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    TUHOKlimaticka zmena / Destroying the Future Is the Most Cost-Effective


    "Given the sheer enormity of climate change, it’s okay to be depressed, to grieve. But please, don’t stay there too long. Join me in pure, unadulterated, righteous anger."


    "I don’t want your hope. I don’t want you to be hopeful. I want you to panic. I want you to feel the fear I feel every day. And then I want you to act. Once you start to act, the hope is everywhere."

    "Our best scientists tell us insistently that a calamity is unfolding, that the life-support systems of the Earth are being damaged in ways that threaten our survival. Yet in the face of these facts we carry on as usual."

    “We’ve got to stop burning fossil fuels. So many aspects of life depend on fossil fuels, except for music and love and education and happiness. These things, which hardly use fossil fuels, are what we must focus on.”

    A nejde o to, že na to nemáme dostatečné technologie, ty by na řešení použít šly, ale chybí nám vůle a představivost je využít. Zůstáváme při zemi, přemýšlíme až moc rezervovaně. Technologický pokrok to sám o sobě nevyřeší. Problém jsme my, ne technologické nástroje.

    Rostouci hladiny oceanu, zmena atmosferickeho proudeni, zmeny v distribuci srazek a sucha. Zmeny karbonoveho, fosforoveho a dusikoveho cyklu, okyselovani oceanu. Jake jsou bezpecnostni rizika a jake potencialni klady dramatickych zmen fungovani zemskeho systemu?
    Ale take jak funguji masove dezinformacni kampane ropneho prumyslu a boj o verejne mineni na prahu noveho klimatickeho rezimu post-holocenu.
    rozbalit záhlaví
    CHOSIE
    CHOSIE --- ---
    Proč je to vůbec v tomto vláknu, to už není ani pop-science video, ale odpad a snaha dojit z reklam.


    (WOODMAKER: mimochodem energii tří milionů hirošimských atomových bomb oceány přijmou (navíc) každé ~4 dny)
    YMLADRIS
    YMLADRIS --- ---
    TUHO: v ty political science není moc zvykem sdílet raw data, co to vůbec by bylo, takže jak podložený ? Můžeš si vybrat jestli belicek, politico, Sabine :) nebo kdo. A máš to podložený že tvůj plátek ví jak to teda je..

    Zajímalo by mě co si myslí Assange
    SCHWEPZ
    SCHWEPZ --- ---
    TUHO: Bezos následuje Muska a Trumpa ("klimatická změna neexistuje, pojďme vrtat, baby, vrtat a pálit") a stopl tenhle důležitý projekt:

    Jeff Bezos’s $10bn philanthropic fund has stopped backing the world’s leading voluntary climate standard setter, following rising scrutiny over its influence on the body, in a move seen as the billionaire’s latest effort to curry favour with US President Donald Trump.

    Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi) je globální iniciativa, která pomáhá firmám stanovit vědecky podložené cíle pro snižování emisí skleníkových plynů v souladu s Pařížskou dohodou. Jejím cílem je zajistit, aby podniky přispívaly k omezení globálního oteplování na maximálně 1,5 °C nad předindustriální úrovní. Zakladateli jsou CDP (Carbon Disclosure Project), UN Global Compact, World Resources Institute (WRI) a WWF, do iniciativy je zapojeno 4 tisíce firem.

    Žádná klimatická změna není. Bezos zastavil penězovod | Newstream
    https://www.newstream.cz/leaders/klimaticka-zmena-neni-bezos-s-partnerkou-zastavili-penezovod
    Subscribe to read
    https://www.ft.com/content/c3bf3f5f-afa2-44ce-8314-18ad321cd983
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    Peklo

    Regrettably, I have to extend this post due to even more news. The assault on scientific funding and agencies continues, for one thing. Since I posted this, Elon Musk's team has entered the offices of NOAA, since their remit of weather forecasting and climate science has made them a target for the sort of people who believe that any talk of climate change is some sort of liberal plot. Granting opportunities having anything to do with diversity have disappeared from NIH sites, and I have seen reports that the option to request grant extensions has disappeared. There are reports of Musk staffers on the CDC campus today, and yesterday an NSF official said at an internal meeting that the agency is apparently planning to lay off up to half its staff over the next two months.

