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    TUHOKlimaticka zmena / Destroying the Future Is the Most Cost-Effective


    "Given the sheer enormity of climate change, it’s okay to be depressed, to grieve. But please, don’t stay there too long. Join me in pure, unadulterated, righteous anger."

    "I don’t want your hope. I don’t want you to be hopeful. ... I want you to act. Once you start to act, the hope is everywhere."

    "Our best scientists tell us insistently that a calamity is unfolding, that the life-support systems of the Earth are being damaged in ways that threaten our survival. Yet in the face of these facts we carry on as usual."

    Rostouci hladiny oceanu, zmena atmosferickeho proudeni, zmeny v distribuci srazek a sucha. Zmeny karbonoveho, fosforoveho a dusikoveho cyklu, okyselovani oceanu. Jake jsou bezpecnostni rizika a jake potencialni klady dramatickych zmen fungovani zemskeho systemu?
    Ale take jak funguji masove dezinformacni kampane ropneho prumyslu a boj o verejne mineni na prahu noveho klimatickeho rezimu post-holocenu.
    rozbalit záhlaví
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    +1
    L4MA: mozna urodna puda neexistuje, ani mezigeneracni vedomi neexistuje, natoz planetarni
    L4MA
    L4MA --- ---
    1 odpověď
    TADEAS: libi se mi, ze pan Hallam presedlal z WW2/holocaust strasaka na slavery guilt viz TADEAS: "Why do you think the Guardian supported liberal slave owners two hundred years ago?" ale porad nechape, ze retorika "The mass death of billions" ani "the greatest ever act of vandalism towards the lives and livelihoods of our children" proste nepada na urodnou pudu. :D
    TADEAS
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    +3
    J Pecho
    https://www.facebook.com/share/1ARRjYrRdu/

    Koncom októbra 2024 zasiahla oblasť Valencie jedna z najničivejších prívalových povodní v moderných dejinách Španielska. Na meteorologickej stanici v meste Turís spadlo za 16 hodín neuveriteľných 771,8 mm zrážok (takmer ročný úhrn), pričom za jedinú hodinu napršalo rekordných 184,6 mm – najvyššia hodinová hodnota zaznamenaná v histórii krajiny. Katastrofa si podľa dostupných zdrojov vyžiadala 230 obetí a spôsobila obrovské materiálne škody.

    Nová štúdia publikovaná včera (17.2.2026) v časopise Nature Communications sa pokúsila odpovedať na zásadnú otázku: o koľko bola táto extrémna udalosť zosilnená vplyvom antropogénnej klimatickej zmeny? Autori použili numerický model WRF (verzia 4.5) v kilometrovom rozlíšení a tzv. „storyline“ prístup. To znamená, že simulovali tú istú synoptickú situáciu dvakrát – raz v podmienkach dnešnej už ovplyvnenej klímy a následne v hypotetickej predindustriálnej klíme, približne o 1,08 °C chladnejšej. Nešlo teda o výpočet pravdepodobnosti, ale o porovnanie intenzity toho istého typu búrkového systému v teplejšom a chladnejšom podnebí.

    Výsledky sú mimoriadne zaujímavé. Hodinová intenzita zrážok vyšla v dnešných podmienkach približne o 20 % vyššia na každý stupeň oteplenia. To je takmer trojnásobok klasického fyzikálneho odhadu 7 % na °C, vyplývajúceho z Clausius–Clapeyronovho vzťahu. Pri šesťhodinových úhrnoch model ukázal nárast dokonca až o 21 %, plocha územia s extrémnym úhrnom nad 180 mm sa zväčšila o 50 až 55 % a celkový objem zrážok nad povodím rieky Júcar bol vyšší o približne 19 %.

    Dôležité je, že zosilnenie nebolo spôsobené iba vyšším obsahom vodnej pary v atmosfére. Model poukázal aj na dynamické a mikrofyziálne zmeny v samotnej búrke: množstvo zrážkovej vody v atmosférickom stĺpci (precipitable water) bolo vyššie o takmer 12 %, maximálna intenzita výstupných prúdov vzrástla o podobnú hodnotu, množstvo krúp (graupelu) v oblaku stúplo o viac než 30 % a efektivita premeny vlhkosti na dážď sa zvýšila o približne 12 %. Inými slovami, teplejšia klíma nielenže „dodala viac paliva“, ale zároveň umožnila silnejšiu a efektívnejšiu konvekciu.

