pivotal as ever

Could Santa Marta climate talks mark ground zero in push to ditch fossil fuels? | Global climate talks | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/may/01/could-key-climate-talks-mark-ground-zero-in-global-push-to-ditch-fossil-fuels

the Colombian government took a bold step to shift its economy – and that of the rest of the world – away from dependence on coal, gas and oil and into a new era of clean energy. With the first ever conference on “transitioning away from fossil fuels”, the host joined nearly 60 countries determined to loosen of the grip of petrostates on the world’s future.

“This is the beginning of a new global climate democracy,” Irene Vélez Torres, Colombia’s environment minister and chair of the talks, said in closing remarks that celebrated a “new method” of bringing together high-ambition governments, parliamentarians and civil society groups to accelerate the decarbonisation of their economies.

At this moment in history, the conference may also mark a new global divide between “electro-democracies” and petro-dictatorships.

The initiative has come at a pivotal moment in the climate fight. Oil and gas prices have soared since the US-Israeli attacks on Iran, the second such crisis within five years, after the price rises that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Households around the world are spiralling into debt, farmers cannot afford fertiliser and governments are remembering that a dependency on volatile fossil fuels is holding them hostage to geopolitical forces they cannot control.

New book incoming

Climate, Hydrocarbons, Sanctions: Perspectives on the Russian Arctic Hardcover – 16 April 2026

by Arild Moe (Author), Anna Korppoo (Author)

This timely book addresses the impact of global energy trends and rapid climate change on the Arctic’s increasing role in Russia’s hydrocarbon-based economy in the new geopolitical landscape. Arild Moe and Anna Korppoo utilise new data to provide a comprehensive understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of Russia’s Arctic development strategy and its economic underpinning, with its emphasis on hydrocarbon extraction and exports.
Chapters analyse the potential developments that may impact Russia’s future activities in the Arctic. Key topics include scientific progress, the role of climate policy and public concerns, the economic foundation of mega-projects in the Arctic, and the repercussions of sanctions after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Moe and Korppoo offer key insights, arguing that geopolitics and the energy transition away from fossil fuels will be pressures Russia must eventually confront.

‘Daunting but doable’: Europe urged to prepare for 3C of global heating | Climate crisis | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/feb/16/europe-climate-advisory-board-3c-global-heating

Maarten van Aalst, a member of the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change (ESABCC), said the continent was already “paying a price” for its lack of preparation but that adapting to a hotter future was in part “common sense and low-hanging fruit”.

“It is a daunting task, but at the same time quite a doable task. It’s not rocket science,” said van Aalst, who used to lead the climate centre at the International Red Cross and Red Crescent and is now the director general of the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI).

The ESABCC describes current efforts to adapt to rising temperatures as “insufficient, largely incremental [and] often coming too late” in a new report that advises officials to prepare for a world 2.8-3.3C hotter than preindustrial levels by 2100.

...

Weather extremes in Europe in recent years have at times surprised climate scientists with their strength and adaptation experts with their lethality as rising temperatures have warped the climate.

Heavy rains supercharged by climate breakdown killed 134 people in Germany’s Ahr valley in 2021 and 229 people in the Valencia region of Spain in 2024. Across the continent, summer heat kills many tens of thousands of people each year, with studies attributing between half and two-thirds of the death toll to the rise in temperatures caused by fossil fuel pollution. Last year’s wildfires, meanwhile, torched more of Europe than scientists have ever recorded.

Last week, Portugal was urged to draw up climate adaptation plans as the country was hit by an unprecedented series of storms that killed at least 16 people and caused an estimated €775m (£675m) of damage.

Governments must fix ‘faulty radar’ in economic climate models as storm approaches, scientists warn - Carbon Tracker Initiative
https://carbontracker.org/governments-must-fix-faulty-radar-in-economic-climate-models-as-storm-approaches-scientists-warn/

Flawed economic models mean climate crisis could crash global economy, experts warn | Green economy | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/feb/05/flawed-economic-models-mean-climate-crisis-could-crash-global-economy-experts-warn



This report by the Carbon Tracker Initiative and the University of Exeter makes clear that the economic modeling currently employed by many governments, regulators, and financial managers greatly underestimates the potential impacts of climate change. What this means is that we are speeding towards Armageddon while wearing rose-tinted glasses.

