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    TUHOKlimaticka zmena / Destroying the Future Is the Most Cost-Effective


    "Given the sheer enormity of climate change, it’s okay to be depressed, to grieve. But please, don’t stay there too long. Join me in pure, unadulterated, righteous anger."


    "I don’t want your hope. I don’t want you to be hopeful. ... I want you to act. Once you start to act, the hope is everywhere."

    "Our best scientists tell us insistently that a calamity is unfolding, that the life-support systems of the Earth are being damaged in ways that threaten our survival. Yet in the face of these facts we carry on as usual."

    Rostouci hladiny oceanu, zmena atmosferickeho proudeni, zmeny v distribuci srazek a sucha. Zmeny karbonoveho, fosforoveho a dusikoveho cyklu, okyselovani oceanu. Jake jsou bezpecnostni rizika a jake potencialni klady dramatickych zmen fungovani zemskeho systemu?
    Ale take jak funguji masove dezinformacni kampane ropneho prumyslu a boj o verejne mineni na prahu noveho klimatickeho rezimu post-holocenu.
    rozbalit záhlaví
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    TADEAS: letosek budou trendem sojovy boby

    "Australia's largest ammonia plant will be shut for two months to repair damage caused by a power outage, amidst a global supply crunch for the vital fertiliser and explosives ingredient."

    Australia's top fertiliser input plant shuts for 2 months
    https://www.boilingcold.com.au/glitch-shuts-australias-biggest-maker-of-v/
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Next up as a second-order effect of Trump's Iranian adventure: mass famine.

    And I mean mass:.if the straits of Hormuz don't open again soon, about half the global calories will disappear.

    You read that right. You see, the planting season in the northern hemisphere is about to start, and you can't negotiate with seeds.

    THE NITROGEN TRAP - Shanaka Anslem Perera
    https://substack.com/home/post/p-191106427
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    P Worms
    https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1AmdTujaWZ/

    There's been much discussion of the impact on energy systems of the closure of the Persian Gulf, but rather less than I would have expected of the - to my mind - more alarming impact on several kinds of fertiliser and other feedstocks of the global food system. Without going into details, modelling suggests that will throw several hundred million more people into food insecurity.

    Crops need fertility to grow, and in the usual industrial farming systems that dominate the planet, those fertilisers must come from fossil fuels (my tribe of agroecologists has long shown that different production systems can generate more food while damaging soil and biodiversity less with only a fraction of those inputs, yet here we are - the reasons why is a discussion for another day). But plants also need water, and here this year, the problems linked to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz risk being compounded by a phenomenon called El Niño. This redistributes heat from the Western to the eastern Pacific that is then released to the atmosphere, creating a warming pulse that leads to drought conditions across much of the world and weaker monsoons in places like India.

    On top of that, there is rising evidence that the climate forcing - i.e. the amount of global heating we get from a doubling of CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere - has been seriously underestimated over the past decades: instead of being about 2-3°C, it's more in the region of 4-5°C (the paper i'm sharing here details the reasons).

    That higher forcing is a problem for the medium term.. But in the short term, the climate system through El Niño willi amplify the horrors about to be unleashed on the food system by Trump’s war of choice.


    Super El Nino? Super Warming is the Main Issue.
    https://jimehansen.substack.com/p/super-el-nino-super-warming-is-the
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    Informal Institutions in Policy Implementation : Comparing Low Carbon Policies in China and Russia
    Anna Korppoo, Iselin Stensdal, Marius Korsnes


    "At a time of global climate crisis, this crucial book examines the prospects for implementing low-carbon policies in the two global superpowers of China and Russia, focusing on the role of informal institutions in achieving reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Chapters shed light on how informal institutions function and work in practice, how and why they take shape and how they influence formal low-carbon policies. Forensically examining five critical cases relating to Chinese and Russian institutions, this book demonstrates how informal institutions can both support and obstruct the achievement of formal policy goals. Through comparisons within and between each country, it shows how these dynamics differ and offers key hypothesis on the role of these institutions in policy implementation. Comprehensive and incisive, this book will be important reading for scholars researching public policy in China and Russia, particularly those specialising in environmental science and politics. The practical insights derived from new case studies will also be useful for policymakers working on climate mitigation policy"-- Provided by publisher

