A dalsi uz not so good news

The world may never go back to how it was after this monster El Niño | New Scientist
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2592450-the-world-may-never-go-back-to-how-it-was-after-this-monster-el-nino/

This El Niño is forecast to end around June next year after smashing all records, but its impacts could persist indefinitely in some parts of the world
By Michael Le Page
8 October 2026

The current El Niño is already the strongest on record and is forecast to get even stronger, peaking around November or December. Though it should be over by June next year, the effects of this monster event will continue to be felt long after that.

“I expect that this super El Niño event will drive multiple climate regime shifts like we’ve seen after past super El Niño events,” says hurricane specialist Jeff Masters. “Regime shifts tend to cause considerable trouble – significant disruptions to ecosystems and to the humans that depend on them.”

For instance, this El Niño is expected to lead to a devastating drought in the Amazon that could kill off some of the remaining areas of rainforest. This would release huge quantities of carbon dioxide and also make the whole region permanently drier, because much of the rainfall in rainforests comes from the water evaporating from trees.

The most ambitious ideas to save the world from El Niño
El Niños occur when warm water that has built up in the western Pacific spills east across the equator, making the surface of the eastern Pacific warmer than usual. An El Niño is said to be happening when the sea-surface temperature in one region along the equator is 0.5°C above average; at the time of writing, it is 3.4°C and climbing.

One reason why El Niños end is that the warm water that spreads across the Pacific slowly disperses. Some of it flows away from the equator and the water also cools as it transfers vast amounts of heat to the atmosphere, which leads to a sudden jump in global surface temperatures.

This year’s average temperature is on track to tie with 2024’s at around 1.6°C above the pre-industrial level, and 2027 is expected to reach 1.7°C or more. The next year could be a bit cooler if a La Niña makes the Pacific soak up more heat than usual, but we are on the brink of permanently crossing the 1.5°C threshold we were meant to avoid.

What happens below the surface of the Pacific also plays a key role in bringing about the end of El Niños. For instance, the arrival of warm water in the eastern Pacific triggers gigantic underwater waves known as Rossby waves that travel westwards. When these hit the continental shelf in the western Pacific months later, they bounce back eastwards in the form of cold, faster-moving Kelvin waves. These thin the layer of warm water in the eastern Pacific when they arrive several weeks later, helping deeper, colder water reach the surface and bring the El Niño to an end.

“Many different processes are involved in the onset, maturation and demise of El Niño events,” says Michael McPhaden at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

When will the El Niño end?
The combined forecasts of computer models suggest that this El Niño will be over by June next year, but individual models vary. Some suggest it could persist well into the northern hemisphere’s summer.

We can’t predict with any certainty how this event will end, says McPhaden. The 1997 El Niño ended with a bang, with sea-surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific plummeting by 8°C in a month, followed by a strong, long-lasting La Niña. But the next strong El Niño in 2015 faded gradually and was followed by a weak, short La Niña.

“So, at this point, it is difficult to know precisely how the current El Niño will wind down,” says McPhaden. “Nature loves to confound us with new wrinkles in the epic saga of El Niño, so be prepared for surprises.”

What is certain is that the effects of this event will persist after it ends. Some will be temporary. For instance, the Indian Ocean can become warmer after El Niños – on top of the warming due to global heating – leading to floods in some nearby regions. Some of the worst floods in the Yangtze river occurred in the summer of 1998, after the El Niño that ended in May.

The biggest concern is that the current El Niño could lead to changes that last decades or more. Last year, Jong-Seong Kug at Seoul National University in South Korea and his colleagues published a study showing that the combination of extreme El Niños and global warming can produce climate regime shifts.

After the 2015 super El Niño, there was a sudden increase in sea-surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico that has persisted ever since. The El Niño wasn’t the only factor involved, says Kug, but it contributed to this jump.

The even-stronger El Niño now under way is more likely to trigger such shifts. “We are experiencing a very strong El Niño event,” says Kug. “Based on our study, such an extreme event could substantially increase the likelihood that various components of the Earth system are pushed toward, or even across, regime-shift thresholds.”

In other words, in some parts of the world, the climate will never go back to how it was. “Our civilisation is adapted to the climate of the 20th century, and it is costly and disruptive to be forced to deal with sudden climate regime shifts,” says Masters.

