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    TUHOKlimaticka zmena / Destroying the Future Is the Most Cost-Effective


    "Given the sheer enormity of climate change, it’s okay to be depressed, to grieve. But please, don’t stay there too long. Join me in pure, unadulterated, righteous anger."


    "I don’t want your hope. I don’t want you to be hopeful. I want you to panic. I want you to feel the fear I feel every day. And then I want you to act. Once you start to act, the hope is everywhere."

    "Our best scientists tell us insistently that a calamity is unfolding, that the life-support systems of the Earth are being damaged in ways that threaten our survival. Yet in the face of these facts we carry on as usual."

    “We’ve got to stop burning fossil fuels. So many aspects of life depend on fossil fuels, except for music and love and education and happiness. These things, which hardly use fossil fuels, are what we must focus on.”

    A nejde o to, že na to nemáme dostatečné technologie, ty by na řešení použít šly, ale chybí nám vůle a představivost je využít. Zůstáváme při zemi, přemýšlíme až moc rezervovaně. Technologický pokrok to sám o sobě nevyřeší. Problém jsme my, ne technologické nástroje.

    Rostouci hladiny oceanu, zmena atmosferickeho proudeni, zmeny v distribuci srazek a sucha. Zmeny karbonoveho, fosforoveho a dusikoveho cyklu, okyselovani oceanu. Jake jsou bezpecnostni rizika a jake potencialni klady dramatickych zmen fungovani zemskeho systemu?
    Ale take jak funguji masove dezinformacni kampane ropneho prumyslu a boj o verejne mineni na prahu noveho klimatickeho rezimu post-holocenu.
    rozbalit záhlaví
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    Vcetne linku na studii

    “A regime shift has reduced Antarctic sea-ice extent far below its natural variability of past centuries, and in some respects is more abrupt, non-linear and potentially irreversible than Arctic sea-ice loss.”

    “The tipping point for unstoppable ice loss from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet could be exceeded even under best-case CO2emission reduction pathways, potentially initiating global tipping cascades.”

    https://x.com/ryankatzrosene/status/1959962663477252347?t=PCdPmz-BZpm9GjrM6D1ZcA&s=19
    TADEAS
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    The green transition has a surprising new home
    https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/08/21/the-green-transition-has-a-surprising-new-home

    The green transition has a surprising new home

    Forget about northern Europeans, with their coalition governments and love of cycling

    Picture a country where renewables are being rapidly rolled out and electric-vehicle sales are surging, and you will probably have in mind somewhere smug and northern European; a place with tall people, coalition governments and a yen for cycling holidays. Or perhaps the first thing that pops into your head is the sheer scale of China, which manufactures the bulk of such equipment and last year contributed more than half of the global increase in solar and wind installation.Think again. For a wave of Chinese-made electric vehicles is flooding new markets. In the past year sales of evs have more than tripled in Turkey, where Togg, a local brand, is also popular—they now account for 27% of all cars sold, making the country the fourth-largest European market. Last year more than 70% of cars imported into Nepal were electric. Some 60% of new cars sold in Ethiopia were battery-powered, after the state banned sales of internal-combustion-engine vehicles altogether. ev sales have doubled in Vietnam over the past year owing, in part, to VinFast, a local carmaker. Two- and three-wheelers are surging in popularity, too. The International Energy Agency (iea), a forecaster, reckons that across developing countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America ev sales rose by 60% in 2024.

    It is a similar story with renewables. In the first six months of the year, Pakistan generated 25% of its electricity from solar power—not far below the 32% managed by California, a clean-energy pioneer. The country’s battery imports are booming as well. Indeed, the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, a think-tank, estimates that on current trends battery storage will cover 26% of Pakistan’s peak-electricity demand by 2030. Meanwhile, over the past year Morocco has increased its wind generation by 50%, becoming the country with the ninth most. India has seen four months of decline in coal-power generation, aided by an increase of 14% in renewable generation.Lust for powerAlthough the principles of international climate diplomacy suggest that poorer countries, being less responsible for climate change, have less duty to go green, many face strong economic incentives to do so anyway. Most countries in the global south are energy importers, and therefore must use scarce foreign currency to buy oil and gas. China and India have coal reserves that play an important role in their economies and power generation, but neither has significant oil or gas reserves. For its part, Ethiopia’s ban on internal-combustion engines was not a green measure—it was designed to cut spending on fossil fuels and save foreign currency.

