Fertiliser shortages will have ‘dramatic’ effect on global food prices, warns farming boss | Supply chain crisis | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/may/06/fertiliser-shortages-iran-war-global-food-prices-farming

Fertiliser shortages caused by the Iran war have driven up costs for UK farmers by up to 70% and will have a “dramatic” impact on food prices globally next year, according to one of Britain’s most powerful property and farming companies.

Mark Preston, executive trustee of the 349-year-old Grosvenor Group, controlled by the Duke of Westminster, said fertiliser “was already quite expensive” before the 50% to 70% surge in prices since the start of the Iran war in late February.

The effective closure of the strait of Hormuz – which Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said on Wednesday could soon reopen – has throttled global supplies of fertiliser, crucial to growing food crops.

Preston said that, although UK crops were unlikely to be affected this year as most fertiliser had already been used, the knock-on effect could arrive next year. “Farmers are not buying that fertiliser, they’re sitting on their hands and hoping things will improve, which they probably won’t,” he said.

J Pecho
https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1DTSRxcpzX/


Celá energetická sieť planéty v jednej mape — aj s povodňovým rizikom

Narazil som na fascinujúci projekt OpenGridWorks — interaktívnu mapu globálnej energetickej infraštruktúry, ktorú zostavil Brian Bartholomew zlepením desiatok verejných datasetov.

Čo všetko v nej je:
🏭 vyše 120 000 elektrární po celom svete
🔌 ~2,7 milióna km vedení vysokého a stredného napätia
⚙️ vyše 800 000 rozvodní
🖥️ lokácie dátových centier (vrátane plánovaných)
🛢️ plynovody, podmorské káble, plánované prenosové projekty
🌊 mapy s povodňovým rizikom

A práve tá posledná vrstva je z hľadiska klimatickej zmeny najzaujímavejšia. Ide o globálny dataset WRI Aqueduct Floods — záplavové mapy v rozlíšení 1 km, modelované pre rôzne návrhové periódy (od 2-ročnej až po 1000-ročnú vodu) a pre tri časové horizonty: dnes, 2030, 2050 a 2080, pri scenároch RCP 4.5 a RCP 8.5. Modeluje sa zvlášť riečna a pobrežná záplava (so zahrnutím vzostupu hladiny morí).

Inými slovami: dá sa zazoomovať na ktorúkoľvek elektráreň alebo rozvodňu na svete a pozrieť, či bude v polovici storočia stáť v zóne storočnej vody.

Dáta pochádzajú z OpenStreetMap, Global Energy Monitor, EIA, HIFLD, WRI Aqueduct a ďalších otvorených zdrojov. Pokrytie je pre USA husté, pre zvyšok sveta závisí od kvality lokálneho OSM mapovania — ale aj tak je to najkomplexnejší voľne dostupný pohľad na globálnu sieť, aký som zatiaľ videl.

Skúste si:

https://opengridworks.com/power-plants

The Next El Niño Could Lock Earth Into a Hotter Climate - Inside Climate News
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/25042026/el-nino-earth-warming/

Even a moderately strong El Niño during the next 12 to 18 months could drive the average global temperature to about 1.7 degrees Celsius above the preindustrial level, climate scientist James Hansen told Inside Climate News. Hansen doubts the world will meaningfully cool back down to below the 1.5 degree Celsius mark after the El Niño fades.

Climate impacts amplified by strong El Niños keep hitting the same vulnerable regions, may be more widespread than previously thought and can persist long after the tropical Pacific cools, according to an El Niño study published December 2025 in Nature Communications.

The study concluded that “super El Niños” are not just passing weather events, but more like climate shocks that can push parts of the Earth system into new states, co-author Jong-Seong Kug wrote in an email.

The study’s definition of a super El Niño is when the sea surface temperature anomaly in the tropical Pacific “exceeds 2 standard deviations above normal”—not an ordinary fluctuation, but more of a systemic warning sign.

The impacts are clustered in areas known to be sensitive to long-distance climate connections and regions “that are already prone to climate regime shifts,” wrote Kug, a climate researcher at Seoul National University in South Korea.

There are only three super El Niños on record: in 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16. All of them contributed to regime shifts in regional ocean temperatures, leading to unprecedented marine heat waves that destroyed or damaged coral reefs and caused mass die-offs and starvation among many marine organisms, from starfish to seabirds and marine mammals.

Those impacts, as well as changes in drought and extreme heat over land areas, persisted for years and could shift some regional patterns for decades, according to the study.