The land's ability to store carbon has bounced back after two bad years | New Scientist
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2593284-the-land-carbon-sink-has-rebounded-strongly-after-two-terrible-years/

The land’s ability to store carbon has bounced back after two bad years
Carbon absorption by forests and grasslands bounced back in 2025 thanks to favourable growing conditions, but El Niño could lead to another sharp slump next year
By Madeleine Cuff
13 October 2026

For the past two years, scientists studying the health of forests, grasslands and swamps have been worried. Since 2023, the amount of carbon dioxide Earth’s landscapes have been able to absorb has dropped dramatically in the face of extreme weather, resulting in a record jump in atmospheric CO2 concentrations in two successive years.

But 2025 has bucked that worrying trend, with preliminary research revealing a strong rebound in the land carbon sink and a corresponding decline in the growth rate of atmospheric CO2.

Terrestrial ecosystems such as forests and grasslands take up CO2 from the atmosphere as they grow, and emit carbon when they decompose or burn. Over recent decades, these ecosystems have tended to absorb more CO2 than they have released, due to warmer temperatures and the fertilising effect of CO2, which boosts plant growth. This creates a global carbon sink that varies in strength from year to year.

“In 2023 and 2024, because of El Niño and the Amazon fires, we had the almost cancellation of the global land sink,” says Philippe Ciais at the Climate and Environment Sciences Laboratory in France, who led the analysis. “This cancellation led to a very high CO2 growth rate, because if CO2 is not taken by land, it stays in the atmosphere.”

Ciais and his colleagues estimate that the land sink absorbed 2.36 gigatonnes of carbon in 2025. This is 0.71 gigatonnes more than the 2015-2022 average.

This recovery was driven largely by a dramatic return of growth in tropical forests. “The climate became more normal, especially in Africa and the Amazon, so the plants recovered their carbon uptake capacity,” says Ciais.

Researchers estimate that natural sinks in the oceans and on land have removed over half of the CO2 emitted by human activities. But this benefit won’t last forever, and scientists expect the world’s land biosphere to shift from being a carbon sink to a carbon source within the next several decades unless human-driven emissions taper off.

The sudden disappearance of the land sink in 2023 and 2024 had researchers worried that the sink was collapsing decades earlier than expected.

2024 was an “extreme year”, says team member Mike O’Sullivan at the University of Exeter in the UK. The “massive recovery” in 2025 is therefore good news, he says. But he warns we don’t know if this recovery effort can be sustained indefinitely, especially if weather patterns become increasingly extreme.In 2023 and 2024, because of El Niño and the Amazon fires, we had the almost cancellation of the global land sink,” says Philippe Ciais at the Climate and Environment Sciences Laboratory in France, who led the analysis. “This cancellation led to a very high CO2 growth rate, because if CO2 is not taken by land, it stays in the atmosphere.”

Ciais and his colleagues estimate that the land sink absorbed 2.36 gigatonnes of carbon in 2025. This is 0.71 gigatonnes more than the 2015-2022 average.

This recovery was driven largely by a dramatic return of growth in tropical forests. “The climate became more normal, especially in Africa and the Amazon, so the plants recovered their carbon uptake capacity,” says Ciais.The super El Niño already under way in the Pacific is expected to become the most intense in history later this year, bringing extreme heat and drought to crucial terrestrial sinks such as the Amazon rainforest. This means another sharp slump in carbon uptake is expected next year.

Such a cycle of repeated weather shocks, fuelled by climate change, may be weakening the global land sink’s long-term ability to store carbon, warns O’Sullivan. This sink is already 25 per cent smaller than it would have been without the effects of climate change and natural variability, researchers estimate.

“The land is showing short-term resilience,” says O’Sullivan. “There is a short-term shock, which is the El Niño, and it is recovering the year after. There is strong evidence of that happening. What it doesn’t mean is that the land is going to maintain long-term resilience to climate change.”

Reference: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.34226

Z cyklu #doomed

Methane - 86 times more powerful than CO2 over 20 years - is being emitted from thawing permafrost all over the Arctic. This is expected to add 20% to global warming this century, more later. Important when every fraction of a degree counts.