    Moreover, across emerging markets, Chinese-made evs are now about as cheap as traditional vehicles. In some places, they are even cheaper. The iea reckons that last year the average Chinese ev sold for around $30,000 in Thailand, compared with $34,000 for the typical petrol-engine car. At the bottom end of the market, old-fashioned vehicles still have an advantage, but only a relatively modest one. Government policies have also made a difference. In Turkey purchasers of evs typically paid a tax of only 10%, compared with one of between 45% and 220% for petrol-powered vehicles. The recent surge in part reflected car-buyers getting ahead of a reduction in the generosity of the policy.

    Clean technology generally requires more upfront investment than fossil-fuel tech, even if it has lower lifetime costs. This has historically held it back in places where the cost of capital is high. The iea has calculated that the typical cost of capital for a solar project in India, for instance, is 11%, compared with around half that in rich countries. But the Rocky Mountain Institute, an American pressure group, now estimates that, owing to falling prices, many clean technologies have reached “capex parity”, where initial costs are the same as fossil fuels on a per-unit basis. As a consequence, they have become more attractive in large parts of the world.Tariffs have been helpful, too. As America and the eu attempt to shut out Chinese evs, they are finding their way to other markets—at even cheaper prices. For the most part, emerging markets lack legacy manufacturers that will lobby their governments to keep out Chinese imports. Yet this relatively free trade is at risk as protectionism begins to spread. Until recently Brazil allowed evs into its economy tariff-free; now it is gradually raising import taxes to 35% by 2026. India’s imports of finished solar panels have stagnated as the country seeks to build its own supply chain. Nigeria is considering banning solar-panel imports altogether in an effort to support domestic manufacturers.

    Governments are at least also creating loopholes that allow Chinese imports to continue so long as the companies in question commit to local production. Brazil has carved out an exemption for byd, a carmaker, while it establishes a factory in the country. Indonesia has reduced value-added tax on evs from 11% to 1% for vehicles that meet a 40% local-content requirement; foreign manufacturers, meanwhile, can bring in equipment duty-free so long as they promise to increase domestic production by 2026 and provide a guarantee for the forgone tariffs if they do not follow through. Such policies are far from perfect—but they are better than the alternative. Well-heeled northern Europeans have something to learn. ■
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    zajimavej clanek jak evropu ve vyvoji oze vytlacila cina spicky vyvoje oze na periferii.
    za poslednich 15 let

    How China Went From Clean Energy Copycat to Global Innovator - The New York Times
    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/08/14/climate/china-clean-energy-patents.html

    vycuc

    https://x.com/jonasnahm/status/1957149278146589062?s=46&t=nwPQW0MLXH-jm2eAzTizT
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    TADEAS:

    vyřešeno

    James Hansen: Global Climate Sensitivity is 4.5C for 2x CO2 with 99% Certainty: IPCC 3.0C is WRONG
    https://youtu.be/-z0rxj7c7CM?si=YdFh9GpbjJtXLfeS
    TADEAS
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    https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adx0298

    An Unprecedented Drying of the Continents: A Decline in Freshwater Availability

    This study analyzes changes in terrestrial water storage—which includes all forms of water stored on land, such as ice, snow, surface water, vegetation water, soil moisture, and groundwater.

    It reveals that since 2002, the continents have experienced an unprecedented loss of terrestrial water storage—a critical indicator of freshwater availability.

    Each year, areas undergoing drying have expanded by an amount equivalent to twice the size of California, creating “mega-dry” regions across the Northern Hemisphere. While most of the world’s dry areas are getting drier and wet areas wetter, the rate of drying is now outpacing the rate of wetting. This shift is driven by water losses in high latitudes, severe droughts in Central America and Europe, and widespread groundwater depletion—which alone accounts for 68% of the non-glacial continental water loss.

    “The drying of the continents has profound global consequences. Since 2002, 75% of the world’s population has lived in 101 countries that have lost freshwater. Furthermore, continents now contribute more to sea level rise than ice sheets do, with drying regions contributing more than glaciers and ice sheets combined. Urgent action is needed to prepare for the major impacts highlighted by these findings.”

    The Rise of Mega-Dry Regions on Land

    Previous studies identified key features of changing terrestrial water storage across continents, consistent with climate model projections, glacier and ice sheet melt, global groundwater depletion, and shifts in flood and drought extremes. This study demonstrates how recent regional and continental trends in water storage are accelerating continental drying.

    Implications for Freshwater Availability

    Today, excessive groundwater pumping is the main driver behind the decline in terrestrial water storage in drying regions. It significantly worsens the effects of rising temperatures, increased aridity, and extreme drought. Continued overexploitation of groundwater—such as what's happening in California at an accelerating pace—threatens both regional and global water and food security in ways that remain largely underrecognized worldwide.