    Štatistická významnosť rozdielov bola testovaná na 99 % hladine spoľahlivosti. Autori zároveň upozorňujú, že ide o analýzu jednej konkrétnej udalosti a o podmienené porovnanie – odpoveď na otázku „ako by sa táto búrka správala v chladnejšom svete“, nie „o koľko je dnes pravdepodobnejšia“. Napriek tomu výsledky naznačujú, že krátkodobé extrémne zrážky v Stredomorí môžu rásť rýchlejšie, než by sme očakávali na základe jednoduchých fyzikálnych vzťahov.

    Pre prax to má zásadné dôsledky. Ak hodinové lejaky zosilňujú tempom blízkym 20 % na každý stupeň oteplenia, potom návrhové parametre kanalizácií, protipovodňových opatrení či systémov včasného varovania môžu byť výrazne poddimenzované.

    Valencia 2024 tak nie je len tragédiou, ale aj jasným signálom, že v teplejšom svete môžu byť extrémne prejavy počasia nielen silnejšie, ale aj iné, než na aké sme boli doteraz zvyknutí.

    Zdroj:

    Human-induced climate change amplification on storm dynamics in Valencia’s 2024 catastrophic flash flood | Nature Communications
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-026-68929-9
    TADEAS
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    1 odpověď
    TADEAS:

    R Hallam
    https://www.facebook.com/share/189Dxz3LnW/

    Not only is the present generation engaged in the greatest ever act of vandalism towards the lives and livelihoods of our children, but it is now saying - don't worry the situation is

    ‘Daunting but doable’

    Psychosis drenched in obscenity.
    TADEAS
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    +1
    Promoting the National Defense by Ensuring an Adequate Supply of Elemental Phosphorus and Glyphosate-Based Herbicides – The White House
    https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/02/promoting-the-national-defense-by-ensuring-an-adequate-supply-of-elemental-phosphorus-and-glyphosate-based-herbicides/

    Trump has issued an executive order invoking the Defense Production Act of 1950, a law that allows a president to direct and prioritize industrial production in the name of national defense. The order is designed to boost domestic production of glyphosate, a widely used weedkiller that has been at the center of major health-related lawsuits.

    It specifically instructs federal agencies to ensure that any resulting rules or directives do not undermine the financial stability of U.S. producers of these materials. “Making America Healthy Again”? It looks more like protecting chemical manufacturers once again.
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    +9
    Jestli jste pozorovali, co se děje už rok za oceánem, a dělali si poznámky, určitě víte, že jedny z prvních škrtů se týkaly národních parků.

    A nejen národních parků, ale i institucí, co řeší předpovědi počasí (protože řeší i data a klima). A ejhle, ono se to týká i předpovědí mimořádných živelních událostí a tím pádem včasné přípravy na ně.

    Takže ano, i u nás škrtáme v národních parcích a i u nás škrtáme v instituci, co předpovídá rizika povodní, tornád a podobných jevů. Co by se asi tak mohlo stát, šetřit je potřeba.

    Další rána pro národní parky. Musí vybrat, koho propustí — Deník N
    https://denikn.cz/1977050/dalsi-rana-pro-narodni-parky-ministerstvu-musi-napsat-koho-propusti/?cst=82c63affa1e89e0ab887bef301ced5cfbc9a85a082e1d289be2cc96de5445eb9
    ERGOSUM
    ERGOSUM --- ---
    -6
    TADEAS: Všiml sis, že pan sociolog také nepřesvědčuje fakty o větrných elektrárnách, ale útočí na všechny kdo nejsou pro?
    Vlastně tím ukazuje, že není jiný.
    O větrných elektrárnách to nevypovídá nic.
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    1 odpověď+4
    Je potřeba mluvit o tom, že na řadě míst neprobíhá debata o záměru větrných elektráren ve faktické rovině, ale jsou tam importované argumenty hráčů, kterým jde o úplně jiné zájmy - prodloužení spalování uhlí, posilování energetické závislosti či rozklad evropské unie. Vzniká nepřehledný mix, jak ho v článku popisuje Vojtěch Pecka.

