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    TUHOKlimaticka zmena / If the fracturing of our once stable climate doesn’t terrify you, then you don’t fully understand it


    "Given the sheer enormity of climate change, it’s okay to be depressed, to grieve. But please, don’t stay there too long. Join me in pure, unadulterated, righteous anger."


    "I don’t want your hope. I don’t want you to be hopeful. I want you to panic. I want you to feel the fear I feel every day. And then I want you to act. Once you start to act, the hope is everywhere."

    "Our best scientists tell us insistently that a calamity is unfolding, that the life-support systems of the Earth are being damaged in ways that threaten our survival. Yet in the face of these facts we carry on as usual."

    “We’ve got to stop burning fossil fuels. So many aspects of life depend on fossil fuels, except for music and love and education and happiness. These things, which hardly use fossil fuels, are what we must focus on.”

    A nejde o to, že na to nemáme dostatečné technologie, ty by na řešení použít šly, ale chybí nám vůle a představivost je využít. Zůstáváme při zemi, přemýšlíme až moc rezervovaně. Technologický pokrok to sám o sobě nevyřeší. Problém jsme my, ne technologické nástroje.

    Rostouci hladiny oceanu, zmena atmosferickeho proudeni, zmeny v distribuci srazek a sucha. Zmeny karbonoveho, fosforoveho a dusikoveho cyklu, okyselovani oceanu. Jake jsou bezpecnostni rizika a jake potencialni klady dramatickych zmen fungovani zemskeho systemu?
    Ale take jak funguji masove dezinformacni kampane ropneho prumyslu a boj o verejne mineni na prahu noveho klimatickeho rezimu post-holocenu.
    rozbalit záhlaví
    YMLADRIS
    YMLADRIS --- ---
    kdyztak at mi to uz TUHO smaze jako off topic, ale jeste priklad k tomu AI potencialu. je na svete nova stavebnice, geneticka, s potencialem. Kdby se to napojilo na nejake ML, ktere fakt dokaze uvazovat a delat research, tak... (optimalizace managementu nasich ekosystemu and whatnot, rychle).

    The implications of this are staggering. Here are just a few possibilities:

    • Gene Therapy 2.0: Current gene therapy approaches often rely on somewhat random insertion of therapeutic genes. With bridge recombination, we could insert corrective genes exactly where they need to go, without risking disruption of other important genes.

    • Synthetic Biology: Want to give an organism a completely new capability? Just design the gene and insert it precisely where you want it.

    • Evolutionary Biology: We could insert reporter genes at specific locations across the genome, allowing us to watch evolution happen in real time.

    • Agricultural Improvements: We could insert beneficial genes into crops with unprecedented precision, potentially revolutionizing our ability to create drought-resistant or nutrient-enhanced plants.

    • Bioengineering: Imagine being able to design and build entire genetic circuits, inserting each component exactly where it needs to be for optimal function.

    x.com
    https://x.com/patrickc/status/1805996143228375263
    CHOSIE
    CHOSIE --- ---
    Climate change is affecting mental health literally everywhere (yaleclimateconnections.org)
    “Farmers who can’t sleep, worrying they’ll lose everything amid increasing drought. Youth struggling with depression over a future that feels hopeless. Indigenous people grief-stricken over devastated ecosystems. For all these people and more, climate change is taking a clear toll on mental health…”

    “For us, mental health isn’t just about individuals,” he said. “It’s about the collective well-being of our communities and the land itself. When nature suffers, so do we.”
    CHOSIE
    CHOSIE --- ---
    When the water runs dry: Why France is freaking out over a tiny Swiss dam
    Water-rich Switzerland controls Western Europe’s taps — and wants it to stay that way. Its drought-ridden neighbors are getting nervous.
    It’s a perfect recipe for the mounting tensions Brussels has warned could spark water conflicts across Europe.
    PAN_SPRCHA
    PAN_SPRCHA --- ---
    TUHO:
    Já se na ty statistiky radši koukám sám protože jinak z nich vytáhneš číslo co chceš

    2023 7 hurikánů 3 Major
    2016 7 h 4mh
    2010 12 h 5mh
    2005 15 h 7mh to je rok kdy byla Kathrina atd.
    2004 9h 6mh
    2003 7h 3mh

    Třeba ty 2004-2005 se o el-ninu povídalo dost
    El Niño 2004-2005 El Niño wreak havoc on crops and increase fire risk with dangerously dry conditions. Australia endured its worst drought...


