CAIDEL: no, ono je těžký předpovídat dopředu, ale jestli nás spasí očkování i když všechno půjde dobře (což se u nás nedá očekávat že by šlo), ale tady je článek z lancetu, že kterého vyplývá, že ani v UK stačit nebude.
a to moc neřeší nový mutace.
Findings
We estimate that vaccination alone is insufficient to contain the outbreak. In the absence of NPIs, even with
our most optimistic assumption that the vaccine will prevent 85% of infections, we estimate R to be 1·58 (95% credible
intervals [CI] 1·36–1·84) once all eligible adults have been offered both doses of the vaccine. Under the default uptake
scenario, removal of all NPIs once the vaccination programme is complete is predicted to lead to 21400 deaths
(95% CI 1400–55 100) due to COVID-19 for a vaccine that prevents 85% of infections, although this number increases
to 96 700 deaths (51 800–173 200) if the vaccine only prevents 60% of infections. Although vaccination substantially
reduces total deaths, it only provides partial protection for the individual; we estimate that, for the default uptake
scenario and 60% protection against infection, 48·3% (95% CI 48·1–48·5) and 16·0% (15·7–16·3) of deaths will be in
individuals who have received one or two doses of the vaccine, respectively.
Interpretation For all vaccination scenarios we investigated, our predictions highlight the risks associated with early
or rapid relaxation of NPIs. Although novel vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 offer a potential exit strategy for the
pandemic, success is highly contingent on the precise vaccine properties and population uptake, both of which need
to be carefully monitored.
https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S1473-3099%2821%2900143-2
https://t.co/eTERWBhMDl?amp=1