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    TUHOKlimaticka zmena / Thank you so much for ruining my day
    YMLADRIS
    YMLADRIS --- ---
    +3
    Zeke Hausfather

    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    +1
    TADEAS: Zapnete si bezpecnostni pasy, pristavame...

    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Guest post: Piecing together the Arctic’s sea ice history back to 1850
    https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-piecing-together-arctic-sea-ice-history-1850/

    IMG-20201213-231532
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    1 odpověď
    IMG-20201213-231151
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    2020 The seasonal and regional transition to an ice‐free Arctic
    https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020GL090825

    Here we present the first regional and seasonal assessment of future Arctic sea ice loss in CMIP6 models under low (SSP126) and high (SSP585) emission scenarios, thus spanning the range of future change. We find that Arctic sea ice loss – at present predominantly limited to the summer season – will under SSP585 take place in all regions and all months. The summer sea ice is lost in all the shelf seas regardless of emission scenario, whereas ice‐free conditions in winter before the end of this century only occur in the Barents Sea. The seasonal transition to ice‐free conditions is found to spread through the Atlantic and Pacific regions, with change starting in the Barents Sea and Chukchi Sea, respectively.
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Greenhouse gas emissions transforming the Arctic into 'an entirely different climate' | Arctic | The Guardian
    https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/08/arctic-report-climate-crisis-wildfires-ice-loss
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    +2
    An overview of the global carbon budget in 2020 has been released - a highly unusual year due to COVID-19...

    + @gcarbonproject: https://t.co/NEK4j8OLCY
    + Summary: https://t.co/onhJKuzfQX
    + Published Report: https://t.co/g3JicuzUCi
    + More Graphics: https://t.co/EExksI4imG https://t.co/ciY9xrCf8O

    IMG-20201213-225727

    IMG-20201213-225724
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    +2
    Unsurprisingly, last month observed the "warmest" temperatures on record in the Siberian #Arctic for the month of November

    [Data from JRA-55 reanalysis] https://t.co/wzPeyOFdvW

    IMG-20201213-225216
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    +2
    Some people say that the Arctic is warming twice as fast as the rest of the Earth.

    But that's not true.

    Over the last 30 years, the Arctic has actually warmed more than 4 times as fast as the global average. https://t.co/3eg9u4fBye

    IMG-20201213-224613
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    +1
    TADEAS: "We must be honest with ourselves - we are ultimately fucked" :D Ne, nejsme na ceste k udrzeni otepleni na 1.5C ani nahodou... Nejsme ani na ceste k tem 2°C.
    JINDRICH
    JINDRICH --- ---
    +1
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    1 odpověď+1
    World is in danger of missing Paris climate target, summit is warned | Climate change | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/...2/world-is-in-danger-of-missing-paris-climate-target-summit-is-warned

    The world is still not on track to fulfil the 2015 Paris climate agreement, the UK’s business secretary Alok Sharma warned, after a summit of more than 70 world leaders on the climate crisis ended with few new commitments on greenhouse gas emissions.

    Sharma said: “[People] will ask ‘Have we done enough to put the world on track to limit warming to 1.5C and protect people and nature from the effects of climate change?’ We must be honest with ourselves – the answer to that is currently no.”
    SEJDA
    SEJDA --- ---
    +1
    JIMIQ: vlastne 100%, kdyz si vezmeme ze jeste pred rokem 2030 dosahnou vrcholu. Ale jedna vec jsou projekce a druha to, ze emise uz ted rostou vyrazne pomaleji nez HDP takze je mozne, ze tech 18 Gt CO2 ani nedosahnou.

    Tady pekne popisuji obdobi 2005-2017 v USA tedy HDP (GDP) vs emise CO2, HDP roste 10-50 %, emise CO2 klesaji 5-40 %
    Which US States Are Decoupling GDP and Emissions? | World Resources Institute
    https://www.wri.org/blog/2020/07/decoupling-emissions-gdp-us
    JIMIQ
    JIMIQ --- ---
    1 odpověď+2
    SEJDA: takže se zavázali k nárůstu o 80% vlastně? :D (18,5 vs 10)
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    TUHO: pokud vim, tak prohlaseni o 2050 neutralite prislo letos. do te doby cina o snizovani emisi co2 nemluvila a k nicemu se nezavazala. nebo mi neco uniklo?
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    1 odpověď
    SHEFIK: oni se “loni nehlasili k nicemu”?
    SEJDA
    SEJDA --- ---
    1 odpověď+2
    JIMIQ: tak budoucnost si nespocitas, ale asi to na pul cesty.
    V roce 2005 meli 2,3 bil. USD a 5,8 mld. t CO2, tj. 2,5 t / 1000 USD.
    Takze kdyz by v roce 2030 meli HDP 21 bil. USD (+/- linearni rust od roku 2005), tak by meli produkovat max. 18.5 mld. t CO2 (35% rustu z roku 2005), pricemz posledni roky produkuji okolo 10 mld. t CO2. Co v clanku nezaznelo je, ze cina opakuje, ze jeste pred rokem 2030 dosahnou vrcholu, tj. hodnota z roku 2030 je az za vrcholem. Nicmene stale plati, ze od roku 2050 chteji byt CO2 neutralni. Tak snad nam nezacnu "nase" CO2 krast ;)
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    1 odpověď+1
    JIMIQ: je to trochu alibistickej zavazek, kterej urcite s degrowth nepocita. ale v horizontu 10ti let je to u nejlidnatejsi zeme sveta porad lepsi, nez kdyz se loni nehlasili k nicemu
    JIMIQ
    JIMIQ --- ---
    2 odpovědi+1
    Nepocital jsem to ale nebude to nakonec tak, ze jelikoz Cinsky HDP v roce 2030 bude trikrat takovy jako 2005, tak ty emise vlastne narostou? :)
    GLOBETROTTER
    GLOBETROTTER --- ---
    SHEFIK: Nepatří to spíš do Nekvalitní novinářské práce? Je tam dost velký rozpor:
    Čínský prezident podle agentury Reuters slíbil do deseti let snížení emisí CO2 v poměru k HDP o 65 procent.
    vs.
    čínský prezident Si Ťin-pching, který ohlásil závazek snížit do roku 2030 emise oxidu uhličitého v poměru k HDP o 65 procent oproti roku 2005
    Kliknutím sem můžete změnit nastavení reklam