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    TUHOKlimaticka zmena / Destroying the Future Is the Most Cost-Effective
    "Given the sheer enormity of climate change, it’s okay to be depressed, to grieve. But please, don’t stay there too long. Join me in pure, unadulterated, righteous anger."

    "I don’t want your hope. I don’t want you to be hopeful. ... I want you to act. Once you start to act, the hope is everywhere."

    "Our best scientists tell us insistently that a calamity is unfolding, that the life-support systems of the Earth are being damaged in ways that threaten our survival. Yet in the face of these facts we carry on as usual."

    Rostouci hladiny oceanu, zmena atmosferickeho proudeni, zmeny v distribuci srazek a sucha. Zmeny karbonoveho, fosforoveho a dusikoveho cyklu, okyselovani oceanu. Jake jsou bezpecnostni rizika a jake potencialni klady dramatickych zmen fungovani zemskeho systemu?
    Ale take jak funguji masove dezinformacni kampane ropneho prumyslu a boj o verejne mineni na prahu noveho klimatickeho rezimu post-holocenu.

    rozbalit záhlaví
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    klimatizační krize

    Heat Deaths in a ‘Cold’ Country Are a Warning to the Rest of Europe
    https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/15/world/europe/belgium-heat-wave-deaths.html

    A June heat wave in Belgium and neighboring countries exposed a lethal lack of readiness. That’s a risk as another wave hits Europe.

    ...

    More deaths were recorded in Wallonia, Belgium, at the peak of June’s heat wave than on any day of the Covid-19 pandemic:

    ❝ Seniors died in stifling apartments. Emergency calls were left on hold. Doctors treated an onslaught of people sick from heat, sometimes in wards without air-conditioning.

    These are scenes that played out in Belgium, one of the world’s wealthiest nations, on a recent summer weekend. They are also a warning to Europe.

    Europe is the fastest-warming continent, yet large parts remain ill prepared. As heat waves scorch its nations this summer, they are killing thousands in countries with strong health systems. In just one week in late June, there were around 16,000 excess deaths, or more people who died than usual, in Europe. Belgium, France and Germany were the worst affected, based on data collected by the European Mortality Monitoring Network.

    Belgium, known for cold and damp, not searing heat, had the highest excess deaths in Europe, making it a case study into what went wrong. In Wallonia, the region that makes up the country’s south, the death rate was 77 percent higher than what would be expected between mid-June and early July. Some hospitals were overrun, with gurneys and patients lining the hallways and medical staff working without breaks in the unrelenting heat.

    “Each crisis is becoming increasingly severe,” said Yves Coppieters, the health minister for Wallonia. “That’s what we’re failing to anticipate.”

    Climate change means that the issue is most likely here to stay. Across Europe, “we think the summers are hot now,” said Joan Ballester Claramunt, a research professor at the Barcelona Institute for Global Health who focuses on climate change and health. “The future that we’re seeing, it could be much worse.”

    Belgium is a stark example of why heat waves can become deadly in countries more accustomed to cool weather. Emergency systems in some cases buckled under the pressure, and structural challenges left the most vulnerable to suffer.

    The federal health ministry defended elements of the response and noted that hospital capacity had been scaled up during the crisis, but it acknowledged that some change was needed. “I believe we must indeed learn lessons quickly,” Frank Vandenbroucke, the Belgian minister of social affairs and public health, told lawmakers early last month.

    During the late June wave, MontLégia hospital, in the Belgian city of Liège, experienced a rush of patients so intense that in the emergency room healthier people were temporarily lined up in hallways so that those past the point of saving could have privacy while they died.

    Dr. Arnaud Detroz, who was working that weekend, said his team was confronted with overheating cases that they had seen mostly in textbooks. “In our countries, at our latitudes, these cases are relatively rare,” he said.

    ‘Very Crushing’

    Belgium is not accustomed to taking heat so seriously.

    At the start of the June heat wave, Theo Francken, the defense minister, posted an image on Instagram of himself smiling in the sun with the caption, “It’s warm for two days and we’re all going to die again apparently.” He criticized the press.

