TADEAS: dobrej rozhodvor, anderson do rockstroma celkem subtilne šíje, ale kdyz si to tak clovek prelozi, tak to je fakt takovej hodne sofistikovanej zpusob v podstate vedomyho denialu (od rockstromma) - nebudu radsi rikat, jaky klicky (negativni emise) v tech modelech jsou, protoze uz tak jsou nase aspirace uplne na hrane (i s tema klickama), takze let's hope for the best a nemysleme moc na realnou situaci



28:10 voluntary carbon schemes - "we really need to invest in nature, but we cannot use these sinks as offsets"

31:40 "we have failed so much, kicking the can down the road for so many decades, that the carbon budget can only exist thanks to assumptions of negative carbon emissions technologies"


rockstrom: rapidni snizovani emisi je dve procenta rocne, udrzeni 1.5 stupne je okolo 7 procent rocne, a udrzeni 1.5 bez CCS technologii je pres 10-15 procent rocne, coz by znamenalo totalni civilizacni marshalluv plan

Johan Rockström interview | Planetary boundaries, 'negative emissions', mitigation models & fairness
https://youtu.be/lLq8e73-FAw?si=ltNE7wE4dx4_IHhz


In this wide-ranging conversation with Kevin Anderson, recorded in Norway in March 2023, they discuss their respective views on the risks and challenges we face in delivering on our Paris climate commitments.

CONTENTS:
00:00 Introductions
01:05 Outlining the planetary boundary & tipping points framework
05:14 How long before we see tipping points occurring?
10:00 Climate impacts this century
17:45 Understanding the conservatism of the IPCC process
24:20 Integrated Assessment Models: do they rely too much on CO2 removal?
28:58 Is the promise of future 'carbon dioxide removal' undermining emission reductions?
37:06 How ready to deploy are 'negative emissions technologies' really?
40:39 Where is equity in Integrated Assessment Models?
46:36 Privileged scientists in wealthy countries have framed the mitigation agenda
49:15 Is change driven top-down or bottom-up?
52:21 The role for citizens' assemblies in guiding mitigation policy
56:39 Is academia biased towards the status quo, rather than real action on climate

TADEAS: souhlasim, az na to, ze k tomu kolapsu dojit nemusi. Resp. zalezi na tom, co definujes jako kolaps. K nejake transformaci (energeticke, materialni, socialni) urcite dojit musi. Me 'degrowth' proste vadi v tom, ze omezuje tu volnost (s mene zdroji focus na preziti) a rychlost transformace (ptze overall mensi investicni kapital) = pri soucasne velikosti spolecnosti to muze vyustit jen ve dva scenare:

A) odvraceni klimaticke zmeny bude dochazet vyrazne pomaleji, tedy horsi nasledky

B) spolecnost se zameri na odvraceni klimatickych zmen na ukor ostatniho, tedy v dusledku vice mrtvych


TUHO: mas pravdu, celej sem necet. Zkusim si na to udelat cas, jen nechci travit cas ctenim po stopadesaty toho, ze resenim klimaticke krize je se uskromnit, pac to neadresuje v plne mire ten root cause

Btw momentalne docitam knizku Fixing Climate, biografie Wallace Broeckera (to je ten typek, kterej v 70. letech vysekl tenhle graf



Doporucuju vsem se zajmem o tema, cte se to jak dobra detektivka. Neuveritelny vhledy do jednotlivejch metodologii, srandovni storky o silenejch klimatolozich, ktery si vymejsleli projekty na mereni CO2, protoze radi chodili kempovat (Keeling) nebo prozili roky ve stanech v Antarktide nebo na vojenskejch zakladnach v Gronsku, aby kurva vyrezali kilometry ledu (Dansgaard, Alley) nebo stravili roky na lodich, aby pumpovali stovky litru vody z kilometrovejch hloubek a v improvizovanejch labech delali radioizotopovou analyzu, aby zjistili jak fungujou oceansky proudy (Broecker).

https://us.macmillan.com/books/9780809045020/fixingclimate

A momentalne to vypada

In-depth Q&A: The IPCC’s sixth assessment report on climate science - Carbon Brief
https://www.carbonbrief.org/in-depth-qa-the-ipccs-sixth-assessment-report-on-climate-science/

Btw pekny shrnuti rizik

https://twitter.com/ProfMarkMaslin/status/1701201284437516406/photo/1

SHEFIK: Kdybych chtel bejt vtipnej, tak reknu, ze mene neceho znamena klidne vice matematika vubec nepopira, dokonce se to uci na zakladni skole a rika se tomu neprima umera .))
Ale vtipnej nechci bejt, tak jenom vyjadrim podezreni, ze vzhledem k mimobeznosti kritky si ten clanek necet.

