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    TUHOKlimaticka zmena / Destroying the Future Is the Most Cost-Effective


    "Given the sheer enormity of climate change, it’s okay to be depressed, to grieve. But please, don’t stay there too long. Join me in pure, unadulterated, righteous anger."


    "I don’t want your hope. I don’t want you to be hopeful. ... I want you to act. Once you start to act, the hope is everywhere."

    "Our best scientists tell us insistently that a calamity is unfolding, that the life-support systems of the Earth are being damaged in ways that threaten our survival. Yet in the face of these facts we carry on as usual."

    Rostouci hladiny oceanu, zmena atmosferickeho proudeni, zmeny v distribuci srazek a sucha. Zmeny karbonoveho, fosforoveho a dusikoveho cyklu, okyselovani oceanu. Jake jsou bezpecnostni rizika a jake potencialni klady dramatickych zmen fungovani zemskeho systemu?
    Ale take jak funguji masove dezinformacni kampane ropneho prumyslu a boj o verejne mineni na prahu noveho klimatickeho rezimu post-holocenu.
    rozbalit záhlaví
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    TADEAS: aneb naznaky klimatickeho povstani, pro mainstream levicova anarchie.


    We can no longer afford the rich.
    We can initiate the end of the imperial lifestyle.
    We can stop the plundering of the Earth.
    In the greed for energy, the Earth is being drained, sucked dry, burned, abused, razed, raped, and destroyed. Entire regions are rendered uninhabitable by the heat. They simply burn up. Or habitats disappear beneath the waves during floods or due to rising sea levels.
    Shutting down fossil fuel power plants is a task that can be accomplished by hand. Have courage.
    We know we must interrupt this destruction. We know we are not alone. Don't give up hope for a world where life has space, not the greed for money, power, and destruction.

    ...

    Last year, the CO₂ concentration in the atmosphere rose to 423.9 parts per million, a value that surpasses all previous records. At the same time, climate scientists agree that the massive transatlantic ocean currents will collapse sooner or later due to global warming. This collapse of ocean currents, which has so far afforded the North a mild climate, is only one part of the catastrophe that awaits us. The extent of this devastation is simply ignored, abstracted, and discussed at global climate conferences until the scale of the destruction disappears into tables and declarations of intent.
    But the insatiable hunger for energy is eating its way through the Earth's crust and our lives, among other things to feed artificial intelligence, which then spouts stereotypes and absurdities, confusing, disorienting, and/or manipulating us. Meanwhile, with each new "learning" of the AI ​​using previous data, language, expression, and vitality are increasingly reduced, mutilated, and limited.

    ...

    We don't claim to know the way out. But we do know we must stop this destruction. Hedonism can no longer hold us captive once we've tasted the sweat of fear that spreads when there's no way out. No going forward, no going back. Only the horror of where we, as humanity, have ended up. When the question falls back on us, what did you actually do to prevent what was coming? You saw it coming, the survivors, the next generations, ask us. Please don't bring up the political parties. Please don't bring up the brown-shirted alternatives in pinstriped suits and dresses. And not the Greens or the Left either. Don't bring up the economy, whose free market will supposedly solve the problem. Economics and politics deal with death every day. With dictatorships and butchers. Their concerns vanish into thin air when it comes to satisfying our energy needs, for example. Russia is still supplying gas to Europe via Nord Stream 1. And the US wants Venezuela's oil. That's why military attacks are now taking place. And fracked gas arrives by ship from all over the world. Currently, 79% comes from the USA! Fracking is extremely environmentally damaging in its production. Even during extraction, a methane loss of 6 to 10 percent is assumed, which further warms the atmosphere.

    95% of the gas burned in Germany is imported. At climate summits, only tactical lip service is forthcoming because the oil-producing countries are not interested in climate protection but in money. Because the major cities base their policies on money and growth, lobbyists in Europe are being handed the end of the combustion engine phase-out.

    For example, the German Minister of Economic Affairs, Katharina Reiche, was State Secretary in the Federal Ministry of Transport, a lobbyist for the Association of Municipal Enterprises (VKM), and a manager at the E.ON subsidiary Westenergie. Minister Reiche presents herself as a supporter of hydrogen but primarily relies on natural gas. She intends to issue tenders for additional gas-fired power plants with a capacity of 10 gigawatts, which are to be connected to the grid by 2031, corresponding to approximately 25 new power plants. 20 billion euros are earmarked for these new gas-fired power plants.

    Reiche would prefer to postpone Germany's climate neutrality target from 2045 to 2050 anyway.

