nekdo random na redditu se snazi rozebrat dynamiku mezi ruznymi klimatology

SS: We Study Climate Change. We Can’t Explain What We’re Seeing. - Gavin Schmidt (Head of GISS) and Zeke Hausfather (Berkeley Earth)

This "opinion" piece in today's NYT is basically a position statement from the Moderate faction in Climate Science. Schmidt and Hausfather are the "serious science" voices in that faction. As opposed to people like Michael Mann who pushes "hopium" and has stated that he views "doomism" as a "mental illness".

It's significant both for what it says and for what it doesn't say.

What it says that's important:

"The earth has been exceptionally warm of late, with every month from June 2023 until this past September breaking records."

"It has been considerably hotter even than climate scientists expected."

"Average temperatures during the past 12 months have also been above the goal set by the Paris climate agreement: to keep global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius over preindustrial levels."

-translation: We are now above +1.5°C, WAY sooner than the Moderates thought it was going to happen.

"the unusual jump in global temperatures starting in mid-2023 appears to be higher than our models predicted (even as they generally remain within the expected range)."

-translation: The temperatures are GENERALLY within "the expected range" of the Moderate General Climate Models BUT at the HIGH END of the models. Meaning "Climate Sensitivity" to 2XCO2 is probably higher than they thought.

"While there have been many partial hypotheses — new low-sulfur fuel standards for marine shipping, a volcanic eruption in 2022, lower Chinese aerosol emissions and El Niño perhaps behaving differently than in the recent past."

-translation: 4 years ago we COMPLETELY ignored James Hansen when he predicted up to +0.6°C of warming from the change in marine diesel. Zeke estimated only +0.06°C of warming would result from that change. We would rather DIE than admit Hansen was right, but NOTHING ELSE explains what's happened.

"we remain far from a consensus explanation even more than a year after we first noticed the anomalies. And that makes us uneasy."

-translation: We don't know what's going on and we're scared.

"Why is it taking so long for climate scientists to grapple with these questions?"

-translation: The theories and models of the Moderates aren't working is why BUT they cannot admit that the Alarmists might have been right all along. So now, they are spending a LOT of time trying out EVERY OTHER possible explanation.

"It turns out that we do not have systems in place to explore the significance of shorter-term phenomena in the climate in anything approaching real time. But we need them badly. It’s now time for government science agencies to provide more timely updates in response to the rapid changes in the climate."

-translation: We need MORE MONEY to build out a better climate monitoring system.

Which is what the rest of the piece is a plea for.

The graphs are interesting and give a good idea of just how much 2023 and 2024 have been OFF THE CHARTS bad.

clanek zde https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/13/opinion/climate-change-heat-planet.html?unlocked_article_code=1.aU4.yUZL.WUVZeJCH6AiT&smid=re-share

The carbon dioxide removal gap

First, although most countries have committed to net zero targets, they still provide little information on what role CDR will play in reaching them. Within the NDCs, ambiguities and a lack of transparency lead to wide ranging assessments of not only the land use §ux and implied removals, but also overall emissions levels. These problems are even more apparent with the long-term strategies, which lack any common reporting structure and where underlying scenarios are illustrative rather than formal commitments.

Finally, a recurring concern in the literature is that including CDR in mitigation discussions may deter near-term emissions reductions 38. States, corporations or other interest groups seeking an excuse for doing very little may exploit the fact that CDR can compensate for emissions, overplaying the quantity of removals that may be achieved at some (later) point in time. Indeed, a variety of claims and discursive strategies beyond CDR are used to excuse or delay climate action, which may help political actors resolve the tension between powerful incumbent fossil interests and increasing domestic or international calls for
climate action.

An over-dependence on land-based removals brings risks for land
availability, food production and ownership rights.

