France: Maize growers said on Tuesday that this year's harvest will be about half of 2025's, roughly 7.3 million tonnes, the lowest since 1976, after drought and heatwaves.

Volcaholic 🌋 on X: "France: Maize growers said on Tuesday that this year's harvest will be about half of 2025's, roughly 7.3 million tonnes, the lowest since 1976, after drought and heatwaves." / X
https://x.com/volcaholic1/status/2112795988062847239

A dalsi uz not so good news

The world may never go back to how it was after this monster El Niño | New Scientist
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2592450-the-world-may-never-go-back-to-how-it-was-after-this-monster-el-nino/

This El Niño is forecast to end around June next year after smashing all records, but its impacts could persist indefinitely in some parts of the world
By Michael Le Page
8 October 2026

The current El Niño is already the strongest on record and is forecast to get even stronger, peaking around November or December. Though it should be over by June next year, the effects of this monster event will continue to be felt long after that.

“I expect that this super El Niño event will drive multiple climate regime shifts like we’ve seen after past super El Niño events,” says hurricane specialist Jeff Masters. “Regime shifts tend to cause considerable trouble – significant disruptions to ecosystems and to the humans that depend on them.”

For instance, this El Niño is expected to lead to a devastating drought in the Amazon that could kill off some of the remaining areas of rainforest. This would release huge quantities of carbon dioxide and also make the whole region permanently drier, because much of the rainfall in rainforests comes from the water evaporating from trees.

The most ambitious ideas to save the world from El Niño
El Niños occur when warm water that has built up in the western Pacific spills east across the equator, making the surface of the eastern Pacific warmer than usual. An El Niño is said to be happening when the sea-surface temperature in one region along the equator is 0.5°C above average; at the time of writing, it is 3.4°C and climbing.

One reason why El Niños end is that the warm water that spreads across the Pacific slowly disperses. Some of it flows away from the equator and the water also cools as it transfers vast amounts of heat to the atmosphere, which leads to a sudden jump in global surface temperatures.

This year’s average temperature is on track to tie with 2024’s at around 1.6°C above the pre-industrial level, and 2027 is expected to reach 1.7°C or more. The next year could be a bit cooler if a La Niña makes the Pacific soak up more heat than usual, but we are on the brink of permanently crossing the 1.5°C threshold we were meant to avoid.

What happens below the surface of the Pacific also plays a key role in bringing about the end of El Niños. For instance, the arrival of warm water in the eastern Pacific triggers gigantic underwater waves known as Rossby waves that travel westwards. When these hit the continental shelf in the western Pacific months later, they bounce back eastwards in the form of cold, faster-moving Kelvin waves. These thin the layer of warm water in the eastern Pacific when they arrive several weeks later, helping deeper, colder water reach the surface and bring the El Niño to an end.

“Many different processes are involved in the onset, maturation and demise of El Niño events,” says Michael McPhaden at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

When will the El Niño end?
The combined forecasts of computer models suggest that this El Niño will be over by June next year, but individual models vary. Some suggest it could persist well into the northern hemisphere’s summer.

We can’t predict with any certainty how this event will end, says McPhaden. The 1997 El Niño ended with a bang, with sea-surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific plummeting by 8°C in a month, followed by a strong, long-lasting La Niña. But the next strong El Niño in 2015 faded gradually and was followed by a weak, short La Niña.

“So, at this point, it is difficult to know precisely how the current El Niño will wind down,” says McPhaden. “Nature loves to confound us with new wrinkles in the epic saga of El Niño, so be prepared for surprises.”

What is certain is that the effects of this event will persist after it ends. Some will be temporary. For instance, the Indian Ocean can become warmer after El Niños – on top of the warming due to global heating – leading to floods in some nearby regions. Some of the worst floods in the Yangtze river occurred in the summer of 1998, after the El Niño that ended in May.

The biggest concern is that the current El Niño could lead to changes that last decades or more. Last year, Jong-Seong Kug at Seoul National University in South Korea and his colleagues published a study showing that the combination of extreme El Niños and global warming can produce climate regime shifts.

After the 2015 super El Niño, there was a sudden increase in sea-surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico that has persisted ever since. The El Niño wasn’t the only factor involved, says Kug, but it contributed to this jump.

The even-stronger El Niño now under way is more likely to trigger such shifts. “We are experiencing a very strong El Niño event,” says Kug. “Based on our study, such an extreme event could substantially increase the likelihood that various components of the Earth system are pushed toward, or even across, regime-shift thresholds.”

In other words, in some parts of the world, the climate will never go back to how it was. “Our civilisation is adapted to the climate of the 20th century, and it is costly and disruptive to be forced to deal with sudden climate regime shifts,” says Masters.

From the agricultural sector to high schools, France is at its wit's end.
https://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2026/10/11/du-monde-agricole-aux-lycees-la-france-a-bout-de-nerfs_6791233_823448.html

Hit by drought, which has ravaged crops, but also by rising hydrocarbon prices that are driving up the cost of fuel and fertilizers, many farms are threatened.

