nie panimaju

"must sharply fall"



the world has moved from a safe operating space into zones of rising and high risk between 1997, 2015 and 2025. A business-as-usual path would further degrade ecosystems and strain societies. In contrast, effective overshoot management could still put the world on track for net-zero by mid-century and net-negative emissions by century’s end



Commentary: rising planetary risks after missed decade of action — Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
https://www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/latest-news/commentary-scientists-outline-rising-planetary-risks-after-missed-decade-of-action

In the commentary published in One Earth, scientists of The Earth League alliance conclude that “too little was done too late” in the last decade, from 2015 to 2025: global warming is on track to exceed 1.5°C in the coming years, with seven of nine planetary boundaries already breached. They also note that progress towards global sustainability goals is lagging: only 15 percent of the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) targets are currently on track for 2030.

TADEAS: ode mne to chce subscribe, tak kdyz tak tady
Acrucial system of ocean currents may be on course to collapse. This country just declared it a national security threat
https://www.cnn.com/2025/11/15/climate/iceland-warming-current-amoc-collapse-threat

In September, Iceland’s National Security Council designated the current’s potential collapse as a national security risk, marking the first time a climate impact has received this designation in the country.

China’s giant solar parks aren’t just changing the power mix—they may be changing the ground beneath them. Fresh field data point to cooler soils, extra moisture, and pockets of greening, though lasting ecological shifts will hinge on design and long-term care.

...

Assessment of the ecological and environmental effects of large-scale photovoltaic development in desert areas | Scientific Reports
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-024-72860-8

Photovoltaic development has played a crucial role in mitigating the energy crisis and addressing global climate change. However, it has also had significant impacts on the ecological environment. To ensure the sustainable growth of the photovoltaic industry, it is essential to establish an indicator system to assess the ecological and environmental effects of photovoltaic development. This study utilizes the Driving-Pressure–Status–Impact-Response (DPSIR) framework to create an indicator system for evaluating the ecological and environmental effects of desert photovoltaic development. The study evaluates the ecological and environmental effects at the on-site (WPS), transitional zone (TPS), and off-site (OPS) areas of the Qinghai Gonghe Photovoltaic Park in China. The entropy weight method was utilized to calculate indicator weights, while the evaluation model and indicators were transformed uniformly to obtain standardized scores for ecological and environmental effects. and conducting a thorough analysis of the distribution characteristics and factors influencing the evaluation indicators’ scores. Overall, the large-scale development of desert photovoltaics in Gonghe County has had a positive impact on the ecological environment. The WPS had better ecological and environmental conditions than did the TPS and OPS, and the ecological and environmental evaluation levels of the WPS were categorized as “general” (0.439), while the ecological and environmental effect evaluation levels of the TPS (0.286) and OPS (0.28) were both “poor”, indicating significant room for improvement. Moreover, all indicators in the scheme layer, which are used to evaluate ecological and environmental quality, yielded higher scores for the WPS than for the TPS and OPS, demonstrating that photovoltaic development has a positive effect on desert area ecology and the environment.

XCHAOS: Životnost něco mezi 1000-3000 let no, a GWP (global warming potential) v řádu 100 let 23500, v řádu 500 let 32600.. horší je snad možná jen CF4 (Tetrafluoromethan) nebo C2F6 (Hexafluoroethan) a to kvůli mnohem delší životnosti. Zatím je pouze návrh o jeho zákazu, ale to zatím myslím není odsouhlaseno a jednalo by se stejně jen o EU.

Nějaké cesty jak s tím nakládat jsou, ale žádná sláva, takže je to zatím spíše o tom zabránit úniku a bezpečně uložit, to bezpečně je dle mého pochybné, podobně jako s jaderným odpadem.
Disposal methods, health effects and emission regulations for sulfur hexafluoride and its by-products
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0304389421010712

The SF6 gas alone has no immediate impact on the environment due to its inert nature. Despite that, the staggering global warming potential it has can cause a serious problem in the long run. It is a greenhouse gas that accumulates in the atmosphere which captures the heat released from the earth’s surface and reflects it.

The disposal methods for SF6 involves the complete decomposition of the gas which is categorized into the conventional and advanced approaches. Incineration is the most common conventional method being practiced. The issues associated with cost and toxic by-products formation sparked the search and development for alternative technologies such as NTP.

Based on the literature as a whole, the only issues that are hindering the NTP techniques from maturing are the combination of power supply, additive gases, flowrates, concentrations and length of reactor that will result in the highest possible decomposition efficiency of SF6 and the removal of its toxic counterparts from being released to the environment. The experiments mainly focus on small-scale plasma systems that utilize very small volumes and flowrates.

Sulfur Hexafluoride (SF6) Basics
https://www.epa.gov/eps-partnership/sulfur-hexafluoride-sf6-basics

The most common use for and largest emission source of SF6, both domestically and internationally, is as an electrical insulator in high-voltage equipment that transmits and distributes electricity. Approximately 67% of all SF6 emissions in the United States is attributed to the electrical transmission and distribution sector in 2022 based on the Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks.

