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    TUHOKlimaticka zmena / Thank you so much for ruining my day


    "Given the sheer enormity of climate change, it’s okay to be depressed, to grieve. But please, don’t stay there too long. Join me in pure, unadulterated, righteous anger."


    "I don’t want your hope. I don’t want you to be hopeful. I want you to panic. I want you to feel the fear I feel every day. And then I want you to act. Once you start to act, the hope is everywhere."

    "Our best scientists tell us insistently that a calamity is unfolding, that the life-support systems of the Earth are being damaged in ways that threaten our survival. Yet in the face of these facts we carry on as usual."

    “We’ve got to stop burning fossil fuels. So many aspects of life depend on fossil fuels, except for music and love and education and happiness. These things, which hardly use fossil fuels, are what we must focus on.”

    A nejde o to, že na to nemáme dostatečné technologie, ty by na řešení použít šly, ale chybí nám vůle a představivost je využít. Zůstáváme při zemi, přemýšlíme až moc rezervovaně. Technologický pokrok to sám o sobě nevyřeší. Problém jsme my, ne technologické nástroje.

    Rostouci hladiny oceanu, zmena atmosferickeho proudeni, zmeny v distribuci srazek a sucha. Zmeny karbonoveho, fosforoveho a dusikoveho cyklu, okyselovani oceanu. Jake jsou bezpecnostni rizika a jake potencialni klady dramatickych zmen fungovani zemskeho systemu?
    Ale take jak funguji masove dezinformacni kampane ropneho prumyslu a boj o verejne mineni na prahu noveho klimatickeho rezimu post-holocenu.
    rozbalit záhlaví
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    TADEAS: ok, to je ale prave nekolik veci najednou a je potreba je oddelit

    1) do tematu eroei se nechci moc poustet, ale z podstaty veci jeji mereni se zaklada (a musi zakladat) na menicich se faktorech, jako ~ocekavana prumerna zivotnost, ~ocekavana prumerna efektivita, ~pravdepodobne (ne)ocekavana recyklace, jako vstup do dalsiho vyrobku/eroei. ~ocekavany prumerny energeticky vstup na vyrobu.

    vsechny tyhle faktory se meni v case k lepsimu a pokud je prumerujeme a delame vedecke prace, tak tam zahrnujeme co bylo / je. pochybuju, ze napr. eroei solarek pocita s tim, ze se zvysi skokove efektivita (vic muj link pred par dny) nebo po 20 letech prevezou do afriky, kde budou na pousti s nizsi efektivitou slouzit dalsich 20 let (velke procento z nich). dalsim prikladem muze byt pouziti dreva na vetrnik, pastoval jsem nedavno. oproti kovu bude eroei mozna nizsi (nevim), nebo se diky recyklaci po jejich zivotnosti pomuze usetrit energie jinde

    navic u ropy uhli apod uz se bude pocitat s castecne existujici infrastrukturou, oproti tomu infra pro renewables budujeme/objevujeme, takze se budou energeticky vstupy logicky snizovat. kdyz Ford budoval tovarny, tak taky nejezdily ropny tankery pres pulku sveta, to by tehdejsi eroei dostalo zabrat..

    2) presne tak, u fosilu spotrebovavame "baterky", takze eroei je vpodstate pokriveny, protoze nezapocitavame cas a tlak, ktery byl pro tuhle formu skladovani zapotrebi. navic spotrebovavame kvanta vody na ropnych piscich apod. a ziskavat cistou vodu bude stale vic a vic energeticky narocne

    3) nemusi jit jen o seasonal storage, tech typu je vic a musej fungovat jak na okamzity, tak na rocni bazi. a jakmile se vybuduje sdilena infrastruktura pro tyhle storage, nemusej se vypinat vetrniky pri prebytcich atd. eroei zase posune jinam.

    s densitou ale forma vyroby nema moc spolecnyho, to je jen prostorovej problem - napr. pro auta (nabijitelny ze silnice, vodiku, li-on...), ale uz vubec ne pro verejnou elektrickou sit, kde muzes mit precerpavaci elektrarnu.