Heat-trapping gas once frozen in Arctic ground is slowly leaking and warming the planet
https://phys.org/news/2026-10-gas-frozen-arctic-ground-slowly.html

In his final UN speech, Macron may have given other leaders a valuable parting gift: the guts to stand up to Trump | Steve Bloomfield | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/sep/26/un-speech-macron-parting-gift-stand-up-to-trump


Roger Hallam - 1. FULL OF SHIT BECAUSE HE WON'T DO SHIT...
https://www.facebook.com/share/1GzDxQT1Up/

Macron declared this week that "a life is a life" which is probably the sickest joke of the year. We are hitting 1.7C next year, tens of millions in the Global South are going to die, billions of lives will be disrupted. As we hit 2C in the next decade due to the mass death agenda of Macron's neo-liberal regime, the next 100 generations will have to deal with the catastrophies he and his fellow psychopaths created. 'A life' for Macron means absolutely fuck all.

Liberals make castles in the air and then wonder why people hate them so much when they never deliver because their golden rule is to always administrate a regime that is literally destroying the world.

Roll on what the French do best...

In the near term, Canada will continue warming at close to twice the global rate, with an increase of about 0.9°C (0.2–1.6°C) from 2021 to 2040 in all emissions scenarios (high confidence). On average over this 20-year period, Canada is projected to be 2.7°C (1.8–3.6°C) warmer (high confidence) and receive 7% (5–10%) more precipitation (medium confidence) compared to the 1850–1900 average.

Chapter 3: Overview of future changes in climate - Canada.ca
https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/science-technology/changing-climate-report-2026/cccr-chapter-3-en.html
...
Do zpráv se to nedostalo

The Himalayas are melting faster - and India's economy is 'at risk'
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crm9ezvwjpno


R Hallam
Roger Hallam - 1. NOTICE THE INVERTED COMMAS - "AT RISK"...
https://www.facebook.com/share/1KQ2TqPCpf/

1. NOTICE THE INVERTED COMMAS - "AT RISK"

The core ideology of the global suicide regime that rules over us is that the natural world is supernaturally separated from the social world. So while causality in the natural world is objective, when the natural world affects the social world then it is always a hypothesis - a subjectivity - certainly something to put inverted commas around.

The absurdity of this is illustrated in the following sentence - "A one mile wide meteorite is certain to hit New York tomorrow and the US economy is "at risk"."

This is how we are duped into thinking effective certainty is merely "risk", and so we passively walk into mass death.

And just in case you don't know, the Indian economy is not "at risk", the Indian economy is going to be utterly fucked.

What’s the Government’s plan? Its own National Security Assessment warns that: “Global ecosystem degradation and collapse threaten UK national security and prosperity.” It says every critical ecosy...
https://www.facebook.com/share/v/19nrwQp2Pt/

What’s the Government’s plan?

Its own National Security Assessment warns that:

“Global ecosystem degradation and collapse threaten UK national security and prosperity.”

It says every critical ecosystem is on a pathway to collapse and warns of serious threats from biodiversity loss, food and water insecurity, flooding, drought, extreme heat, displacement and geopolitical instability.

But the assessment released to the public is redacted.

Today we’re taking Love & Rage to the streets of London.

We’re demanding:
• The full, unredacted National Security Assessment
• A UK-wide briefing on the climate and nature risks facing us
• A plan to address the threats the Government’s own assessment identifies

At the heart of today’s procession is a Cacerolazo — hundreds of people banging pots and pans, demanding that the climate and nature crisis can no longer be ignored.

And leading the procession is Le Crucible, our giant simmering casserole.

Because we’re all in the same soup and it’s coming to the boil.

❤️ Love for the Earth and for life itself.
🔥 Rage at continued denial and delay.

Tell the Truth. Act Now. What’s the Plan?

