Ohledne https://situational-awareness.ai/ a Aschenbrennera: jestli bude AI spotrebovavat 20% elektriny nebo ne neni vubec point tech eseji (ktere mmch doporucuju procist, good read); jeho hlavni point je ten, ze AGI je mozna (ne nevyhnutelna, je tam mnoho nejistot) a ze nikdo moc neresi, jaky dopad to bude mit na bezpectnost, tedy alignment. V tom s nim souhlasim - pokud by se to nahodou opravdu stalo takto brzy (mluvi o '27/'28), tak budeme mit peknej turmoil a klima nas moc zajimat nebude, protoze budeme resit pravdepodobne takovy hospodarskopoliticky prevrat (rozvrat?), jako jsme nikdy nezazili. Jen si predstavte, co by se stalo s high-skilled a high-salary ekonomikou EU ve chvili, kdy si velkou cast mezd bilych limecku vezme US big tech. Zdanime sice mozna roboty, ale to vyjde tak mozna na zebracenky pro programatory, nikoliv na jejich hezke platy v soucasnosti ... [Mozna fakt neni od veci si koupit ty akcie NVidie, i kdyz jsou prepalene ...]

Aschenbrenner je ovsem matematik/ekonom a ne informatik. Myslim, ze nektere veci vidi hodne povrchne a jen prostrednictvim svych regresi a extrapolaci. Jsou to super uvahy, ale i on sam priznava, ze jeho predikce pres nekolik radu a let jsou zatizeny velkymi nejistotami (budeme mit dostatek dat? nevycerpa se fundamentalne nase schopnost je tezit? nenarazime na totalni odpor populace?). Cili stat se to mozna muze, ale mozna taky ne.

Pokud bude AGI, tak to bude znamenat tak velkou revoluci, ze nikdo neni schopny domyslet, co bude dal. Postaveni neandrtalcu v usvitu clouveka moudreho me ale moc nelaka ... Pokud ovsem AGI nebude, ale bude cim dal kvalitnejsi AI (coz je jiste), tak spotreba elektriny poroste tak jako tak. Jestli se to vyplati tim, ze bude o to vice akcelerovan vyzkum OZE/sekvestrace atp nevim (a imho to nevi nikdo).

I když to není klima, znečištění si s extrémním počasím hraje do karet. Není to poprvé co čtu o působení mikroplastů/nanoplastů na rostliny a jejich růst.
Připomíná mi to i jak jsem kdysi zjistil, že se některá syntetická hnojiva obalují v plastu, aby se do půdy uvolnily pomaleji.

Study: Microplastics found in Agriculture Clog Soil Pores, Prevent Aeration, and Cause Plant Roots to Die | by HR NEWS | Age of Awareness | May, 2024 | Medium
https://medium.com/age-of-awareness/study-microplastics-found-in-agriculture-clog-soil-pores-prevent-aeration-and-kill-plant-roots-a019914acccd

As Beijing swelters, activists hope the heat will prompt climate action | China | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/30/as-beijing-swelters-activists-hope-the-heat-will-prompt-climate-action

although there is some limited education about climate change, permitted discourse stops short of talking about major policy shifts, such as reducing China’s coal emissions more rapidly. The government has pledged to become carbon neutral by 2060, but concerns about energy security and the need for economic growth mean that local authorities are showing no sign of backing down on building new coal power.

Also, says Zhao, “even if people link heatwaves and climate change, they don’t think it’s something that the individual should pay attention to.” Most people see it as being the government’s responsibility – and therefore out of the hands of the public, she says.

Still, awareness of climate change, and discussion about how it can be managed, is ticking up. The topic is increasingly discussed in state media. Analysis by Sixth Tone, a state-backed outlet, found that mentions of key words relating to climate change jumped from about 750,000 in 2019 to nearly 3.3m in 2021.

Surveys suggest that, compared with the US, a slightly higher proportion of Chinese people accept that climate change is happening and that it is caused by human activity.

Experience exceeds awareness of anthropogenic climate change in Greenland | Nature Climate Change
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01701-9

Greenlanders are more likely than residents of top oil-producing Arctic countries to perceive that climate change is happening and about twice as likely to have personally experienced its effects. However, half are unaware that climate change is human-caused and those who are most affected appear to be least aware