    Informal Institutions in Policy Implementation : Comparing Low Carbon Policies in China and Russia - Anna’s Archive
    https://annas-archive.gd/md5/b2183bbd0083aa22b3f3767acdb4178b
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    New book incoming

    Climate, Hydrocarbons, Sanctions: Perspectives on the Russian Arctic Hardcover – 16 April 2026

    by Arild Moe (Author), Anna Korppoo (Author)

    This timely book addresses the impact of global energy trends and rapid climate change on the Arctic’s increasing role in Russia’s hydrocarbon-based economy in the new geopolitical landscape. Arild Moe and Anna Korppoo utilise new data to provide a comprehensive understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of Russia’s Arctic development strategy and its economic underpinning, with its emphasis on hydrocarbon extraction and exports.
    Chapters analyse the potential developments that may impact Russia’s future activities in the Arctic. Key topics include scientific progress, the role of climate policy and public concerns, the economic foundation of mega-projects in the Arctic, and the repercussions of sanctions after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Moe and Korppoo offer key insights, arguing that geopolitics and the energy transition away from fossil fuels will be pressures Russia must eventually confront.
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    China’s Renewable Energy Revolution Is a Huge Mess That Might Save the World
    A global onslaught of cheap Chinese green power is upending everything in its path. No one is ready for its repercussions.

    There’s a particular kind of sci-fi nerd who equates fusion tech with utopia. If we could only harness the engine of the stars, it would uncork near limitless energy and neatly sweep away a whole mess of humanity’s problems. But how would that work exactly? What would the transition look like?
    You don’t have to wonder. It’s happening now. Solar panels and wind turbines capture the fusion of the sun and convert it to electricity. And at the scale and pace that China is producing them, plenty of things stand to be swept away—including, quite possibly, the once seemingly intractable problems of energy poverty and fossil-fuel dependence. In 2024, the total installed electricity capacity of the planet—every coal, gas, hydro, and nuclear plant and all of the renewables—was about 10 terawatts. The Chinese solar supply chain can now pump out 1 terawatt of panels every year.
    In China itself, vast energy megabases combining solar and wind stretch for miles in the country’s western deserts and Tibetan highlands, each producing the power of multiple nuclear plants and connecting to population centers in the country’s east via ultrahigh-voltage power lines. At the smaller end of the scale, panels have sprouted on rooftops all over the more populated eastern half of the country, thanks to policies that standardize the process and paperwork required to install and tie them into the grid. Huge factories, urban apartment buildings, and humble village homes are plastered with panels. In Europe, Chinese-made photovoltaic panels are so cheap that they cost less than fencing materials. Globally, the glut of solar has lowered the average cost of generating electricity to 4 cents a kilowatt hour—perhaps the cheapest form of energy ever.

    https://archive.is/20260305231230/https://www.wired.com/story/china-renewable-energy-revolution/#selection-947.0-969.864
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    Cina / China

    Implementing a Low-Carbon Future
    Climate Leadership in Chinese Cities
    Weila Gong
    Studies in Comparative Energy and Environmental Politics

    - Based on extensive interviews with government officials and policy practitioners across different levels of government in China
    - Introduces the conceptual framework of "bridging leadership" to explain uneven subnational climate policy engagement
    - Meticulous process tracing of local climate policymaking in agenda setting, policy formation, and implementation in four low-carbon pilot cities


    https://global.oup.com/academic/product/implementing-a-low-carbon-future-9780197757420?cc=sk&lang=en
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Revealed: the world’s worst mega-leaks of methane driving global heating | Greenhouse gas emissions | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/mar/17/revealed-world-worst-methane-leaks-global-heating

    The world’s worst mega-leaks of the potent greenhouse gas methane in 2025 have been revealed by an analysis of satellite data.