    https://www.science.org/content/blog-post/what-s-happening-inside-nih
    ROGER_WILCO
    ROGER_WILCO --- ---
    Trump Moves to Dismantle NOAA, Putting Climate Data and Weather Forecasting at Risk
    What Happened: The Trump regime is reportedly working to break up and downsize NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), fulfilling a key objective of Project 2025. Former Trump officials behind the plan claim NOAA is “harmful to U.S. prosperity” due to its role in climate science. NOAA staff is being removed without legal authority, and its climate and weather forecasting data could be privatized for corporate use instead of remaining public.

    Why It Matters: NOAA plays a critical role in public safety, providing weather forecasts, storm alerts, and climate data essential for businesses, farmers, and disaster response. Gutting NOAA would weaken climate research, disrupt fisheries management, and increase reliance on private corporations for weather data.

    Source: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/feb/04/doge-noaa-headquarters

    Trump Tyranny Tracker: Day 16 - by Olga Lautman
    https://trumptyrannytracker.substack.com/p/trump-tyranny-tracker-day-16
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    Catastrophic tipping point in Greenland reached as crystal blue lakes turn brown, belch out carbon dioxide | Live Science
    https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/climate-change/catastrophic-tipping-point-in-greenland-reached-as-crystal-blue-lakes-turn-brown-belch-out-carbon-dioxide

    Record heat and rain turned thousands of Greenland lakes brown in 2022 as they hit a tipping point and began emitting carbon dioxide.
    ...
    Less sunlight was able to penetrate the lakes as they darkened, which had a ripple effect on the microscopic plankton living in the water. The number of plankton absorbing CO₂ through photosynthesis — the process of turning sunlight into energy — declined, while the amount of plankton breaking down and releasing carbon increased, according to a statement released by the University of Maine.

    The lakes normally absorb CO₂ in the summer, but by the following year they had flipped to become carbon dioxide producers. These types of widespread changes would normally take centuries. Researchers have observed the browning of lakes across the Northern Hemisphere, including the U.S., but it typically takes multiple decades — much longer than the transformation of Greenland's lakes.
    CHOSIE
    CHOSIE --- ---
    XCHAOS: Tak šlo by to pojmout úplně jinak, než: "Warming? I'm more worried about Freezing."
    Naznačovat, že se více obává toho, že umrzne, než oteplování (lépe ohřívání) je pro ty, kteří budou soudit pouze dle náhledu potvrzením toho, jak si věda protiřečí.
    Nicméně soudě dle zhlédnutí ten click-bait zafungoval.
    Vlastně se ptám, zda je tu potřeba postovat pop-science, když ta autorka z toho oboru není a několikrát na tom pohořela (nebo kdokoliv píše ty scénáře videí).
    CHOSIE
    CHOSIE --- ---
    Jinak nedávno se tu sdílelo hned několik publikací od autorů, kteří se tématu AMOC věnují, něco co si poslechnu/přečtu raději než interpretaci Sabine, a tak jsem to též v mém příspěvku níže myslel.

    Zde relativně nová studie (11/2024) projektující změnu srážek a teplot.
    (DJC = December, January, February; MAM = March, April, May; JJA = June, July, August; SON = September, October, November; HOMO = homogenous; HETE = heterogenous)
    Teploty:

    Srážky:

    Zdroj: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adr3243
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    R hallam

    In case you have not noticed, the next big "shock" on the "climate" after the recent admission of going over 1.5C, is going to be the final confirmation that massive ice melt is now locked in for the Antarctic - and 5 metres of sea level rise in the next century is now the main scenario. Of course it will be some time before it is spelt out as clearly as that.

