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    TUHOKlimaticka zmena / Destroying the Future Is the Most Cost-Effective


    "Given the sheer enormity of climate change, it’s okay to be depressed, to grieve. But please, don’t stay there too long. Join me in pure, unadulterated, righteous anger."


    "I don’t want your hope. I don’t want you to be hopeful. ... I want you to act. Once you start to act, the hope is everywhere."

    "Our best scientists tell us insistently that a calamity is unfolding, that the life-support systems of the Earth are being damaged in ways that threaten our survival. Yet in the face of these facts we carry on as usual."

    Rostouci hladiny oceanu, zmena atmosferickeho proudeni, zmeny v distribuci srazek a sucha. Zmeny karbonoveho, fosforoveho a dusikoveho cyklu, okyselovani oceanu. Jake jsou bezpecnostni rizika a jake potencialni klady dramatickych zmen fungovani zemskeho systemu?
    Ale take jak funguji masove dezinformacni kampane ropneho prumyslu a boj o verejne mineni na prahu noveho klimatickeho rezimu post-holocenu.
    rozbalit záhlaví
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    IEA, NO PROGRESS ON COAL CONSUMPTION TO 2030

    International Energy Agency, Coal 2025.

    2030 World coal consumption 55% higher than 2000, and the same as 2020.

    China 2030 projected same as 2020.

    China's big 2020 jump is maintained

    World headed for climatic biospere collapse fast.

    https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/113a8274-500c-4684-951f-947d25bef3c9/Coal2025.pdf

    FB-IMG-1771415699915
    TADEAS
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    The Guardian view on Donald Trump and the climate crisis: the US is in reverse while China ploughs ahead | Editorial | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/feb/15/the-guardian-view-on-donald-trump-and-the-climate-crisis-the-us-is-in-reverse-while-china-ploughs-ahead
    ALMAD
    ALMAD --- ---
    TADEAS
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    SCHWEPZ:

    FULL SPEECH: Merz Pushes Europe to Close Growth Gap with US and China, Urges to Cut Red Tape | AC1N
    https://youtu.be/8-xo6DYar-k?si=WciuqB8aRtLiQOoq
    TADEAS
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    "Climate hushing"—the quiet trend undermining global climate action
    https://www.talkingclimate.ca/p/climate-hushingthe-quiet-trend-undermining?

    As political winds have shifted in the United States and elsewhere over the past year, “climate hushing” has become a real thing: and that’s bad news. “When leaders don’t talk about something, enthusiasm falls among voters,” Senator Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island writes here. “In politics, you can often make your own wind, or you can make your own doldrums.”

    Unfortunately, climate hushing is going global. This year, when world leaders spoke at the World Economic Forum’s meeting in January, nearly every single one of them avoided the topic—even Prime Minister Mark Carney, a former UN Special Envoy for Climate Action and Finance. Why is this? “In today’s deeply polarizing U.S. political stance, climate discussion has come to feel so radioactive that many leaders would rather avoid it,” sustainable business professor Anjali Chaudhry writes.

    The only major leader to break the silence was Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, who used his speech to press for collaborative climate action. ”We invite enterprises from all over the world to embrace the opportunities from the green and low-carbon transition, and work closely with China in such areas as green infrastructure, green energy, green minerals and green finance,” he said.

    The organization We Don’t Have Time hosted an alternative WEF speech, held on a pile of snow and featuring several of my colleagues and leading systems thinkers, including Dr. Johan Rockström, Sandrine Dixson-Declève, and former Unilever CEO Paul Polman, who said,

