Interesting interview with Earth scientist Bill McGuire.
One of the most concerning points he discusses is a new (as yet unreviewed) paper suggesting that current satellite observations aren't matching our understanding of Earth's energy imbalance. In other words, the planet appears to be warming faster than existing models can fully explain. As this paper has not yet been peer reviewed, these findings should be treated as provisional until they have undergone independent scientific scrutiny. If they do hold up, they suggest we could exceed 2°C of warming by around 2040, approach 3°C by around 2050, and continue rising thereafter, pushing Earth's climate towards temperatures not experienced for millions of years.
The video also explores the economic consequences of climate breakdown.
The Institute and Faculty of Actuaries, the professionals who assess financial risk for banks, insurers and pension funds argue that many economic models are fundamentally underestimating climate risk. Their concern is that most financial institutions treat climate impacts as isolated events, rather than recognising that droughts, crop failures, floods, migration, conflict and supply chain disruption can cascade into one another, creating far greater economic damage than the sum of the individual parts.
Their warning is stark. Without immediate action to change course, severe climate impacts are not only plausible but could threaten future global prosperity.
To illustrate the scale of the disagreement, many mainstream economic models still rely on assumptions originating from a model published in 2000, which estimated climate change would reduce global GDP by only around 3% by 2100. By contrast, actuarial risk assessments, produced by people whose job is to price and underwrite multi billion dollar financial risks, warn of around a 15% reduction in global GDP by 2050, rising to as much as 50% by 2100. Some actuarial scenarios even suggest the possibility of widespread societal breakdown beginning around the 2040s, with catastrophic human consequences later this century.
It does make you wonder whether the old contrarian slogan, "We are the carbon they want to get rid of," has ended up applying in the opposite direction.
The Insurance Industry Predicts Mass Death: How Do We Live A Good Life? https://youtu.be/9Q93ZE54yaE?is=q0M2JBIgKLEgw6ZZ&t=4m0