    Reading "climate science" is a bit like looking at statements from some authoritarian state. You have to attend to each word to get that hint that things are a lot worse than they actually are. So much worse in fact that civilisation is now going to collapse. Of course, that is pure speculation!

    https://buff.ly/42b30R4
    https://buff.ly/424b2Ln
    Octopus DNA reveals that Antarctic ice sheet collapse is "close" - Earth.com
    https://buff.ly/4h5BUi8
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    CHOSIE:

    R Hallam
    https://www.facebook.com/share/17r115zhSw/


    Here is James Hansen's great piece on the natural science of the elite's emission of carbon, and not great piece on the social science of the elite's emission of carbon.

    Let's start with social science law number one. Power resides in sovereign states, not global courts. Even if global courts say that what the elites are doing is illegal, nothing will change.

    Social science law number two. States only fundamentally change - change their regimes - when there is material resistance from their populations - national strikes and mass occupations of the streets for several weeks or months. The only effective way to create structural political change in the time we have left is through this civil resistance - in comparison with alternative ineffective methods (voting, lobbying, legal challenge).

    This is a historical no brainer. It has happened hundreds of times over the past two hundred years - most recently in Bangladesh. The primary reason why it is not happening is because of the scientifically illiterate and irrational attachment of the Western liberal and administrative classes to means of change which simply do not work - have not worked for 30 years - and will not work in the future. Because entrenched power does not respond to such methods. Only when the young realise they are being duped by those who continually mislead them, will they do what they always do to create regime change - go on the streets and stay there.

    I have been saying this for 10 years now. Not because I have a particular ideological attachment to civil resistance or public disruption any more than those that report of climate breakdown want ecological collapse to happen. It is simply about what is real.

    Social science law number three is that the liberal class never moves in time. And that is why you end up having full blown revolutions. But of course no one wants to talk about that. Not yet. But it will come, as surely as an apple dropping to the ground. It's Newtonian determinism.
    PALEONTOLOG
    PALEONTOLOG --- ---
    XCHAOS: tak mikroplasty jsou teď už typickou součástí antropocénu, stejně jako současná klimatická změna. plasty už mají geologickej i biologickej význam. to v čem žijeme a čeho změnu tady pozorujeme v sociáních, ekonomickejch, enviromentálních dopadech se nachází na kontaktu hydrosféry, atmosféry, litosféry, biosféry i antroposféry. mikroplasty jsou pevnou součástí klimatické změny.



    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0048969724043080

    btw.
    Plastové odpadky mění geologii Země. Tyto horniny vznikají přírodním tavením plastů. Vítejte v antropocénu – VTM.cz
    https://vtm.zive.cz/clanky/plastove-odpadky-meni-geologii-zeme-tyto-horniny-vznikaji-prirodnim-tavenim-plastu-vitejte-v-antropocenu/sc-870-a-221297/default.aspx
    CHOSIE
    CHOSIE --- ---
    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921800924002210
    In the last decade many publications have appeared on degrowth as a strategy to confront environmental and social problems. We undertake a systematic review of their content, data and methods. This involves the use of computational linguistics to identify main topics investigated. Based on a sample of 561 studies we conclude that: (1) content covers 11 main topics with the four dominant ones being Environmental justice, Sustainable wellbeing, Local/urban practices and Democracy and civil society; (2) the large majority (almost 90%) of studies are opinions rather than analysis; (3) few studies use quantitative or qualitative data, and even fewer ones use formal modelling; (4) the first and second type tend to include small samples or focus on non-representative cases; (5) most studies offer ad hoc and subjective policy advice, lacking policy evaluation and integration with insights from the literature on environmental/climate policies; (6) of the few studies on public support, a majority concludes that degrowth strategies and policies are socially-politically infeasible; (7) various studies represent a “reverse causality” confusion, i.e. use the term degrowth not for a deliberate strategy but to denote economic decline (in GDP terms) resulting from exogenous factors or public policies; (8) few studies adopt a system-wide perspective – instead most focus on small, local cases without a clear implication for the economy as a whole. We illustrate each of these findings for concrete studies.