Read the National Security Assessment:

Nature security assessment on global biodiversity loss, ecosystem collapse and national security - GOV.UK
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/nature-security-assessment-on-global-biodiversity-loss-ecosystem-collapse-and-national-security

More about Love & Rage:

Love & rage - Extinction Rebellion UK
https://extinctionrebellion.uk/love-and-rage/

Facebook
https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1Fz7JAoznf/

The rate of the Earth Energy Imbalance (EEI) increase and global Ocean Heat Content (OHC) increase (mostly to deep into the uppermost 2000 meter layer) more than doubled starting in ~2017 and is related to the strong El Niño (EN) of 2015-2016. With the 2026-2027 EN looking like it will be stronger by a large margin, the inference is that this could lead to a sharp additional rise in the rate of global OHC increase and of the EEI around 2028. If that is the case then a larger average global 2 m height air temperature increase is already baked in unless we drastically and very rapidly reduce greenhouse gas emissions and existing atmospheric concentrations.

The sharp increase and subsequent acceleration in global OHC starting in ~2017 is primarily driven by accelerating atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and the accumulation of Earth's excess thermal energy deep within the ocean layers. Because the world's oceans absorb more than 90% of the excess heat trapped by greenhouse gases, full-depth OHC acts as the primary indicator of global warming, experiencing less year-to-year fluctuation from temporary weather events than surface temperatures do.

Scientists point to several overlapping factors that explain the distinct surge around 2017:

1. The planet experienced one of the most powerful El Niño events on record between 2015 and 2016. During an El Niño, vast amounts of ocean heat are released into the atmosphere, causing atmospheric surface temperatures to spike. Once that cycle ended, the ocean surface cooled slightly, but the ongoing global energy imbalance meant the oceans immediately resumed absorbing massive amounts of heat. Instead of staying at the surface, this heat was mixed and stored deep into the 0–2000 meter layers.

2. According to findings published by the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), the sharp spike in 2017 was not uniform across the planet. An unusually massive amount of thermal energy was deposited into the Atlantic Ocean and the Southern Ocean, pushing full OHC to record-breaking thresholds—absorbing an extra 1.51 x 10^22 Joules compared to previous baselines.

3. Data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) confirmed that 2017 saw atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations hit 405 parts per million (ppm), which was the highest in modern recorded history. Currently it is 427 to 429 ppm. As these gases trap more energy, Earth’s energy imbalance worsens, forcing the oceans to continually uptake greater quantities of heat at a much faster rate.

4. According to data tracked by NASA’s Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO), the upper 200 meters of the ocean saw a pronounced acceleration in heat content right after 2017. This acceleration means that the ocean is warming more than twice as fast over the last decade compared to previous decades.

Because water has a much higher heat capacity than air (the oceans have a total heat capacity about 1,000 times that of the atmosphere) the oceans act as Earth's primary climate buffer.

In 2025, ocean heat content (OHC) set yet another consecutive record high, storing an immense volume of energy.

The oceans absorb about 90% of the EEI while EEI is accelerating. While the total amount of heat the ocean absorbs is skyrocketing - because the total EEI is accelerating - the 90% share is projected to remain relatively stable in the near future, though subtle shifts are possible.

The absolute velocity of heat absorption is accelerating. Due to rising greenhouse gases and declining global reflectivity (albedo) from melting ice and fewer marine clouds, the Earth's total energy imbalance has dramatically widened. 👉The rate of ocean warming has effectively quadrupled over the past four decades.👈

As the top layer of the ocean warms, it becomes less dense than the cold water beneath it, leading to increased stratification (layering). This makes it harder for the ocean to mix. If the warm surface layer cannot efficiently transport heat down into the deep ocean, the surface layer will heat up even faster. Over a long timeframe, this could decrease the ocean’s efficiency as a heat sink, leaving a slightly higher fraction of heat to remain in the atmosphere and accelerate land warming.

Large -scale ocean currents like the AMOC act as a conveyor belt that pushes heat into the deep ocean. Climate models indicate that as fresh meltwater from glaciers flows into the sea, the AMOC may weaken. A weaker conveyor belt alters regional heat uptake patterns and reduces how effectively the deep ocean stores excess energy.

While the ocean’s heat absorption remains high, its carbon dioxide absorption is a different story. The ocean absorbs about 25–30% of human-emitted CO2. However, warmer water physically holds less dissolved gas. Scientists have observed that the ocean’s carbon sink capacity is showing signs of weakening during extreme heat years. If the ocean absorbs less CO2, atmospheric CO2 will rise faster, widening the EEI and forcing the ocean to absorb even more heat.