    “We know what needs to be done [about climate change]. It is not a failure of resources. Global capital has never been more abundant. It is a failure of collaboration and collective action. A failure of governments to align around shared interests rather than narrow advantage; of businesses to act as system-shapers rather than short-term competitors; and of leaders across sectors to share risk, and act in service of a common good.”
    XCHAOS
    XCHAOS --- ---
    JIMIQ: China's coal construction program has been largely replacement, and in doing so improved efficiency. China built new coal capacity in 2025? Sounds, bad. Except China's coal consumption and coal energy generation *DROPPED IN 2025* by 1.6%.
    XCHAOS
    XCHAOS --- ---
    Why Is China Building So Many Coal Plants Despite Its Solar and Wind Boom? - Slashdot
    https://hardware.slashdot.org/story/26/02/08/0233236/why-is-china-building-so-many-coal-plants-despite-its-solar-and-wind-boom
    TADEAS
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    Governments must fix ‘faulty radar’ in economic climate models as storm approaches, scientists warn - Carbon Tracker Initiative
    https://carbontracker.org/governments-must-fix-faulty-radar-in-economic-climate-models-as-storm-approaches-scientists-warn/

    Flawed economic models mean climate crisis could crash global economy, experts warn | Green economy | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/feb/05/flawed-economic-models-mean-climate-crisis-could-crash-global-economy-experts-warn



    This report by the Carbon Tracker Initiative and the University of Exeter makes clear that the economic modeling currently employed by many governments, regulators, and financial managers greatly underestimates the potential impacts of climate change. What this means is that we are speeding towards Armageddon while wearing rose-tinted glasses.

    - - - - - - - - - -

    "Flawed economic models mean the accelerating impact of the climate crisis could lead to a global financial crash, experts warn.

    Recovery would be far harder than after the 2008 financial crash, they said, as “we can’t bail out the Earth like we did the banks”.

    As the world speeds towards 2C of global heating, the risks of extreme weather disasters and climate tipping points are increasing fast. But current economic models used by governments and financial institutions entirely miss such shocks, the researchers said, instead forecasting that steady economic growth will be slowed only by gradually rising average temperatures. This is because the models assume the future will behave like the past, despite the burning of fossil fuels pushing the climate system into uncharted territory.

    Tipping points, such as the collapse of critical Atlantic currents or the Greenland ice sheet, would have global consequences for society. Some are thought to be at, or very close to, their tipping points but the timing is difficult to predict. Combined extreme weather disasters could wipe out national economies, the researchers, from the University of Exeter and financial thinktank Carbon Tracker Initiative, said.

    Their report concludes governments, regulators and financial managers must pay far more attention to these high impact but lower likelihood risks, because avoiding irreversible outcomes by cutting carbon emissions is far cheaper than trying to cope with them.

    “We’re not dealing with manageable economic adjustments,” said Dr Jesse Abrams, at the University of Exeter. “The climate scientists we surveyed were unambiguous: current economic models can’t capture what matters most – the cascading failures and compounding shocks that define climate risk in a warmer world – and could undermine the very foundations of economic growth.”

    “For financial institutions and policymakers, it’s a fundamental misreading of the risks we face,” he said. “We are thinking about something like a 2008 [crash], but one we can’t recover from as well. Once we have ecosystem breakdown or climate breakdown, we can’t bail out the Earth like we did the banks.”

    Mark Campanale, CEO of Carbon Tracker, said: “The net result of flawed economic advice is widespread complacency amongst investors and policymakers. There’s a tendency in certain government departments to trivialise the impacts of climate on the economy so as to avoid making difficult choices today. This is a big problem – the consequences of delay are catastrophic.”

    Hetal Patel, at Phoenix Group, which manages about £300bn of long-term investments for its customers, said: “Underestimating physical risk doesn’t just distort investment decisions, it underplays the real‑world consequences that will ultimately affect society as a whole.”

    Actuaries predicted in 2025 that the global economy could face a 50% loss in GDP between 2070 and 2090 from catastrophic climate shocks, far higher than previously estimated.

    The new report drew on expert judgments from 68 climate scientists from research institutions and government agencies in the UK, US, China and nine other countries. A key finding was that while economic modelling traditionally links climate damages to changes in average temperatures, societies and markets suffer most from extremes, such as heatwaves, floods and droughts.

    Another finding was that GDP can mask the full cost of climate damage by failing to account for deaths and ill health, social disruption and degraded ecosystems. GDP can actually increase after disasters owing to spending on recovery, the researchers added.