    The weakness of degrowth studies in terms of data analysis – whether quantitative or qualitative - is understandable to some extent. The idea of degrowth is so far from reality that good empirical studies are hardly possible. Undertaking experiments with degrowth is also impossible as one cannot isolate one part of society from the rest and subject it to a completely different economic regime.
    CHOSIE
    CHOSIE --- ---
    Něco ke čtení, když nemám pravdu.

    https://waterfilterguru.com/list-of-products-with-pfas

    An overview of the uses of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) - Environmental Science: Processes & Impacts (RSC Publishing)
    https://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlelanding/2020/em/d0em00291g#!divAbstract

    Our Current Understanding of the Human Health and Environmental Risks of PFAS | US EPA
    https://www.epa.gov/pfas/our-current-understanding-human-health-and-environmental-risks-pfas

    PFAS and microplastics become more toxic when combined, research shows | Pollution | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/nov/25/pfas-microplastics-toxic

    https://phys.org/news/2024-01-pfas-equally-arctic-ocean-atlantic.html

    https://phys.org/news/2021-07-high-chemicals-ice-arctic-ocean.html

    Alarming levels of PFAS in Norwegian Arctic ice pose new risk to wildlife | PFAS | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/feb/11/pfas-norwegian-arctic-ice-wildlife-risk-stressor

    US industry disposed of at least 60m pounds of PFAS waste in last five years | PFAS | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/nov/17/epa-pfas-forever-chemicals-waste-pollution-unregulated

    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S004896972300445X

    Study says drinking water from nearly half of US faucets contains potentially harmful chemicals | AP News
    https://apnews.com/article/pfas-forever-chemicals-drinking-water-813c1323f74d5adb798047eea39c778a

    New report finds most US kale samples contain ‘disturbing’ levels of ‘forever chemicals’ | PFAS | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jun/30/kale-pfas-forever-chemicals-contamination

    What To Know About PFAS Chemicals in Menstrual Products | TIME
    https://time.com/6254060/pfas-period-chemicals-underwear-tampons/

    Study finds alarming levels of ‘forever chemicals’ in US mothers’ breast milk | Pollution | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/may/13/pfas-forever-chemicals-breast-milk-us-study

    https://phys.org/news/2023-05-secret-industry-documents-reveal-makers.html

    ‘Forever chemicals’ linked to infertility in women, study shows | PFAS | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/apr/06/forever-chemicals-infertility-women-pfas-blood

    https://phys.org/news/2023-02-chemicals-farms.html

    https://phys.org/news/2022-10-scientists-pfas-contamination-presumed-sites.html

    Rainwater No Longer Safe to Drink Anywhere Due to 'Forever Chemicals' - Business Insider
    https://www.businessinsider.com/rainwater-no-longer-safe-to-drink-anywhere-study-forever-chemicals-2022-8?r=US&IR=T

    EPA says even tiny amounts of chemicals in drinking water pose risks : NPR
    https://www.npr.org/2022/06/15/1105222327/epa-drinking-water-chemicals-pfas-pfoa-pfos

    New Report Links PFAS to Liver Damage - Consumer Reports
    https://www.consumerreports.org/liver-disease/report-links-pfas-exposure-to-liver-damage-a2222667414/

    High levels of toxic ‘forever chemicals’ found in anti-fogging sprays for glasses | US news | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jan/05/pfas-forever-chemicals-anti-fogging-spray-wipes

    ‘Forever Chemicals’ Are in Your Popcorn—and Your Blood | WIRED
    https://www.wired.com/story/pfas-forever-chemicals-are-in-your-popcornand-your-blood/
    YMLADRIS
    YMLADRIS --- ---
    Frightening :)

    ‘Tipping points’ cause confusion, not clarity
    A focus on climate ‘tipping points’ — moments of abrupt and irreversible shifts in the Earth system, such as the loss of the Amazon rainforest — isn’t helpful, argues an interdisciplinary group of ten researchers that includes climate scientists, science communicators and environmental sociologists. The issues involved are important to study, but the framing is too abstract and frightening to trigger useful action, and not rigorous enough to inform policy, they argue. They recommend that scientists avoid using the idea as a scholarly tool and instead consider it “a fuzzy, boundary-spanning concept akin to ‘sustainability’”.

