemental-phosphorus-and-glyphosate-based-herbicides/

Trump has issued an executive order invoking the Defense Production Act of 1950, a law that allows a president to direct and prioritize industrial production in the name of national defense. The order is designed to boost domestic production of glyphosate, a widely used weedkiller that has been at the center of major health-related lawsuits.

It specifically instructs federal agencies to ensure that any resulting rules or directives do not undermine the financial stability of U.S. producers of these materials. “Making America Healthy Again”? It looks more like protecting chemical manufacturers once again.

Oh no a ted jsem v pasti related lectures, ktery si nikdy nestihnu skutecne nakoukat

Jon Lawhead: Multi­Scale Modeling and Pluralism in Climate Systems
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RYYAzw56s9M

TADEAS: mann re gates

You can’t reboot the planet if you crash it
https://thebulletin.org/2025/10/you-cant-reboot-the-planet-if-you-crash-it/

I became concerned about Gates’ framing of the climate crisis nearly a decade ago when a journalist reached out to me, asking me to comment on his supposed “discovery” of a formula for predicting carbon emissions. (The formula is really an “identity” that involves expressing carbon emissions as a product of terms related to population, economic growth, energy efficiency, and fossil fuel dependence). I noted, with some amusement, that the mathematical relationship Gates had “discovered” was so widely known it had a name, the “Kaya identity,” after the energy economist Yōichi Kaya who presented the relationship in a textbook nearly three decades ago. It’s familiar not just to climate scientists in the field but to college students taking an introductory course on climate change.

If this seems like a gratuitous critique, it is not. It speaks to a concerning degree of arrogance. Did Gates really think that something as conceptually basic as decomposing carbon emissions into a product of constituent terms had never been attempted before? That he’s so brilliant that anything he thinks up must be a novel discovery?

I reserved my criticism of Gates, at the time, not for his rediscovery of the Kaya identity (hey—if can help his readers understand it, that’s great) but for declaring that it somehow implies that “we need an energy miracle” to get to zero carbon emissions. It doesn’t. I explained that Gates “does an injustice to the very dramatic inroads that renewable energy and energy efficiency are making,” noting peer-reviewed studies by leading experts that provide “very credible outlines for how we could reach a 100 percent noncarbon energy generation by 2050.”

The so-called “miracle” he speaks of exists—it’s called the sun, and wind, and geothermal, and energy storage technology. Real world solutions exist now and are easily scalable with the right investments and priorities. The obstacles aren’t technological. They’re political.

Gates’ dismissiveness in this case wasn’t a one-off. It was part of a consistent pattern of downplaying clean energy while promoting dubious and potentially dangerous technofixes in which he is often personally invested. When I had the chance to question him about this directly (The Guardian asked me to contribute to a list of questions they were planning on asking him in an interview a few years ago), his response was evasive and misleading. He insisted that there is a “premium” paid for clean energy buildout when in fact it has a lower levelized cost than fossil fuels or nuclear and deflected the questions with ad hominem swipes.