TUHO: ano, na papire vypada komunismus take dobre. Skoda jen, ze matematika veli, ze mene neceho proste znamena mene. Pak tu mame mezistatni konkurenci, zadne globalni dodrzovani stejnych politik nikdy nenastane. A pak, lze prohlasit, ze aktualne socialni a ekologicke vydaje nemame? Pri degrowth jich nebude vic.

Jedine, na cem muzes ziskat je efektivita utilizace/ucelu penez. To lze ale pri jakekoliv politice, neni to vysadou nejakych degrowth utopii.

SHEFIK: jak predpovedela systemicka kabala ,)

TUHO: Carlson neni vubec dulezity. To co Bregman rikal ovsem obsahuje jednu velmi dulezitou vec, kterou zkousis zakecat tim, ze slo o dane:

“I mean 1,500 private jets have flown in here to hear Sir David Attenborough speak about how we’re wrecking the planet," he said.

Dokud se tohle nevyresi, cely klimaalarmismus bude pro bezne lidi vypadat jako pimprlata pro nejvetsi bohace.

Tak hura na evropskej degrowth. Kdyz nad tim premyslim, mohl by to byt jeden z klimatickych tipping pointu. Cim hur nam bude, tim vice levnych reseni (bez prirazky za sustainability) bude lidstvo uplatnovat. Oreze 'zbytne' sluzby (napr. socialni prispevky), bude se vic zadluzovat, nebude strategicky investovat (napr. na klimatickou adaptaci, nasledky katastrof), zvysi se nezamestnanost, roztoci se degrowth spirala, v duchu Velke deprese

Nižší prosperita i výkonnost evropských ekonomik. Spotřeba plynu se propadá - iDNES.cz
https://www.idnes.cz/ekonomika/zahranicni/spotreba-plyn-nemecko-evropa-prumysl-chemie-vyroba.A230912_115310_eko-zahranicni_jla

Je to velmi slabá poptávka, která negativně dopadá na prosperitu evropských průmyslových firem i výkonnost některých ekonomik. Podle odborníků ze společnosti S&P Global Commodity Insights bude letošní poptávka po plynu v evropském průmyslu až o 20 procent nižší než v roce 2021.

2023 Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries
https://www.science.org/doi/full/10.1126/sciadv.adh2458

This planetary boundaries framework update finds that six of the nine boundaries are transgressed, suggesting that Earth is now well outside of the safe operating space for humanity. Ocean acidification is close to being breached, while aerosol loading regionally exceeds the boundary. Stratospheric ozone levels have slightly recovered. The transgression level has increased for all boundaries earlier identified as overstepped. As primary production drives Earth system biosphere functions, human appropriation of net primary production is proposed as a control variable for functional biosphere integrity. This boundary is also transgressed. Earth system modeling of different levels of the transgression of the climate and land system change boundaries illustrates that these anthropogenic impacts on Earth system must be considered in a systemic context.

degrowth meets modern minetary theory

Abstract
Degrowth lacks a theory of how the state can finance ambitious social-ecological policies and public provisioning systems while maintaining macroeconomic stability during a reduction of economic activity. Addressing this question, we present a synthesis of degrowth scholarship and Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) rooted in their shared understanding of money as a public good and their common opposition to artificial scarcity. We present two arguments. First, we draw on MMT to argue that states with sufficient monetary sovereignty face no obstacle to funding the policies necessary for a just and sustainable degrowth transition. Increased public spending neither requires nor implies GDP growth. Second, we draw on degrowth research to bring MMT in line with ecological reality. MMT posits that fiscal spending is limited only by inflation, and thus the productive capacity of the economy. We argue that efforts to deal with this constraint must also pay attention to social and ecological limits. Based on this synthesis we propose a set of monetary and fiscal policies suitable for a stable degrowth transition, including a stronger regulation of private finance, tax reforms, price controls, public provisioning systems and an emancipatory job guarantee. This approach can support broad democratic mobilization for a degrowth transition.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921800923002318

SCHWEPZ: s tím docela souvisí tohle - beru zpět, že carbon capture nedává smysl, pokud se carbon capture nedělá u komínů uhelných elektráren, ale u výdechů z kancelářských budov, tak docela smysl dává:
Engineers Want to Make Methanol by Pulling Carbon Right Out of the Air - Universe Today
https://www.universetoday.com/163200/engineers-want-to-make-methanol-by-pulling-carbon-right-out-of-the-air/

NJAL: popisek trosku vytrzenej z kontextu. mluvil o tom, ze je treba danit bohaty - a ze na konferenci nikdo nemluvi o daneni bohatych (na konferenci hasicu, kde nikdo nemluvi o vode). jinak je to ot, ale kdyz sk to nacal, pozval si ho i tucker carlson (ale intervire neslo podle jeho pllanu, tak ho neodvysilal, nastesti si to bregman nahraval)

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=6_nFI2Zb7qE&pp=ygUOYnJlZ21hbiB0dWNrZXI%3D