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    TUHOKlimaticka zmena / Destroying the Future Is the Most Cost-Effective


    "Given the sheer enormity of climate change, it’s okay to be depressed, to grieve. But please, don’t stay there too long. Join me in pure, unadulterated, righteous anger."


    "I don’t want your hope. I don’t want you to be hopeful. ... I want you to act. Once you start to act, the hope is everywhere."

    "Our best scientists tell us insistently that a calamity is unfolding, that the life-support systems of the Earth are being damaged in ways that threaten our survival. Yet in the face of these facts we carry on as usual."

    Rostouci hladiny oceanu, zmena atmosferickeho proudeni, zmeny v distribuci srazek a sucha. Zmeny karbonoveho, fosforoveho a dusikoveho cyklu, okyselovani oceanu. Jake jsou bezpecnostni rizika a jake potencialni klady dramatickych zmen fungovani zemskeho systemu?
    Ale take jak funguji masove dezinformacni kampane ropneho prumyslu a boj o verejne mineni na prahu noveho klimatickeho rezimu post-holocenu.
    rozbalit záhlaví
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    China doesn’t want to lead alone on climate policies, senior adviser warns | Cop30 | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/nov/19/china-doesnt-want-to-take-lead-on-climate-policies-alone-senior-adviser-warns

    In an exclusive interview, Wang said theChinese president, Xi Jinping, was committed to the energy transition for the long haul despite resistance from some industrial sectors. He explained that China’s priority in Belém was to help the Brazilian presidency achieve a successful climate conference, and to show the benefits of multilateral decision-making. On Tuesday, the first draft of a possible agreement was published at the Cop30 summit, reviving the hotly contested plan to transition away from fossil fuels.

    China is the planet’s biggest emitter of carbon dioxide from burning of coal, oil and gas, but it is now also a world leader in the production, installation and export of wind turbines, solar panels and electric cars.

    He said China wanted to “speed up and scale up its efforts to provide more global public goods” despite serious geopolitical and economic tensions and unilateral barriers to trade, including tariffs. The country’s emissions have been flat or falling for 18 months.

    He estimated China’s per capita power consumption would continue to grow from 7,000 kilowatt hours in 2024 to “well over 10,000, maybe 12,000” – but there would be a steady move away from fossil fuels to wind and solar, as well as green hydrogen, green ammonia and electric vehicles. Along with a new power grid system, he said the country was in the midst of a “comprehensive green transition of social economic development”.

    As in many countries, Wang suggested there was some resistance to change, but the president had sent a clear signal about the direction of travel. “Even in China, we have a lot of industrial conflict ... but the central government, including President Xi, is very clear to us that we must, in the next five years’ time, speed up the new power system.”

    In the absence of the US, China’s role is even more crucial than usual to the success or failure of Cop30, where the Brazilian president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, has urged his negotiators to lay the foundations for an exit ramp out of the fossil fuel era.
    XCHAOS
    XCHAOS --- ---
    CHOSIE: no právě, další generace se na nás bude koukat a ptát se, proč jsme nic neudělali. Je fakt, že přístup "be the change you want to see in the world" i "think globally, act locally" u mě prostě nezafungoval. Prostě svět se nehodlá změnit. Jedinou naději představuje probíhající pokles populace na všech kontinentech kromě Afriky, a v Africe se nemusí topit, takže...

    Co je ale absolutně nesmyslné je představa, že by se podařil nějaký industriální carbon capture. Ten prostě není možný. Nejvíc, v co můžeme doufat, je nějaký efektivní boj s arktickými lesními požáry... a posun severské tajgy na sever by pak mohl po nějaké době, kdy už stromy rychle rostou, možná něco řešit...
    SCHWEPZ
    SCHWEPZ --- ---
    China’s CO2 emissions have been flat or falling for past 18 months, analysis finds | Environment | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/nov/11/china-co2-emissions-flat-or-falling-for-past-18-months-analysis-finds?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

    World’s biggest polluter on track to hit peak emissions target early but miss goal for cutting carbon intensity
    IOM_NUKSO
    IOM_NUKSO --- ---
    Turning CO2 into clean fuel faster and cheaper
    A new copper-magnesium-iron catalyst transforms CO2 into CO at low temperatures with record-breaking efficiency and stability. The discovery paves the way for affordable, scalable production of carbon-neutral synthetic fuels
    Turning CO2 into clean fuel faster and cheaper | ScienceDaily
    https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2025/11/251105050712.htm
    IOM_NUKSO
    IOM_NUKSO --- ---
    Abandoned coal mine drainage identified as a significant source of carbon emissions
    https://phys.org/news/2025-11-abandoned-coal-drainage-significant-source.html
    CHOSIE
    CHOSIE --- ---
    TADEAS:
    Za mě zkrátka za těch pár let co od něj občas něco vidím se snaží diskreditovat to co vybočuje z mainstreamu a přibarvuje realitu (podobně jako Gates/Richie, jestli si pamatuji byla mezi nimi i nějaká spolupráce) a označení "hopium" je na místě - můj problém tedy je, že to není vědecky upřímné - například jako argument používá zjednodušené ZEC modely a TCRE/CWC odhady, zatímco kritizuje ECS odhady a ignoruje ESS. Nemluvě o výrocích, které jsou lživé.

