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    TUHOKlimaticka zmena / Thank you so much for ruining my day
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    A Societal Transformation Scenario for Staying Below 1.5°C | Heinrich Böll Stiftung
    https://www.boell.de/en/2020/12/09/societal-transformation-scenario-staying-below-15degc
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    Ben Franta
    https://twitter.com/BenFranta/status/1437448973137039365?s=19

    Proud to be one of over 2000 scientists and researchers calling for a fossil fuel nonproliferation treaty.

    Fossil fuels threaten the entire planet. They must be controlled, phased out, and replaced as quickly as possible. It's imperative we use all tools at our disposal.
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    The autonomous Earth: How humans created a planetary civilisation that is beyond their control | Artificial Life Conference Proceedings | MIT Press
    https://direct.mit.edu/isal/proceedings/isal/33/6/102960

    Coined by US geoscientist Peter Haff in 2014, the technosphere consists of individual humans, human societies, information networks, and stuff. In terms of stuff, humans have produced an extraordinary 30 trillion metric tons of things. From skyscrapers to CDs, fountains to fondue sets. A good deal of this is infrastructure, such as roads and railways, which links humanity together. The technosphere can be seen as the latest major evolutionary transition of not just life on Earth, but the Earth system itself. Adopting this planetary-scale perspective provides new insights into our current sustainability challenges. For example, rather than technological innovation being for the direct benefit of humans, it can instead be seen as an element in an autocatalytic system that increases the technosphere's energy and material consumption. Homo sapiens in that respect become elements, rather directors, of the technosphere. While multiple generations collectively built the technosphere it may prove to be largely autonomous and insensitive to human agency in terms of large-scale processes and developmental trajectory. If that is an accurate description, then we may be unable to avert climate change that would devastate communities around the world.

    Rather than being a cause of despair, embracing the technosphere concept could offer a vital opportunity for humanity to gain important agency and help forge a viable route to a more sustainable future. In order for that to happen, new and quite radical reassessments are required when it comes to human's relationships to technology and the technosphere. To understand you are in a prison, you must first be able to see the bars.

    KEYNOTE James Dyke
    https://youtu.be/UiyXI6pVzk8
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    Climate change: World now sees twice as many days over 50C - BBC News
    https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-58494641.amp
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    Nuclear energy isn't a safe bet in a warming world – here's why
    https://theconversation.com/amp/nuclear-energy-isnt-a-safe-bet-in-a-warming-world-heres-why-163371

    power stations active today entered service long before the science of climate change was well-established. Two in five nuclear plants operate on the coast and at least 100 have been built just a few metres above sea level. Nuclear energy is, quite literally, on the frontline of climate change – and not in a good way.

    ...

    The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission concludes the vast majority of its nuclear sites were never designed to withstand the future climate impacts they face, and many have already experienced some flooding. A recent US Army War College report also states that nuclear power facilities are at high risk of temporary or permanent closure due to climate threats – with 60% of US nuclear capacity at risk from future sea-level rise, severe storms, and cooling water shortages.
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    Paul Maidowski
    https://twitter.com/_ppmv/status/1438266017575325698?s=19

    Repetition helps, so let's repeat: it helps to address the causes of a problem (growth), rather than its symptoms (GHG emissions). (Thanks @ all degrowth people—you know all this!—; beyond growth, next we can focus on rates of degrowth :)

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    Chevron would rather pay dividends than invest in wind and solar -CEO | Reuters
    https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/chevron-ceo-says-dividend-shareholders-better-than-investing-wind-solar-2021-09-15/

    “Chevron Corp Chief Executive Mike Wirth said on Wednesday the company prefers to return money to its shareholders rather than use it to invest in solar and wind...

    ‘We rather dividend it back to shareholders and let them plant trees.’"

    @Reuters https://t.co/kPTvKbkIQa
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    Opinion | I’ve Said Goodbye to ‘Normal.’ You Should, Too. - The New York Times
    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/25/opinion/new-normal-climate-catastrophes.html

    "The next 20 years will be a period of deep uncertainty and tremendous risk, no matter what. We don’t get to choose what challenges we’ll face, but we do get to decide how we face them."
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    President Biden is hosting the Major Economies Forum to discuss the countries’ progress on addressing climate change ahead of the upcoming COP26 summit. “We have to bring to Glasgow our highest possible ambitions. Those who have not yet done so, time is running out,” @POTUS says. https://t.co/dBf2rqpvV4


    Kate Aronoff
    https://twitter.com/KateAronoff/status/1438939119183347719?s=19

    The United States government does not have a climate law, is not especially close to getting one and set the world back years in taking on the problem by abandoning the Kyoto Protocol—all on top of being a top fossil fuel exporter.

