ZAHRADKAR: tak dokud TUHO nevadi off topic tak killing time na nyxu je jiste lepsi nez destruction derby, tak jeste odpovim

AI - ja si od toho slibuju hodne. Asi uz neodvratny bude software abundance (sw inzenyr bude pracovat jako by mel k ruce dvacet juniornich developeru). vedec plus inzenyr muze byt dobre kombo.
uz toho by mohlo prohledat a vypocitat urcite veci.

breakthrough objevy. mame data, nedokazeme je zpracovat. napriklad tato diskuse - toci se kolem toho, ze stack motivaci u lidi je neprehledny, neni videt jak by mohly prevladnout vic globalni motivace.

ale pritom neni fyzikalne vylouceny :) ze by mohly. priklad: muj syn ma traumaticke zazitky kolem injekcnich jehel. Jeste donedavna pro nej bylo NEMOZNY interagovat s jehlou aniz by mel panickou reakci. Dnes si jehlou rozdloubal kuzi na noze, aby si mohl vytahnout trisku. Ptala jsem se ho, co je ten zasadni faktor v tomto posunu. Rekl ze se nyni citi ve svem zivote tak moc "doma", ze je mozne situaci vyhodnotit rozumem. "Mamo, podarilo se mi dospet k nazoru, ze vydloubat si trisku je MENSI ZLO. presvedcil jsem sam sebe, ze to je MENSI ZLO. furt je mi z toho blbe, ale je to MENSI ZLO."

o dynamice techto procesu toho vime jen malo. Mame hit or miss prostredky jako ze clovek uzije psychedelikum, zmeni mu to priors a najednou jsou pro jeho inteligenci nektere veci nove mozne.

co kdyby AI prinesla objevy na tomto poli - na jakych principech vubec funguje prepracovavani motivaci a jak by se to dalo delat vic dovedne. A lidi by treba najednou nenasilne zacali chapat MENSI ZLO

to mel byt jen jeden priklad. Jako ze od AI ocekavam Vedu 2.0. Pokud se do oboru dal budou sypat miliardy a projde se ten bod, kdy AI evidence-based zpusobem si udela model sebe sama a bude schopna sama sebe zlepsovat.

--

"Zda jsou lide schopni te planetarity, jak o ni hovori Tadeas."

Za me zatim ani nevime, co se tady deje a o co tady jde. System, kterym se "to" rozviji, ma nejakou agency. Jakou? A je to substrate-agnostic, jako ze ok, narazil sem asteroid, takze nahodne to ted pocitaji predevsim opice, ale pozdeji to bude pocitat predevsim silikon, ... co to vubec chce? Shaking fist at entropy? Break on through to the other side = pochopit jak se da hacknout tento vesmir driv nez vyhasnou hvezdy? Nebo neco uplne jinyho?

tak tezko kategoricky tvrdit jak se to s lidma i obecne vyvine

TADEAS: to tak urcite je.

ad nejde zpomalit "je to jen rozhodnuti" = ale lidsti akteri jsou taky je molekuly, ktere se dle fyzikalnich zakonu nekam setrvacne pohybuji. ze by AI spocitala zda to jde zpomalit jsem nemyslela jen vypocitat lepsi baterky na skladovani energie, ale prave jak to udelat, aby mohlo byt rozhodnuti jiny. my v nasi omezenosti nevime, v cem je problem: chybi lidem informace? pribeh? jina nez materialni zabava? jsou problem miliardari? nebo jak to teda je.

ja to beru takhle

- aktualne je techno-reseni hodne zasekly (oproti tomu kdyby se to jelo stylem manhattan project nebo moon landing). Tesla v dubnu publikovala Sustainable Energy for All Earth = nulovy zajem medii, nikoho to nezajima.
https://www.tesla.com/ns_videos/Tesla-Master-Plan-Part-3.pdf Nevim proc to tak je. Proc se nejede ten build build build

Akteri

- vedci = aktualizuji svoje grafy, pisou texty pro nerdy. Nema to dopad.
- aktivisti = chteji ruzny veci podle svych pocitu (zavrit jaderne elektrarny, zavest degrowth, rikat pravdu, prestat jist maso, sazet stromy, zavest uhlikovou dan) Nema to dopad.
- fosilni odpor = hybridni valka, zpochybnovani vseho
- "filantropie" miliardaru = gates a jeho Breakthrough Energy a podobni
- ? degrowth hnuti (asi spis jen takove uvahy)
- politici = hlavne nenastvat volice

potencialni mozne gamechangery

1. AI = ze by se fakt namodelovalo neco, co se da delat, a investori by tomu uverili

2. build projekt = neco jak v 50. letech komunisti presvedcili lidi, ze ma smysl postavit prehrady, zaridit bydleni pro miliony lidi, .. nebo Cina (v 1990 v cine zilo pod hranici internationalni chudoby 750 milionu lidi, ted je to 7 milionu lidi). Jako ze by lidstvo obsadil memplex "ma smysl budovat" (solary, vetrniky, AI, nuklearni energii, nuklearni fuzi, adaptaci krajiny...). Za myho zivota se dely napriklad dnes napro neuveritelne veci jako ze kdyz v obci chybela školka, postavily ji občani v "akci Z", protože proste se verilo ze je to dobra vec. Posun v imaginaci

Co si myslim ze se ve skutecnostii stane: nic

nejaky e/acc (aktivizovat lidi aby misto netflixu pracovali pracovali pracovali akcelerovali) nema sanci prorazit proti tem setrvacnym obrovskym energiim, ktere chteji predevsim status quo. Je to trochu jako feudalismus, kdy panovnik a vrchni slechta drzi nejvetsi profit (korporace, ktere ted maji nejvetsi profit) a udelaji vsechno, aby se ta rovnovaha nemenila. Jedina disruptivni oblast je ta digisfera, ale ta je jakasi nerealna, cely je to spis simulace

Ale tak schweps se ptal jak je to s tou depopulaci, z jakeho pohledu je problem, proc musk tlaci na populaci atd., tak vysvetluju ten civilizacni build. je to to cemu rikas hypercivilizator a ano ma to Moloch vibes. Ale proste vynoruje se to na horizontu jako hnuti lidi, ktere unavuje bezesmyslnost jejich zivotu a preregulovanost (nesmi se nic delat z duvodu preventive precaution). Treba si neco fakt rozjedou, ale nevim, asi ne

Takze budeme cekat, posilat si grafy, a pak US zacne strilet siru do stratosfery aby "zachranilo planetu"

FASTER, HIGHER, HOTTER

What we learned about the climate system in 2022
Beyond all the hype and all the anxiety about climate policymaking, the upbeat newsmaking about energy transitions and the growing dread of civilisational collapse, what have we learned about the climate system in the last year? Here are some key obser-vations drawn from research and data published in 2022.

PAPERS | Breakthrough
https://www.breakthroughonline.org.au/papers

‘I am an optimistic person’: the scientist who studies climate catastrophes | Climate crisis | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/dec/29/i-am-an-optimistic-person-the-scientist-who-studies-climate-catastrophes

“He said to me: ‘Look, we have this large ensemble of climate models here, do something with it.’

“So I was handed this huge gathering of data, and what that allows you to do is build statistics about rare and extreme events.”

Otto was armed with the information which would lead her a few years later, with her late colleague Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, to create the world’s first climate attribution unit to examine to what extent human driven climate change is responsible for extreme heatwaves, droughts and floods.

The journey from the creation of the World Weather Attribution unit to its current iteration, began with a paper Otto and Oldenborgh wrote on a heatwave in Russia in 2010. It was a classical academic paper, peer reviewed and published long after the event.

But when Heidi Cullen, one time chief scientist at the NGO Climate Central, suggested the work would be more powerful if it could be carried out faster, it was a breakthrough moment. “There was no reason we shouldn’t be able to do it faster,” said Otto. “We had the methodology that in principle doesn’t take a huge amount of time technically to run, so we could do it.”

Otto’s conclusions now come at speed, but are still written within the structure of scientific rigour and the available evidence. A great part of the work is communicating to the wider public and politicians the dangers of extreme weather and the message, most crucially, that it is being created by us.

...

. “One of the biggest scientific surprises for me this year was the floods in Nigeria because there was such a huge climate change impact,” said Otto. “They were made 80 times more likely as a result of climate change. That makes me think: ‘Oh wow, there is really a lot that we don’t understand in Africa’.”

#new_tech

:: OSEL.CZ :: - „Opékač cihel“ slibuje rázně omezit emise uhlíku
https://www.osel.cz/12499-opekac-cihel-slibuje-razne-omezit-emise-uhliku.html

O'Donnell si rovněž pochvaluje investice od Breakthrough Ventures Billa Gatese. Je přesvědčen, že technologie založené na jejich opékači cihel mají potenciál během desetiletí omezit emise uhlíku o 1 procento a během 15 let o 15 procent. Jednoduchá technologie ve spolupráci s ekonomickými mechanismy podle něj může přinést ohromující výsledky. Podle komentáře New Atlasu to je jako blitzkrieg v zelené energetice, který veškeré úsilí soustředí na rychlost, výrobu ve velkém a nízkou cenu.

Mark Lynas: Don't Look Up: Is Climate Change an Extinction-Level Event?
https://youtu.be/5Gc3GHDJM9Q


In the movie Don't Look Up, humanity dithers when faced with an extinction-level threat from a comet and is wiped out. Designed explicitly as an analogy for what the moviemakers see as our collective lack of response to the existential risk of climate change, how accurate is this comparison? Mark Lynas, the climate author who has recently released an updated version of his award-winning book Six Degrees, reviews the latest evidence as to whether climate breakdown can be considered a planetary-scale extinction threat and whether human civilisation or even humanity as a species it significantly at risk this century.

Mark Lynas is the author of several books on the environment, including High Tide, Six Degrees, The God Species, Nuclear 2.0 and Seeds of Science. His most recent publication, in June 2020, was ‘Our Final Warning: Six Degrees of Climate Emergency’. This is an entirely new update of the original 2007 Six Degrees which won the prestigious Royal Society science books prize. The original Six Degrees was translated into 22 languages and was also adapted into a documentary broadcast on the National Geographic Channel. He also received the Breakthrough Paradigm Award in 2012.