A New Calculation of Global Trends. Are we Close to Collapse?
https://senecaeffect.substack.com/p/a-new-calculation-of-global-trends

Here, Berndt Warm describes an update based on the “World3” model, directly based on the German case and on the idea that motor vehicles are a “proxy” for the whole economic system.

Warm’s main result is shown at the beginning of this post. The world’s industrial system appears to be at the peak, while the global decline of population is expected to start around 2030. Don’t take this, or any other model-based scenarios, as prophecies; they are extrapolations of the existing data based on reasonable assumptions.

Emails Show Epstein Scheming That Environmental Destruction Could Solve "Overpopulation"
https://futurism.com/science-energy/epstein-climate-change-population
“Maybe climate change is a good way of dealing with overpopulation,” Epstein wrote. “The earths forest fire. potentially a good thing for the species.”

TADEAS: :))

R Hallam
https://www.facebook.com/share/16JmFNt4bU/

Guardian fuckery continues.

The mass death of billions is getting closer, but hey, "most people are unaware" says the ever innocent Guardian newspaper.

Hmm... wonder why that might be?

Maybe it's because its latest article on the biggest shit show in the history of humanity is nestled in the middle of other day's news - i.e., articles on reading being a good way to stop dementia, or an actor dying, and the Liverpool/Sunderland match.

Maybe, just maybe, it's because the Guardian and the rest of the liberal media are so pathetically incapable of calling a spade a spade. What the fuck does "a hellish "hothouse" earth" actually mean? Let's look it up. Oh yes, in the appendix of Prof Tim Lenton's last report it says 2 billion deaths at 2C, coming along in the next 10 years or so. OH! okay. A bit more important than a cure for a disease, an actor's dying, and a football match.

And last maybe just, really just maybe - if the Guardian really wanted to make people "aware" then well there are a hundred ways it could do it, but they would all involve risking the finances, status and privileges of the western liberal class - and well, that really would not do - at least not to save those brown and black people "over there" before "it" comes for us.

Why do you think the Guardian supported liberal slave owners two hundred years ago?

Some things never change.

"Climate hushing"—the quiet trend undermining global climate action
https://www.talkingclimate.ca/p/climate-hushingthe-quiet-trend-undermining?

As political winds have shifted in the United States and elsewhere over the past year, “climate hushing” has become a real thing: and that’s bad news. “When leaders don’t talk about something, enthusiasm falls among voters,” Senator Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island writes here. “In politics, you can often make your own wind, or you can make your own doldrums.”

Unfortunately, climate hushing is going global. This year, when world leaders spoke at the World Economic Forum’s meeting in January, nearly every single one of them avoided the topic—even Prime Minister Mark Carney, a former UN Special Envoy for Climate Action and Finance. Why is this? “In today’s deeply polarizing U.S. political stance, climate discussion has come to feel so radioactive that many leaders would rather avoid it,” sustainable business professor Anjali Chaudhry writes.

The only major leader to break the silence was Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, who used his speech to press for collaborative climate action. ”We invite enterprises from all over the world to embrace the opportunities from the green and low-carbon transition, and work closely with China in such areas as green infrastructure, green energy, green minerals and green finance,” he said.

The organization We Don’t Have Time hosted an alternative WEF speech, held on a pile of snow and featuring several of my colleagues and leading systems thinkers, including Dr. Johan Rockström, Sandrine Dixson-Declève, and former Unilever CEO Paul Polman, who said,

“We know what needs to be done [about climate change]. It is not a failure of resources. Global capital has never been more abundant. It is a failure of collaboration and collective action. A failure of governments to align around shared interests rather than narrow advantage; of businesses to act as system-shapers rather than short-term competitors; and of leaders across sectors to share risk, and act in service of a common good.”

R Read
https://www.facebook.com/1665584510/posts/pfbid0qNX5uXcSZsdAt3k7BuoiWnBt2QBdLgBeYL8StSp6FL2Q7q3XtJKMxvU7uSJEtNhyl/

Why is AI likely to make the disinformation situation immeasurably worse? It isn’t just because of its worryingly realistic deep fakes.

It’s because >it has no conception of reality<. It’s because it is just as good as making false things - of which there are an infinity - as true things - of which, in each case, there is only one.

Before AI, reality and truth had a built-in advantage. That has now gone.
AI is going to
be a full-on catastrophe for our shared sense of reality, and for areas in which truth utterly matters (eg climate, pandemics, AI…)…

Are we on the Edge of Collapse? Impressive Data from a Recalibration of World3
https://senecaeffect.substack.com/p/are-we-on-the-edge-of-collapse-impressive

According to this model, the collapse of industrial production should start next year. Agricultural collapse will be at about the same time. Population should start collapsing a few years later, and pollution will reach a peak around 2080 at levels some three times higher than the current ones. If this is a good prediction, we are in for a rough ride, a VERY rough ride.