    A little humility would be nice!
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    better than ever

    Taming The Greedocracy ❧ Current Affairs
    https://www.currentaffairs.org/2021/08/taming-the-greedocracy

    Ezra Klein—the New York Times podcast host, opinion columnist, uberwonk, and stats-shaman. In a conversation with Brian Deese—the director of the National Economic Council and fresh-from-Wall-Street top economic advisor to Joe Biden—Klein said that when it comes to climate change, “you can’t… ask [people] for sacrifice. You can’t say, ‘We’re going to do this by making energy more expensive, and certain things are not going to be available anymore.’ You want to do this in a way that feels positive-sum to people—better technologies… You’re getting something out of it … not ‘you get less in order for the future to get more.’” Deese strongly concurred, saying: “I want to double down on that.”

    This may not immediately seem so bad. What’s wrong with “positive-sum,” “better technologies,” and cheap energy? Klein is a militantly (even desperately) optimistic sort of person; in 2019, during a podcast episode with clean-energy guru Saul Griffiths titled “How to solve climate change and make life more awesome,” Klein said that “conversations about climate change are pretty depressing [but] decarbonizing doesn’t mean accepting a future of less—it can mean a more awesome, humane, technologically rich, and socially inspiring future for us all.” Griffiths endorsed this abundance-oriented path. “Our cars could be just as big, only electric,” he said. “…The American Dream could be better than… ever.”
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    degrowth v NYT

    Opinion | Do We Need to Shrink the Economy to Stop Climate Change? - The New York Times
    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/16/opinion/degrowth-cllimate-change.html
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    +2
    trenink odvahy k bezradnosti


    Today's new UN report on emissions if countries follow their current pledges under the Paris agreement shows 3 things: 1) we are not even close to being on track; 2) we need a steep decline of emissions in this decisive decade, even for 2°C; 3) naming and shaming is not working. https://twitter.com/W_Lucht/status/1438941822869442562?s=19

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    sure

    US and EU pledge 30% cut in methane emissions to limit global heating | Greenhouse gas emissions | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/sep/17/us-and-eu-pledge-30-cut-in-methane-emissions-to-limit-global-heating

    The pact between the US and the EU sets a target of cutting at least 30% from global methane emissions, based on 2020 levels, by 2030. If adopted around the world, this would reduce global heating by 0.2C by the 2040s, compared with likely temperature rises by then.
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    Messaggio congiunto del Santo Padre Francesco, di Sua Santità Bartolomeo I, Patriarca Ecumenico di Costantinopoli, e di Sua Grazia Justin Welby, Arcivescovo di Canterbury, per la protezione del Creato
    https://press.vatican.va/content/salastampa/it/bollettino/pubblico/2021/09/07/0543/01167.html

    "The current climate crisis speaks volumes about who we are and how we view and treat God’s creation. We stand before a harsh justice: biodiversity loss, environmental degradation and climate change are the inevitable consequences of our actions, since we have greedily consumed more of the earth’s resources than the planet can endure. But we also face a profound injustice: the people bearing the most catastrophic consequences of these abuses are the poorest on the planet and have been the least responsible for causing them. We serve a God of justice, who delights in creation and creates every person in God’s image, but also hears the cry of people who are poor. Accordingly, there is an innate call within us to respond with anguish when we see such devastating injustice."
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    1 odpověď+1
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    Debata o klimatu bez ANO a popíračů: až příliš velká shoda
    https://denikreferendum.cz/clanek/33111-debata-o-klimatu-bez-ano-a-popiracu-az-prilis-velka-shoda

    Ti, kteří měli přijít, nepřišli. Pondělní debaty o klimatu, pořádané hnutím Fridays for Future a environmentálními organizacemi Greenpeace, Hnutí DUHA a Zelený kruh, se zúčastnili představitelé pouze čtyř politických stran, respektive koalic.

    Na jevišti Divadla Archa hovořili ministr kultury Lubomír Zaorálek (ČSSD), pirátský lídr Ivan Bartoš, za koalici SPOLU Markéta Pekarová Adamová (lídryně TOP09) a spolupředsedkyně Zelených Magdalena Davis. Na obecném rámci budoucího směřování české klimatické politiky se povětšinou shodli.