    Groundwater depletion is directly influenced by water management decisions—and can also be stopped by them.

    In many areas, once groundwater is depleted, it will not naturally replenish on a human timescale. The disappearance of groundwater from the Earth’s aquifers represents a new and serious threat to humanity, creating cascading risks that are rarely considered in environmental policy, water management, or governance. This is an intergenerational resource that is being poorly managed—or not managed at all—by today’s societies, at a tremendous and deeply underestimated cost to future generations.

    Protecting the world’s groundwater reserves is essential in a warming world and on continents we now know are drying out.

    A Call to Action

    Just as efforts to slow climate change are faltering, so too are efforts to curb the drying of the continents.

    Key policy decisions and new management strategies—particularly those promoting groundwater sustainability at both national and regional levels—alongside international initiatives for global groundwater sustainability, can help safeguard this vital resource for generations to come.

    Major, coordinated efforts—national, international, global, and transdisciplinary—are urgently needed to raise awareness and spur action on the drying of the continents and the decline in freshwater availability.
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Hansen

    We, and young people, need help from people who understand the essence of climate science. See

    Forest versus Trees
    https://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2025/ForestTrees.06August2025.pdf


    or its abbreviation:

    Seeing the Forest for the Trees
    https://mailchi.mp/caa/seeing-the-forest-for-the-trees


    also available on my Substack:




    Seeing the Forest for the Trees - by James Hansen
    https://jimehansen.substack.com/p/seeing-the-forest-for-the-trees

    Summary: seeing the forest for the trees

    Climate change depends on climate sensitivity and the strength of the forcing that drives change. Of the main sources of information – paleoclimate, modern observations, and GCMs – the first two are least ambiguous, but all three are consistent with climate sensitivity 4.5°C ± 1°C (2σ, 95% confidence) for doubled CO2, which excludes IPCC’s best estimate of climate sensitivity (3°C for doubled CO2). IPCC also underestimates the strength of the aerosol climate forcing.

    In the real world, climate sensitivity and aerosol forcing are independent, but they are joined at the hip in climate assessments that focus on the ability of GCMs to reproduce observed global warming. It is reasonable that climate modelers use observed global temperature change to help constrain the GCMs. The complication is that there are two major unknowns: climate sensitivity (mainly because the cloud feedback is uncertain) and the climate forcing (because the aerosol forcing is unmeasured), while there is only one hard constraint (the observed global warming rate). As a result, if climate sensitivity turns out to be high, greater aerosol forcing (i.e., greater aerosol cooling) is required for agreement with observed global temperature.

    Independent sources of information, from paleoclimate on climate sensitivity and from satellite data on the cloud feedback, show that, in reality, climate sensitivity is high. Thus, aerosol forcing (and the aerosol cooling effect) have also been underestimated by IPCC. In addition, aerosol cooling has weakened since 2005, mainly because of reduced emissions from China and ships.

    Those are the principal conclusions of our two papers (“Global warming in the pipeline” and “Global warming has accelerated”) that address the fundamental issues of climate sensitivity and the human-made climate forcing. These issues are a large part of the “forest” of climate science.

    Within that part of the climate science forest, many uncertainties remain. For example, how does the cloud feedback work? Tselioudis et al.[3] suggest that it is mainly from a poleward shifting of climate zones, as opposed to an effect of global warming on cloud microphysics. It is important to understand such issues, as the correct explanation may affect the continuing climate change.

    Another example: we argue that reduction of ship aerosols has more effect on global temperature than reduction of aerosols from China, even if the mass reduction of Chinese emissions is larger. Ships emissions are more efficient in affecting clouds because they are injected into relatively pristine ocean air at altitudes that have greatest effect on cloud formation. Observed global distributions of albedo and temperature change are consistent with a large role for ship emissions, although alternative explanations for those distributions may be possible. Temporal changes of albedo and temperature also match better with the 2015 and 2020 changes of ship emissions, rather than with the decrease of emissions from China, which began in 2006.