    The super-polluting plumes from oil and gas facilities have a colossal heating impact on the climate but often result from poor maintenance and can be simple to fix. The assessment found dozens of mega-leaks, each having the same global heating impact as a coal-fired power station.

    The researchers said it was “maddening” that such easy action to fight the climate crisis was not being taken, and said people should be angry. Stopping the leaks can even be free, given that captured gas can be sold – methane is the “natural gas” that fires power stations.

    The mega-leaks occur across the world, but the top 25 list, produced by the Stop Methane Project at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), is dominated by facilities in Turkmenistan. The scale of methane leaks in the secretive and authoritarian state has previously been described as “mind-boggling”.

    Super-polluting plumes were also seen in the US, the largest detected in 2025 occurring in Texas and leaking 5.5 tonnes of methane per hour, equivalent to running about a million fuel-guzzling SUVs. Venezuela (five) and Iran (three) also had multiple mega-leaks from state-owned facilities.

    The Stop Methane Project also analysed super-polluting plumes from landfill sites, where rotting organic waste can release huge volumes of methane when not well managed. The worst sites ranged across the world, from Turkey to Algeria and Malaysia to the US.
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    but... robots&datacenters

    Planetary Solvency – finding our balance with nature
    https://actuaries.org.uk/planetary-solvency

    The global economy could face a 50% loss in GDP between 2070 and 2090, unless immediate policy action on risks posed by the climate crisis is taken. Populations are already impacted by food system shocks, water insecurity, heat stress and infectious diseases. If unchecked, mass mortality, mass displacement, severe economic contraction and conflict become more likely.

    ‘Planetary Solvency – finding our balance with nature’ is the IFoA’s fourth report in collaboration with climate scientists. The report develops a framework for global risk management to address these risks and show how this approach can support future prosperity. It also shows how a lack of realistic risk messaging to guide policy decisions has led to slower action than is needed.

    The report proposes a novel Planetary Solvency risk dashboard, to provide decision-useful risk information to support policymakers to drive human activity within the finite bounds of the planet that we live on.

    HBRSqcja-AAErb-Q
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    je libo být vařenou žábou?

    Significant acceleration of global warming since 2015 — Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
    https://www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/latest-news/significant-acceleration-of-global-warming-since-2015

    HCv-Gj-JYW0-AARdse
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Humanity heating planet faster than ever before, study finds | Climate crisis | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/mar/06/humanity-heating-planet-faster-than-ever-before-study-finds

    global heating accelerated from a steady rate of less than 0.2C per decade between 1970 and 2015 to about 0.35C per decade over the past 10 years. The rate is higher than scientists have seen since they started systematically taking the Earth’s temperature in 1880.

    “If the warming rate of the past 10 years continues, it would lead to a long-term exceedance of the 1.5C (2.7F) limit of the Paris agreement before 2030,” said Stefan Rahmstorf, a scientist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and co-author of the study.

    Extreme heat in recent years has been pushed higher by natural fluctuations – such as solar cycles, volcanic eruptions, and the weather pattern El Niño – that have led scientists to question whether startling temperature readings are outliers or the result of an increase in global heating.

    The researchers applied a noise-reduction method to filter out the estimated effect of nonhuman factors in five major datasets that scientists have compiled to gauge the Earth’s temperature. In each of them, they found an acceleration in global heating emerged in 2013 or 2014.
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Global sea levels have been underestimated due to poor modelling, research suggests | Oceans | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/mar/04/global-sea-levels-underestimated-poor-modelling-research

    The new calculations reveal that following a relative sea level rise of 1 metre, it is estimated that 37% more coastal areas will fall below sea level, affecting up to 132 million individuals.

    “If sea level is higher for your particular island or coastal city than was previously assumed, the impacts from sea level rise will happen sooner than projected before,” said Minderhoud.

