Amoc collapse could change Europe’s climate 10x faster than expected. We aren’t ready | Penny Holliday, Femke de Jong and Sjoerd Groeskamp | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/jun/14/amoc-collapse-europe-climate

the Trump administration has proposed budget cuts to Nasa, Noaa and NSF – agencies that together provide about 50% of the total Amoc monitoring budget. Last week the US announced the descoping of the Ocean Observing Initiative which was part of a programme observing the Amoc.

The recently launched European OceanEye initiative has allocated €50m for ocean observations and is a great incentive to continue Amoc observations. However, before OceanEye is up and running, the research vessels that service the present-day observing systems will already have to be financed, planned and packed.

In short: monitoring, understanding and forecasting the Amoc is at risk. Without sustained Amoc observations, we cannot know what lies ahead. An Amoc collapse may be imminent, a century away, or, if we act boldly to limit climate change, it might be averted altogether.

For too long, understanding and monitoring the Amoc was viewed as an academic pursuit. Instead, it should now be treated as what it truly is: an urgent, global priority. There is an acute and essential need to construct an alternative international funding strategy to secure long-term Amoc monitoring that realises a robust, continuous and open-access Amoc monitoring program to provide the knowledge to build a safer and more resilient world.

‘Mega-consumers’ of food and energy cost environment $5.7tn a year, study finds | Environment | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/jun/18/mega-consumers-food-energy-damage-cost-environment

Environmental damages of the top ten percent consumers exceed global climate and biodiversity funding gaps | Communications Sustainability
https://www.nature.com/articles/s44458-026-00079-x

The environmental damage bill racked up by the highest-consuming 10% of the world’s population has reached up to $5.7tn a year – larger than the economy of every country except the US and China, a study has found.

Mega-consumers in this group are concentrated in the global north, accounting for more than half the population of the US and 40-45% of people in the EU.

The damage tally, which one researcher described as “bonkers”, also exceeds global funding gaps for tackling the climate and biodiversity crises, highlighting how economic priorities remain skewed towards running down the Earth’s life-support systems.

The most destructive forms of consumption were linked to two main areas: food – particularly red meat, a primary driver of deforestation – and energy, including flights and heating and cooling homes, which typically rely on burning of fossil fuels, such as gas, oil and coal.

The $5.7tn figure, published in a paper by researchers at University of Oxford and University of Leiden, was calculated by using estimates of the monetary impacts of climate disruption, biodiversity loss, nutrient pollution and freshwater use.

TADEAS:

A landmark May 2026 study in Nature Climate Change (Duke/Fudan Universities) found that airborne microplastics are net warming agents — colored micro- and nanoplastics suspended in the atmosphere contribute to warming at a level equal to roughly 16% of that caused by black carbon (soot) (Gizmodo) . Dark or pigmented particles absorb up to 74.8 times more solar radiation than pristine clear plastic, and in regions like the North Pacific Garbage Patch, local warming from plastic rivals or exceeds that from soot. (Karmactive) Separately, microplastics also act as ice-nucleation seeds in clouds, triggering freezing at warmer-than-normal temperatures and potentially altering precipitation patterns and cloud cover globally. (psu) On glaciers, dark particles reduce surface reflectivity and accelerate melt. Storms amplify the problem: during typhoons, researchers recorded massive deposition events that redistribute ocean plastics onto land

• Nature Climate Change (May 4, 2026) — Original paper: Atmospheric warming contributions from airborne microplastics and nanoplastics
• Scientific American — Airborne microplastics could be making climate change worse
• Gizmodo — Scientists identify another contributor to global warming
• Penn State — Microplastics impact cloud formation, likely affecting weather and climate
• C&EN — Airborne microplastics could be making the world warmer
• Business Standard — Microplastics found to trap heat, play role in global climate change
• Karmactive — Airborne microplastics carry 16.2% of black carbon's warming power

India’s population will still continue to grow from its current tally of 1.45bn: it takes time for fewer births to translate into fewer people overall. But the number of births is already down by a fifth from its peak in 2001. In Tamil Nadu 1,200 schools were closed last year for a lack of pupils to fill their classrooms. Those who do attend increasingly show up without any siblings. The government frets that India will get old before it gets rich—that the country is on a similar path to China, where the population has already peaked and is starting to fall. Some politicians are offering cash to encourage Indians to procreate. India’s demographic transition is the most striking example of a global trend. For it is no longer just wealthy places where families have few, or no, kids. Over two-thirds of all countries are now below the replacement rate. Middle-income ones like Brazil, Iran, Thailand and Turkey have been well below it for years. Poorer countries are steadily joining their ranks. Sri Lanka has a TFR of just 1.3; Tunisia’s is 1.6. Morocco has fallen below replacement rate. Nairobi, the capital of Kenya, may be close to that point. In many places birth rates are plunging despite marriage remaining near-universal and even though few women have formal jobs.

