Focus on the ‘Forgotten Greenhouse Gas’ Intensifies as All Eyes Are on the U.S. and China to Curb Pollution - Inside Climate News
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/26092024/us-and-china-greenhouse-gas-nitrous-oxide-emissions/

the United States and China, which together are responsible for approximately 80 percent of the world’s nitrous oxide emissions from the industrial sector. The emissions come primarily from the production of adipic acid, a precursor to high-strength nylon, and nitric acid, used in fertilizer production.

The nitrous oxide emissions from chemical plants in China and the U.S. were the focus of a 2020 investigation by Inside Climate News.

“It’s really up to the U.S. and China right now to get their act together and abate those industrial emissions,” Davidson said.

Producers of adipic acid and nitric acid in Europe and elsewhere have reduced nitrous oxide emissions by 99 percent or more through incineration or chemical breakdown. Installing similar pollution controls at a limited number of chemical plants in China alone could reduce greenhouse gas emissions by up to 200 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per year, according to the U.S. deputy special envoy for climate, Rick Duke. The climate impact would be similar to shutting down 50 coal-fired power plants or taking nearly 50 million cars off the road.

How a carbon central bank can turn Europe into a CO2 “eater” — Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
https://www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/latest-news/how-a-carbon-central-bank-can-turn-europe-into-a-co2-201ceater201d

Edenhofer proposes so-called clean-up certificates as a core instrument. They give the right to emit one tonne of CO2 in combination with the obligation to take back one tonne of CO2 at a specific future date. So far, the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) only offers simple emission rights, which are reduced year by year and, according to current legislation, will fall to zero in 2039. Adding clean-up certificates makes the climate transition cheaper and more flexible: CO2 emissions would not have to be avoided at all costs, even as permits become scarcer, if it is more cost-effective to emit now and remove later. The price of these certificates would reflect expected future cost reductions in carbon removal technologies. The financial risk of the climate transition would then be borne not by the state, but by the economy, which is, after all, obliged to make the removals.

...

To ensure that the idea does not fail due to physical inadequacies or corporate tricks, Edenhofer argues that it should be implemented by a strong and credible institution, and makes the case for a future “European Carbon Central Bank”. By issuing the certificates, it could oversee the quantity control of net emissions, keeping this matter out of day-to-day party politics – just as the European Central Bank does with interest rates. This important new EU authority could also correctly reflect the economic value of non-permanent removals, such as afforestation or storing CO2 in building materials, in the clean-up certificates. And to ensure that companies do not undermine their carbon removal obligation through strategic bankruptcy, they would have to deposit financial collateral with the Carbon Central Bank.

SHEFIK: Také jsem nezmínil pouze CO2, což není úplně dobré měřítko, ale naši spotřebu materiálu a energie, tam je ta korelace jasná a efektivita tento problém v systému závislém na růstu dlouhodobě neřeší. Ani bych osobně nevytahoval HDP (nebo WDP) pokud by to nebylo zmíněno, ta metrika má sice nějakou hodnotu, ale tak jak je mainstreamově používána je dost zavádějící.

Is Decoupling GDP Growth from Environmental Impact Possible?
Our model demonstrates that growth in GDP ultimately cannot plausibly be decoupled from growth in material and energy use, demonstrating categorically that GDP growth cannot be sustained indefinitely. It is therefore misleading to develop growth-oriented policy around the expectation that decoupling is possible. However, we also note that GDP has been shown to be a poor proxy for societal wellbeing, something it was never designed to measure, and GDP growth is therefore a questionable long-term societal goal in any case. The mounting costs of “uneconomic growth” [43] suggest that the pursuit of decoupling–if it were possible–in order to sustain GDP growth would be a misguided effort.

https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0164733#sec004


MINER: Článek jsem nečetl, s H. Ritchie mám už zkušenost a stačilo mi psát 5 stránkový rozbor jejího videa, které bylo plné manipulace s daty (ironicky od někoho jehož profese je "data scientist"). Takže vycházím ze zkušeností s podobnými články, kde ve zkratce pár malých zemí, které importují carbon/resource/energy-intensive produkty a kde mají tu možnost stavět ekonomiku na službách/IT/know-how.. není něco, co by dokazovalo, že je decoupling možný ve velkém meřítku a jedná se spíše o hrstku výjimek. A jak už bylo zmíněno, i samotné CO2 není v tomto případě tak dobrá metrika, je lepší se dívat po stopě co se týče materiálů/energie, nebo např. máme koncept "Ecological footprint"

‘Oh my God, what is that?’: how the maelstrom under Greenland’s glaciers could slow future sea level rise | Glaciers | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/sep/06/how-the-maelstrom-under-greenlands-glaciers-could-slow-future-sea-level-rise

current models do not take account of a big possible factor: the huge mounds of ground rock that some glaciers pile up in front of them, blocking their paths and insulating them from ever hotter oceans. These could function as “speed bumps”, effectively slowing the impact of global heating. But the role this plays is unknown because researchers had never been able to scrutinise the hellish zone where mighty glaciers, rock and ocean meet.

