Revealed: the world’s worst mega-leaks of methane driving global heating | Greenhouse gas emissions | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/mar/17/revealed-world-worst-methane-leaks-global-heating

The world’s worst mega-leaks of the potent greenhouse gas methane in 2025 have been revealed by an analysis of satellite data.

The super-polluting plumes from oil and gas facilities have a colossal heating impact on the climate but often result from poor maintenance and can be simple to fix. The assessment found dozens of mega-leaks, each having the same global heating impact as a coal-fired power station.

The researchers said it was “maddening” that such easy action to fight the climate crisis was not being taken, and said people should be angry. Stopping the leaks can even be free, given that captured gas can be sold – methane is the “natural gas” that fires power stations.

The mega-leaks occur across the world, but the top 25 list, produced by the Stop Methane Project at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), is dominated by facilities in Turkmenistan. The scale of methane leaks in the secretive and authoritarian state has previously been described as “mind-boggling”.

Super-polluting plumes were also seen in the US, the largest detected in 2025 occurring in Texas and leaking 5.5 tonnes of methane per hour, equivalent to running about a million fuel-guzzling SUVs. Venezuela (five) and Iran (three) also had multiple mega-leaks from state-owned facilities.

The Stop Methane Project also analysed super-polluting plumes from landfill sites, where rotting organic waste can release huge volumes of methane when not well managed. The worst sites ranged across the world, from Turkey to Algeria and Malaysia to the US.

but... robots&datacenters

Planetary Solvency – finding our balance with nature
https://actuaries.org.uk/planetary-solvency

The global economy could face a 50% loss in GDP between 2070 and 2090, unless immediate policy action on risks posed by the climate crisis is taken. Populations are already impacted by food system shocks, water insecurity, heat stress and infectious diseases. If unchecked, mass mortality, mass displacement, severe economic contraction and conflict become more likely.

‘Planetary Solvency – finding our balance with nature’ is the IFoA’s fourth report in collaboration with climate scientists. The report develops a framework for global risk management to address these risks and show how this approach can support future prosperity. It also shows how a lack of realistic risk messaging to guide policy decisions has led to slower action than is needed.

The report proposes a novel Planetary Solvency risk dashboard, to provide decision-useful risk information to support policymakers to drive human activity within the finite bounds of the planet that we live on.

je libo být vařenou žábou?

Significant acceleration of global warming since 2015 — Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
https://www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/latest-news/significant-acceleration-of-global-warming-since-2015

It's very remarkable how well climate predictions from decades ago have held up.

Retrospectively comparing future model projections to observations provides a robust test of accuracy.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019GL085378

https://x.com/i/status/2029672781688746433

Humanity heating planet faster than ever before, study finds | Climate crisis | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/mar/06/humanity-heating-planet-faster-than-ever-before-study-finds

global heating accelerated from a steady rate of less than 0.2C per decade between 1970 and 2015 to about 0.35C per decade over the past 10 years. The rate is higher than scientists have seen since they started systematically taking the Earth’s temperature in 1880.

“If the warming rate of the past 10 years continues, it would lead to a long-term exceedance of the 1.5C (2.7F) limit of the Paris agreement before 2030,” said Stefan Rahmstorf, a scientist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and co-author of the study.

Extreme heat in recent years has been pushed higher by natural fluctuations – such as solar cycles, volcanic eruptions, and the weather pattern El Niño – that have led scientists to question whether startling temperature readings are outliers or the result of an increase in global heating.

The researchers applied a noise-reduction method to filter out the estimated effect of nonhuman factors in five major datasets that scientists have compiled to gauge the Earth’s temperature. In each of them, they found an acceleration in global heating emerged in 2013 or 2014.

France experiences 'unprecedented' winter with storms, major floods and record rainfall
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/environment/article/2026/03/05/france-experiences-an-unprecedented-winter-with-a-series-of-storms-major-floods-and-record-rainfall_6751113_114.html

In the words of Christine Berne, a climatologist at Météo-France, February shifted the season into the "unprecedented." With rainfall totals equivalent to twice the seasonal norm, it became the wettest February ever recorded since measurements began in 1959, surpassing 1970. For the entire winter, rainfall was 35% above average, making it the eighth-wettest season since records began. From Brittany to the Atlantic coast and the Mediterranean rim, it rained more than one day out of two, and in some cases, more than two days out of three. "Rainfall was almost daily from January onward," said Berne, with 40 consecutive days of precipitation – a record.

Some cities experienced unprecedented totals: 798 mm in Quimper (northwest) 737 mm in Durban-Corbières (south) and 526 mm in Montpellier (south). While Météo-France described this rainfall as "unusual" – and even "locally historic" – the agency noted that comparable early-year patterns were seen in 1995, 2014 and 2016. The soil moisture index, however, reached a record high since measurements began in 1959.

...