“Extreme heat intensity roughly doubles at 2 degrees Celsius of global warming, and quadruples at 3 degrees, relative to 1.5 degrees increase in average global temperatures.” The average 2 meter height air temperature over land in the northern hemisphere has already risen + 2.3 degrees C since pre-industrial times. It will likely reach + 3 degrees C by about 2030 and + 4 degrees C by 2040.

“The number of days each year when it is simply too hot to work may rise to 250 in much of South Asia, tropical Sub-Saharan Africa and parts of Central and South America.”

Extreme heat is pushing agrifood systems to the brink worldwide
https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/extreme-heat-is-pushing-agrifood-systems-to-the-brink-worldwide/en

Logging, murder and money: can Mexico’s ancient forests be saved from the cartels? | Deforestation | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2026/apr/28/mexico-environment-logging-cartels-sierra-tarahumara-forests

In the Sierra Tarahumara, gangs ‘disappear’ those who resist their lucrative illegal tree-felling operations

‘The damage is done’: global oil crisis has changed fossil fuel industry for ever, IEA chief says | Oil | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/apr/24/global-oil-crisis-changed-fossil-fuel-industry-for-ever-iea-chief-fatih-birol

The oil crisis triggered by the Iran war has changed the fossil fuel industry for ever, turning countries away from fossil fuels to secure energy supplies, the world’s leading energy economist said.

Fatih Birol, the executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), also said that, despite pressure, the UK should forgo much of its potential North Sea expansion.

Speaking exclusively to the Guardian, Birol said a key effect of the US-Israel war on Iran was that countries would lose trust in fossil fuels and demand for them would reduce.

“Their perception of risk and reliability will change. Governments will review their energy strategies. There will be a significant boost to renewables and nuclear power and a further shift towards a more electrified future,” he said. “And this will cut into the main markets for oil.”

GLOBAL TEMPERATURE INCREASE PAST 3 YEARS WORST-CASE

By IPCC AR6, WG1, SPM temperature scenarios 2023, 2024 and 2025 are worst-case warming scenarios.

Figure AR6 WG1 | Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis
https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/figures/summary-for-policymakers/figure-spm-8

Ember energy just dropped new report on how the 1970s energy crises decoupled economic growth from fossil fuels but not from electricity.

Global oil demand per capita peaked in 1979 and has never recovered.

Makes for a fascinating reading.

The New Twin Fossil Shock | Ember
https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/the-new-twin-fossil-shock/

Bloomberg

China’s exports of electric vehicles and hybrids more than doubled in March to a record as the global energy shock stemming from the Iran war renewed interest in EVs

Guest post: How declining cloudiness is accelerating global warming - Carbon Brief
https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-how-declining-cloudiness-is-accelerating-global-warming/

“For the past two decades, low-level cloud cover has been declining, increasing the amount of sunlight absorbed by Earth and amplifying global warming.

As global temperatures have reached record highs in recent years, there has been concern that the decline in cloudiness may be enhancing warming more than previously expected.

In a new study, published in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Letters, we investigate how the decline in global cloudiness affects the Earth’s “energy imbalance” – the difference between absorbed solar energy and heat radiated into space that results in global warming.

This imbalance has more than doubled over the past 20 years, as greenhouse gases have trapped more heat in the atmosphere.

We find that, since 2003, the decrease of cloudiness has been responsible for half of the increase of Earth’s energy imbalance.”

Earth's Greatest Enemy
https://earthsgreatestenemy.com/

A documentary exposé of the world's biggest—and most unaccountable—polluter: the US military. Learn the environmental cost of having a military Empire with Abby Martin.

Exempt from international climate agreements and rarely scrutinized in mainstream reporting, the Pentagon is the world’s single largest institutional polluter—spewing carbon, contaminating water, and scarring landscapes across the globe. Combining investigative journalism, striking visuals, and stories from impacted communities, this film challenges audiences to rethink the hidden costs of a global military empire and its planetary consequences. Provocative, urgent, and eye-opening, this is a documentary that will change how you see both the military and environmentalism.

US Empire Will DESTROY The World | With Abby Martin
https://youtu.be/AvWoBAd6l-8?si=Eod5oG68ztjiWviu

Z cyklu #doomed

“We find that, since 2003, the decrease of cloudiness has been responsible for half of the increase of Earth’s energy imbalance. Analysing the drivers of global changes to cloud cover, we find that the decrease in cloudiness over the past two decades has been primarily driven by humans, rather than being caused by natural variations in Earth’s climate…

Our research finds that about 40% of the low-level cloud decrease since 2003 was driven by warming of the ocean surface – in other words, the cloud feedback process. This is followed by the effects of greenhouse gases (21%) and aerosols (14%).”

