Natural feedbacks will warm world an extra 20 per cent this century | New Scientist
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2588740-natural-feedbacks-will-add-20-per-cent-extra-global-warming/

Feedbacks that cause ecosystems to emit more carbon will make the climate crisis more severe than expected, amplifying global warming by 20 to 30 per cent this century.

It isn’t just fossil fuel emissions that raise temperatures. Warming itself creates more warming. For instance, a hotter atmosphere absorbs more water vapour, which traps more heat in the atmosphere, which then holds more water vapour.

Climate models already incorporate most global feedback loops like this one, and they have started to include feedbacks that are disrupting carbon storage in particular ecosystems. But no single model includes all ecosystem feedbacks. Now, a study has shown that these natural feedbacks will heat the planet by an extra 0.2°C to 0.4°C by 2100, on top of at least 1°C to 2°C of global warming already expected between now and then.

Christina Schädel at Woodwell Climate Research Center in Massachusetts and her colleagues estimated the emissions from four major natural feedbacks. The first is mainly in the Arctic, in permafrost that once remained frozen year-round. As this ground thaws, microbes begin to decompose plant and animal remains that have been frozen for millennia, emitting carbon dioxide and methane.

A second feedback involves wetlands, which also release more methane as temperatures rise. This is because warmer water can hold less gas, and because microbes in the water decompose organic matter at a higher rate. The same processes lead to additional methane emissions from ponds and lakes, a third feedback.

The fourth feedback kicks in as the air gets hotter, winters get shorter and soils get drier. All of this increases the frequency and intensity of wildfires, which results in greater CO2 and methane emissions.

“We need to fully account for all sources of emissions that contribute to warming, otherwise we plan for the wrong future,” says Schädel. “These emissions are left out of carbon budgets, and we adapt to the wrong targets.”

Much of this extra warming is already unavoidable, the modelling suggests. In a climate scenario in which human emissions decline after 2050, the natural feedbacks add an average of 0.4°C of warming by 2100.

Rather than instilling hopelessness, this should inspire governments to redouble their efforts to cut emissions, she adds. Currently, fossil fuel emissions are still increasing each year.

“We are asking the Prime Minister and the presidential candidates to commit to declaring a climate emergency”: the appeal from Yann Arthus-Bertrand, Pierre Hurmic, Jean Jouzel, Laurence Tubiana
https://www.lemonde.fr/idees/article/2026/09/21/l-appel-de-yann-arthus-bertrand-jean-jouzel-noel-mamere-laurence-tubiana-nous-demandons-au-premier-ministre-et-aux-candidats-a-la-presidentielle-de-s-engager-a-decreter-l-urgence-climatique_6778697_3232.html

We now know that the climate issue is not simply a matter of environmental policy. It has become an essential condition for our health, our security, our food and energy sovereignty, the habitability of our cities, our future freedoms, and our very survival. That is why it must be at the heart of the next presidential election.

The candidates for the 2027 presidential election will not only be able to explain how France will adapt to the coming climate. They will also have to say, with the necessary courage, how it intends to sufficiently reduce its carbon emissions to prevent our lives from becoming even more unbearable. It is up to us to ensure that 2027 marks the beginning of the expected political response and a new ecological ambition!

Facebook
https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1Fz7JAoznf/

The rate of the Earth Energy Imbalance (EEI) increase and global Ocean Heat Content (OHC) increase (mostly to deep into the uppermost 2000 meter layer) more than doubled starting in ~2017 and is related to the strong El Niño (EN) of 2015-2016. With the 2026-2027 EN looking like it will be stronger by a large margin, the inference is that this could lead to a sharp additional rise in the rate of global OHC increase and of the EEI around 2028. If that is the case then a larger average global 2 m height air temperature increase is already baked in unless we drastically and very rapidly reduce greenhouse gas emissions and existing atmospheric concentrations.

