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    TUHOKlimaticka zmena / Destroying the Future Is the Most Cost-Effective


    "Given the sheer enormity of climate change, it’s okay to be depressed, to grieve. But please, don’t stay there too long. Join me in pure, unadulterated, righteous anger."


    "I don’t want your hope. I don’t want you to be hopeful. I want you to panic. I want you to feel the fear I feel every day. And then I want you to act. Once you start to act, the hope is everywhere."

    "Our best scientists tell us insistently that a calamity is unfolding, that the life-support systems of the Earth are being damaged in ways that threaten our survival. Yet in the face of these facts we carry on as usual."

    “We’ve got to stop burning fossil fuels. So many aspects of life depend on fossil fuels, except for music and love and education and happiness. These things, which hardly use fossil fuels, are what we must focus on.”

    A nejde o to, že na to nemáme dostatečné technologie, ty by na řešení použít šly, ale chybí nám vůle a představivost je využít. Zůstáváme při zemi, přemýšlíme až moc rezervovaně. Technologický pokrok to sám o sobě nevyřeší. Problém jsme my, ne technologické nástroje.

    Rostouci hladiny oceanu, zmena atmosferickeho proudeni, zmeny v distribuci srazek a sucha. Zmeny karbonoveho, fosforoveho a dusikoveho cyklu, okyselovani oceanu. Jake jsou bezpecnostni rizika a jake potencialni klady dramatickych zmen fungovani zemskeho systemu?
    Ale take jak funguji masove dezinformacni kampane ropneho prumyslu a boj o verejne mineni na prahu noveho klimatickeho rezimu post-holocenu.
    rozbalit záhlaví
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    While floating solar – the emerging practice of putting solar panels on bodies of water – is promising in its efficiency and its potential to spare agricultural and conservation lands, a new experiment finds environmental trade-offs.

    “There have been a flurry of papers about floating solar, but it’s mostly modeling and projections,” said Steven Grodsky, assistant professor of natural resources and the environment and assistant unit leader of the New York Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit in the College of Agriculture and Life Sciences at Cornell University, as well as a faculty fellow at the Cornell Atkinson Center for Sustainability. “This is the first manipulative study to produce empirical results. It’s saying, here’s what’s actually happening. And what we found was that there was increased greenhouse gas emissions from ponds with floating solar.”

    Grodsky and collaborators covered three ponds at the Cornell Experimental Pond Facility with solar panels, at 70% coverage, and found that, almost immediately, methane and carbon dioxide emissions increased – by 26.8% compared to ponds without solar panels – and dissolved oxygen throughout the ponds substantially decreased.

    https://news.cornell.edu/stories/2025/01/floating-solar-increases-greenhouse-gas-emissions-small-ponds.
    ROGER_WILCO
    ROGER_WILCO --- ---
    Clean air policies unintentionally drive up wetland methane emissions, study finds

    https://phys.org/news/2025-02-air-policies-unintentionally-wetland-methane.html

    How has this happened? Put simply, sulfur provides the conditions for one set of bacteria to outmuscle another set of microbes that produce methane when they compete over the limited food available in wetlands. Under the conditions of acid rain sulfur pollution during the past century, this was enough to reduce wetland methane emissions by up to 8%.
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Recent methane surges reveal heightened emissions from tropical inundated areas | Nature Communications
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-55266-y
    XCHAOS
    XCHAOS --- ---
    Zack Labe: ""Rapid shift in methane carbon isotopes suggests …" - FediScience.org
    https://fediscience.org/@ZLabe/113352944813552142
    CHOSIE
    CHOSIE --- ---
    YMLADRIS: Ano, trochu už to pár týdnů sleduji, ne že by od toho mohl člověk moc očekávat. :shrug:
    “China and US push each other on priorities for UN COP29 climate talks…

    “Washington’s top climate diplomat John Podesta has pressed Chinese leaders to come up with ambitious plans to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 2035 in one of the final meetings between the world’s two largest polluters ahead of the UN COP29 climate summit in November.”

    Subscribe to read
    https://www.ft.com/content/784bb728-a0d7-485a-9ab9-89da0d516f61
    https://archive.fo/ecZe9
    ___
    “Good Cop, Bad COP29: Azerbaijan’s greenwashing ahead of crucial climate summit…

    “Since it was announced as this year’s host in November last year, Azerbaijan has intensified crackdowns on independent media and academics, arresting dozens on falsified charges this year alone. And concerns are intensifying around Azerbaijan’s commitments to expanding its fossil fuel industry.”
    https://www.sbs.com.au/news/podcast-episode/good-cop-bad-cop29-azerbaijans-greenwashing-ahead-of-crucial-climate-summit/j5qm1xxq5
    ___
    "Satellite data shows an increase in gas flaring since Azerbaijan last reported its emissions six years ago, calling into question BP and state oil company’s pledge to eliminate methane flaring by 2030."