    The main culprits behind human-induced climate destruction are not those who suffer the most, those who pay with their health and their lives. The people of the Global South are already paying the highest price. The countries of the Global North, and soon China among others, are deciding the fate of everyone. China, as a communist, racist, and patriarchal dictatorship, can use "rare earth elements" to blackmail countries that don't toe the line, gradually weaving countries, cultures, and political systems into the cocoon of this new dictatorial world power. Over 85% of the world's refined "rare earth elements" come from China. And it is the rich who are the problem. It is the super-rich who are setting the world ablaze. In the East, in the West, in the South, and in the North. Sixty percent of the super-rich's investments worldwide go into gas and oil. And around 300 super-rich countries emit more CO₂ than the 110 poorest countries in the world. These criminals know it. They don't care. Their greed for even more wealth and power sets the standard by which everyone else follows
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Science of Superforecasting - Global Warming Rise: we blew past 1.5C, how about 2C, 2.5C, to 4C?
    https://youtu.be/JxE6XFKOaRM?si=mBQ30943n5zCpOgS


    We already passed 1.5C - happened, in last few years

    When do we pass 2.0C. Group spread is 2034 to 2039 with mean of 2037. Beckwith guess 2033.

    How about 2.5C. Group spread is 2044 to 2052 with mean of 2048. Beckwith guess is 2041.

    OK, what about passing 3.0C. Group spread is 2054 to 2065 with mean of 2060. Beckwith superforecast is 2050.

    Anybody for 3.5C. Group spread is 2065 to 2077 with mean of 2072. Beckwith guess is 2058.

    Finally, when will we cross 4.0C. Group spread is 2075 to 2090 with mean of 2084. Beckwith guess is 2066.

    Of course, a supervolcano (natural or induced:) will negate all this since humanity likes to eat food...
    SCHWEPZ
    SCHWEPZ --- ---
    Když se řekne globální oteplování, většina z nás si automaticky představí vysoké teploty, sucho a rychlé vypařování. Čínská studie ukazuje, že realita může být složitější. Vědci zjistili, že navzdory rostoucím teplotám mořské hladiny se globální odpařování oceánů v posledním desetiletí mírně snížilo.

    Studie publikovaná v prestižním vědeckém časopise Geophysical Research Letters zpochybňuje dosavadní představy o tom, jak oceány reagují na oteplující se planetu. Výzkumný tým z Institutu geografických věd a výzkumu přírodních zdrojů Čínské akademie věd analyzoval dlouhodobá satelitní data a narazil na trend, který je přinejmenším překvapil.

    Oceány nejsou jen obrovskými zásobárnami vody – hrají klíčovou roli v hydrologickém cyklu Země a zajišťují více než 85 procent veškeré vodní páry v atmosféře. Přičemž právě odpařování z mořské hladiny ovlivňuje tvorbu mraků, srážky i rozložení klimatu na celé planetě.

    Po desetiletí tak platilo jednoduché pravidlo: čím teplejší moře, tím více vody se odpařuje. Jenže pozorování od počátku 21. století ukázala, že růst množství vodní páry v atmosféře se začal zpomalovat. A to vědce přimělo položit si zásadní otázku – reagují oceány na oteplování opravdu tak, jak jsme si mysleli?


    Scientists Discover Unexpected Decline in Global Ocean Evaporation Amid Rising Sea Temperatures----Chinese Academy of Sciences
    https://english.cas.cn/newsroom/research_news/earth/202502/t20250220_902241.shtml

    Ohledně oteplování a oceánu jsme se pletli? Vědci našli překvapivý klimatický paradox – Aktuálně.cz
    https://magazin.aktualne.cz/ohledne-oteplovani-a-oceanu-jsme-se-pletli-vedci-nasli-prekvapivy-klimaticky-paradox/r~aaa29a3c7c6654b443acc10b4fe9989e/
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    James Hansen Year-End Blog: Global Average Temperatures We Expect Over Next Couple Years
    https://youtu.be/zZTBSixUj90?si=acLpVMNNGOreJmft
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    ‘Borrowed time’: crop pests and food losses supercharged by climate crisis | Food security | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2025/dec/20/crop-pests-food-losses-climate-crisis

    The destruction of food supplies by crop pests is being supercharged by the climate crisis, with losses expected to surge, an analysis has concluded.

    Researchers said the world was lucky to have so far avoided a major shock and was living on borrowed time, with action needed to diversify crops and boost natural predators of pests.

