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    TUHOKlimaticka zmena / Destroying the Future Is the Most Cost-Effective


    "Given the sheer enormity of climate change, it’s okay to be depressed, to grieve. But please, don’t stay there too long. Join me in pure, unadulterated, righteous anger."


    "I don’t want your hope. I don’t want you to be hopeful. I want you to panic. I want you to feel the fear I feel every day. And then I want you to act. Once you start to act, the hope is everywhere."

    "Our best scientists tell us insistently that a calamity is unfolding, that the life-support systems of the Earth are being damaged in ways that threaten our survival. Yet in the face of these facts we carry on as usual."

    “We’ve got to stop burning fossil fuels. So many aspects of life depend on fossil fuels, except for music and love and education and happiness. These things, which hardly use fossil fuels, are what we must focus on.”

    A nejde o to, že na to nemáme dostatečné technologie, ty by na řešení použít šly, ale chybí nám vůle a představivost je využít. Zůstáváme při zemi, přemýšlíme až moc rezervovaně. Technologický pokrok to sám o sobě nevyřeší. Problém jsme my, ne technologické nástroje.

    Rostouci hladiny oceanu, zmena atmosferickeho proudeni, zmeny v distribuci srazek a sucha. Zmeny karbonoveho, fosforoveho a dusikoveho cyklu, okyselovani oceanu. Jake jsou bezpecnostni rizika a jake potencialni klady dramatickych zmen fungovani zemskeho systemu?
    Ale take jak funguji masove dezinformacni kampane ropneho prumyslu a boj o verejne mineni na prahu noveho klimatickeho rezimu post-holocenu.
    rozbalit záhlaví
    MARSHUS
    MARSHUS --- ---
    SHEFIK: to zní jak úvodní kapitola z Ministry for the future

    The Ministry for the Future by Kim Stanley Robinson | Goodreads
    https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/50998056-the-ministry-for-the-future
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adx0298

    An Unprecedented Drying of the Continents: A Decline in Freshwater Availability

    This study analyzes changes in terrestrial water storage—which includes all forms of water stored on land, such as ice, snow, surface water, vegetation water, soil moisture, and groundwater.

    It reveals that since 2002, the continents have experienced an unprecedented loss of terrestrial water storage—a critical indicator of freshwater availability.

    Each year, areas undergoing drying have expanded by an amount equivalent to twice the size of California, creating “mega-dry” regions across the Northern Hemisphere. While most of the world’s dry areas are getting drier and wet areas wetter, the rate of drying is now outpacing the rate of wetting. This shift is driven by water losses in high latitudes, severe droughts in Central America and Europe, and widespread groundwater depletion—which alone accounts for 68% of the non-glacial continental water loss.

    “The drying of the continents has profound global consequences. Since 2002, 75% of the world’s population has lived in 101 countries that have lost freshwater. Furthermore, continents now contribute more to sea level rise than ice sheets do, with drying regions contributing more than glaciers and ice sheets combined. Urgent action is needed to prepare for the major impacts highlighted by these findings.”

    The Rise of Mega-Dry Regions on Land

    Previous studies identified key features of changing terrestrial water storage across continents, consistent with climate model projections, glacier and ice sheet melt, global groundwater depletion, and shifts in flood and drought extremes. This study demonstrates how recent regional and continental trends in water storage are accelerating continental drying.

    Implications for Freshwater Availability

    Today, excessive groundwater pumping is the main driver behind the decline in terrestrial water storage in drying regions. It significantly worsens the effects of rising temperatures, increased aridity, and extreme drought. Continued overexploitation of groundwater—such as what's happening in California at an accelerating pace—threatens both regional and global water and food security in ways that remain largely underrecognized worldwide.

    Groundwater depletion is directly influenced by water management decisions—and can also be stopped by them.

    In many areas, once groundwater is depleted, it will not naturally replenish on a human timescale. The disappearance of groundwater from the Earth’s aquifers represents a new and serious threat to humanity, creating cascading risks that are rarely considered in environmental policy, water management, or governance. This is an intergenerational resource that is being poorly managed—or not managed at all—by today’s societies, at a tremendous and deeply underestimated cost to future generations.

