YMLADRIS:

Deep decarbonisation requires that we reduce anthropogenic emissions in the first place. In fact, we need a year-on-year reduction in emissions from now until 2050, roughly equivalent to the 7% reductions seen during the COVID-19 pandemic. Since zero-carbon technologies can take decades to scale up and optimise, and lock-in effects commit us to the technologies we choose now for years to come, we also need to act fast.

To study the social dynamics needed for such a rapid transformation, we looked at ten social drivers of decarbonisation: United Nations climate governance, transnational initiatives, climate-related regulation, climate protests and social movements, climate litigation, corporate responses, fossil fuel divestment, consumption patterns, journalism, and knowledge production. We studied the drivers’ current trajectories, but also the enabling or constraining conditions that influence their future development.

We found, for example, that consumption will keep growing due to a lack of regulation and strong cultural habits of consumption, “green” or otherwise. While the way in which we consume changed rapidly during the pandemic, shifting online, what and how much we consume is anchored in cultural habits and attitudes.

We found that divestment – selling investments in fossil-fuel infrastructure – is occurring to some extent, but with unexpected negative spillover effects, such as when nation states divest at home but reinvest in fossil fuels abroad. And we found that social movements have a positive effect in some countries, but it remains uncertain how their political vision will mature after the pandemic, or in key countries like China, where protests do not usually have an influence on national politics.

None of the drivers show enough momentum to bring about deep decarbonisation by 2050, and two drivers, consumption patterns and corporate responses, actively inhibit it. Our final assessment: even if a partial decarbonisation is currently plausible, deep decarbonisation by the year 2050 is not.

We then combined our assessment of social plausibility with the latest set of socioeconomic future emissions scenarios and the latest physical science research on climate sensitivity – how much the climate will warm after a given amount of CO₂ emissions. This joint physical and social assessment evaluates warming lower than 1.7°C and warming higher than 4.9°C by the end of the century as currently not plausible.

Deep decarbonisation could become more plausible, but this future would also require a good deal of tenacity. Rapid cuts in emissions may take a long time to show up in atmospheric CO₂ concentrations and warming trends – perhaps decades. Not only will we need to implement radical changes, we will also need to remain committed to seeing those changes through, beyond the time frame of one election cycle.

TUHO: dalsi veci je, ze ta studie, kterou odkazujes a carbonbrief prevzalo, je na usa datech.

Nic to nevypovida o tom, jak muze zmena klimatu prispet k tvorbe tornad ve zbytku sveta v blizky budoucnosti.

Tani arktidy prozkoumany neni, svet se otepluje a evropa je letos vyjimecne chladna. Tezko rict, co bude pristi rok a kolik tornad to muze kde vytvorit.

Ropákem roku 2020 se stal Karel Havlíček za DOL, Dukovany a Uhelnou komisi - Ekolist.cz
https://ekolist.cz/cz/zpravodajstvi/zpravy/ropakem-roku-2020-se-stal-karel-havlicek-za-dol-dukovany-a-uhelnou-komisi

Gratulujeme

PER2: tady udelali i grafy

‚Satan v podobě víru.‘ Přehled tornád, která zasáhla v minulosti Česko | iROZHLAS - spolehlivé zprávy
https://www.irozhlas.cz/zpravy-domov/tornado-bourky-cesko-historie_2106250947_piv

WATER AND HEALTHY LAND

Guardians of the Karoo Rangelands - Karoo Space
https://karoospace.co.za/guardians-of-the-karoo-rangelands/

South African farmers were some of the first in the world to run livestock in regenerative manner, inspired by Allan Savorys and John Acocks early work.

This article points out the significant improvements of the watercycle that healthy land can provide.

To obtain water-security in the future, it will require us to understand and use the tool of livestock. Rivers and wetlands can appear where never seen before and aquifers will recharge as land is regenerated.
Having the main focus on our water usage is like rearranging the deck chairs on a sinking Titanic.

Excerpt #1:
"Here, bare earth that was once crusted and impenetrable to seed and water is steadily being covered with vegetation, the soil soft, carbon-rich and moist. Climax grasses that haven’t been seen in decades are popping up, along with vleis and springs of good clear water.

All this in the midst of the worst drought in living memory."

Excerpt #2:
"In an interview with Landbou Weekblad magazine in 2015, McCabe said one of the incredible benefits was the rising of the water table.

“We used to drill down to 100 metres to get water. Now it is mostly only six metres below the surface. Acocks predicted that would happen. He also said the old dried-up wetlands would return, and they have. Vleis are incredible natural sponges that store water until it is needed.”"

Excerpt #3:
"On Klipdrift was a huge strip of land that was in particularly bad condition, riven by great dongas and huge bare patches.

“My dad couldn’t drive on it at all,” says Sholto. “We could barely traverse the dongas on foot. But now the veld has flattened and it is ‘vlei-ing’,” he says. Vlei-ing?

He explains: “We are managing to catch the seeds, retain the soil and water, and the dongas have filled up. The bare patches are steadily disappearing. We have watervleis (small wetlands) popping up everywhere.”

In some places, at the base of a fence, he can point at an old fence post poking up, barely shin-high, nearly covered by new topsoil. The new fence is atop a full metre of newly settled soil."