    “Enjoy the beautiful weather,” he added. “And LIVE!”

    The weather quickly turned into a matter of life or death.

    Temperatures shot up between mid-June and early July, surpassing 100 degrees in parts of Wallonia. The fact that it was early in the summer, before people had a chance to acclimatize, worsened the danger, experts said.

    In the last weekend of June, the Belgian emergency call line was severely overwhelmed, according to medical groups whose representatives signed an open letter protesting the meltdown. In some cases, they said, it took 10 minutes just to get through to an operator. (Bernard Quintin, the Belgian interior minister, told lawmakers that average waits were much shorter and noted that extra staff members were brought in.)

    “If you have to wait for 10 minutes if you have a stroke or heart attack, it’s quite a big problem,” said Dr. Pierre-Louis Deudon, a general practitioner in the Brussels region who signed the letter.

    Emergency rooms were also overrun in parts of Wallonia. During the peak of the heat wave, the number of emergency vehicles arriving at Grand Hôpital de Charleroi, about an hour’s drive west of Liège, rose from an average of 60 to up to 110 per day, said Dr. Laurent Peyskens, deputy head of the emergency department.

    “It was very crushing,” Dr. Peyskens said.

    Half of all emergency rooms in Wallonia lacked air-conditioning, said Dr. Phillippe Devos, director general at Unessa, a federation of Belgian health care providers in Brussels and Wallonia.

    For Belgium, June 27 appears to have been the second-deadliest day of the 21st century, after a day early in the coronavirus crisis. In Wallonia, June 28 was deadlier than the depths of the pandemic in 2020.

    “We should definitely be afraid of a repeat,” said Loïc Gillerot, a climate-health expert at CERAC, an independent Belgian research center that studies climate risk. “The question is: Are we talking about a repeat this summer?”

    Pre-existing Conditions

    In Belgium, as elsewhere, extreme heat hit the vulnerable the hardest.

    Part of the problem, experts said, is that people in Wallonia have lower incomes on average. Poor people are more likely to have pre-existing health conditions, and they often lack access to well-ventilated housing.

    About 85 percent of the more than 900 excess deaths in Wallonia between mid-June and July 1 were of people 65 or older, according to figures from Sciensano, the Belgian health data institute. Low-income seniors who lived alone were particularly at risk, health care professionals said, as their houses or attic apartments became baking death traps.

    “You have people who are isolated, old,” Dr. Devos said. “We saw in the emergency rooms: When people came to the E.R., it was impossible to save them.”

    Wallonia’s housing was part of the challenge. Many residential buildings are aging and were constructed to hold in heat, not to keep it out.

    “It’s a country that is considered cold, culturally,” said Gilles Vanvolsem, managing director of the Belgian Green Building Council. “People think more about heating their house than cooling their house.”

    Nor did behaviors adjust. Belgians, including those with medical conditions and their caregivers, at times appeared unaware of how to handle the heat.

    Dr. Deudon in Brussels noted, for instance, that people on antidepressants and other mental health drugs often are not made aware that they are at higher risk, and so they continued to go to work as normal.

    Dr. Toon Ceyssens, a general practitioner in Flanders, echoed that concern, noting that blood pressure medications also increase the danger.

    During the worst of the heat wave, he was alarmed to see residents at a care institution where he works still taking excursions. “The caretakers and the patients didn’t take the heat wave that seriously,” he said.

    Cold Country No More

    To limit heat risk, countries like Belgium will need to shake their cold-country mentality, experts said.

    Dr. Ceyssens said patients were often hesitant to install air-conditioning, worried that it would make them sick, spread germs and harm the environment.

    Belgians do not “want to be Americans,” with the indoor temperature set to 65 degrees, he said, but he saw a middle ground in which vulnerable people would have access.

    “The mentality on air-conditioning has to change,” he said.

    Others disagree. Even some Belgian officials are wary of relying too much on climate control, concerned that adding it could overwhelm the power grid and leave cities even hotter by pumping hot air into the streets.

    “Air-conditioning can be appropriate in specific situations, particularly for vulnerable people or certain buildings,” said Simon Souris, a spokesman for Wallonia’s housing and energy minister. “However, our long-term strategy is not based on its widespread deployment.”

    Since June, Belgian experts have issued recommendations for more cooling spaces and resources for the vulnerable. Federal authorities are working toward handling emergency calls differently, doctors said. The housing authorities in Wallonia are instituting policies to encourage housing renovation.

    Yet medical workers and public health experts fear that the kind of changes that are needed — like housing and infrastructure improvements — will take more time than Belgium has. At MontLégia, doctors remain concerned that officials will not dedicate enough resources to the ongoing threat of heat.

    Late last month, as emergency doctors recalled losing patients in June, another arrived.

    A 77-year-old woman was wheeled in with heat stroke, her frail chest heaving, her temperature near the point of organ failure. Doctors cut off her blouse and covered her in ice packs.

    They are bracing for more. A supply closet on the emergency-room floor is stocked with fans. Nearby, a refrigerator is filled with cooling IV drips.

    “As emergency-room doctors, we can come to terms with fatality, but it’s not the same when you know it’s due to a systemic failure,” said Dr. Michèle Yerna, who runs the MontLégia emergency unit. That, she added, is “much harder to bear.” ❞
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    liberation

    PROJECTED 2027 GLOBAL WARMING - UNPRECEDENTED
    EXPLOSIVE 1.76°C

    2026 super El Nino on top of accelerating global warming.
    2017 was 0.9°C. This projected (1.76°C) is a 0.86°C temperature increase in 10 years. Far faster than any increase in Earth's history, so Explosive (London Geological Society 2022, global warming fastest in geological record)


    FB IMG 1786742878322
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    2027 could briefly feel like the climate of 2037. A new analysis by climate scientist Zeke Hausfather gives next year a 95% chance of becoming Earth’s hottest on record, with global temperatures around 1.76°C above preindustrial levels — about 0.29°C hotter than the recent warming trend alone would suggest.

    The reason is an exceptionally powerful El Niño arriving on top of long-term greenhouse warming. Hausfather’s middle 50% forecast range is 1.67–1.85°C, equivalent to temporarily jumping roughly 7 to 13 years ahead of the recent temperature trend. “I’m not sure folks have realized just how crazy the second half of 2026 and 2027 will be for global temperatures”, he wrote.

    The Pacific is already behaving extraordinarily: temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific have broken records for 75 consecutive days and could rise more than 4°C above average by December, more than a degree beyond the previous record. Even 2026 has a 48% chance of becoming the warmest year on record; Jim Hansen expects it to do so, before 2027 overtakes it.

    The spike should ease afterwards — Hausfather expects 2028 to be cooler — but the underlying warming continues. His stark description of the longer-term trend: “human emissions are adding a permanent El Niño worth of heat to the climate system each decade”.

    A hotter atmosphere can also carry more water vapour, at roughly 7% more per degree Celsius, meaning 2027 could set a global moisture record as well and increase the conditions associated with extreme rainfall. For a brief period, this El Niño may effectively move the whole planet into temperatures otherwise expected roughly a decade from now.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2026/08/13/record-el-nio-could-fast-forward-planets-temperature-by-decade/
    SCHWEPZ
    SCHWEPZ --- ---
    Copernicus: Highest July global ocean surface temperatures as exceptionally hot, dry conditions fuel wildfires in Europe | Copernicus
    https://climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-highest-july-global-ocean-surface-temperatures-exceptionally-hot-dry-conditions-fuel


    Průměrná teplota hladiny mimopolárního oceánu dosáhla v červenci 20,96 °C, nejvíc pro tento měsíc v historii měření (dosud 20,89 °C z roku 2023), rekordní hodnoty s vlnami mořského veder padaly i podél atlantického pobřeží a v západním Středomoří.
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    The rate at which Earth is absorbing energy is alarming scientists
    https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2026/07/15/the-rate-at-which-earth-is-absorbing-energy-is-alarming-scientists

    https://archive.is/Qs8X9

    Observations from space show that the brightness with which Earth shines is dimming. Seen from afar, the home planet is looking steadily darker





