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    MESKPeak Oil - zlom ropy
    VSOUKOLOHLOR
    VSOUKOLOHLOR --- ---
    1 odpověď+1
    A velmi pěkně na to reaguje Heinberg:

    Peak Denial | Energy Bulletin
    http://energybulletin.net/stories/2012-07-02/peak-denial

    ...

    The recent deluge of cornucopian triumphalism has provoked a few thoughtful responses, including, “Has Peak Oil Idea . . . Peaked?” and “Is Peak Oil Dead?”, both of which carefully sift the evidence and conclude that world oil production is better understood when viewed through the depletionist lens than through the rose-colored glasses of the Peak Oil naysayers.

    ...

    The Peak Oil debate is not a sporting event. What matters is not which side wins, but what reality awaits us. Will we see a continuing plateau in global crude oil production? How long will it last? How big a proportional contribution to total liquids production will we see from tar sands, shale, and other unconventionals? What will be the climate impact as the world’s petroleum supply is increasingly derived from lower-grade resources? And what will be the economic impact?

    We at Post Carbon Institute hope to sort out some of the technical issues related to unconventional oil in a report (forthcoming in September) by David Hughes, a follow-up to his 2011 reality check on U.S. shale gas production. But the bigger environmental and economic questions will no doubt continue to generate uncertainties for some time.

    ...

    As many peakists have been saying all along, we’ll know for sure precisely when global oil production peaks (in terms of rate of production in barrels per day) only when we can see a steady decline in the rear-view mirror. But by then it will be too late for society to prepare for the economic impacts of Peak Oil. So is the Peak Oil “movement”—not as an exercise in analysis, but as an effort to warn the world and prevent catastrophe—doomed to failure? Maybe. But by the same token so is most of, if not the entire, environmental movement. We will not substantially change our collective behavior until crisis is upon us.

    But even if we cannot avert a crisis, we can prepare some portion of the populace for the aftermath. We can build community resilience. We can seed the public conversation with information that will undermine the inevitable, reflexive effort to blame economic unraveling on handy scapegoats. Also, the future will be better if we protect at least some species, some habitat, some wild places, some water, and some topsoil before the energy-led crash of the economy, so that we have an ecological basis for ongoing existence in the absence of cars, planes, iPads, and cheap, abundant fuel.
    SCHWEPZ
    SCHWEPZ --- ---
    VSOUKOLOHLOR: paráda, díky za doplnění.
    VSOUKOLOHLOR
    VSOUKOLOHLOR --- ---
    1 odpověď+3
    SCHWEPZ: Pod článkem jsou věru pěkné komentáře, takže pro zopakování:

    Není to žádná studie
    ... je to PR exekutivce italské ropné společnosti Eni (v článku ho vtipně nazývají "americkým výzkumníkem"). Vzděláním je to ekonom, nikoliv geolog, takže jeho závěry patří spíše do říše fantazie (schválně se za domácí úkol podívejte, jaké byly prognózy IEA a CERA pro svět z roku 2000). Klíčová je tato věta z Wikipedie:

    "In the Republic of the Congo, the Italian oil company Eni have announced in May 2008 a project to develop the small oil sands deposit in order to produce 40,000 barrels per day (6,400 m3/d) in 2014"

    Čili pán je na všem osobně zainteresovaný.

    Ropné písky se samozřejmě těží, ale opět za domácí úkol si dohledejte, kolik dělá denní produkce celé Kanady - údaje z roku 2006, jsou něco přes 1,2 milionů barelů denně. Kolik spotřebuje denně Amerika? Téměř 19 miliónů barelů denně. Víc jak polovinu z toho stále dováží. Přitom kanadská produkce se nedá jen tak škálovat - písky je třeba zahřávat na vysokou teplotu, takže se na místě stavějí jaderné elektrárny...

    ... navíc proces kontaminuje karcinogeny obrovské množství vody (osm barelů vody na jeden barel ropy), která vesele uniká z povrchových nádrží, kterou ropné společnosti slíbily "snad někdy" vyčistit. Kdo na místě byl, popisuje to přesně jako Mordor z Tolkienových knih - tam, kde byl dřív les, jsou jen haldy toxické strusky a odpadu.

