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    TUHOKlimaticka zmena / Destroying the Future Is the Most Cost-Effective


    "Given the sheer enormity of climate change, it’s okay to be depressed, to grieve. But please, don’t stay there too long. Join me in pure, unadulterated, righteous anger."


    "I don’t want your hope. I don’t want you to be hopeful. ... I want you to act. Once you start to act, the hope is everywhere."

    "Our best scientists tell us insistently that a calamity is unfolding, that the life-support systems of the Earth are being damaged in ways that threaten our survival. Yet in the face of these facts we carry on as usual."

    Rostouci hladiny oceanu, zmena atmosferickeho proudeni, zmeny v distribuci srazek a sucha. Zmeny karbonoveho, fosforoveho a dusikoveho cyklu, okyselovani oceanu. Jake jsou bezpecnostni rizika a jake potencialni klady dramatickych zmen fungovani zemskeho systemu?
    Ale take jak funguji masove dezinformacni kampane ropneho prumyslu a boj o verejne mineni na prahu noveho klimatickeho rezimu post-holocenu.
    rozbalit záhlaví
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Science journal retracts study on safety of Monsanto’s Roundup: ‘Serious ethical concerns’ | US news | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/dec/05/monsanto-roundup-safety-study-retracted
    CHOSIE
    CHOSIE --- ---
    Polycrisis and Systemic Risk: Assessment, Governance, and Communication

    The emphasis of integrated disaster and risk research has shifted from topical analysis, such as dealing with natural hazard-related disasters, technological accidents, or environmental crises, to a comprehensive analysis of interconnected and mutually interactive risk sources and crises.

    This interaction has often been framed in the language of “polycrisis” indicating the potentially amplifying and cascading effects of each crisis from one domain to the next. At the same time, the literature on systemic risk also includes the effects of multiple, interacting risks on the functionality and survivability of entire systems such as climate stability, cybersecurity, or energy production.

    This review article provides first a summary of the literature on both concepts, explicates the commonalities and differences and develops a risk and crisis concept that builds a bridge between the two research traditions. Based on this concept, the review delineates the implementations of a joint understanding of polycrisis and systemic risk for risk assessment, risk and crisis governance, and effective communication to different audiences.

    Polycrisis and Systemic Risks: New Approaches in Governance and Communication | Research Institute for Sustainability
    https://www.rifs-potsdam.de/en/news/polycrisis-and-systemic-risks-new-approaches-governance-and-communication
    Polycrisis and Systemic Risk: Assessment, Governance, and Communication | International Journal of Disaster Risk Science
    https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13753-025-00636-3
    TADEAS
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    Compromises, voluntary measures and no mention of fossil fuels: key points from Cop30 deal | Cop30 | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/nov/22/roadmaps-adaptations-and-transitions-what-climate-measures-were-agreed-at-cop30

    The roadmap for the transition away from fossil fuels was blocked from the formal Cop30 decision and the Brazilian presidency announced the plan would proceed outside the UN process. It will be merged with a plan backed by Colombia and about 90 other countries, with a summit set for April. This “coalition of the willing” could push progress forward.

    The Cop30 president, André Corrêa do Lago, said the plan to develop the roadmap had the support of President Lula and would involve high-level dialogues over the next year, led by science and involving governments, industry and civil society. Once complete, he said they would report back to Cop.

    “Those governments committed to tackling the climate crisis at its source are uniting to move forward outside the UN, under the leadership of Colombia and Pacific Island states, to phase out fossil fuels rapidly, equitably, and in line with 1.5C,” said Nikki Reisch, at the Center for International Environmental Law. “The international conference next April is the first stop on the path to a livable future.”
    TADEAS
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    Is the Atlantic Ocean circulation close to tipping?
    https://youtu.be/ULJXqOZuY-8?si=24VEbChlMBavA2xz


    Stefan Rahmstorf, professor of Physics of the Oceans, explains the latest science on #AMOC​ shutdown danger in a keynote for ATLAS25 in Helsinki, 23 October 2025.
    TADEAS
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    Elon Musk suggests AI satellites could dial down global warming
    https://interestingengineering.com/space/elon-musk-solar-radiation-management-geoengineering

    while Musk’s companies have unmatched reach in space infrastructure, scaling an SRM system to planetary levels is another story. “It would be far easier said than done,” as one analyst put it, especially given that even the most advanced SRM proposals remain largely theoretical.

