Toto na mne nepusobi moc optimisticky

The data for this visualization comes from the IEA World Energy Outlook 2025. It outlines global energy supply in exajoules (EJ) from 2024 through forecasts for 2035 and 2050.

Dalsi critical wake-up call k ignoraci.

Using advanced satellite data and machine learning, the researchers tracked more than a decade of changes in aboveground forest biomass, the amount of carbon stored in trees and woody vegetation. They found that while Africa gained carbon between 2007 and 2010, widespread forest loss in tropical rainforests has since tipped the balance.
Africa's forests have switched from absorbing to emitting carbon, new study finds
https://phys.org/news/2025-11-africa-forests-absorbing-emitting-carbon.html

CHOSIE: Co je zajímavé je to, že ve scénářích kde je více dostupných zdrojů, je to nakonec právě znečištění, které hraje velkou roli.

Scenario 8: World Seeks Stable Population and Stable Industrial Output per Person from 2002
If the model society both adopts a desired family size of 2 children and sets a fixed goal for industrial output per capita, it can extend somewhat the “golden period” of fairly high human welfare between 2020 and 2040 in Scenario 7. But pollution increasingly stresses agricultural resources. Per capita food production declines, eventually bringing down life expectancy and population.

CHOSIE: Tady je vidět ta prodleva, také to nepočítá s tím, že by průmyslová aktivita úplně zmizela, jinak další může být i využití půdy a její eroze, další zdroj zneštění, který lze udržovat i bez průmyslové civilizace. Příkladem ještě dodám plasty, ~50% všech plastů bylo vyrobeno za posledních 30 let, bude trvat hodně dlouho než všechny degradují natolik, že je bude možné považovat za znečištění.

A tady je popis a grafy k modelaci W3 scénář 1:

Scenario 1: A Reference Point
The world society proceeds in a traditional manner without any major deviation from the policies pur-
sued during most of the twentieth century. Population and production increase until growth is halted by
increasingly inaccessible nonrenewable resources. Ever more investment is required to maintain resource
flows. Finally, lack of investment funds in the other sectors of the economy leads to declining output of
both industrial goods and services. As they fall, food and health services are reduced, decreasing life
expectancy and raising average death rates.

Scenario 1, show the behavior of World3 when it is run “as is,” with numbers we consider a “realistic” description of the situation as it appeared on average during the latter part of the twentieth century, with no unusual technical or policy assumptions. In 1972 we called it the “standard run.” We did not consider it to be the most probable future, and we certainly didn’t present it as a prediction. It was just a place to start, a base for comparison.

In Scenario 1 the society proceeds along a very traditional path as long as possible without major policy change. It traces the broad outline of history as we know it throughout the twentieth century. The output of food, industrial goods, and social services increases in response to obvious needs and subject to the availability of capital. There is no extraordinary effort,beyond what makes immediate economic sense, to abate pollution, conserve resources, or protect the land.

The population in Scenario 1 rises from 1.6 billion in the simulated year 1900 to 6 billion in the year 2000 and more than 7 billion by 2030. Total industrial output expands by a factor of almost 30 between 1900 and 2000 and then by 10 percent more by 2020.

Then suddenly, a few decades into the twenty-first century, the growth
of the economy stops and reverses rather abruptly. This discontinuation of past growth trends is principally caused by rapidly increasing costs of non-renewable resources.

In the simulated year 2000, the nonrenewable resources remaining in the ground would have lasted 60 years at the year-2000 consumption rate. No serious resource limits are then in evidence. But by 2020 the remaining resources constitute only a 30-year supply

During those two decades in Scenario 1, the growing population and
industrial plant use nearly the same amount of nonrenewable resources as the global economy used in the entire century before!

This scenario portrays a “nonrenewable resource crisis.” It is not a prediction. It is not meant to forecast precise values of any of the model variables, nor the exact timing of events. We do not believe it represents the most likely “real world” outcome.

The strongest statement we can make about Scenario 1 is that it portrays the likely general behavior mode of the system, if the policies that influence economic growth and population growth in the future are similar to those that dominated the last part of the twentieth century, if technologies and values continue to evolve in a manner representative of that era, and if the uncertain numbers in the model are roughly correct.

XCHAOS: Tak ona je mezi průmyslovou produkcí a znečištěním značná prodleva - jedná se o zpožděnou zpětnou vazbu.

Výrobky mohou ještě dlouho sami o sobě znečišťovat, stejně jako jejich následný rozpad/rozklad (jednoduchý příklad je třeba Octavia z roku 1996 brázdící silnice dodnes), stejně jako samotné zdroje i po ukončení aktivity mohou ještě dlouho znečišťovat (příkladem opuštěné vrty, továrny,..).

Další předpoklad je méně prostředků, které znečištění odstraňují - v případě klesající průmyslové produkce a energetické dostupnosti se takové využití propadne na zebříčku priorit, lze též očekávat návrat k špinavějším praktikám.

