Goodbye 1936, Hello 2026!

July 2026: Hottest US Month Ever.

The climate skeptic talking point of 1936 has been dethroned. NASA says July 2026 is now the hottest month on record in the US, by a small margin, due to El Niño on top of long term warming. 1936 was an incredibly hot summer - many city all-time records were set and still exist from that year. But Zoom Out and there are two key points:

1. The heat was very concentrated mainly in the Dust Bowl and adjacent regions. That’s 1% of Earth’s surface.

2. In 1936 the Earth had both extreme heat and cold, but July 2026 has anomalous heat virtually EVERYWHERE. That’s the difference: it’s now warm EVERYWHERE, and it will only get warmer from here.

Hot summer economics
https://www.triodos.com/en/articles/2026/hot-summer-economics

Europe's heatwave this summer will cut EU GDP by around 1% in 2026, roughly €180 billion, matching the bloc's entire expected growth for the year, according to a new Triodos Bank report. An estimated 20,400 people died from heat-related causes across France, Germany, Spain and Italy in a single week in June, with wildfires having already burned more land by 30 July than in any full previous year on record.

France is projected to take the biggest economic hit, with GDP growth cut by 1.4 percentage points, potentially pushing an already weak forecast into a 0.6% contraction for 2026. The Netherlands faces near-stagnant growth after an 0.8-point loss. Poland, despite being highly exposed on paper, escapes largely unscathed this year simply because it has had fewer extreme-heat days than usual, while Spain and Italy, hit by the most hot days, are cushioned by decades of acclimatisation.

Labour productivity is the single largest driver of the losses, more than agriculture, energy or transport combined, with research showing measurable output drops once temperatures pass roughly 25–30°C, especially in outdoor and non-air-conditioned work.

The report's authors point to 17 July, when the European Commission proposed easing the trajectory of the EU's carbon-pricing emissions cap through the 2030s on competitiveness grounds, the same week wildfire and death tolls were hitting record levels. That, they argue, illustrates the loop they say Europe is now caught in: heat damages growth, policy loosens to protect growth, emissions rise, and the next heatwave costs more.

"We can now expect everything from yellow and orange air and failed crops to buckling railways and the forced shutdowns of nuclear plants due to low water."

"Water bombers, the air cavalry of wildfire fighting, buzz the treetops like air show stunt pilots as they save the day with surgical drops of water or orange retardant.

But what happens when those drops have no effect? When, as a pilot working the massive Gironde Fire just west of Bordeaux, France, described
( https://zeit.de/wissenschaft/2026-07/cap-ferret-frankreich-waldbrand-tourismus-urlaub ) it:

“The environment above the fire is so hot that my payload of 10,000 liters of water evaporates in the air.”? Mathieu Jomain, a commander and 26-year veteran in Gironde’s fire service, compared the fire’s intensity to “a meteorological nuclear bomb.”

"This is the new reality of wildfires in the 21st Century: they hit different. And, too often now, the water doesn’t hit at all.
From America to Algeria, dangerous blazes are occurring around the world, giving us a glimpse into an age ablaze We should all be asking the question: What will this age entail?


"Fire phenonemon"

We are witnessing, live and in person, a terrible convergence of prolonged drought and record-breaking temperatures across the Northern Hemisphere. It is a convergence expressed most emphatically by unfightable fires racing across tinder-dry landscapes, fanned by high winds that are, increasingly, generated by the fires themselves. Just as warm waters fuel hurricanes, hot landscapes alive with roaring fire energize a wildfire’s chimney-like central column by burning all available fuel—grassland, forests, and neighborhoods alike—with explosive speed, and irrepressible ferocity that can produce flames higher than a thirty-story building and radiant heat approaching 1,000 °C"

Roger Hallam - 1/2. The essence of humanist hubris is the...
https://www.facebook.com/share/1Dj2ZHHbah/

The essence of humanist hubris is the notion every problem can be solved - meaning we are not humans but gods. But, as we are about to discover, we are just human after all. We sit there and let people in charge fuck things up. And then there is no going back.