    The key global crops, wheat, rice and maize, are expected to see the losses to pests increase by about 46%, 19% and 31% respectively when global heating reaches 2C, the scientists said.

    Global heating is helping insects such as aphids, planthoppers, stem borers, caterpillars and locusts thrive. Greater warmth enables pests to develop faster, produce more generations each year and attack crops for longer as winters shorten. Rising temperatures are also helping pests invade places further from the equator and on higher ground that were previously too cold.

    As a result, the climate-driven flourishing of pests will be worst in temperate places, such as Europe and the US, the researchers said. Temperatures may have already hit a limit for some insects in the tropics, they said, although the cutting of croplands into tropical forests is supporting more pests.
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    Ocean microplastics mess up carbon cycle understanding - Futurity
    https://www.futurity.org/ocean-microplastics-carbon-cycle-climate-change-3309772/

    A new study shows that microplastics in oceans can distort scientists’ understanding of the carbon cycle.

    The carbon cycle in our oceans is critical to the balance of life in ocean waters and for reducing carbon in the atmosphere, a significant process to curbing climate change or global warming.

    The new study shows that when microplastics are accidentally collected and measured with natural ocean organic particles, the carbon released by plastics during combustion appears as if it came from natural organic matter, which distorts scientists’ understanding of the ocean’s carbon cycle.
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    Tak snad to dotahnou do vyroby...

    Bioinspired building material reduces emissions by over 720 lbs
    https://interestingengineering.com/innovation/wpi-carbon-negative-building-material-esm

    Concrete is the most widely used construction material on the planet, and its production accounts for nearly 8% of global CO2 emissions,” he said. He added that the new method “doesn’t just reduce emissions—it actually captures carbon.”

    According to the researchers, producing a single cubic meter of ESM sequesters more than 6 kilograms of CO2.

    In contrast, the same amount of conventional concrete emits around 330 kilograms.

    Beyond emissions, ESM’s ability to cure quickly, adjust in strength, and be recycled makes it a candidate for applications such as wall panels, roof decks, and modular building parts.
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Nanoplastics in the Brain: Humanity’s Ticking Time Bomb
    https://youtu.be/bVAZUm68OY8?si=slyrV50QAKof1dNQ


    Nanoplastics in the Brain: Humanity’s Ticking Time Bomb

    Autopsies on human brains shows an average of a plastic fork or spoon by weight (7 grams) in the brain. That means the brain is only 99.5% brain and 0.5% plastic.

    The form of plastic in the brain is nanoplastics, which are very tiny shards of plastic.

    Brains of demented people were two or more forks.

    I chat about global plastic production, lack of plastic recycling, and how plastic breaks down in the environment, and how climate change accelerates the breakdown.

    I also consider how long it will take for 50% of the population to be demented… not too long…
    CHOSIE
    CHOSIE --- ---
    Southern Ocean Heat Burp in a Cooling World

    The ocean accumulates carbon and heat under anthropogenic CO2 emissions and global warming. Little is known about how the ocean will release heat and carbon under potential future “net-negative CO2 emissions.”

    In a net-negative emission scenario more CO2 is extracted from the atmosphere than emitted, and one expects global cooling. We use an Earth system model which is of intermediate complexity in that its ocean is comparatively coarsely resolved and its atmosphere comparatively simple, with the advantage that it can be used for multi-centennial scale climate simulations. We expose the model to an idealized climate change scenario, with first increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration, followed by decreasing atmospheric CO2 that implies sustained net-negative CO2 emissions.

    We find, after several centuries of global cooling under negative CO2 emissions, global atmospheric warming that is unrelated to CO2 emissions and is caused by ocean heat release.

    The rate of warming is comparable to average historical anthropogenic warming rates and lasts for more than a century. The ocean heat loss originates from the deep Southern Ocean.
    The average warming rate over the decades until the peak warm anomaly is reached is comparable to the average rate of observed global warming since the 19th century, and the maximum decadal warming with 0.14C per decade is analogous to historical warming over the past five decades (Allen et al., 2018).
    This anomalous warm period is “non-linear” as compared to the gradually quasi-linearly decreasing temperature trend prior to the warm period.

    It lasts for about 200 years, and happens despite linear forcing of continuously decreasing atmospheric pCO2, and under a regime of persistent net-negative CO2-emissions.
    https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2025AV001700
    PER2
    PER2 --- ---
    SHEFIK: after all, why not?