The sharp increase and subsequent acceleration in global OHC starting in ~2017 is primarily driven by accelerating atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and the accumulation of Earth's excess thermal energy deep within the ocean layers. Because the world's oceans absorb more than 90% of the excess heat trapped by greenhouse gases, full-depth OHC acts as the primary indicator of global warming, experiencing less year-to-year fluctuation from temporary weather events than surface temperatures do.

Scientists point to several overlapping factors that explain the distinct surge around 2017:

1. The planet experienced one of the most powerful El Niño events on record between 2015 and 2016. During an El Niño, vast amounts of ocean heat are released into the atmosphere, causing atmospheric surface temperatures to spike. Once that cycle ended, the ocean surface cooled slightly, but the ongoing global energy imbalance meant the oceans immediately resumed absorbing massive amounts of heat. Instead of staying at the surface, this heat was mixed and stored deep into the 0–2000 meter layers.

2. According to findings published by the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), the sharp spike in 2017 was not uniform across the planet. An unusually massive amount of thermal energy was deposited into the Atlantic Ocean and the Southern Ocean, pushing full OHC to record-breaking thresholds—absorbing an extra 1.51 x 10^22 Joules compared to previous baselines.

3. Data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) confirmed that 2017 saw atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations hit 405 parts per million (ppm), which was the highest in modern recorded history. Currently it is 427 to 429 ppm. As these gases trap more energy, Earth’s energy imbalance worsens, forcing the oceans to continually uptake greater quantities of heat at a much faster rate.

4. According to data tracked by NASA’s Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO), the upper 200 meters of the ocean saw a pronounced acceleration in heat content right after 2017. This acceleration means that the ocean is warming more than twice as fast over the last decade compared to previous decades.

Because water has a much higher heat capacity than air (the oceans have a total heat capacity about 1,000 times that of the atmosphere) the oceans act as Earth's primary climate buffer.

In 2025, ocean heat content (OHC) set yet another consecutive record high, storing an immense volume of energy.

The oceans absorb about 90% of the EEI while EEI is accelerating. While the total amount of heat the ocean absorbs is skyrocketing - because the total EEI is accelerating - the 90% share is projected to remain relatively stable in the near future, though subtle shifts are possible.

The absolute velocity of heat absorption is accelerating. Due to rising greenhouse gases and declining global reflectivity (albedo) from melting ice and fewer marine clouds, the Earth's total energy imbalance has dramatically widened. 👉The rate of ocean warming has effectively quadrupled over the past four decades.👈

As the top layer of the ocean warms, it becomes less dense than the cold water beneath it, leading to increased stratification (layering). This makes it harder for the ocean to mix. If the warm surface layer cannot efficiently transport heat down into the deep ocean, the surface layer will heat up even faster. Over a long timeframe, this could decrease the ocean’s efficiency as a heat sink, leaving a slightly higher fraction of heat to remain in the atmosphere and accelerate land warming.

Large -scale ocean currents like the AMOC act as a conveyor belt that pushes heat into the deep ocean. Climate models indicate that as fresh meltwater from glaciers flows into the sea, the AMOC may weaken. A weaker conveyor belt alters regional heat uptake patterns and reduces how effectively the deep ocean stores excess energy.

While the ocean’s heat absorption remains high, its carbon dioxide absorption is a different story. The ocean absorbs about 25–30% of human-emitted CO2. However, warmer water physically holds less dissolved gas. Scientists have observed that the ocean’s carbon sink capacity is showing signs of weakening during extreme heat years. If the ocean absorbs less CO2, atmospheric CO2 will rise faster, widening the EEI and forcing the ocean to absorb even more heat.

More: https://ecco-group.org/ohc.htm

Removing ‘forever chemicals’ from farmlands — at a fraction of the cost | Yale News
https://news.yale.edu/2026/07/22/removing-forever-chemicals-farmlands-fraction-cost

For decades, sewage sludge used as fertilizer spread PFAS, or "forever chemicals," onto American farmland. Cleaning it up under current methods would cost an estimated $8 trillion.

