Through March 11th, 2025, the monthly average global surface temperature for March, 2025 is the hottest on record.



@climatecasino.net on Bluesky
https://bsky.app/profile/climatecasino.net/post/3lkcf364ces2p

Coming soon:

Apocalyptic Authoritarianism
Climate Crisis, Media, and Power
Hanna E. Morris
Journalism and Political Communication Unbound

Analyzes the complex intersection of climate journalism and politics in an age of increasing polarization, nationalism, and social unease
Introduces a theory of "apocalyptic authoritarianism" to explain the ideological roots of the reactionary turn against the so-called "new" New Left and progressive climate justice activists
Offers a robust and empirically grounded account of the shortcomings of and potential opportunities for climate journalism today

https://global.oup.com/academic/product/apocalyptic-authoritarianism-9780197807668?cc=sk&lang=en

vyřešeno

US exits fund that compensates poorer countries for global heating | Trump administration | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/mar/07/us-exits-fund-that-compensates-poorer-countries-for-global-heating

wreckord

Global sea ice hit ‘all-time minimum’ in February, scientists say | Sea ice | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/mar/06/global-sea-ice-hit-all-time-minimum-in-february-scientists-say

Earth’s global temperature has drastically changed over the last 500 million years
Earth’s climate over the last 485 million years fluctuated far more than previously thought, with CO2 playing a dominant role. This study highlights how understanding ancient climates informs modern climate predictions.

Earth’s global temperature has drastically changed over the last 500 million years - The Brighter Side of News
https://www.thebrighterside.news/post/earths-global-temperature-has-drastically-changed-over-the-last-500-million-years/

Diana Urge-VorsatzDiana Urge-Vorsatz
• 2nd • 2nd Vice Chair of the IPCC, Professor at Department of Environmental Sciences and Policy, Central European University
2h • 2 hours ago

After immensely hard work and many sleepless hours, the IPCC can be very proud to have the planned content of all the products of the Seventh Assessment hashtag#AR7 cycle agreed on.

At the same time, I need to register my concerns about the future of both the IPCC as well as our global climate based on certain trends that the changes in the outlines signal.

It is concerning that key words that formed the backbone of previous reports, assessments that were consistent and among the most used components of ARs cycle after cycle after cycle were not accepted to be included in the outlines.

Key scientific concepts, such as hashtag#policies, hashtag#exPostEvaluation, hashtag#scenarios, hashtag#pathways, hashtag#infrastructure, national and subnational [policies], hashtag#lockin, hashtag#maladaptation, hashtag#targets, hashtag#goals, hashtag#NDCs, hashtag#fossilfuels, hashtag#subsidies, cost of inaction, hashtag#UNFCCC, hashtag#ParisAgreement, trade, conflict, market-based [instruments], non-state actors, hashtag#electrification, policy packages, acceleration, hashtag#overshoot, environmental impacts, hashtag#attribution, future emission trends, among others – have been questioned and either cut or replaced in many places, many of these key words do not appear any more in the outline of one WG.

Some words, like the hashtag#ParisAgreement, acceleration, pathways, that form important parts of one working group’s agreed outline, were considered as too policy prescriptive in another working group and were excluded.

In the cycle when we may officially exceed 1.5C global warming and thus the goal of the Agreement signed by virtually all governments, the IPCC will significantly compromise its policy relevance if it cannot focus its assessment, among all the other crucial topics well reflected in the outlines, also on knowledge and science related to NDCs, the Paris Agreement, accelerating not only adaptation but also mitigation action, comprehensive (and policy neutral) ex-post evaluation of policies.

Without a robust assessment of the exponentially growing experience and knowledge on the topics relevant to our global efforts, we are jeopardizing the effectiveness of these crucial multilateral processes – that have so far taken us off of the worst climate pathways since the PA, and that have helped catalyse important achievements such as loss and damage funds and other financial instruments.

We could also jeopardise the very existence of multilateralism about climate change. As already signalled by recent events and trends – if the perspectives and efforts of some parties are poorly reflected, if the relevance of IPCC reports to a crucial part of the global discourse is compromised – it is increasingly concerning how long some parties can still uphold their strong moral (and financial) commitment to not only IPCC but also the multilateral processes such as the UNFCCC, considering the shifts in preferences of their voters.

This is a risk to all of us.

Disclaimer: These are my personal views and not those of the IPCC

Arctic Climate Collapse! This time it's REALLY flipped!!
https://youtu.be/LrS4PKDln0E?si=za6QYaol7wHREGSk


The Arctic region has been a massive store of carbon for thousands of years. Now it's warming between 3 and 7 times faster than the global average and that carbon is escaping into our atmosphere. The latest research suggests that more than a third of it is now a net emitter!

Z cyklu #doomed

Massive methane leaks detected in Antarctica, posing potential risks for global warming | Climate | EL PAÍS English
https://english.elpais.com/climate/2025-02-12/massive-methane-leaks-detected-in-antarctica-posing-potential-risks-for-global-warming.html

Scientists have found enormous columns of methane gas leaking into the atmosphere from Antarctica, with the potential for further leaks amounting to the sum total of what humanity emits over two years.

