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    TUHOKlimaticka zmena / If the fracturing of our once stable climate doesn’t terrify you, then you don’t fully understand it


    "Given the sheer enormity of climate change, it’s okay to be depressed, to grieve. But please, don’t stay there too long. Join me in pure, unadulterated, righteous anger."

    "I don’t want your hope. I don’t want you to be hopeful. I want you to panic. I want you to feel the fear I feel every day. And then I want you to act. Once you start to act, the hope is everywhere."

    "Our best scientists tell us insistently that a calamity is unfolding, that the life-support systems of the Earth are being damaged in ways that threaten our survival. Yet in the face of these facts we carry on as usual."

    “We’ve got to stop burning fossil fuels. So many aspects of life depend on fossil fuels, except for music and love and education and happiness. These things, which hardly use fossil fuels, are what we must focus on.”

    A nejde o to, že na to nemáme dostatečné technologie, ty by na řešení použít šly, ale chybí nám vůle a představivost je využít. Zůstáváme při zemi, přemýšlíme až moc rezervovaně. Technologický pokrok to sám o sobě nevyřeší. Problém jsme my, ne technologické nástroje.

    Rostouci hladiny oceanu, zmena atmosferickeho proudeni, zmeny v distribuci srazek a sucha. Zmeny karbonoveho, fosforoveho a dusikoveho cyklu, okyselovani oceanu. Jake jsou bezpecnostni rizika a jake potencialni klady dramatickych zmen fungovani zemskeho systemu?
    Ale take jak funguji masove dezinformacni kampane ropneho prumyslu a boj o verejne mineni na prahu noveho klimatickeho rezimu post-holocenu.
    rozbalit záhlaví
    CHOSIE
    CHOSIE --- ---
    +2
    The carbon dioxide removal gap
    First, although most countries have committed to net zero targets, they still provide little information on what role CDR will play in reaching them. Within the NDCs, ambiguities and a lack of transparency lead to wide ranging assessments of not only the land use §ux and implied removals, but also overall emissions levels. These problems are even more apparent with the long-term strategies, which lack any common reporting structure and where underlying scenarios are illustrative rather than formal commitments.

    Finally, a recurring concern in the literature is that including CDR in mitigation discussions may deter near-term emissions reductions 38. States, corporations or other interest groups seeking an excuse for doing very little may exploit the fact that CDR can compensate for emissions, overplaying the quantity of removals that may be achieved at some (later) point in time. Indeed, a variety of claims and discursive strategies beyond CDR are used to excuse or delay climate action, which may help political actors resolve the tension between powerful incumbent fossil interests and increasing domestic or international calls for
    climate action.

    An over-dependence on land-based removals brings risks for land
    availability, food production and ownership rights.

    Additionally, forest carbon is vulnerable to reversal and expectations that regional sinks can be preserved in the coming decades have been challenged, highlighting the importance of policies that promote sustainable management, prevent illegal removals, and limit the impact of natural disturbances

    Aneb cesta pod 2C by znamenala 19% pokles celkových emisí GHG do roku 2030 v porovnání s rokem 2020, CDR je pouhý techno-hopium sen který napomáhá k greenwash. klimatických/emisních scénářů.

    The carbon dioxide removal gap | Nature Climate Change
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-024-01984-6

    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    1 odpověď+5
    38 trillion dollars in damages each year: World economy already committed to income reduction of 19 % due to climate change

    Even if CO2 emissions were to be drastically cut down starting today, the world economy is already committed to an income reduction of 19 % until 2050 due to climate change, a new study published in “Nature” finds. These damages are six times larger than the mitigation costs needed to limit global warming to two degrees. Based on empirical data from more than 1,600 regions worldwide over the past 40 years, scientists at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) assessed future impacts of changing climatic conditions on economic growth and their persistence.