- - - - - - - - - -

"Flawed economic models mean the accelerating impact of the climate crisis could lead to a global financial crash, experts warn.

Recovery would be far harder than after the 2008 financial crash, they said, as “we can’t bail out the Earth like we did the banks”.

As the world speeds towards 2C of global heating, the risks of extreme weather disasters and climate tipping points are increasing fast. But current economic models used by governments and financial institutions entirely miss such shocks, the researchers said, instead forecasting that steady economic growth will be slowed only by gradually rising average temperatures. This is because the models assume the future will behave like the past, despite the burning of fossil fuels pushing the climate system into uncharted territory.

Tipping points, such as the collapse of critical Atlantic currents or the Greenland ice sheet, would have global consequences for society. Some are thought to be at, or very close to, their tipping points but the timing is difficult to predict. Combined extreme weather disasters could wipe out national economies, the researchers, from the University of Exeter and financial thinktank Carbon Tracker Initiative, said.

Their report concludes governments, regulators and financial managers must pay far more attention to these high impact but lower likelihood risks, because avoiding irreversible outcomes by cutting carbon emissions is far cheaper than trying to cope with them.

“We’re not dealing with manageable economic adjustments,” said Dr Jesse Abrams, at the University of Exeter. “The climate scientists we surveyed were unambiguous: current economic models can’t capture what matters most – the cascading failures and compounding shocks that define climate risk in a warmer world – and could undermine the very foundations of economic growth.”

“For financial institutions and policymakers, it’s a fundamental misreading of the risks we face,” he said. “We are thinking about something like a 2008 [crash], but one we can’t recover from as well. Once we have ecosystem breakdown or climate breakdown, we can’t bail out the Earth like we did the banks.”

Mark Campanale, CEO of Carbon Tracker, said: “The net result of flawed economic advice is widespread complacency amongst investors and policymakers. There’s a tendency in certain government departments to trivialise the impacts of climate on the economy so as to avoid making difficult choices today. This is a big problem – the consequences of delay are catastrophic.”

Hetal Patel, at Phoenix Group, which manages about £300bn of long-term investments for its customers, said: “Underestimating physical risk doesn’t just distort investment decisions, it underplays the real‑world consequences that will ultimately affect society as a whole.”

Actuaries predicted in 2025 that the global economy could face a 50% loss in GDP between 2070 and 2090 from catastrophic climate shocks, far higher than previously estimated.

The new report drew on expert judgments from 68 climate scientists from research institutions and government agencies in the UK, US, China and nine other countries. A key finding was that while economic modelling traditionally links climate damages to changes in average temperatures, societies and markets suffer most from extremes, such as heatwaves, floods and droughts.

Another finding was that GDP can mask the full cost of climate damage by failing to account for deaths and ill health, social disruption and degraded ecosystems. GDP can actually increase after disasters owing to spending on recovery, the researchers added.

They said that rather than waiting for perfect models of risk, greater emphasis should be placed on extremes, not just central estimates, and on the vulnerability of the entire financial system. Investors should also speed up the move away from fossil fuels as a fiduciary duty to avoid large future losses, said Campanale.

Current economic models can give estimates of losses that look precise but which the scientists said were wildly optimistic. “Some are saying we’ll have a 10% GDP loss at between 3C and 4C degrees [of global heating], but the physical climate scientists are saying the economy and society will cease to function as we know it. That’s a big mismatch,” Abrams said.

Laurie Laybourn, at the Strategic Climate Risks Initiative, said: “We are currently living through a paradigm shift in the speed, scale and severity of risks driven by the climate-nature crisis. Yet many regulations and government actions are dangerously out of touch with reality.” - Damian Carrington