Bill McKibben

Basic IPCC formula, in order
1) build massive amounts of (now cheap) sun and wind
2) Electrify everything to run on it
3) Conservation and efficiency
4) Research the hell out of the last hard stuff (planes, cement, etc)
5) Stop cutting down trees for cows (or anything else)

SHEFIK: nevim, nemluvim o moralnim ani idealnim :)

proste pokud nebudes mit diesel a soucastky do stroju, tak zacnes masivne vyuzivat zvirata (a lidi), protoze to je zpusob, jakym v ekosystemu smerujes energii. neindustrialni zemedelstvi je zalozeny na transformacich skrz houby, mikroby, rostliny, zvirata...

ta ciste synteticka/neekosystemova cesta je mozna v principu.

oddelit se od fosilnich zdroju zahrnuje i synteticky hnojiva, pesticidy, nejen energii do stroju (vyuzivanejch, ne nutne, ale vetsinove, k destrukci pudy).

a to nezahrnuje vsechno to chlazeni, mrazeni, suseni, zprocesovani, transport, etc.

SHEFIK: Veris, ze jsme aktualne schopni nahradit diesel v ekosystemu zviraty, aniz by to melo dopad na objem rocni produkce?
Absolune bez problemu, na skale cca 15-20 let transformace a v dusledku za velmi nizkou cenu.

Summary novyho IPCC reportu… Jak sesekat emise? Imho nejdulezitejsi dokument nasi geneerace. Tak cteme ,))

https://twitter.com/gernotwagner/status/1511002088670736385?s=21

domino / stress test

Farmers on the Brink - Doomberg
https://doomberg.substack.com/p/farmers-on-the-brink?s=r

The tempest caused by the European energy disaster has merged with the hurricane of consequences flowing from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, forming the genesis of a generational crisis in food that will leave few unaffected. While we’ve been warning about just such a scenario for some time, after spending the past two weeks traveling across the US Midwest and conferring with our contacts in the agricultural sector, even we are a little spooked by what we’ve learned. In a financial crash, the correlation between all asset classes converges to one. The coming crash in global food supply will be driven by a similar phenomenon across virtually every input into farming – they are all spiking to historic highs simultaneously, supply availability is diminishing across the spectrum, and the time to reverse the worst of the upcoming consequences is rapidly running short.

Other than that, things are great.

We begin with the price of fertilizer, which has been soaring to record highs across the globe. Key sources of nitrogen, potassium, and phosphorous – important inputs into soil fertility, crop yield, and plant maintenance – have all gone vertical. Ammonia is derived directly from natural gas, and the price of natural gas outside of the US has gone vertical. It's no surprise that the price of ammonia has tripled over the past twelve months. Belarus is the third-largest supplier of potash in the world and its state-owned miner, Belaruskali, declared force majeure after sanctions were imposed by the US and Europe. The number two supplier of potash globally? Russia. Perhaps front-running the Russian move on Ukraine, China halted phosphate exports last fall in an effort to ensure adequate domestic supply

...

Glyphosate is effectively little more than an elegantly modified fertilizer, containing both phosphorous and nitrogen. It is derived from similar starting materials – including ammonia – and, as such, its price has soared amid chronic supply shortages. This has caused the price of other herbicides to rise as farmers desperately seek substitutes

...

Diesel is another significant input into farming, and it too is facing a global supply crunch. Javier Blas, an energy and commodities columnist at Bloomberg: global diesel consumption surged to a fresh all-time high in the fourth quarter of 2021. The boom reflects the lopsided Covid economic recovery, with transportation demand spiking to ease supply-chain messes.

European refineries have struggled to match this revival in demand. One key reason is pricey natural gas. Refineries use gas to produce hydrogen, which they then use to remove sulphur from diesel. The spike in gas prices in late 2021 made that process prohibitively expensive, cutting diesel output.”

...

As expensive as it is to fuel the field equipment needed to farm, keeping them operational at all is becoming an ever-growing challenge. The same chip shortage constraining automobile production has struck the farming equipment industry, making new equipment and spare parts harder to come by.