    Protecting the world’s groundwater reserves is essential in a warming world and on continents we now know are drying out.

    A Call to Action

    Just as efforts to slow climate change are faltering, so too are efforts to curb the drying of the continents.

    Key policy decisions and new management strategies—particularly those promoting groundwater sustainability at both national and regional levels—alongside international initiatives for global groundwater sustainability, can help safeguard this vital resource for generations to come.

    Major, coordinated efforts—national, international, global, and transdisciplinary—are urgently needed to raise awareness and spur action on the drying of the continents and the decline in freshwater availability.
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    ‘Self-termination is most likely’: the history and future of societal collapse | Environment | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/aug/02/self-termination-history-and-future-of-societal-collapse
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    Earth's continents are drying out at unprecedented rate, satellite data reveal | Space
    https://www.space.com/science/climate-change/earths-continents-are-drying-out-at-unprecedented-rate-satellite-data-reveal

    As a result, 75% of the world's population now lives in areas suffering from fresh water loss, with repercussions on agriculture, sanitation, and climate change resilience. The trend is also likely to cause further desertification of areas already suffering from insufficient rainfall.
    ...
    The researchers said that the loss of continental water now contributes more to the global sea level rise than the melting of ice sheets.
    ...
    The study, led by researchers from Arizona State University, revealed that even areas that previously showed tendencies to increased wetness are now getting drier or at least not getting wetter at the previously detected pace.
    ...
    Overpumping groundwater is the largest contributor to the rates of terrestrial water storage decline in drying regions, significantly amplifying the impacts of increasing temperatures," the researchers wrote in the paper. "The continued overuse of groundwater, which in some regions like California, is occurring at an increasing, rather than at sustainable or decreasing rates, undermines regional and global water and food security."
    ...
    They added that the depleted groundwater won't get replenished "on human timescales," causing a "critical, emerging threat to humanity," which risks triggering a cascade of further calamities.

    "[Groundwater] is an intergenerational resource that is being poorly managed, if managed at all by recent generations, at tremendous and exceptionally undervalued cost to future generations," the researchers wrote. "Protecting the world's groundwater supply is paramount in a warming world and on continents that we now know are drying."
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    National Climate Assessment website goes dark : NPR
    https://www.npr.org/2025/07/01/nx-s1-5453501/national-climate-assessment-nca5-archive-report

    The website that hosts the most recent edition of the National Climate Assessment has gone dark. The sprawling report is the most influential source of information about how climate change affects the United States.

    The National Climate Assessment is widely used by teachers, city planners, farmers, judges and regular citizens looking for answers to common questions such as how quickly sea levels are rising near American cities and how to deal with wildfire smoke exposure. The most recent edition had a searchable atlas that allowed anyone to learn about the current and future effects of global warming in their specific town or state.

    On Monday, the government website that hosts all of that information stopped working.

    The Trump administration had already halted work on the next edition of the report, and fired all the staff who worked on it.
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    Teflon uz se tu resil. Koncovy vyrobek neni ten hlavni problem, to je zjednoduseni, ke kteremu sklouzavaji media. Viz

    [SHEFIK @ Klimaticka zmena / Destroying the Future Is the Most Cost-Effective]
    [SHEFIK @ Klimaticka zmena / Destroying the Future Is the Most Cost-Effective]
    XCHAOS
    XCHAOS --- ---
    A French minister: we need to prepare ourselves for a future when temperatures are 4°C higher.

    A climate scientist: with a rise of 4°C above pre-industrial age, up to 90% of the world's population may die.
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    Faced with major security challenges, Europe is preparing to boost its defence capacity. To defend itself against Russia without the United States, Europe needs to rapidly increase spending from the current level of about 2 percent of GDP to an estimated 3.5 percent of GDP – an increase of about €250 billion annually (Burilkov and Wolff, 2025). In March, the European Commission proposed the ReArm Europe Plan/Readiness 2030 1 , which seeks to mobilise €800 billion in defence spending.

