Weather Whiplashing and Jetstream Waviness
https://youtu.be/RS_0GNk_CfE?si=pAEyL8ImmySD5UrI



The Climate Emergency Forum welcomes Dr. Jennifer Francis to discuss two of her recent papers on Weather Whiplashing, which is defined as an abrupt shift from one persistent set of often extreme weather conditions to another.

This video was recorded on February 27th, 2024, and published on March 10th, 2024.

Dr. Francis introduces the concept of weather whiplashing and provides examples like sudden temperature drops and shifts from drought to heavy rain, highlighting the impact of these events on regions like Florida and California. Dr. Francis explains how weather whiplash events are diagnosed by analyzing patterns in the jet stream using self-organizing maps, emphasizing the role of the Arctic's warming in increasing the frequency of these events.

The dialogue delves into the intricate relationship between atmospheric patterns, jet stream dynamics, and weather phenomena. Dr. Francis illustrates how anomalies in the upper-level atmosphere can lead to significant shifts in weather patterns, affecting regions like Florida with freeze events and temperature extremes. She discusses the use of AI tools to analyze atmospheric patterns over time and predict future trends in weather whiplash events, particularly focusing on scenarios where the Arctic's warming plays a crucial role in driving these shifts.

Participants engage in a thought-provoking discussion on the complexities of jet stream behavior, climate factors influencing atmospheric dynamics, and implications for global weather patterns. Questions raised by participants highlight key aspects such as variations in jet stream configurations, heat transfer between equator and poles, and the impact of Arctic warming on jet stream speed and waviness.

Dr. Francis addresses inquiries about ocean currents' correlation with jet stream patterns and explains how subtleties in jet streams affect phenomena like record low transit times for airplanes flying across continents. The dialogue underscores the interdisciplinary nature of climate research and the interconnectedness of various environmental factors shaping our planet's weather systems.


https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022JD036717

Scientists divided over whether record heat is acceleration of climate crisis | Climate science | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2024/mar/16/scientists-divided-record-heat-acceleration-climate-crisis


Heat above the oceans remains persistently, freakishly high, despite a weakening of El Niño, which has been one of the major drivers of record global temperatures over the past year.

Scientists are divided about the extraordinary temperatures of marine air. Some stress that current trends are within climate model projections of how the world will warm as a result of human burning of fossil fuels and forests. Others are perplexed and worried by the speed of change because the seas are the Earth’s great heat moderator and absorb more than 90% of anthropogenic warming.

Earlier this month, the World Meteorological Organization announced that El Niño, a naturally occurring climate pattern associated with the warming of the Pacific Ocean, had peaked and there was an 80% chance of it fading completely between April and June, although its knock-on effects would continue.

The WMO secretary general, Celeste Saulo, said El Niño contributed to making 2023 easily the warmest year on record, although the main culprit was emissions from fossil fuels.

When it came to oceans, she said, the picture was murkier and more disturbing: “The January 2024 sea surface temperature was by far the highest on record for January. This is worrying and can not be explained by El Niño alone.”

Sea surface temperatures in February were also hotter than any month in history, breaking the record set last August, according to Europe’s Copernicus satellite monitoring programme.

Worldwide, the heat above the land and sea was remarkable. Between 8 and 11 February, global temperatures were more than 2C above the 1850-1900 average. Over the month as a whole, Europe experienced heat that was 3.3C above that benchmark.

...

Zeke Hausfather, a scientist at Berkeley Earth in the US, said global sea and surface temperatures were “quite high” but he said they were still well within the projections of climate models: “We don’t have any strong evidence yet from observations that suggests the world is warming faster than anticipated given human emissions.”

YMLADRIS: no ideální příležitost pro nějakýho mengeleho ze švýcarska, aby si zkusil svoje nápady. ovšem výsledky jsou:

This article was updated on February 29 to clarify the United States’ position on key issues at the UNEA talks on solar radiation management and on March 1 to make clear there is a de facto global moratorium in place on geoengineering.

Nations fail to agree on solar geoengineering regulations
https://www.climatechangenews.com/2024/02/29/nations-fail-to-agree-ban-or-research-on-solar-geoengineering-regulations/

YMLADRIS: Jsem zvědavej, kolik neočekávaných problémů se pak objeví. Já se asi nejvíce teď obávám toho, že to bude argument pro další pálení fosilních paliv. Bude to vycházet nejlevněji - alespoň dokud se neprojeví ty neočekávané následky. Pak přibude kromě fosilní lobby i lobby stříkačů sajrajtu to atmosféry. Nedivil bych se, kdyby to byl nakonec stejný kapitál ...

dvě studie

1. že když se aerosol engineering začne až při vysoké globální teplotě, už to nepomůže na ten AMOC problém a celkově oceány, protože vodě trvá dlouho než se přizpůsobí změnám v teplotě vzduchu. Jako že "start soon".

2. dehydratace atmosféry, seeding clouds / změny ve vodní páře vyšly v nové studii jako že by měly jen malý efekt (je to druhá metoda o které se uvažuje)

takže "je to špatný nápad (aerosols injection), ale udělá se to, protože je to nejlevnější. Odclonit antropo přírustek teploty by stálo 30 miliard dolarů ročně, tj částku kterou američani vydávají na žrádlo pro domácí mazlíčky."

We Need to Start Climate Engineering Soon, New Study Says
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MZiEcx0F_CM


PETER_PAN: UN mělo teď setkání v Nairobi na téma climate engineering without reaching any conclusions (research, ban or just do it?).
Jak jsi psal že není pravděpodobné, že by se to povolilo.

PALEONTOLOG: ja jenom rikam, pockejme si jeste 20 let a podom se museze 50 let hadat, jestli Antropocen zacal s objevem parniho stroje anebo az kdyz rupl prah XYZ.
Podle mne, klimaticky v antropocenu jsme. Gologicky potrebujeme jeste masivnejsi efekt.

SEJDA: One emerging argument is that the Anthropocene should be defined as an event in geological history — similar to the rise of atmospheric oxygen just over two billion years ago, known as the Great Oxidation Event — but not as a formal epoch. This would make more sense because geological events unfold as transformations over time, such as humans industrializing and polluting the planet, rather than as an abrupt shift from one state to another, says Erle Ellis, an ecologist at the University of Maryland Baltimore County in Baltimore.