    38 trillion dollars in damages each year: World economy already committed to income reduction of 19 % due to climate change — Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
    https://www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/latest-news/38-trillion-dollars-in-damages-each-year-world-economy-already-committed-to-income-reduction-of-19-due-to-climate-change
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    Energy, climate change and security: The Russian strategic conundrum

    Abstract
    Global and regional energy markets are increasingly influenced by policies aimed at climate change mitigation, with possible grave implications for major producers and exporters of fossil fuels – including Russia, which is planning further increases. This article examines the evolution of Russian official thinking on the role of climate change as a strategic factor in policymaking as expressed in key documents on security and in strategic statements made by Presidents Putin and Medvedev (2000–2020). The set of strategic statements examined in this article show surprisingly little attention to this important matter.

    https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/18793665211054518
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    1 odpověď
    Russian Industry Discourses on Climate Change

    How has Russian industry responded to climate change? Understanding industry narratives on climate change is an important element of Russia’s broader climate change discourse. This chapter focuses specifically on Russia’s largest oil and gas companies, which hold significant responsibility for the country’s GHG emissions and whose participation in global attempts to address climate change is vital. It considers how companies have conceptualised the issue of climate change, and how this links to broader narratives within Russia and internationally. The evidence indicates an emphasis on energy saving and efficiency, technology and industrial modernisation, and limited direct engagement on climate change policy and mitigation efforts. Oil and gas industry discourse on climate change is set within a market-based framework and contiguous with government policy.

    Russian Industry Discourses on Climate Change
    https://research-repository.griffith.edu.au/handle/10072/391111
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    2024 Ruminating on soil carbon: Applying current understanding to inform grazing management
    https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/gcb.17223

    Among options for atmospheric CO2 removal, sequestering soil organic carbon (SOC) via improved grazing management is a rare opportunity because it is scalable across millions of globally grazed acres, low cost, and has high technical potential. Decades of scientific research on grazing and SOC has failed to form a cohesive understanding of how grazing management affects SOC stocks and their distribution between particulate (POM) and mineral-associated organic matter (MAOM)—characterized by different formation and stabilization pathways—across different climatic contexts. As we increasingly look to grazing management for SOC sequestration on grazinglands to bolster our climate change mitigation efforts, we need a clear and collective understanding of grazing management's impact on pathways of SOC change to inform on-the-ground management decisions. We set out to review the effects of grazing management on SOC through a unified plant ecophysiology and soil biogeochemistry conceptual framework, where elements such as productivity, input quality, soil mineral capacity, and climate variables such as aridity co-govern SOC accumulation and distribution into POM and MAOM. To maximize applicability to grazingland managers, we discuss how common management levers that drive overall grazing pattern, including timing, intensity, duration, and frequency can be used to optimize mechanistic pathways of SOC sequestration. We discuss important research needs and measurement challenges, and highlight how our conceptual framework can inform more robust research with greater applicability for maximizing the use of grazing management to sequester SOC.
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    1 odpověď+1
    TADEAS: sry, to je nesmysl. Atribuce chain of events prvnimu triggeru vedouci k tomu nejpesimistictejsimu scenari...

    To prirovnani meteoritu vs deaths je prece immediate impact, kdezto mass rape je nejakej prenesenej efekt proudici bud z paniky (jez muze bejt zpusobena cimkoliv, nejen klimatem), popripade chudobou a z ni proudici frustrace.

    Navic kazdej kdo ma analyticko-projektovy mysleni vi, ze na risks se daji uplatnovat ruzny mitigation actions. Cimz nerikam, ze jist jidlo jen ze skleniku a houby z podzemi je nejaka idealni vize, jen chci poukazat na disconnection s mass rape.

    Prirovnal bych tenhle text k takovy demagogii, jako kdyz bych vinil ze vseho spatneho co se lidstvu prihodilo 6 africkych matek...
    JINDRICH
    JINDRICH --- ---
    +2
    ČR má mít podle EK vyšší cíl pro čistou energetiku v roce 2030. V návrhu českého klimaticko-energetického plánu nevyužíváme nás potenciál OZE.

    https://commission.europa.eu/system/files/2023-12/Factsheet_Commissions_assessment_NECP_Czechia_2023.pdf