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jiec.13442

TADEAS:
Za mě zkrátka za těch pár let co od něj občas něco vidím se snaží diskreditovat to co vybočuje z mainstreamu a přibarvuje realitu (podobně jako Gates/Richie, jestli si pamatuji byla mezi nimi i nějaká spolupráce) a označení "hopium" je na místě - můj problém tedy je, že to není vědecky upřímné - například jako argument používá zjednodušené ZEC modely a TCRE/CWC odhady, zatímco kritizuje ECS odhady a ignoruje ESS. Nemluvě o výrocích, které jsou lživé.

To že potom hází do jednoho pytle to co vybočuje (např. James Hansen, či obecně kritika IPCC apod.) společně s lidmi, kteří propagují NTHE (near-term human extinction) - např. McPherson, Dowd - je přinejmenším nečestné. A stejně lze za "nečestné" a "neupřímné" označit ty, kteří NTHE hlásají, je to v podstatě druhá strana mince.

Takže to není jen o nějaké bublině, tady se bavíme o datech, která selektivně ignoruje. Pokud je třeba ta zmíněná kritika IPCC nebo publikace Hansena fakticky špatná, tak to lze přeci obhájit vědecky místo škatulkování, že jsou to všechno "doomeři". A poté tuto škatuly, do které hází široké spektrum vědců a expertů nazývá "mentální poruchou", H. Richie "horší než popírači" (oprava mé předchozí zprávy)

Some of the friendly fire comes from fellow scientists who have gone down the path of doomism or at least what we might call "soft doomism," that is, emissions reductions alone are not adequate to prevent catastrophic warming.

Even revered climate scientist James Hansen, whose early predictions of warming proved prophetic, has gotten sucked into the vortex of soft doomism. The scientific consensus is that we can still avert a catastrophic planetary warming of 1.5 degrees Celsius (3 degrees Fahrenheit) if we rapidly reduce carbon emissions this decade.
(https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/climate-change/action-on-climate-change-faces-new-threat-the-doomers-who-think-its-too-late-to-act)

Nicméně samozřejmě jsou mnohem horší lidé a dá se jasně říct, že "taháme za stejný provaz", jen jsme myslím v dostatečně specifickém vláknu, kde je prostor na pro tuto diskuzi.

Další materiál k tématu:

I read Michael Mann’s The New Climate War so you don’t have to. – Another End of the World is Possible
https://anotherendoftheworld.org/2021/03/23/i-read-michael-manns-the-new-climate-war-so-you-dont-have-to/

GBU Episode 2: Good Bad & Ugly - Science Communicators - Michael Mann / Bill Nye Corporate Shills.
https://youtu.be/YxMCxgv5wGE

BEIJING, Oct 14 (Reuters) - A Chinese container ship has completed a pioneering journey through the Arctic to a UK port, state-run news agency Xinhua reported, cutting in half the usual transit time for the electric vehicles and solar panels aboard destined for Europe.

The Istanbul Bridge's maiden voyage, originally expected to take 18 days, was delayed by two days due to a storm off the coast of Norway but the ship still reached Europe earlier than the 40 to 50 days it takes freighters going through the Suez Canal or around the Cape of Good Hope.

The new Northern Sea Route, running entirely through Arctic waters and within Russia's exclusive economic zone, can now be navigated by ships due to global warming.

https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/chinese-freighter-halves-eu-delivery-time-maiden-arctic-voyage-uk-2025-10-14/

PER2: v CR je to naopsk. solarníci bad, babisovy biopaliva good

china bad, skanzen good

bylo ze carbon storage asi nepujde?

A study led by researchers from NASA found that the world doesn’t have remotely enough safe places to store carbon dioxide to realize some of humanity’s more ambitious carbon capture plans. These plans typically assume that carbon dioxide, once captured, would be pumped under pressure underground into suitable rocks and sealed there. But finding rock formations where the carbon dioxide does not leak back out isn’t all that easy. The researchers also excluded any locations nearby human settlements due to the risk inherent in such storage, and any locations that would make storage too costly. They conclude that the places left could effectively reduce global warming by about 0.7°C if fully used – far less than the 5-6°C assumed to be possible in some scenarios (especially those favored by the fossil fuel industry).

