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    TUHOKlimaticka zmena / Thank you so much for ruining my day


    "Given the sheer enormity of climate change, it’s okay to be depressed, to grieve. But please, don’t stay there too long. Join me in pure, unadulterated, righteous anger."


    "I don’t want your hope. I don’t want you to be hopeful. I want you to panic. I want you to feel the fear I feel every day. And then I want you to act. Once you start to act, the hope is everywhere."

    "Our best scientists tell us insistently that a calamity is unfolding, that the life-support systems of the Earth are being damaged in ways that threaten our survival. Yet in the face of these facts we carry on as usual."

    “We’ve got to stop burning fossil fuels. So many aspects of life depend on fossil fuels, except for music and love and education and happiness. These things, which hardly use fossil fuels, are what we must focus on.”

    A nejde o to, že na to nemáme dostatečné technologie, ty by na řešení použít šly, ale chybí nám vůle a představivost je využít. Zůstáváme při zemi, přemýšlíme až moc rezervovaně. Technologický pokrok to sám o sobě nevyřeší. Problém jsme my, ne technologické nástroje.

    Rostouci hladiny oceanu, zmena atmosferickeho proudeni, zmeny v distribuci srazek a sucha. Zmeny karbonoveho, fosforoveho a dusikoveho cyklu, okyselovani oceanu. Jake jsou bezpecnostni rizika a jake potencialni klady dramatickych zmen fungovani zemskeho systemu?
    Ale take jak funguji masove dezinformacni kampane ropneho prumyslu a boj o verejne mineni na prahu noveho klimatickeho rezimu post-holocenu.
    rozbalit záhlaví
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    PETER_PAN: Zajimavy, dik!
    PETER_PAN
    PETER_PAN --- ---
    TUHO: Rozjet vyrobu dusicnanu amonneho prakticky ze vzduchu (viz. zde: [ PETER_PAN @ 3. světová válka aneb kam náš svět směřuje? Status: 2020 ] ) je otazka jednotek mesicu - kdyz to bude problem narodni/potravinove bezpecnosti.

    Dusik i kyslik si navic muzeme generovat nejen frakcni destilaci, ale i membranovou separaci (skalovatelne od jednotek litru za minutu az po tisice).

    Amoniak se v evrope pokud vim stale vyrabi.

    Oxidace amoniaku musi jit rozjet v nejakem "valecnem" rezimu v jednotkach mesicu. Jak mas oxid dusičitý, tak ten s peroxidem vodiku da kyselinu dusicnou. Ta se neutralizuje dalsim molarnim ekvivalentem amoniaku a je pak ochladit a krystalizovat. Pak se do toho prida vapenec/dolomit a je hotovo. Bez reziduji, necistot, tezkych kovu a toho vseho co bylo v hnojivejch v 70. letech za komancu.
    TUHO
    TUHO --- ---
    Lehce sice ot, ale myslim, ze stejne stoji za precteni ...


    Potravinová produkce podle něj může být ohrožena i u nás: „Zhruba 60 procent výnosu u obilovin je dáno minerálním hnojením, zvláště dusíkem. Když toto hnojení přerušíte, máte o 60 procent výnosu méně. Takže jen přerušení dodávky hnojiv se rovná hladomor ze dne na den.“
    „A to se může velmi snadno stát. Když dojde k promoření nějakého velkého provozu v továrně, tak vznikne nedostatek hnojiv. Spousta továren je v Číně, takže jsme na ní závislí. Proto by Evropská unie měl přehodnotit politiku přesouvání výrob do Číny,“ nabádá Hejcman.

    Stačí, když továrny přestanou dodávat hnojiva, a máme v Česku hladomor ze dne na den, varuje expert | Plus
    https://plus.rozhlas.cz/...varny-prestanou-dodavat-hnojiva-a-mame-v-cesku-hladomor-ze-dne-na-8269305
    LINKOS
    LINKOS --- ---
    PETER_PAN: no, mě ani nejde o to jestli je to 20,25,nebo 30%. Mě jde o to, že to zakládá na dohadech. Odhaduju, že tohle ubere tolik, tohle by mohlo ubrat tolik a vyjde mi tohle. Oproti tomu postavím reálně změřená čísla a opět zas dostanu nějaké odhad a dojem.
    PETER_PAN
    PETER_PAN --- ---
    LINKOS: Hele v te zime je to proste min nez tech 25% co v leta. Verim ze budou existovat oblasti se specifickou distribuci oblacnosti (nizka, stredni, vysoka) a bude to relativne OK.
    LINKOS
    LINKOS --- ---
    XCHAOS: obtěžoval ses otevřít ten odkaz kde byli REÁLNÉ výkony? Ne jakože kdyby svítilo, jakože kdyby to, a kdyby to...
    XCHAOS
    XCHAOS --- ---
    LINKOS: Právě, že vím: max. výkon bude skutečně poloviční, ale taky po zhruba poloviční dobu. Ovšem pouze za předpokladu jasných slunečních dní, který uprostřed zimy, hmm, nebývá zrovna moc často splněn.

