TADEAS:
Overall, the team, comprised of scientists from Southampton, Sheffield and Bangor universities, as well as Rothamsted Research, looked at two lake ecosystems and two forests, using computer models with 70,000 adjustments of variables. They found that up to 15% of collapses occurred as a result of new stresses or extreme events, even while the primary stress was maintained at a constant level. The lesson they learned was that even if one part of an ecosystem is managed sustainably, new stresses such as global warming and extreme weather events could tip the balance towards a collapse.
While the scope of the study was limited, the authors said the results showed the need for policymakers to act with more urgency.
“Previous studies of ecological tipping points suggest significant social and economic costs from the second half of the 21st century onwards. Our findings suggest the potential for these costs to occur much sooner,” the co-author Prof John Dearing noted.