“Eco-collapse hasn’t happened but you can see it coming…
“This year, a simulation using an updated version of The Limits to Growth model showed industrial production peaking just about now, while food production, too, could hit a peak soon. Like the 1972 original, this updated analysis foresees distinct declines on the other side of those peaks.”

First, although most countries have committed to net zero targets, they still provide little information on what role CDR will play in reaching them. Within the NDCs, ambiguities and a lack of transparency lead to wide ranging assessments of not only the land use §ux and implied removals, but also overall emissions levels. These problems are even more apparent with the long-term strategies, which lack any common reporting structure and where underlying scenarios are illustrative rather than formal commitments.

Finally, a recurring concern in the literature is that including CDR in mitigation discussions may deter near-term emissions reductions 38. States, corporations or other interest groups seeking an excuse for doing very little may exploit the fact that CDR can compensate for emissions, overplaying the quantity of removals that may be achieved at some (later) point in time. Indeed, a variety of claims and discursive strategies beyond CDR are used to excuse or delay climate action, which may help political actors resolve the tension between powerful incumbent fossil interests and increasing domestic or international calls for
climate action.

An over-dependence on land-based removals brings risks for land
availability, food production and ownership rights.

Additionally, forest carbon is vulnerable to reversal and expectations that regional sinks can be preserved in the coming decades have been challenged, highlighting the importance of policies that promote sustainable management, prevent illegal removals, and limit the impact of natural disturbances

• The_carbon_dioxide_removal_gap.pdf