CHOSIE: A ještě přidám tuto studii, připomenu si povvšimnout, že se často hovoří o "dočasném" decouplingu (jak v této tak i v jiných publikacích)
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X24006861#s0065

In order to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals, it is necessary to actively promote a coordinated and balanced relationship between carbon dioxide emissions (CO2e), material footprints (MF) and human development, based on the economic and social development stages of different countries and their material resource endowments.

This study comprehensively evaluated the nexus between CO2e, MF, and human development index (HDI) in 151 countries from 1990 to 2019 based on the modified coupling coordination degree model and the improved decoupling index model.

The results show that, both the global MF per capita and HDI have maintained an increasing trend, and the MF per capita has been increasing significantly faster than the HDI. The trend of CO2e per capita is slowly dropping, with very high HDI countries being the main contributors. Besides, global regional differences in CO2e per capita and MF per capita are still expanding.

Net energy exporting countries with high HDI have advantages to achieve decoupling of CO2 emissions.

Net energy importing countries with low HDI shows a significant coupling trend in material footprints.

The study shows that, as the level of human development continues to rise, humanity has made the leap from intermediate to advanced levels of development. However, the real impacts of unsustainability, like the accelerated depletion of natural resources and the massive emission of greenhouse gases, have also intensified.
In the current context of globalization, although achieving a temporary absolute decoupling between CO2e, MF and HDI may occur frequently, maintaining this trend over the long term remains challenging.

SHEFIK: Také jsem nezmínil pouze CO2, což není úplně dobré měřítko, ale naši spotřebu materiálu a energie, tam je ta korelace jasná a efektivita tento problém v systému závislém na růstu dlouhodobě neřeší. Ani bych osobně nevytahoval HDP (nebo WDP) pokud by to nebylo zmíněno, ta metrika má sice nějakou hodnotu, ale tak jak je mainstreamově používána je dost zavádějící.

Is Decoupling GDP Growth from Environmental Impact Possible?
Our model demonstrates that growth in GDP ultimately cannot plausibly be decoupled from growth in material and energy use, demonstrating categorically that GDP growth cannot be sustained indefinitely. It is therefore misleading to develop growth-oriented policy around the expectation that decoupling is possible. However, we also note that GDP has been shown to be a poor proxy for societal wellbeing, something it was never designed to measure, and GDP growth is therefore a questionable long-term societal goal in any case. The mounting costs of “uneconomic growth” [43] suggest that the pursuit of decoupling–if it were possible–in order to sustain GDP growth would be a misguided effort.

https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0164733#sec004


MINER: Článek jsem nečetl, s H. Ritchie mám už zkušenost a stačilo mi psát 5 stránkový rozbor jejího videa, které bylo plné manipulace s daty (ironicky od někoho jehož profese je "data scientist"). Takže vycházím ze zkušeností s podobnými články, kde ve zkratce pár malých zemí, které importují carbon/resource/energy-intensive produkty a kde mají tu možnost stavět ekonomiku na službách/IT/know-how.. není něco, co by dokazovalo, že je decoupling možný ve velkém meřítku a jedná se spíše o hrstku výjimek. A jak už bylo zmíněno, i samotné CO2 není v tomto případě tak dobrá metrika, je lepší se dívat po stopě co se týče materiálů/energie, nebo např. máme koncept "Ecological footprint"

CHOSIE: Ten článek nevynechává fakt o přesunutí produkce do Číny a Indie. Doslova je zmiňuje.

Když už to posunuješ do osobní roviny a z něčeho je obviňuješ, tak si přečti aspoň, jestli to fakt tvrdí.

Konec konců kvůli tomu bude od 2026 EU zavádět Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism.

Přesunutí produkce je relevantní výhrada. Ten článek i odkazuje na další, kde to řeší globálně.

Že rozvojové země maj vyšší emise, nikdo nerozporuje, ale nedokazuje to nemožnost decouplingu. To by mezi tím musel být přímá úměra. Což z dat nevypadá.

A to nevypadá to tak ani z faktu, že celosvětové emise letos či příští rok podle predikcí kulminují, ale HDP dál roste celosvětově.

ZAHRADKAR: skvele formulovany

A tohle: "Jinak se snazime dost o low-carbon-footprint, ale ne proto, abychom se tim nejak odlisovali, ale spis proto, ze to jde ruku v ruce se zdravejsim zivotem (zelenina ze zahrady, prace se drevem misto fitka, atp)..."

Je imho to nejdulezitejsi. Najit si ty 'blizky' benefity v tech 'dalekejch' (casove, prostorove) problemech, protoze pak clovek zjisti, ze je pak v jeho osobnim zajmu zit s dlouhodobymi cili.

