Each quarter, Zeke Hausfather runs through all the latest climate data and produces a “state of the climate” report for Carbon Brief. His latest report, published this morning, concludes that “it is now more likely than not that 2020 will be the warmest year for the Earth’s surface since reliable records began in the mid-1800s” (recent decades show in chart above).
This is already a striking statement. But what makes it more so is that 2020 will lack any major El Niño event – a factor that has contributed to most prior record warm years, including the current record-setting year of 2016.
Furthermore, despite the impact of the global Covid-19 lockdowns, the first nine months of the year saw record concentrations of major greenhouse gases – CO2, methane, and nitrous oxide – in the atmosphere. Arctic sea ice extent has also been at record low levels for much of the year and the summer minimum recently clocked in as the second lowest on record after 2012.
We must now wait for the year’s final three months of data to come in to know if 2020 will break the current record.