Guest post: How declining cloudiness is accelerating global warming - Carbon Brief
https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-how-declining-cloudiness-is-accelerating-global-warming/

Reduced economic activity caused by the current Iran war has not been sufficient to offset the surge in CO₂ emissionsgenerated by the conflict. While economic slowdowns typically lead to modest declines in emissions, the scale of disruption in this case has been relatively limited on a global level.

At the same time, the war has produced a sharp and concentrated spike in emissions from infrastructure destruction, fires, and intensified military operations, resulting in a clear net increase in CO₂ output. A key reason is that war-related emissions are largely additive rather than substitutive. Military fuel use, explosions, and the burning of oil and buildings introduce new emissions on top of ongoing civilian and industrial activity, rather than replacing it. Moreover, the destruction of infrastructure creates a pipeline of future emissions, as rebuilding cities, roads, and energy systems requires large amounts of carbon-intensive materials like cement and steel. These delayed emissions often outweigh any short-term reductions from decreased economic activity.

In addition, the war is triggering indirect effects that further raise emissions, such as shifts toward dirtier energy sources, increased fossil fuel investment for energy security, and longer transportation routes due to regional instability. Historical patterns from other conflicts show that even when emissions dip briefly during periods of disruption, they tend to rebound and exceed prior levels during recovery and reconstruction. Overall, the evidence indicates that the Iran war is contributing to a net increase in emissions both immediately and over the longer term, rather than being offset by reduced economic output.

https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1AiasFSuCW/

J Pecho
https://www.facebook.com/share/p/174EXH86pV/

O klimatickej kríze sa dnes hovorí čoraz menej. Nie preto, že by sa globálna situácia nejako zlepšila, ale preto, že ju z verejného priestoru vytlačili iné témy. Vojny, konflikty, politický chaos, škandály, nekonečný boj o pozornosť. Klíma sa medzitým ďalej mení, a to stále rýchlejšie, bez ohľadu na to, čo je práve na titulke.

To je na tom možno najznepokojujúcejšie. Nie samotné ticho v médiách, ale ticho v spoločnosti. Akoby sme si zvykli, že horúčavy, sucho, požiare či extrémne výkyvy počasia už jednoducho patria k novému normálu. Akoby stačilo prestať o probléme hovoriť a problém sa tým vyriešil.

Lenže nič sa nevyriešilo. Klimatická kríza neodišla na inú planétu. Len sa už nezmestí do rytmu každodenného spravodajstva. A to je veľmi nebezpečné. Keď téma ustúpi, ustúpi aj tlak na politikov, firmy a inštitúcie. Ustúpi ochota konať. Ustúpi pocit naliehavosti.

Klimatická kríza nepotrebuje, aby bola trendovou témou. Potrebuje, aby sme ju brali vážne aj vtedy, keď už nie je úplne „nová“. Nemyslím si, že potrebujeme viac paniky. Skôr viac sústredenia, vytrvalosti a ochoty nestratiť túto tému zo zreteľa.

Klimatická kríza nezmizla. Len sme sa ju, žiaľ, naučili vnímať ako menej naliehavú, než v skutočnosti je.

The planet is overheating. Why is the news looking away? | Grist
https://grist.org/language/global-heating-climate-news-drought-chaos/

30mich poslech

Jedenáct nejteplejších let na Zemi. Zpráva OSN ukazuje, jak lidé vychýlili planetu z rovnováhy • RESPEKT
https://www.respekt.cz/podcasty/jedenact-nejteplejsich-let-na-zemi-zprava-osn-ukazuje-jak-lide-vychylili-planetu-z-rovnovahy

S Radimem Tolaszem o dosluhujících oceánech i cestě z klimatické krize ve světle výroční zprávy o stavu klimatu od Světové meteorologické organizace (WMO).

limatická krize nikam nezmizela, jakkoliv by si to asi každý pozemšťan přál. Naopak. Vědci získaná a ověřená fakta hovoří jasně. Lidé narušili křehkou rovnováhu pozemského systému a důsledky pociťujeme všichni. Teplota roste a související dopady včetně extrémních projevů počasí sílí. Na konkrétní projevy upozorňuje nová zpráva o stavu globálního klimatu za rok 2025 od Světové meteorologické organizace.

SAMOTNÁ ZPRÁVA KE STAŽENÍ zde: State of the Global Climate 2025

State of the Global Climate 2025
https://library.wmo.int/records/item/69807-state-of-the-global-climate-2025?offset