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    ztracené heslo?
    TUHOKlimaticka zmena / Thank you so much for ruining my day
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    SHEFIK: k hranici 2*C dle carbonbrief a IPCC:

    - The 2C threshold will likely be exceeded between 2034 and 2052 in the highest emissions scenario, with a median year of 2043.

    - In a scenario of modest mitigation – where emissions remain close to current levels – the 2C threshold would be exceeded between 2038 and 2072, with a median of 2052.

    ...

    Podle AI standford modelu pak kolem 2060 s 80% pravdepodobnosti

    AI predicts global warming will exceed 1.5 degrees in 2030s | Stanford Report
    https://news.stanford.edu/stories/2023/01/ai-predicts-global-warming-will-exceed-1-5-degrees-2030s
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    DESMOND: tak co se tyka hranice 1,5*C, vypada to podle projekci, ze bude prekrocena (global mean temperature) uz v 2025:

    Dashboard & forecast
    Current levels of warming | Climate Dashboard
    https://climate.metoffice.cloud/current_warming.html

    Coz neznamena, ze to bude trvale (i kdyz imho neni duvod, proc by mela klesat, La nina evidentne uz moc ochlazeni neprinasi a emise rostou)

    Podle WMO je likelihood 80%, ze se tak stane v pristich 5ti letech (opet temporarily)

    Global temperature is likely to exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial level temporarily in next 5 years
    https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/global-temperature-likely-exceed-15degc-above-pre-industrial-level-temporarily-next-5-years
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    DESMOND: vetsina energie se uklada do oceanu, je to nejen carbon sink, ale i heat sink... diky stabilizaci tepla skrze oceany se na planete vubec mohl vytvorit zivot.
    DESMOND
    DESMOND --- ---
    Ještě jsem narazil na nevím jak aktuálního Johana Rockströma https://youtu.be/Vl6VhCAeEfQ?si=0KhcqH1IgdQw535l
    Zde hovoří aktuálně o +1,2°C, ačkoli na grafu z roku 2023 má +1,45°C ???! hovoří dál aktuálně o +1,2°C a o tom, že budget na 1,5 vyčerpáme za 5 až 10 let.
    Odhad +2°C je do roku 2050 a +3°C do roku 2100
    :(( Amazonie už překročila tipping point, emituje víc než ukládá
    Proč se extrémně ohřívají oceány není známo?
    SCHWEPZ
    SCHWEPZ --- ---
    Tak zítra se rozhodne. Doufám že bronzový psychopat a jeho sidekick Elon tohle neuhrají ...

    Trump razí heslo "vrtat, bejby, vrtat".
    Slibuje, že omezí regulaci při těžbě ropy, zemního plynu a uhlí, a slibuje,
    že zpřístupní více federální půdy k produkci fosilních paliv. Argumentuje zejména tím, že sníží náklady.

    Bývalý prezident rovněž říká, že ukončí politiku Bidenovy administrativy,
    která nabízí dotace na podporu takzvané zelené energie.

    Tohle jsou klíčové ekonomické dopady amerických voleb. Největší šok by vyvolala cla - Aktuálně.cz
    https://zpravy.aktualne.cz/zahranici/bloomberg-pet-klicovych-ekonomickych-dopadu-vysledku-prezide/r~b37589889a8911ef80bfac1f6b220ee8/
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    DESMOND: nedavno sem nekdo daval link na dobry overview tipping points, urcite dohledas filtrem. Treba tady na linku dole [CHOSIE @ Klimaticka zmena / Thank you so much for ruining my day], kdyz se proklikas na report za 2023.

    Co se tyka tech 2*C dlouhodobe, zkusim se podivat vecer.
    DESMOND
    DESMOND --- ---
    SHEFIK: typyčo! Tahle zpráva mě minula. Myslel jsem průměrnou roční pochopitelně. ;) K aktuálním tipping points jsem zachytil jen tohle: korálové útesy v háji, permafrost se drží jen díky pokrývce lesů, pokud zařvou ty, máte tady megabombu. Jak na tom jsou další na spadnutí nevím.. Amazonie např?
    PAN_SPRCHA
    PAN_SPRCHA --- ---
    SHEFIK: tak ono by toelo být na nějaké dlouhodobějsi bázi.... ale jo už to brzo bude
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    DESMOND: listopad '23 :)

    ΔT +2.06 °C !!