    Ani energetická návratnost není nijak skvělá, takže abychom zůstali na stejném čistém energetickém zisku, je nutno produkovat mnohem větší objemy (protože záleží na čistém energetickém zisku, nikoliv na absolutním objemu produkce).

    Další fantazie se týkají ropných břidlic (oil shales), které jsou označovány jako kerogen - totiž organické pozůstatky dávných živočichů a rostlin, které je však nutno zahřát na vysokou teplotu (pyrolýza), aby se z nich dala získat syntetická ropa, takže velká část ložisek ve formaci Bakken vůbec není prakticky těžitelná, protože energetické náklady by převýšily zisk (jsou to resources, nikoliv reserves).

    A jaký je celkový objem těžby v Severní Dakotě po "novém ropném boomu", jak se to v tisku nazývá? Produkce stoupla z 80 tisíc barelů denně na cca 250 tisíc, čili 1/76 americké spotřeby.

    Amerika ve své současné podobě co se ropy týká soběstačná nikdy nebude. Proto musí ropu krást v dobyvačných válkách po celém světě.
    VSOUKOLOHLOR
    VSOUKOLOHLOR --- ---
    XCHAOS:

    http://www.theoildrum.com/node/9292
    XCHAOS
    XCHAOS --- ---
    SCHWEPZ: :-) :-) :-)
    U Kanárských ostrovů se má těžit ropa. Německým cestovkám se to nelíbí | byznys.ihned.cz - Zpravodajství
    http://byznys.ihned.cz/zpravodajstvi-evropa/c1-55102160-u-kanarskych-ostrovu-se-ma-tezit-ropa-nemeckym-cestovkam-se-to-nelibi
    XCHAOS
    XCHAOS --- ---
    1 odpověď
    ...jen abychom časem nenarazili na "peak optimism"...
    Oil supply surge could risk price collapse - Harvard analysis| Reuters
    http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/06/26/oil-supply-harvard-idINDEE85P0H020120626
    SCHWEPZ
    SCHWEPZ --- ---
    2 odpovědi
    Nová ropná revoluce. Západ bude v těžbě opět soběstačný, tvrdí studie | byznys.ihned.cz - Zpravodajství
    http://byznys.ihned.cz/zpravodajstvi-cesko/c1-56373590-nova-ropna-revoluce-zapad-bude-v-tezbe-opet-sobestacny-tvrdi-studie
    VSOUKOLOHLOR
    VSOUKOLOHLOR --- ---
    Testosterone Pit - Home - Natural Gas: Where Endless Money Went to Die
    http://www.testosteronepit.com/home/2012/6/20/natural-gas-where-endless-money-went-to-die.html
    VSOUKOLOHLOR
    VSOUKOLOHLOR --- ---
    "Over the past several decades, U.S. industries have injected more than 30 trillion gallons of toxic liquid deep into the earth, using broad expanses of the nation's geology as an invisible dumping ground."

    Injection Wells: The Poison Beneath Us - ProPublica
    http://www.propublica.org/article/injection-wells-the-poison-beneath-us
    VSOUKOLOHLOR
    VSOUKOLOHLOR --- ---
    Learning from US Shale Gas Experience - Arthur Berman - YouTube
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1386Jt17myY&feature=player_embedded


    Geological Consultant Arthur Berman explains to the ASPO 2012 conference his view that the "goid rush" period of shale gas in the US is over. As Art puts it "Once you start drilling shale wells you can never stop...shale plays are not a renaissance or a revolution, this is a retirement party."
    VSOUKOLOHLOR
    VSOUKOLOHLOR --- ---
    Last week, at a public meeting, I was asked several times if this famed "peak oil" has arrived or not. People who have heard of peak oil seem to be becoming impatient, but I am afraid we'll have to wait a little longer. Peak oil is not here yet, at least if we intend it as a significant decline in the production of combustible liquids. Does that mean that the predictions based on the Hubbert model were wrong? In a sense, yes: you should know that all models are wrong by definition. Some, however, can be useful if you know how to use them. That's the case of the Hubbert model: it had given us a useful warning that, however, we chose to ignore. Let me explain this point by means of a summary
    of a talk that I gave at the conference on the future of energy organized in Basel by the Club of Rome on 16-17 october 2011. A few months have passed since I gave that talk, but things haven't changed much from then.