    Debatu však poznamenala nepřítomnost kohokoli z hnutí ANO, které je a po říjnových volbách dost možná nadále bude nejsilnější sněmovní stranou.

    Premiér Andrej Babiš místo sebe původně vyslal místopředsedu vlády a ministra dvou rezortů Karla Havlíčka (nestr. za ANO). Ten ovšem hodinu před začátkem debaty svou účast zrušil. Zřejmě z náhlého popudu — jeho ochranka se totiž dostavila.

    ...

    Už během prvních minut se projevila neochota některých diskutujících deklarovat jasné cíle. Zaorálek i Bartoš se — každý po svém — zdráhali vyslovit datum konce těžby uhlí. U Bartoše mohlo jít o technokratický odpor vůči teoretizování o budoucnosti ve chvíli, kdy nedisponuje jasnými daty a důkazy. Dozajista totiž měl on i Zaorálek pravdu v tom, že vzhledem k rostoucím cenám emisních povolenek může uhlí skončit dřív, než politici určí. Tím spíš je ale zapotřebí jasně stanovit časový horizont tak, aby potřebná energetická transformace proběhla zavčasu.

    Na onom pověstném Západě, kterým se diskutující často zaklínali, už státy plánovaný konec uhlí dávno ohlásily. Nizozemsko chce s nejšpinavějším fosilním palivem skoncovat před rokem 2030, cíl Spojeného království je 2025, Belgie uhlí vyřadila už v roce 2016. Každá evropská země možná má odlišný energetický mix, ale uhelná éra je bezpochyby u konce. Politika České republiky, slovy vládního programu „The Country for the Future“, tomu zatím zdaleka neodpovídá.

    ...

    Jeden silný moment ovšem Zaorálek měl: jako jediný se aktivně chopil tématu klimatické spravedlnosti. Už ve svém úvodním slovu vyjádřil obavu, aby energetický přechod nezaplatili především nízkopříjmoví obyvatelé.

    Rodák z Moravskoslezského kraje také zmínil, že „mluvil s odboráři na Ostravsku a ti mi řekli, že je jim to úplně jedno [kdy skončí uhlí], ale podstatné je, aby stát byl schopen připravit sociální programy a výsluhy pro horníky.“

    Stav veřejné debaty na téma spravedlivé transformace nejlépe ilustrovala reakce na otázku moderátora Doubravského: „setkal se někdo z vás v uplynulém roce se zástupci energetických či hornických odborů?“ Zatímco Zaorálek ihned zdvihl svou kartičku, ostatní se zmateně rozhlíželi kolem.

    ...

    skloubení nízkoemisní ekonomiky s důstojnou prací bude jednou ze stěžejních politických výzev pro nadcházející roky a dekády. Tématu transformace uhelných regionů se přitom diskutující vyhýbali, pokud zrovna nezmiňovali ekonomickou příležitost představovanou takzvaným „Just Transition“ fondem Evropské unie. Jeho čerpání je podmíněno vyřešením střetu zájmů Andreje Babiše, což připomínali především Bartoš a Pekarová Adamová.

    ...

    Budoucnost české energetiky bez uhlí ostatně všichni diskutující vidí v inovacích, technologickém pokroku a fosilním plynu.

    Shoda — až na jedinou výjimku — panovala také na jádru. Proti nereálnému projektu výstavby nového bloku Dukovan vystoupila pouze Magdalena Davis a potvrdila tak, že Zelení jsou dlouhodobě jedinou politickou stranou, která má odvahu jádro odmítnout.
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    High electricity prices? It's time to accelerate the energy transition - Consumer Corner
    https://www.beuc.eu/blog/high-electricity-prices-its-time-to-accelerate-the-energy-transition/

    Consumers throughout Europe are facing significant increases in their electricity prices over the past months, in some cases reaching historical maximum levels.

    As consumers will need to switch to electric heating appliances and vehicles to support the decarbonisation of the energy system, the recent trend has raised concerns that the switch to a full electric system could turn out to be very expensive for people.

    But we should be careful not to draw the wrong conclusions. The recent increase in energy prices is not because of the energy transition, it’s because the energy transition is not going fast enough. Allow me to explain why.

    Some are blaming the shift to renewables for sending electricity prices through the roof. It’s actually the opposite: it’s the fact that we do not have enough renewables which is making our electricity bills more expensive.

    A recent report on Renewable Power Generation Costs by the International Renewable Energy Agency shows that today solar and wind power production is cheaper than fossil fuels like coal. What’s more, while fossil-fuel electricity has got more expensive in recent months, the cost of wind and solar has remained stable. From this, we can conclude that if we would have an electricity system mostly based on renewables, we would be less subject to this price volatility.