https://www.economist.com/leaders/2026/06/04/indias-surprise-baby-bust-is-a-warning-to-the-world

pardon, nemám bez paywallu

make planet invisible again!

idiokrati u kormidla, otevírám další plechovku gatorade, bojuju tím proti suchu v krku


The Trump administration is... - Alt National Park Service
https://www.facebook.com/share/1EQdmfmHpR/

The Trump administration is dismantling a $368 million deep-ocean monitoring network 900+ sensors tracking climate currents, fishery health, ocean carbon absorption, and coastal flooding along the East Coast. Ships go out in June to start pulling it up. Congress funded it twice after Trump tried to cut it 80%. NSF shut it down anyway. The Irminger Sea station alone was part of an international effort to monitor the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation the global current system whose collapse would mean permanent, severe weather disruption across the Northern Hemisphere.

TADEAS:

R Hallam
https://www.facebook.com/share/1Dv9ebRvP4/

Okay, let's be honest - let's guess how many supposedly upright anti racist Guardian readers read Prof Bill McGuire's description of UK life in the summer of 2052 - 40C heat, water and food shortages, economic depression - and think "Oh, doesn't sound so bad - at least we won't be starving to death like all those billions of brown and black people in the global south."

Okay, let's not be honest. I take it all back. Sorry.

And obviously it would be beyond impolite to talk about 2070.

https://edition.cnn.com/2026/05/30/climate/hunga-tonga-volcano-eruption-methane

A volcano that erupted in the South Pacific in 2022 destroyed some of its own methane emissions, and scientists now think the chemistry behind it could become a new tool against one of the most potent planet-heating gases.

The Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai eruption on 15 January 2022 was one of the most violent of modern times, hundreds of times more powerful than the Hiroshima bomb, with a sonic boom that circled the planet twice. New research published in Nature Communications found that it also cleaned up after itself.

Studying satellite data, scientists spotted a huge cloud of formaldehyde, a gas that forms when methane is broken down. "We found a huge cloud of formaldehyde that should normally not be there", said study author Maarten van Herpen. They tracked it for 10 days, and since formaldehyde lasts only a few hours, the methane destruction must have continued for over a week.

The eruption blasted enough salty water vapour into the stratosphere to fill around 58,000 Olympic-size swimming pools. Sunlight hitting that salty mixture appears to have produced chlorine, which reacted with methane and broke it down, the same process previously observed when Saharan dust blows over the Atlantic. The team estimates the eruption produced around 330,000 tons of methane, of which roughly 900 tons were destroyed each day.

Why it matters: methane is about 80 times more effective at trapping heat than carbon dioxide over 20 years and accounts for roughly a third of global warming. Because it is short-lived, cutting it could slow warming relatively quickly. The findings raise the possibility of injecting iron-based particles into the air over the ocean to mimic the effect.

Independent scientists are cautious. Pete Edwards of the University of York called the results interesting but "very difficult" to confirm, warning of "potential unintended consequences on climate, air pollution and ecosystem health". Emily Dowd of the University of Leeds said the chemistry still needs thorough testing in atmospheric models before anyone counts on it.

make future great again

Tony Blair tells Starmer and rivals: abandon net zero and move closer to Trump | Labour | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/may/26/tony-blair-labour-abandon-net-zero-support-donald-trump

Blair argued for the government to crack down on welfare spending, abandon restrictions on oil and gas and smooth relations with Donald Trump.

The Labour Party Is Playing With Fire Over Its Future and the Future of the Country
https://institute.global/insights/politics-and-governance/the-labour-party-is-playing-with-fire-over-its-future-and-the-future-of-the-country

Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are now approaching 32 degrees C (90 degrees F) in the open ocean of the South China Sea, the Arabian Sea, off the Mexico Pacific coast - and in the Caribbean around Cuba’s Isle of Youth although that last one is not in the open ocean. It’s highly likely readings in these locations will exceed 32 degrees C if not 33 degrees C by late summer. There has never been an SST of 33 C recorded anywhere in the world in the open ocean. 2026 will likely set a record for highest global average SST and highest global average 2 m height air temperature ever recorded and likely the highest in at least 120,000 years. 2027 could be even warmer.