    The Dangers of Climate Dogma – and what we can do about it – Prof Jem Bendell
    https://jembendell.com/2025/09/05/the-dangers-of-climate-dogma-and-what-we-can-do-about-it/

    “We are already in a manmade climate emergency and it is probably not primarily due to CO2 in the atmosphere. That’s because the pace of change in our climate is what makes this an emergency, and that is largely due to a decline in the Earth’s reflectivity, primarily from a loss of cloud cover, which is due to a fall in cloud seeding, with strong evidence that is mainly from a degrading of forest cover and ocean health. Downplaying this ecological dimension to global heating due to a dogmatic allegiance to carbon-only explanations and targets, has become as bad a response as that from people who dismiss it all as a climate scam.”
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Are Declining Oxygen Levels in Global Oceans, Lakes, and Rivers Reaching Unsafe Levels?
    https://youtu.be/ZZUUq_9dJ38?si=kroYQRuVt7kGASwX


    A new peer-reviewed paper that examines "aquatic deoxygenation", namely declining dissolved oxygen levels in our global oceans, and freshwater bodies like lakes and rivers is extremely dire.

    Essentially, the authors argue that "aquatic deoxygenation" is extremely serious and needs to be added to the 9 planetary boundaries as a tenth, and carefully monitored and assessed.

    Feedbacks and interactions between "aquatic deoxygenation" and the existing 9 planetary boundaries are examined in detail.

    In addition to discussing this new research paper, I also chat about the geological history of oxygen on Earth to put oxygen levels into context. At present, our atmosphere is 21% oxygen but there were periods in Earth history when it was zero, and also when it reached 35%.


    https://aslopubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/lno.70434
    TADEAS
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    2026 Global Warming Has Accelerated Significantly - G. Foster, S. Rahmstorf
    https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2025GL118804

    The rise in global temperature has been widely considered to be quite steady for several decades since the 1970s. Recently, however, scientists have started to debate whether global warming has accelerated since then. It is difficult to be sure of that because of natural fluctuations in the warming rate, and so far no statistical significance (meaning 95% certainty) of an acceleration (increase in warming rate) has been demonstrated. In this study we subtract the estimated influence of El Niño events, volcanic eruptions and solar variations from the data, which makes the global temperature curve less variable, and it then shows a statistically significant acceleration of global warming since about the year 2015. Warming proceeding faster is not unexpected by climate models, but it is a cause of concern and shows how insufficient the efforts to slow and eventually stop global warming under the Paris Climate Accord have so far been.
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Halving The Earth's Population To 4 Billion Is The Best Way To Secure A "Pro-Human" Future
    https://www.iflscience.com/halving-the-earths-population-to-4-billion-is-the-best-way-to-secure-a-pro-human-future-a-new-study-argues-84219



    Achieve Sustainability by Easing Population to 4 Billionby 2200
    https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/sd.71358

    Abstract
    The past century of massive increases in human population and resource use has seen many undesirable environmental effects, ranging from biodiversity loss to climate change. But a research gap exists, as the ultimate causes are often not described with precision or mentioned at all. In this study, metrics of biodiversity, consumption, and pollution show extremely strong correlations when charted against human population size and its per capita impacts. We describe causal mechanisms for these correlations. Then, using available data, we show that slowing and gradually reversing population growth to ∼4 billion or less by 2200, while moderating per capita impacts, is the path toward sustainability. Among the benefits are habitat recovery and conservation of wild species, reduced greenhouse gas emissions and other pollutants, reduced conflict over resources, and the reduction of global poverty.


    Halving Our Global Population to 4 Billion is a Pro-Human and Pro-Nature Choice: Peer-Review Science
    https://youtu.be/yD4ARdVr7d8?si=heClqQAAqH5RvYbl
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    "could expose the financial system to risk" - tak to uz zni vazne, to zavani dlouholetym vyzkumem a podrobnou hodnotici zpravou


    ECB official warns climate crisis poses growing threat to ‘core financial stability’ | Economics | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/aug/01/ecb-climate-wildfires-global-economy-stability

    “I did interviews [previously] saying, you know, if you destroy nature, you destroy the core on which our economies depend. And that got people’s attention. This is not some kind of a flower-power, tree-hugging exercise. This is core economics. This is core financial stability, core price stability.”

