A new study warns hurricanes will likely get stronger and more common in the Atlantic and East Pacific Oceans, putting coastal towns from Florida to Mexico at greater risk, the study's researchers said via Phys.org.

What's happening?
University of Reading scientists said they have managed to take a potentially game-changing step in determining ways to predict hurricanes up to 10 years ahead of time.

Their findings are concerning if their modeling is accurate, too. The researchers, using software from the U.K. Met Office, said their projections indicate that the rates of tropical cyclones — hurricanes and tropical storms that are below hurricane levels of strength — are likely to double from their 1970s levels. They also projected significant increases of such storms in the East Pacific through 2030, though at a less dramatic spike, increasing by roughly a third.

Scientists issue jaw-dropping warning about future of powerful hurricanes: 'Time to prepare'
https://www.thecooldown.com/outdoors/increasing-hurricane-predictions-atlantic-east-pacific/

Diana Urge-VorsatzDiana Urge-Vorsatz
• 2nd • 2nd Vice Chair of the IPCC, Professor at Department of Environmental Sciences and Policy, Central European University
2h • 2 hours ago

After immensely hard work and many sleepless hours, the IPCC can be very proud to have the planned content of all the products of the Seventh Assessment hashtag#AR7 cycle agreed on.

At the same time, I need to register my concerns about the future of both the IPCC as well as our global climate based on certain trends that the changes in the outlines signal.

It is concerning that key words that formed the backbone of previous reports, assessments that were consistent and among the most used components of ARs cycle after cycle after cycle were not accepted to be included in the outlines.

Key scientific concepts, such as hashtag#policies, hashtag#exPostEvaluation, hashtag#scenarios, hashtag#pathways, hashtag#infrastructure, national and subnational [policies], hashtag#lockin, hashtag#maladaptation, hashtag#targets, hashtag#goals, hashtag#NDCs, hashtag#fossilfuels, hashtag#subsidies, cost of inaction, hashtag#UNFCCC, hashtag#ParisAgreement, trade, conflict, market-based [instruments], non-state actors, hashtag#electrification, policy packages, acceleration, hashtag#overshoot, environmental impacts, hashtag#attribution, future emission trends, among others – have been questioned and either cut or replaced in many places, many of these key words do not appear any more in the outline of one WG.

Some words, like the hashtag#ParisAgreement, acceleration, pathways, that form important parts of one working group’s agreed outline, were considered as too policy prescriptive in another working group and were excluded.

In the cycle when we may officially exceed 1.5C global warming and thus the goal of the Agreement signed by virtually all governments, the IPCC will significantly compromise its policy relevance if it cannot focus its assessment, among all the other crucial topics well reflected in the outlines, also on knowledge and science related to NDCs, the Paris Agreement, accelerating not only adaptation but also mitigation action, comprehensive (and policy neutral) ex-post evaluation of policies.

Without a robust assessment of the exponentially growing experience and knowledge on the topics relevant to our global efforts, we are jeopardizing the effectiveness of these crucial multilateral processes – that have so far taken us off of the worst climate pathways since the PA, and that have helped catalyse important achievements such as loss and damage funds and other financial instruments.

We could also jeopardise the very existence of multilateralism about climate change. As already signalled by recent events and trends – if the perspectives and efforts of some parties are poorly reflected, if the relevance of IPCC reports to a crucial part of the global discourse is compromised – it is increasingly concerning how long some parties can still uphold their strong moral (and financial) commitment to not only IPCC but also the multilateral processes such as the UNFCCC, considering the shifts in preferences of their voters.

This is a risk to all of us.

Disclaimer: These are my personal views and not those of the IPCC

Stable future

Ještě ve středu budou panovat mrazy, kdy rtuť teploměru klesne až na minus 15 stupňů Celsia. Ve čtvrtek se prudce oteplí na 15 stupňů, v pátek by se na západě Německa mohlo naměřit dokonce až 18 stupňů. Víkend přinese dokonce dvouciferné hodnoty po celém Německu s maximy 19 stupňů nebo těsně pod 20 stupni na jihozápadě.

Evropu čeká skok do jara, teploty stoupnou až o 30 stupňů - Novinky
https://www.novinky.cz/clanek/zahranicni-evropa-evropu-ceka-skok-do-jara-teploty-stoupnou-o-30-stupnu-40509455