    Suma sumárum: fotovoltaika je cool, ale ne v zimě. Uvažovat se dá o věcech, jako sezónní průmysl, který by vyráběl jen v létě, aby se přebytky elektrické energie využily. Já si umím představit _hodně_ jinou civilizaci, než je ta dnešní, to si nemysli. Ale problém je prostě topná sezóna. Pokud nechceme jaderné elektrárny, potřebuje místo nich sezóní úložiště...
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    LINKOS: tady to [ FLEXXO @ Klimaticka zmena // OK, doomer ] trochu rozebiral a ja jsem na to odpovedel, ze podle realnejch dat z nejakejch dvou fve (nekolik MW) v jiznich cech je ta produkce listopad-leden cca na desetine, pripadne muzu dosehnat tabulku za poslednich cca 10 let, ten tvuj priklad je z nejaky simulace.
    LINKOS
    LINKOS --- ---
    XCHAOS: tak když ani nevíš kolik to dá, jak můžeš dělat nějaký závěry
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    The Climate & Ecological Emergency Bill | Extinction Rebellion UK
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LPhAwYV0vM4
    XCHAOS
    XCHAOS --- ---
    LINKOS: takhle, o nutnosti zastavení (letního) exportu elektřiny z uhlí se nebudu hádat. Ale vzhledem k volnému trhu s elektřinou v EU je to těžké. Polostátnímu ČEZu mohla vláda snad něco nařídit, ale odprodaným elektrárnám těžko. Leda snad zdražit povolenky na těžbu uhlí...

    Fotovoltaika v zimě ale rozhodně nevystačí, bohužel. Stačí se podívat na jakékoliv statistiky, ten rozdíl je dramatický.
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    TADEAS:

    Arctic ice loss is worrying, but the giant stirring in the South could be even worse
    https://theconversation.com/...rrying-but-the-giant-stirring-in-the-south-could-be-even-worse-119822

    Almost all (around 93%) of the extra heat human activities have caused to accumulate on Earth since the Industrial Revolution lies within the ocean. And a large majority of this has been taken into the depths of the Southern Ocean. It is thought that this effect could delay the start of significant warming over much of Antarctica for a century or more.

    However, the Antarctic ice sheet has a weak underbelly. In some places the ice sheet sits on ground that is below sea level. This puts the ice sheet in direct contact with warm ocean waters that are very effective at melting ice and destabilising the ice sheet.

    Scientists have long been worried about the potential weakness of ice in West Antarctica because of its deep interface with the ocean. This concern was flagged in the first report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) way back in 1990, although it was also thought that substantial ice loss from Antarctica wouldn’t be seen this century. Since 1992 satellites have been monitoring the status of the Antarctic ice sheet and we now know that not only is ice loss already underway, it is also vanishing at an accelerating rate.

    The latest estimates indicate that 25% of the West Antarctic ice sheet is now unstable, and that Antarctic ice loss has increased five-fold over the past 25 years. These are remarkable numbers, bearing in mind that more than 4 metres of global sea-level rise are locked up in the West Antarctic alone.
    YMLADRIS
    YMLADRIS --- ---
    TADEAS: je to fakt komik
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    TADEAS:

    Climate scientists: the Arctic is currently experiencing an abrupt climate change event and summer sea ice looks set to vanish by 2035. Most of us fully expect global warming of 2.5 - 4.5°C.

    Media: we could still avoid warming of 1.5°C by 2100. Arctic sea ice? Never heard of it.

    https://twitter.com/ClimateBen/status/1283078208615780353?s=19
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    In just 15 years, the Arctic Ocean may be ice-free in summer, study says - CBS News
    https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/arctic-ocean-climate-change-ice-free-15-years/

    Just 15 years from now, the Arctic Ocean may be functionally ice-free for part of the year, a new study has found. Research published Monday in the journal Nature Climate Change projects that due to vanishing sea ice, the Arctic may start seeing an ice-free period each year as early as 2035.

    "This should be of huge concern to Arctic communities and climate scientists," the study says.

    It's one of the most aggressive timelines for this threshold to be reached and, if correct, is one of the more direct signs that humans are warming the Earth's climate at an even more dramatic pace than expected.

    ...

    The team attributes the model's improved ability to simulate the Arctic climate partly to a better ability to duplicate melt ponds on sea ice. The more melt ponds form on top of ice, the darker the surface of the ice becomes, and in turn, more heat is absorbed. That accelerates Arctic warming and sea ice melt.

    The team notes that their findings of an ice-free Arctic, and how the ice-free conditions developed during the last interglacial, may unravel the long-standing puzzle of why the Arctic was able to get so warm 125,000 years ago, and also supports a fast retreat of future Arctic summer sea ice.