...

the US exits the winter of 2021-2022 with concerningly low levels of propane inventory, well-below typical averages for this time of year: What does propane supply have to do with farming? Grain drying

not unrelated

Úřady práce se hroutí. Řeší dopady energetické krize i uprchlíky – A2larm
https://a2larm.cz/2022/04/urady-prace-se-hrouti-resi-dopady-energeticke-krize-i-uprchliky/

"Věda mluví jasně. Abychom udrželi limit 1,5 stupně oteplení dohodnutý v Paříži živý, musíme v tomto desetiletí snížit globální emise o 45 procent.
Současné klimatické závazky by ale znamenaly 14procentní nárůst. A většina hlavních znečišťovatelů ani nepodniká kroky potřebné ke splnění i těch nedostatečných slibů."

TADEAS:

IPCC report: ‘now or never’ if world is to stave off climate disaster | Climate crisis | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/apr/04/ipcc-report-now-or-never-if-world-stave-off-climate-disaster

António Guterres: Jsme na cestě ke světu, kde se nebude dát žít - Ekolist.cz
https://ekolist.cz/cz/publicistika/nazory-a-komentare/antonio-guterres-jsme-na-ceste-ke-svetu-kde-se-nebude-dat-zit?sznclid=8JmUzcHByMXHxMLHxMPGxMDAxcPFwMPFjITNwcXHyMPBxMDAyN7Jx8GMhJXNwcbEycDIxsjExN7CxMGMk821tbTAyLG0wrHDsci1tLLIybbAwcW0tcXGx8TJxMm0tQ#dop_ab_variant=0&dop_source_zone_name=hpfeed.sznhp.box&dop_vert_ab=0&dop_vert_id=leg0&dop_req_id=wJDKc4bJMuG-202204041544&dop_id=16017061


Porota dospěla k verdiktu. Závěr je zdrcující. Nová zpráva Mezivládního panelu pro změnu klimatu je litanií nedodržených klimatických slibů. Je to spis plný hanby, zaznamenávající prázdné sliby, které nás pevně usazují na cestu ke světu, kde se nedá žít.
Směřujeme rychle ke klimatické katastrofě. Velká města pod vodou, nebývalá vedra, silné bouře, nedostatek vody na mnoha místech, vyhynutí milionu druhů rostlin a živočichů. Není to fikce ani nadsázka.
To, co věda v této zprávě předvídá, bude výsledkem naší současné energetické politiky. Jsme na cestě ke globálnímu oteplení o více než dvojnásobek limitu 1,5 stupně, na kterém se státy dohodly v Paříži. Někteří lídři vlád a soukromých společností říkají jednu věc, ale dělají druhou. Jednoduše řečeno, lžou. A dopady budou katastrofální.
Žijeme v čase klimatické nouze. Klimatologové varují, že jsme již nebezpečně blízko bodům zvratu, které by mohly vést ke kaskádovým a nevratným klimatickým dopadům.

SCHWEPZ: to jsou vtipalci

‘No hope for science in Russia’: the academics trying to flee to the west | Russia | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/02/no-hope-science-russia-academics-trying-flee-to-west

Arctic climate scientific research imperiled by Putin regime's invasion of Ukraine, G20 sanctions and Russian censorship.

Quote Anna Fazackerley: ‘No hope for science in Russia’: the academics trying to flee to the west. Prof John Duggan*, a climate scientist at a Russell Group university, had a Zoom call a few weeks ago with two Russian research partners shortly after their country invaded Ukraine. Duggan, who has worked with the academics for a while, suddenly found them “unusually quiet and hesitant”. He sensed that “they were worried someone was looking over their shoulder”.

In Russia, expressing opposition to the invasion is risky. But in subsequent calls Duggan says his friends have become bolder. Now they have given up hope for their work at home. They feel there is “no future for science in Russia” and are seeking positions abroad so they can flee. Given that criticising the war can now lead to 15 years in prison in Russia, Duggan describes all communications with the scientists he is trying to help as deliberately “ambiguous”. But he says: “They feel shame at what is being done in their name in Ukraine.”

Last Sunday, the science minister, George Freeman, announced that the UK would follow other European countries in cutting the bulk of its research ties with Russia and switching off funding for any research with links to the state and its “institutional collaborators”. The Russian government last week prohibited its scientists from taking part in international conferences or publishing research in international journals. Russian scientists say there is some appetite to ignore this, but there are reports that they are being blocked from publishing abroad anyway because some western academics are refusing to review research papers with Russian names on.

Callaghan has helped establish 89 environmental research stations in the Arctic, 21 of which are in Russia, but says “lots of our research is now frozen because of the invasion”. “I’m absolutely sure many scientists will leave Russia. Putin has divided the nation, but scientists tend to speak English and they also read the internet so they understand what is really happening in Ukraine.”