10 years of hubris gets you 10,000 years of climatic chaos. Not clever.

“What people are not getting is that we can’t turn this back – the CO2 to a large part remains in the air for thousands of years,” said Rahmstorf. “Some people think we can wait and, when it gets too bad, then we reduce emissions and things will get better again. People don’t realise that we can’t make it get better again. We can only prevent it from getting much worse.”

‘We can’t make it better again’: what Europe’s wildfires tell us about the climate crisis | Environment | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/jul/30/europe-wildfires-climate-crisis-heat-summer

Authorities in Poland were forced to shut down the Kozienice and Połaniec coal-fired power plants after critically low water levels in the Vistula River limited cooling water supplies. The disruption removed about 1.3GW of capacity from Poland’s power system.

Extreme heat breaks temperature records in central and eastern Europe | Extreme weather | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/aug/07/extreme-heat-breaks-temperature-records-central-eastern-europe

Well, this isn’t going to be... - Alt National Park Service
https://www.facebook.com/share/1KhzdT9qZx/

Well, this isn’t going to be good. We all know how this will likely go. The Supreme Court has announced that one of the first cases it will hear when its new term begins in October is a major climate change lawsuit. Boulder County, Colorado, is seeking millions of dollars from fossil fuel companies, including Suncor Energy, to help cover the costs of climate-related disasters like wildfires, extreme heat, and flooding. The county argues the companies hid the risks of fossil fuels while communities were left to deal with the consequences.

Price of olive oil expected to rise again as European crops feel the heat | Food & drink industry | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/aug/04/price-olive-oil-expected-rise-again-european-crops-heat-drought-wildfires

The European Union has cut harvest predictions on a whole menu of crops with expectations for sunflowers, essential for cooking oils, down by 7%. Meanwhile, grain maize is down 6% on the previous forecast and expectations for potatoes and soya beans have been trimmed by 3%.

However, some countries have been less badly hit than others with Romania, for example, seeing more rainfall and Italy’s wheat crop proving resilient.

The ASAJA agricultural trade body said direct damage from fire had hit orchards, vineyards, agricultural land and greenhouses – affecting citrus fruits, avocados, almonds, vineyards, vegetables and olive groves – while water stress and extreme temperatures had hit production of tomatoes and maize.

“While local production losses may reduce export volumes for some products,” a spokesperson said, the main concern was “higher production costs” rather than restrictions on international trade.

direct damage from fire had hit orchards, vineyards, agricultural land and greenhouses – affecting citrus fruits, avocados, almonds, vineyards, vegetables and olive groves – while water stress and extreme temperatures had hit production of tomatoes and maize.

“While local production losses may reduce export volumes for some products,” a spokesperson said, the main concern was “higher production costs” rather than restrictions on international trade.

Olive oil producers said they expected another surge in prices this year as growers struggled with a combination of extreme heat, drought and, in some cases, fires.

“2026 is just the beginning,” Professor @jrockstrom added. “It will inevitably get worse. It will get worse and worse and worse to the point where, I’m afraid, we’ll be passing the limits of adaptation.

https://archive.is/20260801123806/https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/29/world/europe/summer-heat-wave-fires-climate-change.html

based load

France Shuts Off More Nuclear Power as Heat Builds Across Europe - Bloomberg
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-30/france-shuts-off-more-nuclear-power-as-heat-builds-across-europe

❝ Electricite de France SA shut down the Golfech-2 nuclear reactor in southern France as a blistering heat wave pushes temperatures toward 40C across parts of Europe.

The Golfech shutdown is the latest in a record number of heat-related outages across France’s nuclear fleet this summer, curbing output from the backbone of Europe’s electricity system. EDF has also warned that the Tricastin plant could face production cuts overnight as soaring river temperatures constrain reactor cooling.