    Describing the discrepancy as an “interdisciplinary blind spot”, the scientists are concerned that a large proportion of the studies analysed in their research, which they believe are inaccurate, are referenced in the most recent climate change reports published by the IPCC.
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    TADEAS: related

    Antarctica just saw fastest glacier collapse ever recorded
    Antarctica’s Hektoria Glacier lost nearly half its ice in just 2 months after lifting off a flat seabed and shattering apart
    Such events could accelerate global sea level rise much faster than predicted

    Antarctica just saw the fastest glacier collapse ever recorded | ScienceDaily
    https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2026/02/260226042454.htm
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Suicide (Paperback) – JUST RELEASED – Revolution in the 21st Century
    https://rev21.earth/product/suicide/

    From a cell in Wayland Prison, Roger Hallam—farmer, researcher, and co-founder of Just Stop Oil—delivers a searing indictment of a legal system that punishes those who resist, while protecting those who destroy. In July 2024, Hallam was dragged from a British courtroom for refusing to stay silent about the climate crisis. For “conspiracy to cause a public nuisance,” he was sentenced to five years in prison, the harshest punishment for civil disobedience in the UK in modern British history. The case made front-page news and drew global outcry.

    Suicide is part memoir, part political reckoning. Drawing on Hallam’s award-winning research and experience representing himself in four Crown Court trials, it lays bare the moral and legal failures of a society sleepwalking into catastrophe. From climate science and the right of necessity, to the collapse of democratic norms and the illusions of secular reason, this is a radical call to rethink justice, truth, and duty in the face of extinction.
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    A New Calculation of Global Trends. Are we Close to Collapse?
    https://senecaeffect.substack.com/p/a-new-calculation-of-global-trends

    Here, Berndt Warm describes an update based on the “World3” model, directly based on the German case and on the idea that motor vehicles are a “proxy” for the whole economic system.

    Warm’s main result is shown at the beginning of this post. The world’s industrial system appears to be at the peak, while the global decline of population is expected to start around 2030. Don’t take this, or any other model-based scenarios, as prophecies; they are extrapolations of the existing data based on reasonable assumptions.

    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    R Hallam

    Isn't this also treason - only publish a "partial" version of a report of the greatest ever threat to the UK state? Again - just saying - obviously people will say in 2026 calling it treason is bonkers, but then in 2036 won't people be saying it's bonkers that anyone cannot see that it is treason?
    "On that, the UK’s Joint Intelligence Committee, on which heads of MI5 and MI6 sit, would surely agree. Last month, a partial version of its national security assessment of global biodiversity loss was published, and it came with a stark warning: some ecosystems will start to collapse “by 2030 or sooner”, posing an immediate threat to national security, prosperity, food systems and public health. There won’t be enough water for people to drink or food to eat; livelihoods will be lost; displacement and migration will accelerate, and geopolitical competition for resources will intensify."

    Biodiversity collapse threatens UK security, intelligence chiefs warn | Biodiversity | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/jan/20/biodiversity-collapse-threatens-uk-security-intelligence-chiefs-warn
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    French prosecutors intervene in defense of TotalEnergies in climate trial
    https://www.lemonde.fr/en/environment/article/2026/02/17/french-prosecutors-intervene-in-defense-of-totalenergies-in-climate-trial_6750572_114.html

    In France's first major climate trial against an oil and gas giant, opening Thursday, February 19 at the Paris Court of Justice, TotalEnergies will receive unexpected support from the prosecutor's office. Since 2020, a coalition of advocacy groups (Notre Affaire à Tous, Sherpa, France Nature Environnement) and the City of Paris have asked the courts to require TotalEnergies to drastically reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by cutting its hydrocarbon production, in order to comply with the Paris Agreement target of limiting global warming to 1.5°C.

    The case is based on France's law on due diligence, enacted in 2017. It requires companies with more than 5,000 employees in France (or over 10,000 worldwide) to implement a plan to identify risks and prevent serious violations of human rights, health and the environment linked to their activities and those of their subsidiaries, suppliers and subcontractors.

