asi je to dezinfo
Disinformation narratives on dam demolitions in Valencia - Maldita.es
https://maldita.es/clima/20241104/dams-reservoirs-removed-floods-valencia/

TUHO: A quick analysis following the floods in Spain found that the climate emergency made the extreme rainfall about 12% more intense and twice as likely. Despite this, in Paiporta, where at least 62 people have died, the mayor said floods were not common and “people are not afraid”. But the changing climate is making once-rare events more common.

Record-breaking events such as these complicate preparedness – how do you communicate the extreme danger of something someone has never experienced before?

We saw this play out recently after Hurricane Helene made landfall. More than 200 people died in floods in the inland southern Appalachians region of the US. Despite warnings of “catastrophic and life-threatening” flooding ahead of the disaster, people were still caught out when disaster struck, and many could not appreciate how extreme the downpours were going to be.

However, in Spain, people were only warned as it was happening. Warnings were not sent until many people were already trapped in flooded houses or in underground car parks, trying to move their cars to higher ground.

YMLADRIS: dlouhodoba obdobi klidu a miru te proste ukolebaji....
Local authorities have been criticised for failing to issue timely warnings about the potential dangers of the storm.

Valencia’s government has admitted it only sent out text messages warning residents of the catastrophe eight hours after floods were first reported and 10 hours after AEMET issued a warning about “extreme danger” in the region.

This brief message sent just after 8pm on Tuesday came too late for many who were already trapped in their homes, in shops or in their cars on the streets as the deadly flooding hit.

Fears of ‘mass grave’ in Valencia as storms batter Majorca & 5,000 more troops deployed
https://youtu.be/tL9Q_cZxSMY?t=258&si=jGF01ohrKSae3uhG


Wars, famines, droughts, floods
Hurricanes, heat waves, murders, thugs
Chaos, refugees, stress, disease
Extinction, disaster, I-P-C-C

TADEAS

bojovat s počasím

Spain floods disaster: 5,000 more troops drafted in to deal with aftermath | Spain | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/nov/02/spain-floods-disaster-5000-more-troops-drafted-in-to-deal-with-aftermath

starý média o Španělsku:
jinak se mluví o 62+ mrtvých, to ale bbc nezmiňují.
Spain floods: Dozens dead after torrential rain in Valencia region
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c93qlpp5gxvo

Spanelsko - flash floods, kroupy, tornado, auta plavou v rece, strzeny mosty...

Kdyby nekoho zajimaly detaily, tak Volcaholic @ xcom jich dneska nekolik shromazdil

x.com
https://x.com/WxNB_/status/1851330893769592874?t=i8fsxVI_Iku6ipnoKZyPgQ&s=19

počasí

“At certain places in the Ardèche region, up to 700 milimetres of water has fallen in 48 hours. That’s more than a year’s rainfall in Paris, so it’s absolutely gigantic,” Agnes Pannier-Runacher, the environment minister, told BFM TV.

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20241018-major-floods-in-southeast-france-cause-significant-damage-power-cuts

flood'n'run

Flash floods and landslides hit parts of Bosnia, killing at least 16 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/weather/2024/oct/05/flash-floods-and-landslides-hit-parts-of-bosnia-killing-people

Comparing 2000-2020 period to 1980-2000 period:

Number of #droughts up 1.29x
Number of #storms up 1.4x
Number of #floods up 2.34x
Number of #heatwaves up 3.32x

From United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction

#climate #weather #pocasi

20 let staré studie (níže), tedy dnes nepříliš relevatní, vzhledem k obrovskému posunu v klimatologii, ale jen pro kontext.
Těch faktorů je samozřejmě více, ale pakliže má člověk povědomí o tom jak planetární systémy fungují a jsou ovlivněny, tak je zkrátka realitou, že jakýkoliv extrém je dnes amplifikován globálním ohříváním - ať už mluvíme o síle nebo četnosti.

Ač se energetická bilance opravdu rozjela až v začátcích 21. století, tan surplus byl obrovský již na přelomu století


Summer Floods in Central Europe – Climate Change Track? (2005)

In Central Europe, river flooding has been recently recognized as a major hazard, in
particular after the 1997 Odra /Oder flood, the 2001 Vistula flood, and the most destructive
2002 deluge on the Labe/Elbe.

Having observed that flood risk and vulnerability are likely to have grown in many areas,
one is curious to understand the reasons for growth. These can be sought in socio-economic
domain (humans encroaching into floodplain areas), terrestrial systems
(land-cover changes – urbanization, deforestation, reduction of wetlands, river regulation),
and climate system.
The atmospheric capacity to absorb moisture, its potential water content, and thus
potential for intense precipitation, are likely to increase in a warmer climate.

General acceleration of hydrological cycle in the warming world, observed already to
some extent and projected in the future to a larger extent, leads to the con-
clusion that intense summer precipitation events could be on the rise.