    Some see increased defence spending as being in conflict with the climate agenda 2 , arguing that boosting defence spending by 1.5 percent of GDP while increasing climate spending by 2 percent of GDP, as required to meet EU climate objectives (Pisani-Ferry and Tagliapietra, 2024), would be unsustainable.

    While there will be a trade-off when it comes to public spending – especially in the budgets of countries with more limited fiscal space than Germany, but also in the EU budget itself – the defence and climate agendas are not entirely in conflict. Here, we outline seven major converging interests. These areas should form the basis for a common defence and climate agenda which would allow the EU to develop more coherent policy for the future.

    Defence and climate: seven points for a common agenda
    https://www.bruegel.org/analysis/defence-and-climate-seven-points-common-agenda
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Jeff Bezos’ Earth Fund Cuts Off a Key Nonprofit Monitoring Corporate Climate Efforts – Mother Jones
    https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2025/02/jeff-bezo-earth-fund-ends-support-nonprofit-science-based-targets-initiative-sbti-corporate-climate-efforts-paris/

    The Bezos Earth Fund has stopped its support for the Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi), an international body that assesses if companies are decarbonizing in line with the Paris agreement. Earth Fund had been one of two core funders of the SBTi, with the Ikea Foundation: The two accounted for 61 percent of its total funding last year. Earth Fund’s decision was first reported by the Financial Times.

    Spokespeople for Earth Fund and SBTi said the $18 million grant had been a three-year commitment that expired as previously agreed, and Earth Fund had not made a final decision on future support. But researchers familiar with the SBTi, as well as advisers at the organization, raised concerns that the vanishing support was part of a broader trend of wealthy individuals moving away from funding causes that the US president—who has previously called climate change a hoax—did not agree with
    CHOSIE
    CHOSIE --- ---

    https://www.ipsos.com/en/people-and-climate-change
    “Global perceptions amid earth’s temperature breaching the 1.5 degrees tipping point.

    “Although 64% of people recognize that failing to act on climate change would let down future generations, there has been a notable decline in individuals believing their actions are crucial since 2021.”







    CHOSIE
    CHOSIE --- ---
    Related k místnímu vláknu, článek od N. Hagense - krátce a stručně sepsáno.
    The 7 Fundamental Drivers of Overshoot
    Humanity is in overshoot1. The last 50 years have marked a unique period in history during which our species has been able to access, extract, and consume natural resources at a rate faster than the Earth is able to regenerate them. As humanity continues to grow its population beyond the carrying capacity of its environment, the associated excess consumption is degrading the health of Earth’s ecosystems. By over-consuming our environment—and ecosystem stability—in the short-term, we are putting our planet’s long-term stability and capacity to provide for future generations in jeopardy.
    https://www.resilience.org/stories/2025-03-17/the-7-fundamental-drivers-of-overshoot/
    XCHAOS
    XCHAOS --- ---
    PALEONTOLOG: právě že [XCHAOS @ Klimaticka zmena / Destroying the Future Is the Most Cost-Effective] je zřejmě původní zdroj, akorát jsem tu frázi "sounds legit" použil neironicky, což jsem si uvědomil, že je vlastně blbost :-) no ale i Novinky můžou 2x za den ukázat správnej čas, že jo.

    Jinak tady [XCHAOS @ Klimaticka zmena / Destroying the Future Is the Most Cost-Effective] mi k tomu dohledal, že je to vlastně dost staronový vynález, nový je spíš ten nápad, kdy to rovnou kontinuálně melou na "písek" (ve skutečnosti křídu), místo aby z toho budovali umělý korálový útesy (materiál je v obou případech stejnej).