    Switzerland’s glaciers have faced “enormous” melting this year with a 3% drop in total volume — the fourth-largest annual drop on record — due to the effects of global warming.

    The shrinkage this year means that ice mass in Switzerland — home to the most glaciers in Europe — has declined by one-quarter over the last decade.

    Switzerland is home to nearly 1,400 glaciers, the most of any country in Europe, and the ice mass and its gradual melting have implications for hydropower, tourism, farming and water resources in many European countries.

    More than 1,000 small glaciers in Switzerland have already disappeared.
    IOM_NUKSO
    IOM_NUKSO --- ---
    Toto na mne nepusobi moc optimisticky

    The data for this visualization comes from the IEA World Energy Outlook 2025. It outlines global energy supply in exajoules (EJ) from 2024 through forecasts for 2035 and 2050.

    CHOSIE
    CHOSIE --- ---
    CHOSIE: Tady je vidět ta prodleva, také to nepočítá s tím, že by průmyslová aktivita úplně zmizela, jinak další může být i využití půdy a její eroze, další zdroj zneštění, který lze udržovat i bez průmyslové civilizace. Příkladem ještě dodám plasty, ~50% všech plastů bylo vyrobeno za posledních 30 let, bude trvat hodně dlouho než všechny degradují natolik, že je bude možné považovat za znečištění.

    A tady je popis a grafy k modelaci W3 scénář 1:
    Scenario 1: A Reference Point
    The world society proceeds in a traditional manner without any major deviation from the policies pur-
    sued during most of the twentieth century. Population and production increase until growth is halted by
    increasingly inaccessible nonrenewable resources. Ever more investment is required to maintain resource
    flows. Finally, lack of investment funds in the other sectors of the economy leads to declining output of
    both industrial goods and services. As they fall, food and health services are reduced, decreasing life
    expectancy and raising average death rates.

    Scenario 1, show the behavior of World3 when it is run “as is,” with numbers we consider a “realistic” description of the situation as it appeared on average during the latter part of the twentieth century, with no unusual technical or policy assumptions. In 1972 we called it the “standard run.” We did not consider it to be the most probable future, and we certainly didn’t present it as a prediction. It was just a place to start, a base for comparison.

    In Scenario 1 the society proceeds along a very traditional path as long as possible without major policy change. It traces the broad outline of history as we know it throughout the twentieth century. The output of food, industrial goods, and social services increases in response to obvious needs and subject to the availability of capital. There is no extraordinary effort,beyond what makes immediate economic sense, to abate pollution, conserve resources, or protect the land.

    The population in Scenario 1 rises from 1.6 billion in the simulated year 1900 to 6 billion in the year 2000 and more than 7 billion by 2030. Total industrial output expands by a factor of almost 30 between 1900 and 2000 and then by 10 percent more by 2020.

    Then suddenly, a few decades into the twenty-first century, the growth
    of the economy stops and reverses rather abruptly. This discontinuation of past growth trends is principally caused by rapidly increasing costs of non-renewable resources.

    In the simulated year 2000, the nonrenewable resources remaining in the ground would have lasted 60 years at the year-2000 consumption rate. No serious resource limits are then in evidence. But by 2020 the remaining resources constitute only a 30-year supply

    During those two decades in Scenario 1, the growing population and
    industrial plant use nearly the same amount of nonrenewable resources as the global economy used in the entire century before!

    This scenario portrays a “nonrenewable resource crisis.” It is not a prediction. It is not meant to forecast precise values of any of the model variables, nor the exact timing of events. We do not believe it represents the most likely “real world” outcome.

    The strongest statement we can make about Scenario 1 is that it portrays the likely general behavior mode of the system, if the policies that influence economic growth and population growth in the future are similar to those that dominated the last part of the twentieth century, if technologies and values continue to evolve in a manner representative of that era, and if the uncertain numbers in the model are roughly correct.
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    nie panimaju

    "must sharply fall"

    Screenshot-20251126-221803-Facebook

    the world has moved from a safe operating space into zones of rising and high risk between 1997, 2015 and 2025. A business-as-usual path would further degrade ecosystems and strain societies. In contrast, effective overshoot management could still put the world on track for net-zero by mid-century and net-negative emissions by century’s end



    Commentary: rising planetary risks after missed decade of action — Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
    https://www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/latest-news/commentary-scientists-outline-rising-planetary-risks-after-missed-decade-of-action

