The Oil Drum | The European Refining Blues
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/9193

BBC News - Shortages: Is 'peak oil' idea dead?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-18353962

Transněfť: Rusko bude dodávky ropy do ČR asi dál omezovat - Patria.cz
http://www.patria.cz/zpravodajstvi/2094581/transneft-rusko-bude-dodavky-ropy-do-cr-asi-dal-omezovat.html

Navigating through a Room full of Elephants - Nate Hagens - YouTube
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=n4x_CUumdKs

Obnova Iráku mění rovnováhu sil v OPEC. Růst těžby by mohl rozvrátit systém kvót - Patria.cz
http://www.patria.cz/zpravodajstvi/2092972/obnova-iraku-meni-rovnovahu-sil-v-opec-rust-tezby-by-mohl-rozvratit-system-kvot.html

kecy jsou s y, vopičáku:)

Early Warning: 2012 Global Fuel Supply Still Flat
http://earlywarn.blogspot.cz/2012/06/2012-global-fuel-supply-still-flat.html

Na tomto materiálu MMF se podíleli i dva zaměstnanci ČNB. :-)

The Future of Oil: Geology versus Technology

"We discuss and reconcile two diametrically opposed views concerning the future of world oil production and prices. The geological view expects that physical constraints will dominate the future evolution of oil output and prices. It is supported by the fact that world oil production has plateaued since 2005 despite historically high prices, and that spare capacity has been near historic lows. The technological view of oil expects that higher oil prices must eventually have a decisive effect on oil output, by encouraging technological solutions. It is supported by the fact that high prices have, since 2003, led to upward revisions in production forecasts based on a purely geological view. We present a nonlinear econometric model of the world oil market that encompasses both views. The model performs far better than existing empirical models in forecasting oil prices and oil output out of sample. Its point forecast is for a near doubling of the real price of oil over the coming decade. The error bands are wide, and reflect sharply differing judgments on ultimately recoverable reserves, and on future price elasticities of oil demand and supply."

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2012/wp12109.pdf

VSOUKOLOHLOR: BIDAK: + http://www.aspo2012.at/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/Zittel_aspo2012.pdf

BIDAK: Cesta kam? Že to je bublina, není rozhodně jen můj názor. Ale někteří to říkali už dávno, stačí sledovat a nečíst pr články českých a amerických žumpálistů a manažerů firem.

Polsko spoléhá na plyn z břidlic, zásoby ale možná zklamou - E15.cz / zprávy
http://zpravy.e15.cz/byznys/prumysl-a-energetika/polsko-spoleha-na-plyn-z-bridlic-zasoby-ale-mozna-zklamou-774751

http://byznys.ihned.cz/zpravodajstvi-evropa/c1-56195280-rana-pro-polsko-exxon-v-zemi-nenasel-dostatecne-zasoby-bridlicoveho-plynu

BIDAK: Psal jsem dlouhodobě, takže co je za problém? A k rozkladu cen ropy jsem Tě dvakrát odkazoval na Staniforda, že jsi to nezaznamenal, nebo nečetl, není můj problém. Toto jsem tu taky dával před časem.

Nic není nemožné, ani barel ropy za 200 dolarů | EnergyBulletin
http://energybulletin.cz/?q=clanek/nic-neni-nemozne-ani-barel-ropy-za-200-dolaru

VSOUKOLOHLOR: Ještě pořád jsou podle tebe ceny na historických maximech? Já jenom, že bych v mém světě nakoupil nějakou ropu a vyvážel jí do toho tvého. :)

VSOUKOLOHLOR: Čili tvůj názor je, že břidličný plyn se bublina/slepá cesta?

Jo, tak prosím.

Exxon vycouval z Polska. A břidličný plyn je v USA tak levný, poněvadž se prodává výrazně pod cenou, poněvadž bylo polí roztěženo příliš a firmám se více vyplácí udržovat cenu než ji dočasně přerušit. Výtěžnost klesá často o více než 10% ročně.

After The Gold Rush: Conclusions
• Shale gas has compensated for decline in conventional gas production.
• Most analysts forecast that the future will be much like the present and that natural gas will be abundant and cheap for decades.
• Demand is increasing and production is beginning to decrease.
• Government is now on the natural gas band wagon: regulation & legislation will effectively mandate increased gas demand.
• Price matters and many companies are now in trouble.
• Beware of what you read and hear: the change in supply & price may occur faster than many now forecast!

After The Gold Rush: A Perspective on Future U.S. Natural Gas Supply and Price Arthur E. Berman Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.
http://www.aspo2012.at/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/Berman_aspo2012.pdf

I have, however, in previous posts, given my reasons for anticipating that the surge in both Russian production and that in the United States are at near peak, and will soon decline. Saudi Arabia’s fall will be less dramatic and a little later, but the combination does not bode well for the international supply in the next presidential term.

The big question with Saudi Arabian production has been, to date, more focused on the production from Ghawar, which at 5 mbd has been the rock on which the overall production builds. But that rock is continuously eroding under the long production periods that its different regions have seen.

The Oil Drum | Tech Talk - Current oil production and the future of Ghawar
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/9263

Tady něco pro E2E4.

Seven Myths Used To Debunk Peak Oil, Debunked By Andrew McKay
http://www.countercurrents.org/mckay060512.htm

Oil price could plunge to $50, says Credit Suisse - Telegraph
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/9329798/Oil-price-could-plunge-to-50-says-Credit-Suisse.html

Tak toto mi něco připomíná:

"Plays such as this have resulted in total U.S. oil production setting new highs ..."

Mr. Pelletier seems to have an interesting definition of "new highs" -
U.S. Field Production of Crude Oil (Thousand Barrels per Day)
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRFPUS2&f=A

Sad news for peak oil disciples | Energy | News | Financial Post
http://business.financialpost.com/2012/06/12/sad-news-for-peak-oil-disciples/?__lsa=78f5a06b

Mark Lind
‎'In addition, new oil drilling and fracking technologies are very expensive. The research we’ve read shows the cost of developing many of these unconventional oil plays requires a break-even price ranging from US$60 to US$130 per barrel, depending on the play type, which happens to be quite similar to the breakeven price for many Canadian oil sands projects.

Many of these unconventional fields also exhibit high initial decline rates to the tune of 60% to 80% in the first year alone.'

Chris Skrebowski on Peak Oil Phase 1 (2005 - ? ) - YouTube
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-8ilsTfF4r4&feature=youtu.be