    Přitom obě sezóny byly z hlediska počtu hurikánů a škod daleko nad loňskem


    To je to kouzlo statistik:
    Loňská sezona byla od roku 2000 v letech které jsou označeny jako El Nino year
    - Podprůměrná v počtu hurikánů
    - podprůměrná v počtu velký hurikánů
    - druhá nejmenší ve škodách a mrtvých


    Takže proč to nepovažovat za slabší sezónu?

    Počet pojmenovaných systémů tam je v první čtyřce (opět trochu zavádějící výrok kdy za já tam ve statistice vidím rok 2005 kdy bylo 35 pojmenovaných systémů a loni 21, 21 jich bylo i v letech el-nina 2003 a 2010)

    Výrok nejaktivnější sezóna v době El-Nina není pravdivý, to byla určitě ta 2005.


    .
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    UK facing food shortages and price rises after extreme weather | Farming | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/apr/16/uk-facing-food-shortages-and-price-rises-after-extreme-weather

    The UK faces food shortages and price rises as extreme weather linked to climate breakdown causes low yields on farms locally and abroad.

    Record rainfall has meant farmers in many parts of the UK have been unable to plant crops such as potatoes, wheat and vegetables during the key spring season. Crops that have been planted are of poor quality, with some rotting in the ground.

    The persistent wet weather has also meant a high mortality rate for lambs on the UK’s hills, while some dairy cows have been unable to be turned out on to grass, meaning they will produce less milk.

    Agricultural groups have said the UK will be more reliant on imports, but similarly wet conditions in European countries such as France and Germany, as well as drought in Morocco, could mean there is less food to import. Economists have warned this could cause food inflation to rise, meaning higher prices at supermarkets.

    Tom Bradshaw, the president of the National Farmers’ Union, said markets had “collapsed” as farmers fail to produce food in the punishing conditions. He said: “We’re going to be importing a lot more product this year.”

    ...

    France is experiencing the poorest start to its wheat-growing season since 2020 amid cold wet weather, while production of fruit and vegetables in Morocco is being affected by drought. Morocco’s second-largest reservoir has dried up, meaning irrigating crops will be difficult.

    Amber Sawyer, an analyst at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit, said last year almost a third of the UK’s tomatoes, and more than two-thirds of its raspberries and brussels sprouts, came from Morocco.

    “As climate change worsens, the threat to our food supply chains – both at home and overseas – will grow,” Sawyer said.
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    'We are losing the Amazon rainforest': Record number of wildfires in parts of Brazil | CBC News
    https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/amazon-wildfires-brazil-1.7161712

    Fire is sucking the life out of parts of the Amazon rainforest. In Roraima State, in northern Brazil, the number of fires in February were more than five times the average, according to data from Brazil's National Institute for Space Research, and blazes continued to burn through March.

    "We are losing the Amazon rainforest. These changes in the climate right now provoked by El Niño makes this forest fire season even worse than we are used to seeing in the forest," said Marcio Astrini, executive secretary of Brazil's Climate Observatory.

    Wildfires in the normally humid, tropical rainforest have been supercharged by a disastrous combination of elevated temperatures, historic drought and deforestation.

    Even as the year-old government of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has brought down the rate of deforestation in Brazil by more than 20 per cent, a hot dry 2023 stressed the trees within the Amazon, which stretches into eight countries.

    Analysis by Copernicus, a European atmospheric monitoring service, estimates that fires in Brazil released the highest amount of carbon dioxide for the month of February in over two decades. Half of the 45.1 megatons of CO2 released, it reported, came from the fires in Roraima state.
    MATT
    MATT --- ---
    btw: brutalne vyskocili ceny kakaa a pomerancovy stavy. imho prvni vlastovky toho, co se bude dit. Oteplovani, El Nino, stres, nemoci...


    The world is facing the largest cocoa supply deficit in more than 60 years and consumers could start to see the effect at the end of this year or early 2025, Joules said. The International Cocoa Organization has forecast a supply deficit of 374,000 tons for the 2023-24 season, a 405% increase from a deficit of 74,000 tons in the previous season.
    [...]
    Crops have been hit by black pod disease and swollen shoot virus and many trees are past their maximum yield potential because there has not been a major round of planting since the early 2000s, Joules said.