    They said that rather than waiting for perfect models of risk, greater emphasis should be placed on extremes, not just central estimates, and on the vulnerability of the entire financial system. Investors should also speed up the move away from fossil fuels as a fiduciary duty to avoid large future losses, said Campanale.

    Current economic models can give estimates of losses that look precise but which the scientists said were wildly optimistic. “Some are saying we’ll have a 10% GDP loss at between 3C and 4C degrees [of global heating], but the physical climate scientists are saying the economy and society will cease to function as we know it. That’s a big mismatch,” Abrams said.

    Laurie Laybourn, at the Strategic Climate Risks Initiative, said: “We are currently living through a paradigm shift in the speed, scale and severity of risks driven by the climate-nature crisis. Yet many regulations and government actions are dangerously out of touch with reality.” - Damian Carrington
    TADEAS
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    TADEAS:




    Europe drove decarbonization of power supply but did not drive electrification. They're on the top left-hand side above the Americans, but not on the top right-hand side where the Chinese are to be found.

    - The Germans and Italians shut down nuclear as an essential part of their politics of green modernization, but they agonizingly extended the protection for the coal sectors.
    - They created a market for power supply through feed-in tariffs, then surrendered that market to the Chinese, and then slapped on protectionism anyway.
    - They introduced the carbon pricing mechanism but took almost fifteen years to make it work. It now does work—carbon prices in Europe are at very significant levels, sometimes above one hundred euros per ton—but they were unprepared for the shock of delivering that particular price signal.
    - Rather than focusing on new energy models, European politics and interest groups converged on the diesel, and the European car industry was milked as a source of dividends for its oligarchic investors. And they now complain about Chinese competition and demand protectionism.
    - The Europeans were clearly at odds with both Russia and the US, and yet did nothing to develop strategic autonomy with regard to either of them.






    On the left-hand side, the ramp-up you see: the formation period of this new synthesis of green governance in Europe through to the maximum level of investment in 2011 at $131 billion. And then you see, in the wake of the Eurozone crisis—which of course dramatically affected southern Europe, where unsurprisingly the investment in solar was particularly dramatic—as that crisis hits under the sign of austerity, the European push collapses. And this is the moment of China's overtaking.
    XCHAOS
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    XCHAOS
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    https://reneweconomy.com.au/coal-power-drops-in-china-and-india-for-first-time-in-52-years-after-wind-and-solar-records/
    The new analysis shows that power generation from coal fell by 1.6% in China and by 3.0% in India in 2025, as non-fossil energy sources grew quickly enough in both countries to cover electricity consumption growth.
    TADEAS
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    XCHAOS:

    the world’s oceans absorbed an additional 23 zettajoules’ worth of heat in 2025, the most in any year since modern measurements began in the 1960s. That’s significantly higher than the 16 additional zettajoules they absorbed in 2024. The research comes from a team of more than 50 scientists across the United States, Europe, and China.
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    TADEAS: aneb naznaky klimatickeho povstani, pro mainstream levicova anarchie.


    We can no longer afford the rich.
    We can initiate the end of the imperial lifestyle.
    We can stop the plundering of the Earth.
    In the greed for energy, the Earth is being drained, sucked dry, burned, abused, razed, raped, and destroyed. Entire regions are rendered uninhabitable by the heat. They simply burn up. Or habitats disappear beneath the waves during floods or due to rising sea levels.
    Shutting down fossil fuel power plants is a task that can be accomplished by hand. Have courage.
    We know we must interrupt this destruction. We know we are not alone. Don't give up hope for a world where life has space, not the greed for money, power, and destruction.

    ...

    Last year, the CO₂ concentration in the atmosphere rose to 423.9 parts per million, a value that surpasses all previous records. At the same time, climate scientists agree that the massive transatlantic ocean currents will collapse sooner or later due to global warming. This collapse of ocean currents, which has so far afforded the North a mild climate, is only one part of the catastrophe that awaits us. The extent of this devastation is simply ignored, abstracted, and discussed at global climate conferences until the scale of the destruction disappears into tables and declarations of intent.
    But the insatiable hunger for energy is eating its way through the Earth's crust and our lives, among other things to feed artificial intelligence, which then spouts stereotypes and absurdities, confusing, disorienting, and/or manipulating us. Meanwhile, with each new "learning" of the AI ​​using previous data, language, expression, and vitality are increasingly reduced, mutilated, and limited.