    "Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, countries are required to submit their emissions data every two years. Yet Azerbaijan, which will host the COP29 climate summit in November, has failed to do so since 2018. "
    wonderful

    "The Presidency of COP29 is headed by Mukhtar Babayev, who is currently serving as Ecology and Natural Resources of Azerbaijan, Babayev previously worked as the SOCAR’s Vice President for ecology."

    https://www.globalwitness.org/en/campaigns/fossil-gas/cop29-host-azerbaijan-failing-report-ever-growing-methane-emissions/
    ___
    Several major oil-producing countries, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, are pushing back against talks on an agreement at the upcoming COP29 climate summit to mitigate the use of fossil fuels.

    https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Petrostates-Push-Back-Against-UN-Talks-on-Shift-from-Fossil-Fuels.html
    ___
    “COP29 host’s own climate plans are ‘critically insufficient’, says expert group…

    “Campaigners have expressed concerns about the selection of yet another country that is heavily reliant on the sale of oil and gas to oversee the world’s most important climate negotiations. Questions about human rights followed after several arrests of government critics.”

    Subscribe to read
    https://www.ft.com/content/8ca61260-743a-4e4b-8699-e937a07d7cfc
    https://archive.fo/Nlg2O
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    CHOSIE: tak oni by na tom neprodelali, ale popravde nevim proc se to vic neresi. Je mozny, ze pred lar lety jeste byli tezky ty uniky merit, ted uz se da vsecko poznat ze satelitu...

    Ale aspon neco uz se vi a neco se deje:

    But because more than half of these methane emissions are coming from a tiny number of oil and gas sites, 1% or less, this means the problem is both worse than the government has determined but also fairly fixable, said the lead author of a study in the journal Nature.
    ...
    There are also substantial leaks throughout the rest of the system, including tanks, compressors and pipelines, Sherwin said.

    “It’s actually straightforward to fix,” he said.
    ...
    Last December, the Biden administration issued a new rule forcing the US oil and natural gas industry to cut its methane emissions. At the same time at the United Nations climate negotiations in Dubai, 50 oil companies around the world pledged to reach near zero methane emissions and end routine flaring in operations by 2030. That Dubai agreement would trim about one-tenth of a degree celsius (nearly two-tenths of a degree fahrenheit) from future warming, a prominent climate scientist told the Associated Press.

    US energy industry gas leaks are triple the official figures, study finds | Oil and gas companies | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/mar/13/us-gas-leaks-report-climate-change
    CHOSIE
    CHOSIE --- ---
    SHEFIK: Ano, je to případ USA kde jsou vysoké (a podkalkulované) emise metanu. Něco přidává samozné zkapalnění a taky transport. Netusím jak je to v případě jiných zemí.

    Jak jsem dříve sdílel, a to jsou jen plynovody, taktéž uniká při těžbě - a po ní. A jo šlo by to řešit, a jak jsem i psal - jediné kam by to zasáhlo je zisk rop. průmyslu, ale neřeší se.
    U.S. natural gas pipelines are leaking between 1.2 million and 2.6 million tons of methane per year (equivalent of ~150m tonnes of CO2)
    CHOSIE
    CHOSIE --- ---
    Asi jste před pár dny postřehli:
    LONDON (October 1, 2024) – Today, the United Kingdom has officially closed its last coal-fired power plant, marking the end of coal use to generate electricity in the country.
    Dnes jsem narazil na tuto analýzu, pokud se nepletu je to právě plyn, který v UK zastupuje největší kapacitu
    The greenhouse gas footprint of liquefied natural gas (LNG) exported from the United States
    Overall, the greenhouse gas footprint for LNG as a fuel source is 33% greater than that for coal when analyzed using GWP20 (160 g CO2-equivalent/MJ vs. 120 g CO2-equivalent/MJ). Even considered on the time frame of 100 years after emission (GWP100), which severely understates the climatic damage of methane, the LNG footprint equals or exceeds that of coal.

    https://scijournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ese3.1934
    CHOSIE
    CHOSIE --- ---
    China has more than 1 billion tons/year of new coal mines in pipeline, report says
    https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/china-has-more-than-1-bln-tonsyear-new-coal-mines-pipeline-report-says-2024-09-10/
    China developing 1.28 bln tons of coal mining capacity
    Chinese mines in progress more than half global pipeline
    35% of projects in pipeline under construction
    Current large-scale capacity is 3.88 mln metric tons/year
    China responsible for 70% of coal mine methane emissions
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    Tipping point reached. Z cyklu #doomed

    Surging Methane Emissions Could Be a Sign of a Major Climate Shift - Inside Climate News
    https://insideclimatenews.org/news/28082024/surging-methane-emissions-major-climate-shift/

    A 2021 pledge by more than 100 nations to cut methane emissions from anthropogenic sources 30 percent by 2030 might not slow global warming as much as projected, as new research shows that feedbacks in the climate system are boosting methane emissions from natural sources, especially tropical wetlands.