    The forest of climate science includes other areas – besides climate sensitivity and climate forcings – that are also important. For example, potential impacts of climate change include shutdown of the overturning ocean circulation and large sea level rise,[4] which may be the most important of all the climate issues. These climate impacts depend on the magnitude of global warming, which is a reason to first consider climate sensitivity and climate forcings.
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Sustainable Global Cooling | Dr. Ye Tao MEER Presentation – LCAW 2025
    https://youtu.be/jo4ImWevZQo?si=q4HbMgFNyAdtP0iT


    In this compelling talk, Ye Tao, founder of the MEER initiative (Mirrors for Earth's Energy Rebalancing), presents the principles of sustainable global cooling—a strategy rooted in science, constrained by real-world limits of energy and material availability.
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    Earth's continents are drying out at unprecedented rate, satellite data reveal | Space
    https://www.space.com/science/climate-change/earths-continents-are-drying-out-at-unprecedented-rate-satellite-data-reveal

    As a result, 75% of the world's population now lives in areas suffering from fresh water loss, with repercussions on agriculture, sanitation, and climate change resilience. The trend is also likely to cause further desertification of areas already suffering from insufficient rainfall.
    ...
    The researchers said that the loss of continental water now contributes more to the global sea level rise than the melting of ice sheets.
    ...
    The study, led by researchers from Arizona State University, revealed that even areas that previously showed tendencies to increased wetness are now getting drier or at least not getting wetter at the previously detected pace.
    ...
    Overpumping groundwater is the largest contributor to the rates of terrestrial water storage decline in drying regions, significantly amplifying the impacts of increasing temperatures," the researchers wrote in the paper. "The continued overuse of groundwater, which in some regions like California, is occurring at an increasing, rather than at sustainable or decreasing rates, undermines regional and global water and food security."
    ...
    They added that the depleted groundwater won't get replenished "on human timescales," causing a "critical, emerging threat to humanity," which risks triggering a cascade of further calamities.

    "[Groundwater] is an intergenerational resource that is being poorly managed, if managed at all by recent generations, at tremendous and exceptionally undervalued cost to future generations," the researchers wrote. "Protecting the world's groundwater supply is paramount in a warming world and on continents that we now know are drying."
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    ‘We’re the canary in the coalmine’: when will Russia take action on the climate? | Climate crisis | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/jul/18/when-will-russia-take-action-on-the-climate

    the country remains the world’s fourth-largest emitter of greenhouse gases and is often described as a laggard – or even an obstructionist – on climate policy. (Russia is the second largest emitter of methane, a powerful greenhouse gas, but is not signed up to the global methane pledge.)

    Angelina Davydova, a leading Russian environmental expert, said: “Russia keeps saying that the climate is important, that international cooperation on climate change is important. But then Russia is not doing anything to combat it. I don’t think it’s a pressing issue; they are happy with the status quo.”

    This may be because, in no small part, Russia’s economic stability depends on the fossil fuels that are one of the root causes of the crisis.
    XCHAOS
    XCHAOS --- ---
    For every degree of global warming, the temperature on the hottest days in the Netherlands increases by 3.3°C.
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    Z cyklu seriozne #doomed

    Major reversal in ocean circulation detected in the Southern Ocean, with key climate implications | Institut de Ciències del Mar
    https://www.icm.csic.es/en/news/major-reversal-ocean-circulation-detected-southern-ocean-key-climate-implications?

    “We are witnessing a true reversal of ocean circulation in the Southern Hemisphere—something we’ve never seen before,” explains Antonio Turiel, ICM-CSIC researcher and co-author of the study. “While the world is debating the potential collapse of the AMOC in the North Atlantic, we’re seeing that the SMOC is not just weakening, but has reversed. This could have unprecedented global climate impacts.”

    According to the research team, the consequences of this reversal are already becoming visible. The upwelling of deep, warm, CO₂-rich waters is believed to be driving the accelerated melting of sea ice in the Southern Ocean. In the long term, this process could double current atmospheric CO₂ concentrations by releasing carbon that has been stored in the deep ocean for centuries—potentially with catastrophic consequences for the global climate.
    ...
    “The new processor has allowed us to obtain surface salinity data of unprecedented quality in this region,” explains Verónica González. “Thanks to this improvement, we can now provide a coherent explanation for the rapid Antarctic sea ice loss that had puzzled the scientific community.”
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    National Climate Assessment website goes dark : NPR
    https://www.npr.org/2025/07/01/nx-s1-5453501/national-climate-assessment-nca5-archive-report

    The website that hosts the most recent edition of the National Climate Assessment has gone dark. The sprawling report is the most influential source of information about how climate change affects the United States.

    The National Climate Assessment is widely used by teachers, city planners, farmers, judges and regular citizens looking for answers to common questions such as how quickly sea levels are rising near American cities and how to deal with wildfire smoke exposure. The most recent edition had a searchable atlas that allowed anyone to learn about the current and future effects of global warming in their specific town or state.

    On Monday, the government website that hosts all of that information stopped working.

