• TGS+136+Corey+Bradshaw+Transcript.pdf

For an initial CO2 doubling forcing of 4 W m-2 this yields a total forcing of (4+2)1.25 = 7.5 W m-2. Together with an ECS of 4.8°C, this results in an ESS of (7.5/4)4.8°C = 9°C.

As demonstrated in the feedback analysis in Section 2.3, the scale factor of 7.5/4 between ESS and ECS is in principle only
valid for the particular value of ECS under consideration, in this case the recent ‘Hansen value’ of 4.8°C.

In total, the above analysis leads to a 4°C future warming in the pipeline on top of the 2°C ‘Paris’ setpoint, resulting in an
Equilibrium global warming of about 6°C. This value sits more or less in between today’s actual warming of 1.2°C and the
expected 10°C warming for today’s GHGs concentrations in the atmosphere reported in the recent Hansen study

The world is in metacrisis. That means that many crises are occurring simultaneously and affecting one another.

Attention must be placed first on the whole, not on the parts. That includes the natural world. It is the source of the resources including food that support human survival and prosperity. Disregarding the effects of our actions on nature is among the principal reasons for the metacrisis.

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Even in the narrow case that only considers emissions, there is no evidence that the renewable energy transition has changed their upward trajectory despite thirty-six international climate conferences and trillions of dollars of investment over the last forty years.

In fact, there is no evidence that an energy transition exists. Energy consumption and population continue to increase every year.

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Growth is the problem. Carbon emissions are a consequence of the growth in energy consumption that has enabled the growth in human population and economic activity.

As long as energy use continues to increase, efforts to limit carbon emissions will be negligible, and temperature will rise.

Growth is also the root cause of the ongoing crisis of the natural world. Populations of mammals, birds, amphibians, reptiles, and fish have declined by an average of 69% since 1970.

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The global financial system is highly interconnected, meaning a crisis in one region can quickly spread to others. Financial institutions and markets are increasingly reliant on digital infrastructure, making them vulnerable to cyber-attacks.

Those who believe that a renewable energy transition is possible seem to ignore that carbon emissions, GDP, population and society’s ecological footprint all correlate with energy consumption. That means that there is a cost for lower emissions.

Unless the future is somehow completely different from the past and present, the only solution to climate change and overshooting our planetary boundaries is a radical reduction in energy consumption. Lower economic growth and a lower population will be unavoidable components of a renewable energy future. That’s not part of the transition narrative, and is a non-starter for most people and political leaders.

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We need a holistic approach, one that moves fluidly from the whole to the parts and back again. Otherwise, we’re simply shifting problems around, likely making everything worse in the process.