    To že potom hází do jednoho pytle to co vybočuje (např. James Hansen, či obecně kritika IPCC apod.) společně s lidmi, kteří propagují NTHE (near-term human extinction) - např. McPherson, Dowd - je přinejmenším nečestné. A stejně lze za "nečestné" a "neupřímné" označit ty, kteří NTHE hlásají, je to v podstatě druhá strana mince.

    Takže to není jen o nějaké bublině, tady se bavíme o datech, která selektivně ignoruje. Pokud je třeba ta zmíněná kritika IPCC nebo publikace Hansena fakticky špatná, tak to lze přeci obhájit vědecky místo škatulkování, že jsou to všechno "doomeři". A poté tuto škatuly, do které hází široké spektrum vědců a expertů nazývá "mentální poruchou", H. Richie "horší než popírači" (oprava mé předchozí zprávy)

    Some of the friendly fire comes from fellow scientists who have gone down the path of doomism or at least what we might call "soft doomism," that is, emissions reductions alone are not adequate to prevent catastrophic warming.

    Even revered climate scientist James Hansen, whose early predictions of warming proved prophetic, has gotten sucked into the vortex of soft doomism. The scientific consensus is that we can still avert a catastrophic planetary warming of 1.5 degrees Celsius (3 degrees Fahrenheit) if we rapidly reduce carbon emissions this decade.
    (https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/climate-change/action-on-climate-change-faces-new-threat-the-doomers-who-think-its-too-late-to-act)

    Nicméně samozřejmě jsou mnohem horší lidé a dá se jasně říct, že "taháme za stejný provaz", jen jsme myslím v dostatečně specifickém vláknu, kde je prostor na pro tuto diskuzi.

    Další materiál k tématu:

    I read Michael Mann’s The New Climate War so you don’t have to. – Another End of the World is Possible
    https://anotherendoftheworld.org/2021/03/23/i-read-michael-manns-the-new-climate-war-so-you-dont-have-to/

    GBU Episode 2: Good Bad & Ugly - Science Communicators - Michael Mann / Bill Nye Corporate Shills.
    https://youtu.be/YxMCxgv5wGE
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    TADEAS: mann re gates

    You can’t reboot the planet if you crash it
    https://thebulletin.org/2025/10/you-cant-reboot-the-planet-if-you-crash-it/

    I became concerned about Gates’ framing of the climate crisis nearly a decade ago when a journalist reached out to me, asking me to comment on his supposed “discovery” of a formula for predicting carbon emissions. (The formula is really an “identity” that involves expressing carbon emissions as a product of terms related to population, economic growth, energy efficiency, and fossil fuel dependence). I noted, with some amusement, that the mathematical relationship Gates had “discovered” was so widely known it had a name, the “Kaya identity,” after the energy economist Yōichi Kaya who presented the relationship in a textbook nearly three decades ago. It’s familiar not just to climate scientists in the field but to college students taking an introductory course on climate change.

    If this seems like a gratuitous critique, it is not. It speaks to a concerning degree of arrogance. Did Gates really think that something as conceptually basic as decomposing carbon emissions into a product of constituent terms had never been attempted before? That he’s so brilliant that anything he thinks up must be a novel discovery?

    I reserved my criticism of Gates, at the time, not for his rediscovery of the Kaya identity (hey—if can help his readers understand it, that’s great) but for declaring that it somehow implies that “we need an energy miracle” to get to zero carbon emissions. It doesn’t. I explained that Gates “does an injustice to the very dramatic inroads that renewable energy and energy efficiency are making,” noting peer-reviewed studies by leading experts that provide “very credible outlines for how we could reach a 100 percent noncarbon energy generation by 2050.”

    The so-called “miracle” he speaks of exists—it’s called the sun, and wind, and geothermal, and energy storage technology. Real world solutions exist now and are easily scalable with the right investments and priorities. The obstacles aren’t technological. They’re political.

