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    TUHOKlimaticka zmena / Thank you so much for ruining my day
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    catch the ball

    Climate Change Is the Express Train to Hell — And We’re On It | by umair haque | Sep, 2022 | Eudaimonia and Co
    https://eand.co/climate-change-is-the-express-train-to-hell-and-were-on-it-2b97b850d9f3

    people assume that the future distribution of temperatures is something like a bell curve, and in the center is the “likeliest” amount of warming, which is moderate. At the tails of the curve lies the “extreme” scenarios, which are “unlikely.” Assuming all that, people are constantly shocked and surprised by how fast and hard climate change is hitting. And that is because this mental model is wrong. The future distribution of temperatures is emphatically not a bell curve. It’s something much more problematic, and even frightening when you really think about it. It’s the precise opposite of a bell curve: a bimodal distribution. Not shaped like a gentle bell, but the diametrical inverse — a U-shape.

    That means, in practice, that climate change is something very much like an all-or-nothing process. Either there’s a lot of it — or there’s a little. But a little is what we’ve got now — about 1.5 degrees or thereabouts, and that’s already mega-catastrophic. So what does “a lot” mean? And how is it to happen? Why is climate change risk not bell-curved, but bimodal?

    Because climate change is a nonlinear process. We humans don’t do well with those, and I’ll come back to that — but briefly, we’re used to linearity: linear growth in economies, populations, and so forth. Here, when it comes to climate change, we’re dealing with something much, much more dangerous, something existentially, ontologically different — something fundamentally nonlinear in its very essence. We are totally unused to that, mentally, socially, culturally. What else is nonlinear? A pandemic, for example. Nonlinear processes can suddenly tip, explode, burst, bifurcate — shattering the boundaries of our assumptions of linear “normality.”

    ...

    We’re making a mistake. Climate change isn’t the regular train. We’re about to catch the express train to hell. We can’t just stop anywhere we like, we’re discovering. The next stop? It might be way, way further north than we want to go. It might be in such a desolate place that our very survival is in question.

    Everyone should understand this logic. Too few do. Now you know. Because the obvious conclusion is: we had better stop as much of that nonlinear process of acceleration, now, as we can, because once this ride starts in earnest? There’s probably not going to be a next stop, except hell.
    PETER_PAN
    PETER_PAN --- ---
    PETER_PAN: Samozrejmne te novinarsky popis toho procesu nad obrazkem je velmi zjednodusen a nepouziva spravne zabehnuty chemicky popis jednotlivych kroku. Ale pro predstavu jakoze sedi.
    PETER_PAN
    PETER_PAN --- ---
    PETER_PAN: O tomhle na nyxu pisu dlouho.

    To co je oznaceno jako palivo muze byt i monomer pro polymerizaci s dlouhodobou fixaci uhliku, nebo treba syntetickej methan. Vsechno od vycisteni syntezniho plynu dal umime v prumyslovem meritku desitky let.

    Kazdopadne, neresi to uhlikovou stopu, jen ji to v dusledku redukuje o desitky procent (odpady nazdarbuh nespalime a pro H2/elektrinu/paliva nepouzijeme fosil). Hlavne je to tedy nahrada za ropu pro dulezite technologicke meziprodukty.

    Syntezni plyn lze generovat i ze zachyceneho CO2, v mikrovlnych reaktorech (male, skalovatelne jednotky, vyuzitelne v budoucnu pri nadbytku zejmena letni solarni energie). Pak je tedy produkt pri pouziti uhlikove neutralni elektriny take uhlikove neutralni. Jen pro uplnost a hlavne k uvaham proc potrebujeme syngas → produkt(y) v prumyslovem meritku ASAP a pak postupne rozvijet rozlicne technologie na vyrobu syngasu (mimojine i biotechnologicky, i kdyz tam je otazka jestli negenerovat rovnou methan).

    A pro kontext jeste zrecykluju svuj stary prispevek zameren na problematiku plastu : [PETER_PAN @ ENERGIE - ALTERNATIVNÍ ZDROJE - BUDOUCÍ ZDROJE ENERGIE]
    PETER_PAN
    PETER_PAN --- ---
    Zvrátí krizi i plyn z odpadu? Reaktor už máme, hlásí česká firma | Finmag.cz
    https://finmag.penize.cz/byznys/436474-zvrati-krizi-i-plyn-z-odpadu-reaktor-uz-mame-hlasi-ceska-firma

    Podstata technologie plazmového zplynování je poměrně jednoduchá. Působením vysoké teploty je v prostředí bez přebytku kyslíku rozkládán libovolný materiál. Výron plazmatu vytvoří teploty kolem tří až pěti tisíc stupňů Celsia, které zpřetrhají molekulární vazby a vstupní materiál se tak rozpadne na molekulární úroveň. Organické části materiálu, tedy kyslíky, uhlíky a vodíky spolu posléze složí syntézní plyn. Naopak anorganická část se roztaví a po vychladnutí z ní vznikne struska. Vše, co ji tvoří, je uzamčeno v její krystalické struktuře, a je proto bezpečná pro další využití například ve stavebnictví.

    YMLADRIS
    YMLADRIS --- ---
    MATT: on tehdy napsal clanek a ted z toho tematu udelal knizku
    MATT
    MATT --- ---
    PETER_PAN: jsem asi u patyho odstavce, ale až moc se to shoduje se 4 roky starym článkem, dokonce ve stejném guardianu..

    How tech's richest plan to save themselves after the apocalypse | Silicon Valley | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/jul/23/tech-industry-wealth-futurism-transhumanism-singularity
    MATT
    MATT --- ---
    YMLADRIS
    YMLADRIS --- ---
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Assessing the size and uncertainty of remaining carbon budgets | Research Square
    https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-1934427/v1

    https://twitter.com/RobinLamboll/status/1566773538920443905?s=19

    If we take 280 ppm as the pre-industrial CO2 level and 3 ºC as the climate sensitivity, we see that 350 ppm would be just below +1.0 ºC.

    For a climate sensitivity of 6 ºC, all of the numbers DOUBLE in the temperature column above. Thus 350 ppm causes +2.0 ºC of heating. For whom is that safe? Two degrees is not safe for Africa, the Amazon, and especially not for low-lying island nations.

    Two degrees is probably a safe limit for the civilization of Western capitalism – the real "stakeholders" at COP meetings. But as shown on the chart, the CO2 level that will ensure such warming was reached way back in May 1986 !!

    By April 2012 there was enough CO2 in the atmosphere to cause +3.0 ºC. That's enough heating for no ice in the Arctic, Greenland or West Antarctica, no coral reefs, no Amazon, scarce food crops – and probably no civilization. At 420 ppm we are today assured of +3.5 ºC.

    The premise of today's obscene "carbon budgets" is a target of +2.0 ºC heating, while using a short-term climate sensitivity of only 3 ºC. That would explain the plutocratic hubris to drive the planet up to 450 ppm. It's short-term physics for short-term profiteers.

    We are now collectively starring into the abyss of decimated ice albedo and crashing biological systems that turn sinks into sources. Skies are red, the Arctic is blue, and fields are brown.

    Methane seems to be pouring into the atmosphere so fast that we can barely keep track of its sources.

    These inevitable feedbacks and paleoclimate research tell us the same thing, over and over: Climate sensitivity is much higher. 450 ppm will give us +4.0 ºC instead.
    DZODZO
    DZODZO --- ---
    SHEFIK: treba sa zamerat na vyskum bielych solarov a sme za vodou
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    PETER_PAN: uz tu bylo vickrat, me ta prezentace prijde takova tendencni, eg: these guys were obsessed with outrunning the end of the world that they were creating through their drive to outrun the end of the world. They were singularly uninterested in preventing the end of the world, or even in surviving it through solidarity and mutual aid

    "these guys jsou nejaky tech miliardari. muzou mit potencialne velkej informacni vliv ale nemyslim, ze ten financni, ten je porad ve svete fosilu, nerostnejch zdroju, starsiho prumyslovyho kapitalu, v opozici vuci nemuz ten technologickej vyrost ale otazka jak moc je nezavislej. tj. neprecenoval bych to jejich "they are creating"

    Just 10 Big Shareholders Hold Key To Controlling The Climate Crisis TADEAS

    Within the CU200 group, just 10 shareholders own 49.5 percent of the potential emissions from the world's largest energy firms and have a gargantuan influence over the fossil fuel market.