While it’s good to quantify the problem, I think these numbers are redundant because the technology to remove carbon from the atmosphere (or even capture it effectively at fossil fuel power plants) is currently so inefficient and costly it won’t make any difference for global warming, certainly not in the near future, and quite possibly not ever. Press release here. Paper here.

(newsletter Sabine Hossenfelder)

ACCELERATING SEA LEVEL RISE & 2024 JUMP

Acceleration of sea level rise is unquesionable
NASA said a jump in 2024 was unexpected.
Loss of ice from Greenland and Antarctica is increasing, and ice loss from mountain glaciers is accelerating- which has major effect on se level. Most of the sea level rise is actually now from land ice melt. It's a good indicator of the power of global warming.

nasa.gov/missions/jason…

https://x.com/PCarterClimate/status/1963686850792661035?t=X_TQhvgYKax9C_BCvrupYw&s=19

Tory shadow energy minister claims 2050 net zero goal ‘not based on science’ | Conservatives | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/may/13/tory-shadow-energy-minister-claims-2050-net-zero-goal-not-based-on-science


The Conservative party’s energy spokesperson has attacked leading climate scientists as biased and claimed Kemi Badenoch could take the UK out of the Paris climate agreement.

Andrew Bowie, the acting shadow secretary for energy, told the Guardian that the target of reaching net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 – passed into law by Theresa May – was “arbitrary” and “not based on science”.

He also indicated that the UK’s participation in the 2015 Paris climate agreement was up for reconsideration in the party’s ongoing review of key policies. The only other country to have withdrawn from the agreement is the US, twice, under Donald Trump.

Bowie said: “We are not climate deniers and while we believe in getting to net zero, what we shouldn’t do is be hamstrung by arbitrary targets such as a date of 2050, which was concocted simply because it was a good end point as a date. There’s no scientific rationale for choosing 2050 as the point to which we should reach net zero.”

Jan Umsonst https://www.facebook.com/taoist.attack/posts/3422485977881946
·
A look on the Southern Ocean marine heatwaves - doesn't look good, as they are also intensifying...
Our main problem: ocean heat uptake remained even during the El Nino 2023/24 on record levels - insane the numbers of the last years!
Important for this post: During La Ninas the oceans take up much more heat than during El Ninos.
The central to eastern tropical Pacific being colder than normal during La NInas supports ocean heat uptake over the abnormal cold areas. During El Ninos the opposite happens as the oceans loose vast amounts of heat to the atmosphere during El Ninos when the central to eastern tropical Pacific is warmer than normal.
The high rates of ocean heat uptake during the triple La Nina from 2020 to 2022 are thought to be one reason behind the exceptional ocean surface warming during 2023/24. Some of the take up heat resurfaced into the upper mixed layer during 2023/24 which caused this exceptional surface warming signal. The El Nino in 2023/24 played here a large role.
Still the signal of heat resurfacing had been exceptional.
But now we have the problem that ocean heat uptake did not decline or reversed during 2023/24 when we had the last El Nino emitting vast amounts of energy into the atmosphere.
The rates of ocean heat uptake had been similar in 2023/24 to 2020-22, which should not be possible, at least not back on back...
Lets talk about numbers...
The numbers of ocean heat uptake (IAP/CAS dataset) in 2021 of 15Zj, 2022 of 19Zj, 2023 of 16Zj and 2024 of 16ZJ (1) have to be seen in relation to these numbers:
Regardless of which estimate is used, there has been a two- to three- fold increase in the rate of increase in OHC since the late 1980s. For example, according to the IAP analy- sis, the OHC trend for 1958–1985 is 3.1 ± 0.5 ZJ yr−1, and since 1986, the OHC trend is 9.2 ± 0.5 ZJ yr−1 (Fig. 2). The IAP trend within 1958–1985 of 3.1 ± 0.5 ZJ yr−1 is higher than the previous release in Cheng et al. (2023) (2.3 ± 0.5 ZJ yr−1), mainly because the new inclusion of the bottle data bias correction. After 2007, with better global coverage of ocean subsurface data, OHC uncertainty is reduced. There is a significant warming trend of 10.8 ± 1.2 ZJ yr−1 and 10.3 ± 0.8 ZJ yr−1 from 2007–2023 for IAP/CAS and NCEI/NOAA (seasonal time series), respectively (Fig. 2). The NCEI three-month OHC estimate has a slightly stronger trend than the pentadal time series from 2005 to 2020, indicating the impact of sam- pling changes associated with the mapping approach. (2)
(1) New Record Ocean Temperatures and Related Climate Indicators in 2023"; https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00376-024-3378-5
(2) "Record High Temperatures in the Ocean in 2024"; https://link.springer.com/.../10.1007/s00376-025-4541-3...
These studies are important for what happens in the oceans (read them in the order):
(1) "New Record Ocean Temperatures and Related Climate Indichttps://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00376-024-3378-5
(2) "A Glimpse into the Future: The 2023 Ocean Temperature and Sea Ice Extremes in the Context of Longer-Term Climate Change "; https://journals.ametsoc.org/.../105/3/BAMS-D-23-0209.1.xml
(3) "Record High Temperatures in the Ocean in 2024"; https://link.springer.com/.../10.1007/s00376-025-4541-3...
(4) "Quantifying the acceleration of multidecadal global sea surface warming driven by Earth's energy imbalance"; https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/adaa8a
"Drivers of the 2023 record shattering marine heat extreme in the North Atlantic"; https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-5046018/v1