TERMINUS: Studying Greenland’s Underwater Glacial Walls
https://ig.utexas.edu/terminus-studying-greenlands-underwater-glacial-walls/

Tridilna serie. Cely zajmavy

From Dissipating Clouds to Record-Setting Areas of Drought, the State of the Climate in 2023 Was Shockingly Severe | Discover Magazine
https://www.discovermagazine.com/environment/from-dissipating-clouds-to-record-setting-areas-of-drought-the-state-of-the

Here in Part 3 of the series, I look at some of the other impacts, starting with one that took me surprise: In addition to being the warmest year, 2023 was also the least cloudy ever observed globally in records dating back four decades. Some areas saw particularly steep declines in cloudiness, including the Indian Ocean, the Arctic, and Northern Hemisphere.

The global average for cloud cover in 2023 was the lowest ever recorded.
...
In 2023, the report concludes that clouds reflected away to space the smallest amount of energy from the Sun ever observed. That meant more solar energy reached the surface to cause warming. But at the same time, clouds blocked the least amount of heat energy from escaping to space from the surface.

Teasing out the net effect from changes in cloudiness is complicated, because different kinds of clouds have different impacts. With that caveat in mind, the report concludes that the overall impact "was the weakest cooling effect of clouds on record." And this, in turn, reinforced 2023's shocking warmth.
...
In fact, the amount of precipitation that fell during the year was one of the lowest in records going back to 1979. At the same time, the intensity of rain that did fall increased, which can contribute to damaging deluges.

As the report points out, this is just what scientists have long expected with a warming climate.
...
Emissions of CO2 by the most advanced economies of the world have peaked and are dropping — even as economic growth continues. They're accomplishing this through efforts to use energy more efficiently, along with a massive ramp-up in renewables. And this points the way forward toward a day when we may finally tame the climate crisis.

We're nearly halfway through the 2020s, dubbed the most decisive decade for action on climate change. Where exactly do things stand? Climate impact scholar Johan Rockström offers the most up-to-date scientific assessment of the state of the planet and explains what must be done to preserve Earth's resilience to human pressure.

The Tipping Points of Climate Change — and Where We Stand | Johan Rockström | TED
https://youtu.be/Vl6VhCAeEfQ?si=_8dHaoBeB2BbrPM2

Nedávno tu téma extinkce, přelidněnosti aj. bylo diskutováno, dovolím si sdílet rozhovor s autorem publikace Coextinctions dominate future vertebrate losses from climate and land use change, kterou zde možná před pár lety někdo z vás sdílel Corey J. A. Bradshawem, který je přední odborník na globální ekologii.

Epizoda o probíhající šesté masové extinkci a dopadech lidské populace na planetu. Rozhovor se zaměřuje na to, jak lidské aktivity, jako je ničení habitatu, nadměrné využívání zdrojů, invazní druhy a klimatické změny, způsobují bezprecedentní míru vymírání druhů. Bradshaw zdůrazňuje, že i když život na Zemi bude pokračovat, lidstvo čelí temné budoucnosti se značnou ztrátou biodiverzity, což může vést k zhroucení ekosystémů, které podporují lidský život. Epizoda se také zabývá konceptem koextinkce, kdy ztráta jednoho druhu může spustit kaskádu dalších vymírání v propojených ekologických sítích. Tato epizoda je důrazným připomenutím naléhavé potřeby globálního povědomí a opatření k zmírnění zrychlující se krize biodiverzity a jejích důsledků pro lidstvo.
(sourhn skrz GPT)

Human Impact, Extinctions, and the Biodiversity Crisis with Corey Bradshaw | TGS 136
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qJwsJhFK98o

• TGS+136+Corey+Bradshaw+Transcript.pdf

Tohle je docela zajímavý

Shifting Climate Zones: Sahel might get 50 % more rain by 2040 — Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
https://www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/latest-news/shifting-climate-zones-sahel-might-get-50-more-rain-by-2040

Začíná se to naplňovat, prší stále víc a víc na sever.