A Yale-led team has developed a far cheaper approach that also removes carbon dioxide from the atmosphere as a side benefit. The lead researcher happens to be the son and brother of farmers.

See how the process works — and how much it costs

Heating and cooling together now account for more than 40 percent of global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions.

doomed minds

Air conditioning push favoured over emissions cuts in six European nations, survey finds | Extreme heat | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/aug/24/air-conditioning-higher-priority-than-lowering-emissions-europeans-poll

more people across six major European nations including the UK favour encouraging the adoption of air conditioning over keeping carbon emissions down, a survey has found.

Natural Disaster Expert: Elites Have NO PLAN for Climate Collapse | Aaron Bastani meets Bill McGuire
https://youtu.be/ee9fYVwhBsU?si=Tiq5P7U_qfbWi5On


The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere in 2026 is roughly the same as when, in the very, very distant past, the Earth was between 6 and 8 degrees warmer. If the Earth were to reach those temperatures again, the majority of mammals would go extinct.

While we’re not at those temperatures now, the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere could cause the climate to accelerate towards planetary conditions that pre-date the dinosaurs.

This is the stark warning of this week’s guest, Bill McGuire. A geologist and volcanologist by training, he has spent time as an expert and government advisor on extreme weather events, before becoming an author. According to him, there is no plan for the extreme climactic upheaval that is to come.

You can buy Bill’s book here:

The Fate of the World by Bill McGuire – HarperCollins Publishers UK
https://novara.media/3SM0nTd%E2%80%8B

0:00​ Intro
03:30​ The Next Volcanic Eruption
10:31​ Disaster Planning, Prepping, and Britain's Food Security
19:02​ El Niño, and the 1.5°C question
29:40​ Deep History of Climate Change
42:08​ The True Lessons of Geology
54:11​ The Speed of Global Heating
1:03:54​ The Worst Case Scenario
1:13:34​ Why Geoengineering Won't Save Us
1:20:41​ Mass Extinction, Human Folly, and Billionaire Bunkers

gaspard koenig


Gaspard Koenig, philosopher: "The ecological transformation of our imagination is underway, and it is irreversible."
https://archive.is/fapp1

Today, the concepts of habitability, rewilding, and coexistence with non-human living beings are gaining ground. As anthropologist Philippe Descola puts it, "We have won." All avant-garde movements, whether scientific, literary, or activist, are moving in this direction. The 20th century is taking its time to die. Its agony is unbearable and convulsive, but it is doomed.

The agroecological transition is key. Agricultural land currently covers half of France's surface area and a third of the Earth's land surface. While we can always add greenery to cities, the majority of the decline in biodiversity, and conversely, the potential for regeneration, stems from our fields and countryside.

We must therefore rethink our relationship with humus. We must lower our gaze from the sky to the earth. Living soil is a reservoir of biodiversity, a sponge for water, a carbon sink, a diverse landscape, and even a healthy microbiota. Visually, it also means moving away from a monochrome and orthonormal aesthetic (yellow wheat, blue sky, straight lines) to appreciate a more anarchic beauty, that of spontaneous order. Finally, philosophically, it is a way to allow different species, including our own, to coexist. This is why our century must be physiocratic: the true source of wealth is the earth. By reinventing agriculture, we will simultaneously rethink society.

It's too simplistic to think that abolishing capitalism would solve all our problems. Extractive industries predate and far surpass our current neoliberal madness. The Romans polluted their environment with lead, medieval peasants cleared land in unsustainable ways, and Soviet regimes were among the least respectful of nature. Our tendency to overexploit our environment is inherent in our humanity, even in our animal nature. As biologist Marc-André Selosse explains, deer grazing on young shoots or macaques gorging themselves on shellfish are simply responding to the dictates of natural evolution: short-term self-interest.
We must therefore decouple the ecological question from that of the economic system. We are seeing the emergence of a kind of ecological socialism in China. We, for our part, can invent a liberalism constrained by planetary limits, as John Stuart Mill [1806-1873] already envisioned in the mid-19th century .

