Z cyklu #doomed

“We find that, since 2003, the decrease of cloudiness has been responsible for half of the increase of Earth’s energy imbalance. Analysing the drivers of global changes to cloud cover, we find that the decrease in cloudiness over the past two decades has been primarily driven by humans, rather than being caused by natural variations in Earth’s climate…

Our research finds that about 40% of the low-level cloud decrease since 2003 was driven by warming of the ocean surface – in other words, the cloud feedback process. This is followed by the effects of greenhouse gases (21%) and aerosols (14%).”

Guest post: How declining cloudiness is accelerating global warming - Carbon Brief
https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-how-declining-cloudiness-is-accelerating-global-warming/

Reduced economic activity caused by the current Iran war has not been sufficient to offset the surge in CO₂ emissionsgenerated by the conflict. While economic slowdowns typically lead to modest declines in emissions, the scale of disruption in this case has been relatively limited on a global level.

At the same time, the war has produced a sharp and concentrated spike in emissions from infrastructure destruction, fires, and intensified military operations, resulting in a clear net increase in CO₂ output. A key reason is that war-related emissions are largely additive rather than substitutive. Military fuel use, explosions, and the burning of oil and buildings introduce new emissions on top of ongoing civilian and industrial activity, rather than replacing it. Moreover, the destruction of infrastructure creates a pipeline of future emissions, as rebuilding cities, roads, and energy systems requires large amounts of carbon-intensive materials like cement and steel. These delayed emissions often outweigh any short-term reductions from decreased economic activity.

In addition, the war is triggering indirect effects that further raise emissions, such as shifts toward dirtier energy sources, increased fossil fuel investment for energy security, and longer transportation routes due to regional instability. Historical patterns from other conflicts show that even when emissions dip briefly during periods of disruption, they tend to rebound and exceed prior levels during recovery and reconstruction. Overall, the evidence indicates that the Iran war is contributing to a net increase in emissions both immediately and over the longer term, rather than being offset by reduced economic output.

https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1AiasFSuCW/

J Pecho
https://www.facebook.com/share/p/174EXH86pV/

O klimatickej kríze sa dnes hovorí čoraz menej. Nie preto, že by sa globálna situácia nejako zlepšila, ale preto, že ju z verejného priestoru vytlačili iné témy. Vojny, konflikty, politický chaos, škandály, nekonečný boj o pozornosť. Klíma sa medzitým ďalej mení, a to stále rýchlejšie, bez ohľadu na to, čo je práve na titulke.

To je na tom možno najznepokojujúcejšie. Nie samotné ticho v médiách, ale ticho v spoločnosti. Akoby sme si zvykli, že horúčavy, sucho, požiare či extrémne výkyvy počasia už jednoducho patria k novému normálu. Akoby stačilo prestať o probléme hovoriť a problém sa tým vyriešil.

Lenže nič sa nevyriešilo. Klimatická kríza neodišla na inú planétu. Len sa už nezmestí do rytmu každodenného spravodajstva. A to je veľmi nebezpečné. Keď téma ustúpi, ustúpi aj tlak na politikov, firmy a inštitúcie. Ustúpi ochota konať. Ustúpi pocit naliehavosti.

Klimatická kríza nepotrebuje, aby bola trendovou témou. Potrebuje, aby sme ju brali vážne aj vtedy, keď už nie je úplne „nová“. Nemyslím si, že potrebujeme viac paniky. Skôr viac sústredenia, vytrvalosti a ochoty nestratiť túto tému zo zreteľa.

Klimatická kríza nezmizla. Len sme sa ju, žiaľ, naučili vnímať ako menej naliehavú, než v skutočnosti je.

The planet is overheating. Why is the news looking away? | Grist
https://grist.org/language/global-heating-climate-news-drought-chaos/

30mich poslech

Jedenáct nejteplejších let na Zemi. Zpráva OSN ukazuje, jak lidé vychýlili planetu z rovnováhy • RESPEKT
https://www.respekt.cz/podcasty/jedenact-nejteplejsich-let-na-zemi-zprava-osn-ukazuje-jak-lide-vychylili-planetu-z-rovnovahy

S Radimem Tolaszem o dosluhujících oceánech i cestě z klimatické krize ve světle výroční zprávy o stavu klimatu od Světové meteorologické organizace (WMO).

limatická krize nikam nezmizela, jakkoliv by si to asi každý pozemšťan přál. Naopak. Vědci získaná a ověřená fakta hovoří jasně. Lidé narušili křehkou rovnováhu pozemského systému a důsledky pociťujeme všichni. Teplota roste a související dopady včetně extrémních projevů počasí sílí. Na konkrétní projevy upozorňuje nová zpráva o stavu globálního klimatu za rok 2025 od Světové meteorologické organizace.