Třeba příští týden


To jsou území Sahelu nebo částečně i jih Sahary co teď dostávají hodně přes 100mm deště

How climate-related extreme weather puts oil and gas assets, production at risk | Globalnews.ca
https://globalnews.ca/news/10636678/extreme-weather-oil-and-has-impact-canada/

Vlna veder ohrožuje těžbu ropných písků.

Oh no... anyway...

The Secretary General’s Report
NATO Climate Change and Security Impact Assessment

https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/2024/7/pdf/240709-Climate-Security-Impact.pdf

TUHO: Tady kdyztak summary 30 let prace Rahmstorfa na tema. Relativne kratkej clanek, hodne dat, obrazku, srozumitelny pro vetsinu lidi

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation has a major impact on climate, not just in the northern Atlantic but globally. Paleoclimatic data show it has been unstable in the past, leading to some of the most dramatic and abrupt climate shifts known. These instabilities are due to two different types of tipping points, one linked to amplifying feedbacks in the large-scale salt transport and the other in the convective mixing that drives the flow. These tipping points present a major risk of abrupt ocean circulation and climate shifts as we push our planet further out of the stable Holocene climate into uncharted waters.

Is the Atlantic Overturning Circulation Approaching a Tipping Point? | Oceanography
https://tos.org/oceanography/article/is-the-atlantic-overturning-circulation-approaching-a-tipping-point

Positivni trendy

Why more teens are rejecting drivers licenses and choosing e-bikes
https://electrek.co/2024/06/10/why-more-american-teenagers-are-rejecting-drivers-licenses-in-favor-of-e-bikes/

the number of teens with driver’s licenses has fallen by about 8% over the past two decades, according to the latest data from the Federal Highway Administration. The e-bikes also grant more independence to teens not yet old enough to drive.”
...
For many teens and their families, the cost of car ownership is a significant deterrent. From the price of the vehicle itself to insurance, fuel, and maintenance, the expenses can quickly add up.

E-bikes, on the other hand, offer a more affordable alternative. The initial purchase price is considerably lower, and operational costs are almost zero, outside of occasional new brake pads and tires. With the rising cost of living, many families find e-bikes to be a financially savvy choice.
...
Much more so than a generation ago, today’s teenagers are increasingly environmentally conscious. The impact of climate change and the importance of sustainable living are at the forefront of many teenagers’ minds.

E-bikes, with their zero emissions, offer an eco-friendly alternative to cars. Many teens feel that choosing an e-bike over a car is a tangible way to contribute to a greener planet.

James Hansen, asi není třeba představovat, dnes zveřejnil, společně s 2 spoluautory, článek.
Comments on Global Warming Acceleration, Sulfur Emissions, Observations

In this article, climate scientists James Hansen, Pushker Kharecha, and Makiko Sato discuss the acceleration of global warming. They note that global temperature continues to rise, reaching 1.56°C above pre-industrial levels as of April 2024. The authors attribute this acceleration to the decline in human-made aerosols, particularly from the shipping industry, which previously had a cooling effect on the Earth.

The reduction in aerosols, combined with the strong warming trend at middle latitudes and the switch from La Nina to El Nino conditions in the Pacific Ocean, has led to a significant temperature jump in 2023-24. The authors emphasize the importance of accurately evaluating the impact of human-made aerosols on the climate, as it has implications for understanding climate sensitivity.

They call for further research and modeling to better understand the complex interactions between aerosols, clouds, and the Earth's climate system. The authors also stress the need for continued monitoring of the Earth's radiation balance to improve our understanding of the factors driving global warming acceleration.

Link

Climate damages are "6X LARGER than previously thought", says new NBER working paper
– every 1C wipes out 12% of global GDP
– every tonne of CO2 causes >$1,000 of damages

The Macroeconomic Impact of Climate Change: Global vs. Local Temperature

A business-as-usual warming scenario leads to a present value welfare loss of 31%. Both are multiple orders of magnitude above previous estimates

___
Obecně nejsem velký fanoušek toho, jak pře-soustředění jsme na měřítko HDP oproti všemu ostatnímu, ale i v relaci k ekonomice se zdá, že ty zprávy nejsou zrovna pozitivní.

Trochu mi to připomnělo W. Nordhause a jeho publikaci, kde tvrdí, že globální prům. oteplení o +3C by znamenalo pouhý 2.1% pokles v globálním HDP, v případě +6C (!) pohých 8.5%,
poté co si on a další neoklasičtí ekonomové vymysleli "nobelovu cenu za ekonomii". Odůvodněním bylo, že většina zisku vzniká uvnitř budov, které lze klimatizovat :clown_face: