(a taky rok do kteryho kurzweill umistuje AGI)


In early 2029, Earth will likely lock into breaching key warming threshold, scientists calculate | AP News
https://apnews.com/article/warming-carbon-climate-change-too-late-943b4b34bff5110631c2e02f5cdf7d68

In a little more than five years – sometime in early 2029 – the world will likely be unable to stay below the internationally agreed temperature limit for global warming if it continues to burn fossil fuels at its current rate, a new study says.

The study moves three years closer the date when the world will eventually hit a critical climate threshold, which is an increase of 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) since the 1800s.

Beyond that temperature increase, the risks of catastrophes increase, as the world will likely lose most of its coral reefs, a key ice sheet could kick into irreversible melt, and water shortages, heat waves and death from extreme weather dramatically increase, according to an earlier United Nations scientific report.

Zajimavej typek pise o filozofii klimatickych modelu

Eric Winsberg - Wikipedia
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eric_Winsberg

Klimatolog Stephen Schneider v dokumentu z roku 1981 mluvi o klimatickejch modelech

Climate Change - Warming Warning - 1981
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zVQgyn-zP18

Hele a tady bozi summary na historie klimatologie od americkeho historika a fyzika Spencer Wearta. Jak jsme prisli na to, ze se ohriva - a jak jsme si zavreli cestu, k tomu abysme se vyhnuli nebezpecny klimaticky zmene. Tyve dneska to na me nejak dopada... Cistu si tu historii takhle v kontextu, je tak strasne depresivni.

By the late 1970s global temperatures had begun to rise again. Since the late 1950s some climate scientists had been predicting that an unprecedented global warming would become apparent around the year 2000. Their worries finally caught wide public attention in the summer of 1988, the hottest on record till then. Computer modeler James Hansen made headlines when he told a Congressional hearing and journalists that greenhouse warming was almost certainly underway. And a major international meeting of scientists in Toronto called on governments to undertake active steps to cut greenhouse gas emissions.

The response was vehement. Corporations and individuals who opposed all government regulation began to spend millions of dollars on lobbying, advertising, and "reports" that mimicked scientific publications, striving to convince the public that there was no problem at all. Environmental groups, less wealthy but more enthusiastic, helped politicize the issue with urgent cries of alarm. The many scientific uncertainties, and the sheer complexity of climate, made room for limitless debate over what actions, if any, governments should take.
...

If every nation met its target, what would they achieve? The science remained stubbornly imprecise, for the global climate system is a tangle of many interacting influences. Scientists did know that without stronger and prolonged efforts we were likely to get a rise to 2.5°C or more. That would be a desperately wounded world, where it would be difficult to sustain a civilization that was anywhere prosperous and peaceful. And we would face a small but real risk of triggering unstoppable heating, to a point where it would be difficult to sustain any civilization at all.

Future diplomacy would have to press urgently for stronger pledges and see that they were fulfilled. The world’s climate experts explained that we had delayed action for so long that we could now avoid grave harm only if global emissions did not just level off, but began to plunge by the year 2030. The policies set during the decade of the 2020s would determine the state of the planet’s climate for thousands of years to come. Fortunately, the expense of making the necessary changes in our economic and social systems would be far less than the cost of allowing climate change to continue, and would bring numerous other benefits. Ever more people and organizations saw that the work was in their own interest and began to undertake it.

Introduction - Summary
https://history.aip.org/climate/summary.htm

Sbornik o existencnich rizicich - vystup konference ze Stanfordu. Prispevek tam ma i kral historie klimatologie Paul N. Edwards (na strane 133)

Is Climate Change Ungovernable?
Abstract: This paper reviews the potential for catastrophic, civilization-threatening climate change
within the next 2-3 centuries if climate sensitivity is on the high end of IPCC estimates and the
thresholds of various tipping points are crossed. I argue that empirical evidence supports a
substantial likelihood of future climate policy reversals by major emitters, resulting in continuing
accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. On high-end sensitivity estimates, Paris
Agreement pledges to date are insufficient even if fully implemented. Policy is always reversible,
and major reversals have already occurred. Climate denialism and misdirection can, and probably
will, be amplified by artificial intelligence and social media. Finally, the focus on international
governance mechanisms obscures the many levels of jurisdiction that must be engaged for strong
climate policy to take effect. The paper concludes that while renewable energy progress presents a
hopeful note, chances are high that current structu