The accelerating warming of the uppermost ocean is causing atmospheric warming to accelerate.

Don’t fuck with a water planet. It’s a steam engine. Especially the only planet in the universe known to harbor life.

John Scheve - Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are now...
https://www.facebook.com/share/p/18ng2FHN6S/

“What the method does show is that no city could survive more than a few days in isolation; that many whole countries are running significant eco-deficits; and that the aggregate, mostly urban, human EF exceeds available global biocapacity by at least 78%. This means that humanity has vastly overshot the long-term carrying capacity of Earth; the growth and maintenance of the human enterprise today is being ‘financed’ by depleting stocks of essential bioresources (not to mention non-renewables) needed tomorrow. We are rapidly draining Earth’s battery and there are no near-by magical charging stations.”

Carrying capacity: The vinegar in economists’ wine
https://reeswilliame.substack.com/p/carrying-capacity-the-vinegar-in

J Pecho
https://www.facebook.com/share/1LNpw9aWiZ/

Predstavte si 540 miliónov rokov klímy strednej Európy v jednej obrazovej sérii — od najstarších prvohôr až po to, ako môže naša krajina vyzerať o pár generácií.

Začneme v plytkom tropickom mori s trilobitmi (pred 520 mil. rokov). Pokračujeme do hustého uhoľného pralesa pri rovníku s 35-metrovými šupinatými stromami a vážkami s rozpätím krídel 70 cm (pred 310 mil. rokov). Stáda "raných" dinosaurov v polopúšti superkontinentu Pangea (pred 220 mil. rokov). Pravták Archaeopteryx krúžiaci nad tropickou bavorskou lagúnou (pred 150 mil. rokov).

V eocéne — pred 48 miliónmi rokov — bolo Nemecko ako Indonézia: palmy, krokodíly, prví primáti v korunách stromov. Bolo o 12 °C teplejšie ako dnes.

Potom dlhé ochladzovanie. Posledná doba ľadová pred 21 000 rokmi: mamutia step naprieč strednou Európou, stáda sobov a vlnatých nosorožcov, na fronte alpského ľadovca naši priami predkovia v kožiach. Pred 125 000 rokmi naopak medziľadová doba — teplejšie ako dnes, v Temži sa kúpali hrochy.

Po roztopení ľadovcov prví roľníci s drevenými dlhými domami ako ostrovy v mori hlbokých lesov. Stredoveké teplé obdobie okolo roku 1100 — anglické vinice, kvitnúce kláštory. Malá doba ľadová v 17. storočí — zamrznuté rieky, trhy priamo "na ľade".

A potom budúcnosť: +2 °C, +4 °C, +10 °C.

Najsilnejšia myšlienka? Posledný obraz série — Zem o 10 °C teplejšia okolo roku 2300 — stredná Európy vyzerá takmer identicky ako tá eocénna džungľa pred 48 miliónmi rokov. Palmy, tie isté krokodíly v rieke. More o 60 metrov vyššie. Panónska kotlina pod morom. A civilizácia? It´s gone (I suppose).

Paleoklimatológia nie je len o minulosti. Je to atlas našej budúcnosti — mapa, ktorú už raz Zem nakreslila. Stačí ju vedieť čítať.
---------------------------------------
Obr. generované AI (Claude, gpt, ...)

Zdroje, z ktorých vychádza vizualizačná séria klímy strednej Európy:

Prvohory–druhohory
• Inglis G.N. et al. (2020). Global mean surface temperature and climate sensitivity of the early Eocene Climatic Optimum, PETM, and latest Paleocene. Climate of the Past 16, 1953. (doi:10.5194/cp-16-1953-2020)
• Burke K.D. et al. (2018). Pliocene and Eocene provide best analogs for near-future climates. PNAS 115, 13288. (doi:10.1073/pnas.1809600115)
• Scotese C.R. (PALEOMAP Project) — paleogeografické rekonštrukcie kontinentov pre celé fanerozoikum

