ROGER_WILCO:

Climate change target of 2C is ‘dead’, says renowned climate scientist | Climate crisis | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/feb/04/climate-change-target-of-2c-is-dead-says-renowned-climate-scientist

“The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPPC) defined a scenario which gives a 50% chance to keep warming under 2C – that scenario is now impossible,” he said. “The 2C target is dead, because the global energy use is rising, and it will continue to rise.” The new analysis said global heating is likely to reach 2C by 2045, unless solar geoengineering is deployed.

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A key focus has been on emissions from shipping. For decades, the sulphate particles produced by ships burning fuel have blocked some sunlight from reaching the Earth’s surface, suppressing temperatures. But in 2020, new anti-pollution regulations came into force, sharply cutting the level of the aerosol particles. This led to more heat from the sun reaching the surface, which scientists measure as watts a square meter (W/m2).

Hansen’s team’s estimate of the impact of this – 0.5W/m2 – is significantly higher than five other recent studies, which ranged from 0.07 to 0.15 W/m2, but would explain the anomalous heat. Hansen’s team used a top-down approach, looking at the change in the reflectivity over key parts of the ocean and ascribing that to the reductions in shipping emissions. The other studies used bottom-up approaches to estimate the increase in heat.

“Both approaches are useful and often complementary,” said Dr Gavin Schmidt, director of Nasa’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies. “But I think in this case, Hansen’s approach is too simple and doesn’t factor in changes in Chinese emissions, or internal variability.”

The new study also argues that the planet’s climate sensitivity to rising carbon emissions has been underestimated, partly because of the underestimation of the impact of reduced shipping emissions.

Jan Umsonst https://www.facebook.com/taoist.attack/posts/3422485977881946
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A look on the Southern Ocean marine heatwaves - doesn't look good, as they are also intensifying...
Our main problem: ocean heat uptake remained even during the El Nino 2023/24 on record levels - insane the numbers of the last years!
Important for this post: During La Ninas the oceans take up much more heat than during El Ninos.
The central to eastern tropical Pacific being colder than normal during La NInas supports ocean heat uptake over the abnormal cold areas. During El Ninos the opposite happens as the oceans loose vast amounts of heat to the atmosphere during El Ninos when the central to eastern tropical Pacific is warmer than normal.
The high rates of ocean heat uptake during the triple La Nina from 2020 to 2022 are thought to be one reason behind the exceptional ocean surface warming during 2023/24. Some of the take up heat resurfaced into the upper mixed layer during 2023/24 which caused this exceptional surface warming signal. The El Nino in 2023/24 played here a large role.
Still the signal of heat resurfacing had been exceptional.
But now we have the problem that ocean heat uptake did not decline or reversed during 2023/24 when we had the last El Nino emitting vast amounts of energy into the atmosphere.
The rates of ocean heat uptake had been similar in 2023/24 to 2020-22, which should not be possible, at least not back on back...
Lets talk about numbers...
The numbers of ocean heat uptake (IAP/CAS dataset) in 2021 of 15Zj, 2022 of 19Zj, 2023 of 16Zj and 2024 of 16ZJ (1) have to be seen in relation to these numbers:
Regardless of which estimate is used, there has been a two- to three- fold increase in the rate of increase in OHC since the late 1980s. For example, according to the IAP analy- sis, the OHC trend for 1958–1985 is 3.1 ± 0.5 ZJ yr−1, and since 1986, the OHC trend is 9.2 ± 0.5 ZJ yr−1 (Fig. 2). The IAP trend within 1958–1985 of 3.1 ± 0.5 ZJ yr−1 is higher than the previous release in Cheng et al. (2023) (2.3 ± 0.5 ZJ yr−1), mainly because the new inclusion of the bottle data bias correction. After 2007, with better global coverage of ocean subsurface data, OHC uncertainty is reduced. There is a significant warming trend of 10.8 ± 1.2 ZJ yr−1 and 10.3 ± 0.8 ZJ yr−1 from 2007–2023 for IAP/CAS and NCEI/NOAA (seasonal time series), respectively (Fig. 2). The NCEI three-month OHC estimate has a slightly stronger trend than the pentadal time series from 2005 to 2020, indicating the impact of sam- pling changes associated with the mapping approach. (2)
(1) New Record Ocean Temperatures and Related Climate Indicators in 2023"; https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00376-024-3378-5
(2) "Record High Temperatures in the Ocean in 2024"; https://link.springer.com/.../10.1007/s00376-025-4541-3...
These studies are important for what happens in the oceans (read them in the order):
(1) "New Record Ocean Temperatures and Related Climate Indichttps://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00376-024-3378-5
(2) "A Glimpse into the Future: The 2023 Ocean Temperature and Sea Ice Extremes in the Context of Longer-Term Climate Change "; https://journals.ametsoc.org/.../105/3/BAMS-D-23-0209.1.xml
(3) "Record High Temperatures in the Ocean in 2024"; https://link.springer.com/.../10.1007/s00376-025-4541-3...
(4) "Quantifying the acceleration of multidecadal global sea surface warming driven by Earth's energy imbalance"; https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/adaa8a
"Drivers of the 2023 record shattering marine heat extreme in the North Atlantic"; https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-5046018/v1