    Nature Climate Change | 27 min read

    ‘Tipping points’ confuse and can distract from urgent climate action | Nature Climate Change
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-024-02196-8
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Fury as US argues against climate obligations at top UN court | Climate crisis | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/dec/04/us-climate-crisis-legal-court

    Australia, China and Saudi Arabia – major fossil fuel economies and among the world’s worst greenhouse gas emitters – also argued against legal accountability that developing nations are pushing for.

    After years of campaigning by vulnerable nations and the global climate justice movement, the UN asked the ICJ to provide an advisory opinion on what obligations states have to tackle climate change and what the legal consequences could be if they fail to do so. More than 100 countries and organisations are testifying over the course of two weeks, and many hope the hearings will elevate science to the forefront, ensuring international law reflects the realities of climate breakdown and the urgent need for transformative action
    ROGER_WILCO
    ROGER_WILCO --- ---
    XCHAOS: zatim ten směr je spíš opačnej..
    https://www.un-igrac.org/news/global-groundwater-depletion-leads-sea-level-rise

    prší kolik prší, u nás vody spíš ubývá. ohledně vody v atmosféře, tam je kapku nevýhodný poměž, že voda ve formě vodní páry zabírá tisíckrát větší objem. ta změna teploty to imho nevykompenzuje.

    One estimate of the volume of water in the atmosphere at any one time is about 3,100 cubic miles (mi3) or 12,900 cubic kilometers (km3). That may sound like a lot, but it is only about 0.001 percent of the total Earth's water volume of about 332,500,000 mi3 (1,385,000,000 km3), as shown in the table below. https://www.usgs.gov/special-topics/water-science-school/science/atmosphere-and-water-cycle

    earth ocean surface area je 361,000,000 km2, takze 1 mert zvyseni by mel odpovidat 361000 km3 vody, coz je cca 28 nasobek vsechny vody v atmo.. ? ale treba mam chybu v desetiny carce ;)

    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211467X22002255

    Abstract
    The impacts of global climate change on international security and geopolitics could be of historic proportion, challenging those of previous global threats such as nuclear weapons proliferation, the Great Depression, and terrorism. But while the evidence surrounding the security impacts of climate change is fairly well-understood and improving, less is known about the security risks to climate-technology deployment. In this study, we focus on the geopolitical, security, and military risks facing negative emissions and solar geoengineering options. Although controversial, these options could become the future backbone of a low-carbon or net-zero society, given that they avoid the need for coordinated or global action (and can be deployed by a smaller group of actors, even non-state actors), and that they can “buy time” for mitigation and other options to be scaled up. We utilize a large and diverse expert-interview exercise (N = 125) to critically examine the security risks associated with ten negative emission options (or greenhouse gas removal technologies) and ten solar geoengineering options (or solar radiation management technologies). We ask: What geopolitical considerations does deployment give rise to? What particular military applications exist? What risks do these options entail in terms of weaponization, misuse, and miscalculation? We examine such existing and prospective security risks across a novel conceptual framework envisioning their use as (i) diplomatic or military negotiating tools, (ii) objectives for building capacity, control, or deterrence, (iii) targets in ongoing conflicts, and (iv) causes of new conflicts. This enables us to capture a far broader spectrum of security concerns than those which exist in the extant literature and to go well beyond insights derived from climate modelling or game theory by drawing on a novel, rich, and original dataset of expert perceptions.
    ROGER_WILCO
    ROGER_WILCO --- ---
    myslel jsem, ze ho mam odsad a jdu sem na nej zareagovat, ale nejni tu.
    rekl bych, ze velmi validni povidani. dost me to zasahlo. kdyz od nej nahlas slysim, to co ve skrtytu duse tusim a obavam se.. treba predpoklada, ze tretina stromu v evorpe zkolabuje.