Rather than relying on the goodwill of large corporations through corporate social responsibility, policymakers must establish rules or fiscal mechanisms that force the market to remain static. The circular economy and regenerative agriculture are good examples. It is perfectly possible to conceive of market exchanges without growth, by respecting a golden rule: only do what you know how to undo. Rather than vainly dreaming of transforming human nature, it is better to establish a system of incentives that harness its worst vices for the common good.

I remain committed to defending the ideal of a society that is free, open, and ecological. First and foremost, there is one heartening certainty: life will emerge victorious from all climate and ecological crises. In a few million years—a mere trifle on the scale of natural evolution—ecosystems will have regenerated, and our mistakes will be forgiven.
In the shorter term, we can clearly see the titanic struggle unfolding between two visions: that of artificial intelligence and that of living organisms. It is up to us to prove that the ecological project is not only more sustainable, but also more desirable. However, let's not fight the wrong battle. It is only when public opinion has shifted that political parties will finally take the environment seriously. The various doctrines can then be rebuilt on this foundation.


RENCONTRE AVEC #40 GASPARD KOENIG - Réconcilier nature et liberté
https://youtu.be/rELlFaCPsgU?si=ueNWHODEALPvzoih



Gaspard Kœnig : Comment j’ai arrêté de croire au progrès technique - En Société du 21 juin 2026
https://youtu.be/0C9ebqolvmc?si=7rtOgM0svgBXTfmj

John Scheve - Global average 2 meter height air...
https://www.facebook.com/share/p/19kfohArNF/

Global average 2 meter height air temperature is now + 1.69 degrees C (+ 3.04 degrees F) above the 1850-1900 baseline. We are likely rocketing to well above + 2 degrees C (+ 3.6 degrees F) in early 2027. There is no sugar coating this. Even though this temperature jump will be largely due to the record intensity El Niño and should ease back slightly by late 2027, the higher that margin goes the more mutual amplifications of climate feedbacks will occur, the more new feedbacks will kick in, and the more tipping points will be crossed irreversibly. There is unfortunately a growing possibility that Antarctic sea ice will shrink so dramatically this coming austral summer - reducing Earth’s reflectivity so much that the atmosphere will continue warming after this El Niño - which would trigger other feedbacks that dramatically accelerate global atmospheric warming to a runaway degree.

We are playing with not just fire but with a bomb in that further warming will trigger massive releases of methane and carbon dioxide from the melting of Arctic tundra and frozen sea floor hydrates on shallow sea floors and shelves in the Arctic plus around Antarctica.

The Holocene which began 11,700 years ago and enabled the rise of human civilization is no more. There is no going back to it barring rapid and massive greenhouse gas emissions reductions to near zero PLUS massive reductions of existing greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere PLUS developing and implementing some method of stopping the massive acceleration of uppermost ocean heat uptake. This is a long shot and it depends not only on global cooperation and resolve by all humanity working together but also on technologies yet to be developed. But we must give it all we’ve got or the warming trajectory we are on leads inexorably to extinction.

Since 1999, average serum bicarbonate levels have increased by about 7 percent. Bicarbonate is a blood marker closely associated with carbon dioxide in the body. During the same period, average levels of calcium and phosphorus decreased.

Those biological trends occurred as atmospheric CO2 climbed from about 369 parts per million (ppm) in 2000 to more than 420 ppm today.

Study author Associate Professor Alexander Larcombe said the results indicate that the body may already be adjusting to changes in the composition of the atmosphere.

"What we're seeing is a gradual shift in blood chemistry that mirrors the rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide, which is driving climate change," A/Prof Larcombe said.