    A new trouble spot is in the Arctic, where scientists recently found unexpectedly large methane emissions in winter. And globally, the increase in water vapor caused by global warming is slowing the rate at which methane breaks down in the atmosphere. If those feedbacks intensify, scientists said, it could outpace efforts to cut methane from fossil fuel and other human sources.
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    ‘Nobody ever saw anything like this before’: how methane emissions are pushing the Amazon towards environmental catastrophe | Greenhouse gas emissions | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/aug/17/methane-climate-crisis-amazon-peat-permafrost-vegan-heat-pumps
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Global Methane Emission Measurements with Incredible Unprecedented Accuracy from NEW MethaneSat
    https://youtu.be/b4bsqlIIqD8?si=lGltV2Byxo1slg-W
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Trees reveal climate surprise: Microbes living in bark remove methane from the atmosphere
    https://phys.org/news/2024-07-trees-reveal-climate-microbes-bark.html
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    What Trump 2.0 Could Mean for the Environment
    https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/16/climate/trump-epa-regulation.html

    “President Trump made America a net exporter of energy for the first time because he cut red tape and gave the industry more freedom to do what they do best — utilize the liquid gold under our feet.” If elected, he would “cancel Joe Biden’s radical mandates, terminate the Green New Scam, and make America energy independent again,” she said.

    ...

    At various points, courts overturned the Trump administration’s attempts to relax restrictions on carbon-dioxide emissions from power plants; blocked a rule that would have limited what scientific studies the E.P.A. could use; and found the administration broke the law when it failed to enact nationwide standards to curb harmful ozone pollution. Judges also rejected attempts to take gray wolves off the endangered species list and to roll back rules that restricted methane leaks from oil and gas wells.

    ...

    The courts could also prove more sympathetic next time around. With three Supreme Court justices appointed by Mr. Trump, the court now has a conservative supermajority that has shown a deep skepticism toward environmental regulation. The court has sometimes blocked rules that were still being adjudicated in lower courts or before they were implemented.

    In June, the Supreme Court overturned the so-called Chevron doctrine, which for 40 years said that courts should defer to government agencies when a law is unclear. That ruling could undercut the regulatory authority of many federal agencies. The Supreme Court also halted E.P.A. rules that limited smokestack pollution blowing across state borders, overturned expanded protections for millions of acres of wetlands and narrowed the agency’s ability to regulate emissions from power plants.

    ...

    many environmentalists say that while they might block some moves, they can’t force a Trump administration to adopt policies that will cut greenhouse gases. And the window to limit global warming to relatively low levels is rapidly closing.

    “There’s no skeleton key that’s going to protect everything Biden has accomplished,” said Sam Ricketts, founder of S2 Strategies, a clean-energy consulting group. “I’d love to say that there is a fail-safe plan to protect the gains we’ve made should Trump be president again. There is not.”
    CHOSIE
    CHOSIE --- ---
    MINER: Uvidíme kam se to vědecky vyvine, jak píšeš je to momentálně celkem probírané téma, takže čekám, že následující měsíce a roky nám dají více odpovědí.
    Jak konec článku zmiňuje - na jednu stranu je jedno zda 3C nebo 5C (7C v případě sdílené publikace), obojí je špatný. I když případě těch horních hranic mluvíme o podmínkách, které si těžko dokážeme představit.

    Jinak ještě z článku, který jsem sdílel:
    It should be noted that our ECS is not the same as the ECS used by the IPCC, given that it represents specific climate sensitivity S[CO2,LI]
    (i.e., ESS corrected for potential slow land ice feedback) and does not consider changes in other greenhouse gases (e.g., methane), paleogeography
    , nor solar luminosity; we are currently unable to conduct these additional considerations65. The impact of additional methane and
    water would bring down ECS, which likely explains why paleo ECS is generally higher than modern models.
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    PER2:

    Denmark to charge farmers €100 a cow in first carbon tax on agriculture
    https://www.ft.com/content/c7a4eeaa-3a00-4132-bac3-82e1d0650c78

    Denmark is moving ahead with the world’s first carbon tax on agriculture, with cattle farmers set to be charged almost €100 a year for the greenhouse gas emissions from each of their cows.

    After months of fraught negotiations with trade bodies and environmental groups, Denmark’s ruling coalition on Monday night agreed an effective tax rate of DKr120 (€16) per tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions from livestock, including cows and pigs.

    ...

