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    TUHOKlimaticka zmena / Thank you so much for ruining my day


    "Given the sheer enormity of climate change, it’s okay to be depressed, to grieve. But please, don’t stay there too long. Join me in pure, unadulterated, righteous anger."


    "I don’t want your hope. I don’t want you to be hopeful. I want you to panic. I want you to feel the fear I feel every day. And then I want you to act. Once you start to act, the hope is everywhere."

    "Our best scientists tell us insistently that a calamity is unfolding, that the life-support systems of the Earth are being damaged in ways that threaten our survival. Yet in the face of these facts we carry on as usual."

    “We’ve got to stop burning fossil fuels. So many aspects of life depend on fossil fuels, except for music and love and education and happiness. These things, which hardly use fossil fuels, are what we must focus on.”

    A nejde o to, že na to nemáme dostatečné technologie, ty by na řešení použít šly, ale chybí nám vůle a představivost je využít. Zůstáváme při zemi, přemýšlíme až moc rezervovaně. Technologický pokrok to sám o sobě nevyřeší. Problém jsme my, ne technologické nástroje.

    Rostouci hladiny oceanu, zmena atmosferickeho proudeni, zmeny v distribuci srazek a sucha. Zmeny karbonoveho, fosforoveho a dusikoveho cyklu, okyselovani oceanu. Jake jsou bezpecnostni rizika a jake potencialni klady dramatickych zmen fungovani zemskeho systemu?
    Ale take jak funguji masove dezinformacni kampane ropneho prumyslu a boj o verejne mineni na prahu noveho klimatickeho rezimu post-holocenu.
    rozbalit záhlaví
    XCHAOS
    XCHAOS --- ---
    LINKOS: Právě, že vím: max. výkon bude skutečně poloviční, ale taky po zhruba poloviční dobu. Ovšem pouze za předpokladu jasných slunečních dní, který uprostřed zimy, hmm, nebývá zrovna moc často splněn.

    Suma sumárum: fotovoltaika je cool, ale ne v zimě. Uvažovat se dá o věcech, jako sezónní průmysl, který by vyráběl jen v létě, aby se přebytky elektrické energie využily. Já si umím představit _hodně_ jinou civilizaci, než je ta dnešní, to si nemysli. Ale problém je prostě topná sezóna. Pokud nechceme jaderné elektrárny, potřebuje místo nich sezóní úložiště...
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    LINKOS: tady to [ FLEXXO @ Klimaticka zmena // OK, doomer ] trochu rozebiral a ja jsem na to odpovedel, ze podle realnejch dat z nejakejch dvou fve (nekolik MW) v jiznich cech je ta produkce listopad-leden cca na desetine, pripadne muzu dosehnat tabulku za poslednich cca 10 let, ten tvuj priklad je z nejaky simulace.
    LINKOS
    LINKOS --- ---
    XCHAOS: tak když ani nevíš kolik to dá, jak můžeš dělat nějaký závěry
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    The Climate & Ecological Emergency Bill | Extinction Rebellion UK
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LPhAwYV0vM4
    XCHAOS
    XCHAOS --- ---
    LINKOS: takhle, o nutnosti zastavení (letního) exportu elektřiny z uhlí se nebudu hádat. Ale vzhledem k volnému trhu s elektřinou v EU je to těžké. Polostátnímu ČEZu mohla vláda snad něco nařídit, ale odprodaným elektrárnám těžko. Leda snad zdražit povolenky na těžbu uhlí...

    Fotovoltaika v zimě ale rozhodně nevystačí, bohužel. Stačí se podívat na jakékoliv statistiky, ten rozdíl je dramatický.
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    TADEAS:

    Arctic ice loss is worrying, but the giant stirring in the South could be even worse
    https://theconversation.com/...rrying-but-the-giant-stirring-in-the-south-could-be-even-worse-119822

    Almost all (around 93%) of the extra heat human activities have caused to accumulate on Earth since the Industrial Revolution lies within the ocean. And a large majority of this has been taken into the depths of the Southern Ocean. It is thought that this effect could delay the start of significant warming over much of Antarctica for a century or more.

    However, the Antarctic ice sheet has a weak underbelly. In some places the ice sheet sits on ground that is below sea level. This puts the ice sheet in direct contact with warm ocean waters that are very effective at melting ice and destabilising the ice sheet.

    Scientists have long been worried about the potential weakness of ice in West Antarctica because of its deep interface with the ocean. This concern was flagged in the first report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) way back in 1990, although it was also thought that substantial ice loss from Antarctica wouldn’t be seen this century. Since 1992 satellites have been monitoring the status of the Antarctic ice sheet and we now know that not only is ice loss already underway, it is also vanishing at an accelerating rate.

