TADEAS: doplnim obrazek, u nas byla anomalie +5 °C


Copernicus: January 2025 was the warmest on record globally, despite an emerging La Niña | Copernicus
https://climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-january-2025-was-warmest-record-globally-despite-emerging-la-nina

Hottest January on record mystifies climate scientists | Climate crisis | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/feb/06/hottest-january-on-record-climate-scientists-global-temperatures-high

January marked the 18th month of the past 19 to record global-average surface temperatures above the 1.5C preindustrial level.

Climate scientists had expected this exceptional spell to subside after a warming El Niño event peaked in January 2024 and conditions shifted to an opposing, cooling La Niña phase.

But the heat has lingered at record or near-record levels, prompting debate about what other factors could be driving it to the top end of expectations.

Julien Nicolas, a climate scientist at Copernicus, told Agence France-Presse: “This is what makes it a bit of a surprise: you’re not seeing this cooling effect, or temporary brake at least, on the global temperature that we were expecting to see.”


One theory is that a global shift to cleaner shipping fuels in 2020 accelerated warming by reducing sulphur emissions that make clouds more mirror-like and reflective of sunlight.

In December, another peer-reviewed paper looked at whether a reduction in low-lying clouds had let more heat reach the Earth’s surface. “It’s really still a matter of debate,” Nicolas said.

TUHO: Bezos následuje Muska a Trumpa ("klimatická změna neexistuje, pojďme vrtat, baby, vrtat a pálit") a stopl tenhle důležitý projekt:

Jeff Bezos’s $10bn philanthropic fund has stopped backing the world’s leading voluntary climate standard setter, following rising scrutiny over its influence on the body, in a move seen as the billionaire’s latest effort to curry favour with US President Donald Trump.

Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi) je globální iniciativa, která pomáhá firmám stanovit vědecky podložené cíle pro snižování emisí skleníkových plynů v souladu s Pařížskou dohodou. Jejím cílem je zajistit, aby podniky přispívaly k omezení globálního oteplování na maximálně 1,5 °C nad předindustriální úrovní. Zakladateli jsou CDP (Carbon Disclosure Project), UN Global Compact, World Resources Institute (WRI) a WWF, do iniciativy je zapojeno 4 tisíce firem.

Žádná klimatická změna není. Bezos zastavil penězovod | Newstream
https://www.newstream.cz/leaders/klimaticka-zmena-neni-bezos-s-partnerkou-zastavili-penezovod
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https://www.ft.com/content/c3bf3f5f-afa2-44ce-8314-18ad321cd983

ROGER_WILCO:

Climate change target of 2C is ‘dead’, says renowned climate scientist | Climate crisis | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/feb/04/climate-change-target-of-2c-is-dead-says-renowned-climate-scientist

“The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPPC) defined a scenario which gives a 50% chance to keep warming under 2C – that scenario is now impossible,” he said. “The 2C target is dead, because the global energy use is rising, and it will continue to rise.” The new analysis said global heating is likely to reach 2C by 2045, unless solar geoengineering is deployed.

...

A key focus has been on emissions from shipping. For decades, the sulphate particles produced by ships burning fuel have blocked some sunlight from reaching the Earth’s surface, suppressing temperatures. But in 2020, new anti-pollution regulations came into force, sharply cutting the level of the aerosol particles. This led to more heat from the sun reaching the surface, which scientists measure as watts a square meter (W/m2).

Hansen’s team’s estimate of the impact of this – 0.5W/m2 – is significantly higher than five other recent studies, which ranged from 0.07 to 0.15 W/m2, but would explain the anomalous heat. Hansen’s team used a top-down approach, looking at the change in the reflectivity over key parts of the ocean and ascribing that to the reductions in shipping emissions. The other studies used bottom-up approaches to estimate the increase in heat.

“Both approaches are useful and often complementary,” said Dr Gavin Schmidt, director of Nasa’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies. “But I think in this case, Hansen’s approach is too simple and doesn’t factor in changes in Chinese emissions, or internal variability.”

