Coronavirus augurs the inevitable collapse of a global economy in ‘overshoot’ | Al Arabiya English
https://english.alarabiya.net/...gurs-the-inevitable-collapse-of-a-global-economy-in-overshoot-.html
The coronavirus, in itself, is a minor perturbation, but the system is poised for collapse and the pandemic could trigger it. We already saw how the world’s economy is fragile: it nearly collapsed in 2008 under the relatively small perturbation of the crash of the US subprime mortgage market. At that time, it was possible to contain the damage but, today, the fragility of the system has not improved and the coronavirus pandemic may be a stronger perturbation. The collapse of entire sectors of the economy, such as the tourism industry (more than 10 percent of the world’s gross product), is already under way. It may be impossible to stop collapse from spreading to other sectors.
So, what exactly is it going to happen to us? Are we destined to leave an era of unprecedented prosperity to one defined by poverty? Will the coming crisis turn out to be so bad that it pushes us back to the Middle Ages?
It is true that all major epidemics in history have seen a robust rebound after the collapse. Consider that, in mid-14th century, the Black Death killed perhaps 40 percent of the population of Europe but, a century later, Europeans were discovering America and starting their attempt to conquer the world. It may be that the Black Death was instrumental in this rebound: the temporary reduction of the European population freed up the resources necessary for a new leap forward.
Could we see a similar rebound of our society in the future? Why not? After all, the coronavirus could be doing us a favor by forcing us to abandon the fossil fuels we use today. The current low market prices are the result of a contraction in demand and could be the straw that breaks the back of the oil industry. That will leave space for new and more efficient technologies. Today, solar and wind energy has become so cheap that it is possible to think of a society fully based on renewable energy. It won’t be easy, but recent studies show that it can be done.
That doesn’t mean that we can avoid a collapse in the near term. The transition to a new energy infrastructure will require enormous investments, which will likely be absent during the period of economic contraction we expect for the near future. But, in the long run, the transition is unavoidable and there is hope for a rebound toward a new economy based on clean and renewable energy, no more plagued by the threats of depletion and climate change