Handful of countries responsible for climate crisis, top court told | Climate crisis | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/dec/02/handful-of-countries-responsible-for-climate-crisis-icj-court-told

Over the next two weeks, the court will hear statements from 98 nations, including wealthy developed nations with the greatest historical responsibility for the climate emergency, such as the UK and Russia, and states that have contributed very little to global greenhouse gas emissions but stand to bear the brunt of their impact, including Bangladesh and Sudan as well as Pacific island nations.

The US and China, the world’s biggest emitters, will make statements too, even though neither fully recognises the court’s authority.

Regenvanu told the court that states continued to emit vast amounts of greenhouse gases in spite of “increasingly dire warnings” from scientists, noting that emissions had increased by more than 50% since 1990.

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Wewerinke-Singh said responsible states were required to make full reparation for the injury they had caused and this must be “proportionate to historic contributions to the harm”. She said this could include monetary compensation in addition to cash committed under the UNFCCC.

‘Welfare for the rich’: how farm subsidies wrecked Europe’s landscapes | Farming | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/nov/02/farm-subsidies-wrecked-europe-environments-common-agricultural-policy

the environmental aspects of the CAP changes have not worked. The European court of auditors in 2020 found little evidence of a positive impact on biodiversity from the CAP. The European Environment Agency, in its State of Nature report in 2023, found that the EU’s farmed environment had continued to decline, with the health of only 14% of habitats and about a quarter of non-bird species classed as “good”. The CAP is also making the climate worse: about 80% of the budget goes to support carbon-intensive animal food products, according to a paper published this month in Nature.

Climatic consequences of the process of saturation of radiation absorption in gases
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666496823000456

• The impact of anthropogenic increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration on Earth's climate is analysed.
• The concept of saturation mass is introduced.
• By comparing the saturation mass of CO2 with the quantity of this gas in Earth's atmosphere, and analyzing the results of experiments and measurements, the need for continued and improved experimental work is suggested to ascertain whether additionally emitted carbon dioxide into the atmosphere is indeed a greenhouse gas.

see

Meditaerranean Sea shows climate change's impact in real time | Focus on Europe
https://youtu.be/8jV_ANDuy_4?si=NxBbEAVL69wXdwiY

XCHAOS: aka soft landing vs hard impact
A asi to má něco do sebe, hlavně z hlediska energie a s tím sjatým zemědělstvím. Oblasti, které jsou nejméně závislé na fosilních palivech budou z toho hlediska taktéž nejméně zasaženy, jak z hlediska zdroje potravy, tak i menším zásahem do jejich stylu života.

počasí

Ex-Hurricane Kirk: Potential Severe Impact for Western Europe this week
https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/hurricane-season-2024-forecast-major-storm-kirk-north-atlantic-uk-france-mk/

North Atlantic hurricane season 2024 is particularly busy with tropical systems this month, with multiple systems ongoing. One system caught our attention as it turned towards Europe—a major hurricane Kirk. It is forecast to accelerate across the North Atlantic and become an intense post-tropical storm, impacting France, the northwestern tip of Spain, and the UK.

