The peak oil crisis: peak oil elasticity
http://www.postcarbon.org/article/325600-the-peak-oil-crisis-peak-oil
In the years prior to the recession that began in roughly 2008 US summer demand for gasoline was about 9.6 million b/d and slowly increasing. For the last two summers however, demand has peaked at about 9.3 million b/d suggesting that the recession has cut about 300,000 b/d off peak driving season demand. Some of this drop in demand, of course, is from business. With the economy limping along on the federal stimulus spending and housing construction way below the highs of five years ago, the use of gasoline is down. High gasoline prices and widespread un/under-employment have forced many to reduce gasoline consumption. Anecdotal evidence suggests that driving by the large numbers of unemployed teenagers is way below what it once was. In short, the weaker hands cut their gasoline consumption over the last few years. The average U.S. personal vehicle (cars, trucks and SUVs) consumes about 700 gallons of fuel a year. At $4 a gallon this is now about $2800 a year to fuel the average passenger vehicle. Each dollar a gallon increase adds only $60 a month to the gasoline bill, an amount manageable by many given the “essential” of personal transport.
This analysis suggests that at least for the immediate future we are not likely to see much of a drop in the demand for gasoline. If the economy slows further, then commercial demand for fuels by industry, business, airlines, etc. is likely to drop. Detroit is already expressing concern that $4.50 gasoline will cut into sales of large vehicles much as $4 gasoline did three years ago. For most there is currently no ready substitute for gasoline. When it comes to food, chicken or pasta can readily be substituted for beef, and restaurants bypassed. But for the mobility which is essential to our lifestyles few have an acceptable ready substitute. While U.S. gasoline consumption may fall by hundreds of thousands of barrels due to higher prices in the next few years, it is difficult to foresee it falling by millions.