Mnohé znečištění se v přírodě rozkládá a absorbuje desítky, stovky a v některých případech tisíce let, takže i při ukončení primární aktivity je důvod proč bude následovat akumulace - i když se třeba lehce zpomalí - podobně jako u CO2 (to je nepletu-li se v definovaném znečištění též).

TADEAS: dobře, ale z čeho bude v roce 2080 znečištění, když ne z průmyslové produkce?

(jinak samotná publikace fajn, to je z roku 2023, Bardi se na ni nějak nepodílel, to co píše za posledních 5 let zkrátka nemá mou důvěru..
stačí jeho bio
"If Gaia had thought that face masks were effective, she would have created us with much hairier nostrils")

TADEAS: Ugo Bardi, to jméno jsem dlouho neslyšel, nějak jsem ho vyfiltroval od té doby co se zbláznil během pandemie a začal šířit nepravdy ohledně ochranných pomůcek aj.

Bohužel to nebylo poprvé a nejspíš ani naposledy, kdy se z někoho, kdo poukazoval a mluvil o podceněných problémech, které do té doby zbytek ignoroval, stal někdo, kdo se pomátl a ztratil tím relevanci a věrohodnost. U Bardiho byl ten revoluční moment v 70. letech s EROEI a systémovou dynamikou. Další jména, jež potkal podobný osud - Tverberg, Campbell, Masterson.. dnes bych k tomu přidal i Hagense vzhledem k jeho postoji k Ukrajině.

Are we on the Edge of Collapse? Impressive Data from a Recalibration of World3
https://senecaeffect.substack.com/p/are-we-on-the-edge-of-collapse-impressive

According to this model, the collapse of industrial production should start next year. Agricultural collapse will be at about the same time. Population should start collapsing a few years later, and pollution will reach a peak around 2080 at levels some three times higher than the current ones. If this is a good prediction, we are in for a rough ride, a VERY rough ride.

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jiec.13442

Bateriová expanze Jiřího Šmejce
27. listopadu 2025, 10:17
Rumunský energetický holding Premier Energy, patřící pod skupinu Emma Capital Jiřího Šmejce a minoritně jeho manažerů, koupil masivní bateriový projekt u rumunského města Jasy u hranic s Moldavskem. S celkovou investicí kolem 75 milionů eur zde vybuduje úložiště s kapacitou 200 MW, které zajistí poměrně rozsáhlé portfolio obnovitelných zdrojů skupiny v regionu. Emma Capital loni poslala necelou třetinu Premier Energy na bukurešťskou burzu. Cena od IPO vyrostla o 16 % na aktuálních 22,7 RON za akcii, což skupinu oceňuje na v přepočtu cca 13,5 miliardy korun.

2024 ATMOSPHERIC GHGs RECORD HIGH, RECORD ANNUAL CO2 INCREASE

WMO, 2025, Atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations record high in 2024, increasing as fast as ever. CO2 annual increase was record highest. CO2 has increased 52%. Methane has increased 166% (2.6-fold) from preindustrial.

https://library.wmo.int/viewer/69057/download?file=GHG-20_en.pdf&type=pdf&navigator=1

"Důležité jsou závěry, jak vlastně COP 30 dopadla. Jedním slovem mizerně. Delegáti se nedohodli na žádném plánu, který by vedl ke snižování produkce a zároveň ke snižování spotřeby fosilních paliv. Přitom to byl základ Pařížské dohody, na niž další konference zatím vždycky navazovaly."

https://www.irozhlas.cz/komentare/rozhodnuti-fosilnich-starcu-z-cop-30-proti-otepleni-nebojovat-musime-se_2511270629_med

Averaged out over the year, German emissions are way higher than French ones. There is not a single hour in the whole year when its emissions are lower than the highest emissions in France.

This graphic shows Europe’s country-by-country hourly generation by CO2 intensity in 2024. Germanny is the brown swarm, France the blue lake. The data comes from ENTSO-E, the European Network of Transmission System Operators.

Europe’s diverse power generation mix!
https://www.energycentral.com/energy-biz/post/europe-s-diverse-power-generation-mix-6nwYZRygrMEcS8P

nie panimaju

"must sharply fall"



the world has moved from a safe operating space into zones of rising and high risk between 1997, 2015 and 2025. A business-as-usual path would further degrade ecosystems and strain societies. In contrast, effective overshoot management could still put the world on track for net-zero by mid-century and net-negative emissions by century’s end



Commentary: rising planetary risks after missed decade of action — Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
https://www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/latest-news/commentary-scientists-outline-rising-planetary-risks-after-missed-decade-of-action

In the commentary published in One Earth, scientists of The Earth League alliance conclude that “too little was done too late” in the last decade, from 2015 to 2025: global warming is on track to exceed 1.5°C in the coming years, with seven of nine planetary boundaries already breached. They also note that progress towards global sustainability goals is lagging: only 15 percent of the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) targets are currently on track for 2030.