The new study also argues that the planet’s climate sensitivity to rising carbon emissions has been underestimated, partly because of the underestimation of the impact of reduced shipping emissions.

Global Warming has accelerated: are the United Nations and the public well-informed?

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/epdf/10.1080/00139157.2025.2434494

Jan Umsonst https://www.facebook.com/taoist.attack/posts/3422485977881946
·
A look on the Southern Ocean marine heatwaves - doesn't look good, as they are also intensifying...
Our main problem: ocean heat uptake remained even during the El Nino 2023/24 on record levels - insane the numbers of the last years!
Important for this post: During La Ninas the oceans take up much more heat than during El Ninos.
The central to eastern tropical Pacific being colder than normal during La NInas supports ocean heat uptake over the abnormal cold areas. During El Ninos the opposite happens as the oceans loose vast amounts of heat to the atmosphere during El Ninos when the central to eastern tropical Pacific is warmer than normal.
The high rates of ocean heat uptake during the triple La Nina from 2020 to 2022 are thought to be one reason behind the exceptional ocean surface warming during 2023/24. Some of the take up heat resurfaced into the upper mixed layer during 2023/24 which caused this exceptional surface warming signal. The El Nino in 2023/24 played here a large role.
Still the signal of heat resurfacing had been exceptional.
But now we have the problem that ocean heat uptake did not decline or reversed during 2023/24 when we had the last El Nino emitting vast amounts of energy into the atmosphere.
The rates of ocean heat uptake had been similar in 2023/24 to 2020-22, which should not be possible, at least not back on back...
Lets talk about numbers...
The numbers of ocean heat uptake (IAP/CAS dataset) in 2021 of 15Zj, 2022 of 19Zj, 2023 of 16Zj and 2024 of 16ZJ (1) have to be seen in relation to these numbers:
Regardless of which estimate is used, there has been a two- to three- fold increase in the rate of increase in OHC since the late 1980s. For example, according to the IAP analy- sis, the OHC trend for 1958–1985 is 3.1 ± 0.5 ZJ yr−1, and since 1986, the OHC trend is 9.2 ± 0.5 ZJ yr−1 (Fig. 2). The IAP trend within 1958–1985 of 3.1 ± 0.5 ZJ yr−1 is higher than the previous release in Cheng et al. (2023) (2.3 ± 0.5 ZJ yr−1), mainly because the new inclusion of the bottle data bias correction. After 2007, with better global coverage of ocean subsurface data, OHC uncertainty is reduced. There is a significant warming trend of 10.8 ± 1.2 ZJ yr−1 and 10.3 ± 0.8 ZJ yr−1 from 2007–2023 for IAP/CAS and NCEI/NOAA (seasonal time series), respectively (Fig. 2). The NCEI three-month OHC estimate has a slightly stronger trend than the pentadal time series from 2005 to 2020, indicating the impact of sam- pling changes associated with the mapping approach. (2)
(1) New Record Ocean Temperatures and Related Climate Indicators in 2023"; https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00376-024-3378-5
(2) "Record High Temperatures in the Ocean in 2024"; https://link.springer.com/.../10.1007/s00376-025-4541-3...
These studies are important for what happens in the oceans (read them in the order):
(1) "New Record Ocean Temperatures and Related Climate Indichttps://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00376-024-3378-5
(2) "A Glimpse into the Future: The 2023 Ocean Temperature and Sea Ice Extremes in the Context of Longer-Term Climate Change "; https://journals.ametsoc.org/.../105/3/BAMS-D-23-0209.1.xml
(3) "Record High Temperatures in the Ocean in 2024"; https://link.springer.com/.../10.1007/s00376-025-4541-3...
(4) "Quantifying the acceleration of multidecadal global sea surface warming driven by Earth's energy imbalance"; https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/adaa8a
"Drivers of the 2023 record shattering marine heat extreme in the North Atlantic"; https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-5046018/v1

TADEAS:

New Record for Annual Increase in Keeling Curve Readings | The Keeling Curve
https://keelingcurve.ucsd.edu/2025/01/17/new-record-for-annual-increase-in-keeling-curve-readings/

“This record growth, it certainly got a boost from the 2023-2024 El Niño event, which also helped explain the record growth that we reported last May,” said Keeling. “Although this El Niño event ended early in 2024, it is often the case that El Niño events are associated with higher than normal CO2 growth extending into the northern hemisphere summer following the El Niño event.”