Many of France’s nuclear plants rely on river water for cooling before discharging the warmer water back into the river. Environmental regulations limit those discharges when river temperatures are already high, forcing reactors to reduce output.

“The heat wave is a big factor kicking in on French nuclear power,” said Christopher Kurish, portfolio manager at power trader Mind Energy in Denmark. “How long the heat will last is worrisome and if it escalates even more.”

French evening power prices during July have been higher than any other year on record, besides during the energy crisis of 2022. This evening they will hit about €200 per megawatt-hour, according to data from Epex Spot SE, up from a low of about €5 around noon.

Elsewhere, Hungary’s nuclear power plant Paks will cut capacity at block 2 by 50% on Thursday due to low water level of the Danube river, the fourth cut in capacity in two days.

At the same time, German wind power is also set to decline sharply overnight. The country’s fleet of wind farms could produce less than a gigawatt of power early Friday morning before recovering early next week, according to a Bloomberg model. ❞

❝ The Rhine River’s water levels risk dropping to an unprecedented low as heat waves grip Europe, creating a bottleneck for the delivery of coal and fuels inland while raising shipping costs.

Water levels at Kaub, a key chokepoint for shipments heading to southern Germany and Switzerland, have already fallen to 28 centimeters, the lowest since 2018, according to German federal data. Forecasts show the barge clearance level could decline even more this week, potentially reaching 24 centimeters on Friday, which would be the lowest in data going back to 1990.

The river, which snakes roughly 800 miles (1,290 kilometers) from Switzerland to the North Sea, carries resources including coal, oil products and iron ore, plus goods in containers. As well as impacting water networks, the heat and dryness that have hit the continent this year have stressed power systems, strained public health services and caused major wildfires.

The falling levels on the Rhine are already disrupting freight. The cost to ship diesel from Rotterdam to Karlsruhe — further inland from the closely watched Kaub chokepoint — has climbed to the highest since Bloomberg began compiling the data in 2009.

The situation is unlikely to improve soon with Europe facing another heat wave. Temperatures in Frankfurt are forecast to reach as high as 39C on Thursday, according to Atmospheric G2, while little rainfall is expected in the coming days.

“With every centimeter it’s getting more difficult,” said Florian Krekel at Germany’s WSV, which manages the country’s waterways. “There’s no rain in sight.”

The disruption is also showing up in coal logistics and supplies. Inventories of the fuel at ports in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp hub have risen about 75% since the spring, according to DBX Commodities Ltd., while barge loadings to move those supplies inland have been cut by three-quarters.

“The Rhine has effectively locked the door on inland coal delivery, and Rotterdam is where the trucks are queuing up,” DBX Commodities chief executive officer Alexandre Claude said. ❞


Heat Wave Drives Rhine to Record Lows, Disrupting Coal and Diesel Deliveries - Bloomberg
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-28/heat-pushes-rhine-toward-36-year-low-in-risk-to-energy-supplies

Overeno pres Groka: 'lehce alarmisticky, ale v zaklade pravdivy'

...

EXTRAORDINARY HEAT IN SOUTH AMERICA
MInd blowing MINIMUM 28.7 Georgetown
GUYANA HOTTEST NIGHT IN HISTORY

40c IN WINTER
Insane winter heat in BRAZIL with 38/40C
Next days HUNDREDS of records in Brazil,Bolivia,Paraguay,Peru,Ecuador and Colombia.
Absolutely crazy.

Extreme Temperatures Around The World on X: "EXTRAORDINARY HEAT IN SOUTH AMERICA MInd blowing MINIMUM 28.7 Georgetown GUYANA HOTTEST NIGHT IN HISTORY 40c IN WINTER Insane winter heat in BRAZIL with ...
https://x.com/i/status/2081494447703851219

NOAA has categorized the ongoing marine heatwave in the Mediterranean as a Category 4, extreme marine heatwave.