Intersections, Reinforcements, Cascades
Proceedings of the 2023 Stanford Existential Risks Conference

https://stacks.stanford.edu/file/druid:pn116pv4512/Intersections%2C%20Reinforcements%2C%20Cascades_Proceedings%20of%20the%202023%20Stanford%20Existential%20Risks%20Conference.pdf#page=133

Trochu obecněji .)

Comparative Climatology of Terrestrial Planets
https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctt183gz90

TADEAS: tady taky jeden:

V Brestu vítr v noci na čtvrtek porazil jeřáb a s rychlostí 156 kilometrů v hodině překonal 36 let starý rekord.

Nejsilněji Ciarán ve Francii zasáhl přímořský departement Finistère, kde podle stanice BFMTV u pobřeží zaznamenali vlnu vysokou jednadvacet metrů. V oblasti bylo předem evakuováno 43 rodin.

TADEAS: rekordíček


Storm Ciarán has set a new record for the lowest mean sea level pressure recorded in England and Wales in November, reports the UK’s Met Office.

The record was set in Plymouth in England, where a value of 953.3 hPa (mb) was measured, and St Athan in Wales, with 958.5 hPa (mb).

The previous records were 959.7 hPa (mb) in England (set in 1916) and 962.7 hPa (mb) in Wales (set in 2010).

https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1720055662888063363?s=19

TADEAS: stromy vždycky padaly

Six people killed, schools closed and hundreds of flights cancelled
Six people have been killed as Storm Ciarán brought chaos to western Europe today, closing schools, shutting down train services and cancelling hundreds of flights, reports Reuters.

A truck driver was killed after a tree fell on him in France and a second death was reported in Le Havre.

Falling trees killed a woman in Madrid and another woman in the Netherlands, while two people – a five-year-old and a 64-year-old from Germany – died in Ghent by falling branches.

In France, 1.2m households were left without electricity and 15 people, including seven firefighters, were injured.

SHEFIK: budou muset zrevidovat svoji papundeklovou vystavbu, presunou se zpatky na hrady :D

Jeste se nakonec z uk bude migrovat do afriky

Storm Ciarán live: hundreds of schools closed in England and transport disrupted; 200km/h winds batter France and cut power supplies | World news | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/nov/02/storm-ciaran-live-latest-updates-uk-weather-europe


J Pecho
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10220502163538958&id=1678732617

Prvá výrazná "atlantická" cyklóna nadchádzajúcej zimnej sezóny a hneď to bude celkom pecka. Cyklóna Cirián zajtra večer zasiahne pobrežie západnej Európy (najviac exponované bude pobrežie Bretane) --- vietor môže v maximách presiahnuť 200 km/h, čo je plus-mínus ekvivalent hurikánu 3. kategórie, SLP v minime podľa modelov klesne na 950 hPa. No čo už. Ten rekordne teplý Atlantik nám zrejme bude v priebehu najbližších mesiacov posielať jednu "parádnu" cyklónu za druhou. Nebudeme ani stíhať prepisovať meteorologické rekordy ... [Zdroj obr.: Severe Weather Europe]

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Incoming Storm Ciarán...

A violent wind storm is brewing in the open waters of the Atlantic right now. Ciarán unfortunately reaches peak intensity upon arrival on European shores with severe weather warnings issued.
This is how Storm Ciarán looks under the jet stream. Textbook. Intensifying rapidly under the left-exit jet region just west of Europe. A true bomb cyclone. The explosive deepening of the surface low should be among the deepest low pressure systems on record for this part of the world. Low centre potentially dropping sub 955 hPa.

The cold plunge across North America yields a very tight horizontal temperature gradient. This tight horizontal temperature gradient plays a crucial role in driving the strong jet stream and the intensification of Storm Ciarán itself. [Zdroj: S. Duncan]