    Heavy rains exacerbated the disease issues, Branch said, and the El Niño weather phenomenon has also led to drier conditions resulting in lower cocoa yields in previous years. Seasonal harmattan winds were more extreme this year, also affecting crop yields, Branch said.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/26/cocoa-prices-are-soaring-to-record-levels-what-it-means-for-consumers.html


    Orange juice prices historically high after crop producer slammed by weather and disease
    https://www.nbcnews.com/now/video/orange-juice-prices-historically-high-after-crop-producer-slammed-by-weather-and-disease-200854597594

    The vast majority of the world’s orange juice is produced in just two countries, the US and Brazil. But both these countries’ orange producing regions (Florida and São Paulo are responsible for more than 85% of global supply) are struggling.
    With a severe drought hitting Brazil and citrus greening disease plaguing both orange producing regions, is the orange juice sector heading for severe shortages?

    Orange juice shortage fuelled by disease and drought
    https://www.foodnavigator.com/Article/2024/02/06/orange-juice-shortage-fuelled-by-disease-and-drought

    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Weather Whiplashing and Jetstream Waviness
    https://youtu.be/RS_0GNk_CfE?si=pAEyL8ImmySD5UrI



    The Climate Emergency Forum welcomes Dr. Jennifer Francis to discuss two of her recent papers on Weather Whiplashing, which is defined as an abrupt shift from one persistent set of often extreme weather conditions to another.

    This video was recorded on February 27th, 2024, and published on March 10th, 2024.

    Dr. Francis introduces the concept of weather whiplashing and provides examples like sudden temperature drops and shifts from drought to heavy rain, highlighting the impact of these events on regions like Florida and California. Dr. Francis explains how weather whiplash events are diagnosed by analyzing patterns in the jet stream using self-organizing maps, emphasizing the role of the Arctic's warming in increasing the frequency of these events.

    The dialogue delves into the intricate relationship between atmospheric patterns, jet stream dynamics, and weather phenomena. Dr. Francis illustrates how anomalies in the upper-level atmosphere can lead to significant shifts in weather patterns, affecting regions like Florida with freeze events and temperature extremes. She discusses the use of AI tools to analyze atmospheric patterns over time and predict future trends in weather whiplash events, particularly focusing on scenarios where the Arctic's warming plays a crucial role in driving these shifts.

    Participants engage in a thought-provoking discussion on the complexities of jet stream behavior, climate factors influencing atmospheric dynamics, and implications for global weather patterns. Questions raised by participants highlight key aspects such as variations in jet stream configurations, heat transfer between equator and poles, and the impact of Arctic warming on jet stream speed and waviness.

    Dr. Francis addresses inquiries about ocean currents' correlation with jet stream patterns and explains how subtleties in jet streams affect phenomena like record low transit times for airplanes flying across continents. The dialogue underscores the interdisciplinary nature of climate research and the interconnectedness of various environmental factors shaping our planet's weather systems.


    https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022JD036717
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Risotto crisis: the fight to save Italy’s beloved dish from extinction | Rice | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/feb/29/risotto-crisis-the-fight-to-save-italys-beloved-dish-from-extinction-aoe


    In 2022, the worst drought in 200 years hit the Po, Italy’s longest river. The waterway forms the lifeblood of a complex web of canals built between the Middle Ages and the 1800s, which serve as the paddy fields’ main source of irrigation. That year, Italy lost 26,000 hectares (64,000 acres) of rice fields, according to Ente Nazionale Risi, the national rice authority, and rice production dropped by more than 30%. Last year, the drought persisted and the crop from another 7,500 hectares of rice fields was lost.

    Today, rice farmers struggling to recover from the impact of the drought face an uncertain future. “The higher the temperatures, the more frequent and intense these extreme events will be,” says Marta Galvagno, a biometeorologist at the Environmental Protection Agency of Aosta Valley.

    Over the past two years, Ferraris, like other farmers in the area, has tried to diversify his crops to reduce the risks brought by the climate crisis. He has reduced the acreage dedicated to paddies and started to grow crops such as maize, that require less water.