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11069-004-4547-6


The central European floods of August 2002: Part 2 - Synoptic causes and considerations with respect to climatic change (2003)

The Elbe flood of August 2002 was caused by extreme rainfall in a large area. The associated
circulation pattern was rather typical of previous flood events both in recent years and in
the more distant past.

The model simulations consid ered suggest that their frequency might increase in the future.

According to Fricke and Kaminski (2001) an increase of days with extreme precipitation can
already be observed in the long station time-series of the Hohenpeissenberg Observatory
in southern Germany.

This seems to agree with the trends produced in simulations of anthropogenic climate change.

https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/32832/

PULNOC: Deadly flooding in Central Europe made twice as likely by climate change
Deadly flooding in Central Europe made twice as likely by climate change | AP News
https://apnews.com/article/central-europe-european-union-floods-climate-change-damage-rain-5e90744008e4bc1404bbfd181f09b32f
Climate change supercharged Europe’s floods, scientists warn
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn5zx2zx5xvo
Climate change and high exposure increased costs and disruption to lives and livelihoods from flooding associated with exceptionally heavy rainfall in Central Europe – World Weather Attribution
https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-change-and-high-exposure-increased-costs-and-disruption-to-lives-and-livelihoods-from-flooding-associated-with-exceptionally-heavy-rainfall-in-central-europe/

Jinak, pokud vidíme několikrát za dekádu 50, 100, 500, 1000 leté události, tak na tom logicky něco nehraje, ale to mi přijde, že je v této diskuzi jedno.

Moje otázka zní, proč tu jsi pokud ti vadí aktualizace z klimatologie, ekologie,..?
A proč se tu něco snažíš minimalizovat na základě nějakých subjektivních osobních pocitů a zkušenosti?

To je snad to nejméně důvěryhodné čeho se držet.
V této "pyramidě založené na důkazech" (+- jak věda funguje) tyto pocity a zkušenosti leží ještě 50 metrů pod základama :)

počasí

Kathmandu Valley gets half its average rainfall in less than two days

112 dead, 65 missing in Nepal floods | Nepali Times
https://nepalitimes.com/news/60-dead-64-missing-in-nepal-floods

see less of this

Floods in Poland and wildfires in Portugal show reality of climate breakdown, says EU | Climate crisis | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/sep/18/floods-in-poland-and-wildfires-in-portugal-show-reality-of-climate-breakdown-says-eu

@thenoorhag · 4 Sep
Heavy rain and floods took by surprise hundreds of thousands of Sudanese and it destroyed more than 200 000 houses.

In the Sahara desert!

Plans for Floods control and town replanning in the desert is needed to prevent future catastrophes and to cope with real Climate change
x.com
https://x.com/thenoorhag/status/1831396419212865994

#dopady

povodne v pakistanu, hlad. Je mi 14, měla jsem radost že se budu vdávat. Myslela jsem že dostanu rtěnku a šaty. Ale manžel nemá práci a můj život je ještě horší než dřív (s půlročním kojencem). Rodina žije za dolar na den, za nevěstu dostane třeba 720 dolarů, jenže ženich to pořídil na dluh a nemá z čeho splácet

"We would expect to see an 18 percent increase in the prevalence of child marriage, equivalent to erasing five years of progress," it said in a report after the 2022 floods.

Dildar Ali Sheikh, 31, had planned to marry off his eldest daughter Mehtab while living in an aid camp after being displaced by the floods.

"When I was there, I thought to myself 'we should get our daughter married so at least she can eat and have basic facilities'," the daily wage labourer told AFP.

Mehtab was just 10 years old.

"The night I decided to get her married, I couldn't sleep," said her mother, Sumbal Ali Sheikh, who was 18 when she married.

An intervention from the NGO Sujag Sansar led to the wedding being postponed, and Mehtab was enrolled in a sewing workshop, allowing her to earn a small income while continuing her education.

But when the monsoon rains fall, she is overcome by dread that her promised wedding will also arrive.

How Extreme Weather Is Leading To Rise In Child Marriages In Pakistan
https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/how-extreme-weather-is-leading-to-rise-in-child-marriages-in-pakistan-6347952

Deště v Sahelu a dokonce na jižní části Sahary trvají

Floods in Niger: At Least 94 Dead, Over 137,000 Affected - ProtoThema English
https://en.protothema.gr/2024/08/10/floods-in-niger-at-least-94-dead-over-137000-affected/

Je to krásně vidět na mapě vlhkosti, celý ten pruh Sahelu je momentálně deštivý jak pás deštných lesů pod ním. Sahel na to samozřejmě není připravený a tak se ty povodně budou jen zhoršovat.
Prakticky se naplňuje to o čem psali pár let zpátky že klimatická změna a vyšší teplota Atlantiku podle modelů způsobí