https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1658883442774245382There's interannual natural variability so the temperature is sure to come back below 1.5C in a number of subsequent years.
1.5C in one year is beyond catastrophic. But what's most important is the sustained *average* temperature over multiple years.
Since 2016 we've been in a 1.2C average temperature regime (climate).
We might be headed, practically overnight, into a 1.5C climate. This is a paradigm shift from where we are now.
Even 1.4C, probably the minimum we can reasonably hope for, would be a paradigm shift.
This El Nino is by far the most significant and destructive event to ever hit our civilisation and that includes WW2. Due to Earth's Energy imbalance, once the average temperature goes up it won't come back down. These step-changes in Earth's climate can never be reversed.
If you want evidence of the capture of the expert class, look no further than the ridiculous assertion that 20 years will be needed before being able to declare the 1.5C threshold broken. When the time comes people will know whether it's been broken because it will be obvious. An average over several years is enough