    The Trump administration had already halted work on the next edition of the report, and fired all the staff who worked on it.
    TADEAS
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    Mediterranean Marine Heatwave brings water temperatures at record levels
    https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/marine-heatwave-summer-2025-mediterranean-heat-dome-europe-mk/
    SHEFIK
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    Heat Dome brings the most intense heatwave of the year into western Europe; France up to +43 °C next week
    https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/heat-dome-intense-heatwave-summer-june-july-2025-france-europe-mk/

    The final days of June in Europe will remain dominated by an extensive and persistent Heat Dome aloft. After days of significant heat this week, another even more intense heatwave is forecast to expand into western Europe, pushing temperatures up to +43 °C over France and +45 °C in Portugal and Spain early next week. Significant heat will expand into central Europe by mid-week and continue into early July 2025. Drought conditions are worsening, and wildfire threats are gradually increasing.
    CHOSIE
    CHOSIE --- ---
    TADEAS: 2.7°C vycházejíc z IPCC, které podceňuje global dimming a omezeně bere v potaz tipping points a negativní feedbacky.
    SCHWEPZ
    SCHWEPZ --- ---
    High-income groups disproportionately contribute to climate extremes worldwide | Nature Climate Change
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-025-02325-x

    Two-thirds of global heating caused by richest 10%, study suggests | Climate crisis | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/may/07/two-thirds-of-global-heating-caused-by-richest-study-suggests

    Výzkumníci z Mezinárodního institutu pro aplikovanou systémovou analýzu (IIASA) se v nové studii pokusili zmapovat, jak se příjmové nerovnosti a s nimi spojená vyšší či nižší spotřeba podílejí na klimatické změně.

    Zjistili, že desetina nejbohatších lidí na světě je odpovědná za dvě třetiny globálního oteplení zaznamenaného od roku 1990.

    Desetina nejbohatších přispěla sedmkrát více než průměr k celosvětovému nárůstu měsíčních extrémních teplot, jedno procento nejbohatších dokonce 26krát.

    Zato 50 procent nejchudších obyvatel se na globálních emisích podílelo pouze z jedné desetiny.

    Jak napsal server The Guardian, předchozí studie již dříve prokázaly, že skupiny s vyššími příjmy do atmosféry vypouštějí neúměrně velké množství skleníkových plynů. Nová studie se ale poprvé snaží určit, zda se tato příjmová nerovnost nějakým způsobem promítá do odpovědnosti za klimatickou krizi.

    „Naše studie ukazuje, že extrémní klimatické dopady nejsou jen důsledkem abstraktních globálních emisí, ale můžeme je přímo spojit s naším životním stylem a investičními rozhodnutími, která zase souvisejí s bohatstvím,“ uvedla pro The Guardian Sarah Schöngartová, analytička klimatického modelování a hlavní autorka studie.

    Desetina nejbohatších lidí je zodpovědná za dvě třetiny globálního oteplení, zjistila studie - Novinky
    https://www.novinky.cz/clanek/veda-skoly-desetina-nejbohatsich-lidi-je-zodpovedna-za-dve-tretiny-globalniho-otepleni-zjistila-studie-40522990

    Extreme Weather - NASA Science
    https://science.nasa.gov/climate-change/extreme-weather/
    TADEAS
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    World faces new danger of ‘economic denial’ in climate fight, Cop30 head says | Cop30 | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/may/28/andre-correa-do-lago-cop30-interview-climate-crisis

    The world is facing a new form of climate denial – not the dismissal of climate science, but a concerted attack on the idea that the economy can be reorganised to fight the crisis, the president of global climate talks has warned.

    André Corrêa do Lago, the veteran Brazilian diplomat who will direct this year’s UN summit, Cop30, believes his biggest job will be to counter the attempt from some vested interests to prevent climate policies aimed at shifting the global economy to a low-carbon footing.

    “There is a new kind of opposition to climate action. We are facing a discredit of climate policies. I don’t think we are facing climate denial,” he said, referring to the increasingly desperate attempts to pretend there is no consensus on climate science that have plagued climate action for the past 30 years. “It’s not a scientific denial, it’s an economic denial.”

    This economic denial could be just as dangerous and cause as much delay as repeated attempts to deny climate science in previous years, he warned in an exclusive interview with the Guardian.
    NIMBUS
    NIMBUS --- ---
    ERGOSUM: Stačí Ti ten graf v kolečku?
    A spiral of global surface temperatures from 1880 to 2021
    https://youtu.be/xBK5yh26s3A
    Kliknutím sem můžete změnit nastavení reklam