The National Federation of Farmers' Unions (FNSEA), the main farmers' union, estimates losses at €10 billion. According to Bertrand Venteau, president of the Rural Coordination, "We're seeing losses of 30% across all models, and up to 70% for some ." The Ministry of Agriculture estimates that 30,000 farms are "in urgent need of substantial aid . " "The very survival of French agriculture is at stake ," warns Arnaud Rousseau, president of the FNSEA. On Thursday, October 8, the government announced zero-interest cash loans in addition to releasing more than 10 million barrels of oil onto the market. But these measures will not be enough to save those already facing bankruptcy.

neda se nic delat

Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit | UK arable farmers lose billions…
https://eciu.net/media/press-releases/uk-arable-farmers-lose-billions-after-three-years-of-devastating-harvests

Three poor harvests in a row after unprecedented extreme weather are set to cost farmers billions of pounds in lost revenue, according to new analysis from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) [1]. Compared to the 2014-2023 ten-year average, the shortfall in production of wheat, barley, oats and oilseed rape in 2024, 2025 and the estimated shortfall in 2026 is 14.4m tonnes. This is estimated to have cost farmers £4.8 billion in lost revenue when these years and the historical average are both adjusted for inflation.

This summer’s extreme heat and drought are projected to have led to the worst harvest on record [2], after wheat and spring barley yields were hit by the lack of moisture and high temperatures. The Met Office project that 2026 will be the hottest summer on record [3], talking the place of 2025 [4], which together with drought similarly affected the yields of last year’s harvest. The harvest in 2024 was hit by the winter washout of that year [5], as a wet autumn in 2023 and winter and spring in 2024 hit both crop areas and yields [6]. Several scientific studies have attributed the severity of these extreme weather events to climate change [7].

What’s the Government’s plan? Its own National Security Assessment warns that: “Global ecosystem degradation and collapse threaten UK national security and prosperity.” It says every critical ecosy...
https://www.facebook.com/share/v/19nrwQp2Pt/

What’s the Government’s plan?

Its own National Security Assessment warns that:

“Global ecosystem degradation and collapse threaten UK national security and prosperity.”

It says every critical ecosystem is on a pathway to collapse and warns of serious threats from biodiversity loss, food and water insecurity, flooding, drought, extreme heat, displacement and geopolitical instability.

But the assessment released to the public is redacted.

Today we’re taking Love & Rage to the streets of London.

We’re demanding:
• The full, unredacted National Security Assessment
• A UK-wide briefing on the climate and nature risks facing us
• A plan to address the threats the Government’s own assessment identifies

At the heart of today’s procession is a Cacerolazo — hundreds of people banging pots and pans, demanding that the climate and nature crisis can no longer be ignored.

And leading the procession is Le Crucible, our giant simmering casserole.

Because we’re all in the same soup and it’s coming to the boil.

❤️ Love for the Earth and for life itself.
🔥 Rage at continued denial and delay.

Tell the Truth. Act Now. What’s the Plan?

Read the National Security Assessment:

Nature security assessment on global biodiversity loss, ecosystem collapse and national security - GOV.UK
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/nature-security-assessment-on-global-biodiversity-loss-ecosystem-collapse-and-national-security

More about Love & Rage:

Love & rage - Extinction Rebellion UK
https://extinctionrebellion.uk/love-and-rage/

Lake Powell, the second-largest reservoir in the United States, provides water and electricity to millions in the West. It has now shrunk to its lowest level on record, in the latest sign of the alarming crisis unfolding on the drought-stricken Colorado River.

‘Uncharted territory’: Second-largest reservoir in US plunges to a record low
https://cnn.it/4xIeW9a

45 million people now living in drought - and there's no rain in sight
https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/45-million-drought-no-rain-sight-4697190

Around 45 million people – three-quarters of England – are now living in drought conditions after the country recorded its driest July since records began in 1836.

The National Drought Group said all areas of England were facing water shortages – with farming, and the environment particularly impacted. Hose pipe bans are now affecting 27 million people and some regions are now facing bans on washing cars, watering outdoor plants on commercial premises, and filling public swimming pools.

And the group, made up of water companies, the Environment Agency, the Met Office and government, warned that conditions will get worse following a dry start to August.”

TADEAS:

The worst most widespread drought conditions in Europe now are in countries where it is quite unusual: Romania, Hungary, France, and England. Parts of Spain are the driest in 1,000 years. Italy, Germany, and the Netherlands are also hard hit.

The worst harvest on record. Farmers questioning whether it's worth planting next year. And even Jeremy Clarkson says the sums aren't adding up.

The harvest crisis unfolding across Britain is becoming impossible to ignore.

After months of drought and extreme weather, farmers are reporting some of the poorest cereal, oilseed and potato crops in decades, with industry estimates suggesting this year's harvest could be the smallest since records began.

Among those sounding the alarm is Jeremy Clarkson, who says he can spend 15 to 20 hours a day harvesting and still struggle to make the numbers work.

But beyond the Clarkson headlines lies a much bigger story.

Farmers across England are warning about collapsing yields, poor-quality grain, rising costs and growing concerns over food security. Some are even questioning whether planting certain crops this autumn makes financial sense.