    Gates’ dismissiveness in this case wasn’t a one-off. It was part of a consistent pattern of downplaying clean energy while promoting dubious and potentially dangerous technofixes in which he is often personally invested. When I had the chance to question him about this directly (The Guardian asked me to contribute to a list of questions they were planning on asking him in an interview a few years ago), his response was evasive and misleading. He insisted that there is a “premium” paid for clean energy buildout when in fact it has a lower levelized cost than fossil fuels or nuclear and deflected the questions with ad hominem swipes.
    CHOSIE
    CHOSIE --- ---
    The 2025 state of the climate report: a planet on the brink
    We are hurtling toward climate chaos. The planet's vital signs are flashing red. The consequences of human-driven alterations of the
    climate are no longer future threats but are here now. This unfolding emergency stems from failed foresight, political inaction,
    unsustainable economic systems, and misinformation. Almost every corner of the biosphere is reeling from intensifying heat, storms,
    floods, droughts, or fires. The window to prevent the worst outcomes is rapidly closing.
    Key Highlights
    • The year 2024 set a new mean global surface temperature record, signaling an escalation of climate upheaval.

    • Currently, 22 of 34 planetary vital signs are at record levels.

    • Warming may be accelerating, likely driven by reduced aerosol cooling, strong cloud feedbacks, and a darkening planet.

    • The human enterprise is driving ecological overshoot. Population, livestock, meat consumption, and gross domestic
    product are all at record highs, with an additional approximately 1.3 million humans and 0.5 million ruminants added weekly.

    • In 2024, fossil fuel energy consumption hit a record high, with coal, oil, and gas all at peak levels. Combined solar and
    wind consumption also set a new record but was 31 times lower than fossil fuel energy consumption.

    • So far, in 2025, atmospheric carbon dioxide is at a record level, likely worsened by a sudden drop in land carbon uptake
    partly due to El Niño and intense forest fires.

    • Global fire-related tree cover loss reached an all-time high, with fires in tropical primary forest up 370% over 2023,
    fueling rising emissions and biodiversity loss.

    • Ocean heat content reached a record high, contributing to the largest coral bleaching event ever recorded,
    affecting 84% of reef area.

    • So far, in 2025, Greenland and Antarctic ice mass are at record lows. The Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets
    may be passing tipping points, potentially committing the planet to meters of sea-level rise.

    • Deadly and costly disasters surged, with Texas flooding killing at least 135 people, the California wildfires alone
    exceeding US$250 billion in damages, and climate-linked disasters since 2000 globally reaching more than US$18 trillion.

    • Climate change is endangering thousands of wild animal species; more than 3500 species are now at risk and
    there is new evidence of climate-related animal population collapses.

    • The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation is weakening, threatening major climate disruptions.

    • Climate change is already affecting water quality and availability, undermining agricultural productivity, sustainable
    water management, and increasing the risk of water-related conflict.

    • A dangerous hothouse Earth trajectory may now be more likely due to accelerated warming, self-reinforcing
    feedbacks, and tipping points.

    • Climate change mitigation strategies are available, cost effective, and urgently needed. From forest protection
    and renewables to plant-rich diets, we can still limit warming if we act boldly and quickly.

    • Social tipping points can drive rapid change. Even small, sustained nonviolent movements can shift public
    norms and policy, highlighting a vital path forward amid political gridlock and ecological crisis.

    • There is a need for systems change that links individual technical approaches with broader societal
    transformation, governance, policies, and social movements.
    Figure 1.Time series of climate-related human activities. In panel (f), tree cover loss does not account for forest gain
    and includes loss due to any cause. For panel (h), statistics are based on total energy supply (Energy Institute 2025);
    hydroelectricity and nuclear energy are shown in supplemental figure S2. Sources and additional details about each
    variable are provided in supplemental file S1.

    Figure 2.Time series of climate-related responses. For surface temperature anomaly (d), estimates based on a
    segmented linear regression model are shown in gray (prior to 2010) and black (beginning in 2010). For area burned
    (o), the black horizontal lines show changepoint model estimates, which indicate abrupt shifts (supplemental figure S3).
    For other variables with relatively high variability, local regression trendlines are shown in black. The variables were
    measured at various frequencies (e.g., annual, monthly, weekly). The labels on the x-axis correspond to midpoints of years.
    Sources and additional details about each variable are provided in supplemental file S1.


    https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/advance-article/doi/10.1093/biosci/biaf149/8303627
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Carbon offsets fail to cut global heating due to ‘intractable’ systemic problems, study says | Carbon offsetting | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/oct/06/carbon-offsets-fail-cut-global-heating-intractable-systemic-problems-study
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Two civil rights attorneys who... - Alt National Park Service
    https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1724Hya91G/

    The Trump administration has announced sweeping measures to expand coal production on public lands. It intends to open 13.1 million acres of public land for coal leasing, significantly loosen the royalty rates that mining companies pay, and allocate large sums toward existing coal-fired power plants. A central component of the plan is to dismantle or weaken dozens of environmental regulations that restrict pollution from coal operations and power plants.