Bicarbonate is essential for regulating the body's acid-base balance. As CO2 increases, the body can retain additional bicarbonate to help keep blood pH stable. Although this response helps preserve that balance, maintaining it over long periods could have physiological effects.

"If current trends continue, modeling indicates average bicarbonate levels could approach the upper limit of today's accepted healthy range within 50 years," A/Prof Larcombe said

"Calcium and phosphorus levels could also reach the lower end of their healthy ranges later this century."

Humans evolved when atmospheric CO2 concentrations were approximately 280 to 300 ppm. During the past decade, atmospheric levels have risen by an average of about 2.6 ppm each year, while 2024 alone saw an increase of 3.5 ppm.


Scientists detect a surprising shift in human blood as atmospheric CO2 rises | ScienceDaily
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2026/08/260814235845.htm

TADEAS: tak zase hrozit, že když se něco zazelená, hrozí požáry... já zazelenění tundry a rozšíření tajgy vidím jako carbon sink. Přeci jen to bude půl roku pod sněhem, ne?

Přece se musí objevit i nějaké zpětné vazby správným směrem, ne?

R Hallam
https://www.facebook.com/share/18yR6ZF6gG/


ADAPTION WITHOUT RESISTANCE IS COMPLICITY
and complicity is a crime against humanity.

Yet again we find that the biggest block to a realist strategy in response to the elite's death project on carbon emissions is the liberal media. It claims to be addressing our "concerns" in a progressive manner - and this framing acts as a cover to distract us into an exclusive focus on individual action and techno fixes - while there is total silence on what "the climate crisis" act concretely entails as we go over 2C in a decade's time - meaning economic collapse and mass starvation (remember the British insurance industry report predicts over 2 billion deaths if we pass 2C). This then dampens the ability to build a national social movement that will force the political revolution we need - to replace the corporate controlled political class with sortition based citizens assemblies, with the legal power and thus popular legitimacy to overcome the power of capital.

Our single biggest political task is to separate from the liberal class and build bottom up, people-based movements which refuse to be managed by these complicit criminals - and move to the revolution which is now absolutely justified and necessary.

Why is Britain running out of water? Because the political class is utterly corrupted and bought out by the rich .... obviously.

"Why is the UK running out of water?
The Environment Agency has estimated England’s public water supply could be short by 5bn litres a day by 2055 without urgent action to future-proof resources.

Water demand is going up as the population grows and new industrial demands from datacentres and energy infrastructure require more water. Plus, the water available to supply those needs is going down as the effects of the climate crisis kick in, and we have greater variability and unpredictability of rainfall and greater water demand during hotter, drier summers. There has also been a lack of investment over several decades in fixing leaks and building new reservoirs."

The rate at which Earth is absorbing energy is alarming scientists
https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2026/07/15/the-rate-at-which-earth-is-absorbing-energy-is-alarming-scientists

https://archive.is/Qs8X9

Observations from space show that the brightness with which Earth shines is dimming. Seen from afar, the home planet is looking steadily darker





The Dangers of Climate Dogma – and what we can do about it – Prof Jem Bendell
https://jembendell.com/2025/09/05/the-dangers-of-climate-dogma-and-what-we-can-do-about-it/

“We are already in a manmade climate emergency and it is probably not primarily due to CO2 in the atmosphere. That’s because the pace of change in our climate is what makes this an emergency, and that is largely due to a decline in the Earth’s reflectivity, primarily from a loss of cloud cover, which is due to a fall in cloud seeding, with strong evidence that is mainly from a degrading of forest cover and ocean health. Downplaying this ecological dimension to global heating due to a dogmatic allegiance to carbon-only explanations and targets, has become as bad a response as that from people who dismiss it all as a climate scam.”

Hot summer economics
https://www.triodos.com/en/articles/2026/hot-summer-economics

Europe's heatwave this summer will cut EU GDP by around 1% in 2026, roughly €180 billion, matching the bloc's entire expected growth for the year, according to a new Triodos Bank report. An estimated 20,400 people died from heat-related causes across France, Germany, Spain and Italy in a single week in June, with wildfires having already burned more land by 30 July than in any full previous year on record.

France is projected to take the biggest economic hit, with GDP growth cut by 1.4 percentage points, potentially pushing an already weak forecast into a 0.6% contraction for 2026. The Netherlands faces near-stagnant growth after an 0.8-point loss. Poland, despite being highly exposed on paper, escapes largely unscathed this year simply because it has had fewer extreme-heat days than usual, while Spain and Italy, hit by the most hot days, are cushioned by decades of acclimatisation.

Labour productivity is the single largest driver of the losses, more than agriculture, energy or transport combined, with research showing measurable output drops once temperatures pass roughly 25–30°C, especially in outdoor and non-air-conditioned work.

The report's authors point to 17 July, when the European Commission proposed easing the trajectory of the EU's carbon-pricing emissions cap through the 2030s on competitiveness grounds, the same week wildfire and death tolls were hitting record levels. That, they argue, illustrates the loop they say Europe is now caught in: heat damages growth, policy loosens to protect growth, emissions rise, and the next heatwave costs more.

Bulgaria is becoming a regional laboratory for battery storage - energynomics.ro
https://www.energynomics.ro/en/bulgaria-is-becoming-a-regional-laboratory-for-battery-storage/

Bulgaria already has close to 4.84 GW of operational battery power and 14.72 GWh of storage capacity across its 100 largest confirmed projects, according to project-by-project research by Kapital. By the end of 2026, the fleet could reach roughly 6.95 GW and 20.8 GWh, with storage power equivalent to about 20% of the country’s installed generation capacity. Kapital editor-in-chief Ivaylo Stanchev said Germany may need another five years to reach comparable battery intensity.

The batteries are already changing Bulgaria’s daily electricity market. They absorb cheap solar power around midday and release it during the evening peak, narrowing the price gap between the two periods. June prices were about €10 per MWh lower in Bulgaria than in Romania and Hungary, while Bulgaria and Greece also had lower evening peaks. Stanchev attributed the shape of the curve to batteries, although the report acknowledges that gas prices, carbon costs, heatwaves and geopolitical developments prevent storage from being isolated as the sole cause.

Storage has also become one of Bulgaria’s largest electricity consumers. Conventional summer demand is typically around 4 GW, but battery charging can push total load close to 8 GW, supported by domestic solar generation and imports mainly from Greece. Between midday and late afternoon, Stanchev said the batteries “consume more than all the Bulgarian other loads”; several hours later, the same installations return electricity to the grid, reshaping imports, generation schedules and regional power flows.

The investment model carries its own threat. Bulgarian projects have largely made money by charging when electricity costs as little as €8 per MWh and selling later when prices can exceed €200. As more batteries enter the market, they will raise demand during cheap hours and increase supply during expensive ones, compressing the spreads that made them profitable. “You cannot rely only on arbitrage”, Stanchev said. Banks and investors are consequently examining trading strategies, balancing markets, ancillary services and renewable-output optimisation alongside installed capacity.

Developers are increasingly combining batteries with solar plants. Solar generation provides predictable low-cost charging, while storage allows more electricity to be sold during higher-value periods; the batteries can then stimulate demand for further renewable capacity. Bulgaria’s experience also points beyond national planning: Greek solar, Bulgarian storage and Romanian wind could complement one another through stronger interconnections and coordinated markets during heatwaves, droughts, evening peaks and reduced hydro or nuclear availability.

vstric klimatickym povstanim ,)

Roger Hallam - 1/2. STOP ALL OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES This is...
https://www.facebook.com/share/1CZHKwvBfF/

‘Stop all outdoor activities’: South Korea records its highest ever temperature | South Korea | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/aug/03/south-korea-highest-temperature

STOP ALL OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES

This is short hand for the following:

This is what is happening at 1.5C - weeks when there are 5 or more days greater than 40C. This means that at 2C, during some years, there will have to be "no outdoor activities" for weeks on end. This means crops will die or they won't get planted, weeded, or cropped. This means you reading this will have a non-trivial chance of starving - and dying from starvation. It's happened before and it will happen again.