SAMOTNÁ ZPRÁVA KE STAŽENÍ zde: State of the Global Climate 2025

State of the Global Climate 2025
https://library.wmo.int/records/item/69807-state-of-the-global-climate-2025?offset

US/Israel’s war on Iran is a disaster for environment

War led to 5m tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions in 2 weeks draining global carbon budget faster than 84 countries combined
2.5m and 5.9m barrels of oil burned in attack on 4 oil storage facilities

5m tonnes of CO2 emitted in just 14 days of US war on Iran, analysis finds | US-Israel war on Iran | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/21/middle-east-iran-conflict-environment-climate

Next up as a second-order effect of Trump's Iranian adventure: mass famine.

And I mean mass:.if the straits of Hormuz don't open again soon, about half the global calories will disappear.

You read that right. You see, the planting season in the northern hemisphere is about to start, and you can't negotiate with seeds.

THE NITROGEN TRAP - Shanaka Anslem Perera
https://substack.com/home/post/p-191106427

P Worms
https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1AmdTujaWZ/

There's been much discussion of the impact on energy systems of the closure of the Persian Gulf, but rather less than I would have expected of the - to my mind - more alarming impact on several kinds of fertiliser and other feedstocks of the global food system. Without going into details, modelling suggests that will throw several hundred million more people into food insecurity.

Crops need fertility to grow, and in the usual industrial farming systems that dominate the planet, those fertilisers must come from fossil fuels (my tribe of agroecologists has long shown that different production systems can generate more food while damaging soil and biodiversity less with only a fraction of those inputs, yet here we are - the reasons why is a discussion for another day). But plants also need water, and here this year, the problems linked to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz risk being compounded by a phenomenon called El Niño. This redistributes heat from the Western to the eastern Pacific that is then released to the atmosphere, creating a warming pulse that leads to drought conditions across much of the world and weaker monsoons in places like India.

On top of that, there is rising evidence that the climate forcing - i.e. the amount of global heating we get from a doubling of CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere - has been seriously underestimated over the past decades: instead of being about 2-3°C, it's more in the region of 4-5°C (the paper i'm sharing here details the reasons).

That higher forcing is a problem for the medium term.. But in the short term, the climate system through El Niño willi amplify the horrors about to be unleashed on the food system by Trump’s war of choice.


Super El Nino? Super Warming is the Main Issue.
https://jimehansen.substack.com/p/super-el-nino-super-warming-is-the

Informal Institutions in Policy Implementation : Comparing Low Carbon Policies in China and Russia
Anna Korppoo, Iselin Stensdal, Marius Korsnes


"At a time of global climate crisis, this crucial book examines the prospects for implementing low-carbon policies in the two global superpowers of China and Russia, focusing on the role of informal institutions in achieving reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Chapters shed light on how informal institutions function and work in practice, how and why they take shape and how they influence formal low-carbon policies. Forensically examining five critical cases relating to Chinese and Russian institutions, this book demonstrates how informal institutions can both support and obstruct the achievement of formal policy goals. Through comparisons within and between each country, it shows how these dynamics differ and offers key hypothesis on the role of these institutions in policy implementation. Comprehensive and incisive, this book will be important reading for scholars researching public policy in China and Russia, particularly those specialising in environmental science and politics. The practical insights derived from new case studies will also be useful for policymakers working on climate mitigation policy"-- Provided by publisher

Informal Institutions in Policy Implementation : Comparing Low Carbon Policies in China and Russia - Anna’s Archive
https://annas-archive.gd/md5/b2183bbd0083aa22b3f3767acdb4178b

China’s Renewable Energy Revolution Is a Huge Mess That Might Save the World
A global onslaught of cheap Chinese green power is upending everything in its path. No one is ready for its repercussions.

There’s a particular kind of sci-fi nerd who equates fusion tech with utopia. If we could only harness the engine of the stars, it would uncork near limitless energy and neatly sweep away a whole mess of humanity’s problems. But how would that work exactly? What would the transition look like?
You don’t have to wonder. It’s happening now. Solar panels and wind turbines capture the fusion of the sun and convert it to electricity. And at the scale and pace that China is producing them, plenty of things stand to be swept away—including, quite possibly, the once seemingly intractable problems of energy poverty and fossil-fuel dependence. In 2024, the total installed electricity capacity of the planet—every coal, gas, hydro, and nuclear plant and all of the renewables—was about 10 terawatts. The Chinese solar supply chain can now pump out 1 terawatt of panels every year.
In China itself, vast energy megabases combining solar and wind stretch for miles in the country’s western deserts and Tibetan highlands, each producing the power of multiple nuclear plants and connecting to population centers in the country’s east via ultrahigh-voltage power lines. At the smaller end of the scale, panels have sprouted on rooftops all over the more populated eastern half of the country, thanks to policies that standardize the process and paperwork required to install and tie them into the grid. Huge factories, urban apartment buildings, and humble village homes are plastered with panels. In Europe, Chinese-made photovoltaic panels are so cheap that they cost less than fencing materials. Globally, the glut of solar has lowered the average cost of generating electricity to 4 cents a kilowatt hour—perhaps the cheapest form of energy ever.

https://archive.is/20260305231230/https://www.wired.com/story/china-renewable-energy-revolution/#selection-947.0-969.864