    This is what uncharted territory looks like.

    The first time that the global temperature anomaly has broken through +2.0 °C, for a single day in observational history.

    Much more to come in the months ahead.

    x.com
    https://x.com/LeonSimons8/status/1726360315716313290?t=MED-t8aUM4MkqB3Euth66Q&s=19
    DESMOND
    DESMOND --- ---
    Prosím, jsou nějaké aktuální odhady: kdy dosáhneme +2°C stávajícím tempem + přehled, jak jsou na tom aktuálně relevantní body zlomu?
    Jsou i oficiální odhady zda už jsme tento rok překročili +1,5°C? Zachytil jsem naposled jen, že se to odhaduje spolu s efektem El nino na jaře příštího roku.
    PER2
    PER2 --- ---
    prší prší.... pocasi, no

    Paiporta, one of the worst affected areas in Valencia is flooded again.
    a Tarragona:
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    ‘Welfare for the rich’: how farm subsidies wrecked Europe’s landscapes | Farming | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/nov/02/farm-subsidies-wrecked-europe-environments-common-agricultural-policy

    the environmental aspects of the CAP changes have not worked. The European court of auditors in 2020 found little evidence of a positive impact on biodiversity from the CAP. The European Environment Agency, in its State of Nature report in 2023, found that the EU’s farmed environment had continued to decline, with the health of only 14% of habitats and about a quarter of non-bird species classed as “good”. The CAP is also making the climate worse: about 80% of the budget goes to support carbon-intensive animal food products, according to a paper published this month in Nature.
    DZODZO
    DZODZO --- ---
    PULNOC: elektromobil ma viac nez polovicne lca emisie nez fosil, nemusi hned prsat, staci ked aspon kvapka

    [DZODZO @ Elektromobily 🏞️ 🛣️ 🏎️ 🚗 🚐 🚙 🚌 🚒 🚛 🔌]
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    PULNOC
    PULNOC --- ---
    Humans: aaaand…we gonna need to mine lithium for the batteries. Like….kinda a lot of lithium.
    Nature:
    PULNOC
    PULNOC --- ---
    Humans: got it. Elektromobil poháněný úhelnou elektrárnou incoming.
    Nature: Considering her choices
    PULNOC
    PULNOC --- ---
    PER2: lol to je paráda. Nature is saying, I’ve swept the garbage up for you, now take it out!!
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Cop16 ends in disarry and indecision despite biodiversity breakthroughs | Cop16 | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/nov/03/cop16-ends-in-disarry-and-indecision-despite-biodiversity-breakthroughs

    Governments failed to reach a consensus on key issues such as nature funding and how this decade’s targets would be monitored. Many were forced to leave the talks early to catch flights, and negotiations were suspended at 8.30am when fewer than half of the countries were present, and the meeting lost quorum. Countries will need to continue the talks next year at an interim meeting in Bangkok.

    A number of countries expressed fury at the way the talks had been dragged out and the order of discussions, which left crucial issues undecided at the final hour.

    ...

    Governments were able to make some significant breakthroughs: they agreed on a global levy on products made using genetic data from nature, potentially creating one of the world’s largest biodiversity conservation funds; and formally incorporated Indigenous communities in the official decision-making of the UN biodiversity process, in what negotiators described as a “watershed moment” for indigenous representation.

    ...

    During the summit, it became clear that many countries were making weak or no progress on crucial aims such as reforming environmentally harmful subsidies, protected areas and even submitting national plans for meeting the targets.

    “We saw insufficient leadership from the wealthier countries, the European Union and France in particular, Canada, Switzerland, Japan, the UK, but also China. The executive secretary of the UN convention on biodiversity was also quite phantomatic,” said Oscar Soria, director of thinktank the Common Initiative.
    XCHAOS
    XCHAOS --- ---
    MiBaWi - Michael Barthel: "Flooded after DANA on October 29 > 'Bonaire' park…" - AI6YR's Mastodon
    https://m.ai6yr.org/@MiBaWi/113414960373564274
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