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    TUHOKlimaticka zmena / Thank you so much for ruining my day
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    YMLADRIS, TADEAS:

    Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook : CLICCS : Universität Hamburg
    https://www.cliccs.uni-hamburg.de/results/hamburg-climate-futures-outlook.html
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    YMLADRIS:

    Deep decarbonisation requires that we reduce anthropogenic emissions in the first place. In fact, we need a year-on-year reduction in emissions from now until 2050, roughly equivalent to the 7% reductions seen during the COVID-19 pandemic. Since zero-carbon technologies can take decades to scale up and optimise, and lock-in effects commit us to the technologies we choose now for years to come, we also need to act fast.

    To study the social dynamics needed for such a rapid transformation, we looked at ten social drivers of decarbonisation: United Nations climate governance, transnational initiatives, climate-related regulation, climate protests and social movements, climate litigation, corporate responses, fossil fuel divestment, consumption patterns, journalism, and knowledge production. We studied the drivers’ current trajectories, but also the enabling or constraining conditions that influence their future development.

    We found, for example, that consumption will keep growing due to a lack of regulation and strong cultural habits of consumption, “green” or otherwise. While the way in which we consume changed rapidly during the pandemic, shifting online, what and how much we consume is anchored in cultural habits and attitudes.

    We found that divestment – selling investments in fossil-fuel infrastructure – is occurring to some extent, but with unexpected negative spillover effects, such as when nation states divest at home but reinvest in fossil fuels abroad. And we found that social movements have a positive effect in some countries, but it remains uncertain how their political vision will mature after the pandemic, or in key countries like China, where protests do not usually have an influence on national politics.

    None of the drivers show enough momentum to bring about deep decarbonisation by 2050, and two drivers, consumption patterns and corporate responses, actively inhibit it. Our final assessment: even if a partial decarbonisation is currently plausible, deep decarbonisation by the year 2050 is not.

    We then combined our assessment of social plausibility with the latest set of socioeconomic future emissions scenarios and the latest physical science research on climate sensitivity – how much the climate will warm after a given amount of CO₂ emissions. This joint physical and social assessment evaluates warming lower than 1.7°C and warming higher than 4.9°C by the end of the century as currently not plausible.

    Deep decarbonisation could become more plausible, but this future would also require a good deal of tenacity. Rapid cuts in emissions may take a long time to show up in atmospheric CO₂ concentrations and warming trends – perhaps decades. Not only will we need to implement radical changes, we will also need to remain committed to seeing those changes through, beyond the time frame of one election cycle.
    DZODZO
    DZODZO --- ---
    tak uz je to jasne, polski diskuteri to rozlouskli, ziadne extremne prejavy zmeny klimy, ale bozi trest! :)

    "„To, co se Čechům stalo, je trest boží za důl Turów. Za ty miliony, co od nás denně chtějí... Museli jste donášet sousedům do Bruselu. Všemohoucí není rychlý, ale je spravedlivý. Stěžovali si před mezinárodním soudem, že polský důl jim sebral vodu, teď už by jim měla postačit,” uvedl jeden z diskutujících na stránce wp.pl, který o neštěstí na Moravě informoval."
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Tornáda jsou projev extrémního počasí. A to souvisí s klimatickou změnou – A2larm
    https://a2larm.cz/2021/06/tornada-jsou-projev-extremniho-pocasi-a-to-souvisi-s-klimatickou-zmenou/
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    O klimatické spravedlnosti
    https://youtube.com/watch?v=AOA3T7EnFM4


    Co pro nás vlastně znamená "klimatická spravedlnost"?

    Minulý týden jsme k tomu uspořádali online debatu, zajímalo by mě, jaké argumenty byste k ní ještě doplnili.

    Diskutovali:
    - Romana Březovská, analytička Výzkumného centra Asociace pro mezinárodní otázky se zaměřením na problematiku změny klimatu v širších souvislostech
    - Danuše Nerudová, ekonomka a rektorka Mendelovy univerzity v Brně
    - Alexandr Ač, ekolog z Ústav výzkumu globální změny AV ČR
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---


    žít klima
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    One Planet, How Many People? A Review of Earth's Carrying Capacity
    https://na.unep.net/geas/getUNEPPageWithArticleIDScript.php?article_id=88