    ✘ On renewable energy, Czechia’s draft updated NECP is missing sectoral trajectories and
    lacks a comprehensive framework of policies and measures that the country intends to adopt
    across relevant sectors.
    ✘ On research and innovation, the plan contains only general energy R&I objectives, while
    clear quantified targets for research in clean energy technologies and the corresponding
    implementation timeline are missing for 2030 and 2050.
    ✘ The draft updated NECP does not provide details on the investment needs and funding
    sources for the policies and measures proposed and addresses only partially the
    implementation of the measures included in Czechia’s RRP and those in the new REPowerEU
    chapter.
    ✘ On adaptation to climate change, the plan does not consider relevant climate
    vulnerabilities and risks, and this may put the achievement of energy and climate mitigation
    objectives at risk. Adaptation policies and measures (to address these risks and
    vulnerabilities) are not adequately described.
    ✘ On achieving a just transition, the plan lacks a comprehensive analysis of social,
    employment and skill impacts, including distributional ones, of the climate and energy
    transition and does not elaborate on concrete policies and measures to address these beyond
    coal regions.
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    2 odpovědi+2
    YMLADRIS: Ja musim nacist, co se teda skutecne prijalo. Ten vyvoj byl dost zajimavej a dramatickej, osciloval od velkejch nadeji, po frustraci z toho, ze OPEC a Rusko to torpedujou a potopej a nakonec to vypada na dulezitej, ale stale nedostatecnej posun vpred. Podle me bysme se meli sakra zamyslet, co se vsema tema fosilnima lobbistama a petrostatama, ktery se snazej proste cestu k relativne bezpecny budoucnosti torpedovat.

    Johan Rockström
    @jrockstrom
    No, COP28 will not enable us to hold the 1.5°C limit, but yes, the result is a pivotal land-mark. It makes clear to finance, business and societies that we are now finally - 8 years behind Paris schedule - at the beginning of the end of the fossil-fuel driven world economy (1/4).

    Science called for a mitigation COP, and we got a mitigation COP, focused on fossil-fuels. The world must now act accordingly, i.e. rapidly transition away from oil, coal and gas, aiming at >40% reductions by 2030 and reaching net-zero by 2050, as recognized in the text (2/4).

    Yet, the text on transition away from fossil-fuel remains too vague, with no accountability for 2030, 2040 & 2050. No recognition that scaling CO2 removal technology needs to occur in addition to fossil-fuel phase out, to have a chance of limiting global warming to 1.5°C (3/4)

    And there is no convincing plan on how to transition away from fossil-fuels. National voluntary action alone will not do it. Collective, global action, on finance, carbon pricing, and technology exchange are also needed, at a scale vastly exceeding what is now on the table (4/4).
    SCHWEPZ
    SCHWEPZ --- ---
    +1
    Well below 2 °C: Mitigation strategies for avoiding dangerous to catastrophic climate changes

    https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1618481114

    The historic Paris Agreement calls for limiting global temperature rise to “well below 2 °C.” Because of uncertainties in emission scenarios, climate, and carbon cycle feedback, we interpret the Paris Agreement in terms of three climate risk categories and bring in considerations of low-probability (5%) high-impact (LPHI) warming in addition to the central (∼50% probability) value. The current risk category of dangerous warming is extended to more categories, which are defined by us here as follows: >1.5 °C as dangerous; >3 °C as catastrophic; and >5 °C as unknown, implying beyond catastrophic, including existential threats. With unchecked emissions, the central warming can reach the dangerous level within three decades, with the LPHI warming becoming catastrophic by 2050. We outline a three-lever strategy to limit the central warming below the dangerous level and the LPHI below the catastrophic level, both in the near term (<2050) and in the long term (2100): the carbon neutral (CN) lever to achieve zero net emissions of CO2, the super pollutant (SP) lever to mitigate short-lived climate pollutants, and the carbon extraction and sequestration (CES) lever to thin the atmospheric CO2 blanket.
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    +2
    TADEAS: We find that rapid ocean warming, at approximately triple the historical rate, is likely committed over the twenty-first century, with widespread increases in ice-shelf melting, including in regions crucial for ice-sheet stability. When internal climate variability is considered, there is no significant difference between mid-range emissions scenarios and the most ambitious targets of the Paris Agreement. These results suggest that mitigation of greenhouse gases now has limited power to prevent ocean warming that could lead to the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.

