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    TUHOKlimaticka zmena / Thank you so much for ruining my day


    "Given the sheer enormity of climate change, it’s okay to be depressed, to grieve. But please, don’t stay there too long. Join me in pure, unadulterated, righteous anger."


    "I don’t want your hope. I don’t want you to be hopeful. I want you to panic. I want you to feel the fear I feel every day. And then I want you to act. Once you start to act, the hope is everywhere."

    "Our best scientists tell us insistently that a calamity is unfolding, that the life-support systems of the Earth are being damaged in ways that threaten our survival. Yet in the face of these facts we carry on as usual."

    “We’ve got to stop burning fossil fuels. So many aspects of life depend on fossil fuels, except for music and love and education and happiness. These things, which hardly use fossil fuels, are what we must focus on.”

    A nejde o to, že na to nemáme dostatečné technologie, ty by na řešení použít šly, ale chybí nám vůle a představivost je využít. Zůstáváme při zemi, přemýšlíme až moc rezervovaně. Technologický pokrok to sám o sobě nevyřeší. Problém jsme my, ne technologické nástroje.

    Rostouci hladiny oceanu, zmena atmosferickeho proudeni, zmeny v distribuci srazek a sucha. Zmeny karbonoveho, fosforoveho a dusikoveho cyklu, okyselovani oceanu. Jake jsou bezpecnostni rizika a jake potencialni klady dramatickych zmen fungovani zemskeho systemu?
    Ale take jak funguji masove dezinformacni kampane ropneho prumyslu a boj o verejne mineni na prahu noveho klimatickeho rezimu post-holocenu.
    rozbalit záhlaví
    CHOSIE
    CHOSIE --- ---
    Keeping the global consumption within the planetary boundaries
    The disparity in environmental impacts across different countries has been widely acknowledged1,2. However, ascertaining the specific responsibility within the complex interactions of economies and consumption groups remains a challenging endeavour3,4,5. Here, using an expenditure database that includes up to 201 consumption groups across 168 countries, we investigate the distribution of 6 environmental footprint indicators and assess the impact of specific consumption expenditures on planetary boundary transgressions. We show that 31–67% and 51–91% of the planetary boundary breaching responsibility could be attributed to the global top 10% and top 20% of consumers, respectively, from both developed and developing countries. By following an effective mitigation pathway, the global top 20% of consumers could adopt the consumption levels and patterns that have the lowest environmental impacts within their quintile, yielding a reduction of 25–53% in environmental pressure. In this scenario, actions focused solely on the food and services sectors would reduce environmental pressure enough to bring land-system change and biosphere integrity back within their respective planetary boundaries.
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-08154-w
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    SHEFIK: k hranici 2*C dle carbonbrief a IPCC:

    - The 2C threshold will likely be exceeded between 2034 and 2052 in the highest emissions scenario, with a median year of 2043.

    - In a scenario of modest mitigation – where emissions remain close to current levels – the 2C threshold would be exceeded between 2038 and 2072, with a median of 2052.

    ...

    Podle AI standford modelu pak kolem 2060 s 80% pravdepodobnosti

    AI predicts global warming will exceed 1.5 degrees in 2030s | Stanford Report
    https://news.stanford.edu/stories/2023/01/ai-predicts-global-warming-will-exceed-1-5-degrees-2030s
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    Dnesni bodnuti do jater od Martina Abela z Klimatymu AMO.

    Martin Abel
    Navigating the Metacrisis since 2019.

    You may have heard.
    🇨🇿 The Czech government succumbed to the pressure and withdrew the long-term hashtag#climate strategy from its agenda, along with the updated hashtag#necp. Both are now being rewritten to ensure that all the sharper teeth they had are pulled out.

    This is bad.

    hashtag#Czechia is 🤯 mindblowingly 🤯 one of the LARGEST per capita historical contributors to the hashtag#greenhouse effect.

    👷 It has some of the most energy-intensive industries in the EU, with energy demand still heavily reliant on hashtag#coal. Equally concerning, Czech political leadership has not, according to many critics, delivered a single major structural reform in over a decade. And recently, when sh*it really hit the fan, we were not able to save human lives from covid-related deaths or sky-rocketing energy costs. Because it would hurt some businesses.

