The Implications of Cosmic Silence | University of Arkansas
http://news.uark.edu/articles/39255/the-implications-of-cosmic-silence
The universe is incomprehensibly vast, with billions of other planets circling billions of other stars.
The potential for intelligent life to exist somewhere out there should be enormous.
So, where is everybody?
That’s the Fermi paradox in a nutshell. Daniel Whitmire, a retired astrophysicist who teaches mathematics
at the University of Arkansas, once thought the cosmic silence indicated we as a species lagged far behind.
“I taught astronomy for 37 years,” said Whitmire. “I used to tell my students that by statistics, we have
to be the dumbest guys in the galaxy. After all we have only been technological for about 100 years while
other civilizations could be more technologically advanced than us by millions or billions of years.”
Recently, however, he’s changed his mind. By applying a statistical concept called the principle of mediocrity –
the idea that in the absence of any evidence to the contrary we should consider ourselves typical, rather than
atypical – Whitmire has concluded that instead of lagging behind, our species may be average. That’s not good news.
In a paper published Aug. 3 in the International Journal of Astrobiology, Whitmire argues that if we are typical,
it follows that species such as ours go extinct soon after attaining technological knowledge.
The argument is based on two observations: We are the first technological species to evolve on Earth, and we are
early in our technological development. (He defines “technological” as a biological species that has developed
electronic devices and can significantly alter the planet.)
The first observation seems obvious, but as Whitmire notes in his paper, researchers believe the Earth should be
habitable for animal life at least a billion years into the future. Based on how long it took proto-primates to
evolve into a technological species, that leaves enough time for it to happen again up to 23 times. On that time
scale, there could have been others before us, but there’s nothing in the geologic record to indicate we weren’t
the first. “We’d leave a heck of a fingerprint if we disappeared overnight,” Whitmire noted.
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