Focus on the ‘Forgotten Greenhouse Gas’ Intensifies as All Eyes Are on the U.S. and China to Curb Pollution - Inside Climate News
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/26092024/us-and-china-greenhouse-gas-nitrous-oxide-emissions/

the United States and China, which together are responsible for approximately 80 percent of the world’s nitrous oxide emissions from the industrial sector. The emissions come primarily from the production of adipic acid, a precursor to high-strength nylon, and nitric acid, used in fertilizer production.

The nitrous oxide emissions from chemical plants in China and the U.S. were the focus of a 2020 investigation by Inside Climate News.

“It’s really up to the U.S. and China right now to get their act together and abate those industrial emissions,” Davidson said.

Producers of adipic acid and nitric acid in Europe and elsewhere have reduced nitrous oxide emissions by 99 percent or more through incineration or chemical breakdown. Installing similar pollution controls at a limited number of chemical plants in China alone could reduce greenhouse gas emissions by up to 200 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per year, according to the U.S. deputy special envoy for climate, Rick Duke. The climate impact would be similar to shutting down 50 coal-fired power plants or taking nearly 50 million cars off the road.

How a carbon central bank can turn Europe into a CO2 “eater” — Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
https://www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/latest-news/how-a-carbon-central-bank-can-turn-europe-into-a-co2-201ceater201d

Edenhofer proposes so-called clean-up certificates as a core instrument. They give the right to emit one tonne of CO2 in combination with the obligation to take back one tonne of CO2 at a specific future date. So far, the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) only offers simple emission rights, which are reduced year by year and, according to current legislation, will fall to zero in 2039. Adding clean-up certificates makes the climate transition cheaper and more flexible: CO2 emissions would not have to be avoided at all costs, even as permits become scarcer, if it is more cost-effective to emit now and remove later. The price of these certificates would reflect expected future cost reductions in carbon removal technologies. The financial risk of the climate transition would then be borne not by the state, but by the economy, which is, after all, obliged to make the removals.

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To ensure that the idea does not fail due to physical inadequacies or corporate tricks, Edenhofer argues that it should be implemented by a strong and credible institution, and makes the case for a future “European Carbon Central Bank”. By issuing the certificates, it could oversee the quantity control of net emissions, keeping this matter out of day-to-day party politics – just as the European Central Bank does with interest rates. This important new EU authority could also correctly reflect the economic value of non-permanent removals, such as afforestation or storing CO2 in building materials, in the clean-up certificates. And to ensure that companies do not undermine their carbon removal obligation through strategic bankruptcy, they would have to deposit financial collateral with the Carbon Central Bank.

SHEFIK: Také jsem nezmínil pouze CO2, což není úplně dobré měřítko, ale naši spotřebu materiálu a energie, tam je ta korelace jasná a efektivita tento problém v systému závislém na růstu dlouhodobě neřeší. Ani bych osobně nevytahoval HDP (nebo WDP) pokud by to nebylo zmíněno, ta metrika má sice nějakou hodnotu, ale tak jak je mainstreamově používána je dost zavádějící.