SF6-containing equipment is designed to avoid emitting any of this gas into the atmosphere. However, SF6 gas can inadvertently escape as leaks develop during various stages of the equipment's lifecycle, including manufacturing, installation, maintenance and servicing, and de-commissioning. In some cases, significant leaks can occur from aging equipment.

Several factors affect SF6 emissions from electric power systems, such as the type and age of the SF6-containing equipment (e.g., old circuit breakers can contain up to 2,000 pounds of SF6, while modern breakers usually contain less than 100 pounds) and the handling and maintenance procedures practiced by electric utilities.

Trump couldn’t get it passed... - Alt National Park Service
https://www.facebook.com/share/1CEeHbqLqw/

Trump couldn’t get it passed in his big 💩 bill, so now here are his executive orders.

Let’s break down what Trump’s new AI executive orders actually mean. On July 23, the administration issued a sweeping directive to “facilitate the rapid and efficient buildout” of AI infrastructure by, in its own words, “easing Federal regulatory burdens.” One order explicitly calls on agencies to “streamline environmental reviews and permitting” by using existing exemptions or creating new ones. In practice, that means fewer safeguards, less public input, and fast-tracked approval for massive data center construction, even on federal land.

What’s more, the administration brags that it “revokes a Biden-era Executive Order that would have saddled AI data center development … with pages of DEI and climate requirements.” This signals a wholesale retreat from environmental accountability. These data centers are notoriously energy and water intensive, using millions of gallons of water daily and consuming electricity at rates that rival entire cities. And under this new policy, they can now be built without the oversight meant to protect air quality, local ecosystems, and public health.

We’re already seeing the real-world impact. In South Memphis, particularly in Boxtown, a neighborhood long burdened by industrial pollution, residents are now facing a new threat: up to 35 unpermitted methane gas turbines powering xAI’s “Colossus” supercomputer. These turbines emit massive quantities of nitrogen oxides and formaldehyde, smog-forming and carcinogenic pollutants that have increased local ozone by 30 to 60 percent and worsened asthma rates in a community already leading the state in emergency asthma visits. Advocacy groups, including the NAACP and the Southern Environmental Law Center, issued a Clean Air Act notice, calling the site potentially “the largest industrial source of smog-forming pollutants in Memphis.” Residents report rising cases of respiratory illness, days too unhealthy to be outside, and a cancer risk four times the national average. Although local officials recently approved a turbine permit, the very next day brought a Code Orange air alert, underscoring the mounting public health crisis tied to unchecked AI development.

The orders don’t stop there. They also cancel major clean energy infrastructure, like the 4.9 billion dollar Grain Belt Express transmission line, and steer AI growth toward fossil fuels and nuclear instead of renewables. This could severely hinder U.S. climate goals and lock in decades of carbon-heavy infrastructure. Taken together, the language of these executive orders makes it crystal clear: this isn’t just about AI, it’s a full-speed deregulation plan that prioritizes corporate expansion over the health of American communities.

SHEFIK: ze vcera

Around 11 million Americans are under flood alerts Saturday evening as a "ring of fire" weather pattern continues to impact the eastern two-thirds of the country through the weekend.

A flash flood emergency was issued near the Washington, D.C., area, including suburban Maryland, such as Chevy Chase and Silver Spring until 9 p.m. ET.

Severe weather, flash flood threat impact eastern half of US - ABC News
https://abcnews.go.com/US/severe-weather-flash-flood-threat-threaten-eastern-half/story?id=123895314

Dramatic cuts in China’s air pollution drove surge in global warming | New Scientist
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2474067-dramatic-cuts-in-chinas-air-pollution-drove-surge-in-global-warming/

A recent surge in the rate of global warming has been largely driven by China’s efforts to reduce air pollution, raising questions about how air quality regulations are influencing the climate and whether we fully understand the impact of removing aerosols from the atmosphere. This extra warming, which was being masked by the aerosols, accounts for 5 per cent of global temperature increase since 1850.

Much chatter, little impact: Net zero reference slipped into German constitution - Euractiv
https://www.euractiv.com/section/eet/news/germany-climate-law-legislation/

BERLIN – As part of the deal over Germany's massive defence and infrastructure spending package, the Greens managed to write spending earmarks with a reference to climate neutrality into the country's constitution.

Champions and critics of climate action alike have been trying to play up the significance of adding in a mention of Germany's 2045 net-zero goal, although legal experts largely see the change as lacking broader legal significance.

The amendment to Article 143 of the Basic Law, Germany's constitution, allows for “a special fund with its own credit authorization for additional investments in infrastructure and for additional investments to achieve climate neutrality by 2045, with a volume of up to €500 billion.”

One line in the paragraph specifically sets aside €100 billion in an off-budget special fund for climate projects toward bringing emissions down to net zero, a goal already set down in Germany's Climate Action Act.