    The Trump administration’s coal plan does not stop at opening millions of acres of public land or reducing royalties. It is paired with an unprecedented wave of environmental deregulation that collectively weakens protections for air, water, and climate. Rules that once limited carbon emissions from power plants, such as the Clean Power Plan and its successors, have been repealed or replaced with far weaker standards, allowing utilities to emit far more greenhouse gases at a time when global climate goals demand steep reductions.

    Mercury and Air Toxics Standards, designed to curb neurotoxic pollution that damages brain development and causes respiratory illness, have been scaled back, with nearly seventy coal plants granted exemptions from compliance. Similarly, the administration has rolled back limits on particulate matter, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen oxides (pollutants linked directly to asthma, heart disease, and premature deaths) while loosening oversight of methane emissions, a potent greenhouse gas.

    Water protections have also been eroded. The Stream Protection Rule, which restricted coal companies from dumping mining waste into rivers and streams, was repealed, increasing the risk of heavy metals and toxins entering drinking water sources. Wastewater and coal ash standards for power plants have been relaxed, enabling greater discharge of arsenic, selenium, and other contaminants into waterways. By narrowing the scope of the Clean Water Act, fewer wetlands and tributaries now receive federal protection, leaving them vulnerable to pollution.

    Collectively, these changes lower costs for coal operators but shift the burden onto communities, which face higher health risks from toxic air and water, degraded ecosystems, and accelerating climate change.
    SCHWEPZ
    SCHWEPZ --- ---
    Trumpuv projev v OSN hodinu zpět byl výběr z hroznů:

    "The 'carbon footprint' is a hoax made up by people with evil intentions, and they're heading down a path of total destruction."

    "Europe loses more than 175,000 to heat deaths every year because the costs are so expensive you can't turn on an air conditioner. What is that all about? That's not Europe. That's not the Europe that I love and know. All in the name of pretending to stop the global warming hoax."

    A mnoho dalších perel a verbálních diamantů...
    Vydržel jsem 15minut, pak mi začala téct z uší krev ;)
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    M Berg
    https://www.facebook.com/share/p/16JwFhhofh/

    Málo se o tom mluví, nebo se dokonce mnohem častěji říká, že se jinde ve světě nic neděje, ale v Číně emise klesají.

    Růst čisté energie pomohl v první polovině roku snížit čínské emise oxidu uhličitého, a to i přes nárůst poptávky po elektřině, jak vyplývá z nové analýzy pro Carbon Brief. Emise v první polovině roku klesly meziročně o 1 %, čímž se prodloužil klesající trend, který začal v březnu 2024, uvádí analýza.

    Produkce CO2 v čínském energetickém sektoru klesla o 3 %, přičemž růst solární energie sám o sobě odpovídal nárůstu poptávky po elektřině v zemi. Emise klesly také v odvětvích stavebních materiálů, oceli a vytápění, dodává analýza, kterou najdete zde: https://lnkd.in/exQUDkPE

    FB-IMG-1757667528301
    LINKOS
    LINKOS --- ---
    YMLADRIS: Tohle technické očůrávání potřeby snižovat emise je hlavně jedna z metod jak ty emise reálně nesnižovot. Asi jako když Richard Branson sliboval obří peníze na vynalezení bezuhlikoveho paliva/carbon captur apod. S tímhle bohulibým záměrem v zádech vybudovat obří aerolinky a z bezemisní letecké dopravy nakonec nic nebylo.
    YMLADRIS
    YMLADRIS --- ---
    LINKOS: carbon storage. I kdyby nějaký geniální proces na capture se vynašel, je problém i skladování

    Divné.
    LINKOS
    LINKOS --- ---
    YMLADRIS: Tak, že by Carbon capture snížilo teplotu o několik stupňů se už snad nikde nečeká, ne? Budeme radi když to pojme emise ze špatně dekarbonizovatelných procesů
    YMLADRIS
    YMLADRIS --- ---
    bylo ze carbon storage asi nepujde?