Cina / China

Implementing a Low-Carbon Future
Climate Leadership in Chinese Cities
Weila Gong
Studies in Comparative Energy and Environmental Politics

- Based on extensive interviews with government officials and policy practitioners across different levels of government in China
- Introduces the conceptual framework of "bridging leadership" to explain uneven subnational climate policy engagement
- Meticulous process tracing of local climate policymaking in agenda setting, policy formation, and implementation in four low-carbon pilot cities


https://global.oup.com/academic/product/implementing-a-low-carbon-future-9780197757420?cc=sk&lang=en

Revealed: the world’s worst mega-leaks of methane driving global heating | Greenhouse gas emissions | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/mar/17/revealed-world-worst-methane-leaks-global-heating

The world’s worst mega-leaks of the potent greenhouse gas methane in 2025 have been revealed by an analysis of satellite data.

The super-polluting plumes from oil and gas facilities have a colossal heating impact on the climate but often result from poor maintenance and can be simple to fix. The assessment found dozens of mega-leaks, each having the same global heating impact as a coal-fired power station.

The researchers said it was “maddening” that such easy action to fight the climate crisis was not being taken, and said people should be angry. Stopping the leaks can even be free, given that captured gas can be sold – methane is the “natural gas” that fires power stations.

The mega-leaks occur across the world, but the top 25 list, produced by the Stop Methane Project at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), is dominated by facilities in Turkmenistan. The scale of methane leaks in the secretive and authoritarian state has previously been described as “mind-boggling”.

Super-polluting plumes were also seen in the US, the largest detected in 2025 occurring in Texas and leaking 5.5 tonnes of methane per hour, equivalent to running about a million fuel-guzzling SUVs. Venezuela (five) and Iran (three) also had multiple mega-leaks from state-owned facilities.

The Stop Methane Project also analysed super-polluting plumes from landfill sites, where rotting organic waste can release huge volumes of methane when not well managed. The worst sites ranged across the world, from Turkey to Algeria and Malaysia to the US.

but... robots&datacenters

Planetary Solvency – finding our balance with nature
https://actuaries.org.uk/planetary-solvency

The global economy could face a 50% loss in GDP between 2070 and 2090, unless immediate policy action on risks posed by the climate crisis is taken. Populations are already impacted by food system shocks, water insecurity, heat stress and infectious diseases. If unchecked, mass mortality, mass displacement, severe economic contraction and conflict become more likely.

‘Planetary Solvency – finding our balance with nature’ is the IFoA’s fourth report in collaboration with climate scientists. The report develops a framework for global risk management to address these risks and show how this approach can support future prosperity. It also shows how a lack of realistic risk messaging to guide policy decisions has led to slower action than is needed.

The report proposes a novel Planetary Solvency risk dashboard, to provide decision-useful risk information to support policymakers to drive human activity within the finite bounds of the planet that we live on.

je libo být vařenou žábou?

Significant acceleration of global warming since 2015 — Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
https://www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/latest-news/significant-acceleration-of-global-warming-since-2015

Humanity heating planet faster than ever before, study finds | Climate crisis | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/mar/06/humanity-heating-planet-faster-than-ever-before-study-finds

global heating accelerated from a steady rate of less than 0.2C per decade between 1970 and 2015 to about 0.35C per decade over the past 10 years. The rate is higher than scientists have seen since they started systematically taking the Earth’s temperature in 1880.

“If the warming rate of the past 10 years continues, it would lead to a long-term exceedance of the 1.5C (2.7F) limit of the Paris agreement before 2030,” said Stefan Rahmstorf, a scientist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and co-author of the study.

Extreme heat in recent years has been pushed higher by natural fluctuations – such as solar cycles, volcanic eruptions, and the weather pattern El Niño – that have led scientists to question whether startling temperature readings are outliers or the result of an increase in global heating.

The researchers applied a noise-reduction method to filter out the estimated effect of nonhuman factors in five major datasets that scientists have compiled to gauge the Earth’s temperature. In each of them, they found an acceleration in global heating emerged in 2013 or 2014.

Global sea levels have been underestimated due to poor modelling, research suggests | Oceans | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/mar/04/global-sea-levels-underestimated-poor-modelling-research

The new calculations reveal that following a relative sea level rise of 1 metre, it is estimated that 37% more coastal areas will fall below sea level, affecting up to 132 million individuals.

“If sea level is higher for your particular island or coastal city than was previously assumed, the impacts from sea level rise will happen sooner than projected before,” said Minderhoud.

Describing the discrepancy as an “interdisciplinary blind spot”, the scientists are concerned that a large proportion of the studies analysed in their research, which they believe are inaccurate, are referenced in the most recent climate change reports published by the IPCC.

TADEAS: related

Antarctica just saw fastest glacier collapse ever recorded
Antarctica’s Hektoria Glacier lost nearly half its ice in just 2 months after lifting off a flat seabed and shattering apart
Such events could accelerate global sea level rise much faster than predicted

Antarctica just saw the fastest glacier collapse ever recorded | ScienceDaily
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2026/02/260226042454.htm