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    TUHOKlimaticka zmena / Destroying the Future Is the Most Cost-Effective


    "Given the sheer enormity of climate change, it’s okay to be depressed, to grieve. But please, don’t stay there too long. Join me in pure, unadulterated, righteous anger."


    "I don’t want your hope. I don’t want you to be hopeful. I want you to panic. I want you to feel the fear I feel every day. And then I want you to act. Once you start to act, the hope is everywhere."

    "Our best scientists tell us insistently that a calamity is unfolding, that the life-support systems of the Earth are being damaged in ways that threaten our survival. Yet in the face of these facts we carry on as usual."

    “We’ve got to stop burning fossil fuels. So many aspects of life depend on fossil fuels, except for music and love and education and happiness. These things, which hardly use fossil fuels, are what we must focus on.”

    A nejde o to, že na to nemáme dostatečné technologie, ty by na řešení použít šly, ale chybí nám vůle a představivost je využít. Zůstáváme při zemi, přemýšlíme až moc rezervovaně. Technologický pokrok to sám o sobě nevyřeší. Problém jsme my, ne technologické nástroje.

    Rostouci hladiny oceanu, zmena atmosferickeho proudeni, zmeny v distribuci srazek a sucha. Zmeny karbonoveho, fosforoveho a dusikoveho cyklu, okyselovani oceanu. Jake jsou bezpecnostni rizika a jake potencialni klady dramatickych zmen fungovani zemskeho systemu?
    Ale take jak funguji masove dezinformacni kampane ropneho prumyslu a boj o verejne mineni na prahu noveho klimatickeho rezimu post-holocenu.
    rozbalit záhlaví
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Donald Trump says residents of Greenland want to be part of US | Donald Trump | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jan/26/donald-trump-residents-greenland-us

    Strategically located between the US and Europe, Greenland is a potential geopolitical battleground, as the climate crisis worsens.

    The rapid melting of the island’s huge ice sheets and glaciers has raised interest in oil drilling (although Greenland in 2021 stopped granting exploration licences) and mining for essential minerals including copper, lithium, cobalt and nickel.

    Melting Arctic ice is also opening up new shipping routes, making alternatives to the Suez canal, while the Panama canal is seeing less traffic as a result of severe drought.

    Since the cold war, Greenland is also home to a US military base and its ballistic missile early warning system.
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    After catastrophic floods engulfed Valencia last month, killing more than 200 people, it might seem counterintuitive to think about water shortages. But as the torrents of filthy water swept through towns and villages, people were left without electricity, food supplies – and drinking water. “It was brutal: cars, chunks of machinery, big stones, even dead bodies were swept along in the water. It gushed into the ground floor of buildings, into little shops, bakeries, hairdressers, the English school, bars: all were destroyed. This was climate change for real, climate change in capital letters,” says Josep de la Rubia of Valencia’s Ecologists in Action, describing the scene in the satellite towns south of the Valencian capital.

    In the aftermath, hundreds of thousands of people were reliant on emergency tankers of water or donations of bottled water from citizen volunteers. Within a fortnight, the authorities had reconnected the tap water of 90% of the 850,000 people in affected areas, but all were advised to boil it before drinking it or to use bottled water. Across the region, 100 sewage treatment plants were damaged; in some areas, human waste seeped into flood waters, dead animals were swept into rivers and sodden rubbish and debris piled up. Valencia is on the brink of a sanitation crisis.

    ‘It’s not drought - it’s looting’: the Spanish villages where people are forced to buy back their own drinking water | Water | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2024/nov/23/spanish-villages-people-forced-to-buy-back-own-drinking-water-drought-flood
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    Zambia Weighs $900 Million Coal-Power Plan as Drought Hits Hydro - Bloomberg
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-22/zambia-weighs-900-million-coal-power-plan-as-drought-hits-hydro

    Zambia is considering plans by a Chinese-owned company to build a $900 million coal-fired power plant, as it battles unprecedented electricity shortages caused by a record drought.