    https://na.unep.net/geas/archive/pdfs/geas_jun_12_carrying_capacity.pdf

    t is estimated that global population reached seven billion in late 2011 or early 2012. As global population has doubled since the 1960s, per capita GDP has grown to more than ten times what it was then. The human impact has grown to such a scale that it has become a major geophysical force. It is not surprising that concerns about the number of people the Earth can support have re-emerged recently. Attempts to define an upper limit of the number of people that the Earth could support are inevitably subject to considerable uncertainty, however, the greatest concentration estimates falls between 8 and 16 billion people — a range we are fast approaching. While there are many ways we might reduce our per capita impact on the planet, the collective impact will always be multiplied by global population, making population an issue which cannot be ignored.
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    YMLADRIS: nove povolani: klima-thanatolog
    :))
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    YMLADRIS: ty FV tasky jsou zatim fakt hrozne drahy a i solarcity je zdrazilo asi na dvojnasobek, z hlediska estetiky jsou kompromis cerny éanely integrovany do strechy
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Uhlíkovou stopu bohatých navyšuje cestování, chudých vytápění. Spočítejte si tu svoji | iROZHLAS - spolehlivé zprávy
    https://www.irozhlas.cz/zpravy-domov/co2-uhlikova-stopa-letani-tridy-rozdeleni-klimatem-svobodou-kalkulacka-spocitat_2105100500_cib

    Naprostá většina Čechů bere změnu klimatu vážně, 63 % navrhuje začít s jejím řešením hned. Vyplývá to z reprezentativního průzkumu pro Český rozhlas.
    Obavy převládají ve všech společenských vrstvách. Výraznější rozdíly jsou zato v tom, v jaké míře a čím konkrétně členové různých tříd k emisím CO2 přispívají, a jak je můžou zasáhnout případná opatření.

    ...

    Ač se Česko řadí mezi menší státy, s 9,8 tunami CO2 na hlavu jsme v roce 2017 měli páté nejvyšší emise skleníkových plynů v Evropské unii a dvacáté na světě. Přibližně polovina z tohoto čísla leží mimo přímý vliv jednotlivců, tvoří ji emise z průmyslu, pracovišť a dalších oblastí, které výzkum nezkoumal. Zaměřil se hlavně na tu část, kterou lidé přímo ovlivňují svým spotřebním chováním a životním stylem.

    ...

    Mnohem výrazněji než svými postoji se jednotlivé společenské třídy liší samotnou uhlíkovou stopou. Dílčí rozdíly jsou v její velikosti, zásadní v její struktuře.

    Nevětší zátěž představuje životní styl dvou nejlépe zajištěných společenských tříd, tedy už zmíněných střední i kosmopolitní nastupující (zástupců elitní třídy má Česko tak málo, že je výzkum Rozděleni svobodu nezachytil, pozn. red.).

    ...

    „Jejich individuální uhlíková stopa ve zkoumaných oblastech se pohybuje kolem 5500 kg CO2 na osobu a rok. Ostatní třídy mají zatížení přibližně o 1000 kg nižší,“ říká sociolog Prokop. Oproti chudším třídám více emisí vyprodukují při cestování. Lidé z kosmopolitní třídy častěji létají, ti ze zajištěné střední zase více jezdí autem.



    YMLADRIS
    YMLADRIS --- ---
    YMLADRIS: trnka je naopak pro

    Na častější tornáda se musíme připravit, varuje klimatolog Trnka - Novinky.cz
    https://www.novinky.cz/domaci/clanek/na-castejsi-tornada-se-musime-pripravit-varuje-klimatolog-trnka-40364453

    ohledne tech vzrustajicich silnych bourek by me zajimalo, jak velke kroupy rozmlati fotovoltaiku, jak je to dimenzovany. rikali jsme si ze dame na barak muskovo solarcity az bude mit reseni pro evropu..
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Komentář: Kůrovce jsme promarnili, využijme tornádo - Seznam Zprávy
    https://www.seznamzpravy.cz/clanek/komentar-kurovce-jsme-promarnili-vyuzijme-tornado-168245
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    YMLADRIS
    YMLADRIS --- ---
    Global warming below 1.7°C is 'not plausible', reveals our study of the social drivers of decarbonisation
    https://theconversation.com/global-warming-below-1-7-c-is-not-plausible-reveals-our-study-of-the-social-drivers-of-decarbonisation-163104
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    TUHO: dalsi veci je, ze ta studie, kterou odkazujes a carbonbrief prevzalo, je na usa datech.

    Nic to nevypovida o tom, jak muze zmena klimatu prispet k tvorbe tornad ve zbytku sveta v blizky budoucnosti.

    Tani arktidy prozkoumany neni, svet se otepluje a evropa je letos vyjimecne chladna. Tezko rict, co bude pristi rok a kolik tornad to muze kde vytvorit.
    KEB
    KEB --- ---
    Ropákem roku 2020 se stal Karel Havlíček za DOL, Dukovany a Uhelnou komisi - Ekolist.cz
    https://ekolist.cz/cz/zpravodajstvi/zpravy/ropakem-roku-2020-se-stal-karel-havlicek-za-dol-dukovany-a-uhelnou-komisi

    Gratulujeme
    SEJDA
    SEJDA --- ---
    PER2: tady udelali i grafy

    ‚Satan v podobě víru.‘ Přehled tornád, která zasáhla v minulosti Česko | iROZHLAS - spolehlivé zprávy
    https://www.irozhlas.cz/zpravy-domov/tornado-bourky-cesko-historie_2106250947_piv
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    WATER AND HEALTHY LAND

    Guardians of the Karoo Rangelands - Karoo Space
    https://karoospace.co.za/guardians-of-the-karoo-rangelands/

    South African farmers were some of the first in the world to run livestock in regenerative manner, inspired by Allan Savorys and John Acocks early work.

