• úvod
  • témata
  • události
  • tržiště
  • diskuze
  • nástěnka
  • přihlásit
    registrace
    ztracené heslo?
    TUHOKlimaticka zmena / If the fracturing of our once stable climate doesn’t terrify you, then you don’t fully understand it


    "Given the sheer enormity of climate change, it’s okay to be depressed, to grieve. But please, don’t stay there too long. Join me in pure, unadulterated, righteous anger."


    "I don’t want your hope. I don’t want you to be hopeful. I want you to panic. I want you to feel the fear I feel every day. And then I want you to act. Once you start to act, the hope is everywhere."

    "Our best scientists tell us insistently that a calamity is unfolding, that the life-support systems of the Earth are being damaged in ways that threaten our survival. Yet in the face of these facts we carry on as usual."

    “We’ve got to stop burning fossil fuels. So many aspects of life depend on fossil fuels, except for music and love and education and happiness. These things, which hardly use fossil fuels, are what we must focus on.”

    A nejde o to, že na to nemáme dostatečné technologie, ty by na řešení použít šly, ale chybí nám vůle a představivost je využít. Zůstáváme při zemi, přemýšlíme až moc rezervovaně. Technologický pokrok to sám o sobě nevyřeší. Problém jsme my, ne technologické nástroje.

    Rostouci hladiny oceanu, zmena atmosferickeho proudeni, zmeny v distribuci srazek a sucha. Zmeny karbonoveho, fosforoveho a dusikoveho cyklu, okyselovani oceanu. Jake jsou bezpecnostni rizika a jake potencialni klady dramatickych zmen fungovani zemskeho systemu?
    Ale take jak funguji masove dezinformacni kampane ropneho prumyslu a boj o verejne mineni na prahu noveho klimatickeho rezimu post-holocenu.
    rozbalit záhlaví
    XCHAOS
    XCHAOS --- ---
    GOJATLA:
    DZODZO: něco jako "žerte, než to zakážou?". No, ono spíš v nějaký moment něco zdraží a něco ne. Emisní povoleny zdraží argentinské hovězí.. problém bude jen v tom, když loď nebude registrovaná v EU a současně budeme mít dohody o volném obchodu... vůbec emiise z lodní dopravy by mohla řešit jen mezinárodní regulace...
    GOJATLA
    GOJATLA --- ---
    DZODZO: Tomu rozumím, nejlíp chutná argentinský steak podávaný s trochou doomismu, guilty pleasure a nějakou mindfulness technikou...
    DZODZO
    DZODZO --- ---
    GOJATLA: ja mam ten hedonism, obcas si doprajem steak alebo burger kym sa este da
    PER2
    PER2 --- ---
    The Biden administration on Monday announced 32 countries have joined the United States in a pledge to reduce methane emissions, part of an effort to set new targets to slow global warming ahead of a major United Nations climate summit in Glasgow next month.

    More Than 30 Countries Join U.S. Pledge to Slash Methane Emissions - The New York Times
    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/11/climate/methane-global-climate.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimes
    GOJATLA
    GOJATLA --- ---
    YMLADRIS: Dej hlasovat, jak to kdo má :-)
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Fakta o klimatu
    https://twitter.com/faktaoklimatu/status/1447497996661399552?s=19

    Co se vlastně děje?
    V ČR dochází k umírání lesů ve velkých plochách – plošný rozpad lesa. Jde především o smrkové lesy v nižších polohách a částečně také lesy borové.
    Od roku 2016 bylo vytěženo 146000 ha mrtvých lesů.
    = čtverec o straně 38 km
    = cca 5 % rozlohy 🇨🇿lesní půdy

    Některé oblasti republiky jsou na tom hůře, než jiné. Obecně lze říci, že Morava* je na tom hůře než Čechy.
    V kraji Vysočina bylo od roku 2016 vykáceno přes 20 % jehličnatých lesů, v Jihomoravském, Moravskoslezském a Olomouckém kraji okolo 17 %.

    ...