Na prikladu volnyho casu/cestovani - sedim doma u tv, sedim v praci, sedim u piva, chci ve volnym case jeste sedet v aute a jezdit kazdej den na x vejletu? Spousta sousedu v kempu u more to tak delalo. Nez aby nasli zabavu v okoli, bylo pro ne jednodussi sedet a hledat na mobilu kam pojedou, aby mohli dalsi cas sedet v aute a buhvi jakpu sedaci atrakci si uzit. To pro telo ani ducha zdravy...

Na prikladu prace - mam stejnou zkusenost. Rict, ze nechces letet pred par lety bylo sprosty slovo. Ano, jednou, dvakrat rocne videt tym z pulky sveta fajn (vuci tymovy efektivite/vztahum), ale proc vsechny hnat do letadel kazdej mesic? A presne jak rikas, lidi, co nemeli koc prace a chteli si uzit cestovani byli schopny obhajovat do krve, jak to nic nezmeni, jak je to marginalni problem...

Ted se rok setrilo a najednou to jde, staci zapnout kameru obcas (ktera zere taky dost energie - v prepoctu na data cca 500MB-1GB za hodinovej meeting s kamerou). Tak ted uz je sposty jen rikat, ze bez kamery to jde taky (overeno nekolika lety s Indama na drate bez kamery).

Proste i to budovani infrastruktur ma prostory pro optimalizaci/efektivitu. Ale nejde to zobecnit, to rozhodnuti zase musi udelat kazdej sam dle situace.

Atd atd.

TADEAS, YMLADRIS: Ty hodnoty jsou univerzalni, vsak to na konci sam pises - tj ne jen krestanske. Interpretace je ruzna, u nas bych nerekl, ze nejak zvlast krestanska. Naopak, ale to je na dele. Jen pro priklad: v nasi domacnosti se nejak nenosi zachranovat vsechno a vsechny, jsme casto konfrontovani se smrti v prirode (na zahrade, ve vcelach, v lese). To je na dele, ale jeden priklad za vsechny: zena je treba velkym obhajcem euthanazie ...

My se vubec nepokousime o nejake univerzalni hodnoty, nerikam, ze to tak je obecne platne, ze se shodneme na tom, co je laska. V nic takoveho ani neverim. Ale mam takovou zkusenost, ze na pravde se s lidmi vetsinou shodnu, lidi ji jako kvalitu umi identifikovat (nedavno se objevil clanek, ktery nachazi konzistentni vektorove zobrazeni uvnitr LLM, ktere odpovidaji "pravdivosti", takze je mozne, ze je to nejaka vlasnost primo mysleni/mozku). S laskou a krasou uz je to slozitejsi, jsou jeste relativnejsi. Dulezite je, aby to davalo smysl nam, protoze my to pak musime obhajit tem detem. Jestli jim dame dobry obraz sveta nebo ne, to nevim. Ale tak lide jsou v zasade schopni uvazovat racionalne, kdyz se snazi, tj vyhodnotit, zda je jejich chovani v souladu s jejich cily.

Jestlize je hlavni cil prezit, ale pak byt v bezpeci, mit rodinu, atd, dle Maslowa, tak je to vsechno treba nejak vyvazit. Potrebujeme na dovolenou do Indie/USA? Neporebujeme. Potrebujeme do Stredozemi? No, uplne ne, ale pak je to horsi se zdravim na podzim/v zime. Jinak se snazime dost o low-carbon-footprint, ale ne proto, abychom se tim nejak odlisovali, ale spis proto, ze to jde ruku v ruce se zdravejsim zivotem (zelenina ze zahrady, prace se drevem misto fitka, atp)...
TADEAS: jj, ja jsem se naletal po celem svete az dost, takze ja nikoho nesoudim. Jednou jsem si ale uvedomil, ze vetsina tech cest je zbytecnych, ze se to da resit po netu, pak nastesti prisel Covid a uvedomilo si to vice lidi, ja zmenil praci, abych uz cestovat nemusel a jsem za to rad. Chapu, ze pro byznys je treba nekdy osobniho setkani, to asi eliminovat uplne nejde. Nicmene kolik % tvori opravdu nezbytne cesty? IMHO mensinu.

U toho letani je zajimava jedna vec: kdyz jsem pred lety nekde zminil mezi kamarady, ze jsme se rozhodli si to "zakazat", tak na nas dost hledeli a byli taci, kteri nam zacali vysvetlovat, ze je to blbost, ze tim nic nezmenime, ze prece nemuzeme zit jako asketi, atp. Ta reakce byla podobna, jako kdyz jsem opet pret lety oznamil, ze si nedam alkohol. Byli taci, kteri to vzali, ale i taci, kteri meli potrebu me nejak premlouvat. Interpertuju to tak, ze sami vedi, ze by nemeli (letat/pit), ale proste chteji, tak je pochopitelne irituje, kdyz nekdo prestane. Ja ale nikomu nerikam, co ma delat, to je prece kazdeho vec.