...

A team of Spanish scientists exploring the Antarctic seabed has detected “massive emissions” of methane, a gas with a capacity to warm the planet around 30 times greater than carbon dioxide (CO₂). The researchers, on board the ship Sarmiento de Gamboa, have observed columns of methane in the ocean up to 700 meters long and 70 meters wide, according to the geologists Ricardo León and Roger Urgeles, leaders of the expedition, in statements to EL PAÍS. These previously unknown emissions could potentially represent an environmental bomb for the planet’s climate.

TADEAS: doplnim obrazek, u nas byla anomalie +5 °C


Copernicus: January 2025 was the warmest on record globally, despite an emerging La Niña | Copernicus
https://climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-january-2025-was-warmest-record-globally-despite-emerging-la-nina

Hottest January on record mystifies climate scientists | Climate crisis | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/feb/06/hottest-january-on-record-climate-scientists-global-temperatures-high

January marked the 18th month of the past 19 to record global-average surface temperatures above the 1.5C preindustrial level.

Climate scientists had expected this exceptional spell to subside after a warming El Niño event peaked in January 2024 and conditions shifted to an opposing, cooling La Niña phase.

But the heat has lingered at record or near-record levels, prompting debate about what other factors could be driving it to the top end of expectations.

Julien Nicolas, a climate scientist at Copernicus, told Agence France-Presse: “This is what makes it a bit of a surprise: you’re not seeing this cooling effect, or temporary brake at least, on the global temperature that we were expecting to see.”


One theory is that a global shift to cleaner shipping fuels in 2020 accelerated warming by reducing sulphur emissions that make clouds more mirror-like and reflective of sunlight.

In December, another peer-reviewed paper looked at whether a reduction in low-lying clouds had let more heat reach the Earth’s surface. “It’s really still a matter of debate,” Nicolas said.

TUHO: Bezos následuje Muska a Trumpa ("klimatická změna neexistuje, pojďme vrtat, baby, vrtat a pálit") a stopl tenhle důležitý projekt:

Jeff Bezos’s $10bn philanthropic fund has stopped backing the world’s leading voluntary climate standard setter, following rising scrutiny over its influence on the body, in a move seen as the billionaire’s latest effort to curry favour with US President Donald Trump.

Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi) je globální iniciativa, která pomáhá firmám stanovit vědecky podložené cíle pro snižování emisí skleníkových plynů v souladu s Pařížskou dohodou. Jejím cílem je zajistit, aby podniky přispívaly k omezení globálního oteplování na maximálně 1,5 °C nad předindustriální úrovní. Zakladateli jsou CDP (Carbon Disclosure Project), UN Global Compact, World Resources Institute (WRI) a WWF, do iniciativy je zapojeno 4 tisíce firem.

Žádná klimatická změna není. Bezos zastavil penězovod | Newstream
https://www.newstream.cz/leaders/klimaticka-zmena-neni-bezos-s-partnerkou-zastavili-penezovod
Subscribe to read
https://www.ft.com/content/c3bf3f5f-afa2-44ce-8314-18ad321cd983

ROGER_WILCO:

Climate change target of 2C is ‘dead’, says renowned climate scientist | Climate crisis | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/feb/04/climate-change-target-of-2c-is-dead-says-renowned-climate-scientist

“The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPPC) defined a scenario which gives a 50% chance to keep warming under 2C – that scenario is now impossible,” he said. “The 2C target is dead, because the global energy use is rising, and it will continue to rise.” The new analysis said global heating is likely to reach 2C by 2045, unless solar geoengineering is deployed.

...

A key focus has been on emissions from shipping. For decades, the sulphate particles produced by ships burning fuel have blocked some sunlight from reaching the Earth’s surface, suppressing temperatures. But in 2020, new anti-pollution regulations came into force, sharply cutting the level of the aerosol particles. This led to more heat from the sun reaching the surface, which scientists measure as watts a square meter (W/m2).

Hansen’s team’s estimate of the impact of this – 0.5W/m2 – is significantly higher than five other recent studies, which ranged from 0.07 to 0.15 W/m2, but would explain the anomalous heat. Hansen’s team used a top-down approach, looking at the change in the reflectivity over key parts of the ocean and ascribing that to the reductions in shipping emissions. The other studies used bottom-up approaches to estimate the increase in heat.

“Both approaches are useful and often complementary,” said Dr Gavin Schmidt, director of Nasa’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies. “But I think in this case, Hansen’s approach is too simple and doesn’t factor in changes in Chinese emissions, or internal variability.”

The new study also argues that the planet’s climate sensitivity to rising carbon emissions has been underestimated, partly because of the underestimation of the impact of reduced shipping emissions.

Global Warming has accelerated: are the United Nations and the public well-informed?