    Dopad klimatické změny na české lesy je příkladná ukázka jaký vliv má růst průměrné globální teploty na naši společnost - prohlubuje problémy, které zde již máme.
    YMLADRIS
    YMLADRIS --- ---
    přemýšlela jsem o tom českém soft denialu (ano, klima se mění, ale nepřipouštím si dopad té změny). termín se používá od roku 2016 a Hoexter listed several beliefs or thought patterns that, in his observation, tend to contribute to soft climate denial:[10]

    Psychological isolation and compartmentalization – Events of everyday life usually lack an obvious connection to global warming. As such, people compartmentalize their awareness of global warming as abstract knowledge without taking any practical action. Hoexter identifies isolation/compartmentalization as the most common facet of soft denial.

    "Climate providentialism" – In post-industrial society, modern comforts and disconnection from nature lead to an assumption that the climate "will provide" for humans, regardless of drastic changes. Though named for a belief found in some forms of Christianity, Hoexter uses the term in a secular context and relates it to anthropocentrism.

    "Carbon gradualism" – An assumption that global warming can be addressed though minor "tweaks" conducted over extended periods of time. Proposals for more drastic change may be more realistic, but appear "radical" by comparison.

    Substitutionism – A tendency among politically engaged people to "substitute a high-minded pre-existing activist cause" in place of the more immediate challenge of fossil fuel phase-out. Hoexter associates substitutionism with eco-socialism, green anarchism, and the climate justice movement, which he said tends to prioritize "laudable and important concerns about environmental justice and inequality" at the expense of "the future-looking fight to stabilize the climate."

    Intellectualization – Engaging with climate change in a primarily academic context makes the issue an abstraction, lacking the visceral stimuli that prompt people to take concrete action.

    Localism – Emphasis on "small" changes to improve one's local environment is a well-intentioned but limited response to a problem on the scale of global warming.

    "Moral or intellectual narcissism" – Deriving a misplaced sense of superiority over "hard" climate deniers, soft deniers may come to believe that simply acknowledging the existence of climate change or expressing concern is sufficient by itself.

    "Confirmation of pre-existing worldview" – Because of cognitive inertia, people may fail to integrate the significance or scale of climate change the framework of their existing beliefs, knowledge, and priorities.

    Millenarianism – Activists become transfixed with a grand vision of an eventual, fundamental transformation of society, supplanting meaningful concrete action at the day-to-day level.

    Sectarianism – Activists may become preoccupied with a particular vision of climate policy and become caught up in the narcissism of small differences, tedious debates, and far-flung hypotheticals to the detriment of more productive activity.

    "Commitment to Hedonism" – The looming dread of climate change can emotionally overwhelm a person and may prompt a retreat into pleasure for its own sake. Alternately, people may indulge in pleasurable activities that they worry may not be readily accessible in a future society adapted to climate change.

    "Entente with nihilism, defeatism, and depression" – In Hoexter's view, genuine nihilism remains a tendency within "hard" denialism; however, people who feel disempowered or overwhelmed about climate change may come to accept an uneasy coexistence with such nihilism.

    According to Anne Pasek, the difficulty of comprehending the sheer scale of global warming and its effects can result in sincere (albeit ill-founded) belief that individual changes in behavior will suffice to address the problem without requiring more fundamental structural changes.[17] In political terms, soft climate denial can stem from concerns about the economics and economic impacts of climate change, particularly the concern that strong measures to combat global warming or mitigate its impacts will seriously inhibit economic growth.[18]
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Loss of GDP due to climate change - Infogram
    https://infogram.com/loss-of-gdp-due-to-climate-change-1h7k230dqgqpg2x

    A Tale of Two Europes: the climate induced North South Divide: heat, floods, food, infection, migration - predicted by me in 2012 in Jorgen Randers book 2052- based on the science - @piersforster @paulgilding @volansjohn @WayneVisser - https://t.co/fRUidPeLUB