Is Decoupling GDP Growth from Environmental Impact Possible?
Our model demonstrates that growth in GDP ultimately cannot plausibly be decoupled from growth in material and energy use, demonstrating categorically that GDP growth cannot be sustained indefinitely. It is therefore misleading to develop growth-oriented policy around the expectation that decoupling is possible. However, we also note that GDP has been shown to be a poor proxy for societal wellbeing, something it was never designed to measure, and GDP growth is therefore a questionable long-term societal goal in any case. The mounting costs of “uneconomic growth” [43] suggest that the pursuit of decoupling–if it were possible–in order to sustain GDP growth would be a misguided effort.

https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0164733#sec004


MINER: Článek jsem nečetl, s H. Ritchie mám už zkušenost a stačilo mi psát 5 stránkový rozbor jejího videa, které bylo plné manipulace s daty (ironicky od někoho jehož profese je "data scientist"). Takže vycházím ze zkušeností s podobnými články, kde ve zkratce pár malých zemí, které importují carbon/resource/energy-intensive produkty a kde mají tu možnost stavět ekonomiku na službách/IT/know-how.. není něco, co by dokazovalo, že je decoupling možný ve velkém meřítku a jedná se spíše o hrstku výjimek. A jak už bylo zmíněno, i samotné CO2 není v tomto případě tak dobrá metrika, je lepší se dívat po stopě co se týče materiálů/energie, nebo např. máme koncept "Ecological footprint"

‘Oh my God, what is that?’: how the maelstrom under Greenland’s glaciers could slow future sea level rise | Glaciers | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/sep/06/how-the-maelstrom-under-greenlands-glaciers-could-slow-future-sea-level-rise

current models do not take account of a big possible factor: the huge mounds of ground rock that some glaciers pile up in front of them, blocking their paths and insulating them from ever hotter oceans. These could function as “speed bumps”, effectively slowing the impact of global heating. But the role this plays is unknown because researchers had never been able to scrutinise the hellish zone where mighty glaciers, rock and ocean meet.

TERMINUS: Studying Greenland’s Underwater Glacial Walls
https://ig.utexas.edu/terminus-studying-greenlands-underwater-glacial-walls/

Tridilna serie. Cely zajmavy

From Dissipating Clouds to Record-Setting Areas of Drought, the State of the Climate in 2023 Was Shockingly Severe | Discover Magazine
https://www.discovermagazine.com/environment/from-dissipating-clouds-to-record-setting-areas-of-drought-the-state-of-the

Here in Part 3 of the series, I look at some of the other impacts, starting with one that took me surprise: In addition to being the warmest year, 2023 was also the least cloudy ever observed globally in records dating back four decades. Some areas saw particularly steep declines in cloudiness, including the Indian Ocean, the Arctic, and Northern Hemisphere.

The global average for cloud cover in 2023 was the lowest ever recorded.
...
In 2023, the report concludes that clouds reflected away to space the smallest amount of energy from the Sun ever observed. That meant more solar energy reached the surface to cause warming. But at the same time, clouds blocked the least amount of heat energy from escaping to space from the surface.

Teasing out the net effect from changes in cloudiness is complicated, because different kinds of clouds have different impacts. With that caveat in mind, the report concludes that the overall impact "was the weakest cooling effect of clouds on record." And this, in turn, reinforced 2023's shocking warmth.
...
In fact, the amount of precipitation that fell during the year was one of the lowest in records going back to 1979. At the same time, the intensity of rain that did fall increased, which can contribute to damaging deluges.

As the report points out, this is just what scientists have long expected with a warming climate.
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Emissions of CO2 by the most advanced economies of the world have peaked and are dropping — even as economic growth continues. They're accomplishing this through efforts to use energy more efficiently, along with a massive ramp-up in renewables. And this points the way forward toward a day when we may finally tame the climate crisis.

We're nearly halfway through the 2020s, dubbed the most decisive decade for action on climate change. Where exactly do things stand? Climate impact scholar Johan Rockström offers the most up-to-date scientific assessment of the state of the planet and explains what must be done to preserve Earth's resilience to human pressure.

The Tipping Points of Climate Change — and Where We Stand | Johan Rockström | TED
https://youtu.be/Vl6VhCAeEfQ?si=_8dHaoBeB2BbrPM2