    The worst regional dry spell in more than a century has stricken hydro-electricity generation that accounts for 85% of Zambia’s supply, with households and businesses enduring outages lasting more than a day at a time. Copper producers including First Quantum Minerals Ltd. have had to import costly power to maintain output levels.
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    SHEFIK: Pekny, ze prsi na Sahare. Ale zapomnel si jeste na tohle:

    Southern Africa is grappling with an unprecedented drought triggered by El Niño, a recurring climate phenomenon known for its capacity to exacerbate either dry or stormy weather patterns.

    Prolonged dry spells at critical moments of the 2023/2024 planting season resulted in widespread crop failure and livestock losses, in a region where 70 percent of the population relies on agriculture. While the current El Niño cycle has come to an end, the consequences will be felt for months to come, with the hunger crisis likely to worsen and persist until the next harvest season (April/May 2025)

    Five countries in the region have already declared national drought disasters: Lesotho, Malawi, Namibia, Zambia and Zimbabwe. Mozambique and Angola are also severely affected.


    Southern Africa Drought | World Food Programme
    https://www.wfp.org/emergencies/southern-africa-drought
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    urgent collective response

    ‘The Earth is crying out for help’: as fires decimate South America, smoke shrouds its skies | Amazon rainforest | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2024/oct/02/south-america-wildfire-smoke-deforestation-drought
    SCHWEPZ
    SCHWEPZ --- ---
    They’re eating the dogs. They’re eating the cats. They’re eating the pets of the people that live there !!

    Úřady v Zimbabwe plánují dát utratit 200 slonů a jejich masem nakrmit
    občany hladovějící kvůli nejhoršímu suchu za poslední čtyři desetiletí.
    Minulý měsíc již podobné opatření oznámila sousední Namibie.
    Celkem sucha na jihu Afriky zasáhla až 68 milionů lidí.

    Zimbabwe orders cull of 200 elephants amid food shortages from drought | Zimbabwe | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/sep/14/zimbabwe-orders-cull-of-200-elephants-amid-food-shortages-from-drought

    Zimbabwe to cull 200 elephants for food amid drought | REUTERS
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hEbyx4cQUZc
    CHOSIE
    CHOSIE --- ---
    K těm přehradám, ono to zní jako řešení, ale občas může způsobit problémy úplně jinde a nelze říct, že by jich dost nebylo.

    Mě spíše jako první napadá stav zemědělství kdy máme obrovské plochy, které takřka nemají schopnost zadržet vodu a do toho v krajině nejsou prvky, které by situaci napomohli.
    A samozřejmě další je to jak jsou toky samotných řek upraveny a návrat do původního stavu je nejspíše v valné většině případů nemožný kvůli existující zástavbě.

    Na téma absorbce vody v zemědělství jsem našel tuto metaanalýzu:
    Comparing infiltration rates in soils managed with conventional and alternative farming methods
    https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0215702#sec008
    Overall we found that the largest infiltration rate changes were associated with practices that entail a continuous presence of roots and soil cover, suggested by the positive improvements of perennial systems compared to annual crops and cover crops compared to no cover crops, as well as the negative trend associated with the crop and livestock systems compared to crop systems only. Determining the exact processes underpinning the observed results is outside the scope of meta-analysis.

    While increasing infiltration rates may mostly be considered important for reducing flooding risk, the previously discussed soil improvements can play a role in reducing the impacts of drought.
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    Tridilna serie. Cely zajmavy

    From Dissipating Clouds to Record-Setting Areas of Drought, the State of the Climate in 2023 Was Shockingly Severe | Discover Magazine
    https://www.discovermagazine.com/environment/from-dissipating-clouds-to-record-setting-areas-of-drought-the-state-of-the

    Here in Part 3 of the series, I look at some of the other impacts, starting with one that took me surprise: In addition to being the warmest year, 2023 was also the least cloudy ever observed globally in records dating back four decades. Some areas saw particularly steep declines in cloudiness, including the Indian Ocean, the Arctic, and Northern Hemisphere.