    “The climate is changing and I am afraid there will be other droughts,” says Ferraris, whose farm lost about €150,000 [£129,000] in 2022. Rice remains his biggest crop, however. Recently, he has started monitoring snowfalls in the Alps and checking the water levels in Lake Maggiore every day. “It’s hard to sleep at night,” he says.

    Ferraris is particularly worried about the production of carnaroli classico, a refined rice variety. Thanks to its ability to resist high cooking temperatures and absorb flavours, carnaroli is considered the “king of risotto”, but it is also extremely delicate and vulnerable to changes in the climate.
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Carbon offsets aren't a good climate change solution, my research shows.
    https://slate.com/technology/2024/02/carbon-offsets-california-fire-neutral-shipping-climate-change.html

    the promise of using trees to counteract carbon emissions is, unfortunately, undermined by those same emissions. The warmer world we’ve created by burning fossil fuels is one where wildfires are more frequent and intense, drought is more prevalent, and forest disease more virulent. Climate change has supercharged these natural, tree-killing processes, leading to an unfortunate irony: The very forests we often depend on as offsets are under threat and increasingly endangered by climate change itself.

    Nowhere is this more apparent than California’s offset program, a multibillion-dollar market that allows the state’s major polluters to offset some of their emissions instead of reducing the amount of carbon they put into the air in the first place. More than 80 percent of the program’s offsets derive from protecting trees from being cut down—but there’s more than just chain saws threatening those trees.

    ...

    Called the buffer pool, it’s a reserve of credits set aside to compensate for losses due to wildfires or other unforeseen events. Each time a forest enrolls in the program, roughly 15 to 20 percent of the credits it generates go into the pool. Anytime there is a fire, it’s the responsibility of this collectively funded insurance pool to step in and cover any carbon losses. Basically: The offsets come with some backup offsets.

    Although this may seem to be a straightforward and savvy idea on paper, I work for a nonprofit called CarbonPlan, which has spent nearly four years studying how the buffer pool actually plays out in the real world. Our research has shown the pool to be far too shallow. Large fires have burned through at least six forests participating in California’s offset program, including the massive Bootleg Fire in 2021, which blazed through a large offset project in southern Oregon and triggered air quality alerts as far away as New York City. In three of those cases, the damage from wildfire has been so severe that the offset project was canceled altogether.
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Brazil Drought 2023 | Amazon Region Hit By A Severe Drought In Brazil | English News | News18 | N18V
    https://youtube.com/watch?v=6QuCqeuVC7M
    XCHAOS
    XCHAOS --- ---
    Kees van der Leun: "The extent of the drought in Amazonas. The top ph…" - mastodon.energy
    https://mastodon.energy/@Sustainable2050/111199988290298513
    sucho v Amazonii
    SCHWEPZ
    SCHWEPZ --- ---
    Unprecedented €2.2bn drought response plan approved in Spain | Spain | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/11/spain-approves-unprecedented-drought-recovery-plan

    Španělsko má za sebou abnormální jaro. Duben byl nebývale horký a i když se v květnu situace mírně zlepšila, zemi trápí sucho. Vláda promptně schválila bezprecedentní balíček opatření.

    Španělsko vysychá, tak zlé to ještě nebylo. Úřady radí sprchovat se do pěti minut - Seznam Zprávy
    https://www.seznamzpravy.cz/clanek/zahranicni-spanelsko-vysycha-tak-zle-to-jeste-nebylo-urady-radi-sprchovat-se-do-peti-minut-231920#dop_ab_variant=957011&dop_source_zone_name=hpfeed.sznhp.box&;utm_source=www.seznam.cz&utm_medium=sekce-z-internetu

    https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/02/europe/spain-drought-catalonia-heat-wave-climate-intl/index.html