More: https://ecco-group.org/ohc.htm

STUNNING INCREASE, IN ACCELERATING IN EARTH'S ENERGY IMBALANCE

2026 Earth Energy Imbalance is higher that 2006 by a factor of 3.7- Totally Stunning. That means global warming cannot stop increasing and at an accelerating rate (James Hansen El Nino post). This is the world energy and climate policy scenario of doom. (Leon Simons, 3 Sept 2026)

‘Godzilla-level’ El Niño could cause hottest year on record - The Latest | | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/news/video/2026/sep/03/godzilla-level-el-nino-could-cause-hottest-year-on-record-the-latest

The UN has warned that the El Niño climate phenomenon is ‘supersizing before our eyes’. The event is forecast to be the largest in at least 1,000 years and will almost certainly shatter temperature records. After a summer of record-breaking heatwaves and extreme weather due to global heating, El Niño means 2027 is almost certain to be the hottest year ever recorded

To boldly go, where no one has gone before

...

The goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 ºC to avoid the most dangerous consequences of climate change is officially dead. According to a report released today by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), the best the planet can hope for on its current emissions trajectory is warming of about 1.8 ºC above pre-industrial levels this century.

“Obviously, yes, we have climate procrastinated,” Inger Anderson, UNEP’s executive director, said during a briefing on 1 September. “And obviously yes, when we started UNFCCC [the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change] we knew what action had to be taken. And we have not taken it at the speed that we could have.”

UN finally admits global warming will shoot past 1.5 ºC climate limit | Nature
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-026-02753-5

Heating and cooling together now account for more than 40 percent of global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions.

OMNIHASH: no to je snad jasny, akorat, kdyz se ti otepluje, tak ta sance se krapet zvysuje...

January 21, 2026
University of Portsmouth
Mountain regions around the world are heating up faster than the lands below them, triggering dramatic shifts in snow, rain, and water supply that could affect over a billion people. A major global review finds that rising temperatures are turning snowfall into rain, shrinking glaciers, and making mountain weather more extreme and unpredictable. These changes threaten water sources for huge populations, including those in China and India, while also increasing risks of floods, ecosystem collapse, and deadly weather events.

(2017) The Long Summer : How Climate Changed Civilization
https://www.amazon.com/dp/1862076448?lv=shuf&channelId=500&plpRedirect=mhFallback


The Earth's climate has always been in glacial periods and warm ones have slowly and relentlessly alternated for millennia. But the period of global warming of the last 15,000 years is without precedent, and it set the conditions which enabled civilization to arise. It is our 'long summer'. From the almost unimaginably hostile climate of the late Ice to the onset of 'Little Ice Age', which began in 1315 and lasted half a millennium, this book tells the remarkable story of how human history has been influenced by the planet's ever-changing climate. Brian Fagan deploys all the resources of the new climatology to reveal the complex interplay between human development and the weather. He shows that human beings have proved themselves to be at their most resilient and adaptable when the Earth's volatile climate has posed the greatest severe droughts in southwestern Asia, the drying of the Sahara brought cattle people to the Nile Valley with their distinctive ideas of leadership, and the ripple effects of the Medieval Warm Period had very different and profound impacts in Europe and the Americas. Confronted with such challenges, our ancestors time and again rose to meet

Kupodivu pouze 10 M lidi je v rizikové oblasti zaplav z ledovce. Pravděpodobně ani jeden miliardář.

Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) and the melting of the ‘Third Pole’ · Global Voices
https://globalvoices.org/2025/10/02/glacial-lake-outburst-floods-glofs-and-the-melting-of-the-third-pole/

“The ecological transformation is the major focus of our project,” the essayist and co-founder of the Place Publique party announced to the press. “ As soon as we win, we will launch the first hundred days of the ecological revolution.” These first hundred days will “free France” from “its addiction to gas and oil , ” “will restore its sovereignty, and will make the fight against global warming the alpha and omega of public policy ,” he emphasized from the Valorem wind farm in Charente-Maritime.

He regrets that Emmanuel Macron "did not want and was not able to initiate these transformations over the last ten years . "

Client Challenge
https://www.lemonde.fr/election-presidentielle-2027/article/2026/08/25/raphael-glucksmann-promet-une-revolution-ecologique-en-cent-jours-s-il-est-elu-president-de-la-republique_6756579_6205049.html