Within a country whose projected temperature will rise by +4°C by 2100, according to the reference trajectory for climate change adaptation, winter precipitation could increase by about 20%. The winter of 2025-2026 already offers a preview of that future.

Global sea levels have been underestimated due to poor modelling, research suggests | Oceans | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/mar/04/global-sea-levels-underestimated-poor-modelling-research

The new calculations reveal that following a relative sea level rise of 1 metre, it is estimated that 37% more coastal areas will fall below sea level, affecting up to 132 million individuals.

“If sea level is higher for your particular island or coastal city than was previously assumed, the impacts from sea level rise will happen sooner than projected before,” said Minderhoud.

Describing the discrepancy as an “interdisciplinary blind spot”, the scientists are concerned that a large proportion of the studies analysed in their research, which they believe are inaccurate, are referenced in the most recent climate change reports published by the IPCC.

Suicide (Paperback) – JUST RELEASED – Revolution in the 21st Century
https://rev21.earth/product/suicide/

From a cell in Wayland Prison, Roger Hallam—farmer, researcher, and co-founder of Just Stop Oil—delivers a searing indictment of a legal system that punishes those who resist, while protecting those who destroy. In July 2024, Hallam was dragged from a British courtroom for refusing to stay silent about the climate crisis. For “conspiracy to cause a public nuisance,” he was sentenced to five years in prison, the harshest punishment for civil disobedience in the UK in modern British history. The case made front-page news and drew global outcry.

Suicide is part memoir, part political reckoning. Drawing on Hallam’s award-winning research and experience representing himself in four Crown Court trials, it lays bare the moral and legal failures of a society sleepwalking into catastrophe. From climate science and the right of necessity, to the collapse of democratic norms and the illusions of secular reason, this is a radical call to rethink justice, truth, and duty in the face of extinction.

Researchers from ETH Zurich have found that two large lakes in the Democratic Republic of Congo — Lakes Mai Ndombe and Tumba — are releasing carbon that’s been locked away in surrounding tropical peatlands for thousands of years.

By analysing dissolved carbon in the lakes, they discovered that roughly 40% of the CO₂ emissions come from peat deposits 2,000–3,500 years old, not just from recent plant material. This shows that tropical peatlands, long considered stable carbon stores, can leak ancient carbon back into the atmosphere.

The study highlights a hidden climate risk: these peatlands could contribute to atmospheric CO₂, especially if disturbed by climate change or land‑use changes, challenging assumptions about how securely carbon is stored in tropical ecosystems.

Published in: Nature Geoscience, February 2026

Millennial-aged peat carbon outgassed by large humic lakes in the Congo Basin | Nature Geoscience
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-026-01924-3

The U.S. Supreme Court has agreed to hear a major case that could reshape how climate accountability lawsuits move forward across the country.

At issue is a lawsuit filed in Colorado that seeks to hold energy companies financially responsible for the local costs of climate change things like wildfire mitigation, infrastructure damage, extreme weather response, and public health impacts. The companies are asking the Court to throw the case out entirely.

The justices’ decision to take up the case is significant. While the Colorado lawsuit is the one directly before them, the ruling will likely determine whether similar cases brought by cities and states nationwide can proceed. Across the country, municipalities have filed lawsuits seeking billions of dollars in damages, arguing that fossil fuel companies misled the public about climate risks while continuing business practices that worsened those risks.

If the Court sides with the energy companies, many of these cases could be dismissed before they ever reach trial. If the Court allows the Colorado case to move forward, it could open the door for more local governments to pursue compensation through the courts.

This isn’t just about one state it’s about whether communities across the United States can use state courts to seek accountability for climate-related costs, or whether those efforts will be shut down at the federal level.

https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1AhZn3nVui/

US supreme court takes up fossil fuel firms’ climate accountability case | US supreme court | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/feb/23/supreme-court-suncor-exxonmobil-case

‘They pushed so many lies about recycling’: the fight to stop big oil pumping billions more into plastics | Plastics | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/feb/19/they-pushed-so-many-lies-about-recycling-the-fight-to-stop-big-oil-pumping-billions-more-into-plastics

In the past 20 years, Gardiner writes, plastic production has doubled, and it will double again, perhaps triple, in the near future. Petrochemicals for plastic are, she says, “expected to be the largest single driver of oil demand in the decades to come. Obviously these oil companies can see what’s coming – they understand that that shift away from fossil fuels is a threat to their business model that has been so profitable for them.” Plastic, she says, “is a way for them to keep drilling and to keep making money. Putting their expertise and muscle into solar or wind power was not the way they wanted to go. It’s not as profitable as selling oil and gas, so they’re all in on the current model, and plastic is a way to perpetuate it. Which is why it is, I guess, even more catastrophic. Because if it’s enabling the industry to keep drilling, to keep selling oil and gas, that is a huge threat to the climate.”