    jeho tvrzeni "Those who believe that the world will function the same on lower energy density sources like wind and solar should review their old physics text books" je egoisticky a bud by si mel tu knizku precist znovu on, nebo vysvetlit co konkretne se ve svete zmeni. zas tolik toho byt nemusi

    Energy storage - Wikipedia
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_storage
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    SHEFIK: no, tak nepise to presne. z hlediska vyroby je tam to eroei, ktery potrebujem mit nad nejakou hodnotou. z hlediska spotreby se to brat tak, ze u fosilnich paliv vzdycky spotrebovavame z baterky, takze to srovnani cerpani z uloziste se spalovanim paliv nejakej smysl dava. kdyz si predstavim napr. nejaky mikroregionalni reseni energetiky, tak k vetrnymu parku muzu bez problemu prostorove mit seasonal storage ve vodiku nebo hliniku. oproti napr. vode, kde bych musel mit prehradu a naklady pravdepodobne mnohem vyssi (i pres delsi zivotnost).
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    TADEAS: to sou prece jabka a hrusky. skladovani (resp. density skladovani) a vyroba (vs. jeji skalovatelnost). ta veta je dojem autora vystreleny od boku po nedelnim knedliku, nic moc k vedecke diskuzi
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    Noam Chomsky, Janis Varoufakis, Srecko Horvath a dalsi spousteji platformu, jejiz jednim z cilu je prosadit mezinarodni Green New Deal

    Fossil fuel industries are driving us into climate catastrophe — and the world’s working class will be forced to pay for their greed. This toolkit helps you organize to fight for a just transition around the world.
    Our future has been held hostage by a handful of oil and gas executives. For decades, they have lied to the public about the dangers of fossil fuel extraction, and bought off politicians to repeat their message. They are internationally organized, infiltrating institutions at both national and international levels to advance their agenda of extraction. Their incredible wealth means their families will be fine, but the rest of us won’t.


    https://progressive.international/...ng-for-a-green-new-deal-7af9e89d-542f-44b1-816c-d79745459027/en
    SHINIGAMI
    SHINIGAMI --- ---
    Benzin - spalne teplo - 33.6GJ.m-3 = 9.3MWh.m-3
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    ze smila, energy and civilization

    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    TADEAS: SHINIGAMI: Pred par lety se resilo, ze s vodou zacina mit problemy i prumysl (cela rada odvetvi pouziva velky mnozstvi vody)... Nemate k tomu nejaky dalsi zdroje?
    Jeste by me zajimala takova spotreba vody na chlazeni uhelnych elektraren
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    TADEAS: ad "Those who believe that the world will function the same on lower energy density sources like wind and solar should review their old physics text books. You cannot fit 4.5 years of work from sunlight or wind into the 5.6 cubic feet space of a barrel of oil."

    tohle je prave docela otazka, viz filtr "seasonal storage" - vodik, hlinik (Energy that is stored chemically in Al may reach 23.5 MWh/m3.), srv. benzin pokud pocitam spravne je 2,7 mwh/m3
    SHINIGAMI
    SHINIGAMI --- ---
    Koukam ze se s tim zli jadernici snazi i neco delat - https://www.nase-voda.cz/elektrarna-dukovany-planuje-ze-snizi-spotrebu-chladici-vody/
    Btw. stavajici spotreba uz je vysledek ruznych uspornych aktivit, zjevne jim to nebylo ukradeny ani v minulosti.
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    GAME OVER FOR OIL, THE ECONOMY IS NEXT
    Game Over for Oil, The Economy is Next - Art Berman
    https://www.artberman.com/2020/04/27/game-over-for-oil-the-economy-is-next/

    Most people, policy makers and economists are energy blind and cannot, therefore, fully grasp the gravity or the consequences of what is happening.

    Energy is the economy and oil is the most important and productive portion of energy. U.S. oil consumption is at its lowest level since 1971 when production was only about 78% of what it was in 2019. As goes oil, so goes the economy…down.