    ...

    We don't claim to know the way out. But we do know we must stop this destruction. Hedonism can no longer hold us captive once we've tasted the sweat of fear that spreads when there's no way out. No going forward, no going back. Only the horror of where we, as humanity, have ended up. When the question falls back on us, what did you actually do to prevent what was coming? You saw it coming, the survivors, the next generations, ask us. Please don't bring up the political parties. Please don't bring up the brown-shirted alternatives in pinstriped suits and dresses. And not the Greens or the Left either. Don't bring up the economy, whose free market will supposedly solve the problem. Economics and politics deal with death every day. With dictatorships and butchers. Their concerns vanish into thin air when it comes to satisfying our energy needs, for example. Russia is still supplying gas to Europe via Nord Stream 1. And the US wants Venezuela's oil. That's why military attacks are now taking place. And fracked gas arrives by ship from all over the world. Currently, 79% comes from the USA! Fracking is extremely environmentally damaging in its production. Even during extraction, a methane loss of 6 to 10 percent is assumed, which further warms the atmosphere.

    95% of the gas burned in Germany is imported. At climate summits, only tactical lip service is forthcoming because the oil-producing countries are not interested in climate protection but in money. Because the major cities base their policies on money and growth, lobbyists in Europe are being handed the end of the combustion engine phase-out.

    For example, the German Minister of Economic Affairs, Katharina Reiche, was State Secretary in the Federal Ministry of Transport, a lobbyist for the Association of Municipal Enterprises (VKM), and a manager at the E.ON subsidiary Westenergie. Minister Reiche presents herself as a supporter of hydrogen but primarily relies on natural gas. She intends to issue tenders for additional gas-fired power plants with a capacity of 10 gigawatts, which are to be connected to the grid by 2031, corresponding to approximately 25 new power plants. 20 billion euros are earmarked for these new gas-fired power plants.

    Reiche would prefer to postpone Germany's climate neutrality target from 2045 to 2050 anyway.

    The main culprits behind human-induced climate destruction are not those who suffer the most, those who pay with their health and their lives. The people of the Global South are already paying the highest price. The countries of the Global North, and soon China among others, are deciding the fate of everyone. China, as a communist, racist, and patriarchal dictatorship, can use "rare earth elements" to blackmail countries that don't toe the line, gradually weaving countries, cultures, and political systems into the cocoon of this new dictatorial world power. Over 85% of the world's refined "rare earth elements" come from China. And it is the rich who are the problem. It is the super-rich who are setting the world ablaze. In the East, in the West, in the South, and in the North. Sixty percent of the super-rich's investments worldwide go into gas and oil. And around 300 super-rich countries emit more CO₂ than the 110 poorest countries in the world. These criminals know it. They don't care. Their greed for even more wealth and power sets the standard by which everyone else follows
    TADEAS
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    ‘People are wrestling with the burden’: Japan pivots to focus on nuclear power ‘maximisation’ alongside renewables | Fukushima | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/dec/31/japan-pivots-nuclear-power-maximisation-renewables

    The post-Fukushima nuclear closures of dozens of reactors forced the country to rely heavily on imported fossil fuels: last year it was the world’s second-largest importer of liquefied fossil gas after China, and the third-largest importer of coal by volume. But the government’s energy plan envisages a share of between 40% and 50% for renewable energy – compared with just under a third in 2023 – and a reduction in coal-fired power from the current 63% to 30-40%.