    VIZE ČESKA 2024 Přednáška č. 8 - RNDr. Václav Cílek, CSc. (geolog, klimatolog)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=at90nX_OyBg


    In French forests, mortality up 80% in ten years amid massive dieback
    https://www.lemonde.fr/en/environment/article/2023/10/18/in-french-forests-mortality-up-80-in-ten-years-and-massive-dieback_6182945_114.html

    At least one-third of European trees not adapted to global warming
    https://www.lemonde.fr/en/environment/article/2024/04/29/at-least-one-third-of-european-trees-not-adapted-to-global-warming_6669916_114.html

    Climate change-induced background tree mortality is exacerbated towards the warm limits of the species ranges | Annals of Forest Science | Full Text
    https://annforsci.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13595-022-01142-y
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    Starsi dokument BBC Climate Wars... Narazil jsem nahodou, prej stoji za to

    Worth watching indeed. I’d recommend anyone and everyone to watch this series. It’s basic enough for someone with little to no knowledge of this issue, yet presented in such a compelling way that the most experienced climate scientist wouldn’t get bored.

    One of the film’s major strong points was simply the way it was organized. Dr Stewart traced the history of both the science and the politics around climate change, splitting it into three parts:

    Part one: Scientists had known for decades that anthropogenic greenhouse gases could cause warming of the Earth, but now, following thirty years of aerosol-induced cooling, global warming was starting to show; almost every year was record-breaking. James Hansen was the first to “stick his neck out” – testifying to Congress that he believed anthropogenic climate change was underway. He later claimed that he had weighed the risks of being wrong and looking stupid, versus doing nothing and not telling the world about such a huge potential threat. Sort of like an early Greg Craven, I suppose. I found this part to be the least interesting of the three. It also began strangely – Stewart mentioned a letter to the US president, signed by top scientists, which warned of an impending ice age. I’d never heard about this before. Does anyone else know more about this letter?

    Part two: The skeptics fought back as strongly as they could, questioning absolutely every scientific claim regarding global warming. I found this to be absolutely fascinating; it solidifed a lot of issues in my mind and helped to unify my knowledge on the topic. Stewart went through the research which showed that the Earth was warming as a result of human activities – and showed how all the yelling from skeptics helped to make the theory even stronger. He also “infiltrated the walls” of the Heartland Institute’s International Conference on Climate Change, which I found to be absolutely hilarious. They had a comedian making bad jokes about how New York could handle some global warming, Monckton and Singer making their usual accusations of fraud (Stewart remarked that “when these become the talking points, then I know that the scientific debate is really over”), and Patrick Michaels publicly admitting “Yes, the second half of the century did show some warming, and it was the result of human activities…..and now you all hate me for saying that…….” Dr Iain Stewart explained that, even though the controversy doesn’t really exist anymore in the scientific literature, the claims of skeptics still live on in the popular media and on the Internet. Instead of fighting a scientific battle, they’re now doing public relations.

    Part three: Scientists knew that humans were causing global warming, but how bad would it be? After the brilliance of the second part, I wasn’t expecting to enjoy the last segment quite as much…….but I was proven very, very wrong. It both terrified and fascinated me. Terrified because it discussed the Younger Dryas, something I hadn’t really heard of before, where it warmed about 5 C in just a few years. So far beyond anything I thought was possible. When this research was released, the idea that the climate was steady and slow-moving could no longer be embraced.

    Dailymotion
    https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x2w2rb4
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    TUHO: A k tehle knizce ma i pekne stranky koukam

    Global Warming: Understanding the Forecast, a textbook for non-science major undergraduates, Blackwell-Wiley, 2006 with Second Edition 2011. The book is supplemented with a web page of =on-line interactive models which provide the basis for exercises in the book.

    Climate and Carbon Cycle Models
    https://climatemodels.uchicago.edu/
    Kliknutím sem můžete změnit nastavení reklam