Tom Whipple - Peak Oil and the Great Recession.
Between 2003 and 2007, the world s real GDP5 grew between 9 and 10 percent a year. World oil production, however, stopped growing significantly after 2005.With demand still increasing, spectacular increases in oil prices ensued. Oil, which was trading for as low as $20 a barrel in 2002, reached $70 a barrel in 2006, increased to $80 a barrel in late 2007, and topped $100 at the beginning of 2008.
But the price rise had a huge impact on real GDP: With world oil consumption running at about 85 million bpd and U.S. consumption at about 20 million bpd, a dollar-a-barrel increase in the price of oil is a lot of money and places a major burden on an economy. The $60-per-barrel increase in oil prices between 2002 and late 2007 meant that $1.2 billion additional each dayâ or $36 billion each month was being spent in the United States solely to pay for the increased cost of oil.
The year 2008 will be remembered as a major turning point in industrial history, for it was the first year when the world got a taste of the unpredictable price spikes that come from inadequate oil supplies. The first half of the year was marked by a steady increase in the weighted average price of oil, which started the year at about $90 a barrel and finally peaked in July just shy of $ 150 a barrel. At the same time, the global economy was contracting rapidly with falling industrial production, falling exports, and rising unemployment. By July 1, 2008, many industries that are dependent on oil, especially the airline and trucking industries, were desperate and in danger of being forced out of business. With the average price of gasoline above $4 a gallon in the United States (above $5 in California), car sales plummeted, leading to bankruptcy for much of the U.S. automobile industry and eventually massive
government bailouts.
Zdroj:
http://www.postcarbon.org/Reader/PCReader-Whipple-Oil.pdf