Additionally, forest carbon is vulnerable to reversal and expectations that regional sinks can be preserved in the coming decades have been challenged, highlighting the importance of policies that promote sustainable management, prevent illegal removals, and limit the impact of natural disturbances

Aneb cesta pod 2C by znamenala 19% pokles celkových emisí GHG do roku 2030 v porovnání s rokem 2020, CDR je pouhý techno-hopium sen který napomáhá k greenwash. klimatických/emisních scénářů.

The carbon dioxide removal gap | Nature Climate Change
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-024-01984-6

• The_carbon_dioxide_removal_gap.pdf

There is a weird phenomenon I've witnessed quite often in the climate discourse, and that I try to pin down in the essay linked below. Sometimes it feels like Westerners merely try to calm themselves by saying that they're not going to be the ones who will be affected the worst by climate change. Pure hopium, if you ask me. Everyone will be affected, just in different ways. But to think that the Global North will remain relatively unaffected while the Global South bears the brunt is a dangerous illusion, as this years' summer shows.

There is no ‘Safe Haven’ from Climate Change
https://animistsramblings.substack.com/p/safe-haven-climate-change

Disclaimer: if you’re suffering from eco-anxiety, solastalgia or a similar mental health issue perfectly reasonable reaction to the collapse of everything you hold dear, this article might be a trigger for you. Proceed at your own risk.

MARSHUS: Hopium to je, ale ne kvůli prachu z pneumatik. Jak velká část planety bude neobyvatelná závisí na tom, kolik ještě spálíme fosilního uhlíku. Musíme výrazně omezit spotřebu, cestování, počet aut, populační růst. Vyměnit spalovací motory za elektroauta nestačí.

GOJATLA: elektrický auta jsou hopium a ve skutečnosti to problém (životní styl) neřeší?

ale samozřejmě, můžeš to brát tak že klimatická změna je jediný problém životního prostředí, pak by to sem nepatřilo. jen abys nevylil vaničku i s dítětem.

Starší článek, který dobře shrnuje, proč se pořád nedaří vyřešit klima...

The hopium of the people | Consciousness of Sheep
https://consciousnessofsheep.co.uk/2018/11/05/the-hopium-of-the-people/
November 5, 2018
#CCS #hopium

Even when fitted to chimneys – where the carbon dioxide is at least concentrated – carbon capture technologies have proved excessively expensive in both financial and energy terms.
...
However, this issue pales into insignificance when compared to the difficulty of storing any carbon dioxide that is captured.
...
Vaclav Smil, a professor at University of Manitoba and master of sobering energy-related numbers, calculates that if we were to bury just one-fifth of the global carbon dioxide emissions, we would need to build an industry capable of handling twice the volume of stuff as the entire oil industry, an industry that took 100 years to develop, driven by a large and mostly expanding market.
...
“Summing up, the path to least climate impact will require nations to work together to cut global carbon emissions by 45% in just over a decade.
“Such a cut in emissions will require an unprecedented degree of political will and global cooperation…
...
However, after decades of neoliberal politics and economics, only massive sacrifices on the part of the very wealthy are likely to prevent a further drift toward a climate change denying populism among the majority of impoverished citizens.
...
More than six out of every seven people alive today only exist because of the Haber–Bosch process that produces synthetic ammonia (fertiliser) from fossil fuels. Any genuine effort at reversing climate change had to have as its starting point a reduction in the human population at least to the level prior to the (industrial agriculture) “Green Revolution;” less than half of today’s population. Instead – with a great deal of help from religions that implore us to go forth and multiply, and economists that need a new base for the global Ponzi scheme – we have grown our population as fast as agricultural productivity has improved.
...
The choice before us is that we can take action to reverse climate change and a lot of people are going to die. Alternatively, we can do nothing about climate change and a lot of people are going to die. And since nobody has the wisdom or the bravery to make that choice, we can all sit around pretending that some incredibly implausible technology is going to come riding to our rescue… the opium of the people indeed.

Ještě jedno bitechnologický hOPIUM :)

Is Mycelium Fungus the Plastic of the Future?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cApVVuuqLFY