    Unavoidable future increase in West Antarctic ice-shelf melting over the twenty-first century | Nature Climate Change
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01818-x
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    2021 Three Decades of Climate Mitigation: Why Haven't We Bent the Global Emissions Curve?
    https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/full/10.1146/annurev-environ-012220-011104

    Despite three decades of political efforts and a wealth of research on the causes and catastrophic impacts of climate change, global carbon dioxide emissions have continued to rise and are 60% higher today than they were in 1990. Exploring this rise through nine thematic lenses—covering issues of climate governance, the fossil fuel industry, geopolitics, economics, mitigation modeling, energy systems, inequity, lifestyles, and social imaginaries—draws out multifaceted reasons for our collective failure to bend the global emissions curve. However, a common thread that emerges across the reviewed literature is the central role of power, manifest in many forms, from a dogmatic political-economic hegemony and influential vested interests to narrow techno-economic mindsets and ideologies of control. Synthesizing the various impediments to mitigation reveals how delivering on the commitments enshrined in the Paris Agreement now requires an urgent and unprecedented transformation away from today's carbon- and energy-intensive development paradigm
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    1 odpověď+1
    Johan Rockström interview | Planetary boundaries, 'negative emissions', mitigation models & fairness
    https://youtu.be/lLq8e73-FAw?si=ltNE7wE4dx4_IHhz


    In this wide-ranging conversation with Kevin Anderson, recorded in Norway in March 2023, they discuss their respective views on the risks and challenges we face in delivering on our Paris climate commitments.

    CONTENTS:
    00:00 Introductions
    01:05 Outlining the planetary boundary & tipping points framework
    05:14 How long before we see tipping points occurring?
    10:00 Climate impacts this century
    17:45 Understanding the conservatism of the IPCC process
    24:20 Integrated Assessment Models: do they rely too much on CO2 removal?
    28:58 Is the promise of future 'carbon dioxide removal' undermining emission reductions?
    37:06 How ready to deploy are 'negative emissions technologies' really?
    40:39 Where is equity in Integrated Assessment Models?
    46:36 Privileged scientists in wealthy countries have framed the mitigation agenda
    49:15 Is change driven top-down or bottom-up?
    52:21 The role for citizens' assemblies in guiding mitigation policy
    56:39 Is academia biased towards the status quo, rather than real action on climate
    PER2
    PER2 --- ---
    +1
    to se tak nekdy stane...

    World will miss 1.5C : "I think most people fear that we give up on the 1.5C which I do not believe we will achieve, in fact I'm very pessimistic about achieving even 2C” 2C is locked in at this point. Thermal mitigation is required.

    World will miss 1.5C warming limit - top UK expert - BBC News
    https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-66256101
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    -1
    https://twitter.com/NB_pik/status/1653305684019101699?s=19


    Exploring risks and benefits of overshooting a 1.5 °C carbon budget over space and time - IOPscience
    https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/accd83