Ad hrat hru infrastruktur: ja si porad kladu (nezodpovezenou) otazku: delam to opravdu pro dobro budouci generace, nebo pro sve ego?

Assisted tree migration can preserve the European forest carbon sink under climate change | Nature Climate Change
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-024-02080-5

https://www.novinky.cz/clanek/veda-skoly-klimaticke-zmeny-ohrozuji-uloziste-uhliku-v-evropskych-lesich-pomoci-muze-asistovana-migrace-40481716#dop_ab_variant=0&dop_source_zone_name=novinky.sznhp.box&source=hp&seq_no=5&utm_campaign=abtest218_mobil_bez_boxiku_firem_varB&utm_medium=z-boxiku&utm_source=www.seznam.cz

Pouhé navýšení výsadby stromů v Evropě nebude stačit k účinnému boji proti změně klimatu a zachování kontinentální pozemní uhlíkové zásobárny. Odhalila to nově publikovaná studie Rakouského výzkumného centra pro lesy (BFW), se kterým spolupracovali vědci z mnoha zemí EU včetně týmu z Fakulty lesnické a dřevařské České zemědělské univerzity (ČZU) v Praze.

Jak nyní informovali zástupci ČZU, vědci vyzdvihují stěžejní roli tzv. asistované migrace, tedy výběru nejvhodnějšího zdroje osiva lesních dřevin, nejlépe přizpůsobeného budoucím klimatickým podmínkám. V doposud nejrozsáhlejší výzkumné studii tohoto druhu, publikované ve čtvrtek v odborném časopise Nature Climate Change, výzkumníci analyzovali data z 587 lesních provenienčních pokusů po celé Evropě, zahrnujících 2964 různých proveniencí sedmi hlavních druhů lesních dřevin.

A major milestone: Global climate pollution may have just peaked
https://skepticalscience.com/climate-pollution-maybe-peaked.html

Global society may have finally slammed on the brakes for climate-warming pollution released by human fossil fuel combustion.

According to the Carbon Monitor Project, the total global climate pollution released between February and May 2024 declined slightly from the amount released during the same period in 2023. Many experts believe that the clean energy transition has reached the point where emissions will stabilize and then begin to decline. The critical milestone of peak climate pollution might be happening right now.

petrologistika

Wealthy countries lead in new oil and gas expansion, threatening 12bn tonnes of emissions | Oil and gas companies | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/jul/24/new-oil-gas-emission-data-us-uk

The new oil and gas field licences forecast to be awarded across the world this year are on track to generate the highest level of emissions since those issued in 2018, as heatwaves, wildfires, drought and floods cause death and destruction globally, according to analysis of industry data by the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD).

The 11.9bn tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions – which is roughly the same as China’s annual carbon pollution – resulting over their lifetime from all current and upcoming oil and gas fields forecast to be licensed by the end of 2024 would be greater than the past four years combined. The projection includes licences awarded as of June 2024, as well as the oil and gas blocks open for bidding, under evaluation or planned.

TADEAS:

I've Been Sentenced to 5 Years in Prison - Here's Why
https://rogerhallam.com/5-years-in-prison/

My 'crime'?

Giving a talk on civil disobedience as an effective, evidence-based method for stopping the elite from putting enough carbon in the atmosphere to send us to extinction.

I have given hundreds of similar speeches encouraging nonviolent action and have never been arrested for it. This time I was an advisor to the M25 motorway disruption, recommending the action to go ahead to wake up the British public to societal collapse.

I was not part of the planning or action itself.

What Trump 2.0 Could Mean for the Environment
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/16/climate/trump-epa-regulation.html

“President Trump made America a net exporter of energy for the first time because he cut red tape and gave the industry more freedom to do what they do best — utilize the liquid gold under our feet.” If elected, he would “cancel Joe Biden’s radical mandates, terminate the Green New Scam, and make America energy independent again,” she said.

...

At various points, courts overturned the Trump administration’s attempts to relax restrictions on carbon-dioxide emissions from power plants; blocked a rule that would have limited what scientific studies the E.P.A. could use; and found the administration broke the law when it failed to enact nationwide standards to curb harmful ozone pollution. Judges also rejected attempts to take gray wolves off the endangered species list and to roll back rules that restricted methane leaks from oil and gas wells.

...

The courts could also prove more sympathetic next time around. With three Supreme Court justices appointed by Mr. Trump, the court now has a conservative supermajority that has shown a deep skepticism toward environmental regulation. The court has sometimes blocked rules that were still being adjudicated in lower courts or before they were implemented.

