TADEAS, TADEAS, TADEAS:

The WORLD6 Integrated System Dynamics Model: Examples of Results from Simulations. | Request PDF
https://www.researchgate.net/...ntegrated_System_Dynamics_Model_Examples_of_Results_from_Simulations

dl: https://portal.research.lu.se/...results-from-simulations(65f0981a-bcb8-4f99-a3d6-fab108ac3ff4).html

The WORLD6 model is a fully integrated dynamic world systems model. It includes a biophysical global economic model, based on first principles of physics and thermodynamics, forcing it to be fully consistent with the underlying mass- and energy balances. The WORLD6 model first creates value from extraction of natural resources, input of human labour, the efficiency effect of mechanization and automation, the effect of innovation and their use in manufacturing of goods and services, and the secondly does monetization through market mechanisms and debt financing. The model includes 7 different capital stocks for: (1) industrial resource extraction, (2) industrial manufacture, (3) social service capital, (4) agricultural capital for land use and food production, (5) military capital, (6) speculative capital tied up in derivatives, real estate, consumer credits, (7) criminal or illegal capital. There are 3 different debt pools; (1) general, (2) speculative and (3) pensions. These are all linked through a number of feedbacks in the system to resource extraction, energy production, population dynamics, food production and phosphorus extraction, manufacture of consumer goods and services. The WORLD6 model connects to environmental pollution with feedbacks and inputs to human health and climate change inside the model. The model includes money flows, stocks as well as debt dynamics and how this is connected to the capital base and the governance. The WORLD6 model has earlier been extensively tested on natural resource extraction rates, resource ore grades, supply volumes and market price for resources with very good success. The WORLD6 model system was tested in its economic aspects against observed GDP for the period 1850 to 2015 and GDP per capita, commodity prices, extraction rates and resource supply rates with good success. These results were obtained from first principles only and without calibrating the model to any type of data time-series

XCHAOS: tenhle článek mi připadá skvělý, není moc složitý, ale obsahuje všechny důležitý pointy, není příliš konfrontační, dobře vysvětluje i docela složitý jevy. Vhodný ke sdílení.
Jak to dostat k Pepovi z hospody, ať se zamyslí, jestli fakt potřebuje další motorku nebo k Alence z HR, jestli musí ve volné chvilce letět na druhej konec světa?
Je to teda z Postupimi, dle Pokorného tvrdá ideologická propaganda... :)

OMNIHASH: to je brilantni analyza

Italians Can Now Install Rooftop Solar PV Systems For Free | CleanTechnica
https://cleantechnica.com/...0/05/23/italians-can-now-install-rooftop-solar-pv-systems-for-free/amp/

“The Italian government has allocated €55 billion ($60 billion) in stimulus perks through the Relaunch Decree on Economic Stimulus Measures to help revive the country’s economy as it slowly exits its Covid-19 lockdown,” pv magazine reports.

The new policy builds off of what was already called an “eco-bonus,” which is a tax rebate for certain green projects. Sustainably focused building-renovation projects can now get a 110% tax rebate instead of a 65% rebate, and PV installations and storage systems associated with such projects also get 110%, instead of the previous 50%. If not linked to qualifying renovation projects, the tax rebate will remain at 50%.

...

The program currently runs from July 1, 2020, to Dec. 31, 2021.

“The authorities will apply the 110% tax break to three types of renovation projects, including building insulation, the replacement of cooling and heating systems in multi-unit apartment buildings, and the replacement of cooling and heating systems in single-family homes,” pv magazine continues. “All PV projects linked to building renovations that will not be included in these categories will not be granted the super eco-bonus, but will still be awarded the 50% tax break.

“Homeowners will have three ways in which to secure the eco-bonus: through the tax deduction over a period of five years, via the transfer of the tax-deductible allowance for installers and product suppliers, and through invoiced discounts. With the first option only, homeowners will have to accept the initial investment costs, while with the other two options, no initial spending will be required.