    Temperature targets of the Paris Agreement limit global net cumulative emissions to very tight carbon budgets. The possibility to overshoot the budget and offset near-term excess emissions by net-negative emissions is considered economically attractive as it eases near-term mitigation pressure. While potential side effects of carbon removal deployment are discussed extensively, the additional climate risks and the impacts and damages have attracted less attention. We link six models for an integrative analysis of the climatic, environmental and socio-economic consequences of temporarily overshooting a carbon budget consistent with the 1.5 °C temperature target along the cause-effect chain from emissions and carbon removals to climate risks and impact. Global climatic indicators such as CO2-concentration and mean temperature closely follow the carbon budget overshoot with mid-century peaks of 50 ppmv and 0.35 °C, respectively. Our findings highlight that investigating overshoot scenarios requires temporally and spatially differentiated analysis of climate, environmental and socioeconomic systems. We find persistent and spatially heterogeneous differences in the distribution of carbon across various pools, ocean heat content, sea-level rise as well as economic damages. Moreover, we find that key impacts, including degradation of marine ecosystem, heat wave exposure and economic damages, are more severe in equatorial areas than in higher latitudes, although absolute temperature changes being stronger in higher latitudes. The detrimental effects of a 1.5 °C warming and the additional effects due to overshoots are strongest in non-OECD countries (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development). Constraining the overshoot inflates CO2 prices, thus shifting carbon removal towards early afforestation while reducing the total cumulative deployment only slightly, while mitigation costs increase sharply in developing countries. Thus, scenarios with carbon budget overshoots can reverse global mean temperature increase but imply more persistent and geographically heterogeneous impacts. Overall, the decision about overshooting implies more severe trade-offs between mitigation and impacts in developing countries
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Solar Mitigation Battleground - CounterPunch.org
    https://www.counterpunch.org/2023/03/10/solar-mitigation-battleground/

    https://twitter.com/RogerHallamCS21/status/1636370999204794368?s=19


    https://twitter.com/RogerHallamCS21/status/1636371004938420225?s=19
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    MARASAN:

    Future demand for electricity generation materials under different climate mitigation scenarios: Joule
    https://www.cell.com/joule/fulltext/S2542-4351(23)00001-6
    NJAL
    NJAL --- ---
    +1
    https://twitter.com/SonyKapoor/status/1616427224621813762
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    +1
    Loss and damage is the “third pillar” of international climate governance alongside mitigation and adaptation. When mitigation and adaptation fail, losses and damages occur. Scholars have been reacting to international political discourse centred around governing actual or potential severe losses and damages from climate change. Large gaps exist in relation to understanding the underlying power dimensions, rationalities, knowledges, and technologies of loss and damage governance and science. We draw from a Foucauldian-inspired governmentality framework to argue there is an emerging governmentality of loss and damage. We find, among other things, that root causes of loss and damage are being obscured, Western knowledge and technocratic interventions are centred, and there are colonial presupposed subjectivities of Global South victims of climate change, which are being contested by people bearing the brunt of the climate crisis. We propose future directions for critical research on climate change loss and damage.

    https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/27539687221148748#
    PER2
    PER2 --- ---
    +4
    1.5°C je pohoda, dinosauri meli mnohem vic a jak se jim darilo :p


    Ashe suggests that conservation biologists cease the empty claims about “saving the planet” with climate mitigation and start speaking truth: There is at present no plan, in any country, anywhere, on a global or national scale, to address extinctions, biodiversity crash, and habitat loss. The dismal reality is that with a green build-out, we will be saving not the complex web of life on Earth but the particular way of life of one privileged domineering species that depends for its success on a nature-ravaging network of technological marvels. Only once this truth is understood can honest decisions be made about what kind of world humanity wishes to inhabit in the age of ecological disorder


    An inconvenient misconception: Climate change is not theprincipal driver of biodiversity loss
    https://conbio.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/conl.12868

    Addressing Climate Change Will Not “Save the Planet”
    Addressing Climate Change Will Not “Save the Planet”
    https://theintercept.com/2022/12/03/climate-biodiversity-green-energy/
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    +1
    #biotech #mitigation

    Zelený zázrak. Berlínský startup pomocí mechu chrání města před zplodinami - Forbes
    https://forbes.cz/zeleny-zazrak-berlinsky-startup-pomoci-mechu-chrani-mesta-pred-zplodinami/

    Firma vyrábí světově patentované filtrační systémy vzduchu do měst. Jejich základem je obyčejný mech: rostlina se zázračnými vlastnostmi. „Mech spojený s naší technologií dokáže přefiltrovat až 80 procent škodlivin ze vzduchu a zároveň ho ochladí o několik stupňů. Zachytává především jemný prach, který se běžně usazuje v plicích i v krevním oběhu a vážně poškozuje zdraví,“ vysvětluje Simon Dierks, který má na starosti marketing.
    Kliknutím sem můžete změnit nastavení reklam