TUHO: + neco aktualnejsiho

- Heymann, Matthias, Gramelsberger, Gabriele and Mahony, Martin. (eds.) (2017). Cultures of Prediction in Atmospheric and Climate Science: Epistemic and Cultural Shifts in Computer-based Modelling and Simulation (Routledge Environmental Humanities). London: Routledge/Francis & Taylor.
- Gramelsberger, Gabriele, Lenhard, Johannes and Parker, Wendy (2020). Philosophical Perspectives on Earth System Modeling: Truth, Adequacy and Understanding. In: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems 12(1). DOI: e2019MS001720.
- Gramelsberger, Gabriele (2018). Climate and Simulation. In: Oxford Research Encyclopdia Climate Science. DOI: 10.1093/acrefore/9780190228620.013.52.
- Gramelsberger, Gabriele (2015). Symbol Systems as Cognitive and Performative Hybrids: A Reply to Axel Gelfert. In: Social Epistemology Review and Reply Collective 4(8), 89-94.
- Mahony, Martin, Heymann, Matthias and Gramelsberger, Gabriele (2019). Cultures of prediction in climate science. In: Feola, Giuseppe et al. (eds.): Climate and Culture, 29-38. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
- Gramelsberger, Gabriele (2017). Calculating the weather – Emerging cultures of prediction in late 19th- and early 20th-century Europe. In: Matthias Heymann, Gabriele Gramelsberger, Martin Mahony (eds.): Cultures of Prediction in Atmospheric and Climate Science, 45-67. London: Routledge/Francis & Taylor.
- Gramelsberger, Gabriele (2017). Mathematical Images of Planet Earth. In: Nitzke, Solvejg and Pethes, Nicolas. (eds.): Imaging Earth. Concepts of Wholeness in Cultural Constructions of Our Home Planet, 23-44. Bielefeld: Transcript.

A trochu obecnejs k AI, modelum, komputacim etc.

- Gramelsberger, Gabriele (2020). Affective Computing. In: Hessler, Martina and Liggeri, Kevin. (eds): Handbuch für Technikanthropologie, 445-452. Baden-Baden: Nomos/Edition Sigma.
- Gramelsberger, Gabriele (2020). Algorithm Awareness. Towards a Philosophy of Artifactuality. In: Bösel, Bernd and Wiemer, Serjoscha. (eds.): Affective Media and Policy, 41-49. Lüneburg: Meson Press.
- Gramelsberger, Gabriele (2020). Augmenting Human Intellect. In: Thomas, Paul and Dewes, Tobias (eds.): Vergangenheit analysieren - Zukunft gestalten (Aachener Studien zur Wirtschafts-, Sozial- und Technikgeschichte 20), 51-64. Düren: Shaker Verlag.
- Gramelsberger, Gabriele (2013). Simulation and Systems Understanding. In: Andersen, Hanne, Dieks, Dennis, Gonzalez, Wenceslao J. et al. (eds.): New Challenges to Philosophy of Science The Philosophy of Science in a European Perspective, vol. 4, 151-161. Dordrecht: Springer.
- Gramelsberger, Gabriele and Mansnerus, Erika (2012). The inner world of models and its epistemic diversity. The cases of infectious disease and climate modelling. In: Bissell, Chris and Dillon, Chris. (eds.): Ways of Thinking, Ways of Seeing. Mathematical and Other Modelling in Engineering and Technology, 167-195. Dordrecht: Springer.
- Gramelsberger, Gabriele (2011). From Computation with Experiments to Experiments on Computation. In: Gramelsberger, Gabriele. (ed.): From Science to Computational Sciences, 131-142. Zürich, Berlin: diaphanes.

Climate Honesty – are we ‘beyond catastrophe’? – Professor Jem Bendell
https://jembendell.com/2022/11/06/climate-honesty-are-we-beyond-catastrophe/

David Wallace Wells, in the New York Times, in Beyond Catastrophe, argues that whereas the bad news is that climate impacts are worse than anticipated and we are heading for a disrupted future, the good news is that both action on climate change and some recalculations mean that the future looks less apocalyptic. I wondered if there was new evidence for this recalibrating of expectations, so I looked at the evidence he uses. Aside from the heartening data and expert opinions he shares on how climate awareness and action has been growing, just three scientific sources are offered for the view that humanity is already acting on climate enough to offer some hope of avoiding catastrophe. In this article I will look at those sources, and compare them with other authoritative analysis, to show that such claims for renewed hope are, sadly, insubstantial. Instead, reframing our situation to offer an emotional escape from the dire reality could be counter-productive, by giving people an excuse for remaining in service of the current systems that are destroying life on Earth. Instead, a more realistic understanding of the tragedy that humanity faces is already producing forms of reassessment and radicalisation that offer a basis for resilient social action in pursuit of lesser dystopias.

The 7 Stages of Climate Awareness | Frankly #10
https://youtu.be/pDi82plBOh4


Happyend se nekoná.
Překvapivě.
Asi je třeba dospět.
Netoliko.

forced energy awareness (levna energie nas rozmazlila)

sdili znamej z anglie

“The public should be terrified by these findings, (Tierra) Curry told me. … “It has to become part of daily conversation & awareness, and it’s not right now.”

‘Apocalypse Papers’: Scientists Call for Paradigm Shift as Biodiversity Loss Worsens - Inside Climate News
https://insideclimatenews.org/todaysclimate/apocalypse-papers-scientists-call-for-paradigm-shift-as-biodiversity-loss-worsens/

TO WHICH WE BELONG // TRAILER
https://youtube.com/watch?v=scthtxZUI2c&feature=emb_title


Years of industrialized agriculture have brought the world to the brink of climate disaster. TO WHICH WE BELONG follows a new generation of farmers and ranchers who seek to rebuild their businesses and their planet by embracing the interconnectedness of living things.

On land long depleted by monocultured crops, Trey Hill fills the fields with colorful tangles of plant life, revivifying the soil and bringing new richness to the harvest. In Chihuahua, Mexico ranchers like Alejandro Carrillo practice revolutionary techniques in cattle herding, carving out space for wildlife to thrive again. And off the coast of Connecticut, Bren Smith re-seeds the ocean with kelp, mussels, oysters, and scallops, restoring ecosystems ravaged by commercial fishing.

Despite their difference in culture and location, these farmers and ranchers are rooted in the same belief: that to work with nature, not against it, is the answer.

Science is showing that if we draw down enough carbon from the sky back into the soil through regenerative agricultural practices, we can actually reverse climate change bringing carbon dioxide down to pre-industrial revolution levels.

So, now it’s our turn: to bring awareness and support to the ranchers and farmers doing the work to renew the earth through these simple, yet profound practices.

Myles Byrne
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1476515676168851461.html

To all who have panned Adam McKay's #DontLookUp, i have another set of metaphors for you:

The wreck of the Estonia in Sept. 1994:

William Langewiesche: The Sinking of the Estonia - The Atlantic
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2004/05/a-sea-story/302940/

'Survival that night was a very tight race, & savagely simple. People who started early & moved fast had some chance of winning. People who started late or hesitated for any reason had no chance at all. Action paid. Contemplation did not. The mere act of getting dressed was enough to condemn people to death, & although many of those who escaped to the water succumbed to the cold, most of the ultimate winners endured the ordeal completely naked or in their underwear. The survivors all seem to have grasped the nature of this race, the first stage of which involved getting outside to the Deck 7 promenade without delay. There was no God to turn to for mercy. There was no government to provide order. Civilization was ancient history, Europe a faint and faraway place. Inside the ship, as the heel increased, even the most primitive social organization, the human chain, crumbled apart. Love only slowed people down. A pitiless clock was running. The ocean was completely in control. Oddly enough, the relative distance that people had to travel seems to have made little difference.'

To all who praised #DontLookUp but called it 'the first great climate change film': Don't Look Up is great, but as many such as @neiltyson have said, it's a documentary, not a film. First Reformed, She Dies Tomorrow, and Silent Running are all great films.

To all who have criticised Adam McKay for posting 'wrong answers' to climate change: 'Remember after watching #DontLookUp that WE HAVE THE SCIENCE TO SOLVE THE CLIMATE CRISIS. Renewables, carbon removal and capture. It just needs to be scaled up & developed. We are missing AWARENESS, WILL AND ACTION. Without those three things we are in SERIOUS trouble' .. it's hopeful that you see that the 'approved' answers are unworkable.


But there are two further realisations i see very few of you making:

1. Only a few researchers have consistently and rigorously pointed out that we have no workable solutions. The degrowth needed seems impossible without collapse. We'll have to sit in the fire for awhile longer and see how collapse changes the landscape before we can move en masse. The way through can only be emergent, and cannot be prestated. [More here: https://neuroplastic.github.io/climate_social_contract_2020.html ]

2. Adam McKay et al. get something powerfully right, that most climate researchers get wrong: climate change at this scale is not a civilisation-ending event, it is a world-ending event. We do not in fact face 'climate change', but the Gaian Bottleneck: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26789354/
On the other side of the bottleneck, the Earth fails as a life-bearing planet. Unless .. How we respond is the key, not to our own survival, but to the survival of Earth as a life-bearing planet.

Now, if you want to argue that this is a scientifically unprovable claim, i refer you back to the metaphor of the wreck of the Estonia. My actual unprovable claim is that it was always meant to be this way: humanity was evolved to both trigger and manage the transition of the planetary biome to self-managing homeostasis.

Like #DontLookUp, the sinking of the Estonia is a good metaphor for climate change, with this key difference: Your choices from now forward will not decide whether you survive or die, but simply whether it is possible for you *as a class* to survive.

Here are two questions, your answers to which are closely related: Are you critical of #DontLookUp? Do 1 billion die and 7 billion survive, or do 7 billion die and 1 billion survive, as we traverse the Gaian Bottleneck?

If the answer is 1:7, then rule of law manifests sustainable developmental justice in the form of a world court prosecuting ecocide. This gives us a chance at surviving, naked or in our underwear. If our answer is 1:7, then maybe 1 billion will make it into the 23rd century.

If our answer is 7:1, then effectively none of us survive, and the Earth dies.

Happy 2022!

#awareness #responsibility

Google Flights now lets you see estimated carbon emissions for planned trips - 9to5Google
https://9to5google.com/2021/10/06/google-flights-now-lets-you-see-estimated-carbon-emissions-for-planned-trips/