Pleistocén a doba ľadová
• Petit J.R. et al. (1999). Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok ice core. Nature 399, 429.
• Lüthi D. et al. (2008). High-resolution carbon dioxide concentration record 650,000–800,000 years before present. Nature 453, 379.
• Annan J.D., Hargreaves J.C. (2013). A new global reconstruction of temperature changes at the Last Glacial Maximum. Climate of the Past 9, 367. (doi:10.5194/cp-9-367-2013)
• Kindler P. et al. (2014). Temperature reconstruction from 10 to 120 kyr b2k from the NGRIP ice core. Climate of the Past 10, 887. (doi:10.5194/cp-10-887-2014)
• Clark P.U. et al. (2012). Global climate evolution during the last deglaciation. PNAS 109, E1134.
• Lambert F. et al. (2008). Dust-climate couplings over the past 800,000 years from the EPICA Dome C ice core. Nature 452, 616.
• Batchelor C.L. et al. (2019). The configuration of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets through the Quaternary. Nature Communications 10, 3713.
• Leger T.P.M. et al. (2026). First Alps-wide reconstruction of LGM glacial sediment transport. Earth Surface Dynamics 14, 361. (doi:10.5194/esurf-14-361-2026) — GPU-modelovanie alpského ľadu pre vizualizáciu LGM.

Súčasná klíma a budúce scenáre
• IPCC AR6 WG1 (2021). Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Cambridge University Press. (ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1)
• Zemp M. et al. (2015). Historically unprecedented global glacier decline in the early 21st century. Journal of Glaciology 61, 745.
• EURO-CORDEX projekt — regionálne klimatické projekcie pre Európu (euro-cordex.net)
• CH2018 — Swiss Climate Change Scenarios — adaptačné scenáre pre Alpy

Referenčné monografie
• Gornitz V. (ed.) (2009). Encyclopedia of Paleoclimatology and Ancient Environments. Springer.
• Ruddiman W.F. (2014). Earth's Climate: Past and Future (3rd ed.). W.H. Freeman.
• Anderson D.E., Goudie A.S., Parker A.G. (2013). Global Environments through the Quaternary. Oxford University Press.
• Burroughs W.J. (2005). Climate Change in Prehistory: The End of the Reign of Chaos. Cambridge UP.

Globálna teplota a CO₂
• Westerhold T. et al. (2020). An astronomically dated record of Earth's climate and its predictability over the last 66 million years. Science 369, 1383. (doi:10.1126/science.aba6853)
• Foster G.L., Royer D.L., Lunt D.J. (2017). Future climate forcing potentially without precedent in the last 420 million years. Nature Communications 8, 14845. (doi:10.1038/ncomms14845)
• Hansen J. et al. (2013). Climate sensitivity, sea level and atmospheric carbon dioxide. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 371, 20120294. (doi:10.1098/rsta.2012.0294)

“The study suggests that warming is proceeding 5,000 times faster than rice has ever evolved.

This means rice may be reaching its "thermal limit," the point at which it can't easily adapt to rising temperatures. Although people can breed more heat-resistant strains or move rice cultivation into new regions, future warming is likely to cause serious disruption for the billion people who depend on rice cultivation for their livelihoods, said study first author Nicolas Gauthier, an anthropologist and geographer at the Florida Museum of Natural History.”

https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/global-warming-is-accelerating-5-000-times-faster-than-rice-can-evolve

klimatizační krize

UK ‘built for climate that no longer exists’ and needs urgent changes to survive global heating, report warns | Environment | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/may/20/uk-built-for-climate-that-no-longer-exists-and-needs-urgent-changes-to-survive-global-heating-report-warns

British homes will need air conditioning to survive predicted levels of global heating, the government’s climate advisers have warned in a report, as measures such as drawing curtains, opening windows and growing trees for shade are not likely to be enough.

Air conditioning should be installed in all care homes and hospitals within the next 10 years, and in all schools within 25 years, according to the Climate Change Committee (CCC), which published a major report on adapting to the impacts of global heating on Wednesday.

"For far too long Climate Activism has been used by Dumocrats to scare Americans, push horrible Energy Polices, and fund BILLIONS into their bogus research programs," he continued. "Unlike the Dumocrats, who use Climate Alarmism nonsense to push their GREEN NEW SCAM, my Administration will always be based on TRUTH, SCIENCE, and FACT!"

Trump rips Democrats after UN climate committee drops extreme projections | Fox News
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-celebrates-un-climate-committee-moves-away-extreme-global-warming-scenario