    Ruminant animals such as cows and sheep produce methane through their digestive systems, while synthetic nitrogen fertilisers in the grass they eat also produce greenhouse gases. Livestock accounts for 11 per cent of global emissions, with almost two-thirds of that driven by cows.
    CHOSIE
    CHOSIE --- ---
    XCHAOS: Tak také je tu spousta tzv. "low hanging fruit", v politickém a aktivistickém dosahu a s menším zásahem do kvality života než nějaká konrkétní omezení a regulace. Ono i to "Just Stop Oil" pokud se nepletu, je proti investicím do nových vrtů, ne zastavení toku ropy jako takové.

    Pár příkladů:
    - Zakonzervování ropných vrtů
    Turkmenistán - The data produced by Kayrros for the Guardian found that the western fossil fuel field in Turkmenistan, on the Caspian coast, leaked 2.6m tonnes of methane in 2022. The eastern field emitted 1.8m tonnes. Together, the two fields released emissions equivalent to 366m tonnes of CO2

    - Oprava plynovodů
    U.S. natural gas pipelines are leaking between 1.2 million and 2.6 million tons of methane per year (equivalent of ~150m tonnes of CO2)

    - Zamezení úniku fluoridu sírového
    Uník v USA má stejný dopad jako ~2m aut ročně

    - Přidávání mořských řas do krmiva pro dobytek
    Livestock are responsible for roughly 14.5 percent of humanity’s annual greenhouse gas emissions, and cows are thought to account for about 65 percent of those emissions.
    In 2018, some of the same researchers behind the new paper recorded methane emissions reductions of more than 50 percent among dairy cows after the introduction of a red-colored seaweed called Asparagopsis taxiformis to their feed.
    (pokud tedy bereme úpravu západní diety jako příliš velký zákrok)

    - Ukončení dotací fosilních paliv
    Tyto dotace jsou ve výsledku pouze zneužívány (jako asi většina). Prostředky mohly jít například do budování elektr. infrastruktury/uložišť, nebo jiným spolčenosti/přirodě prospěšným směrem.

    Obecně tedy co se týče oteplování má smysl zaměřit se na mnohem potentnější CH4, ale zároveň nezapomínejme, že to není jediný faktor a například acidifikace oceánu je další vážný problém, kde roli hraje čistě CO2.

    Ještě si dovolím zmínit tuto studii, bylo by fajn mít podobný výzkum i v jiných zemích/celosvětově, ale dejme tomu, že třeba 15-20% emisí by šlo omezit aniž bychom nějak zásadně ovlivnili ekonomiku nebo zaměstnanost (také se nabízí mnoho možností pracovní místa přidat) -
    We compared the systemic relevance of every firm in Hungary
    We determined that for an emissions reduction of 20%, the most effective strategy leads to losses of about 2% of jobs and 2% of economic output. In contrast, a naive scenario targeting the largest emitters first results in 28% job losses and 33% output reduction for the same target.
    https://phys.org/news/2024-04-emissions-economic-loss.amp
    PALEONTOLOG
    PALEONTOLOG --- ---
    CHOSIE: viz wiki o petm

    Rate of carbon addition

    Model simulations of peak carbon addition to the ocean–atmosphere system during the PETM give a probable range of 0.3–1.7 petagrams of carbon per year (Pg C/yr), which is much slower than the currently observed rate of carbon emissions. One petagram of carbon is equivalent to a gigaton of carbon (GtC); the current rate of carbon injection into the atmosphere is over 10 GtC/yr, a rate much greater than the carbon injection rate that occurred during the PETM.[197] It has been suggested that today's methane emission regime from the ocean floor is potentially similar to that during the PETM.[198] Because the modern rate of carbon release exceeds the PETM's, it is speculated the a PETM-like scenario is the best-case consequence of anthropogenic global warming, with a mass extinction of a magnitude similar to the Cretaceous-Palaeogene extinction event being a worst-case scenario.[199]
    YMLADRIS
    YMLADRIS --- ---
    A new study says that thawing permafrost probably won’t cause a runaway process. Permafrost is permanently frozen ground that covers about a quarter of the landmass in the Northern Hemisphere. It stores large amounts of methane and carbon dioxide that will be released when it thaws. If that release were to cause enough further warming to accelerate its own release, the process would inevitably “run away” until everything is released. The new study now says that the pace of release depends strongly on the ground conditions and in general wouldn’t be fast enough to actually speed itself up.

    Single view - AWI
    https://www.awi.de/en/about-us/service/press/single-view/tauender-permafrost-kein-globales-klima-kippelement-trotzdem-gravierende-auswirkungen.html
    PALEONTOLOG
    PALEONTOLOG --- ---
    MATT: no to je pecka



    New satellite will track elusive methane pollution from oil and gas industry globally | CBC News
    https://www.cbc.ca/news/climate/methanesat-launch-climate-1.7132770
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