    These actors included: Blackrock, Vanguard, the Government of India, State Street, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Dimensional Fund Advisors, Life insurance Corporation, Norges Bank, Fidelity Investments, and Capital Group
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Velká klimatická stávka studentů z celé východní Evropy bude v Praze - Studentské listy
    https://slisty.cz/velka-klimaticka-stavka-studentu-z-cele-vychodni-evropy-bude-v-praze/

    Česká odnož hnutí Fridays For Future Česká republika Fridays For Future připravuje v reakci na blížící se listopadovou klimatickou konferenci OSN společně s dalšími organizacemi z Česka i zahraničí východoevropskou stávku za klima s navazujícím klimatickým kempem. Proběhne 21. října v Praze. Akci Friday For Future oficiálně představilo dnes, avizovalo ji už minulý týden na svém sjezdu, kterému předcházela páteční klimatická stávka
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    TADEAS:

    Jem Bendell - The biggest mistakes in climate communications, part 2 - Climate Brightsiding - Brave New Europe
    https://braveneweurope.com/jem-bendell-the-biggest-mistakes-in-climate-communications-part-2-climate-brightsiding

    this second part of my essay on key mistakes in climate communication, I explore what kind of alarm is warranted about the climate crisis.
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    COVID-19: the case for prosociality - The Lancet
    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(22)01761-5/fulltext

    The Lancet Commission on lessons for the future from the COVID-19 pandemic, published on Sept 15, lays bare what has been nothing less than a massive global failure—a failure of rationality, transparency, norms of public health practice, operational coordination, and international solidarity.
    ...
    The Commission gives recommendations in three main areas.
    ...
    Third, ambitious proposals to ignite a renaissance in multilateralism, integrating the global response to the risk of future pandemics with actions to address the climate crisis and reversals in sustainable development. In this way, the Commission boldly sets out a vision of a different future, defined by a properly financed and better-prepared global architecture that is driven by cooperation and shared responsibility rather than globalised profit-seeking.
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    Skleníkové peklo Španělsku prospívá. A nám by možná mohlo pomoci taky - Ekolist.cz
    https://ekolist.cz/cz/publicistika/priroda/sklenikove-peklo-spanelsku-prospiva.a-nam-by-mozna-mohlo-prospet-taky

    V roce 2018 už byl tento „fakt“ akceptován a doložen další studií, kdy už se hovořilo o ochlazení v regionálním měřítku o 1 °C. A tehdy se také začalo šířeji diskutovat o pozitivech skleníkové krajiny Plastového moře.

    ...

    Až 45 % celkové uhlíkové stopy zdejšího skleníkového zemědělství lze považovat za kompenzované zvýšeným albedem, které neutralizuje globální oteplování v oblasti, a také v planetárním měřítku, kde částečně kompenzuje celkovou uhlíkovou stopu.
    MARSHUS
    MARSHUS --- ---
    doporučuju sledovat https://twitter.com/NWSAlaska v tuhle chvíli, kdy se post-tropická bouře Merbok opírá do Aljašky a přechází do Arktického oceánu #collapseporn

    The center of ex-typhoon Merbok is about to make its way through the Bering Strait and enter the Chukchi Sea this morning. GOES water vapor imagery from the overnight hours. #akwx
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    PER2: nejsem si uplne jisty v jakym kontextu linkujes? CBSnews rika, ze recovery ozonove diry zpusobene freony by melo byt do 2070. Plus rika, ze v roce 2021 byla dira vetsi nez se v techto modelech ocekavalo.

    Clanek ktery jsem linkoval ja rika, ze, ze krome freonu nove objevili, ze je vyznamny i Iodine, ktery v atmosfere pribyva diky antropogennimu pusobeni (oceany+tani polarnich ledovcu)

    PETER_PAN: me prijde, ze ta 'nevira' ve spolecnost a jeji schopnost prekonavat prekazky neni jen na strane super-rich...
    Kliknutím sem můžete změnit nastavení reklam