“This last year fit that pattern, but the CO2 growth might have been further boosted by wildfires in North and South America,” Keeling added.

The ultimate cause of the CO2 rise is the burning of fossil fuels, but the rise rate also fluctuates from year to year due to CO2 exchanges with the ocean and land ecosystems, including from fires. CO2 levels are not just at the highest level in millions of years, they are also rising at a record pace.

“These latest results further confirm that we are moving into uncharted territory faster than ever as the rise continues to accelerate,” said Keeling.

This analysis coincides with a new report from Keeling and the UK’s Met Office, which issues forecasts of the annual CO2 rise. Met Office researchers noted that the rise is now incompatible with scenarios used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to assess limiting long-term average global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial times.

“Limiting global warming to 1.5°C would require the CO2 rise to be slowing, but in reality the opposite is happening,” said Richard Betts, who leads the Met Office CO2 forecast team. “Even without the boost from El Niño last year, the CO2 rise driven by fossil fuel burning and deforestation would now be outpacing the IPCC’s 1.5°C scenarios.”

⚖️ Scientists prize neutrality – that doesn’t cut it any more. In 2025, they must fully back the climate movement
https://rogerhallam.com/scientists-prize-neutrality-that-doesnt-cut-it-any-more-in-2025-they-must-fully-back-the-climate-movement-2/

There are nearly 9 million scientists in the world, making up a tribe that is one of the most trusted groups on the planet. Imagine the noise they could make if they spoke with one voice; think of the impetus it would give climate activism. The UK courts have tried to silence climate scientists in the past few years, by keeping their expert testimony out of court cases. As we start out on the second quarter of the 21st century, let’s show them what we can really do.

Inevitably, there are those who demand impartiality from scientists, but being impartial doesn’t mean not telling the truth; it doesn’t mean playing down threats; and it certainly doesn’t mean keeping silent at a time of global emergency. Wanting to remain apolitical no longer cuts it. It is naive at the best of times, but this is now a matter of survival, not politics. So, throw your weight behind those groups and organisations fighting to tackle climate breakdown, work to bring colleagues on board, and use your influence in the best way you can to drive serious action. As we have said before, there are no grant-awarding committees on a dead planet, so it is time to choose which side of history you are on.

Odložím zde rozhovor s Leonem Simonsem (co-autor Global warming in the pipeline), zajímavá prezentace ohledně aerosolů a prudkého oteplení za poslední 2 roky, plná dat a vysvětlivek, jen tedy musím říct, že jsem měl problém poslouchat jeho přízvuk/artikulaci, ale co už.
2024 Was +1.6ºC! What's Next? with Leon Simons
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ii6vz1moBY4

SHEFIK:

The Paris Agreement was adopted in December 2015. According to various climate data analyses, the global temperature anomaly for that year was approximately 0.87°C (1.57°F) above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900 average). This information aligns with the data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service, which is part of the broader context of climate change tracking in relation to the Paris Agreement goals.

The social cost of carbon: Study finds current estimates omit key effects
The social cost of carbon—an important figure that global policymakers use to analyze the benefits of climate and energy policies—is too low, according to a study led by the University of California, Davis.
https://phys.org/news/2024-12-social-carbon-current-omit-key.amp

The International Energy Agency has revised their predictions for coal demand. Last year they said global demand would peak in 2023. This year they expect no peak in the next few years.

Global coal demand is set to plateau through 2027 - News - IEA
https://www.iea.org/news/global-coal-demand-is-set-to-plateau-through-2027

Aby měl ten Tykač vůbec pravdu s tím že uhlí je mrtvé

amok

Scientists sound alarm about terrifying ocean event that could bring global devastation | The Independent
https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/ocean-tipping-point-climate-change-b2657442.html