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    VSOUKOLOHLOREnergetika a energie v politické a hospodářské perspektivě
    JIMIQ
    JIMIQ --- ---
    Jinak ta India, ale treba i Cina - lidi (konzultanti?) videj ze navysujou spotrebu fosilu a myslej si ze to bude stejne i za dvacet let. Ale zapominaji na exponencialni krivku renewables
    JIMIQ
    JIMIQ --- ---
    MAKROUSEK: ok, navysuju - uz 2032 se celosvetove vyrobi 50% elektriny ze slunce a vetru (loni 2700, letos 3100 TWh a 2032 dejme tomu 16000 TWh)
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    MAKROUSEK: me prijdes jak unavenej konzultant, co vzal job v lobbyingu a pred duchodem pije svoje posledni kaficko :)


    Tak co treba na indii Irena:

    India installed 13 gigawatts (GW) of renewables in 2021 and has grown its capacity by over 53 GW in the last five years, positioning it as one of the fastest growing renewable energy adopters in the world. With massive renewable energy potential, India has an aim to become a major producer of green hydrogen to support the decarbonisation of its industrial economy. According to IRENA, hydrogen will account for around 12 per cent of total energy supply in a 1.5°C world by 2050.

    India and IRENA Strengthen Ties as Country Plans Major Renewables and Hydrogen Push
    https://www.irena.org/newsroom/pressreleases/2022/Jan/India-and-IRENA-Strengthen-Ties-as-Country-Plans-Major-Renewables-and-Hydrogen-Push
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    JIMIQ: Ok, ja tvrdim, ze globalni energeticka transformace do roku 2050 je nevynutelna.
    Argumenty pro:
    a] Vedecky poznani dodava durazny varovani o katastrrofickejch skodach, pokud neprobehne
    b] Siroce rozeznany a vteleny do cely rady politickejch zavazku, ktery se tvrde vybojovavali po minimalne tri dekady a nedaj se jentak skrtnout
    c] Technologickej prulom uspory z rozsahu, stejne jako zmena legilsativniho prostredi udelaj fosilni altenrnativu neperspektivni

    d] Tohle je takovej bonus: a to jsou soudni spory za masivni skody zpusobeny klimatickyma zmenama, ktery budou dopadat na fosilni prumysl...
    MAKROUSEK
    MAKROUSEK --- ---
    JIMIQ: A ja tvrdim, ze urcite v Evrope a ve Statech se zvysi podil vyroby elektriny z renewables, ale celosvetove rozhodne nebudeme ani na 50%. A to nemluvim o energii potrebne treba na vyrobu a dopravu vsech tech veci, ta bude porad fosilni.
    JIMIQ
    JIMIQ --- ---
    Ale hlavne bychom meli zacit hypotezou - co se kdo snazi dokazat. Abychom se vyhli goal movingu.

    Ja tvrdim ze globalni energeticka transformace do 2050 je nejen mozna ale i pravdepodobna a nezruinuje to celosvetovou ekonomiku.
    MAKROUSEK
    MAKROUSEK --- ---
    TUHO: Viz nize.
    MAKROUSEK
    MAKROUSEK --- ---
    JIMIQ: Klido. Ale lze ocekavat, ze podil rozvojovych zemi na primarni energii bude stoupat, neni-liz pravda?
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    MAKROUSEK: A budes analyzovat podobne jako s tim "nebudem mit kde pestovat rostliny" nebo uz se budes bavit jako dospelej? :)
    JIMIQ
    JIMIQ --- ---
    MAKROUSEK: tak to prosim delej dle spotrebovane energie a ne poctu lidi
    JIMIQ
    JIMIQ --- ---
    MAKROUSEK: 17% lidi ale jen 5,2% primarni energie ;)
    MAKROUSEK
    MAKROUSEK --- ---
    JIMIQ: Rozhodne. Pojdme si doplnit tedy analyzu zbylych 96% sveta, shall we?
    JIMIQ
    JIMIQ --- ---
    MAKROUSEK: to je doslova definice analyzy - rozdelit si problem na mensi casti :))
    MAKROUSEK
    MAKROUSEK --- ---
    Na jare jsem mel na sve konferenci Inda, ktery povidal o trendech v Indii (mimochodem 17% populace lidstva). Zde je obrazek, ktery vypovida sam o sobe. Jak moc prechazeji v Indii na renewables.

    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    TUHO: Odhadovani miry skod otepleni jsem zapomnel dodat :)
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    JIMIQ: Dik, to je dobry :) Mimochodem jako sarlatana ho ten clanek neodhaluje, jenom rika, ze par veci tam ma dost blbe. On Smil ma obrovskej zaber a obcas klouze po povrhcu. Treba pri odhadovani miry skod opira o prace Williama Nordhause, ktera je vicemene pavedeckej bullshit (aneb jeho damage function je zalozena na uplny bizarnosti - korelaci mezi prumernou teplotou a GDP, no kidding)... Nordhaus je jinak obecne celkem cenenej, takze chudak Smil si mysli, ze je to kredibilni zdroj.

    Jinak v tom clanku je celkem zasadni tohle:

    See that huge gray box on the upper right, the biggest box on this chart? That’s all the primary energy that gets thrown away due to losses in conversion to useful forms of energy, in distribution or in use. The vast majority of that is waste heat from burning fossil fuels.

    Why is this important? Well, it’s important because we don’t have to replace all of the primary energy we use today, we have to replace the energy used productively in energy services as efficiently as possible.

    Smil seems to ignore the electrification of everything which is running in lockstep with the growth of renewables. Electric buses are already cutting into oil demand to the tune of 300,000 barrels of oil a day. Heat pumps are a massive growth market displacing gas furnaces and less efficient air conditions globally, with one of the world leaders, Daikin, building a megafactory for them in Texas.

    Primary energy demand is going to shrink, not grow. Electricity is vastly more efficient to distribute and is vastly more efficient to transform into useful electricity services. That’s why everything is already trending there. And solid state electronics are making formerly energy gulping electrical appliances and making them vastly more efficient as well, with LED lights being only the most obvious example.


    MAKROUSEK
    MAKROUSEK --- ---
    PALEONTOLOG: Presne tak. O tom tady celou dobu mluvim.
    MAKROUSEK
    MAKROUSEK --- ---
    JIMIQ: Treba tenhle clanek je typicka ukazka konzultantskych blabolu. Globalni cisla se nam nehodi, tak si vezmeme podmnozinu tech, ktera odpovidaji nasim cilovym hodnotam a prohlasime, ze jde o globalni trend. V USA zije zavratnych 4% lidskych bytosti. Proto musime z techto 4% odvodit globalni trendy ;-)))
    JIMIQ
    JIMIQ --- ---
    V USA se letos pouze na strechach postavi dost panelu aby pokryly 1% elektriny (ctyrikrat tolik mimo strech (21.5GW) a podobne vetru)
    Kliknutím sem můžete změnit nastavení reklam