    1972-2016 Limits to Growth Data Collection.zip | Ulož.to
    https://uloz.to/file/dJzr7UdrZ036/1972-2016-limits-to-growth-data-collection-zip#!ZGD1AGR1MTVjMwZ0Awp1LzAwLmtlAwZjJxccYwuYF0yhMTH2
    OMNIHASH
    OMNIHASH --- ---
    GLOBETROTTER: takže se chceš vymezit proti tomu obrázku, co vypadá, jako že ho kreslilo nějaký dítě na prvním stupni v hodině výtvarky v rámci nějakýho ekoprojektu? OK, píšeme si. Rasistická historka jako zvířátko na závěr taky pěkná.
    SUMAC
    SUMAC --- ---
    OMNIHASH: podobny je to v Londýně, Kodani a Amstru. V Londýně jsou modry stezky a pokud je to more tak a kolo absolutni prednost, zastavit musím akorát na semaforu s kolem.
    GLOBETROTTER
    GLOBETROTTER --- ---
    OMNIHASH: Budeš se divit, ale Berlín znám docela dobře. Tady jde ale o ty malůvky na webu té iniciativy. Žádné cyklopruhy tam nejsou. Cyklisti jezdí tam, kde si hrají děti. Tedy někdo je dokonce v tramvajových kolejích a i když jsem to zvětšil na 500% a vzal si nejsilnější brýle, tak mi není jasné, co tam dělají. Prostě nějaký idealismus bez reality. I když bez reality... - někdy na úplném začátku devadesátek jsem v Západním Berlíně viděl turecké děti, které si hrály v kolejišti S-bahnu (samozřejmě s napájením třetí kolejnicí). Šel jsem za dozorčím stanice, ten vylezl ven a když je viděl, mávl rukou a zase se vrátil na své stanoviště :-)
    OMNIHASH
    OMNIHASH --- ---
    GLOBETROTTER: simtě, tvoje bába je nebezpečná. Opravdu doporučuju ten Berlín navštívit. Jsem si přesně říkal minulej tejden, že tohle vidět nyxí petrolheadi, tak se poserou na místě. Všude miliarda cyklistů, co počítaj s tím, že maj přednost, a na auta tam kašlou, průměrná šestiproudovka měla z jednoho pruhu cyklostezku, z druhýho buspruh a poslední zbyl motoristům. Nějak jim to funguje. Na cyklostezkách je nekonečnej proud kolařů a koloběžkářů, tak hustej, že se fakt omylem nerozhodneš do něj vstoupit. Jak na magistrále, akorát nepotřebujou dvacetimetrovou tepnu, ale dvoumetrovou.
    DZODZO
    DZODZO --- ---
    GLOBETROTTER: praha ale nie je iba jedna ulica na nabrezi
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Steve Keen - The Macroeconomics of Degrowth: Can Planned Economic Contraction be Stable? - Brave New Europe
    https://braveneweurope.com/steve-keen-the-macroeconomics-of-degrowth-can-planned-economic-contraction-be-stable

    just as Covid-19 has severely jolted our consciousness, and led to policy changes that were unthinkable as recently as January 2020, what if these and subsequent ecological calamities shook humanity so much that we decided, belatedly but instantly, to impose the limits that Limits to Growth recommended we should implement 45 years ago? What would happen to global GDP?

    Answering this question thoroughly would require updating the Limits to Growth study with current data. This should have been happening on a regular basis since 1972, but it was prevented in large measure by the ferocious attacks on the study’s credibility by economists in general—and by William Nordhaus in particular (Nordhaus 1973; Nordhaus 1992). These attacks were based on misinformation and ignorance rather than knowledge (Forrester, Gilbert et al. 1974), but—or should I say “and”?—their impact was devastating. Though the book itself sold millions of copies, the group’s research funding evaporated. Whereas the original study was run on top of the line (for the time) mainframe computers at MIT, with a budget of the order of a million dollars in 1972, today Jorgen Randers, one of the authors of the original study, is working without pay on developing an extended version of the World3 model called MODCAP (using the PC-based system dynamics program Vensim). In 2019 he was unable to raise funds to continue employing his one assistant.
    GLOBETROTTER
    GLOBETROTTER --- ---
    OMNIHASH: Jasně, ale moje otázka zněla jinak. Jestli jsi z Prahy, vzpomeň si na akce Automatu na nábřeží. Bez obav jsem tam nechal běhat moje malé dítě. Nechal bych tam běhat moje malé dítě, kdyby tam sice nejezdila auta, ale jezdili tam motorkáři? Nenechal. Nechal bych tam běhat moje malé dítě, kdyby tam sice nejezdili motorkáři, ale jezdili tam lidi na elektrokolech a turisti na elektrokoloběžkách a segwayích? Nenechal.
    Jde mi o to, že pokud se snažíme ze životního prostoru vytěsnit auta, protože jsou nebezpečná a smrdí, tak je potřeba vytěsnit minimálně vše, co je buď nebezpečné a smrdí nebo nesmrdí, ale je nebezpečné. A možná i kola na lidský pohon, ne jen ty na elektriku.
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    In a World Fighting Climate Change, Fossil Fuels Take Revenge
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-10/in-a-world-fighting-climate-change-fossil-fuels-take-revenge?sref=866aH6XX

    fossil fuel demand is already flirting with pre-pandemic levels, which means emissions are on the rise too. On current trends, the combined consumption of coal, natural gas and oil is likely to hit an all-time high by mid-2022.