    Others blame the recent increase in the price of Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) allowances, which rose from €33 p/tonne of CO2 emitted in January to over €60 today, which has made it more expensive to generate electricity from fossil fuels. However, although ETS had an impact on electricity prices, it was not the main cause.

    Instead, we should look at the strong economic growth which has followed the pandemic-induced slump, with demand for natural gas spiking, especially in Asia. In its latest Electricity Market Report, the International Energy Agency shows that gas prices in the first half of 2021 increased by 171% (average for Germany, France, UK and Spain) compared with the same period in the previous year, which is mainly due to an increased demand due to the economic recovery and a cold winter.

    Why are consumers still paying so much for electricity then if the share of cheap renewables is rising? It’s because the most expensive power plants (gas and coal) used to cover peaks in demand determine the price of electricity on the wholesale market (the so-called ‘marginal price principle’). These rules mean that unfortunately, the benefits of cheaper solar and wind production are not being fully passed on to consumers. If renewable electricity can cover demand for more hours of the day, the cheaper electricity will be for consumers.
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    agitka za jadro

    Komentář klimatologa: Srpnová aktualizace teplot a blížící se doba planých řečí
    https://www.czechsight.cz/komentar-klimatologa-srpnova-aktualizace-teplot-a-blizici-se-doba-planych-reci/

    Nejprve dobrá zpráva: Podle nejnovější předpovědi NOAA pro tropy bude La Niňa silnější (obr. 1 vpravo), což by mělo udržet globální teplotu poblíž trendu z let 1970-2015 (obr. 2) přinejmenším po dobu několik měsíců. Moc dobrá zpráva to ale není – trendová čára není cíl, ke kterému bychom měli směřovat a pokračující La Niňa udržuje tropy zralé pro tvorbu tropických bouří. Příští El Niňo pak pravděpodobně zvedne globální teplotu vysoko nad linii trendu a může se přiblížit až k +1,5 °C nad průměr 1880-1920.

    ...

    Množství metanu (CH4) v ovzduší (obr. 3) se opět zvyšuje, a to díky našim politikům. Na konferenci COP6 v Bonnu 2001 využilo Německo svého postavení hostitelské země a odmítlo jadernou energii jako mechanismus čistého rozvoje, čímž se stalo závislým na plynu, což vedlo k rychlejšímu nárůstu CH4 a CO2 v atmosféře. Stabilizace klimatu vyžaduje dostatek bezuhlíkové elektřiny. Avšak používání plynu k vyrovnávání nestálé produkce z obnovitelných zdrojů je téměř stejně špatné jako uhlí, protože vede k nárůstu CH4 i CO2.

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    Desátá výzva pro příští českou vládu: jak se kandidující hnutí a strany staví ke klimatické změně? | iROZHLAS - spolehlivé zprávy
    https://www.irozhlas.cz/zpravy-domov/10-vyzev-pro-pristi-ceskou-vladu-ekologie-sucho-klimaticka-zmena_2109170615_tzr

    Jak v Česku v příštích letech čelit klimatické změně? Tuto otázku položil Radiožurnál lídrům politických stran a uskupení v posledním dílu projektu 10 výzev pro příští českou vládu. Hnutí ANO žádné radikální změny neplánuje a chce pokračovat například v přípravách na ukončení provozu uhelných elektráren nejpozději v roce 2038. Koalice Pirátů a STAN tohoto cíle chce docílit dříve, ideálně už v roce 2033.
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    +2
    shifting baselines (quickly)


    Scott Duncan
    https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1438171895233404939.html

    Summer 2021 was exceptionally hot when compared to a summer average from 1951-1980.

    But it felt cold in large parts of Europe? This map must be wrong?

    It turns out, 'how we feel' can be explained - without data, we are just opinions.

    ...

    what about Summer 2021 vs the 21st century average so far?

    The reds in western Europe erode and essentially we learn that the summer in 2021 was nothing special compared to this average (but is still considerably warmer than 1951-1980 average for example).

    Summer 2021 is a good bit colder than the average of the last 3 summers for western Europe. We have had a lot of hot weather in recent years! Our perception of what is actually warm and cool has changed.

    Essentially, a few hot summers recently makes this summer look quite cool. Basically, our 'cool' summer is still a lot warmer than what was considered normal 50-100 years ago for example.

    Kliknutím sem můžete změnit nastavení reklam