Jan Umsonst https://www.facebook.com/taoist.attack/posts/3422485977881946
·
A look on the Southern Ocean marine heatwaves - doesn't look good, as they are also intensifying...
Our main problem: ocean heat uptake remained even during the El Nino 2023/24 on record levels - insane the numbers of the last years!
Important for this post: During La Ninas the oceans take up much more heat than during El Ninos.
The central to eastern tropical Pacific being colder than normal during La NInas supports ocean heat uptake over the abnormal cold areas. During El Ninos the opposite happens as the oceans loose vast amounts of heat to the atmosphere during El Ninos when the central to eastern tropical Pacific is warmer than normal.
The high rates of ocean heat uptake during the triple La Nina from 2020 to 2022 are thought to be one reason behind the exceptional ocean surface warming during 2023/24. Some of the take up heat resurfaced into the upper mixed layer during 2023/24 which caused this exceptional surface warming signal. The El Nino in 2023/24 played here a large role.
Still the signal of heat resurfacing had been exceptional.
But now we have the problem that ocean heat uptake did not decline or reversed during 2023/24 when we had the last El Nino emitting vast amounts of energy into the atmosphere.
The rates of ocean heat uptake had been similar in 2023/24 to 2020-22, which should not be possible, at least not back on back...
Lets talk about numbers...
The numbers of ocean heat uptake (IAP/CAS dataset) in 2021 of 15Zj, 2022 of 19Zj, 2023 of 16Zj and 2024 of 16ZJ (1) have to be seen in relation to these numbers:
Regardless of which estimate is used, there has been a two- to three- fold increase in the rate of increase in OHC since the late 1980s. For example, according to the IAP analy- sis, the OHC trend for 1958–1985 is 3.1 ± 0.5 ZJ yr−1, and since 1986, the OHC trend is 9.2 ± 0.5 ZJ yr−1 (Fig. 2). The IAP trend within 1958–1985 of 3.1 ± 0.5 ZJ yr−1 is higher than the previous release in Cheng et al. (2023) (2.3 ± 0.5 ZJ yr−1), mainly because the new inclusion of the bottle data bias correction. After 2007, with better global coverage of ocean subsurface data, OHC uncertainty is reduced. There is a significant warming trend of 10.8 ± 1.2 ZJ yr−1 and 10.3 ± 0.8 ZJ yr−1 from 2007–2023 for IAP/CAS and NCEI/NOAA (seasonal time series), respectively (Fig. 2). The NCEI three-month OHC estimate has a slightly stronger trend than the pentadal time series from 2005 to 2020, indicating the impact of sam- pling changes associated with the mapping approach. (2)
(1) New Record Ocean Temperatures and Related Climate Indicators in 2023"; https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00376-024-3378-5
(2) "Record High Temperatures in the Ocean in 2024"; https://link.springer.com/.../10.1007/s00376-025-4541-3...
These studies are important for what happens in the oceans (read them in the order):
(1) "New Record Ocean Temperatures and Related Climate Indichttps://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00376-024-3378-5
(2) "A Glimpse into the Future: The 2023 Ocean Temperature and Sea Ice Extremes in the Context of Longer-Term Climate Change "; https://journals.ametsoc.org/.../105/3/BAMS-D-23-0209.1.xml
(3) "Record High Temperatures in the Ocean in 2024"; https://link.springer.com/.../10.1007/s00376-025-4541-3...
(4) "Quantifying the acceleration of multidecadal global sea surface warming driven by Earth's energy imbalance"; https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/adaa8a
"Drivers of the 2023 record shattering marine heat extreme in the North Atlantic"; https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-5046018/v1

Katerina Kolouchova (Fakta oklimatu)


🇪🇺 European Commission dnes představila očekávaný Kompas konkurenceschopnosti, ve kterém v návaznosti na Draghiho zprávu nastiňuje, jak chce zvýšit konkurenceschopnost unijních podniků.

Celé je to hodně o zjednodušování (povolovacích procesů, státní podpory, reportingu), inovacích, zvyšování soběstačnosti a odolnosti.

💡 Důležité je pro mě opakované potvrzení, že cíle Zelené dohody a klimatické neutrality v roce 2050 zůstávají a že Komise stojí za emisním cílem −90 % pro rok 2040. Stejně tak zůstávají stejné emisní cíle pro automobilový průmysl (ač s explicitní zmínkou technologické neutrality a e-paliv).

Jsem zvědavá na konkrétnější vykreslení dekarbonizačních opatření, které na konci února přinese Clean Industrial Deal.

V samotném Kompasu mě ještě mj. zaujalo, že Komise navrhne vznik 28. právního režimu, ve kterém by pro inovativní podniky odpadaly starosti s 27 různými regulačními prostředími.

Co v Kompasu zaujalo vás?

---
Kompas obsahuje i časový rámec pro jednotlivé iniciativy, např.:

– Clean Industrial Deal and an Action Plan on Affordable Energy [Q1 2025]
– Amendment of the Climate Law [2025]
– Industrial Decarbonisation Accelerator Act [Q4 2025]
– New State Aid Framework [Q2 2025]
– Strategic dialogue on the future of the European automotive industry and Industrial Action Plan [Q1 2025].
– Joint purchasing platform for Critical Raw Minerals [Q2-3 2025]
– Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism Review [2025]
– Circular Economy Act [Q4 2026]

X-Risk
How Humanity Discovered Its Own Extinction
By Thomas Moynihan

Tracing this untold story, Moynihan revisits the pioneers who first contemplated the possibility of human extinction and stages the historical drama of this momentous discovery. He shows how, far from being a secular reprise of religious prophecies of apocalypse, existential risk is a thoroughly modern idea, made possible by the burgeoning sciences and philosophical tumult of the Enlightenment era. In recollecting how we first came to care for our extinction, Moynihan reveals how today's attempts to measure and mitigate existential threats are the continuation of a project initiated over two centuries ago, which concerns the very vocation of the human as a rational, responsible, and future-oriented being.