    As the supervisor responsible for Europe’s largest banks, the ECB has launched a programme of work to assess how the escalating damage to ecosystem services could expose the financial system to risk.
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    How China’s Position Has Evolved in the COPs and on the Global Climate Geopolitical Stage - Groupe d'études géopolitiques
    https://geopolitique.eu/en/articles/how-chinas-position-has-evolved-in-the-cops-and-on-the-global-climate-geopolitical-stage/
    TADEAS
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    Interesting interview with Earth scientist Bill McGuire.

    One of the most concerning points he discusses is a new (as yet unreviewed) paper suggesting that current satellite observations aren't matching our understanding of Earth's energy imbalance. In other words, the planet appears to be warming faster than existing models can fully explain. As this paper has not yet been peer reviewed, these findings should be treated as provisional until they have undergone independent scientific scrutiny. If they do hold up, they suggest we could exceed 2°C of warming by around 2040, approach 3°C by around 2050, and continue rising thereafter, pushing Earth's climate towards temperatures not experienced for millions of years.

    The video also explores the economic consequences of climate breakdown.

    The Institute and Faculty of Actuaries, the professionals who assess financial risk for banks, insurers and pension funds argue that many economic models are fundamentally underestimating climate risk. Their concern is that most financial institutions treat climate impacts as isolated events, rather than recognising that droughts, crop failures, floods, migration, conflict and supply chain disruption can cascade into one another, creating far greater economic damage than the sum of the individual parts.

    Their warning is stark. Without immediate action to change course, severe climate impacts are not only plausible but could threaten future global prosperity.

    To illustrate the scale of the disagreement, many mainstream economic models still rely on assumptions originating from a model published in 2000, which estimated climate change would reduce global GDP by only around 3% by 2100. By contrast, actuarial risk assessments, produced by people whose job is to price and underwrite multi billion dollar financial risks, warn of around a 15% reduction in global GDP by 2050, rising to as much as 50% by 2100. Some actuarial scenarios even suggest the possibility of widespread societal breakdown beginning around the 2040s, with catastrophic human consequences later this century.

    It does make you wonder whether the old contrarian slogan, "We are the carbon they want to get rid of," has ended up applying in the opposite direction.

    The Insurance Industry Predicts Mass Death: How Do We Live A Good Life?
    https://youtu.be/9Q93ZE54yaE?is=q0M2JBIgKLEgw6ZZ&t=4m0
    TADEAS
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    Ongoing Global Warming Acceleration: 2026 to be Record Warm; Beaten by 2027: Latest by James Hansen
    https://youtu.be/-mSiNLRvaQc?si=-_NI5pYDYtekp1ck
    PER2
    PER2 --- ---
    As the planet heats, public doubt grows: The social structure behind rising climate change scepticism in Germany

    In 2024, global heating exceeded 1.5 °C for the first time. Paradoxically, as the climate crisis becomes ever more evident, climate change scepticism (CCS) has recently grown (rather than declined) in Germany, a high-emissions country with enormous responsibility.

    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378026000919?via=ihub
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    On July 25th, global sea-surface temperatures set a record high anomaly of 0.80°C above the 1991-2020 mean, breaking the previous record of 0.76°C set in January, 2024.

    I had to extend the y-axis to show yesterday's SST anomaly.