The reason this is happening is NOT because the elites refuse to slash carbon emissions - it's because the liberal class dampens, represses, and distracts populations with false promises and reformist "pragmatism" - preventing (so far) the essential revolutions which are now absolutely justified by any value system that is opposed to endless mass death.

Dates will soon be set for revolutions and you reading this will decide whether you want to sit around waiting to die - or maybe "just" for your children to die - or whether you will get up and "fight the good fight," which most generations throughout history have had to do to protect themselves from spasms of radical evil.

Jeden z příčetnějších nápadů na geoinženýring... kdyby se udělal prý promyšleně a zodpovědně (ale simulacím bych nevěřil... spíš začít v malým a hrozně pečlivě monitorovat...? stejně to nakonec určitě nějaký nepředvídaný následky mít bude, jako všechno...)
Ocean iron fertilization removes carbon but may harm marine life - Earth.com
https://www.earth.com/news/ocean-iron-could-help-fight-climate-change-but-only-in-the-right-waters/

R Hallam

THE GREAT SILENCE

Conservatives and Liberals of course are right. Over the past century the levels of loss of life from "natural" disasters have drastically reduced. This is just an indisputable fact. But this fact, of course, is historically situated. The indisputableness is that it happened in a certain time period, say from 1950 to 2000. This says nothing necessarily about the period 2025-2075.

Now there is indisputable evidence that mass human death is going to return due to the elite's refusal to slash carbon emissions. The human ego, as we all know, does not like change - this painful adaption shows up by silence - what might be called sulking. Hence the great silence of the present moment.

Needless to say, nothing lasts for ever - including silence. The coming El Nino will very likely produce the first mass human death events which will signal the rise back up the curve

Interesting interview with Earth scientist Bill McGuire.

One of the most concerning points he discusses is a new (as yet unreviewed) paper suggesting that current satellite observations aren't matching our understanding of Earth's energy imbalance. In other words, the planet appears to be warming faster than existing models can fully explain. As this paper has not yet been peer reviewed, these findings should be treated as provisional until they have undergone independent scientific scrutiny. If they do hold up, they suggest we could exceed 2°C of warming by around 2040, approach 3°C by around 2050, and continue rising thereafter, pushing Earth's climate towards temperatures not experienced for millions of years.

The video also explores the economic consequences of climate breakdown.

The Institute and Faculty of Actuaries, the professionals who assess financial risk for banks, insurers and pension funds argue that many economic models are fundamentally underestimating climate risk. Their concern is that most financial institutions treat climate impacts as isolated events, rather than recognising that droughts, crop failures, floods, migration, conflict and supply chain disruption can cascade into one another, creating far greater economic damage than the sum of the individual parts.

Their warning is stark. Without immediate action to change course, severe climate impacts are not only plausible but could threaten future global prosperity.

To illustrate the scale of the disagreement, many mainstream economic models still rely on assumptions originating from a model published in 2000, which estimated climate change would reduce global GDP by only around 3% by 2100. By contrast, actuarial risk assessments, produced by people whose job is to price and underwrite multi billion dollar financial risks, warn of around a 15% reduction in global GDP by 2050, rising to as much as 50% by 2100. Some actuarial scenarios even suggest the possibility of widespread societal breakdown beginning around the 2040s, with catastrophic human consequences later this century.

It does make you wonder whether the old contrarian slogan, "We are the carbon they want to get rid of," has ended up applying in the opposite direction.

The Insurance Industry Predicts Mass Death: How Do We Live A Good Life?
https://youtu.be/9Q93ZE54yaE?is=q0M2JBIgKLEgw6ZZ&t=4m0