    The global average for cloud cover in 2023 was the lowest ever recorded.
    ...
    In 2023, the report concludes that clouds reflected away to space the smallest amount of energy from the Sun ever observed. That meant more solar energy reached the surface to cause warming. But at the same time, clouds blocked the least amount of heat energy from escaping to space from the surface.

    Teasing out the net effect from changes in cloudiness is complicated, because different kinds of clouds have different impacts. With that caveat in mind, the report concludes that the overall impact "was the weakest cooling effect of clouds on record." And this, in turn, reinforced 2023's shocking warmth.
    ...
    In fact, the amount of precipitation that fell during the year was one of the lowest in records going back to 1979. At the same time, the intensity of rain that did fall increased, which can contribute to damaging deluges.

    As the report points out, this is just what scientists have long expected with a warming climate.
    ...
    Emissions of CO2 by the most advanced economies of the world have peaked and are dropping — even as economic growth continues. They're accomplishing this through efforts to use energy more efficiently, along with a massive ramp-up in renewables. And this points the way forward toward a day when we may finally tame the climate crisis.
    PALEONTOLOG
    PALEONTOLOG --- ---
    ‘The land is becoming desert’: drought pushes Sicily’s farming heritage to the brink | Climate crisis | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/aug/19/the-land-is-becoming-desert-drought-pushes-sicilys-farming-heritage-to-the-brink
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    petrologistika

    Wealthy countries lead in new oil and gas expansion, threatening 12bn tonnes of emissions | Oil and gas companies | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/jul/24/new-oil-gas-emission-data-us-uk

    The new oil and gas field licences forecast to be awarded across the world this year are on track to generate the highest level of emissions since those issued in 2018, as heatwaves, wildfires, drought and floods cause death and destruction globally, according to analysis of industry data by the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD).

    The 11.9bn tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions – which is roughly the same as China’s annual carbon pollution – resulting over their lifetime from all current and upcoming oil and gas fields forecast to be licensed by the end of 2024 would be greater than the past four years combined. The projection includes licences awarded as of June 2024, as well as the oil and gas blocks open for bidding, under evaluation or planned.
    YMLADRIS
    YMLADRIS --- ---
    kdyztak at mi to uz TUHO smaze jako off topic, ale jeste priklad k tomu AI potencialu. je na svete nova stavebnice, geneticka, s potencialem. Kdby se to napojilo na nejake ML, ktere fakt dokaze uvazovat a delat research, tak... (optimalizace managementu nasich ekosystemu and whatnot, rychle).

    The implications of this are staggering. Here are just a few possibilities:

    • Gene Therapy 2.0: Current gene therapy approaches often rely on somewhat random insertion of therapeutic genes. With bridge recombination, we could insert corrective genes exactly where they need to go, without risking disruption of other important genes.

    • Synthetic Biology: Want to give an organism a completely new capability? Just design the gene and insert it precisely where you want it.

    • Evolutionary Biology: We could insert reporter genes at specific locations across the genome, allowing us to watch evolution happen in real time.

    • Agricultural Improvements: We could insert beneficial genes into crops with unprecedented precision, potentially revolutionizing our ability to create drought-resistant or nutrient-enhanced plants.

    • Bioengineering: Imagine being able to design and build entire genetic circuits, inserting each component exactly where it needs to be for optimal function.

    x.com
    https://x.com/patrickc/status/1805996143228375263
    CHOSIE
    CHOSIE --- ---
    Climate change is affecting mental health literally everywhere (yaleclimateconnections.org)
    “Farmers who can’t sleep, worrying they’ll lose everything amid increasing drought. Youth struggling with depression over a future that feels hopeless. Indigenous people grief-stricken over devastated ecosystems. For all these people and more, climate change is taking a clear toll on mental health…”

    “For us, mental health isn’t just about individuals,” he said. “It’s about the collective well-being of our communities and the land itself. When nature suffers, so do we.”
    CHOSIE
    CHOSIE --- ---
    When the water runs dry: Why France is freaking out over a tiny Swiss dam
    Water-rich Switzerland controls Western Europe’s taps — and wants it to stay that way. Its drought-ridden neighbors are getting nervous.
    It’s a perfect recipe for the mounting tensions Brussels has warned could spark water conflicts across Europe.
    PAN_SPRCHA
    PAN_SPRCHA --- ---
    TUHO:
    Já se na ty statistiky radši koukám sám protože jinak z nich vytáhneš číslo co chceš

    2023 7 hurikánů 3 Major
    2016 7 h 4mh
    2010 12 h 5mh
    2005 15 h 7mh to je rok kdy byla Kathrina atd.
    2004 9h 6mh
    2003 7h 3mh

    Třeba ty 2004-2005 se o el-ninu povídalo dost
    El Niño 2004-2005 El Niño wreak havoc on crops and increase fire risk with dangerously dry conditions. Australia endured its worst drought...


    Přitom obě sezóny byly z hlediska počtu hurikánů a škod daleko nad loňskem


    To je to kouzlo statistik:
    Loňská sezona byla od roku 2000 v letech které jsou označeny jako El Nino year
    - Podprůměrná v počtu hurikánů
    - podprůměrná v počtu velký hurikánů
    - druhá nejmenší ve škodách a mrtvých


    Takže proč to nepovažovat za slabší sezónu?

    Počet pojmenovaných systémů tam je v první čtyřce (opět trochu zavádějící výrok kdy za já tam ve statistice vidím rok 2005 kdy bylo 35 pojmenovaných systémů a loni 21, 21 jich bylo i v letech el-nina 2003 a 2010)

    Výrok nejaktivnější sezóna v době El-Nina není pravdivý, to byla určitě ta 2005.


    .
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    UK facing food shortages and price rises after extreme weather | Farming | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/apr/16/uk-facing-food-shortages-and-price-rises-after-extreme-weather

    The UK faces food shortages and price rises as extreme weather linked to climate breakdown causes low yields on farms locally and abroad.

    Record rainfall has meant farmers in many parts of the UK have been unable to plant crops such as potatoes, wheat and vegetables during the key spring season. Crops that have been planted are of poor quality, with some rotting in the ground.

    The persistent wet weather has also meant a high mortality rate for lambs on the UK’s hills, while some dairy cows have been unable to be turned out on to grass, meaning they will produce less milk.

    Agricultural groups have said the UK will be more reliant on imports, but similarly wet conditions in European countries such as France and Germany, as well as drought in Morocco, could mean there is less food to import. Economists have warned this could cause food inflation to rise, meaning higher prices at supermarkets.

    Tom Bradshaw, the president of the National Farmers’ Union, said markets had “collapsed” as farmers fail to produce food in the punishing conditions. He said: “We’re going to be importing a lot more product this year.”

    ...

    France is experiencing the poorest start to its wheat-growing season since 2020 amid cold wet weather, while production of fruit and vegetables in Morocco is being affected by drought. Morocco’s second-largest reservoir has dried up, meaning irrigating crops will be difficult.

    Amber Sawyer, an analyst at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit, said last year almost a third of the UK’s tomatoes, and more than two-thirds of its raspberries and brussels sprouts, came from Morocco.

    “As climate change worsens, the threat to our food supply chains – both at home and overseas – will grow,” Sawyer said.
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    'We are losing the Amazon rainforest': Record number of wildfires in parts of Brazil | CBC News
    https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/amazon-wildfires-brazil-1.7161712

    Fire is sucking the life out of parts of the Amazon rainforest. In Roraima State, in northern Brazil, the number of fires in February were more than five times the average, according to data from Brazil's National Institute for Space Research, and blazes continued to burn through March.

    "We are losing the Amazon rainforest. These changes in the climate right now provoked by El Niño makes this forest fire season even worse than we are used to seeing in the forest," said Marcio Astrini, executive secretary of Brazil's Climate Observatory.

    Wildfires in the normally humid, tropical rainforest have been supercharged by a disastrous combination of elevated temperatures, historic drought and deforestation.

    Even as the year-old government of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has brought down the rate of deforestation in Brazil by more than 20 per cent, a hot dry 2023 stressed the trees within the Amazon, which stretches into eight countries.

    Analysis by Copernicus, a European atmospheric monitoring service, estimates that fires in Brazil released the highest amount of carbon dioxide for the month of February in over two decades. Half of the 45.1 megatons of CO2 released, it reported, came from the fires in Roraima state.
    MATT
    MATT --- ---
    btw: brutalne vyskocili ceny kakaa a pomerancovy stavy. imho prvni vlastovky toho, co se bude dit. Oteplovani, El Nino, stres, nemoci...


    The world is facing the largest cocoa supply deficit in more than 60 years and consumers could start to see the effect at the end of this year or early 2025, Joules said. The International Cocoa Organization has forecast a supply deficit of 374,000 tons for the 2023-24 season, a 405% increase from a deficit of 74,000 tons in the previous season.
    [...]
    Crops have been hit by black pod disease and swollen shoot virus and many trees are past their maximum yield potential because there has not been a major round of planting since the early 2000s, Joules said.

    Heavy rains exacerbated the disease issues, Branch said, and the El Niño weather phenomenon has also led to drier conditions resulting in lower cocoa yields in previous years. Seasonal harmattan winds were more extreme this year, also affecting crop yields, Branch said.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/26/cocoa-prices-are-soaring-to-record-levels-what-it-means-for-consumers.html


    Orange juice prices historically high after crop producer slammed by weather and disease
    https://www.nbcnews.com/now/video/orange-juice-prices-historically-high-after-crop-producer-slammed-by-weather-and-disease-200854597594

    The vast majority of the world’s orange juice is produced in just two countries, the US and Brazil. But both these countries’ orange producing regions (Florida and São Paulo are responsible for more than 85% of global supply) are struggling.
    With a severe drought hitting Brazil and citrus greening disease plaguing both orange producing regions, is the orange juice sector heading for severe shortages?

    Orange juice shortage fuelled by disease and drought
    https://www.foodnavigator.com/Article/2024/02/06/orange-juice-shortage-fuelled-by-disease-and-drought

    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Weather Whiplashing and Jetstream Waviness
    https://youtu.be/RS_0GNk_CfE?si=pAEyL8ImmySD5UrI



    The Climate Emergency Forum welcomes Dr. Jennifer Francis to discuss two of her recent papers on Weather Whiplashing, which is defined as an abrupt shift from one persistent set of often extreme weather conditions to another.

    This video was recorded on February 27th, 2024, and published on March 10th, 2024.

    Dr. Francis introduces the concept of weather whiplashing and provides examples like sudden temperature drops and shifts from drought to heavy rain, highlighting the impact of these events on regions like Florida and California. Dr. Francis explains how weather whiplash events are diagnosed by analyzing patterns in the jet stream using self-organizing maps, emphasizing the role of the Arctic's warming in increasing the frequency of these events.

    The dialogue delves into the intricate relationship between atmospheric patterns, jet stream dynamics, and weather phenomena. Dr. Francis illustrates how anomalies in the upper-level atmosphere can lead to significant shifts in weather patterns, affecting regions like Florida with freeze events and temperature extremes. She discusses the use of AI tools to analyze atmospheric patterns over time and predict future trends in weather whiplash events, particularly focusing on scenarios where the Arctic's warming plays a crucial role in driving these shifts.