    Prof. Eliot Jacobson on X: "Breaking News! Code: y-Axis Alert! / UFB!!! On July 25th, global sea-surface temperatures set a record high anomaly of 0.80°C above the 1991-2020 mean, breaking the previo...
    https://x.com/i/status/2081412532913512884
    ROGER_WILCO
    ROGER_WILCO --- ---
    A groundbreaking study of U.S. population data suggests rising atmospheric carbon dioxide is already altering human blood chemistry, potentially reaching the limits of healthy ranges within decades.
    In a striking revelation that extends the threat of climate change deep into human biology, scientists have discovered that rising global CO2 levels may already be shifting our blood chemistry.
    Analyzing over two decades of U.S. health data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, researchers tracked blood markers in thousands of Americans between 1999 and 2020.
    They found that as atmospheric CO2 climbed from 369 to over 420 parts per million, average serum bicarbonate levels—which help maintain the body's acid-base balance—rose by seven percent, while calcium and phosphorus levels steadily declined. This mirroring effect suggests our bodies are actively trying to compensate for an atmosphere changing faster than we can adapt.
    While these subtle physiological shifts do not mean immediate illness, researchers warn of long-term consequences, particularly for children who face a lifetime of cumulative exposure. Projections show that if current emissions trends continue, average human bicarbonate levels could push past the boundaries of today's accepted healthy range within 50 years, while vital minerals like calcium and phosphorus may fall to worrisome lows.
    These findings demand a major shift in how we view climate policy. CO2 is no longer just an environmental metric or weather driver—it is a long-term public health variable that directly threatens human biology, underscoring an urgent medical incentive to curb emissions.

    source: Larcombe, A. N., & Bierwirth, P. N. (2026). Carbon dioxide overload, detected in human blood, suggests a potentially toxic atmosphere within 50 years. Air Quality, Atmosphere & Health.
    Carbon dioxide overload, detected in human blood, suggests a potentially toxic atmosphere within 50 years | Air Quality, Atmosphere & Health | Springer Nature Link
    https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11869-026-01918-5
    TADEAS
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    ‘Super’ El Niño could cause global food price shock lasting into 2028, analysts say | Global economy | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/jul/12/super-el-nino-severe-shock-global-food-prices-lasting-into-2028-economists-warn
    IOM_NUKSO
    IOM_NUKSO --- ---
    Microsoft’s greenhouse gas pollution increased by roughly 25 percent last year, the company says in its new sustainability report released Thursday.

    The report follows similar ones released by Google and Amazon last week. Together, they show a troubling trend of rising tech company emissions, driven by the global race to build out power-hungry data centers.

    https://www.wired.com/story/microsoft-25-percent-jump-in-carbon-emissions/
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    This is now reality.

    El Niño is now likely to be stronger than anything we’ve seen in recorded history, and probably stronger than anything in the last 50 million years.

    Global temperatures are very likely to reach new, unprecedented levels in the next 1-2 years with far reaching impacts.

    Met4Cast - UK Weather on X: "This is now reality. El Niño is now likely to be stronger than anything we’ve seen in recorded history, and probably stronger than anything in the last 50 million years....
    https://x.com/i/status/2075655921292710354
    ROGER_WILCO
    ROGER_WILCO --- ---
    4 Billion Deaths: What The World Actually Looks Like at 3C of Global Warming
    https://www.groundedaf.io/p/4-billion-deaths-what-the-world-actually
    TADEAS
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    IOM_NUKSO:

    The map is is a model field, not station data. It's a GFS 2‑meter temperature anomaly chart from Tropical Tidbits (init 00z, valid 06z Jul 8 2026), referenced against 1981–2010 CFSR climatology. It shows a large area of strong positive anomalies (+12 to +20 °C) over Botswana/northern South Africa — it's a forecast/reanalysis product, so it corroborates the pattern, not the specific 31.8 °C reading.

    The specific "31.8 °C at Paddock - Paddock is a locality in the KwaZulu‑Natal south-coast hinterland. Herrera's daily station bulletins run ahead of official confirmation — SAWS typically only publishes record confirmations in media releases days to weeks later



    + komentar k windy:

    Windy shows a gridded model field — each cell is a spatial average. A station reading 31.8 °C at a favourable local spot can show as ~27–28 °C on the smoothed surface, because the model neither resolves nor is validated against that exact microsite. Point station maxima routinely beat the gridded value.

    Sparse station reporting. If you flip Windy to observations (station dots) rather than the model layer, you get real readings — but rural South African coverage on the global exchange is thin. Many SAWS automatic stations don't feed the international SYNOP/METAR stream Windy pulls, and a place like Paddock likely has no dot at all. So the actual hot spots can be literally invisible on the obs layer.
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