In June, the Supreme Court overturned the so-called Chevron doctrine, which for 40 years said that courts should defer to government agencies when a law is unclear. That ruling could undercut the regulatory authority of many federal agencies. The Supreme Court also halted E.P.A. rules that limited smokestack pollution blowing across state borders, overturned expanded protections for millions of acres of wetlands and narrowed the agency’s ability to regulate emissions from power plants.

...

many environmentalists say that while they might block some moves, they can’t force a Trump administration to adopt policies that will cut greenhouse gases. And the window to limit global warming to relatively low levels is rapidly closing.

“There’s no skeleton key that’s going to protect everything Biden has accomplished,” said Sam Ricketts, founder of S2 Strategies, a clean-energy consulting group. “I’d love to say that there is a fail-safe plan to protect the gains we’ve made should Trump be president again. There is not.”

SHEFIK: Renewable energy is the only answer for long-term security. The UK has hundreds of small businesses producing innovative renewable technology that can provide our energy needs. What’s been holding them back is an inconsistent and uncertain investment environment. This is particularly relevant for decarbonising heat. It’s responsible for about 37 percent of total UK carbon emissions, yet is consistently forgotten about in the rush to electrify everything. The next Government would be wise not to neglect it - we can’t reach net zero without renewable heat."

TADEAS:

Savory Institute


Denmark recently became the first country in the world to put a tax on livestock emissions. The tax will go into effect in 2030, and after a 60% tax break is applied, farmers will end up paying 120 krone ($17) per tonne of CO2-equivalent coming from their livestock, which will eventually rise to 300 krone ($43) per tonne in 2035.

This move comes on the heels of other measures the Danish government has implemented in recent years to reduce emissions and meet climate goals and, given that agriculture is one of Denmark’s largest sources of emissions — with pork and dairy being their largest industries — this is an opportunity to make some headway towards those goals.

We at Savory are particularly disappointed in this tax given that our new Savory Foundation — which focuses on funding large-scale grassland regeneration projects around the world — is based in Denmark, but more than that, we have serious concerns with regards to how this new tax makes no effort to incentivize a transition towards carbon-sequestering forms of regenerative grazing.

Yes, our global agricultural system is massively flawed and contributes significant amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, but this is a blanket tax on ALL forms of livestock management that makes no differentiation between land-degrading carbon-emitting forms of production or land-regenerating carbon-sequestering forms of livestock production.

If Denmark really wanted to incentivize a transition towards a more sustainable livestock industry — which we agree is needed — they could create a sliding scale for this tax so that regenerative farmers who are improving soil health and sequestering carbon aren’t penalized. This could be accomplished either through soil samples analyzed in a lab — even though that would be costly to producers so ideally would be subsidized by the government — or modeling based on the latest research of what’s possible, not just average emissions of the typical producer which is the basis for this tax.

Still, even if we were to expand the conversation from just emissions to one that also includes drawdown, the focus on greenhouse gases is a reductionist view that misses the forest for the trees. The climate crisis is intrinsically tied to our global loss of biodiversity, our broken water cycles that amplify droughts and flooding, and our impoverished soils, rural communities, food systems, and everything in between.

At the intersection of all these issues is ecosystem function, so why do we only ever hear about carbon? The global narrative surrounding climate change would be best served by a shift towards restoring ecosystem function. Imagine an alternate world where Denmark's new tax was one that took a more holistic look at ecosystem function — assessing not just carbon but also biodiversity and water-holding capacity — and rather than penalizing everyone involved it paid farmers who demonstrated positive improvements to their ecosystem processes?

Z cyklu #doomed

BP imposes hiring freeze and halts new offshore wind projects | BP | The Guardian
https://amp.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/jun/27/bp-imposes-hiring-freeze-and-halts-new-offshore-wind-projects

New boss Murray Auchincloss reverses move away from fossil fuels, which had weighed on company’s share price

The head of BP has imposed a hiring freeze and halted new offshore wind projects, in an apparent attempt to placate investors who are unhappy with the oil company’s green targets.
...
Looney, who had committed BP to some of the industry’s greenest climate goals, was ousted last September for failing to disclose relationships with colleagues.

The decision to slow BP’s green ambitions has stoked concerns that Looney’s plan to move the company away from fossil fuels, with a pledge to “become a net zero company by 2050 or sooner”, may soon be derailed.

BP has come under pressure from shareholders over its green targets because some renewable projects have proved more costly than expected, and profits from oil and gas have soared after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine more than two years ago.

In response, the company set out plans earlier this year to cut oil and gas production by just 25% between 2019 and 2030 – well short of its previous target of a 40% reduction over the same timeframe.
...
Earlier this month BP’s rival Shell set out its own plans to scale back its green growth ambitions, reducing the number of staff working on low-carbon solutions by about 200 roles while shifting the focus towards high-profit oil projects and expanding its gas business.