    Jako některý formy geoinženýringu mi zas tak strašný nepřijdo a když se k tomu přičte, že materiál je bílej... třeba jen silnice z bílýho betonu místo černýho asfaltu by mohly mít velký vliv na mikroklima (mikroklima sice planetu nespasí, ale může značně ovlivnit subjektivní komfort lidí, kteří v nějakém prostředí fakt žijou...)
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    A new study warns hurricanes will likely get stronger and more common in the Atlantic and East Pacific Oceans, putting coastal towns from Florida to Mexico at greater risk, the study's researchers said via Phys.org.

    What's happening?
    University of Reading scientists said they have managed to take a potentially game-changing step in determining ways to predict hurricanes up to 10 years ahead of time.

    Their findings are concerning if their modeling is accurate, too. The researchers, using software from the U.K. Met Office, said their projections indicate that the rates of tropical cyclones — hurricanes and tropical storms that are below hurricane levels of strength — are likely to double from their 1970s levels. They also projected significant increases of such storms in the East Pacific through 2030, though at a less dramatic spike, increasing by roughly a third.

    Scientists issue jaw-dropping warning about future of powerful hurricanes: 'Time to prepare'
    https://www.thecooldown.com/outdoors/increasing-hurricane-predictions-atlantic-east-pacific/
    XCHAOS
    XCHAOS --- ---
    Countries must bolster climate efforts or risk war, Cop30 chief executive warns | Cop30 | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/mar/18/countries-must-bolster-climate-efforts-or-risk-war-cop30-chief-executive-warns
    Countries must not make a choice between defence and climate, Toni told the Guardian in an interview in London, but must understand that reducing efforts to combat the climate crisis would have an impact on their future security.

    “Wars come and go. Unfortunately, climate change is there for a long time. We need to take climate change very seriously, otherwise we will have even more wars in the future. So that trade-off between short-term defence needs now, versus the long-term need to prevent this bigger fight on climate change, is absolutely needed.
    SCHWEPZ
    SCHWEPZ --- ---
    Je tohle skutečně takový game changer, nebo jen bouře ve sklenici vody?

    "China has discovered a massive thorium deposit, estimated at one million tonnes, in Inner Mongolia. This groundbreaking find could provide a limitless energy source, potentially powering the country for 60,000 years. Unlike uranium, thorium is more abundant, safer, and produces less long-lived radioactive waste. China is already developing thorium-based molten salt reactors, which could revolutionize clean energy and reduce reliance on fossil fuels. If successfully harnessed, this discovery could reshape the global energy landscape and contribute to a more sustainable future.


    China’s thorium survey finds ‘endless energy source right under our feet’ | South China Morning Post
    https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3300360/chinas-thorium-survey-finds-endless-energy-source-right-under-our-feet

    China’s hidden energy treasure? Survey finds massive thorium deposits that could power the country for 60,000 years
    https://www.moneycontrol.com/europe/?url=https://www.moneycontrol.com/world/china-s-hidden-energy-treasure-survey-finds-massive-thorium-deposits-that-could-power-the-country-for-60-000-years-article-12955219.html
    CHOSIE
    CHOSIE --- ---
    The SSP4 Conspiracy: How an Elite-Driven World of Inequality Became the Chosen Pathway
    While much of the academic and policy discussion has revolved around SSP1 (sustainability) and SSP2 (middle of the road), SSP4 has received disproportionately little attention in both research literature and official climate discussions. Despite its relative obscurity, SSP4 outlines one of the most plausible pathways to high climate mitigation — on par with SSP1 — while simultaneously envisioning an era of increasing inequality.

    The accelerating embrace of SSP4 — intentional or otherwise — reflects a world where elites secure their future in fortress enclaves while the majority grapple with worsening inequality, climate disruption, and eroding democratic norms. Behind the veneer of occasional sustainability pledges lies a growing apparatus of private security, AI-driven surveillance, and monopolized access to critical resources, all guarded by oligarchic governance structures. In this scenario, climate action is no longer a collective human endeavor; it is an exclusive contract between the ultra-wealthy and the technologies they command.
    https://sustainablesage.medium.com/the-ssp4-conspiracy-how-an-elite-driven-world-of-inequality-became-the-chosen-pathway-94e8ea12e0b1
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    Diana Urge-VorsatzDiana Urge-Vorsatz
    • 2nd • 2nd Vice Chair of the IPCC, Professor at Department of Environmental Sciences and Policy, Central European University
    2h • 2 hours ago

    After immensely hard work and many sleepless hours, the IPCC can be very proud to have the planned content of all the products of the Seventh Assessment hashtag#AR7 cycle agreed on.