    "Podle sociologa a experta na klimatické dezinformace Vojtěcha Pecky neexistuje jeden jednoznačný důvod, proč se lidé zapojují do odporu proti větrným elektrárnám. Jedná se spíše o prolínání tendencí ke konspiračnímu myšlení, strachu z ohrožení krajiny, případně ekonomických a geopolitických zájmů. „Ti lidé jsou často přesvědčení, že jdou něco zachraňovat,“ vysvětluje Pecka.

    Zároveň ale upozorňuje, že i když může být rozhořčení části veřejnosti do určité míry pochopitelné, často se opírá o nepravdivé či zveličené informace. „Významnou roli také hrají silní aktéři spjatí s fosilním průmyslem a dlouhodobé působení ruských informačních operací, které systematicky zpochybňují obnovitelné zdroje a klimatickou politiku Evropské unie,“ vysvětluje."

    Odpor proti větrným elektrárnám pomáhá organizovat slovenský jogín
    https://denikreferendum.cz/clanek/238553-odpor-proti-vetrnym-elektrarnam-pomaha-organizovat-slovensky-jogin
    TADEAS
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    +4
    IEA, NO PROGRESS ON COAL CONSUMPTION TO 2030

    International Energy Agency, Coal 2025.

    2030 World coal consumption 55% higher than 2000, and the same as 2020.

    China 2030 projected same as 2020.

    China's big 2020 jump is maintained

    World headed for climatic biospere collapse fast.

    https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/113a8274-500c-4684-951f-947d25bef3c9/Coal2025.pdf

    FB-IMG-1771415699915
    TADEAS
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    +3
    R Hallam

    Isn't this also treason - only publish a "partial" version of a report of the greatest ever threat to the UK state? Again - just saying - obviously people will say in 2026 calling it treason is bonkers, but then in 2036 won't people be saying it's bonkers that anyone cannot see that it is treason?
    "On that, the UK’s Joint Intelligence Committee, on which heads of MI5 and MI6 sit, would surely agree. Last month, a partial version of its national security assessment of global biodiversity loss was published, and it came with a stark warning: some ecosystems will start to collapse “by 2030 or sooner”, posing an immediate threat to national security, prosperity, food systems and public health. There won’t be enough water for people to drink or food to eat; livelihoods will be lost; displacement and migration will accelerate, and geopolitical competition for resources will intensify."

    Biodiversity collapse threatens UK security, intelligence chiefs warn | Biodiversity | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/jan/20/biodiversity-collapse-threatens-uk-security-intelligence-chiefs-warn
    TADEAS
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    +3
    FB-IMG-1771408930692
    TADEAS
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    P Worms
    https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1DbramL4ax/


    We live in a 10% world.

    90% of all the birds, fishes and animals that populated this world are gone. They've been replaced by us, by our fields, our plantations, our livestock.

    Signs of this are everywhere. And now, in February, one of the signs hides right in Chaucer's "Parliament of Fowls", written around 1380:

    "For this was on Saint Valentines day,
    Whan every bird cometh to choosehis mate,
    Of every kinde that men thinke may;
    And that so huge a noise gan they make,
    That erthe and air and tree and every lake
    So full was that hardly was there space
    For me to stand, so full was all the place."

    Read that again: "So huge a noise".
    "So full was that hardly was there space For me to stand, so full was all the place."

    What a world Chaucer must have known! What a world bursting with sound and life! There were a few birds out in the garden, last week. But they are few. The noise? Absent. Some chirping, interrupted by silence. And I can stand anywhere I like.
    It is February. The days are drawing longer. Nature awakens after her wintry slumber. And I am glad. But I cannot help but mourn all that has been lost.
    TADEAS
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    French prosecutors intervene in defense of TotalEnergies in climate trial
    https://www.lemonde.fr/en/environment/article/2026/02/17/french-prosecutors-intervene-in-defense-of-totalenergies-in-climate-trial_6750572_114.html

    In France's first major climate trial against an oil and gas giant, opening Thursday, February 19 at the Paris Court of Justice, TotalEnergies will receive unexpected support from the prosecutor's office. Since 2020, a coalition of advocacy groups (Notre Affaire à Tous, Sherpa, France Nature Environnement) and the City of Paris have asked the courts to require TotalEnergies to drastically reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by cutting its hydrocarbon production, in order to comply with the Paris Agreement target of limiting global warming to 1.5°C.