Sea surface temperatures are exceeding 5°C (9°F) above normal in several parts of the Mediterranean Sea, with water temperatures now reaching 31°C (88°F). This exceptional ocean heat is adding extra fuel to today’s severe thunderstorm outbreak across Italy and Croatia while boosting oppressive humidity.

This is now the fifth consecutive summer with severe or worse marine heatwave conditions in the Mediterranean Sea.

Colin McCarthy on X: "NOAA has categorized the ongoing marine heatwave in the Mediterranean as a Category 4, extreme marine heatwave. Sea surface temperatures are exceeding 5°C (9°F) above normal in ...
https://x.com/i/status/2079638817565536509

Jeste k tomu chlazeni, nejaly kontext z afriky

Power blackouts are spreading across parts of North Africa as temperatures soar above 40°C. This is why extreme heat is so dangerous. When the grid fails, millions can lose air conditioning, refrigeration and water pumping. Climate change is becoming an infrastructure crisis.

Peter Dynes on X: "Power blackouts are spreading across parts of North Africa as temperatures soar above 40°C. This is why extreme heat is so dangerous. When the grid fails, millions can lose air cond...
https://x.com/i/status/2079869548677718191

Blackouty overovany pres Groka, pry 'it's true'

SHEFIK: no je to zasadni otazka. ten porad dokola opakovany "problem" je nedostatecne komplexne formulovany a realizovany "boj o preziti" :)

teplo ke dlouho vyreseny problem, absence tepla je recentni inovace, milá evropa to jiste brzy prijme vstric existencialnim vyzvam :)


Claude:

It's deeply asymmetric, and the reason is thermodynamic rather than technological. Heat is what every energy conversion produces as waste — friction, combustion, metabolism, anything. You cannot avoid making heat. Cold is not a substance you can make; it's the absence of heat, so "making cold" means pumping heat up a gradient, which the second law says requires work. A caveman with sticks gets warmth for free as a byproduct. There is no equivalent trick for cooling.

So pre-industrial cultures had only indirect routes, all with hard limits:

• Evaporative cooling — wet cloth, porous clay pots (zeer), Persian windcatchers over water channels. Powerful but useless in humid air, which is exactly where cooling is most needed for survival.
• Radiative cooling to the night sky — Persian and Indian ice-makers filled shallow trays on clear dry nights and got ice even when the air stayed above freezing, because the sky at night is effectively a 3 K heat sink through the infrared window.
• Harvest and store — yakhchāls, European icehouses, and the 19th-century Boston ice trade shipping New England pond ice to Calcutta. This is thermal logistics, not refrigeration.
• Endothermic chemistry — dissolving saltpetre or salts in water; used to chill wine in Mughal India and Renaissance Italy. Small scale, consumable, expensive.
• Architecture — thermal mass, courtyards, shading, orientation. Reduces heat gain rather than removing heat.

Actual on-demand cooling arrived astonishingly late. Cullen demonstrated it in 1755, Perkins patented a vapour-compression cycle in 1834, Carré and Linde made it industrial in the 1860s–70s, and Carrier's 1902 machine — invented to control humidity in a printing plant, not for human comfort — began air conditioning. Fire predates that by roughly 800,000 years.

The demographic consequence is real: humid tropical regions stayed economically and population-wise constrained far longer than cold ones, and the American Sun Belt only boomed after cheap AC. Lee Kuan Yew called air conditioning the invention that made development in the tropics possible, and it's not obviously hyperbole.

HEAT WAVES PASSING CROP TOLERANCE TEMPERATURES

US, Europe and China crop yields are crucial to world food security.

2026 Europe heat reached 48.4 °C (119.1 °F), Casteltermini Italy

2026 US heat reached 46°C (11°F), Miles City Montana.

China 2026 heat reached 48.9°C, Turpan Basin Xinjiang
These are confirmed weather station temperatures.




Peter Carter - HEAT WAVES PASSING CROP TOLERANCE...
https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1BRS1XRFBi/