    With THAT track record, how on Earth are we hoping to transform the entire economy, in a fast and fair manner? 🤯

    👉 As my new policy paper reveals, the coalition's ‘Climate Protection Policy’ doesn’t have the answer. It’s a disappointing case of measures so poorly designed that they can’t even credibly deliver on goals that are already considered climatologically insufficient ❗
    👁️‍🗨️ Check it out: https://lnkd.in/ekYhiqNV

    But there’s more 🥲
    Success isn’t just about implementing the right set of hashtag#mitigation measures—it’s about ensuring that these solutions truly improve people’s lives. Without a clear focus on what people actually need for a good life, there’s a real risk of wasting resources on decarbonization efforts that don’t enhance well-being. A more thoughtful approach, centered around hashtag#sufficiency, would direct resources toward hashtag#sustainable technologies that both cut hashtag#emissions and improve quality of life.

    If all of this sounds radical, don't take my word for it. Read the resources produced by IPCC, European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change, International Energy Agency (IEA) and other authorities in the field that I cite in the policy paper.
    Feel free to read, cite and share the policy paper from here: https://lnkd.in/ekYhiqNV
    Draft Climate Protection Policy is only in Czech, but you can access the English version of hashtag#necp on EC's website: https://lnkd.in/ewjsUaDZ
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Grazed perennial grasslands can match current beef production while contributing to climate mitigation and adaptation

    Jackson (2022) Agricultural & Environmental Letters
    https://acsess.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ael2.20059
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    MEERTALK June 2024 - Paul Maidowski
    https://youtu.be/UU1mpx_pTTA?si=c7dX4VcChnihpl39


    Bamboo Revolution: Social Tipping Point for Planetary Climate Migration?

    Paul Maidowski studied International Relations in Dresden, Beijing, and Boston and worked in international climate negotiations and renewable energies. He currently explores the climate mitigation potential of bamboo for future worlds with elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations.
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    YMLADRIS: Mozna te spatne chapu, ale tak imho tam dlouho jsme. Napriklad viz RCP a pozdeji SSP scenare IPCC.

    Shared Socioeconomic Pathways - Wikipedia
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shared_Socioeconomic_Pathways

    Plus IPCC ma k tomu nekolik 2 tisice stran dlouhou zpravu, to mi prijde celkem dost

    Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change
    The Working Group III report provides an updated global assessment of climate change mitigation progress and pledges, and examines the sources of global emissions. It explains developments in emission reduction and mitigation efforts, assessing the impact of national climate pledges in relation to long-term emissions goals.

    https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg3/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGIII_FullReport.pdf
    CHOSIE
    CHOSIE --- ---
    The carbon dioxide removal gap
    First, although most countries have committed to net zero targets, they still provide little information on what role CDR will play in reaching them. Within the NDCs, ambiguities and a lack of transparency lead to wide ranging assessments of not only the land use §ux and implied removals, but also overall emissions levels. These problems are even more apparent with the long-term strategies, which lack any common reporting structure and where underlying scenarios are illustrative rather than formal commitments.

    Finally, a recurring concern in the literature is that including CDR in mitigation discussions may deter near-term emissions reductions 38. States, corporations or other interest groups seeking an excuse for doing very little may exploit the fact that CDR can compensate for emissions, overplaying the quantity of removals that may be achieved at some (later) point in time. Indeed, a variety of claims and discursive strategies beyond CDR are used to excuse or delay climate action, which may help political actors resolve the tension between powerful incumbent fossil interests and increasing domestic or international calls for
    climate action.

    An over-dependence on land-based removals brings risks for land
    availability, food production and ownership rights.

    Additionally, forest carbon is vulnerable to reversal and expectations that regional sinks can be preserved in the coming decades have been challenged, highlighting the importance of policies that promote sustainable management, prevent illegal removals, and limit the impact of natural disturbances

    Aneb cesta pod 2C by znamenala 19% pokles celkových emisí GHG do roku 2030 v porovnání s rokem 2020, CDR je pouhý techno-hopium sen který napomáhá k greenwash. klimatických/emisních scénářů.

    The carbon dioxide removal gap | Nature Climate Change
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-024-01984-6

    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    38 trillion dollars in damages each year: World economy already committed to income reduction of 19 % due to climate change

    Even if CO2 emissions were to be drastically cut down starting today, the world economy is already committed to an income reduction of 19 % until 2050 due to climate change, a new study published in “Nature” finds. These damages are six times larger than the mitigation costs needed to limit global warming to two degrees. Based on empirical data from more than 1,600 regions worldwide over the past 40 years, scientists at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) assessed future impacts of changing climatic conditions on economic growth and their persistence.

    38 trillion dollars in damages each year: World economy already committed to income reduction of 19 % due to climate change — Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
    https://www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/latest-news/38-trillion-dollars-in-damages-each-year-world-economy-already-committed-to-income-reduction-of-19-due-to-climate-change
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    Energy, climate change and security: The Russian strategic conundrum

    Abstract
    Global and regional energy markets are increasingly influenced by policies aimed at climate change mitigation, with possible grave implications for major producers and exporters of fossil fuels – including Russia, which is planning further increases. This article examines the evolution of Russian official thinking on the role of climate change as a strategic factor in policymaking as expressed in key documents on security and in strategic statements made by Presidents Putin and Medvedev (2000–2020). The set of strategic statements examined in this article show surprisingly little attention to this important matter.

    https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/18793665211054518
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    Russian Industry Discourses on Climate Change

    How has Russian industry responded to climate change? Understanding industry narratives on climate change is an important element of Russia’s broader climate change discourse. This chapter focuses specifically on Russia’s largest oil and gas companies, which hold significant responsibility for the country’s GHG emissions and whose participation in global attempts to address climate change is vital. It considers how companies have conceptualised the issue of climate change, and how this links to broader narratives within Russia and internationally. The evidence indicates an emphasis on energy saving and efficiency, technology and industrial modernisation, and limited direct engagement on climate change policy and mitigation efforts. Oil and gas industry discourse on climate change is set within a market-based framework and contiguous with government policy.

    Russian Industry Discourses on Climate Change
    https://research-repository.griffith.edu.au/handle/10072/391111
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    2024 Ruminating on soil carbon: Applying current understanding to inform grazing management
    https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/gcb.17223

    Among options for atmospheric CO2 removal, sequestering soil organic carbon (SOC) via improved grazing management is a rare opportunity because it is scalable across millions of globally grazed acres, low cost, and has high technical potential. Decades of scientific research on grazing and SOC has failed to form a cohesive understanding of how grazing management affects SOC stocks and their distribution between particulate (POM) and mineral-associated organic matter (MAOM)—characterized by different formation and stabilization pathways—across different climatic contexts. As we increasingly look to grazing management for SOC sequestration on grazinglands to bolster our climate change mitigation efforts, we need a clear and collective understanding of grazing management's impact on pathways of SOC change to inform on-the-ground management decisions. We set out to review the effects of grazing management on SOC through a unified plant ecophysiology and soil biogeochemistry conceptual framework, where elements such as productivity, input quality, soil mineral capacity, and climate variables such as aridity co-govern SOC accumulation and distribution into POM and MAOM. To maximize applicability to grazingland managers, we discuss how common management levers that drive overall grazing pattern, including timing, intensity, duration, and frequency can be used to optimize mechanistic pathways of SOC sequestration. We discuss important research needs and measurement challenges, and highlight how our conceptual framework can inform more robust research with greater applicability for maximizing the use of grazing management to sequester SOC.
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    TADEAS: sry, to je nesmysl. Atribuce chain of events prvnimu triggeru vedouci k tomu nejpesimistictejsimu scenari...

    To prirovnani meteoritu vs deaths je prece immediate impact, kdezto mass rape je nejakej prenesenej efekt proudici bud z paniky (jez muze bejt zpusobena cimkoliv, nejen klimatem), popripade chudobou a z ni proudici frustrace.

    Navic kazdej kdo ma analyticko-projektovy mysleni vi, ze na risks se daji uplatnovat ruzny mitigation actions. Cimz nerikam, ze jist jidlo jen ze skleniku a houby z podzemi je nejaka idealni vize, jen chci poukazat na disconnection s mass rape.

    Prirovnal bych tenhle text k takovy demagogii, jako kdyz bych vinil ze vseho spatneho co se lidstvu prihodilo 6 africkych matek...
    JINDRICH
    JINDRICH --- ---
    ČR má mít podle EK vyšší cíl pro čistou energetiku v roce 2030. V návrhu českého klimaticko-energetického plánu nevyužíváme nás potenciál OZE.

    https://commission.europa.eu/system/files/2023-12/Factsheet_Commissions_assessment_NECP_Czechia_2023.pdf

    ✘ On renewable energy, Czechia’s draft updated NECP is missing sectoral trajectories and
    lacks a comprehensive framework of policies and measures that the country intends to adopt
    across relevant sectors.
    ✘ On research and innovation, the plan contains only general energy R&I objectives, while
    clear quantified targets for research in clean energy technologies and the corresponding
    implementation timeline are missing for 2030 and 2050.
    ✘ The draft updated NECP does not provide details on the investment needs and funding
    sources for the policies and measures proposed and addresses only partially the
    implementation of the measures included in Czechia’s RRP and those in the new REPowerEU
    chapter.
    ✘ On adaptation to climate change, the plan does not consider relevant climate
    vulnerabilities and risks, and this may put the achievement of energy and climate mitigation
    objectives at risk. Adaptation policies and measures (to address these risks and
    vulnerabilities) are not adequately described.
    ✘ On achieving a just transition, the plan lacks a comprehensive analysis of social,
    employment and skill impacts, including distributional ones, of the climate and energy
    transition and does not elaborate on concrete policies and measures to address these beyond
    coal regions.
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    YMLADRIS: Ja musim nacist, co se teda skutecne prijalo. Ten vyvoj byl dost zajimavej a dramatickej, osciloval od velkejch nadeji, po frustraci z toho, ze OPEC a Rusko to torpedujou a potopej a nakonec to vypada na dulezitej, ale stale nedostatecnej posun vpred. Podle me bysme se meli sakra zamyslet, co se vsema tema fosilnima lobbistama a petrostatama, ktery se snazej proste cestu k relativne bezpecny budoucnosti torpedovat.

    Johan Rockström
    @jrockstrom
    No, COP28 will not enable us to hold the 1.5°C limit, but yes, the result is a pivotal land-mark. It makes clear to finance, business and societies that we are now finally - 8 years behind Paris schedule - at the beginning of the end of the fossil-fuel driven world economy (1/4).

    Science called for a mitigation COP, and we got a mitigation COP, focused on fossil-fuels. The world must now act accordingly, i.e. rapidly transition away from oil, coal and gas, aiming at >40% reductions by 2030 and reaching net-zero by 2050, as recognized in the text (2/4).

    Yet, the text on transition away from fossil-fuel remains too vague, with no accountability for 2030, 2040 & 2050. No recognition that scaling CO2 removal technology needs to occur in addition to fossil-fuel phase out, to have a chance of limiting global warming to 1.5°C (3/4)

    And there is no convincing plan on how to transition away from fossil-fuels. National voluntary action alone will not do it. Collective, global action, on finance, carbon pricing, and technology exchange are also needed, at a scale vastly exceeding what is now on the table (4/4).
    SCHWEPZ
    SCHWEPZ --- ---
    Well below 2 °C: Mitigation strategies for avoiding dangerous to catastrophic climate changes

    https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1618481114

    The historic Paris Agreement calls for limiting global temperature rise to “well below 2 °C.” Because of uncertainties in emission scenarios, climate, and carbon cycle feedback, we interpret the Paris Agreement in terms of three climate risk categories and bring in considerations of low-probability (5%) high-impact (LPHI) warming in addition to the central (∼50% probability) value. The current risk category of dangerous warming is extended to more categories, which are defined by us here as follows: >1.5 °C as dangerous; >3 °C as catastrophic; and >5 °C as unknown, implying beyond catastrophic, including existential threats. With unchecked emissions, the central warming can reach the dangerous level within three decades, with the LPHI warming becoming catastrophic by 2050. We outline a three-lever strategy to limit the central warming below the dangerous level and the LPHI below the catastrophic level, both in the near term (<2050) and in the long term (2100): the carbon neutral (CN) lever to achieve zero net emissions of CO2, the super pollutant (SP) lever to mitigate short-lived climate pollutants, and the carbon extraction and sequestration (CES) lever to thin the atmospheric CO2 blanket.
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    TADEAS: We find that rapid ocean warming, at approximately triple the historical rate, is likely committed over the twenty-first century, with widespread increases in ice-shelf melting, including in regions crucial for ice-sheet stability. When internal climate variability is considered, there is no significant difference between mid-range emissions scenarios and the most ambitious targets of the Paris Agreement. These results suggest that mitigation of greenhouse gases now has limited power to prevent ocean warming that could lead to the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.

    Unavoidable future increase in West Antarctic ice-shelf melting over the twenty-first century | Nature Climate Change
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01818-x
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    2021 Three Decades of Climate Mitigation: Why Haven't We Bent the Global Emissions Curve?
    https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/full/10.1146/annurev-environ-012220-011104

    Despite three decades of political efforts and a wealth of research on the causes and catastrophic impacts of climate change, global carbon dioxide emissions have continued to rise and are 60% higher today than they were in 1990. Exploring this rise through nine thematic lenses—covering issues of climate governance, the fossil fuel industry, geopolitics, economics, mitigation modeling, energy systems, inequity, lifestyles, and social imaginaries—draws out multifaceted reasons for our collective failure to bend the global emissions curve. However, a common thread that emerges across the reviewed literature is the central role of power, manifest in many forms, from a dogmatic political-economic hegemony and influential vested interests to narrow techno-economic mindsets and ideologies of control. Synthesizing the various impediments to mitigation reveals how delivering on the commitments enshrined in the Paris Agreement now requires an urgent and unprecedented transformation away from today's carbon- and energy-intensive development paradigm
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Johan Rockström interview | Planetary boundaries, 'negative emissions', mitigation models & fairness
    https://youtu.be/lLq8e73-FAw?si=ltNE7wE4dx4_IHhz


    In this wide-ranging conversation with Kevin Anderson, recorded in Norway in March 2023, they discuss their respective views on the risks and challenges we face in delivering on our Paris climate commitments.

    CONTENTS:
    00:00 Introductions
    01:05 Outlining the planetary boundary & tipping points framework
    05:14 How long before we see tipping points occurring?
    10:00 Climate impacts this century
    17:45 Understanding the conservatism of the IPCC process
    24:20 Integrated Assessment Models: do they rely too much on CO2 removal?
    28:58 Is the promise of future 'carbon dioxide removal' undermining emission reductions?
    37:06 How ready to deploy are 'negative emissions technologies' really?
    40:39 Where is equity in Integrated Assessment Models?
    46:36 Privileged scientists in wealthy countries have framed the mitigation agenda
    49:15 Is change driven top-down or bottom-up?
    52:21 The role for citizens' assemblies in guiding mitigation policy
    56:39 Is academia biased towards the status quo, rather than real action on climate
    PER2
    PER2 --- ---
    to se tak nekdy stane...

    World will miss 1.5C : "I think most people fear that we give up on the 1.5C which I do not believe we will achieve, in fact I'm very pessimistic about achieving even 2C” 2C is locked in at this point. Thermal mitigation is required.

    World will miss 1.5C warming limit - top UK expert - BBC News
    https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-66256101
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    https://twitter.com/NB_pik/status/1653305684019101699?s=19


    Exploring risks and benefits of overshooting a 1.5 °C carbon budget over space and time - IOPscience
    https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/accd83

    Temperature targets of the Paris Agreement limit global net cumulative emissions to very tight carbon budgets. The possibility to overshoot the budget and offset near-term excess emissions by net-negative emissions is considered economically attractive as it eases near-term mitigation pressure. While potential side effects of carbon removal deployment are discussed extensively, the additional climate risks and the impacts and damages have attracted less attention. We link six models for an integrative analysis of the climatic, environmental and socio-economic consequences of temporarily overshooting a carbon budget consistent with the 1.5 °C temperature target along the cause-effect chain from emissions and carbon removals to climate risks and impact. Global climatic indicators such as CO2-concentration and mean temperature closely follow the carbon budget overshoot with mid-century peaks of 50 ppmv and 0.35 °C, respectively. Our findings highlight that investigating overshoot scenarios requires temporally and spatially differentiated analysis of climate, environmental and socioeconomic systems. We find persistent and spatially heterogeneous differences in the distribution of carbon across various pools, ocean heat content, sea-level rise as well as economic damages. Moreover, we find that key impacts, including degradation of marine ecosystem, heat wave exposure and economic damages, are more severe in equatorial areas than in higher latitudes, although absolute temperature changes being stronger in higher latitudes. The detrimental effects of a 1.5 °C warming and the additional effects due to overshoots are strongest in non-OECD countries (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development). Constraining the overshoot inflates CO2 prices, thus shifting carbon removal towards early afforestation while reducing the total cumulative deployment only slightly, while mitigation costs increase sharply in developing countries. Thus, scenarios with carbon budget overshoots can reverse global mean temperature increase but imply more persistent and geographically heterogeneous impacts. Overall, the decision about overshooting implies more severe trade-offs between mitigation and impacts in developing countries
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