    At the same time, I need to register my concerns about the future of both the IPCC as well as our global climate based on certain trends that the changes in the outlines signal.

    It is concerning that key words that formed the backbone of previous reports, assessments that were consistent and among the most used components of ARs cycle after cycle after cycle were not accepted to be included in the outlines.

    Key scientific concepts, such as hashtag#policies, hashtag#exPostEvaluation, hashtag#scenarios, hashtag#pathways, hashtag#infrastructure, national and subnational [policies], hashtag#lockin, hashtag#maladaptation, hashtag#targets, hashtag#goals, hashtag#NDCs, hashtag#fossilfuels, hashtag#subsidies, cost of inaction, hashtag#UNFCCC, hashtag#ParisAgreement, trade, conflict, market-based [instruments], non-state actors, hashtag#electrification, policy packages, acceleration, hashtag#overshoot, environmental impacts, hashtag#attribution, future emission trends, among others – have been questioned and either cut or replaced in many places, many of these key words do not appear any more in the outline of one WG.

    Some words, like the hashtag#ParisAgreement, acceleration, pathways, that form important parts of one working group’s agreed outline, were considered as too policy prescriptive in another working group and were excluded.

    In the cycle when we may officially exceed 1.5C global warming and thus the goal of the Agreement signed by virtually all governments, the IPCC will significantly compromise its policy relevance if it cannot focus its assessment, among all the other crucial topics well reflected in the outlines, also on knowledge and science related to NDCs, the Paris Agreement, accelerating not only adaptation but also mitigation action, comprehensive (and policy neutral) ex-post evaluation of policies.

    Without a robust assessment of the exponentially growing experience and knowledge on the topics relevant to our global efforts, we are jeopardizing the effectiveness of these crucial multilateral processes – that have so far taken us off of the worst climate pathways since the PA, and that have helped catalyse important achievements such as loss and damage funds and other financial instruments.

    We could also jeopardise the very existence of multilateralism about climate change. As already signalled by recent events and trends – if the perspectives and efforts of some parties are poorly reflected, if the relevance of IPCC reports to a crucial part of the global discourse is compromised – it is increasingly concerning how long some parties can still uphold their strong moral (and financial) commitment to not only IPCC but also the multilateral processes such as the UNFCCC, considering the shifts in preferences of their voters.

    This is a risk to all of us.

    Disclaimer: These are my personal views and not those of the IPCC
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    Stable future

    Ještě ve středu budou panovat mrazy, kdy rtuť teploměru klesne až na minus 15 stupňů Celsia. Ve čtvrtek se prudce oteplí na 15 stupňů, v pátek by se na západě Německa mohlo naměřit dokonce až 18 stupňů. Víkend přinese dokonce dvouciferné hodnoty po celém Německu s maximy 19 stupňů nebo těsně pod 20 stupni na jihozápadě.