    ...

    We don't see a peak for the year 2000, nor we see it for 2005. If the peak had been in 2000 or 2005, we should be already seeing a significant production decline. What we see, instead, is a plateau that has been lasting for the past five years or so, interrupting the growth trend that had been the rule from 1983. So, no peak so far, but clearly "something" has been happening with oil production starting with the first decade of the 21st century, considering also the remarkable increase in oil prices of that period. But what's happening, exactly? Where is the peak? Should we expect it soon, or is it delayed for a long time?

    I think that at this point we need to pause for a moment. What is exactly a model and what can it be used for? Models come in a variety of forms: formal, informal, complex, simple, aggregated, multiparameter and more. But, no matter what model you are using, one thing that can be said is that if you think it can predict the future, I am afraid that you are going to be sorely disappointed. Complex mathematical models may not be any better than the crystal ball that is part of the toolbox of any self respecting magician. Models are no magic. Models are just tools. And, just as with any tool, you need to know how to use them, otherwise you risk to hurt yourself.

    ...

    What should we expect now? Well, we don't need a formal model to understand that the oil industry can keep extracting oil as long as there are customers able to pay for it. The problem is that, with progressive of depletion, extraction costs can only increase as we tackle more and more difficult, dirty, and remote resources. That will be continue to generate high prices. So, we'll have peak oil when we won't be able to pay these prices any longer.

    Peak oil: has it arrived? | Energy Bulletin
    http://energybulletin.net/stories/2012-06-18/peak-oil-has-it-arrived

    A komentář: It is disappointing to read an article that indicates it is discussing peak oil and shows instead a graph that includes natural gas liquids. Why not show oil plus field condensate?
    VSOUKOLOHLOR
    VSOUKOLOHLOR --- ---
    Production
    http://public.tableausoftware.com/views/BPWorldEnergyJune2012/Production
    VSOUKOLOHLOR
    VSOUKOLOHLOR --- ---
    The Oil Drum | The European Refining Blues
    http://www.theoildrum.com/node/9193
    VSOUKOLOHLOR
    VSOUKOLOHLOR --- ---
    BBC News - Shortages: Is 'peak oil' idea dead?
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-18353962
    MESK
    MESK --- ---
    Transněfť: Rusko bude dodávky ropy do ČR asi dál omezovat - Patria.cz
    http://www.patria.cz/zpravodajstvi/2094581/transneft-rusko-bude-dodavky-ropy-do-cr-asi-dal-omezovat.html
    VSOUKOLOHLOR
    VSOUKOLOHLOR --- ---
    Navigating through a Room full of Elephants - Nate Hagens - YouTube
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=n4x_CUumdKs
    BORDIGA
    BORDIGA --- ---
    Obnova Iráku mění rovnováhu sil v OPEC. Růst těžby by mohl rozvrátit systém kvót - Patria.cz
    http://www.patria.cz/zpravodajstvi/2092972/obnova-iraku-meni-rovnovahu-sil-v-opec-rust-tezby-by-mohl-rozvratit-system-kvot.html
    AIM_FREEMAN
    AIM_FREEMAN --- ---
    kecy jsou s y, vopičáku:)
    MESK
    MESK --- ---
    +1
    trochu jsem tu promazal keci, keci, kecicky...
    VSOUKOLOHLOR
    VSOUKOLOHLOR --- ---
    Early Warning: 2012 Global Fuel Supply Still Flat
    http://earlywarn.blogspot.cz/2012/06/2012-global-fuel-supply-still-flat.html
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