Excerpt #4:
"He takes us to a valley that was once bare and exposed, the soil hard. Now a herd of cows grazes contentedly, surrounded by thick grass, near a small dam of water that is gin-clear. A watchful frog floats just above the vlei grass in the trough.

“About ten years ago, if we had as little as 10 or 20mm of rain, it would run off and form washaways and floods. If you leave soil bare, more than 87% of the water runs off. You have to stop a raindrop where it falls. If it moves, it takes soil with it.”

Now the land is thickly covered in a luxuriant cover of grass and dwarf shrubs."

Excerpt #5:
"Trenly set about using Holistic Management principles to regenerate the grazing on his farm for his Nguni cattle. When he started, the carrying capacity was one large livestock unit for every 28 hectares. Now thanks to the work he had done on the veld, it is around one for every 8 hectares."

Excerpt #6:
"“Thanks to all the work my dad did to restore the veld using Holistic Management (HM), we have been given this massive gift: a fountain popped up two years ago, in the middle of the drought, and has been flowing constantly ever since. We were able to install a weir and use the water to grow lucerne for ewes and lambs.”"

Excerpt #7:
"“We were on the brink of organising feed for our livestock. Then the rains fell and these top-class grasses sprang up: Digitaria, Panicum maximum, blue buffalo grass – plants that haven’t been seen here for decades.”"

-Read the full story here:
Guardians of the Karoo Rangelands - Karoo Space
https://karoospace.co.za/guardians-of-the-karoo-rangelands/

-Another good article about one of the farms featured:
Restoring South Africa's desertified Karoo | Managing Wholes
http://managingwholes.com/klipdrift.htm

-About the Herding Academy:
Shepherd's Delight - Karoo Space
https://karoospace.co.za/shepherds-delight/

YMLADRIS: No nicmene v lidove imaginaci casto nejde o to, "co je vedecka pravda", ale to jak to pusobi. Takze je klidne mozny, ze to nakonec znacne promeni debatu o zmenach klimatu treba tim, ze najednou treba lidi budou nahlizet jinak extremni meteorologicky jevy, ktery s klimatickou zmenou spojeny jsou - a ktery jsou nejnicivejsi v oblastech, ktery jsou daleko.

Plus dalsi vec je, ze to jakou to bude mit souvislost do budoucnosti asi nevime. Jaky tornada budou ve svete oteplenym o 2-3-4 stupne? (ale pravda ze tou dobou asi budeme mit jiny problemy .))

TUHO: koubsky je taky proti

Slovácko není Kansas. Tornádo udeřilo zle, ale je to ojedinělá událost – Deník N
https://denikn.cz/652841/slovacko-neni-kansas-tornado-uderilo-zle-ale-je-to-ojedinela-udalost/

Budeme si na taková opatření muset zvyknout i my? Nevídanou událost, k níž na Moravě došlo, samozřejmě někteří už spojují s globální změnou klimatu. Je to ale předčasný závěr. Podle amerických klimatologů není mezi četností tornád a globálním oteplováním žádná prokazatelná souvislost. Potvrzují to časové řady výskytu tornád v USA i v Evropě. Nevykazují žádný jasný dlouhodobý trend, dominují jim velké meziroční výkyvy.

Oteplování planety má dva důsledky zajímavé z hlediska vzniku tornád: s teplotou přibývá vlhkosti v atmosféře, což snižuje stabilitu počasí a přispívá ke vzniku bouří. Zároveň však při vyšší teplotě ubývá prudkých změn rychlosti a směru větru. První z těchto změn může vznik tornád podporovat, druhá ho však tlumí a navzájem se pravděpodobně vyruší.

Něco však statistici přece jen vypozorovali. Tornáda se častěji než dřív shlukují – přestože celkový roční počet tornád zůstává stejný, přibývá dnů, kdy se jich vyskytne větší počet (a tím pádem přibývá také dnů bez tornád).

Různé atmosférické jevy se dají připsat na vrub globální změny klimatu s různou pravděpodobností. Na jednom konci této škály jsou extrémní vedra a extrémní chladno – souvislost s oteplováním planety je v obou těchto případech velmi pravděpodobná. Prudké bouře a tornáda se nacházejí na opačném konci škály. Oteplování na ně – podle toho, co je zatím známo – nejspíš nemá žádný vliv.

TADEAS: Ale ta linka mezi klimatickou zmenou a tornadama (cetnosti, intenzitou) je dle myho stale velmi nejista (narozdil treba od intenzity srazek a sucha)

Scientists have relatively low confidence in detecting a link between tornado activity and climate change. They cannot exclude the possibility of a link; rather, the science is so uncertain that they simply do not know at this point.
What is clear is that there is no observable increase in the number of strong tornadoes in the US over the past few decades. At the same time, tornadoes have become more clustered, with outbreaks of multiple tornadoes becoming more common even as the overall number has remained unchanged. There is also evidence that tornado “power” has been increasing in recent years.
Some research has suggested that climate change will create conditions more favourable to the formation of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes, but such effects are not detectable in observations today.
Any role for climate change in affecting the conditions for tornado formation is still very much an open question and the subject of ongoing research by the scientific community.

Tornadoes and climate change: what does the science say?
https://www.carbonbrief.org/tornadoes-and-climate-change-what-does-the-science-say-2

TADEAS: klima se mění, ale nemůže za to člověk. Myslím, že s tímhle si teď tak deset let vystačí