As Ireland copes with its own weather challenges, the UK experience offers a stark reminder of how quickly drought can transform a harvest and reshape thinking about farming, water security and food production.

Could Ireland face similar problems if extreme weather becomes more common?

And for tillage farmers, how has this year's harvest compared with your expectations back in the spring?

https://www.independent.ie/farming/uk-farmers-face-worst-harvest-on-record/a/159625904.html

"We can now expect everything from yellow and orange air and failed crops to buckling railways and the forced shutdowns of nuclear plants due to low water."

"Water bombers, the air cavalry of wildfire fighting, buzz the treetops like air show stunt pilots as they save the day with surgical drops of water or orange retardant.

But what happens when those drops have no effect? When, as a pilot working the massive Gironde Fire just west of Bordeaux, France, described
( https://zeit.de/wissenschaft/2026-07/cap-ferret-frankreich-waldbrand-tourismus-urlaub ) it:

“The environment above the fire is so hot that my payload of 10,000 liters of water evaporates in the air.”? Mathieu Jomain, a commander and 26-year veteran in Gironde’s fire service, compared the fire’s intensity to “a meteorological nuclear bomb.”

"This is the new reality of wildfires in the 21st Century: they hit different. And, too often now, the water doesn’t hit at all.
From America to Algeria, dangerous blazes are occurring around the world, giving us a glimpse into an age ablaze We should all be asking the question: What will this age entail?


"Fire phenonemon"

We are witnessing, live and in person, a terrible convergence of prolonged drought and record-breaking temperatures across the Northern Hemisphere. It is a convergence expressed most emphatically by unfightable fires racing across tinder-dry landscapes, fanned by high winds that are, increasingly, generated by the fires themselves. Just as warm waters fuel hurricanes, hot landscapes alive with roaring fire energize a wildfire’s chimney-like central column by burning all available fuel—grassland, forests, and neighborhoods alike—with explosive speed, and irrepressible ferocity that can produce flames higher than a thirty-story building and radiant heat approaching 1,000 °C"

Price of olive oil expected to rise again as European crops feel the heat | Food & drink industry | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/aug/04/price-olive-oil-expected-rise-again-european-crops-heat-drought-wildfires

The European Union has cut harvest predictions on a whole menu of crops with expectations for sunflowers, essential for cooking oils, down by 7%. Meanwhile, grain maize is down 6% on the previous forecast and expectations for potatoes and soya beans have been trimmed by 3%.

However, some countries have been less badly hit than others with Romania, for example, seeing more rainfall and Italy’s wheat crop proving resilient.

The ASAJA agricultural trade body said direct damage from fire had hit orchards, vineyards, agricultural land and greenhouses – affecting citrus fruits, avocados, almonds, vineyards, vegetables and olive groves – while water stress and extreme temperatures had hit production of tomatoes and maize.

“While local production losses may reduce export volumes for some products,” a spokesperson said, the main concern was “higher production costs” rather than restrictions on international trade.

direct damage from fire had hit orchards, vineyards, agricultural land and greenhouses – affecting citrus fruits, avocados, almonds, vineyards, vegetables and olive groves – while water stress and extreme temperatures had hit production of tomatoes and maize.

“While local production losses may reduce export volumes for some products,” a spokesperson said, the main concern was “higher production costs” rather than restrictions on international trade.

Olive oil producers said they expected another surge in prices this year as growers struggled with a combination of extreme heat, drought and, in some cases, fires.

The Netherlands is officially in a water shortage

The Dutch infrastructure ministry has moved up its assessment of the country’s water supply to “actual water shortage” due to the high temperatures and lack of rain.

“Due to persistent drought, less water is entering our country via rain and rivers, while the demand for water is rising,” the Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management said in a statement on Thursday.

Since early July, there has been a Level 1 or “impending water shortage” but now the level has been upgraded to a Level 2 or “actual water shortage.”

The Netherlands is officially in a water shortage - DutchNews.nl
https://www.dutchnews.nl/2026/07/the-netherlands-is-officially-in-a-water-shortage/

J Scheve
https://www.facebook.com/share/1D4kxTHmbB/


Latest U.S. Climate Prediction Center CFSv2 Forecast Ensemble Mean Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly (SSTA) for the date in the ENSO 3.4 region of the central/ eastern equatorial Pacific for November is + 4.0 degrees C (+ 7.2 degrees F) (first Image). This would be + 1.4 degrees C (+ 2.5 degrees F) higher than ever recorded.

We are likely going to have catastrophic weather impacts in many areas of the world including record flooding, record heat, and record drought. Crop failures in many regions will likely be the worst on record.

Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies for the date in the Southern Hemisphere as a whole will break records by a large magin by January while Northern Hemisphere anomalies remain high (last frame of second image) and I think the global average 2 meter height air temperature increase will be much larger than predicted up till now. It could reach + 0.5 degrees C (+ 1 degree F) or more. This is catastrophic for climate because it means feedbacks will accelerate massively.

We are sailing deep into uncharted waters.