    The old oil industry and the old economy are gone. The energy mix that underlies the economy will be different now. Oil production and price are unlikely to regain late 2018 levels. Renewable sources will fall behind along with efforts to mitigate climate change.

    ...

    U.S. consumption has fallen about 30% from 20 mmb/d in January to 14 mmb/d in April. Refinery intakes are already 25% lower than in the first quarter of the year and will fall further as consumption decreases. Refineries will close.

    Most U.S. refineries require intermediate and heavy crude oil that must be imported. Few U.S. grades of oil can be used to produce diesel without blending them with imported oil. That is because they are too light to contain the organic compounds need to make diesel. Redesigning refineries will not change this.

    The world’s natural resource extraction, shipping and distribution system relies on diesel. As refineries close and less diesel is produced, there will be lower levels of natural resource extraction, less manufacturing and less buying of goods.

    Diesel cannot be produced without first producing gasoline. The U.S. has had a gasoline surplus since late 2014 and the current surplus is the highest in 5 years

    Diesel demand is less elastic than gasoline demand because of its critical role in heavy transport. What will happen to the excess produced gasoline if storage is full? Will it be burned?

    Those who see an opportunity for renewable energy in the demise of oil need to think again. The manufacture of solar panels, wind turbines and electric cars depend on diesel all along the supply chain from extraction to distribution of finished products. A world in economic depression will default to the cheapest and most productive fuels. Oil will be cheap and abundant for a long time. There will be little money or appetite for the massive equipment changes that renewable sources require. Climate change will not be high in the consciousness of people struggling to survive.

    ...

    Those who believe that the world will function the same on lower energy density sources like wind and solar should review their old physics text books. You cannot fit 4.5 years of work from sunlight or wind into the 5.6 cubic feet space of a barrel of oil.

    Seventeen investment analysts recently estimated that U.S. GDP would contract an average of 30-35% in 2020 (Figure 5) within a range of 9-50%. The correlation shown in Figure 4 suggests it will decrease by about 20-25% based on estimated decrease in U.S. oil consumption. Any value within this spectrum is catastrophic.

    ...

    Economist Lawrence Summers has warned that the U.S. financial system may collapse because of cascading defaults. Approximately 25% of U.S. renters did not pay their landlords and 23% of Americans did not make their mortgage payment in April. When people don’t pay their creditors, creditors in turn cannot pay their creditors. For comparison, a 28% mortgage default rate contributed to the 2008 financial collapse.

    Joseph Stiglitz recently explained that the current pandemic will affect the developing world more severely than it has developed countries. It might lead to mass migration problems that could dwarf the dislocations of the last six years out of Africa and the Middle East.

    ...

    Large segments of the U.S. oil industry will have to be nationalized before the year is over. The price of oil is too low to justify the cost of extraction even if storage were available. The value of a barrel of oil, however, is 4.5 man-years of work and that productivity multiplier will be essential if the U.S. economy is to avoid collapse or for it to recover if collapse is unavoidable.

    The United States has engaged in the foolish practice of draining America first since the beginning of tight oil production a decade ago. There was value up to the point that domestic oil substituted for imported light oil but exporting more was dumb. That is true especially now that someone else’s oil will be cheap to buy for years.

    There are few moments when we may truly say that things are different now. This is one of those moments. We do not know what awful form the future may take, what rough beast slouches toward Bethlehem to be born.

    The game is over for oil. We should place all of our attention on saving the economy.

    I hope that we learn to view what is happening as a chance to simplify and to learn to be satisfied with no more than what we need. It is unlikely that we will have much choice.