X-Risk
https://mitpress.mit.edu/9781913029845/x-risk/

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211467X22002255

Abstract
The impacts of global climate change on international security and geopolitics could be of historic proportion, challenging those of previous global threats such as nuclear weapons proliferation, the Great Depression, and terrorism. But while the evidence surrounding the security impacts of climate change is fairly well-understood and improving, less is known about the security risks to climate-technology deployment. In this study, we focus on the geopolitical, security, and military risks facing negative emissions and solar geoengineering options. Although controversial, these options could become the future backbone of a low-carbon or net-zero society, given that they avoid the need for coordinated or global action (and can be deployed by a smaller group of actors, even non-state actors), and that they can “buy time” for mitigation and other options to be scaled up. We utilize a large and diverse expert-interview exercise (N = 125) to critically examine the security risks associated with ten negative emission options (or greenhouse gas removal technologies) and ten solar geoengineering options (or solar radiation management technologies). We ask: What geopolitical considerations does deployment give rise to? What particular military applications exist? What risks do these options entail in terms of weaponization, misuse, and miscalculation? We examine such existing and prospective security risks across a novel conceptual framework envisioning their use as (i) diplomatic or military negotiating tools, (ii) objectives for building capacity, control, or deterrence, (iii) targets in ongoing conflicts, and (iv) causes of new conflicts. This enables us to capture a far broader spectrum of security concerns than those which exist in the extant literature and to go well beyond insights derived from climate modelling or game theory by drawing on a novel, rich, and original dataset of expert perceptions.

Our Science, Your Future: Next Generation of Antarctic Scientists Call for Collaborative Action - AAPP
https://aappartnership.org.au/next-generation-of-antarctic-scientists-call-for-collaborative-action/

Antarctic researchers warn of possible 'catastrophic' sea level rise | ABC News
https://youtu.be/IbgsmEJRWWg?si=tzZcm1AZpW3QZAZM


Antarctic researchers warn of possible 'catastrophic' sea level rise within our lifetime in group statement - ABC News
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-11-22/researchers-warn-of-possible-catastrophic-sea-level-rise/104626804

Hundreds of polar researchers have issued an emergency statement calling for urgent action to deal with the impacts of climate change in Antarctica.

Antarctica and the Southern Ocean have been undergoing rapid and extreme changes in recent years, including unprecedented heatwaves and record-low sea ice levels.

Over the past week, more than 450 researchers gathered in Hobart for the inaugural Australian Antarctic Research Conference — the first such event in more than a decade.

Almost two thirds of attendees were early career researchers, who have released a joint statement titled, Making Antarctica Cool Again.

The statement warns of the potential dire consequences of global sea level rise caused by melting ice sheets.

Cop29 live: talks into overtime as Greta Thunberg says people in power ‘about to agree to death sentence’ | Cop29 | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/live/2024/nov/23/cop29-talks-go-into-overtime-as-countries-wrangle-over-finance-deal-live-coverage

The people in power are yet again about to agree to a death sentence to the countless people whose lives have been or will be ruined by the climate crisis. The current text is full of false solutions and empty promises. The money from the Global North countries needed to pay back their climate debt is still nowhere to be seen.

Those in power are worsening the destabilisation and destruction of our life supporting ecosystems. We are on track to experience the hottest year ever recorded, with the global greenhouse gases reaching an all time high just last year.

The COP processes aren’t just failing us, they are part of a larger system built on injustice and designed to sacrifice current and future generations for the opportunity of a few to keep making unimaginable profits and continue to exploit planet and people.

PER2: Na toto téma
The End of China's Rise and the Future of World Order│Michael Beckley (Tufts University, Professor)
https://youtu.be/IEJcDJq1Mgw?si=MxiCmA3GMg2Q9Bsc

Trump: "One of the most urgent tasks... is to decisively defeat the climate hysteria hoax."

"The radical left's fearmongering about climate and our future is... destroying America's economy,-. It's really hurting us."

x.com
https://x.com/ECOWARRIORSS/status/1854949055895675383?t=wZbt_EzjX1kQds2pr4P8oA&s=19

Overconfidence in climate overshoot

Global emission reduction efforts continue to be insufficient to meet the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement. This makes the systematic exploration of so-called overshoot pathways that temporarily exceed a targeted global warming limit before drawing temperatures back down to safer levels a priority for science and policy.
...
The possibility that global warming could be reversed many decades into the future might be of limited relevance for adaptation planning today. Temperature reversal could be undercut by strong Earth-system feedbacks resulting in high near-term and continuous long-term warming.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-08020-9

Článek k publikaci: https://archive.is/SZWUF