    The case is based on France's law on due diligence, enacted in 2017. It requires companies with more than 5,000 employees in France (or over 10,000 worldwide) to implement a plan to identify risks and prevent serious violations of human rights, health and the environment linked to their activities and those of their subsidiaries, suppliers and subcontractors.

    In an unusual move, the prosecutor's office intervened on Tuesday, February 3, as a "joined party," aligning with TotalEnergies. Such intervention by the prosecutor's office in ongoing civil proceedings is extremely rare and justified only when issues of general interest are at stake.

    According to the brief, reviewed by Le Monde, the prosecutor's office, like the multinational, considers that "the scope of the due diligence law does not extend to climate change." It argues that global warming is a "worldwide phenomenon," that it "concerns everyone, but is essentially the responsibility of the international community and states." It calls for a restrictive interpretation of the law. According to its conclusions, "it cannot be up to large French companies alone to bear a global obligation to protect human rights and fundamental freedoms. The same applies to the environment."
    TADEAS
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    The Evil Genius Of The Global Food System | Richard Hames Meets Charles C. Mann
    https://youtu.be/QV99s0Ny6tg?si=2ZQQePvLti8tqA1u


    Richard Hames presents a new show about the systems that make modern life possible. We’ve made the planet into a giant machine, filled with the strangest stories – and now it’s all coming apart. It’s time to Do Your Own Research.

    There’s nothing in the world more important than the food system. The twentieth century was scarred by enormous famines – and, like the one in Gaza, they are still deliberately engineered. But since the 1970s, the absolute number of deaths from famine has dropped by over 90%.

    On a global scale, we now make so much food that farmers will sometimes destroy it just to keep the prices high.

    How is there so much food? How did we get to a world where, globally, people are more likely to be obese than underweight? And, amid all these calories, how are so many people still malnourished? Why is it suddenly all so expensive? And is it all about to come crashing down?

    Charles C. Mann explains the historical power of bird shit, the strange reason Indian scientists put wheat in a nuclear reactor, and how the genius who made modern farming possible also invented the gas that was used to murder millions in the Holocaust.
    TADEAS
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    1 odpověď
    ‘Daunting but doable’: Europe urged to prepare for 3C of global heating | Climate crisis | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/feb/16/europe-climate-advisory-board-3c-global-heating

    Maarten van Aalst, a member of the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change (ESABCC), said the continent was already “paying a price” for its lack of preparation but that adapting to a hotter future was in part “common sense and low-hanging fruit”.

    “It is a daunting task, but at the same time quite a doable task. It’s not rocket science,” said van Aalst, who used to lead the climate centre at the International Red Cross and Red Crescent and is now the director general of the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI).

    The ESABCC describes current efforts to adapt to rising temperatures as “insufficient, largely incremental [and] often coming too late” in a new report that advises officials to prepare for a world 2.8-3.3C hotter than preindustrial levels by 2100.

    ...

    Weather extremes in Europe in recent years have at times surprised climate scientists with their strength and adaptation experts with their lethality as rising temperatures have warped the climate.

    Heavy rains supercharged by climate breakdown killed 134 people in Germany’s Ahr valley in 2021 and 229 people in the Valencia region of Spain in 2024. Across the continent, summer heat kills many tens of thousands of people each year, with studies attributing between half and two-thirds of the death toll to the rise in temperatures caused by fossil fuel pollution. Last year’s wildfires, meanwhile, torched more of Europe than scientists have ever recorded.

    Last week, Portugal was urged to draw up climate adaptation plans as the country was hit by an unprecedented series of storms that killed at least 16 people and caused an estimated €775m (£675m) of damage.
    TADEAS
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    +4
    TADEAS: lol

    the EU’s scientific advisers urged Europe to prepare for a world that is 3C hotter by the end of the century – double the level of global heating that world leaders promised to aim for under the 2015 Paris agreement – and stress-test even more extreme scenarios.