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/epdf/10.1080/00139157.2025.2434494

Jan Umsonst https://www.facebook.com/taoist.attack/posts/3422485977881946
·
A look on the Southern Ocean marine heatwaves - doesn't look good, as they are also intensifying...
Our main problem: ocean heat uptake remained even during the El Nino 2023/24 on record levels - insane the numbers of the last years!
Important for this post: During La Ninas the oceans take up much more heat than during El Ninos.
The central to eastern tropical Pacific being colder than normal during La NInas supports ocean heat uptake over the abnormal cold areas. During El Ninos the opposite happens as the oceans loose vast amounts of heat to the atmosphere during El Ninos when the central to eastern tropical Pacific is warmer than normal.
The high rates of ocean heat uptake during the triple La Nina from 2020 to 2022 are thought to be one reason behind the exceptional ocean surface warming during 2023/24. Some of the take up heat resurfaced into the upper mixed layer during 2023/24 which caused this exceptional surface warming signal. The El Nino in 2023/24 played here a large role.
Still the signal of heat resurfacing had been exceptional.
But now we have the problem that ocean heat uptake did not decline or reversed during 2023/24 when we had the last El Nino emitting vast amounts of energy into the atmosphere.
The rates of ocean heat uptake had been similar in 2023/24 to 2020-22, which should not be possible, at least not back on back...
Lets talk about numbers...
The numbers of ocean heat uptake (IAP/CAS dataset) in 2021 of 15Zj, 2022 of 19Zj, 2023 of 16Zj and 2024 of 16ZJ (1) have to be seen in relation to these numbers:
Regardless of which estimate is used, there has been a two- to three- fold increase in the rate of increase in OHC since the late 1980s. For example, according to the IAP analy- sis, the OHC trend for 1958–1985 is 3.1 ± 0.5 ZJ yr−1, and since 1986, the OHC trend is 9.2 ± 0.5 ZJ yr−1 (Fig. 2). The IAP trend within 1958–1985 of 3.1 ± 0.5 ZJ yr−1 is higher than the previous release in Cheng et al. (2023) (2.3 ± 0.5 ZJ yr−1), mainly because the new inclusion of the bottle data bias correction. After 2007, with better global coverage of ocean subsurface data, OHC uncertainty is reduced. There is a significant warming trend of 10.8 ± 1.2 ZJ yr−1 and 10.3 ± 0.8 ZJ yr−1 from 2007–2023 for IAP/CAS and NCEI/NOAA (seasonal time series), respectively (Fig. 2). The NCEI three-month OHC estimate has a slightly stronger trend than the pentadal time series from 2005 to 2020, indicating the impact of sam- pling changes associated with the mapping approach. (2)
(1) New Record Ocean Temperatures and Related Climate Indicators in 2023"; https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00376-024-3378-5
(2) "Record High Temperatures in the Ocean in 2024"; https://link.springer.com/.../10.1007/s00376-025-4541-3...
These studies are important for what happens in the oceans (read them in the order):
(1) "New Record Ocean Temperatures and Related Climate Indichttps://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00376-024-3378-5
(2) "A Glimpse into the Future: The 2023 Ocean Temperature and Sea Ice Extremes in the Context of Longer-Term Climate Change "; https://journals.ametsoc.org/.../105/3/BAMS-D-23-0209.1.xml
(3) "Record High Temperatures in the Ocean in 2024"; https://link.springer.com/.../10.1007/s00376-025-4541-3...
(4) "Quantifying the acceleration of multidecadal global sea surface warming driven by Earth's energy imbalance"; https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/adaa8a
"Drivers of the 2023 record shattering marine heat extreme in the North Atlantic"; https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-5046018/v1

TADEAS:

New Record for Annual Increase in Keeling Curve Readings | The Keeling Curve
https://keelingcurve.ucsd.edu/2025/01/17/new-record-for-annual-increase-in-keeling-curve-readings/

“This record growth, it certainly got a boost from the 2023-2024 El Niño event, which also helped explain the record growth that we reported last May,” said Keeling. “Although this El Niño event ended early in 2024, it is often the case that El Niño events are associated with higher than normal CO2 growth extending into the northern hemisphere summer following the El Niño event.”

“This last year fit that pattern, but the CO2 growth might have been further boosted by wildfires in North and South America,” Keeling added.

The ultimate cause of the CO2 rise is the burning of fossil fuels, but the rise rate also fluctuates from year to year due to CO2 exchanges with the ocean and land ecosystems, including from fires. CO2 levels are not just at the highest level in millions of years, they are also rising at a record pace.

“These latest results further confirm that we are moving into uncharted territory faster than ever as the rise continues to accelerate,” said Keeling.

This analysis coincides with a new report from Keeling and the UK’s Met Office, which issues forecasts of the annual CO2 rise. Met Office researchers noted that the rise is now incompatible with scenarios used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to assess limiting long-term average global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial times.

“Limiting global warming to 1.5°C would require the CO2 rise to be slowing, but in reality the opposite is happening,” said Richard Betts, who leads the Met Office CO2 forecast team. “Even without the boost from El Niño last year, the CO2 rise driven by fossil fuel burning and deforestation would now be outpacing the IPCC’s 1.5°C scenarios.”