onovitelne zdroje ve valce
Ukraine has seen success in building clean energy, which is harder for Russia to destroy | AP News
https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-clean-renewable-energy-russian-bombing-distributed-1f226213742cc057f9f65208167e6f38

Attacks on two DTEK solar farms last spring are a good example. They destroyed many solar panels and some of the transformers, which step up voltage for long distances or step it down for use in homes. Replacing the transformers and swapping out destroyed panels allowed the farms, which generate 400 megawatts, to be back up in seven days.

Timchenko said an attack on a thermal generating station, which experienced a similar amount of damage, took three to four months to rebuild.

“That’s the difference between centralized and so-called decentralized generation. It’s much more resistant and difficult to destroy,” said Timchenko.

nekdo random na redditu se snazi rozebrat dynamiku mezi ruznymi klimatology

SS: We Study Climate Change. We Can’t Explain What We’re Seeing. - Gavin Schmidt (Head of GISS) and Zeke Hausfather (Berkeley Earth)

This "opinion" piece in today's NYT is basically a position statement from the Moderate faction in Climate Science. Schmidt and Hausfather are the "serious science" voices in that faction. As opposed to people like Michael Mann who pushes "hopium" and has stated that he views "doomism" as a "mental illness".

It's significant both for what it says and for what it doesn't say.

What it says that's important:

"The earth has been exceptionally warm of late, with every month from June 2023 until this past September breaking records."

"It has been considerably hotter even than climate scientists expected."

"Average temperatures during the past 12 months have also been above the goal set by the Paris climate agreement: to keep global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius over preindustrial levels."

-translation: We are now above +1.5°C, WAY sooner than the Moderates thought it was going to happen.

"the unusual jump in global temperatures starting in mid-2023 appears to be higher than our models predicted (even as they generally remain within the expected range)."

-translation: The temperatures are GENERALLY within "the expected range" of the Moderate General Climate Models BUT at the HIGH END of the models. Meaning "Climate Sensitivity" to 2XCO2 is probably higher than they thought.

"While there have been many partial hypotheses — new low-sulfur fuel standards for marine shipping, a volcanic eruption in 2022, lower Chinese aerosol emissions and El Niño perhaps behaving differently than in the recent past."

-translation: 4 years ago we COMPLETELY ignored James Hansen when he predicted up to +0.6°C of warming from the change in marine diesel. Zeke estimated only +0.06°C of warming would result from that change. We would rather DIE than admit Hansen was right, but NOTHING ELSE explains what's happened.

"we remain far from a consensus explanation even more than a year after we first noticed the anomalies. And that makes us uneasy."

-translation: We don't know what's going on and we're scared.

"Why is it taking so long for climate scientists to grapple with these questions?"

-translation: The theories and models of the Moderates aren't working is why BUT they cannot admit that the Alarmists might have been right all along. So now, they are spending a LOT of time trying out EVERY OTHER possible explanation.

"It turns out that we do not have systems in place to explore the significance of shorter-term phenomena in the climate in anything approaching real time. But we need them badly. It’s now time for government science agencies to provide more timely updates in response to the rapid changes in the climate."

-translation: We need MORE MONEY to build out a better climate monitoring system.

Which is what the rest of the piece is a plea for.

The graphs are interesting and give a good idea of just how much 2023 and 2024 have been OFF THE CHARTS bad.

clanek zde https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/13/opinion/climate-change-heat-planet.html?unlocked_article_code=1.aU4.yUZL.WUVZeJCH6AiT&smid=re-share

Tak dneskem muzeme asi vsechny nadeje na nejakou rozumnou hranici otepleni planety odpiskat. Good luck children