    Fukushima plans to become a leader in renewable energy – a shift that would have elicited derision before tsunami waves roared ashore on the afternoon of 11 March 2011, crippling the Daiichi plant’s backup power supply and triggering the world’s worst nuclear accident since Chornobyl a quarter of a century earlier. In its Renewable Energy Promotion Vision, the prefecture, home to 1.7 million people, aims to achieve 100% renewables by 2040, with a midterm target of 70% by 2030.

    “Everyone in the prefecture is determined to reach the target,” said Takayuki Hirano of Fukushima Fukko Furyoku (Fukushima Wind Power Recovery), a joint venture funded by nine companies and led by Sumitomo Corporation. “That’s why there are so many subsidies available for solar, wind and other renewables. I think we’re going to make it happen.
    XCHAOS
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    Akkoma
    https://agora.echelon.pl/notice/B1fhNk6JHuFf51GvYm
    Rare sighting in Russia - grassroots protests in #Irkutsk against mass scale logging on thousands of square kilometers of tayga, including around Baykal lake. The wood is logged legally and illegally (on much larger scale) mostly by China companies who consider Russian Siberia to be practically their property in exchange for keeping Russia on lifeline and allowing it to barely survive the war it started.
    XCHAOS
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    China energy and emissions trends: December 2025 snapshot – Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air
    https://energyandcleanair.org/china-energy-and-emissions-trends-december-2025-snapshot/
    SHEFIK
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    A Massive, Chinese-Backed Port in Peru Could Push the Amazon Rainforest Over the Edge - Inside Climate News
    https://insideclimatenews.org/news/01122025/china-port-in-peru-impact-on-amazon-rainforest/
    CHOSIE
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    https://news.mongabay.com/short-article/2025/12/critical-minerals-dropped-from-final-text-at-cop30/
    “Critical minerals [environmental warning] dropped from final text at COP30…

    “An earlier draft text on the just energy transition included a paragraph recognizing “the social and environmental risks associated with scaling up supply chains for clean energy technologies, including risks arising from the extraction and processing of critical minerals… however, China made it clear that any inclusion of language about minerals governance was a red line…”
    TADEAS
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    China doesn’t want to lead alone on climate policies, senior adviser warns | Cop30 | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/nov/19/china-doesnt-want-to-take-lead-on-climate-policies-alone-senior-adviser-warns

    In an exclusive interview, Wang said theChinese president, Xi Jinping, was committed to the energy transition for the long haul despite resistance from some industrial sectors. He explained that China’s priority in Belém was to help the Brazilian presidency achieve a successful climate conference, and to show the benefits of multilateral decision-making. On Tuesday, the first draft of a possible agreement was published at the Cop30 summit, reviving the hotly contested plan to transition away from fossil fuels.

    China is the planet’s biggest emitter of carbon dioxide from burning of coal, oil and gas, but it is now also a world leader in the production, installation and export of wind turbines, solar panels and electric cars.

    He said China wanted to “speed up and scale up its efforts to provide more global public goods” despite serious geopolitical and economic tensions and unilateral barriers to trade, including tariffs. The country’s emissions have been flat or falling for 18 months.

    He estimated China’s per capita power consumption would continue to grow from 7,000 kilowatt hours in 2024 to “well over 10,000, maybe 12,000” – but there would be a steady move away from fossil fuels to wind and solar, as well as green hydrogen, green ammonia and electric vehicles. Along with a new power grid system, he said the country was in the midst of a “comprehensive green transition of social economic development”.

    As in many countries, Wang suggested there was some resistance to change, but the president had sent a clear signal about the direction of travel. “Even in China, we have a lot of industrial conflict ... but the central government, including President Xi, is very clear to us that we must, in the next five years’ time, speed up the new power system.”

    In the absence of the US, China’s role is even more crucial than usual to the success or failure of Cop30, where the Brazilian president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, has urged his negotiators to lay the foundations for an exit ramp out of the fossil fuel era.
    XCHAOS
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    China's CO2 Emissions Have Been Flat Or Falling For Past 18 Months, Analysis Finds - Slashdot
    https://news.slashdot.org/story/25/11/11/0119210/chinas-co2-emissions-have-been-flat-or-falling-for-past-18-months-analysis-finds
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