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    TUHOKlimaticka zmena / Thank you so much for ruining my day
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Přednáška Sucho - hrozba naší krajiny

    Co je vlastně sucho? Jak vzniká? A co může proti suchu udělat každý z nás? V přednášce odpovídá Zdeněk Žalud z Ústav výzkumu globální změny AV ČR - CzechGlobe.

    https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=2654256978188856&id=129169800432349
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    DZODZO: ok, tak to sem si spatne vylozil. o to hur, ze s celym tim lockdownem, zavrenejma fabrikama, nelitanim, odstavenejma uhlenejma elektrarnama, rekordni produkci energie ze solaru atd. mame jen 11% snizenou produkci co2 :)
    GOJATLA
    GOJATLA --- ---
    DZODZO: Nějaká data jsou tady:
    Global energy and CO2 emissions in 2020 – Global Energy Review 2020 – Analysis - IEA
    https://www.iea.org/reports/global-energy-review-2020/global-energy-and-co2-emissions-in-2020
    ...Global energy demand in the first quarter of 2020 (Q1 2020) declined by 3.8%
    ... In Q1 2020, restrictions on economic activity, as well as changes in weather, hit global coal demand hardest, pushing it down by almost 8% from Q1 2019
    ... Renewable energy demand increased by about 1.5% in Q1 2020, lifted by the additional output of new wind and solar projects that were completed over the past year. In most cases, renewables receive priority in the grid and are not asked to adjust their output to match demand, insulating them from the impacts of lower electricity demand ...
    ...Not all of the declines in demand in Q1 2020 were a result of the response to Covid‑19. The continuation of milder than average weather conditions throughout most of the Northern Hemisphere winter also pushed down demand.
    DZODZO
    DZODZO --- ---
    neviem ako si dosiel k tomu ze sme znizili emisie o 89%, take cislo v tom clanku nie je nikde spomenute, tam sa pise "This increase is 0.32ppm smaller than if there had been no lockdown – equivalent to 11% of the expected rise." t.j. mozno sme ich znizli na 89%? znizili sa hlavne emise z transportu, ale myslim si ze energetika aj napriek tomu, ze niektore vyroby sa nachvilu zastavili alebo zredukovali, tak vali nadalej

    lepsia by bola statistika kolko akej energie sme usetrili, t.j. ak by sme aj o 100% znizili dopravu a vsetko zastavili, tak stale to je len 1/10 z ostatnej produkcie CO2, chcelo by to vidiet aj ako klesla vyroba elektriny z uhlia, ked si pozriem (dostupne) data na electricitymap.org tak tie rozdiely v carbon intensity nie su zast tak rozdielne od doby pred covid, toto sa asi prejavi az s nejakym casovym odstupom, ked zacne krachovat fosilny priemysel a bude sa nahradzovat renewables, ale zatial si myslim, ze do uholnych elektrarni putuju vagony a vagony uhlia
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    DZODZO: pomuze, ale prave nezachrani, viz moje prispevky. I pres to, ze jsme snizili emise o 89% na par mesicu a predpoklada se celorocni propad ve spotrebe ropy letos, bude dopad na konci roku na co2 zanedbatelnej.
    DZODZO
    DZODZO --- ---
    SHEFIK: zachrani nas odchod od uhlia a ropy e.g. surovin, ktore po miliony rokov ticho cusali v zemi, tak ako to tam ostatne pisu:

    (2) the additional input of CO2 to the atmosphere (and hence to the system as a whole) by burning fossil fuels which have laid buried deep beneath the ground or ocean floor for millions of years
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    SHEFIK: vice mene se nepletu, z clanku:

    In other words, without the lockdown, the total amount of CO2 in the atmosphere would have increased by 0.68% in 2020, compared to the 2019 global average. But with the lockdown, we project the increase to be 0.60%.

    If global emissions reduce by 8% over the year, with the largest reduction in April, the annual minimum monthly CO2 by September will be 410.6ppm (±0.6), compared to 411.1ppm (±0.6) expected without the Covid-19 impact.

    jinymi slovy, dopad covidu je minimalni (max 8% novyho prirustku) a uskromnit se nam v budoucnu vubec nepomuze, muzeme zacit klidne zas vesele litat. zachrani nas jen CCS nebo natural sinks, temata, o kterych mluvi TADEAS apod.

    dekuju za prostor k monologu .)
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    TUHO: me to prijde naky divny, z matematickyho pohledu, nekde musi bejt chyba (mozna u me). kdyz clanek pise, ze jsme na 11% produkce co2, jakotoze:

    1) rosteme podle krivky temer stejnym tempem, kdyz bychom meli rust o 89% mene (covid 19 emissions redcution)?
    2) observed seasonal cycle je vcetne lidskyho impactu, beru to jako sumu co2, jenze
    a) jaro zaclo velmi brzo letos, (alespon v cr) vegetace uz temer v plny mire odcerpavaj co2 ze vzduchu, pricemz krivka vede v kvetnu stale nahoru
    b) z uvedeneho vyplyva, ze pokud jsem lidske emise redukoval o 89%, tak ten impact na krivku je minimalni, tedy vetsina co2 ma pricinu jinde nez antropogennim vlivem (dle tohoto grafu a dat)
    3) kdyz si vezmu podle grafu, ze za posledni rocni cyklus (od hvezd jsem nabral 3ppm) a mel bych do dalsi hvezdy rust o 89% min, mel bych narust od boku o max 0,5ppm, jenze na grafu jsem dle odhadu zase temer o 3ppm navic (modra hvezda)

    tenhle graf je imho z kratkodobyho (par let) hlediska uplne bez vypovidajici hodnoty, a to i presto, ze si to sama klade za cil, kdyz se snazi modelovat impact covidu... vychazi z dlouhodobejch dat a tim padem zkresluje kratkodobej impact
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    Američané mnohem méně jezdí auty a utlumení průmyslu i těžby způsobilo mnohem menší emise skleníkových plynů. Od doby, kdy v březnu začala platit opatření proti nemoci covid-19, se USA podle nové zprávy Road Ecology Center Kalifornské univerzity v Davisu začaly blížit splnění klimatických cílů pařížské dohody.

    Kvůli koronaviru v USA prudce klesají emise, země možná splní i pařížskou dohodu — ČT24 — Česká televize
    https://ct24.ceskatelevize.cz/...viru-v-usa-prudce-klesaji-emise-zeme-mozna-splni-i-parizskou-dohodu
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    But a key question for climate change is what impact this has had on the overall amount of CO2 in the atmosphere – the principal driver of global temperature rise. In our analysis for Carbon Brief, we assess whether the global drop in emissions will have a noticeable impact on atmospheric CO2 concentrations this year.

    Analysis: What impact will the coronavirus pandemic have on atmospheric CO2? | Carbon Brief
    https://www.carbonbrief.org/...sis-what-impact-will-the-coronavirus-pandemic-have-on-atmospheric-co2

    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Požáry na Sibiři letos začaly dříve. A už nyní hoří desetkrát víc než loni
    https://denikreferendum.cz/...ary-na-sibiri-letos-zacaly-drive-a-uz-nyni-hori-desetkrat-vic-nez-loni
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    jeste neco k reuse jadernyho odpadu. uz je nekolik reseni, tim se efektivita celyho procesu ziskavani energie z jadra vyrazne zvysuje a minimalizuje dopad na zivotni prostredi

    Team develops new way to recycle nuclear waste - Futurity
    https://www.futurity.org/...source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=nuclear-waste-recycling-2355402-2
    SHEFIK
    SHEFIK --- ---
    Recent climate models may overestimate future warming - Futurity
    https://www.futurity.org/...ce=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=climate-models-future-warming-2355302

    The researchers say that projections from one of the leading models, known as CESM2 (Community Earth System Model, version 2), are not supported by geological evidence from a previous warming period roughly 50 million years ago.

    The researchers used the CESM2 model to simulate temperatures during the Early Eocene, a time when rainforests thrived in the tropics of the New World, according to fossil evidence.

    But the CESM2 model projected Early Eocene land temperatures exceeding 55 degrees Celsius (131 degrees F) in the tropics, which is much higher than the temperature tolerance of plant photosynthesis—conflicting with the fossil evidence. On average across the globe, the model projected surface temperatures at least 6 degrees C (11 degrees F) warmer than estimates based on geological evidence.
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    DZODZO: Jj, rejected energy jsou ztraty
    DZODZO
    DZODZO --- ---
    TUHO: rejected energy sa tu mysli odpadne teplo? iba tak hadam vzhladom na to aka cast pochadza z transportation
    KEB
    KEB --- ---
    TADEAS: předpokládám, že ten Tadeáš zmíněný v textu je tvoje maličkost, že jo? :-)
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    František Marčík: Klimatické odpustky aneb Jak spolehlivě smazat vlastní uhlíkovou stopu? - Ekolist.cz
    https://ekolist.cz/...-marcik-klimaticke-odpustky-aneb-jak-spolehlive-smazat-vlastni-uhlikovou-stopu

    vc biouhlu .)
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Sci-Hub | A half century of Holistic Management: what does the evidence reveal? Agriculture and Human Values | 10.1007/s10460-020-10016-w
    https://www.sci-hub.tw/10.1007/s10460-020-10016-w
    https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10460-020-10016-w

    Holistic Management (HM) is a decision-making framework based on triple bottom line thinking and a proactive approach to managing complexity. Primarily associated with an approach to managing livestock, it has spurred long running and still unresolved debates in rangeland ecology and management. Less studied are the social, cultural, and psychological aspects of HM, which may hold the key to successful ecological outcomes. In this article, we describe the main tenets of HM as conceived by wildlife biologist Allan Savory and address the longstanding and unresolved controversy over its legitimacy. We then provide a meta-analysis that not only provides an up-to-date review of the multidisciplinary evidence and ongoing arguments about HM, but also provides a novel explanation for the controversy—that it is grounded in epistemic differences between disciplines associated with agricultural science that rule out any chance of resolution. We conclude that the way to resolve the controversy over HM is to research, in partnership with ranchers, rangeland social-ecological systems in more holistic, integrated ways. This can account for the full range of human experience, co-produce new knowledge, and contribute to social-ecological transformation.
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