J Pecho
https://www.facebook.com/share/1ARRjYrRdu/

Koncom októbra 2024 zasiahla oblasť Valencie jedna z najničivejších prívalových povodní v moderných dejinách Španielska. Na meteorologickej stanici v meste Turís spadlo za 16 hodín neuveriteľných 771,8 mm zrážok (takmer ročný úhrn), pričom za jedinú hodinu napršalo rekordných 184,6 mm – najvyššia hodinová hodnota zaznamenaná v histórii krajiny. Katastrofa si podľa dostupných zdrojov vyžiadala 230 obetí a spôsobila obrovské materiálne škody.

Nová štúdia publikovaná včera (17.2.2026) v časopise Nature Communications sa pokúsila odpovedať na zásadnú otázku: o koľko bola táto extrémna udalosť zosilnená vplyvom antropogénnej klimatickej zmeny? Autori použili numerický model WRF (verzia 4.5) v kilometrovom rozlíšení a tzv. „storyline“ prístup. To znamená, že simulovali tú istú synoptickú situáciu dvakrát – raz v podmienkach dnešnej už ovplyvnenej klímy a následne v hypotetickej predindustriálnej klíme, približne o 1,08 °C chladnejšej. Nešlo teda o výpočet pravdepodobnosti, ale o porovnanie intenzity toho istého typu búrkového systému v teplejšom a chladnejšom podnebí.

Výsledky sú mimoriadne zaujímavé. Hodinová intenzita zrážok vyšla v dnešných podmienkach približne o 20 % vyššia na každý stupeň oteplenia. To je takmer trojnásobok klasického fyzikálneho odhadu 7 % na °C, vyplývajúceho z Clausius–Clapeyronovho vzťahu. Pri šesťhodinových úhrnoch model ukázal nárast dokonca až o 21 %, plocha územia s extrémnym úhrnom nad 180 mm sa zväčšila o 50 až 55 % a celkový objem zrážok nad povodím rieky Júcar bol vyšší o približne 19 %.

Dôležité je, že zosilnenie nebolo spôsobené iba vyšším obsahom vodnej pary v atmosfére. Model poukázal aj na dynamické a mikrofyziálne zmeny v samotnej búrke: množstvo zrážkovej vody v atmosférickom stĺpci (precipitable water) bolo vyššie o takmer 12 %, maximálna intenzita výstupných prúdov vzrástla o podobnú hodnotu, množstvo krúp (graupelu) v oblaku stúplo o viac než 30 % a efektivita premeny vlhkosti na dážď sa zvýšila o približne 12 %. Inými slovami, teplejšia klíma nielenže „dodala viac paliva“, ale zároveň umožnila silnejšiu a efektívnejšiu konvekciu.

Štatistická významnosť rozdielov bola testovaná na 99 % hladine spoľahlivosti. Autori zároveň upozorňujú, že ide o analýzu jednej konkrétnej udalosti a o podmienené porovnanie – odpoveď na otázku „ako by sa táto búrka správala v chladnejšom svete“, nie „o koľko je dnes pravdepodobnejšia“. Napriek tomu výsledky naznačujú, že krátkodobé extrémne zrážky v Stredomorí môžu rásť rýchlejšie, než by sme očakávali na základe jednoduchých fyzikálnych vzťahov.

Pre prax to má zásadné dôsledky. Ak hodinové lejaky zosilňujú tempom blízkym 20 % na každý stupeň oteplenia, potom návrhové parametre kanalizácií, protipovodňových opatrení či systémov včasného varovania môžu byť výrazne poddimenzované.

Valencia 2024 tak nie je len tragédiou, ale aj jasným signálom, že v teplejšom svete môžu byť extrémne prejavy počasia nielen silnejšie, ale aj iné, než na aké sme boli doteraz zvyknutí.

Zdroj:

Human-induced climate change amplification on storm dynamics in Valencia’s 2024 catastrophic flash flood | Nature Communications
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-026-68929-9

flooded futures of today

France issues red flood alerts after ‘exceptional’ rainfall | France | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/feb/17/red-flood-alerts-storm-nils-exceptional-rainfall

“People who follow climate issues have been warning us for a long time that events like this will happen more often,” she said on Tuesday, the day after visiting the flood-stricken Gironde region, in comments to TV news channel LCI. “In fact, tomorrow has arrived.”

Lucie Chadourne-Facon, director of Vigicrues, France’s flood monitoring service, said the succession of rainy disturbances had been “exceptional” and that soils were so full of water that as little as 20-30mm of rainfall could trigger floods.

“We are dealing with two parallel phenomena,” she told broadcaster BFMTV at the weekend.

“The fact that it is territorially widespread means … all the little rivers that have reacted are flowing into big rivers and everything swells by propagation,” she said. “And at the same time, we’re still getting rain that is reactivating the flooding.”