    In an unusual move, the prosecutor's office intervened on Tuesday, February 3, as a "joined party," aligning with TotalEnergies. Such intervention by the prosecutor's office in ongoing civil proceedings is extremely rare and justified only when issues of general interest are at stake.

    According to the brief, reviewed by Le Monde, the prosecutor's office, like the multinational, considers that "the scope of the due diligence law does not extend to climate change." It argues that global warming is a "worldwide phenomenon," that it "concerns everyone, but is essentially the responsibility of the international community and states." It calls for a restrictive interpretation of the law. According to its conclusions, "it cannot be up to large French companies alone to bear a global obligation to protect human rights and fundamental freedoms. The same applies to the environment."
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    The Evil Genius Of The Global Food System | Richard Hames Meets Charles C. Mann
    https://youtu.be/QV99s0Ny6tg?si=2ZQQePvLti8tqA1u


    Richard Hames presents a new show about the systems that make modern life possible. We’ve made the planet into a giant machine, filled with the strangest stories – and now it’s all coming apart. It’s time to Do Your Own Research.

    There’s nothing in the world more important than the food system. The twentieth century was scarred by enormous famines – and, like the one in Gaza, they are still deliberately engineered. But since the 1970s, the absolute number of deaths from famine has dropped by over 90%.

    On a global scale, we now make so much food that farmers will sometimes destroy it just to keep the prices high.

    How is there so much food? How did we get to a world where, globally, people are more likely to be obese than underweight? And, amid all these calories, how are so many people still malnourished? Why is it suddenly all so expensive? And is it all about to come crashing down?

    Charles C. Mann explains the historical power of bird shit, the strange reason Indian scientists put wheat in a nuclear reactor, and how the genius who made modern farming possible also invented the gas that was used to murder millions in the Holocaust.
    TADEAS
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    ‘Daunting but doable’: Europe urged to prepare for 3C of global heating | Climate crisis | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/feb/16/europe-climate-advisory-board-3c-global-heating

    Maarten van Aalst, a member of the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change (ESABCC), said the continent was already “paying a price” for its lack of preparation but that adapting to a hotter future was in part “common sense and low-hanging fruit”.

    “It is a daunting task, but at the same time quite a doable task. It’s not rocket science,” said van Aalst, who used to lead the climate centre at the International Red Cross and Red Crescent and is now the director general of the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI).

    The ESABCC describes current efforts to adapt to rising temperatures as “insufficient, largely incremental [and] often coming too late” in a new report that advises officials to prepare for a world 2.8-3.3C hotter than preindustrial levels by 2100.

    ...

    Weather extremes in Europe in recent years have at times surprised climate scientists with their strength and adaptation experts with their lethality as rising temperatures have warped the climate.

    Heavy rains supercharged by climate breakdown killed 134 people in Germany’s Ahr valley in 2021 and 229 people in the Valencia region of Spain in 2024. Across the continent, summer heat kills many tens of thousands of people each year, with studies attributing between half and two-thirds of the death toll to the rise in temperatures caused by fossil fuel pollution. Last year’s wildfires, meanwhile, torched more of Europe than scientists have ever recorded.

    Last week, Portugal was urged to draw up climate adaptation plans as the country was hit by an unprecedented series of storms that killed at least 16 people and caused an estimated €775m (£675m) of damage.
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    TADEAS: lol

    the EU’s scientific advisers urged Europe to prepare for a world that is 3C hotter by the end of the century – double the level of global heating that world leaders promised to aim for under the 2015 Paris agreement – and stress-test even more extreme scenarios.

    France’s national adaptation strategy, published last year, seeks to prepare it for a near-apocalyptic 4C of global warming.

    “We are now at a point where these events are occurring at a speed and with a force that we have never seen before,” Barbut told LCI. “Clearly, what we need to do now is to put adaptation policies in place that will enable us to build resilience in our territories.”
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