10 Years Since the Paris Agreement: What do the climate data show?
https://youtu.be/xOYbDRHQF7k?si=fHvG7wk5mAAmU34W


Professor Stefan Rahmstorf - Co-Head of Research Department on Earth System Analysis & Professor of Physics of the Oceans at the University of Potsdam, Germany bei Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)

ROGER_WILCO:

Climate change target of 2C is ‘dead’, says renowned climate scientist | Climate crisis | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/feb/04/climate-change-target-of-2c-is-dead-says-renowned-climate-scientist

“The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPPC) defined a scenario which gives a 50% chance to keep warming under 2C – that scenario is now impossible,” he said. “The 2C target is dead, because the global energy use is rising, and it will continue to rise.” The new analysis said global heating is likely to reach 2C by 2045, unless solar geoengineering is deployed.

...

A key focus has been on emissions from shipping. For decades, the sulphate particles produced by ships burning fuel have blocked some sunlight from reaching the Earth’s surface, suppressing temperatures. But in 2020, new anti-pollution regulations came into force, sharply cutting the level of the aerosol particles. This led to more heat from the sun reaching the surface, which scientists measure as watts a square meter (W/m2).

Hansen’s team’s estimate of the impact of this – 0.5W/m2 – is significantly higher than five other recent studies, which ranged from 0.07 to 0.15 W/m2, but would explain the anomalous heat. Hansen’s team used a top-down approach, looking at the change in the reflectivity over key parts of the ocean and ascribing that to the reductions in shipping emissions. The other studies used bottom-up approaches to estimate the increase in heat.

“Both approaches are useful and often complementary,” said Dr Gavin Schmidt, director of Nasa’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies. “But I think in this case, Hansen’s approach is too simple and doesn’t factor in changes in Chinese emissions, or internal variability.”

The new study also argues that the planet’s climate sensitivity to rising carbon emissions has been underestimated, partly because of the underestimation of the impact of reduced shipping emissions.

Jan Umsonst https://www.facebook.com/taoist.attack/posts/3422485977881946
·
A look on the Southern Ocean marine heatwaves - doesn't look good, as they are also intensifying...
Our main problem: ocean heat uptake remained even during the El Nino 2023/24 on record levels - insane the numbers of the last years!
Important for this post: During La Ninas the oceans take up much more heat than during El Ninos.
The central to eastern tropical Pacific being colder than normal during La NInas supports ocean heat uptake over the abnormal cold areas. During El Ninos the opposite happens as the oceans loose vast amounts of heat to the atmosphere during El Ninos when the central to eastern tropical Pacific is warmer than normal.
The high rates of ocean heat uptake during the triple La Nina from 2020 to 2022 are thought to be one reason behind the exceptional ocean surface warming during 2023/24. Some of the take up heat resurfaced into the upper mixed layer during 2023/24 which caused this exceptional surface warming signal. The El Nino in 2023/24 played here a large role.
Still the signal of heat resurfacing had been exceptional.
But now we have the problem that ocean heat uptake did not decline or reversed during 2023/24 when we had the last El Nino emitting vast amounts of energy into the atmosphere.
The rates of ocean heat uptake had been similar in 2023/24 to 2020-22, which should not be possible, at least not back on back...
Lets talk about numbers...
The numbers of ocean heat uptake (IAP/CAS dataset) in 2021 of 15Zj, 2022 of 19Zj, 2023 of 16Zj and 2024 of 16ZJ (1) have to be seen in relation to these numbers:
Regardless of which estimate is used, there has been a two- to three- fold increase in the rate of increase in OHC since the late 1980s. For example, according to the IAP analy- sis, the OHC trend for 1958–1985 is 3.1 ± 0.5 ZJ yr−1, and since 1986, the OHC trend is 9.2 ± 0.5 ZJ yr−1 (Fig. 2). The IAP trend within 1958–1985 of 3.1 ± 0.5 ZJ yr−1 is higher than the previous release in Cheng et al. (2023) (2.3 ± 0.5 ZJ yr−1), mainly because the new inclusion of the bottle data bias correction. After 2007, with better global coverage of ocean subsurface data, OHC uncertainty is reduced. There is a significant warming trend of 10.8 ± 1.2 ZJ yr−1 and 10.3 ± 0.8 ZJ yr−1 from 2007–2023 for IAP/CAS and NCEI/NOAA (seasonal time series), respectively (Fig. 2). The NCEI three-month OHC estimate has a slightly stronger trend than the pentadal time series from 2005 to 2020, indicating the impact of sam- pling changes associated with the mapping approach. (2)
(1) New Record Ocean Temperatures and Related Climate Indicators in 2023"; https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00376-024-3378-5
(2) "Record High Temperatures in the Ocean in 2024"; https://link.springer.com/.../10.1007/s00376-025-4541-3...
These studies are important for what happens in the oceans (read them in the order):
(1) "New Record Ocean Temperatures and Related Climate Indichttps://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00376-024-3378-5
(2) "A Glimpse into the Future: The 2023 Ocean Temperature and Sea Ice Extremes in the Context of Longer-Term Climate Change "; https://journals.ametsoc.org/.../105/3/BAMS-D-23-0209.1.xml
(3) "Record High Temperatures in the Ocean in 2024"; https://link.springer.com/.../10.1007/s00376-025-4541-3...
(4) "Quantifying the acceleration of multidecadal global sea surface warming driven by Earth's energy imbalance"; https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/adaa8a
"Drivers of the 2023 record shattering marine heat extreme in the North Atlantic"; https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-5046018/v1