    Beyond the science, there’s also geopolitics. Who decides when and how to shade the planet? And what happens if one nation’s cooling efforts trigger droughts in another?

    there’s no indication SpaceX is working on SRM-capable satellites. For now, the comment seems more like a thought experiment than a corporate roadmap.

    Yet Musk’s timing is telling. With heat records being broken year after year, and progress on emissions lagging, even the most radical climate ideas are starting to sound less far-fetched
    XCHAOS
    XCHAOS --- ---
    Why the for-profit race into solar geoengineering is bad for science and public trust | MIT Technology Review
    https://www.technologyreview.com/2025/11/04/1127532/why-the-for-profit-race-into-solar-geoengineering-is-bad-for-science-and-public-trust/
    (na paywall mi funguje anonymní okno browseru)
    TADEAS
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    James Hansen & Clare Farrell - Climate Reckoning in ATLAS25, Operaatio Arktis
    https://youtu.be/Y2UME_Z8oig?si=QfncJgk0QZ6qKb_g


    James Hansen—the NASA scientist who first alerted the world to climate change in 1988—brings groundbreaking findings that explain why global temperatures suddenly spiked in 2023-2024, leaving even climate scientists baffled. His research reveals that we've entered a period of accelerated warming that changes everything we thought we knew about climate timelines.

    In conversation with Clare Farrell, co-founder of Extinction Rebellion UK, Hansen will present evidence that the climate science community has been systematically underestimating both the speed and scale of change. Together, they'll explore why current climate assessments miss critical signals and what this means for our situation and the tools needed to address it.

    Following Hansen's 30-minute presentation, Farrell will lead an interview about what these findings mean for our societies, our souls, our politics, and the movements fighting for climate justice. If we have entered a new era of human and planetary history, what is asked of us as communities, as institutions, or as a species?
    CHOSIE
    CHOSIE --- ---
    TADEAS:
    Za mě zkrátka za těch pár let co od něj občas něco vidím se snaží diskreditovat to co vybočuje z mainstreamu a přibarvuje realitu (podobně jako Gates/Richie, jestli si pamatuji byla mezi nimi i nějaká spolupráce) a označení "hopium" je na místě - můj problém tedy je, že to není vědecky upřímné - například jako argument používá zjednodušené ZEC modely a TCRE/CWC odhady, zatímco kritizuje ECS odhady a ignoruje ESS. Nemluvě o výrocích, které jsou lživé.

    To že potom hází do jednoho pytle to co vybočuje (např. James Hansen, či obecně kritika IPCC apod.) společně s lidmi, kteří propagují NTHE (near-term human extinction) - např. McPherson, Dowd - je přinejmenším nečestné. A stejně lze za "nečestné" a "neupřímné" označit ty, kteří NTHE hlásají, je to v podstatě druhá strana mince.

    Takže to není jen o nějaké bublině, tady se bavíme o datech, která selektivně ignoruje. Pokud je třeba ta zmíněná kritika IPCC nebo publikace Hansena fakticky špatná, tak to lze přeci obhájit vědecky místo škatulkování, že jsou to všechno "doomeři". A poté tuto škatuly, do které hází široké spektrum vědců a expertů nazývá "mentální poruchou", H. Richie "horší než popírači" (oprava mé předchozí zprávy)

    Some of the friendly fire comes from fellow scientists who have gone down the path of doomism or at least what we might call "soft doomism," that is, emissions reductions alone are not adequate to prevent catastrophic warming.

    Even revered climate scientist James Hansen, whose early predictions of warming proved prophetic, has gotten sucked into the vortex of soft doomism. The scientific consensus is that we can still avert a catastrophic planetary warming of 1.5 degrees Celsius (3 degrees Fahrenheit) if we rapidly reduce carbon emissions this decade.
    (https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/climate-change/action-on-climate-change-faces-new-threat-the-doomers-who-think-its-too-late-to-act)

    Nicméně samozřejmě jsou mnohem horší lidé a dá se jasně říct, že "taháme za stejný provaz", jen jsme myslím v dostatečně specifickém vláknu, kde je prostor na pro tuto diskuzi.

    Další materiál k tématu:

    I read Michael Mann’s The New Climate War so you don’t have to. – Another End of the World is Possible
    https://anotherendoftheworld.org/2021/03/23/i-read-michael-manns-the-new-climate-war-so-you-dont-have-to/

    GBU Episode 2: Good Bad & Ugly - Science Communicators - Michael Mann / Bill Nye Corporate Shills.
    https://youtu.be/YxMCxgv5wGE
    TADEAS
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    https://www.youtube.com/live/6SPrGEY6r0c?si=nG8UcwfkzKow6HuL

    In this Climate Chat episode, we interview climate scientist Andrew Dessler on his recent paper that debunks the "climate denial" report that was issued by the U.S. Department of Energy.

    Andrew Dessler is a climate scientist who studies both the science and politics of climate change. He is a Professor of Atmospheric Sciences and director of Texas A&M’s Texas Center for Climate Studies.
    TADEAS
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    Trump calls climate science a ‘con job’. That could make tackling the crisis a whole lot easier | Francesco Grillo | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/oct/13/donald-trump-withdrawal-paris-agreement-tackling-climate-crisis-easier

    Paradoxically, Trump’s reversal provides an opportunity for others to advance the climate agenda: to sketch out the blueprint of a possible new world order without the US, even if Washington was the architect of the old one.

    A new arrangement could even emerge at the UN climate summit, Cop30, in Brazil next month. Success will depend on the leadership capability of an unlikely duo: the host country, which is one of the founding Brics nations, and the EU, still the core political community in a fractured western alliance.
    CHOSIE
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    Jinak před pár dny vyšla publikace EAT-Lancet, na téma zdravých, udržitelných a spravedlivých potravinových systémů. Jedním z autorů je Johan Rockström a obecně pracuje s daty Planetárních mezí.
    https://www.thelancet.com/commissions-do/EAT-2025

    A článek
    Even if the entire world transitions away from fossil fuels, the way we farm and eat will cause global temperatures to rise 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels.

    The new report builds on the commission’s first report, published in 2019 — an enormous undertaking that examined how to meet the nutritional needs of a growing global population while staying within planetary boundaries. It was highly influential and widely cited in both policy and academic literature, but it was also ruthlessly attacked in an intensive smear campaign by meat industry-aligned groups, academics, and influencers — a form of “mis- and disinformation and denialism on climate science.”

    “The diets of the richest 30% of the global population contribute to more than 70% of the environmental pressures from food systems,” the new report reads.

    If globally adopted, this plant-rich diet would prevent up to 15 million premature deaths each year.

    EAT-Lancet 2.0: Major climate study finds rich countries must eat less meat, more plant-based diets | Vox
    https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/463643/eat-lancet-plant-based-diet-climate-week
    odemknuto: https://archive.ph/mDDob

    CHOSIE
    CHOSIE --- ---
    XCHAOS: Životnost něco mezi 1000-3000 let no, a GWP (global warming potential) v řádu 100 let 23500, v řádu 500 let 32600.. horší je snad možná jen CF4 (Tetrafluoromethan) nebo C2F6 (Hexafluoroethan) a to kvůli mnohem delší životnosti. Zatím je pouze návrh o jeho zákazu, ale to zatím myslím není odsouhlaseno a jednalo by se stejně jen o EU.

    Nějaké cesty jak s tím nakládat jsou, ale žádná sláva, takže je to zatím spíše o tom zabránit úniku a bezpečně uložit, to bezpečně je dle mého pochybné, podobně jako s jaderným odpadem.
    Disposal methods, health effects and emission regulations for sulfur hexafluoride and its by-products
    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0304389421010712
    The SF6 gas alone has no immediate impact on the environment due to its inert nature. Despite that, the staggering global warming potential it has can cause a serious problem in the long run. It is a greenhouse gas that accumulates in the atmosphere which captures the heat released from the earth’s surface and reflects it.

    The disposal methods for SF6 involves the complete decomposition of the gas which is categorized into the conventional and advanced approaches. Incineration is the most common conventional method being practiced. The issues associated with cost and toxic by-products formation sparked the search and development for alternative technologies such as NTP.

    Based on the literature as a whole, the only issues that are hindering the NTP techniques from maturing are the combination of power supply, additive gases, flowrates, concentrations and length of reactor that will result in the highest possible decomposition efficiency of SF6 and the removal of its toxic counterparts from being released to the environment. The experiments mainly focus on small-scale plasma systems that utilize very small volumes and flowrates.


    Sulfur Hexafluoride (SF6) Basics
    https://www.epa.gov/eps-partnership/sulfur-hexafluoride-sf6-basics
    The most common use for and largest emission source of SF6, both domestically and internationally, is as an electrical insulator in high-voltage equipment that transmits and distributes electricity. Approximately 67% of all SF6 emissions in the United States is attributed to the electrical transmission and distribution sector in 2022 based on the Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks.

    SF6-containing equipment is designed to avoid emitting any of this gas into the atmosphere. However, SF6 gas can inadvertently escape as leaks develop during various stages of the equipment's lifecycle, including manufacturing, installation, maintenance and servicing, and de-commissioning. In some cases, significant leaks can occur from aging equipment.

    Several factors affect SF6 emissions from electric power systems, such as the type and age of the SF6-containing equipment (e.g., old circuit breakers can contain up to 2,000 pounds of SF6, while modern breakers usually contain less than 100 pounds) and the handling and maintenance procedures practiced by electric utilities.

    TADEAS
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    A method to identify positive tipping points to accelerate low-carbon transitions and actions to trigger them | Sustainability Science
    https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11625-025-01704-9

    Meeting the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to “well below 2 °C” requires a radical acceleration of action, as the global economy is decarbonising at least five times too slowly. Tipping points, where low-carbon transitions become self-propelling, could be key to achieving the necessary acceleration. We deem these normatively ‘positive’, because they can limit considerable, inequitable harms from global warming and help achieve sustainability. Some positive tipping points, such as the UK’s elimination of coal power, have already been reached at national and sectoral scales. The challenge now is to credibly identify further potential positive tipping points, and the actions that can bring them forward, whilst avoiding wishful thinking about their existence, or oversimplification of their nature, drivers, and impacts. Hence, we propose a methodology for identifying potential positive tipping points, assessing their proximity, identifying the factors that can influence them, and the actions that can trigger them. Building on relevant research, this ‘identifying positive tipping points’ (IPTiP) methodology aims to establish a common framework that we invite fellow researchers to help refine, and practitioners to apply. To that end, we offer suggestions for further work to improve it and make it more applicable.
    BUBBLE
    BUBBLE --- ---
    Lide mazou emaily aby ulehcili datacentrum (a zbylo vic vody pro LLM)

    Budoucnost je úžasná™

    UK government suggests deleting files to save water | The Verge
    https://www.theverge.com/science/758275/drought-delete-files-email-data-center-water-uk
    TADEAS
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    The Trump administration is... - Alt National Park Service
    https://www.facebook.com/AltUSNationalParkService/posts/1172892791547578

    The Trump administration is moving from denying climate change to rewriting it. Energy Secretary Chris Wright, a longtime oil industry executive, just announced plans to “update” past National Climate Assessments, the gold-standard, peer-reviewed reports that lay out the risks of the climate crisis in detail.

    Scientists are calling this their “worst fears” come true. Why? Because this isn’t about adding new data, it’s about erasing inconvenient truths. The administration has already:

    - Fired hundreds of scientists working on the next report.
    - Pulled past climate reports from public websites.
    - Released a so-called “study” by climate contrarians that downplays the danger of carbon pollution.

    This isn’t the first time we’ve seen political leaders try to rewrite reality. From the Bush administration editing climate reports in the 2000s, to authoritarian regimes rewriting history books, the tactic is always the same. Manipulate the facts so you can justify harmful policies.

    Climate scientist Michael Mann compared it to “exactly what Joseph Stalin did”, because Stalin was infamous for altering historical records, airbrushing people out of photos, and replacing facts with state-approved propaganda.

    And remember this isn’t just any official doing this. It’s an oil man in charge of the Department of Energy, reshaping science to serve the fossil fuel industry.
    Once you change the official record, you can gut regulations, strip protections, and pretend the crisis doesn’t exist. It’s not just science under attack, it’s the truth.
    TADEAS
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    https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adx0298

    An Unprecedented Drying of the Continents: A Decline in Freshwater Availability

    This study analyzes changes in terrestrial water storage—which includes all forms of water stored on land, such as ice, snow, surface water, vegetation water, soil moisture, and groundwater.

    It reveals that since 2002, the continents have experienced an unprecedented loss of terrestrial water storage—a critical indicator of freshwater availability.

    Each year, areas undergoing drying have expanded by an amount equivalent to twice the size of California, creating “mega-dry” regions across the Northern Hemisphere. While most of the world’s dry areas are getting drier and wet areas wetter, the rate of drying is now outpacing the rate of wetting. This shift is driven by water losses in high latitudes, severe droughts in Central America and Europe, and widespread groundwater depletion—which alone accounts for 68% of the non-glacial continental water loss.

    “The drying of the continents has profound global consequences. Since 2002, 75% of the world’s population has lived in 101 countries that have lost freshwater. Furthermore, continents now contribute more to sea level rise than ice sheets do, with drying regions contributing more than glaciers and ice sheets combined. Urgent action is needed to prepare for the major impacts highlighted by these findings.”

    The Rise of Mega-Dry Regions on Land

    Previous studies identified key features of changing terrestrial water storage across continents, consistent with climate model projections, glacier and ice sheet melt, global groundwater depletion, and shifts in flood and drought extremes. This study demonstrates how recent regional and continental trends in water storage are accelerating continental drying.

    Implications for Freshwater Availability

    Today, excessive groundwater pumping is the main driver behind the decline in terrestrial water storage in drying regions. It significantly worsens the effects of rising temperatures, increased aridity, and extreme drought. Continued overexploitation of groundwater—such as what's happening in California at an accelerating pace—threatens both regional and global water and food security in ways that remain largely underrecognized worldwide.

    Groundwater depletion is directly influenced by water management decisions—and can also be stopped by them.

    In many areas, once groundwater is depleted, it will not naturally replenish on a human timescale. The disappearance of groundwater from the Earth’s aquifers represents a new and serious threat to humanity, creating cascading risks that are rarely considered in environmental policy, water management, or governance. This is an intergenerational resource that is being poorly managed—or not managed at all—by today’s societies, at a tremendous and deeply underestimated cost to future generations.

    Protecting the world’s groundwater reserves is essential in a warming world and on continents we now know are drying out.

    A Call to Action

    Just as efforts to slow climate change are faltering, so too are efforts to curb the drying of the continents.

    Key policy decisions and new management strategies—particularly those promoting groundwater sustainability at both national and regional levels—alongside international initiatives for global groundwater sustainability, can help safeguard this vital resource for generations to come.