    The latest estimates indicate that 25% of the West Antarctic ice sheet is now unstable, and that Antarctic ice loss has increased five-fold over the past 25 years. These are remarkable numbers, bearing in mind that more than 4 metres of global sea-level rise are locked up in the West Antarctic alone.
    YMLADRIS
    YMLADRIS --- ---
    TADEAS: je to fakt komik
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    TADEAS:

    Climate scientists: the Arctic is currently experiencing an abrupt climate change event and summer sea ice looks set to vanish by 2035. Most of us fully expect global warming of 2.5 - 4.5°C.

    Media: we could still avoid warming of 1.5°C by 2100. Arctic sea ice? Never heard of it.

    https://twitter.com/ClimateBen/status/1283078208615780353?s=19
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    In just 15 years, the Arctic Ocean may be ice-free in summer, study says - CBS News
    https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/arctic-ocean-climate-change-ice-free-15-years/

    Just 15 years from now, the Arctic Ocean may be functionally ice-free for part of the year, a new study has found. Research published Monday in the journal Nature Climate Change projects that due to vanishing sea ice, the Arctic may start seeing an ice-free period each year as early as 2035.

    "This should be of huge concern to Arctic communities and climate scientists," the study says.

    It's one of the most aggressive timelines for this threshold to be reached and, if correct, is one of the more direct signs that humans are warming the Earth's climate at an even more dramatic pace than expected.

    ...

    The team attributes the model's improved ability to simulate the Arctic climate partly to a better ability to duplicate melt ponds on sea ice. The more melt ponds form on top of ice, the darker the surface of the ice becomes, and in turn, more heat is absorbed. That accelerates Arctic warming and sea ice melt.

    The team notes that their findings of an ice-free Arctic, and how the ice-free conditions developed during the last interglacial, may unravel the long-standing puzzle of why the Arctic was able to get so warm 125,000 years ago, and also supports a fast retreat of future Arctic summer sea ice.

    While climate scientists agree the retreat will be fast, some are skeptical of the accelerated 2035 forecast. That's because the HadGEM3 climate model simulates more warming than the vast majority of other recently upgraded models.


    Sea-ice-free Arctic during the Last Interglacial supports fast future loss
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0865-2

    dl: https://www.nature.com/...vgK5D42KXjApxlJ9DxFNYGDGpXAQ7KKf9w%3D%3D&tracking_referrer=www.cbsnews.com

    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Brazil experiences worst start to Amazon fire season for 10 years | Deforestation | The Guardian
    https://amp.theguardian.com/.../13/brazil-experiences-worst-start-to-amazon-fire-season-for-10-years

    the Amazon has seen the worst start to the fire season in a decade, with 10,136 fires spotted in the first 10 days of August, a 17% rise on last year.

    Analysis of Brazilian government figures by Greenpeace showed fires increasing by 81% in federal reserves compared with the same period last year. Coming a year after soaring Amazon fires caused an international crisis, the new figures raised fears this year’s fire season could be even worse than last year’s.

    “This is the direct result of this government’s lack of an environment policy,” said Romulo Batista, senior forest campaigner for Greenpeace Brasil. “We had more fires than last year.”

    ...

    “This story that the Amazon is going up in flames is a lie and we must combat it with true numbers,” Bolsonaro said, according to Reuters
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Dead Zones: Industrial Agriculture versus Ocean Life
    https://climateandcapitalism.com/2020/08/12/dead-zones-industrial-agriculture-versus-ocean-life/

    The dead zone in the Baltic Sea is larger and in many ways more destructive than the one in the Gulf of Mexico. In 2007, the nine nations that surround the sea adopted an Action Plan “to achieve a Baltic Sea in good environmental status by 2021,” including elimination of eutrophication. They agreed: “By 2010 to halt the degradation of threatened and/or declining marine biotopes/habitats in the Baltic Sea, and by 2021 to ensure that threatened and/or declining marine biotopes/habitats in the Baltic Sea have largely recovered.”[18]

    In 2018, with only three years left to achieve those ambitious goals, a scorecard published by WWF found that “all nine Baltic Sea countries have failed to make good progress,” and that “eutrophication status of most parts of the Baltic Sea remains poor and even deteriorating in some sub-basins.” The overall results were “bleak and unsatisfactory.”[19]

    In WWF’s view, “the Baltic Sea environment remains in a critical state due to lack of efficient delivery of measures and management.” But what their study actually reveals is unwillingness to challenge an agricultural system that, as sociologist Philip McMichael puts it, “is ultimately about combining commodified inputs (seeds, fertilizer, antibiotics, privately-owned genetic materials, pesticides and so on) with land or water or factory farms to produce outputs as ingredients of processed commodities to fuel labor or machinery, without regard for social or ecological consequence.”[20]

    Unless fundamental changes are made to the agro-industrial system that rules today, coastal dead zones will continue to grow and multiply
    KEB
    KEB --- ---
    SHEFIK: tohle v angličtině nedám, nechceš z toho udělat krátký výtah pro tupce?
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    The IPCC scenarios are clear that, without speculative negative emissions schemes on a mass scale, the only way to keep global warming under 1.5C or 2C is for high-income nations to adopt degrowth strategies.