Italian homeowners can now install PV systems for free – pv magazine International
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/05/22/italian-homeowners-can-now-install-pv-systems-for-free/

Česko a Balkán požadují natural gas jako řešení klimatu

EXCLUSIVE: Eight EU states back ‘natural gas’ in net-zero transition – EURACTIV.com
https://www.euractiv.com/.../news/exclusive-eight-eu-states-back-natural-gas-in-net-zero-transition/

TADEAS:

We have built the new generation of model that can calculate how many materials we will need to make all products. The smartphone I’m holding now, the computer you’re behind, the door handles in your house, the cutlery in your kitchen. The current models calculate how many materials we’ll need to make all of this. And how much comes back and is recycled. We then see two things. There is an incredible amount of materials in circulation, and we have an increasing number of people achieving a high standard of living. A billion Chinese want the same door handles we have, ten per house. That involves billions of handles and huge quantities of material. We are now in a phase to meet that demand

But not many of those door handles come back for reuse. We usually throw them away. This linear use is fast and wasteful. We burn through our things very quickly. This leads to an enormous accumulation, and means that we will peak for nearly all raw materials between 2030 and 2070.”

...

“For some technical applications, the materials used are so specific that they cannot be replaced. It means that if you run out of platinum, you can no longer make a complete product such as a catalyst to convert electricity into hydrogen or hydrogen to electricity in a car afterwards. Or it means that when you can’t make a product with exotic materials anymore, it weighs 14 kilos instead of 140 grams, making production impossible. When your aircraft is broken and your flight is cancelled, that craft is not immediately replaceable by another: it has already been booked. The potential of substitution that economists would like to see as the rescue, is very limited. It can be applied to niche products, but not to bulk products and very large quantities.”

...

The generations after 2100 will face serious material shortages. And if they can be extracted anywhere, we will find them in a less pure form than today’s stocks. This means that the extraction will cost more energy, in a world that may have less energy to use. Those energy costs are already increasing every year. The number of available sources in our geological stocks is also decreasing year by year. Iron extraction alone will take up 30 percent of the total energy demand on Earth by 2070. That is a lot! What are we going to do then? Are we saying goodbye to the Iron Age? Are we going back to ... what? We simply cannot let it come to that. We must change our ways.”

...

But in Europe we don’t have a resources strategy? “The Germans are working on it. This is a total strategy. Where do we get our resources from? Who has these materials? How do we create efficient use within our own national system? How much service do we get from every kilo of raw material and how do we maintain this level?”

...

Harry Lehmann at the German Environmental Protection Agency ... realised that an Energiewende also included a Resourcewende. To realise the turnaround, Germany needs all those critical materials to be able to build the right technology at the right time. But a Socialwende is also needed, in which our behaviour changes, our business, our society. It will not make our life unpleasant, but it will be a little bit different.”

Here's a recent interview with Harald Sverdrup about his World7 modeling research, which extends by 4 generations the World3 modeling used by Meadows et al in LtG.

https://www.p-plus.nl/resources/articlefiles/WorldsBookkeeperAVANS.pdf


Harald will be speaking on this research at the r3.0 Conference in Sept:

r3.0 Conference 2020 | Redesign for Resilience & Regeneration for a green, inclusive and open economie
https://conference2020.r3-0.org/


Harald SVERDRUP | PhD | Inland Norway University of Applied Sciences, Hamar | Department of Game Development
https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Harald_Sverdrup





TADEAS, TADEAS, TADEAS

Regenerative Cultures
https://www.consciouslearningtribe.com/events/regenerative-cultures/

Regenerative cultures are unique expressions of the potential inherent in the people and places of a given bioregion. They add value and health to the nested wholeness from local, to regional, to global, in the understanding that whether humanity thriving critically depends on healthy ecosystems and a life-supporting biosphere.

In strengthening regenerative economic activities, we need to learn balance. Between efficiency and resilience; collaboration and competition; diversity and coherence; organizations of all sizes and needs.

Regenerative economics is an economic system that works to regenerate capital assets: assets that provide goods and/or services that are required for – or contribute to – our wellbeing. We need to recognise the earth as the original capital asset. Without trying to reduce the intrinsic value of life to only utilitarian value to humanity, nor trying to make living capital convertible to financial capital, which would enable the most dangerous form of enclosure to the remaining ecological commons!