    Participants engage in a thought-provoking discussion on the complexities of jet stream behavior, climate factors influencing atmospheric dynamics, and implications for global weather patterns. Questions raised by participants highlight key aspects such as variations in jet stream configurations, heat transfer between equator and poles, and the impact of Arctic warming on jet stream speed and waviness.

    Dr. Francis addresses inquiries about ocean currents' correlation with jet stream patterns and explains how subtleties in jet streams affect phenomena like record low transit times for airplanes flying across continents. The dialogue underscores the interdisciplinary nature of climate research and the interconnectedness of various environmental factors shaping our planet's weather systems.


    https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022JD036717
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Risotto crisis: the fight to save Italy’s beloved dish from extinction | Rice | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/feb/29/risotto-crisis-the-fight-to-save-italys-beloved-dish-from-extinction-aoe


    In 2022, the worst drought in 200 years hit the Po, Italy’s longest river. The waterway forms the lifeblood of a complex web of canals built between the Middle Ages and the 1800s, which serve as the paddy fields’ main source of irrigation. That year, Italy lost 26,000 hectares (64,000 acres) of rice fields, according to Ente Nazionale Risi, the national rice authority, and rice production dropped by more than 30%. Last year, the drought persisted and the crop from another 7,500 hectares of rice fields was lost.

    Today, rice farmers struggling to recover from the impact of the drought face an uncertain future. “The higher the temperatures, the more frequent and intense these extreme events will be,” says Marta Galvagno, a biometeorologist at the Environmental Protection Agency of Aosta Valley.

    Over the past two years, Ferraris, like other farmers in the area, has tried to diversify his crops to reduce the risks brought by the climate crisis. He has reduced the acreage dedicated to paddies and started to grow crops such as maize, that require less water.

    “The climate is changing and I am afraid there will be other droughts,” says Ferraris, whose farm lost about €150,000 [£129,000] in 2022. Rice remains his biggest crop, however. Recently, he has started monitoring snowfalls in the Alps and checking the water levels in Lake Maggiore every day. “It’s hard to sleep at night,” he says.

    Ferraris is particularly worried about the production of carnaroli classico, a refined rice variety. Thanks to its ability to resist high cooking temperatures and absorb flavours, carnaroli is considered the “king of risotto”, but it is also extremely delicate and vulnerable to changes in the climate.
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Carbon offsets aren't a good climate change solution, my research shows.
    https://slate.com/technology/2024/02/carbon-offsets-california-fire-neutral-shipping-climate-change.html

    the promise of using trees to counteract carbon emissions is, unfortunately, undermined by those same emissions. The warmer world we’ve created by burning fossil fuels is one where wildfires are more frequent and intense, drought is more prevalent, and forest disease more virulent. Climate change has supercharged these natural, tree-killing processes, leading to an unfortunate irony: The very forests we often depend on as offsets are under threat and increasingly endangered by climate change itself.

    Nowhere is this more apparent than California’s offset program, a multibillion-dollar market that allows the state’s major polluters to offset some of their emissions instead of reducing the amount of carbon they put into the air in the first place. More than 80 percent of the program’s offsets derive from protecting trees from being cut down—but there’s more than just chain saws threatening those trees.

    ...

    Called the buffer pool, it’s a reserve of credits set aside to compensate for losses due to wildfires or other unforeseen events. Each time a forest enrolls in the program, roughly 15 to 20 percent of the credits it generates go into the pool. Anytime there is a fire, it’s the responsibility of this collectively funded insurance pool to step in and cover any carbon losses. Basically: The offsets come with some backup offsets.

    Although this may seem to be a straightforward and savvy idea on paper, I work for a nonprofit called CarbonPlan, which has spent nearly four years studying how the buffer pool actually plays out in the real world. Our research has shown the pool to be far too shallow. Large fires have burned through at least six forests participating in California’s offset program, including the massive Bootleg Fire in 2021, which blazed through a large offset project in southern Oregon and triggered air quality alerts as far away as New York City. In three of those cases, the damage from wildfire has been so severe that the offset project was canceled altogether.
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