    Major, coordinated efforts—national, international, global, and transdisciplinary—are urgently needed to raise awareness and spur action on the drying of the continents and the decline in freshwater availability.
    TADEAS
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    Hansen

    We, and young people, need help from people who understand the essence of climate science. See

    Forest versus Trees
    https://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2025/ForestTrees.06August2025.pdf


    or its abbreviation:

    Seeing the Forest for the Trees
    https://mailchi.mp/caa/seeing-the-forest-for-the-trees


    also available on my Substack:




    Seeing the Forest for the Trees - by James Hansen
    https://jimehansen.substack.com/p/seeing-the-forest-for-the-trees

    Summary: seeing the forest for the trees

    Climate change depends on climate sensitivity and the strength of the forcing that drives change. Of the main sources of information – paleoclimate, modern observations, and GCMs – the first two are least ambiguous, but all three are consistent with climate sensitivity 4.5°C ± 1°C (2σ, 95% confidence) for doubled CO2, which excludes IPCC’s best estimate of climate sensitivity (3°C for doubled CO2). IPCC also underestimates the strength of the aerosol climate forcing.

    In the real world, climate sensitivity and aerosol forcing are independent, but they are joined at the hip in climate assessments that focus on the ability of GCMs to reproduce observed global warming. It is reasonable that climate modelers use observed global temperature change to help constrain the GCMs. The complication is that there are two major unknowns: climate sensitivity (mainly because the cloud feedback is uncertain) and the climate forcing (because the aerosol forcing is unmeasured), while there is only one hard constraint (the observed global warming rate). As a result, if climate sensitivity turns out to be high, greater aerosol forcing (i.e., greater aerosol cooling) is required for agreement with observed global temperature.

    Independent sources of information, from paleoclimate on climate sensitivity and from satellite data on the cloud feedback, show that, in reality, climate sensitivity is high. Thus, aerosol forcing (and the aerosol cooling effect) have also been underestimated by IPCC. In addition, aerosol cooling has weakened since 2005, mainly because of reduced emissions from China and ships.

    Those are the principal conclusions of our two papers (“Global warming in the pipeline” and “Global warming has accelerated”) that address the fundamental issues of climate sensitivity and the human-made climate forcing. These issues are a large part of the “forest” of climate science.

    Within that part of the climate science forest, many uncertainties remain. For example, how does the cloud feedback work? Tselioudis et al.[3] suggest that it is mainly from a poleward shifting of climate zones, as opposed to an effect of global warming on cloud microphysics. It is important to understand such issues, as the correct explanation may affect the continuing climate change.

    Another example: we argue that reduction of ship aerosols has more effect on global temperature than reduction of aerosols from China, even if the mass reduction of Chinese emissions is larger. Ships emissions are more efficient in affecting clouds because they are injected into relatively pristine ocean air at altitudes that have greatest effect on cloud formation. Observed global distributions of albedo and temperature change are consistent with a large role for ship emissions, although alternative explanations for those distributions may be possible. Temporal changes of albedo and temperature also match better with the 2015 and 2020 changes of ship emissions, rather than with the decrease of emissions from China, which began in 2006.

    The forest of climate science includes other areas – besides climate sensitivity and climate forcings – that are also important. For example, potential impacts of climate change include shutdown of the overturning ocean circulation and large sea level rise,[4] which may be the most important of all the climate issues. These climate impacts depend on the magnitude of global warming, which is a reason to first consider climate sensitivity and climate forcings.
    SHEFIK
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    Accelerated doom :)

    ...

    Novel Greenland Glacier Melt Event: Subglacial Lake Bursts Through the Ice Surface

    We thought we understood how ice melts, but the latest science discovers a new mechanism, which speeds up ice loss…
    youtu.be/h3Ff-AFth5g?si…

    https://x.com/PaulHBeckwith/status/1952922251273327022?t=M8sQuiigm3uR8OsMuEYzqw&s=19
    TADEAS
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    Sustainable Global Cooling | Dr. Ye Tao MEER Presentation – LCAW 2025
    https://youtu.be/jo4ImWevZQo?si=q4HbMgFNyAdtP0iT


    In this compelling talk, Ye Tao, founder of the MEER initiative (Mirrors for Earth's Energy Rebalancing), presents the principles of sustainable global cooling—a strategy rooted in science, constrained by real-world limits of energy and material availability.
    Kliknutím sem můžete změnit nastavení reklam