    France’s national adaptation strategy, published last year, seeks to prepare it for a near-apocalyptic 4C of global warming.

    “We are now at a point where these events are occurring at a speed and with a force that we have never seen before,” Barbut told LCI. “Clearly, what we need to do now is to put adaptation policies in place that will enable us to build resilience in our territories.”
    TADEAS
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    1 odpověď+2
    flooded futures of today

    France issues red flood alerts after ‘exceptional’ rainfall | France | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/feb/17/red-flood-alerts-storm-nils-exceptional-rainfall

    “People who follow climate issues have been warning us for a long time that events like this will happen more often,” she said on Tuesday, the day after visiting the flood-stricken Gironde region, in comments to TV news channel LCI. “In fact, tomorrow has arrived.”

    Lucie Chadourne-Facon, director of Vigicrues, France’s flood monitoring service, said the succession of rainy disturbances had been “exceptional” and that soils were so full of water that as little as 20-30mm of rainfall could trigger floods.

    “We are dealing with two parallel phenomena,” she told broadcaster BFMTV at the weekend.

    “The fact that it is territorially widespread means … all the little rivers that have reacted are flowing into big rivers and everything swells by propagation,” she said. “And at the same time, we’re still getting rain that is reactivating the flooding.”
    XCHAOS
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    +2
    Tohle už tu jednou bylo, ale stejně:
    COVID-19 cleared the skies but also supercharged methane emissions - Ars Technica
    https://arstechnica.com/science/2026/02/covid-19-cleared-the-skies-but-also-supercharged-methane-emissions/

    Možná by místo nějakého šíleného geoinženýringu s aerosolama bylo jednodušší prostě hlídat v jakém poměru různé škodliviny vypouštíme, aby se optimalizovalo odbourávání toho, co je odbouratelné?
    XCHAOS
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    +1
    Trump asi obnoví výrobu dreadnoughtů. nebo nevím, co bude armáda s tím uhlím dělat :-)
    Trump orders the military to make agreements with coal power plants - Ars Technica
    https://arstechnica.com/science/2026/02/trumps-latest-plan-to-revive-coal-power-make-the-military-buy-it/
    TADEAS
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    TADEAS:

    The Retreat – Resist – Respond framework (sometimes adapted as Protect – Accommodate – Retreat or Resist – Accept – Direct) is a strategic approach to climate change adaptation and environmental risk management, particularly focusing on coastal management and ecosystem sustainability. This framework helps decision-makers choose between fighting natural forces, adapting to them, or moving away from high-risk areas.
    TADEAS
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    1 odpověď+3
    Flooded Futures: Understanding the Rising Threats and How We Prepare | Stefan Rahmstorf
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wtd8ZFWIFMA


    Flooding has shaped human settlement for millennia—but the scale, speed and complexity of flood risk in the 21st century are unprecedented. In this opening keynote at the Holcim Foundation Forum 2025, climate scientist Stefan Rahmstorf sets the scientific foundation for the Forum, outlining why flood risk is accelerating globally and why urgent, coordinated action is now unavoidable.

    Rahmstorf presents the full spectrum of flooding—from coastal, riverine and pluvial flooding to groundwater and compound flood events—showing how multiple hazards increasingly coincide to create extreme impacts. Drawing on the latest climate science, he explains how rising sea levels, intensifying storms and shifting precipitation patterns are being amplified by urbanisation, land-use change and ageing infrastructure designed for past conditions.

    A central focus of the talk is time. Rahmstorf challenges the audience to consider what we are planning for—and over what horizons—by examining projections for 2050 and 2100, the limits and strengths of flood models, and the growing role of real-time data, AI-driven analysis and historical records in improving preparedness.

    The keynote also addresses the wider societal consequences of flooding, including cascading infrastructure failures, economic exposure, climate migration and the question of who ultimately pays for precautionary measures. Closing the talk, Rahmstorf frames the critical questions that will guide the Forum discussions, positioning the Retreat – Resist – Respond framework as essential for navigating an era of accelerating climate risk.
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