    In the commentary published in One Earth, scientists of The Earth League alliance conclude that “too little was done too late” in the last decade, from 2015 to 2025: global warming is on track to exceed 1.5°C in the coming years, with seven of nine planetary boundaries already breached. They also note that progress towards global sustainability goals is lagging: only 15 percent of the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) targets are currently on track for 2030.
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    China doesn’t want to lead alone on climate policies, senior adviser warns | Cop30 | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/nov/19/china-doesnt-want-to-take-lead-on-climate-policies-alone-senior-adviser-warns

    In an exclusive interview, Wang said theChinese president, Xi Jinping, was committed to the energy transition for the long haul despite resistance from some industrial sectors. He explained that China’s priority in Belém was to help the Brazilian presidency achieve a successful climate conference, and to show the benefits of multilateral decision-making. On Tuesday, the first draft of a possible agreement was published at the Cop30 summit, reviving the hotly contested plan to transition away from fossil fuels.

    China is the planet’s biggest emitter of carbon dioxide from burning of coal, oil and gas, but it is now also a world leader in the production, installation and export of wind turbines, solar panels and electric cars.

    He said China wanted to “speed up and scale up its efforts to provide more global public goods” despite serious geopolitical and economic tensions and unilateral barriers to trade, including tariffs. The country’s emissions have been flat or falling for 18 months.

    He estimated China’s per capita power consumption would continue to grow from 7,000 kilowatt hours in 2024 to “well over 10,000, maybe 12,000” – but there would be a steady move away from fossil fuels to wind and solar, as well as green hydrogen, green ammonia and electric vehicles. Along with a new power grid system, he said the country was in the midst of a “comprehensive green transition of social economic development”.

    As in many countries, Wang suggested there was some resistance to change, but the president had sent a clear signal about the direction of travel. “Even in China, we have a lot of industrial conflict ... but the central government, including President Xi, is very clear to us that we must, in the next five years’ time, speed up the new power system.”

    In the absence of the US, China’s role is even more crucial than usual to the success or failure of Cop30, where the Brazilian president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, has urged his negotiators to lay the foundations for an exit ramp out of the fossil fuel era.
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    shocking not shocking

    Former U.S. VP Al Gore Reveals Shocking Data on Global Warming and Extreme Climate Events | AC1N
    https://youtu.be/N6RYnMBwtUY?si=rFkLkyBlqcLUjrE_
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    GLOBAL EMISSIONS FALLING 2025

    With China's emissions falling, global emissions also do.
    2025 was the absolute limit for 2°C as well as 1.5°C from the IPCC 6th Assessment. However, the projected rate of decline is nowhere near 1.5°C and 2°C rates.

    FB-IMG-1762931533802

    https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2025
    SCHWEPZ
    SCHWEPZ --- ---
    tady pokrývají celý sumit: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/cop30


    Removing CO2 from atmosphere vital to avoid catastrophic tipping points, leading scientist says | Cop30 | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/nov/11/leading-scientist-says


    10bn tonnes must be captured from the air every year to limit global heating to 1.7C, says Johan Rockström
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    COPERNICUS WARNS 1.5°C & 'ACCELERATING PACE OF CLIMATE CHANGE'

    October was 3rd warmest at 1.55°C, first 1.5C month since April

    Average for 2023–2025 is likely to exceed 1.5°C, "the first time for a three-year period”

    "Highlights accelerating pace of climate change""

    No question of global warming acceleration now

    Surface air temperature for October 2025 | Copernicus
    https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-october-2025
    JINDRICH
    JINDRICH --- ---
    #odemceno
    USA parizske zavazky sabotuji, evropa preslapuje a cina co2 politiku zachranuje levnou produkci, ktera snizuje emise v rozvojovych zemich...

    A Flood of Green Tech From China Is Upending Global Climate Politics
    https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/10/climate/cop30-belem-climate-energy-technology-china.html?unlocked_article_code=1.0E8.sjQJ.kEnuEjoTDebM&smid=nytcore-android-share
    IOM_NUKSO
    IOM_NUKSO --- ---
    The Paris Climate Accord, while facing political slowdowns in parts of the Global North, remains relevant due to practical momentum elsewhere. As high-income nations delay their net-zero timelines, the production side of the energy transition continues.

    China’s role in that process is increasingly functional rather than diplomatic. The cost reductions driven by its supply chain are allowing for real emissions reductions in places where policy has stalled.

    Renewable adoption is no longer dependent on long-term funding commitments. It is being supported by falling prices and market demand.

    China’s Clean Energy Surge Reshapes Global Access
    https://www.globalbrandsmagazine.com/china-renewable-energy-global-shift/
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