    This article points out the significant improvements of the watercycle that healthy land can provide.

    To obtain water-security in the future, it will require us to understand and use the tool of livestock. Rivers and wetlands can appear where never seen before and aquifers will recharge as land is regenerated.
    Having the main focus on our water usage is like rearranging the deck chairs on a sinking Titanic.

    Excerpt #1:
    "Here, bare earth that was once crusted and impenetrable to seed and water is steadily being covered with vegetation, the soil soft, carbon-rich and moist. Climax grasses that haven’t been seen in decades are popping up, along with vleis and springs of good clear water.

    All this in the midst of the worst drought in living memory."

    Excerpt #2:
    "In an interview with Landbou Weekblad magazine in 2015, McCabe said one of the incredible benefits was the rising of the water table.

    “We used to drill down to 100 metres to get water. Now it is mostly only six metres below the surface. Acocks predicted that would happen. He also said the old dried-up wetlands would return, and they have. Vleis are incredible natural sponges that store water until it is needed.”"

    Excerpt #3:
    "On Klipdrift was a huge strip of land that was in particularly bad condition, riven by great dongas and huge bare patches.

    “My dad couldn’t drive on it at all,” says Sholto. “We could barely traverse the dongas on foot. But now the veld has flattened and it is ‘vlei-ing’,” he says. Vlei-ing?

    He explains: “We are managing to catch the seeds, retain the soil and water, and the dongas have filled up. The bare patches are steadily disappearing. We have watervleis (small wetlands) popping up everywhere.”

    In some places, at the base of a fence, he can point at an old fence post poking up, barely shin-high, nearly covered by new topsoil. The new fence is atop a full metre of newly settled soil."

    Excerpt #4:
    "He takes us to a valley that was once bare and exposed, the soil hard. Now a herd of cows grazes contentedly, surrounded by thick grass, near a small dam of water that is gin-clear. A watchful frog floats just above the vlei grass in the trough.

    “About ten years ago, if we had as little as 10 or 20mm of rain, it would run off and form washaways and floods. If you leave soil bare, more than 87% of the water runs off. You have to stop a raindrop where it falls. If it moves, it takes soil with it.”

    Now the land is thickly covered in a luxuriant cover of grass and dwarf shrubs."

    Excerpt #5:
    "Trenly set about using Holistic Management principles to regenerate the grazing on his farm for his Nguni cattle. When he started, the carrying capacity was one large livestock unit for every 28 hectares. Now thanks to the work he had done on the veld, it is around one for every 8 hectares."

    Excerpt #6:
    "“Thanks to all the work my dad did to restore the veld using Holistic Management (HM), we have been given this massive gift: a fountain popped up two years ago, in the middle of the drought, and has been flowing constantly ever since. We were able to install a weir and use the water to grow lucerne for ewes and lambs.”"

    Excerpt #7:
    "“We were on the brink of organising feed for our livestock. Then the rains fell and these top-class grasses sprang up: Digitaria, Panicum maximum, blue buffalo grass – plants that haven’t been seen here for decades.”"

    -Read the full story here:
    Guardians of the Karoo Rangelands - Karoo Space
    https://karoospace.co.za/guardians-of-the-karoo-rangelands/

    -Another good article about one of the farms featured:
    Restoring South Africa's desertified Karoo | Managing Wholes
    http://managingwholes.com/klipdrift.htm

    -About the Herding Academy:
    Shepherd's Delight - Karoo Space
    https://karoospace.co.za/shepherds-delight/
    YMLADRIS
    YMLADRIS --- ---
    TUHO: Taky jsem o tom tak uvažovala
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    YMLADRIS: No nicmene v lidove imaginaci casto nejde o to, "co je vedecka pravda", ale to jak to pusobi. Takze je klidne mozny, ze to nakonec znacne promeni debatu o zmenach klimatu treba tim, ze najednou treba lidi budou nahlizet jinak extremni meteorologicky jevy, ktery s klimatickou zmenou spojeny jsou - a ktery jsou nejnicivejsi v oblastech, ktery jsou daleko.

    Plus dalsi vec je, ze to jakou to bude mit souvislost do budoucnosti asi nevime. Jaky tornada budou ve svete oteplenym o 2-3-4 stupne? (ale pravda ze tou dobou asi budeme mit jiny problemy .))
    Kliknutím sem můžete změnit nastavení reklam