    A study led by researchers from NASA found that the world doesn’t have remotely enough safe places to store carbon dioxide to realize some of humanity’s more ambitious carbon capture plans. These plans typically assume that carbon dioxide, once captured, would be pumped under pressure underground into suitable rocks and sealed there. But finding rock formations where the carbon dioxide does not leak back out isn’t all that easy. The researchers also excluded any locations nearby human settlements due to the risk inherent in such storage, and any locations that would make storage too costly. They conclude that the places left could effectively reduce global warming by about 0.7°C if fully used – far less than the 5-6°C assumed to be possible in some scenarios (especially those favored by the fossil fuel industry).

    While it’s good to quantify the problem, I think these numbers are redundant because the technology to remove carbon from the atmosphere (or even capture it effectively at fossil fuel power plants) is currently so inefficient and costly it won’t make any difference for global warming, certainly not in the near future, and quite possibly not ever. Press release here. Paper here.

    (newsletter Sabine Hossenfelder)
    SCHWEPZ
    SCHWEPZ --- ---
    https://esgnews.com/china-to-impose-absolute-emissions-caps-from-2027-for-nationwide-carbon-market/

    Čína plánuje zavedení absolutních emisních limitů pro průmysl a některé podniky. Učinit tak chce v rámci celostátního systému obchodování s povolenkami. Zavedení absolutních limitů je v Číně novinkou, doposud totiž využívala opatření zaměřená na emisní intenzitu

    Čína spustí celostátní systém obchodování s emisemi
    https://oenergetice.cz/zahranicni/cina-spusti-celostatni-system-obchodovani-s-emisemi

    Země tím indikuje přechod k plně funkčnímu celostátnímu trhu s uhlíkem - fungovat by měl do konce tohoto desetiletí a nahradí roztříštěné provinční systémy. Absolutní emisní limity budou aplikovány od roku 2027 na vybraná odvětví, a nahradí tak současný systém založený na referenčních hodnotách uhlíkové intenzity. Do roku 2030 by pak měl být systém ETS založený na absolutních cílech snížení emisí plně zaveden v celé zemi a nahradit mozaiku pilotních systémů spuštěných po roce 2021.

    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    A method to identify positive tipping points to accelerate low-carbon transitions and actions to trigger them | Sustainability Science
    https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11625-025-01704-9

    Meeting the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to “well below 2 °C” requires a radical acceleration of action, as the global economy is decarbonising at least five times too slowly. Tipping points, where low-carbon transitions become self-propelling, could be key to achieving the necessary acceleration. We deem these normatively ‘positive’, because they can limit considerable, inequitable harms from global warming and help achieve sustainability. Some positive tipping points, such as the UK’s elimination of coal power, have already been reached at national and sectoral scales. The challenge now is to credibly identify further potential positive tipping points, and the actions that can bring them forward, whilst avoiding wishful thinking about their existence, or oversimplification of their nature, drivers, and impacts. Hence, we propose a methodology for identifying potential positive tipping points, assessing their proximity, identifying the factors that can influence them, and the actions that can trigger them. Building on relevant research, this ‘identifying positive tipping points’ (IPTiP) methodology aims to establish a common framework that we invite fellow researchers to help refine, and practitioners to apply. To that end, we offer suggestions for further work to improve it and make it more applicable.
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    The Trump administration is... - Alt National Park Service
    https://www.facebook.com/AltUSNationalParkService/posts/1172892791547578

    The Trump administration is moving from denying climate change to rewriting it. Energy Secretary Chris Wright, a longtime oil industry executive, just announced plans to “update” past National Climate Assessments, the gold-standard, peer-reviewed reports that lay out the risks of the climate crisis in detail.

    Scientists are calling this their “worst fears” come true. Why? Because this isn’t about adding new data, it’s about erasing inconvenient truths. The administration has already:

    - Fired hundreds of scientists working on the next report.
    - Pulled past climate reports from public websites.
    - Released a so-called “study” by climate contrarians that downplays the danger of carbon pollution.

    This isn’t the first time we’ve seen political leaders try to rewrite reality. From the Bush administration editing climate reports in the 2000s, to authoritarian regimes rewriting history books, the tactic is always the same. Manipulate the facts so you can justify harmful policies.

    Climate scientist Michael Mann compared it to “exactly what Joseph Stalin did”, because Stalin was infamous for altering historical records, airbrushing people out of photos, and replacing facts with state-approved propaganda.

    And remember this isn’t just any official doing this. It’s an oil man in charge of the Department of Energy, reshaping science to serve the fossil fuel industry.
    Once you change the official record, you can gut regulations, strip protections, and pretend the crisis doesn’t exist. It’s not just science under attack, it’s the truth.
    ROGER_WILCO
    ROGER_WILCO --- ---
    Carbon emissions aren't falling, but who is to blame? | Alan Kohler | ABC NEWS
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iqfEJ1tY1yI
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