• úvod
  • témata
  • události
  • tržiště
  • diskuze
  • nástěnka
  • přihlásit
    registrace
    ztracené heslo?
    TUHOKlimaticka zmena / Thank you so much for ruining my day
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    LACIF: Aha, mmnt ty tam mas warming magnitude 2stupne Celsia? No tak to je potom o dost vic nez bych cekal. Na to tedka koukam, ale uplne jsem nenastudoval tu souvislost mezi SSP (shared socioeconomic pathway) a RCP (representation concetration pathway) a globalni teplotou..
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    LACIF: No, tak si nastavil SSP5 8.5 to je ten mainstreamovej "worst case scenario" (jakoze opomiji fat tail risks, ktery pocitaj s tim, ze kolapsem carbon sinku muzem mit z biosfery jeste vyrazne vyssi emise). jinak celkem vtipny, ze worst case scenario je tak trochu linearni extrapolace soucasnyho trendu spalovani fosilnich paliv.
    V podstate by teda u nas sla prumerna teplota z 9 stupnu na 15? To mi celkem sedi ne, u nas se otepluje cca dvakrat rychlejs nez je prumer (jsme uz na ceste k polum plus je tu kontinent). Taky zatim bylo otepleni global cca o stupen a u nas uz je to o dva.
    LACIF
    LACIF --- ---
    IPCC WGI Interactive Atlas
    https://interactive-atlas.ipcc.ch/
    nejsem si jistej, ze jsem vstupy nastavil spravne, ale plus 6 stupnu v 2100 ve stredni evrope pri strizlivym modelu je docela HC, ne?

    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    LA_PIOVRA: ve smyslu rodicovstvi TADEAS, TADEAS, TADEAS:
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    LA_PIOVRA: Jedes prepping? Jem Bendel rozjel forum Deep Adaptation, jsem se tam kdysi registroval, ale nejak moc to nezkoumal. Jinak nevim no, podle me v nasich zemepisnych sirkach bude nejvetsi problem spocivat s politickou destabilizaci - a na tu se jak da adaptovat? Asi akorat vytvarenim socialnich siti, kumulaci snadno presunutelneho majetku, pripadne vytvareni zazemi v nejake dalsi zemi, kde se daji ocekavat stabilnejsi pomery (kdyz se veci zeserou, tak uz na tech mistech bude pretlak, takze asi dobre kupovat pozemek / dum / delat si zname atp na miste predem). A pokud se veci nezeserou prilis, tak adaptace bude asi celkem easy - proste klimatizace, solarni panely, tepelny cerpadla, tunky a bazeny :D

    Jinak timhle smerem asi nejvic uvazuje Tadeas, tak treba se sveri .)
    Jo a pripomenl si mi tuhle knihu, ktera sice neni vylozene o klima zmene, ale tematicky se to protina...

    Knížka Magdaleny Vožické přináší sumář praktických rad a odzkoušených doporučení, na co bychom na cestě k soběstačnosti neměli zapomenout. Rázně, ale s nadsázkou. Recepty na konzervaci potravin, a schopnost jejich vypěstování, domácí apatyku nebo výrobu základních předmětů zvyšujících pravděpodobnost přežití proložila autorka příběhovou vrstvou. Fiktivní, a přitom tak reálnou. Ze života.
    Nečekejte dystopický text ždímající téma apokalypsy. Jak přežít konec civilizace chytlavě předkládá zkušenosti předchozích generací v situacích, které jsme si ještě nedávno nechtěli nebo neuměli představit. I kdyby nenastaly, získáte s knihou cenná a ozkoušená doporučení, jak se stát na vratké a stále méně vyzpytatelné společnosti nezávislejší, soběstačnější, odolnější a také veselejší.


    :: www.biobooks.cz
    https://www.biobooks.cz/?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=posty&utm_campaign=biobooks
    YMLADRIS
    YMLADRIS --- ---
    LA_PIOVRA: Přišlo mi fajn přečíst si Rruka noci podaná od Cílka a spoluautor je Ferdinand šmikmátor který teď samostatně vydal knížku Ppotom, což už je vyloženě taková pre perská příručka, tak můžeš prostudovat jestli tě zaujme
    LA_PIOVRA
    LA_PIOVRA --- ---
    Nemate prosim doporuceni na nejaky texty, zdroje, proverena fora, knihy, dokumenty etc. tykajici se individualni/rodinne adaptace na na veci souvisejici se zmenami klimatu?
    SHEALA
    SHEALA --- ---
    Ahoj, když by někdo narazil na to, co může udělat městský nebo místní magistrát proti změně klimatu, zajímá mě to :)
    KEB
    KEB --- ---
    JIRIX: nezapomeň v říjnu volit ODS, pan Vondra zmocněnec pro klima nebo jak si to říká je přesně ten člověk co nasměruje naší zemi správným směrem.

    Protože Vondra je pro mě symbolem tě pravé ODS klausovske éry
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    A pokracovani. Carbon Brief o novem reportu

    Another key talking point to emerge from AR6 has been the question of when the world is expected to reach 1.5C and 2C of global warming.
    This article looks at what exactly the new report says on this topic and how it compares to previous estimates by Carbon Brief and from the IPCC’s 1.5C report.