    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    Efforts to assess risks to the financial system associated with climate change are growing. These commonly combine the use of integrated assessment models to obtain possible changes in global mean temperature (GMT) and then use coupled climate models to map those changes onto finer spatial scales to estimate changes in other variables. Other methods use data mined from 'ensembles of opportunity' such as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Several challenges with current approaches have been identified. Here, we focus on demonstrating the issues inherent in applying global 'top-down' climate scenarios to explore financial risks at geographical scales of relevance to financial institutions (e.g. city-scale). We use data mined from the CMIP to determine the degree to which estimates of GMT can be used to estimate changes in the annual extremes of temperature and rainfall, two compound events (heatwaves and drought, and extreme rain and strong winds), and whether the emission scenario provides insights into the change in the 20, 50 and 100 year return values for temperature and rainfall. We show that GMT provides little insight on how acute risks likely material to the financial sector ('material extremes') will change at a city-scale. We conclude that 'top-down' approaches are likely to be flawed when applied at a granular scale, and that there are risks in employing the approaches used by, for example, the Network of Central Banks and Supervisors for Greening the Financial System. Most fundamental, uncertainty associated with projections of future climate extremes must be propagated through to estimating risk. We strongly encourage a review of existing top-down approaches before they develop into de facto standards and note that existing approaches that use a 'bottom-up' strategy (e.g. catastrophe modelling and storylines) are more likely to enable a robust assessment of material risk.

    Acute climate risks in the financial system: examining the utility of climate model projections - IOPscience
    https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/2752-5295/ac856f/meta
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adf2027

    Here, we show that tree seedlings inoculated with microbial communities sourced from drier, warmer, or colder sites displayed higher survival when faced with drought, heat, or cold stress, respectively. Microbially mediated drought tolerance was associated with increased diversity of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi, whereas cold tolerance was associated with lower fungal richness, likely reflecting a reduced burden of nonadapted fungal taxa. Understanding microbially mediated climate tolerance may enhance our ability to predict and manage the adaptability of forest ecosystems to changing climates.
    PER2
    PER2 --- ---
    zatim pohoda


    Firefighters battle hundreds of blazes as Israel sizzles under blistering heatwave.
    "Temperatures of 40 and even 50 degrees will not be rare in Israel soon"
    After the heavy heat wave on Friday, which brought with it fires and power outages, Prof. Daniel Rosenfeld said in an interview with the Ynet studio that this is a result of the climate crisis. He said that there are other consequences, such as rains in the summer during heavy rains. "This trend was predicted to happen only in decades and to my astonishment I see that it is already happening now"

    Incredible heat wave in Siberia, with reports of temperatures exceeding 38°C (100.4°F), breaking monthly and in at least one case, an all-time heat record

    'Relentless' heatwaves scorch southern China, test power grids
    Having sweltered through May, southern and eastern China face more weeks of unrelenting heatwaves, putting power grids under strain as demand for air-conditioning soars in mega-cities like Shanghai.

    Ocean temperatures still soaring above all modern records. A huge concern with an impending El Niño set to release 3 years of stored energy back into the atmosphere.
    That means more intense rainfall, drought due to shifting winds, extreme heat, coral reefs dying etc.

    Canada is currently facing its worst wildfires ever recorded. Thousands of people have been evacuated in the provinces of Nova Scotia, Quebec and New Brunswick. Firefighters are struggling to get the fires under control.

    India - Temperatures in certain areas of the capital, which has a population of more than 20 million, recently crossed 45 degrees Celsius (113 degrees Fahrenheit), making it one of the hottest days of the year.

    Amid record-breaking heat, Vietnam's capital Hanoi is reducing street lighting to save energy. This is being done to keep the national power system running. Weather officials have warned that the heatwave could continue in the month of June.
    TADEAS
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    Devastating floods in Italy claim lives and leave thousands homeless | Italy | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/17/italy-storms-people-dead-thousands-evacuated-emlia-romagna

    Before the latest floods, Emilia-Romagna and other areas of northern Italy were blighted by a drought that dried out land, reducing its capacity to absorb water

    ...

    Wars, famines, droughts, floods
    Hurricanes, heat waves, murders, thugs
    Chaos, refugees, stress, disease
    Extinction, disaster, I-P-C-C

    TADEAS:
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    https://twitter.com/michaelemann/status/1651019204382818307?s=46
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Europe’s next crisis: Water – POLITICO
    https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-next-crisis-water-drought-climate-change/

    https://twitter.com/RogerHallamCS21/status/1656256682278756352?s=19


    https://twitter.com/RogerHallamCS21/status/1656256684614983680?s=19
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    TADEAS:

    https://twitter.com/rahmstorf/status/1652324233819594752?s=19


    full vid: https://youtu.be/JODkZlTQmqk
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