    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    SHINIGAMI: mam za to, ze muze vyprset v jiny oblasti nez byl zdroj vody, tim padem efekt je odber. misto ironie pomuze k tomu dodat nejaky zdroje, jsme v informacnim prostoru.
    SHINIGAMI
    SHINIGAMI --- ---
    TADEAS: to je takova specialita jadernych elektraren. Bezne odparena voda vyprsi v podobe deste, ale ta z chladicich vezi nenavratne mizi.
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Magdalena Davis - Názory Aktuálně.cz
    http://blog.aktualne.cz/blogy/magdalena-davis.php?itemid=36761

    JE Dukovany v současnosti spotřebují k chlazení přibližně dva kubíky vody za sekundu, z toho více než polovina se za onu sekundu odpaří. Pokud preferujete roční bilanci, pak věřte, že Dukovany spotřebuje každým rokem minimálně 55 miliónů kubíků vody, ze kterých se pouhých 40 % (22 milionů kubíků) vrací zpět do krajiny a tato voda je navíc ohřátá. Zhruba 33 milionů kubíků vody tak ročně z vyprahlého Třebíčska mizí.

    Pokud zrovna není dlouhodobé sucho, mohou Dukovany po nějakou dobu odebírat chladicí vodu z přehrady Dalešice, která zároveň umožňuje zajistit minimální možné průtoky v řece Jihlavě. V případě nového reaktoru už to bude ale mnohem obtížnější. Pokud současně s výstavbou nového bloku nedojde k vypnutí bloků starších, spotřeba vody na chlazení totiž výrazně naroste.

    Nastala by tak nevyhnutelná situace, kdy by bylo nutné nastřádanou vodu pro pitné účely použít jako chladicí.
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    A molecular tweak could enable wheat—and other crops—to thrive in higher temperatures | Anthropocene
    https://anthropocenemagazine.org/2020/05/a-new-way-to-make-heat-tolerant-wheat/
    BROZKEFF
    BROZKEFF --- ---
    TADEAS: richarda jsem potkal osobne pred par lety v belgii v plukrijpu kde nam daval workshop a natacel tam dokument, fajn typek :)
    PER2
    PER2 --- ---
    Nemá co tát. V Krkonoších bijí na poplach. Už teď vysychají potoky - Seznam Zprávy
    https://www.seznamzpravy.cz/...ma-co-tat-v-krkonosich-biji-na-poplach-uz-ted-vysychaji-potoky-104476
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    Carbon Brief
    Great Britain has been running for more than a month – and counting – without burning coal to generate electricity.
    With demand down nearly 20% due to #coronavirus, supply has been met by:
    36% renewables
    32% gas
    22% nuclear
    9% imports

    Analysis: Great Britain hits coal-free electricity record amid coronavirus lockdown
    https://www.carbonbrief.org/...t-britain-hits-coal-free-electricity-record-amid-coronavirus-lockdown
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    WHY THE RENEWABLE ROCKET HAS FAILED TO LAUNCH
    Why the Renewable Rocket Has Failed to Launch - Art Berman
    https://www.artberman.com/2020/05/08/why-the-renewable-rocket-has-failed-to-launch/

    Humans will self-organize around energy as we have always done. It is impossible for humans to choose an energy source that violates the genetic imperative to expand as a species. When that happens, it will be imposed by circumstances that make survival a greater imperative than growth.

    Coronavirus is a substantial step in that direction but is only a prelude. The economy is unlikely to fully recover from the economic damage done already. If premature opening of the economy results in another period of quarantine, the damage will be greater.

    The effects of this virus will be recognized in time as a fundamental and painful shift in the course of human history. The result of the transition to a 100% renewable energy future will, by comparison, be traumatic

    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    chjo, skoda ze jen v us

    Tesla starts solar price matching, reducing the cost of solar - here's how to benefit - Electrek
    https://electrek.co/2020/05/09/tesla-solar-price-matching/amp/

    Last year, Tesla launched a new solar subscription under which homeowners can get a solar panel system installed at their home for no cost and no contract.
    They only pay a monthly fee to access the solar power generated by the system to reduce their utility bill.
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    New Solution For Cooling Solar Panels | CleanTechnica
    https://cleantechnica.com/...servations-research-for-cooling-solar-panels-tested-in-summer-in-cairo/

    The technology enables an annual increase in power generation of between 8% and 12%.
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