    “This is the revenge of the fossil fuels,” said Thierry Bros, an energy expert and professor at Sciences Po in Paris.

    The situation points to a daunting new phase for the energy transition, with growing tensions among the disparate policy objectives of simultaneously reducing emissions, keeping prices low, and guaranteeing security of supply. The pace of the effort could even be at risk if soaring prices dent public support for climate policies.

    ...

    The demand surge has challenged many assumptions about how quickly the world would decabornize. Faced with an energy crisis, many consuming nations zoned in on older fuels. The White House urged the OPEC cartel to increase oil production fast, and the International Energy Agency asked Russia to pump more gas. China ordered banks to prioritize loans to coal miners to boost supplies.

    ...

    And yet, the world’s dirtiest fossil fuel won’t go away. Global consumption peaked in 2014, but rather than fall rapidly, as many expected, it stabilized in a gentle plateau. And now, just as the fight against climate change intensifies, it’s growing again, with the resurgence largely driven by China.


    OMNIHASH
    OMNIHASH --- ---
    GLOBETROTTER:doporučuju se ject do toho Berlína podívat, elektrokola a koloběžky tam v centru používá imho víc lidí než auta a infrastruktury na to maj víc než dost. Motorek jsem tam viděl minimum.
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Unextractable fossil fuels in a 1.5 °C world | Nature
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03821-8

    Here we use a global energy systems model8 to assess the amount of fossil fuels that would need to be left in the ground, regionally and globally, to allow for a 50 per cent probability of limiting warming to 1.5 °C. By 2050, we find that nearly 60 per cent of oil and fossil methane gas, and 90 per cent of coal must remain unextracted to keep within a 1.5 °C carbon budget. This is a large increase in the unextractable estimates for a 2 °C carbon budget9, particularly for oil, for which an additional 25 per cent of reserves must remain unextracted. Furthermore, we estimate that oil and gas production must decline globally by 3 per cent each year until 2050. This implies that most regions must reach peak production now or during the next decade, rendering many operational and planned fossil fuel projects unviable. We probably present an underestimate of the production changes required, because a greater than 50 per cent probability of limiting warming to 1.5 °C requires more carbon to stay in the ground and because of uncertainties around the timely deployment of negative emission technologies at scale.
    GLOBETROTTER
    GLOBETROTTER --- ---
    GLOBETROTTER: Tak nejlepší zdroj je samozřejmě strejda Gůgl :-) Tady je originál a pokud se nemýlím, řeší se jen auta. Ostatní hlučné nebo nebezpečné dopravní prostředky se neřeší, což IMHO tu iniciativu dost degraduje
    Volksentscheid Berlin autofrei
    https://volksentscheid-berlin-autofrei.de/
    GLOBETROTTER
    GLOBETROTTER --- ---
    GLOBETROTTER: Máte někdo nějaký lepší zdroj než Lidovky? Ono už jen toto: "Prstenec zóny města, která by do budoucna měla být bez aut, ohraničuje berlínská podzemka S-Bahn." svědčí o diletantismu pisálka.
    Řeší ta petice taky motorky (které v noci budí lidi mnohem víc než auta), elektrokola, elektrokoloběžky atd.?
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    aneb you cannot solve climate change with ideology...

    smesovat emise uhliku se znecistenim, odpalkovat drevo, kdyz zdroje energie se daj vyhodnotit pouze kontextualne, jelikoz jde o ruznorode cykly, ne jednotlive faze cyklu (drevo, maso, zrno, ...)

    tezky pro nas malej mozecek

    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    nbc

    How The West Was Lost: Climate Change | Meet The Press Reports
    https://youtu.be/DU-CG2NKv9Q
    Kliknutím sem můžete změnit nastavení reklam