    Evropu čeká skok do jara, teploty stoupnou až o 30 stupňů - Novinky
    https://www.novinky.cz/clanek/zahranicni-evropa-evropu-ceka-skok-do-jara-teploty-stoupnou-o-30-stupnu-40509455
    ROGER_WILCO
    ROGER_WILCO --- ---
    Jan Umsonst https://www.facebook.com/taoist.attack/posts/3422485977881946
    ·
    A look on the Southern Ocean marine heatwaves - doesn't look good, as they are also intensifying...
    Our main problem: ocean heat uptake remained even during the El Nino 2023/24 on record levels - insane the numbers of the last years!
    Important for this post: During La Ninas the oceans take up much more heat than during El Ninos.
    The central to eastern tropical Pacific being colder than normal during La NInas supports ocean heat uptake over the abnormal cold areas. During El Ninos the opposite happens as the oceans loose vast amounts of heat to the atmosphere during El Ninos when the central to eastern tropical Pacific is warmer than normal.
    The high rates of ocean heat uptake during the triple La Nina from 2020 to 2022 are thought to be one reason behind the exceptional ocean surface warming during 2023/24. Some of the take up heat resurfaced into the upper mixed layer during 2023/24 which caused this exceptional surface warming signal. The El Nino in 2023/24 played here a large role.
    Still the signal of heat resurfacing had been exceptional.
    But now we have the problem that ocean heat uptake did not decline or reversed during 2023/24 when we had the last El Nino emitting vast amounts of energy into the atmosphere.
    The rates of ocean heat uptake had been similar in 2023/24 to 2020-22, which should not be possible, at least not back on back...
    Lets talk about numbers...
    The numbers of ocean heat uptake (IAP/CAS dataset) in 2021 of 15Zj, 2022 of 19Zj, 2023 of 16Zj and 2024 of 16ZJ (1) have to be seen in relation to these numbers:
    Regardless of which estimate is used, there has been a two- to three- fold increase in the rate of increase in OHC since the late 1980s. For example, according to the IAP analy- sis, the OHC trend for 1958–1985 is 3.1 ± 0.5 ZJ yr−1, and since 1986, the OHC trend is 9.2 ± 0.5 ZJ yr−1 (Fig. 2). The IAP trend within 1958–1985 of 3.1 ± 0.5 ZJ yr−1 is higher than the previous release in Cheng et al. (2023) (2.3 ± 0.5 ZJ yr−1), mainly because the new inclusion of the bottle data bias correction. After 2007, with better global coverage of ocean subsurface data, OHC uncertainty is reduced. There is a significant warming trend of 10.8 ± 1.2 ZJ yr−1 and 10.3 ± 0.8 ZJ yr−1 from 2007–2023 for IAP/CAS and NCEI/NOAA (seasonal time series), respectively (Fig. 2). The NCEI three-month OHC estimate has a slightly stronger trend than the pentadal time series from 2005 to 2020, indicating the impact of sam- pling changes associated with the mapping approach. (2)
    (1) New Record Ocean Temperatures and Related Climate Indicators in 2023"; https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00376-024-3378-5
    (2) "Record High Temperatures in the Ocean in 2024"; https://link.springer.com/.../10.1007/s00376-025-4541-3...
    These studies are important for what happens in the oceans (read them in the order):
    (1) "New Record Ocean Temperatures and Related Climate Indichttps://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00376-024-3378-5
    (2) "A Glimpse into the Future: The 2023 Ocean Temperature and Sea Ice Extremes in the Context of Longer-Term Climate Change "; https://journals.ametsoc.org/.../105/3/BAMS-D-23-0209.1.xml
    (3) "Record High Temperatures in the Ocean in 2024"; https://link.springer.com/.../10.1007/s00376-025-4541-3...
    (4) "Quantifying the acceleration of multidecadal global sea surface warming driven by Earth's energy imbalance"; https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/adaa8a
    "Drivers of the 2023 record shattering marine heat extreme in the North Atlantic"; https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-5046018/v1
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Island Futures
    https://www.islandfutures.earth/

    ISLANDS FOR THE FUTURE OF HUMANITY is a non-partisan collaborative think tank. We develop resilience options to help ensure island nations can weather the impact of global catastrophes.

    Our work includes evidence-based research reports, empirical studies, and events promoting approaches to mitigate risks such as nuclear war or extreme pandemics.

    We curate evidence, coordinate catastrophe research, and create engaging online and in-person gatherings. We act to inform and assist communities, central government, and essential services, in achieving societal resilience to global catastrophes.

    We are starting in New Zealand but hope all islands can learn from our work.
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