    Analysis: What the new IPCC report says about when world may pass 1.5C and 2C | Carbon Brief
    https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-what-the-new-ipcc-report-says-about-when-world-may-pass-1-5c-and-2c
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    Dalsi clanek Carbon brief o AR6. Tentokrat o souvislostech otepleni s extremnim pocasim...

    This piece examines what the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) sixth assessment report (AR6) says about the link between climate change and extreme weather.
    AR6 says it is “established fact” that human-caused greenhouse gas emissions have “led to an increased frequency and/or intensity of some weather and climate extremes since pre-industrial times” and this explainer looks at what this means for different weather events, including flooding, drought and tropical cyclones.

    Explainer: What the new IPCC report says about extreme weather and climate change | Carbon Brief
    https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-what-the-new-ipcc-report-says-about-extreme-weather-and-climate-change
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    Recko...





    Greece fires: Foreign teams join battle on Evia island - BBC News
    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-58160938
    VOYTEX
    VOYTEX --- ---
    TADEAS:" kteremu bodu zlomu?" Vzdyt to pisu, vymirani druhu nasledkem lidske cinnosti, mj rozpadem klimatu. To neni zadna spekulace.
    BROZKEFF
    BROZKEFF --- ---
    TLDR: "Golfský proud (nejen) - the end is near"

    Almost all the non-linearly detrended sea surface temperature (SST)-
    and salinity-based Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC
    indices show highly significant increases in the three considered EWS
    indicators, providing evidence that the AMOC is approaching a
    bifurcation-induced transition. Statistical sig-
    nificance of positive trends is determined from a test based on
    phase surrogates that preserve both variance and autocorrelation
    , and the results are not sensitive to changing the size of
    the sliding windows. The possibility
    of false alarms due to rising variance or AC1 of the high-frequency
    forcing can be ruled out since the corrected restoring rate λ has been
    considered here.
    ...
    As expected for a system approaching
    a bifurcation-induced transition, the time evolution of the restoring
    rate λ is strongly correlated with the inverse of the estimated model
    sensitivity dx*/dt, which provides strong evidence that the AMOC is
    indeed approaching a critical, bifurcation-induced transition.
    ...
    these findings still raise
    concern regarding whether state-of-the-art climate models would
    be skilful in predicting a forthcoming AMOC collapse. This is in
    agreement with previous results showing that the present AMOC
    mode is too stable in state-of-the-art models9, most likely due to an
    underestimation of the freshwater export from the northern Atlantic
    Ocean, caused by errors in the salinity fields and insufficient model
    resolution12. The high-resolution, eddy-permitting HadGEM3-GC2
    model, which was used to establish the suitability of the SST-based
    AMOC indices employed here51, constitutes a major step forward
    concerning a more accurate representation of the AMOC and its
    stability
    ...
    The results presented here hence show that the recently discov-
    ered AMOC decline during the last decades is not just a fluctuation
    related to low-frequency climate variability or a linear response to
    increasing temperatures. Rather, the presented findings suggest that
    this decline may be associated with an almost complete loss of sta-
    bility of the AMOC over the course of the last century, and that the
    AMOC could be close to a critical transition to its weak circulation
    mode.

    Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation | Nature Climate Change
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01097-4

    fulltext https://akasha.brozkeff.net/owncloud/index.php/s/ZSSxSEIOto5NZgV
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    Severe Weather Europe
    Tunis records +49.0 yesterday, a new all-time high for the Tunisia capital!
    Lentini, Sicily ends up at an outstanding +47.0 as well. Ties the Italian all-time heat record.
    Extreme heatwave continues, stay alert!
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    TUHO: The “crucial decade” was 2010-20, as we were told at the time, not the 2020’s. The 2020’s will be the decade of consequences. Like the people who understood the real nature of the Nazi project in the 1930’s and took in the Jews during World War Two, those that overcome these states of denial, and act in response to the real nature of the world today, are not predominately part of either the Left or Right, or of a particular religious or cultural group. What they have in common is what Tim Snyder, author of “Black Earth, Holocaust as History and Warning” calls “self knowledge”: the personality structure that is able to overcome the pressure to conform to the herd, and the ethical inability to stand by as society descends into evil.

    In the next two to three years the prevention of humanity’s greatest hell of rape, slaughter, and starvation will depend on whether this small group of people around the world go into active and unlimited nonviolent resistance against the carbon regimes. These people already know who they are.
    PER2
    PER2 --- ---
    XCHAOS: lepsi bude si dat na strechu zrdcadlo, za pet let vam reknu: "ja vam to rikal" (plesk)
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    VOYTEX: kteremu bodu zlomu? je jich mnoho a pouze se spekuluje, kde jsou, neb system planety natolik nezname.
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    Smoke from raging forest fires in Siberia has reached the north pole for the first time in recorded history, as a Russian monitoring institute warned the blazes were worsening.
    Devastating wildfires have ripped across Siberia with increasing regularity over the past few years, which Russia’s weather officials and environmentalists have linked to climate change and an underfunded forest service.

    Smoke from Siberia wildfires reaches north pole in historic first | Russia | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/09/smoke-siberia-wildfires-reaches-north-pole-historic-first
    Kliknutím sem můžete změnit nastavení reklam