    While climate scientists agree the retreat will be fast, some are skeptical of the accelerated 2035 forecast. That's because the HadGEM3 climate model simulates more warming than the vast majority of other recently upgraded models.


    Sea-ice-free Arctic during the Last Interglacial supports fast future loss
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0865-2

    dl: https://www.nature.com/...vgK5D42KXjApxlJ9DxFNYGDGpXAQ7KKf9w%3D%3D&tracking_referrer=www.cbsnews.com

    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Brazil experiences worst start to Amazon fire season for 10 years | Deforestation | The Guardian
    https://amp.theguardian.com/.../13/brazil-experiences-worst-start-to-amazon-fire-season-for-10-years

    the Amazon has seen the worst start to the fire season in a decade, with 10,136 fires spotted in the first 10 days of August, a 17% rise on last year.

    Analysis of Brazilian government figures by Greenpeace showed fires increasing by 81% in federal reserves compared with the same period last year. Coming a year after soaring Amazon fires caused an international crisis, the new figures raised fears this year’s fire season could be even worse than last year’s.

    “This is the direct result of this government’s lack of an environment policy,” said Romulo Batista, senior forest campaigner for Greenpeace Brasil. “We had more fires than last year.”

    ...

    “This story that the Amazon is going up in flames is a lie and we must combat it with true numbers,” Bolsonaro said, according to Reuters
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Dead Zones: Industrial Agriculture versus Ocean Life
    https://climateandcapitalism.com/2020/08/12/dead-zones-industrial-agriculture-versus-ocean-life/

    The dead zone in the Baltic Sea is larger and in many ways more destructive than the one in the Gulf of Mexico. In 2007, the nine nations that surround the sea adopted an Action Plan “to achieve a Baltic Sea in good environmental status by 2021,” including elimination of eutrophication. They agreed: “By 2010 to halt the degradation of threatened and/or declining marine biotopes/habitats in the Baltic Sea, and by 2021 to ensure that threatened and/or declining marine biotopes/habitats in the Baltic Sea have largely recovered.”[18]

    In 2018, with only three years left to achieve those ambitious goals, a scorecard published by WWF found that “all nine Baltic Sea countries have failed to make good progress,” and that “eutrophication status of most parts of the Baltic Sea remains poor and even deteriorating in some sub-basins.” The overall results were “bleak and unsatisfactory.”[19]

    In WWF’s view, “the Baltic Sea environment remains in a critical state due to lack of efficient delivery of measures and management.” But what their study actually reveals is unwillingness to challenge an agricultural system that, as sociologist Philip McMichael puts it, “is ultimately about combining commodified inputs (seeds, fertilizer, antibiotics, privately-owned genetic materials, pesticides and so on) with land or water or factory farms to produce outputs as ingredients of processed commodities to fuel labor or machinery, without regard for social or ecological consequence.”[20]

    Unless fundamental changes are made to the agro-industrial system that rules today, coastal dead zones will continue to grow and multiply
    KEB
    KEB --- ---
    SHEFIK: tohle v angličtině nedám, nechceš z toho udělat krátký výtah pro tupce?
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    The IPCC scenarios are clear that, without speculative negative emissions schemes on a mass scale, the only way to keep global warming under 1.5C or 2C is for high-income nations to adopt degrowth strategies.

    It's remarkable that this fact gets so little attention.

    https://twitter.com/jasonhickel/status/1294293822013181955?s=19


    2019 Is Green Growth Possible?
    https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13563467.2019.1598964

    The notion of green growth has emerged as a dominant policy response to climate change and ecological breakdown. Green growth theory asserts that continued economic expansion is compatible with our planet’s ecology, as technological change and substitution will allow us to absolutely decouple GDP growth from resource use and carbon emissions. This claim is now assumed in national and international policy, including in the Sustainable Development Goals. But empirical evidence on resource use and carbon emissions does not support green growth theory. Examining relevant studies on historical trends and model-based projections, we find that: (1) there is no empirical evidence that absolute decoupling from resource use can be achieved on a global scale against a background of continued economic growth, and (2) absolute decoupling from carbon emissions is highly unlikely to be achieved at a rate rapid enough to prevent global warming over 1.5°C or 2°C, even under optimistic policy conditions. We conclude that green growth is likely to be a misguided objective, and that policymakers need to look toward alternative strategies.
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Climate Monitoring | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)
    https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/climate-monitoring/
    TADEAS
    TADEAS --- ---
    Antarctica:

    1. melting is accelerating
    2. record melt of 15%: Dec 2019
    3. hottest day ever 18.3°C: Feb 2020
    4. irreversible collapse has begun
    5. rapid deglaciation of West Antarctica set to begin by 2027 with staggering consequences for humanity
    6. sea level rise chaos by 2035

    https://twitter.com/ClimateBen/status/1225740144000536576/photo/1
    https://t.co/eGAaQauOXn
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