Regenerative leadership is a process of personal development that aligns one’s own way of being and actions with the wider pattern of life’s evolutionary journey within the communities, ecosystems, biosphere and Universe we participate in.

We need to search for new ways to restore ecosystems, celebrate cultural diversity, initiate a worldview change, and facilitate the transition towards diverse cultures that regenerate not just vital resources and community resilience, but contribute to the health and vitality of nature’s life support systems. Such cultures will assure the future of life as a whole and not merely sustain a humanity divorced from its roots and alienated from the ground of its own being.

Jakub Hruska
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=3191318027598787&id=100001618623197

Planetární emise CO2 "klesly" během koronavirové krize zhruba na úroveň roku 2006. To je tedy dost frustrující poznatek, protože to mediálně vypadalo, že se celý svět úplně zastavil. Letadla nelétala (ale bacha, soukromá letecká doprava klesla oproti té komerční, co s ní létáme my smrtelníci, mnohem méně), auta nejezdila, výroba nevyráběla. Ale evidentně to byl jen klam. Protože rok 2006 byl "před chvílí". A hlavně to brzy zase všechno na cestě k zářným konzumním zítřkům zase doženeme.
Mě z toho bohužel vyplývá, že snižování planetárních emisí CO2 je mnohem těžší úkol, než jsem si dosud myslel. A elektromobilama to tedy nespravíme, to je jistý. I Pařížská dohoda je cár papíru, to je bohužel už taky jistý. Jsem z toho trochu malomyslnej, a vyplývá mi z toho, že se musíme mnohem víc soustředit na adaptaci - protože např. přizpůsobení krajiny suchu (a přívalovým srážkám) je zcela v našich domácích rukou, zatímco radikální omezení emisí skleníkových plynů je celoplanetární písemka, ze které zatím máme čistou pětku.

špekulace



Due to COVID-19, there is a real chance that 2019 will be the year in which global CO2 emissions peaked.

If trends in GDP growth and decarbonization had continued emissions would have peaked around 2024. Now there is a real chance they won't ever return to 2019 levels. 1/3 https://t.co/jPbGTOgQFU

Bumblebees speed up flowering by piercing plants
https://phys.org/news/2020-05-bumblebees-piercing.html

Seth Itzkan:
This story about bees and flowers reminded me about cows and soil. Where bees speedup flowering with leaf piercing, cows stimulate photosynthesis, carbon capture and root exudation by grazing. Nature, it turns out, wants to be foraged. Appetite is a good thing. The “diets” we want to discuss here, are those sculpted in the image of the great Mademoiselle herself. That’ll keep us cool and her happy.

TADEAS:

Have Merkel & Macron just announced a eurobond-funded godsend for the EU? - DiEM25
https://diem25.org/have-merkel-macron-just-announced-a-eurobond-funded-godsend-for-the-eu/

“Even if this latest Merkel-Macron proposal meets the light of day, gets approved, and proceeds exactly as announced (…) it is not a Eurobond. It does not constitute a transfer of debt from member states to the European Union — thus it will not reduce the pressure on Italy on Spain on Greece on France, indeed on Germany, to lessen the austerity wave that’s going to hit our economies next year.”

“It will not end up with small business. It will not end up with those who truly need support in order to survive this huge new recession and the repercussions of the great austerity drive that the European Union’s fiscal stance is going to bring to us next year and the years to come.”

“The European Union will continue to disintegrate as long as these decisions continue to be taken behind closed doors, in castles, in rooms with adults that are not particularly good at even looking after their own interests.”

Why the Merkel-Macron 'Eurobond' announcement isn't what it seems: our view | DiEM25
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=la5A1Um2AuM

Německý klimatolog: Svět nedělá dost, emise dál rostou. Oceány budou tak kyselé, že rozpustí mušle | iROZHLAS - spolehlivé zprávy
https://www.irozhlas.cz/...eplovani-klima-rozhovor-klimatolog-oceany-stefan-rahmstorf_2005231641_eku