    It's remarkable that this fact gets so little attention.

    https://twitter.com/jasonhickel/status/1294293822013181955?s=19


    2019 Is Green Growth Possible?
    https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13563467.2019.1598964

    The notion of green growth has emerged as a dominant policy response to climate change and ecological breakdown. Green growth theory asserts that continued economic expansion is compatible with our planet’s ecology, as technological change and substitution will allow us to absolutely decouple GDP growth from resource use and carbon emissions. This claim is now assumed in national and international policy, including in the Sustainable Development Goals. But empirical evidence on resource use and carbon emissions does not support green growth theory. Examining relevant studies on historical trends and model-based projections, we find that: (1) there is no empirical evidence that absolute decoupling from resource use can be achieved on a global scale against a background of continued economic growth, and (2) absolute decoupling from carbon emissions is highly unlikely to be achieved at a rate rapid enough to prevent global warming over 1.5°C or 2°C, even under optimistic policy conditions. We conclude that green growth is likely to be a misguided objective, and that policymakers need to look toward alternative strategies.
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Climate Monitoring | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)
    https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/climate-monitoring/
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Antarctica:

    1. melting is accelerating
    2. record melt of 15%: Dec 2019
    3. hottest day ever 18.3°C: Feb 2020
    4. irreversible collapse has begun
    5. rapid deglaciation of West Antarctica set to begin by 2027 with staggering consequences for humanity
    6. sea level rise chaos by 2035

    https://twitter.com/ClimateBen/status/1225740144000536576/photo/1
    https://t.co/eGAaQauOXn
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Global ocean heat content now updated through June 2020

    [Data (anomalies) & methods from @NOAANCEIocngeo: https://t.co/kO4F7zMlFs] https://t.co/Xbv1TdZQJ3

    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Video: Covid-19 Will Be Just 'One of Many' New Infectious Diseases Spilling Over From Animals to Humans | InsideClimate News
    https://insideclimatenews.org/news/12082020/zoonotic-diseases-coronavirus-climate-change-video

    "When human and animal populations are both stressed, if that's from disease, from lack of food, from crowding and from changing living conditions and ecology that's related to a changing climate," Akselrod said, "that kind of puts us and them together in a pressure cooker environment as far as disease transmission is concerned."

    Because globalization has increased international trade and travel, it's also far easier for diseases from wild animals to spread quickly around the globe.

    "We are disrupting wild ecosystems at a scale far beyond anything that we have ever done, and we are traveling more quickly" said Quammen. "So when a new virus gets into a human population in some remote corner of the world, it doesn't stay there as an obscure affliction of the people in that village. In more cases than not, it gets to a town, it gets to an airport. And in some cases it gets around the world."

    He added, "So the spillovers that happen are happening probably with greater frequency, but they're also more likely to turn into big events than ever before."
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    This is an excellent animation depicting the threat posed by Antarctica's Thwaites glacier, which is the about the size of Florida and could be the most dangerous glacier in the world.

    Why scientists are so worried about this glacier
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XRUxTFWWWdY
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    TUHO:

    Canada's last intact ice shelf collapses into the sea
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iAXKN3y4SYs



    A Swiss glacier’s stunning collapse was caught on camera https://t.co/ddYNqa2H8w
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Melting arctic ice fuels climate change and extreme weather events | DW News
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hjhj7lEVFZU
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    A discussion of Transformative Adaptation: a way forward for the 2020s
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=msvHevicz24


    Rupert Read in conversation with Ronan Harrington: Where does Extinction Rebellion go from here?
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1KqZAsi3w4c
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Seven top oil firms downgrade assets by $87bn in nine months | Business | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/...20/aug/14/seven-top-oil-firms-downgrade-assets-by-87bn-in-nine-months

    Analysis by the climate finance thinktank Carbon Tracker shows that in the last three month alone, companies including Royal Dutch Shell, BP, Total, Chevron, Repsol, Eni and Equinor have reported downgrades on the value of their assets totalling almost $55bn.

    The oil valuation impairments began at the end of last year in response to growing political support for transition from fossil fuels to cleaner energy sources, and they have accelerated as the pandemic has taken its toll on the oil industry.

    Lockdowns have triggered the sharpest collapse in demand for fossil fuels in 25 years, causing energy commodity markets to crash to historic lows.

    The oil market collapse, which reached its nadir in April, has forced companies to reassess their expectations for prices in the coming years.

    BP has cut its oil forecasts by almost a third, to an average of $55 a barrel between 2020 and 2050, while Shell has cut its forecasts from $60 a barrel to an average of $35 a barrel this year, rising to $40 next year, $50 in 2022 and $60 from 2023.
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